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31 Consecutive Outflows From Domestic Equity Funds
So much for the rotation out of bonds. Last week equity domestic funds saw outflows of $1,801MM, which is the 31st consecutive outflow and yet more confirmation that retail is done with stocks. Oddly enough, or not really as everyone by now knows who the only remaining buyers are, as the overlay shows, despite $93 billion of outflows, the stock market is at 2010 highs, courtesy of the Federal Reserve. And contrary to the myth, after a brief respite, the inflows in credit have resumed. Aside from that, any...minute...now... the retail idiots will jump in and pick up the 100x fwd P/E hot grenades. Just you wait.
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Cue the questions and discussions on ETF flows, etc. Happens every time.
I'm not a long term reader here but why shouldn't that be mentioned every time? Mutual funds are a shrinking slice of the pie. Investors are opting, increasingly, for ETFs and the S&P SPY ETF has been hitting new highs lately in terms of total size. I know when I want to buy a basket of stocks I use ETFs--not mutual funds.
I'd love to see proof that the S&P perfomance is being directly driven by Fed actions. Granted that liquidity helps to drive the market higher but it is not a direct interaction. The Fed doesn't go to its broker to buy 1,000,000 S&P futures contracts. The interaction is a lot more complex than that and involves millions of decisions by, hopefully, rational investors.
http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2010/12/10/report-etfs-on-pace-to-...
......"December 08, 2010 --- Exchange-traded fund assets reached $931 billion in November, according to data from State Street Global Advisors (SSgA).
According to SSgA’s November report, ETF assets were up $6.5 billion over the month, or 0.7%, following an identical showing of a 0.7% rise in asset levels the month before.
The SSgA November data showed small-cap and mid-cap assets advanced $2.9 billion and $2.1 billion, respectively, while large-cap fell nearly $3 billion. Growth outperformed value across each size segment.
The top three managers in the U.S. ETF marketplace were BlackRock, State Street, and the Vanguard Group. Collectively, they accounted for approximately 83.7% of the U.S. listed ETF market.".....
OK. But what have the ETF's done in the last 31 weeks?
(Inflows) ~ Into the market.
I haven't looked into this months ETFs inflows yet but if they are like every month from the last year or so there is indeed money flowing into ETFs, however the vast majority has been into fixed income ETFs.
Retail has given up on Casino stock market roulette, money has been flowing out of equity mutual funds and into fixed income ETFs/mutal funds. Of course the retail investor will get slaughtered once again when inflation hits overnight and rips through the fixed income ETF/mutual fund market like wildfire.
Hhhheeeelllloooo, There are just as many inverse or short ETF (including, of course, the leveraged ones).
You can't just say ETF's had inflows and assume that this is overly bullish.
Still money in the market, not an outflow.
LOL, yea, OK, same thing....whatever.
Ok..... The post imply an outflow of cash/liquidity coming out of stocks.
Money into etf's is an inflow of money/liquidity ..... Sorry. Even if its short at some point it will move around the casino.... Sorry, most of the money is not short. Why would it the markets going up.... And if it is ..its getting blowtorched.
....."The data showed that the top three ETFs in dollar-volume traded for the month were the SPDR S&P 500 [SPY], PowerShares QQQ [QQQQ], and iShares Russell 2000 [IWM]. The top three ETFs in terms of assets for the month were the SPDR S&P 500 [SPY], SPDR Gold Shares [GLD], and iShares MSCI Emerging Markets [EEM]"....
I didn't say that most of the money is short or in inverse ETFs. If they were, we'd have had a crash of epic proportions. The truth is that most ignorant SOB's don't even understand shorting and or the idea of profiting on declines with the inverse ETFs.
That said, your horseshit blanket statement that ETFs had 'inflows' is purposely deceptive as at least a decent portion of that 'inflow' was in direct opposition of the bull ETFs. So, any 'inflows' have to be mitigated by their directly inverse ETF cousins applying equal downward pressure.
Furthermore, any subsequent 'inflows' into ETF could damn sure have larger proportions of money toward the inverse funds.
Anyway you cut it, saying there are inflows into ETFs as a bullish notion is a crock of shit.
Can you fucking read..... Read what you first posted. Read what I posted, your wrong ( ETF's = Inflows/liquidity ) - 6 BILLION per month pouring into ETF's.
So someone is short right now ... ???? What Silver ?
Someone reads this and thinks the money/liquidity is leaving the stock market, no. Running away ....not.
......"December 08, 2010 --- Exchange-traded fund assets reached $931 billion in November, according to data from State Street Global Advisors (SSgA).
According to SSgA’s November report, ETF assets were up $6.5 billion over the month, or 0.7%, following an identical showing of a 0.7% rise in asset levels the month before.
....."The data showed that the top three ETFs in dollar-volume traded for the month were the SPDR S&P 500 [SPY], PowerShares QQQ [QQQQ], and iShares Russell 2000 [IWM]. The top three ETFs in terms of assets for the month were the SPDR S&P 500 [SPY], SPDR Gold Shares [GLD], and iShares MSCI Emerging Markets [EEM]"....
Thanks for the data. It looks like the retail investor is alive and well. I think these ZH outflow posts are more indicative of the move away from traditional broker-controlled mutual funds, to a more modern approach using ETF's. $1B out vs $6B in is $5B a huge inflow no matter how you slice it.
I'm sure Robert Piss-Ant-i on CNBCbs will be ALL over this YET again.
Not!
The stupidest idea on earth is that
retail switched from mutual funds to etfs.
You'd have to be a moron to believe
this.
Its been the talk in the pits (chicago) for 3-4 years ... Whats left of it.
Here is a preemptive Permabull Droid Notice:
Piss off, Robo/Harry! Spare this forum of your piffle.
Hairy Ballsack will be along now to tell all how equity inflows are higher now than ever, and his econometric model that he has trademarked shows unemployment in the U.S. will fall below 0.06% by next June.
Oh, and wages will rocket 80% YoY, while Amazon goes to $3000, Obama & the GOP will pass Universal Single Payer healthcare together which will help health stocks, Google will buy out North Korea and prosperity will break out over the Korean Peninsula, and rainbows, unicorns and skittles will flow freely from everyones' ass.
Of the thousands of posters here.
There only 3 - 4 bulls.
Surely you can tolerate that. Especially since the market remains in an uptrend.
When the market gets crushed and if you still find us bullish, then you have good reason to "junk" us...
LOL.....
Bulls are fine, if incredibly stupid. Harry is a *literal* professional troll. He is basing his career off of writing about the psychology of the "permabear", as if you could actually call people who you met no more than a year ago during the middle of this DEPRESSION permabears.
Call us back after the fucking depression is over and see if we are still bearish. Come back 20 years after that. If we never stopped being bearish, even as things got better, THEN AND ONLY THEN could you call anyone a "permabear".
I mean, it's like walking into a house where someone is sleeping and labeling that person as comatose.
Also, measured in gold, your stocks have been crushed. Sorry, but that is a fact.
How about doomer ?
I'm up 80% off a mining stock(gold) in 8 weeks.... Not a bad trade.
Did you post it here a 8 weeks ago, if not FAIL.
If so then crow.
Yes I did. And got torn up when I made that call also .....
And just posted a few days ago buy DB, JPM, DRYS, JOBS ect .....
I went back and found 1 im not going back for all. I have posted about all of this more than 1 time ...
by Spalding_Smaileson Tue, 08/31/2010 - 18:35
#556538
Hope your right.
Bought Research In Motion
$42.60
"Also, measured in gold, your stocks have been crushed. Sorry, but that is a fact."
You might want to verify that opinion by looking at $indu:$gold
Since March of 09 it's been pretty flat with a minor edge to gold, though not a smack down like you imply.
Silver, on the other hand...... :D
Bears need to learn how to hook up with the fastest climber. Banks are taking off as we speak!
Spalding is NOT a bull...he is an idiot. So that makes 2-3 of you :)
I can tolerate you just fine, Robo...save when you post in disingenuous ways. Example, your bank call. I'd like you to be honest at a moment like that. Banks are not in an uptrend. They will now be used by the HFTs in an attempt to move the already ridiculously overbought S&P. Banks, most of them right now anyway, should have bars installed in the windows, converting them into prisons for efficiency sake. Ergo, as banks move up, we have our confirmation on about 90% of what we read and share here...the destruction of the credibility of our markets. You follow there, Robo?
But hey...post away, man.
CDad your a tool.
I taught you about dollar denominated debt, china inflation, deflation .... your a true fool.
Your post continue to teach nothing. I have torn apart many of your post a few months back. It just got sooooo old, very fast. Please, turn off the tv & read something.
Carry on ...
Rimm at 42, X at 44, Mobil at 58 ....
Whats your money making call for us all... BUY GOLD ..... dudope du ,,,,da.... Buy the dip.... Stupid fucking nothing, shut your pie hole you moron, please add something.
This is the first time you and I have posted directly to one another, Spalding. You have torn apart nothing. And since you chose an idiot character to represent yourself on this site, it makes perfect sense...your response.
Carry on then. I'm sure many of the members here breathlessly await your next post.
As for my call...sell upside Spalding calls....
Nice non answer for the crowd.
Your true colors ..... Tool in pink tights like the little bitch that you are.....
Carry on.
Non answer? I just answered you. You suggested we have been engaged in some argument. Never spoken to you before, Spalding. And since I think I have you sized up just fine, call my trade "the other side of Spalding's" trade.
For example, I think your gold miners are going to be quite severely bitch-slapped in the coming days, so please let me know when you are selling.
As for pink tights, disturbing. I was not going to go to the "transsexual" level of comment, but I cannot imagine what would have made you think of writing that comment...unless it was something on the floor of your room there, down in mom's basement.
Perhaps a walk in the fresh air, Spalding?
I have 1 miner up 75% as we speak .... I can wait.
Really, Spalding. It sounds very much like it is time for a break, a rice ball and a walk in the fresh air. But don't worry...we can take it all up once again.
Can you ... will your silver profits slip through those pink nails as the dollar continues her climb.
All the doomers, hyperinflationist like Gonzo, all wrong. The thurst for dollars continues.
A monkeyhammer for CDAD.... Lol'
My gold and silver positions are all sold, Spalding. I did not get the top...but I will not be tasting the downward vol, either. I will be buying your weakness...when you puke up your miners as your imagined massive gains start to slip away from you. I am bullish these things, but not currently long. The dollar is moving higher...we agree here.
I was short 30 year T bills until today. As those are bid back up in price, your gold will be slapped around like a middle school miscreant back in the day. You will crack and sell...and I will buy...and then reshort long T bills again. This is my trade specifically.
Now, the only thing that remains is to figure out the contorted nature of your call, which seems to be long gold miners, short silver, and sure that everyone on ZH is wrong. Nice. Nice fucking retarded response, buddy.
Cdad boot stomping idiot Spalding...
Another post filled with nothing.
I have laid out my picks (early).....
DB, JPM, DRYS, JOBS ..... A few more bitch.
HOLI, AMCN ...
Make some picks now ....for everyone to track over the next 8 weeks ???
I sold 30 years today Lol'..... weeeeeeeeeeeeeee .... make an early call for all ..... Or, or keep your pie hole shut.
If you are too stupid to understand that my trade is in the previous post, then I have no idea what to tell you. Maybe, wear a hockey helmet throughout your day, for safety sake.
I did not ask for your picks, by the way. I asked you to tell me when you were selling your gold miners.
As for 8 weeks from now...you'll likely have a new user ID before then, so what is the point?
Take a walk, Spalding. Seriously. In through the nose...and out through the mouth...you'll be fine.
Pin Drop .... Thought so.
No calls, nothing new.Bla bla bla .....
I can sell it if gold keeps dropping, i'll let it pull back to 50% profit or it rockets higher ...Lol'
I posted my picks so I could rub it in your face later. Lol'
I was posting on the old zero hedge also, i'm not going anywhere, same id, same everything ....
All of your post are filled with garbage polluting the mind of the uninformed ...
Next.
A helmet and a mouth guard, probably. Look buddy, your stupidity has hemoraged out of you, and now your maturity, as well. Quit already. Go bother Robo.
Your so dumb.
Everyone is reading your post and mine. Who's the dope with the helmet, son.
5-6 post filled with gibber gabber... No calls ( beforehand ) so we all can follow.
Just more after the fact calls like most....
Maturity ? Like your verbal assault at Mr Lennon Hendrix last night you fuck.... Lol' .....
CDAD everyone knows your a moron, change your name ... C'imA'moron.
spawlding
So you schooled people you have never directly posted to?
Here's a little sumthin sumthin...........
You're (your) a true fool.
Listen,
Im not going back in time trust this fool, fine..
I have told Cdad more than once to turn off the tv and read a book, sorry its true ...
I have posted many times about dollar denominated debt ( before anyone ), China inflation, train/truck traffic numbers, deflation in the securitization market, and many other post. And a few picks.
What the fuck has this bum brought to the table, nothing.
Follow both of our post over the next few months.
I don't care if Robo is bull or bear. He just needs to step it up with bouncing titty pics.
+ 36-24-36
I don't junk posters. I have never junked anyone. I read all your posts. You post timely info., but you seem to be highly biased. I currently have no position in stocks, but I fear the reckless policies being implemented to pump stocks higher. Yes, stocks have had a nice run since March of 2009. I participated in the run (albeit to a smaller extent than you). However, the federal debt level also had a nice "run" in the past few years. So has the growth in the Fed's balance sheet. I hope these fiscal policies don't end in disaster.
Good luck.
BUt Robot you were bearish on gold, you promised us gold would go down, you promised
LOL.....??
if the market was based on sound fundamentals yes we would tolerate you. not when it's based on complete bullshit being passed for roses.
It's ALWAYS been based on bullshit. Read Jesse Livermore. You think the markets have only become corrupt and rigged recently? No, they've been this way since the dawn of time. As a little fish, if you want to make money, you have to figure out what the big fish is doing and follow him. Stocks that are high go higher. Read William O'Neill.
rut, roh, rorge, here goes the neighborhood ;-)
- Ned
...yes...a foil is needed...
I would like to take a stab at the vitriol directed towards Robo and Harry Wanger.
My feeling is that you guys are aware that there is a problem with the system, but in true Chuck Prince fashion, you're more than happy to ride it while the music is playing. Unfortunately, this may only help perpetuate the kick the can mentality pervasive in both Washington and Wall Street. So while no one wants to put on their big boy pants and solve problems, you guys are more than happy to get while the getting is good. In a libertarian sense, you probably feel obligated to partake in the system. Others, like most on the list, would rather see the true rot at the core excised so that we can get on with the business of a true recovery.
Why not do both? There is no reason to miss out on profit opportunities. The ignorant investor will listen to CNBC, buy AAPL and NFLX, and make a killing. Meanwhile ZH sits around and complains, missing out on profits. Take the profits, but call your congressman and tell them the current tax cut "compromise" is BS that's bad for our country and deficit. Demand they vote against it. Oh wait, you probably don't do that part either.
Liquidations in front of 20%, 200 point SPX rally confirms this is/was/likely always will be "dumb money"
I can just hear the stadium barkers calling out,
"Get your 100x fwd P/E hot grenades here, get em while there hot!"
retail idiot: "I'll take all you got!"
It's not retail. Remember, 31 consecutive outflows.
It's all POMO and HFT.
-$91BB (outflow by the public)
+1000BB (monetization by the Fed)
------------------------------------
= i wonder why we're at 2010 and not at all-time highs!
We're slowly working our way to it, just need another 50 trillion in POMO.
Do we really have to have a positive inflow before the total collapse? I guess that would only make sense. Poooor sheeple.
This market is doomed. Going down, down, down.
Meanwhile, ECRI Leading Index at -2.4%, up from -11% in July. Just wanted to continue reporting that since it was here every day until it started to go up.
Just buy the fucking dip, master-baiter-fade!
How much did the federal debt level and the Fed's balance sheet "go up" since July? How much did they "go up" since the stock market nadir in March of 2009?
It is good that you made money. We all want to make money. Many of us also hope these fiscal policies don't end in disaster.
Just pointing out that Roubini et al. were all up in arms that this would point to a double dip. It didn't. It hasn't. It won't. Why is it every time something going up is "wrong" or "false" or a "fraud" but that same indicator on the way down was "this won't end well"? Same indicator, right?
But it hasn't "gone up". It's just less down.
Bears like to present divergent indicators unless they point up........
Less down is up. You should've paid attention in calculus.
Who among us knew the massive extent to which the Fed would give out access to nearly free money. If the Fed hadn't been so generous, maybe a double dip would have happened. The Fed's actions have been the ultimate trump card.
I am always glad to listen to both sides of the argument. I just don't like hearing bullish talk when we all know the Fed is kiting the market. The market action is not a reflection of organic economic growth apart from massive stimulus. This market does not represent fair and open price discovery. It is a rigged casino. That being said, I wish you good luck. I hope you (and everyone else here) make some money. Lord knows the banksters are making more than their fair share.
I don't know why you're in bonds or fixed income considering all the monetizations happening on a daily basis. Did you buy gold, silver, food and oil yet? The purest form of savings is buying future consumption in advance. You're going to need money, food and fuel.
I have enough capital socked away in insured munis. The tax-free interest provided by them exceeds my cost of living (I paid the house off and I have zero debt). I do own a decent supply of silver, some gold, and a robust supply of MREs (if there are disruptions to food supplies). MREs have a long shelf life.
I hope these risky fiscal measures don't end badly. I am apprehensive. If The Ben Bernank feels the need to go on '60 Minutes' and tell everyone he is 100% confident of success, that makes me worry. I think doing that interview was a bad idea.
Good luck.
I was thinking insured munis seem like a good deal, too. What's to lose? I'm currently reading David Swensen's Unconventional Success which says to put 30% into T bills but I am spooked by all this talk of the debt eventually being worth nothing. Also the fact that the PDs make so much money off it really pisses me off.
What I still don't get is how gold is fitting into the Apocalypse Now scenario where society implodes and...you take out your little tin of gold to buy eggs? How's that going to work?
My 13yo told me today he learned in science that all the gold mined since the dawn of humanity will fit into a room 60 ft by 60 ft. People who want a return to the gold standard, how's there going to be enough?
Muni's are getting killed right now. Down 2% yesterday. I would be very cautious. Personally I only have a minor position in them anymore, and may liquidate the remainder. If the tax cut crap passes in its current horrific form, I think debt markets could get spooked.
zero people i have talked to think munis are a good idea!
i'm thinking to pay down some of our mortgage. i don't think our apt will go up in price, nor do i think it will go down. that way i know we at least won't be paying so much interest. it could sort of substitute for the bonds part of the "asset allocation" scheme advised in the current book i'm reading.
thanks for mentioning it, but you seem to have missed the point that the ECRI Leading Index has been in negative territory since the end of May. That's a very long time to be negative.
and no doubt discounted by your superior in-depth b.s.
how does it compare with when the POMO operations started? I am not sure.. just wondering.
1.8b outflow last week, 7-9b unflow tomorrow alone via POMO.
In other words, the BLACKHAWK will not be denied, the public is bringing a squirt gun to a water fight and Ben's got a fire hose!
If you really are sincere, and not pumping, do yourself the favor of looking at the data Charles Hugh Smith has compiled.
He has a great scale showing a conservative deleveraging by businesses, consumers and local units of government of 14 to 17 trillion through 2013, barring any further crises.
If true, I'd think it's Bernanke with the water pistol.
to repeat:
SPX market cap ~$10.2T
$102B outflow will equal 1% of assets
Just a small steady stream of rebalancing activity.
US equity muts (all) ~$5T and half of that is owned by the wealthiest 1%.
Marked to market right?
Does that market cap include this week's creation units?
By the way, I have repeatedly stated that I have plenty PM investments. Same with HarryWanger.
The difference between all you guys and us is this:
The economy is improving, stocks are going up, and gold is likely to be dragged up as well.
When the economy turns down, stocks will front run it at least 6 - 9 months in advance. And there will be clues, like financials and retail breaking down first before the broad market does. If and when that happens, we will turn bearish, and also gold is likely to go down with stocks.
I often make fun of the perma-gold shills, only because they have "Cramerized" the gold market by saying "buy, buy, buy" no matter what, even if the market is extended. Never, I mean, never, do they recommend waiting before buying.
John Doody had the sense last week to warn gold bulls of the overextension. He was about the only one who did.
"the economy" is improving only if you believe the support is never ending.
You pull the support - pop rates and your recovery will be in hospice care for a week maybe.
It's amazing what the perma-shills can become accustomed to.
But then we know Benny and Timmie know best they have it 100% under control.
and yet master trader that you are you still have the PM?
A capital structure (economy) that is a product of underconsumption (producing more than you consume and reinvesting the surplus) is sustainable for perpetuity. An capital structure that is a result of decades of steadily increased indebtedness (see the trade defecit as a key indicator of this), or overconsumption, is unsustainable. Look around you. Starbucks, chilis, applebees, home-depot, best-buy, malls, strip-malls etc etc. All of it is unsustainable. The manufacturing base (productive capacity) is hollowed out and exported overseas. Not so sure why this is so hard to understand, but the US economy is NOT coming back. It is toast for the next 10-20 years while the capital structure (including the labor market) of the economy is rebalanced toward productivity vs consumption. I'll buy the DOW again at some point in the future. But right now, the companies that you will want to own don't even exist yet for the most part.
I get the impression from your post that you are short term bullish, long term bearish? Fine for a day trader I guess, but for most people, the buy and hold option is best which is why long term fundamentals are more important than short term ups and downs in the market for the laymen. The dollar is in a secular bear market for fundamental reasons and is undergoing an intentional program of debasement. That is all you need to know about gold.
Open up a 5 year chart on the dollar. 2005 - 85
Today - 80..... What crash after all the bailout,pomo,swap lines with eu.. About 14 trillion in bailouts/backstops?
Dollar denominated debt is going to carry the dollar a long, long way. Its global, finance, forex,oil, businesses, countries issue dollar denominated debt every day.
Manufacturing in US ? Funny my buddy does 10 million with cat alone.
The market does not care about unemployment ( see cats,bidu,apple ect ....)
You can make lots of cash ( if you buy low, really simple ) When the news stocks are bad, boom buy. You still must do your homework on any trade/bet. I lost a ton with my VXX bet .... a ton.
PS- I dont use charts/fib- I go in and out of stocks after 1 or 2 months.
Not ripping on you sir. Just pointing a few things out. The highways are packed with trucks cars every day ( in chicago ). Action.
No market moves in straight lines, but the long term trends are clear. I have a great deal of respect for people that can ride the waves of volatility, but I'm more of a long term trend kind of guy.
If you bought 1 oz of gold in 1971, sold it and bought the DOW in 1980, sold that and bought the Nikkei in 1990, sold that and bought gold in 1999... You would have turned $35 into 166k in 5 trades. Hindsight is 20/20, but it is pretty obvious to me when you look at long-term economic cycles, that it is easy and safe to be inside the secular trend. So will the DOW go up tomorrow, or some stock I don't care about and don't know the fundamentals of? Sure, why not. Who cares. I know the end game already, and that is what I'm invested for. IMO, most short-term traders are gamblers. Long-term, forward looking investing on fundamentals is the best way (again IMO) to manage wealth.
Your 100% correct. You can't buy and hold. Most people should buy index funds.
But if you read enough and study markets look at US Steel. Once I seen a small uptick in car sales, cat on fire I started hunting around ( boom us steel ). It was at $ 70 before april cat was not even busy yet .... So I jumped on it at 44.RIMM dropped from 80 down, down, down. I started to watch it at 50 they had 2 billion in cash and new products in the pipeline, that one was easy ......
Look at a 5 year chart on (ArcelorMittal- Huge global player in steel MCap. 53 Billion )
It traded at $100 a few years back, today 35. This is another easy call. With china,india,brazil booming in the future ....
JPM & Deutsche Bank the dreaded financials, blood in the water, time to buy, germany is booming .... Sure it does not seem safe but when it does DB will be at $80 again.
But its still a bet/trade.
My point is that you CAN buy and hold, but within long-term cycles. For example, the last gold bull started with demand in the 1960's, but wasn't visible in the price action till the gold window closed in 1971. After that, you could have bought gold and held it for ten years and watched your portfolio go up 25x while sleeping. Once it was safe to get back into paper again, there were other opportunities to buy and hold for decades. The current gold bull began with demand in the late 90's and will probably end in 2015-2020. I'm interested in buy and hold strategies that don't take constant oversight. Your investment strategies seem to be based on good logic, but need constant policeing, and research. You are looking at much shorter cycles than me. Might be better gains going that route, but more risk and and a lot more work as well!
I would go with index funds then.
With gold if you bought in 1980 you waited a long, long time for break even. Thats the risk of buying at the top.
Why would you buy gold in 1980? That was the time to sell. I'm not a gold-bug. Gold is just a tool. A tool that is highly relevant to today's world. I'll sell my gold eventually. I'll probably buy stocks with it. In whatever is the next thing that people want and need. Most likely it will be commodity production based on the rise of the emerging markets and the increased livings standards/consumption that comes with that. The industrial revolution of the third world is the sea-change event that is the primary trend of modern history. That is the difference between speculating and investing. An investor looks at value and at long-term supply/demand fundamentals. A speculator is riding the waves of politics and short-term trends. Buy the shares of a bankrupt bank in 2008 after the crash? Sure, you would have made a lot of money in hindsight. But nothing changes the fact that those banks are insolvent - were then, and are now. Dangerous IMO. I do like the idea of that kind of speculation for quick gains with a portion of my money. But I would never bet my whole wealth on political events (like the bank bailouts) as opposed to long-term market fundamentals. Gold is easy. All you need to know about gold is that the USG is the issuer of the WRC, they are bankrupt, and they are printing money like mad. Literally, that is all you need to know. The gold story is not about gold at all. It is about the corruption and destruction of it's competing monetary tools (fiat currencies). Easy as pie. No chartology, no headaches, no scanning the news headlines (though I suppose I do that anyway). All you have to do is learn simple economic principals that have always and will always be true, and then put yourself in the right trend. I watched gold drop from near 1000 to 750 in 2008. Didn't lose a wink of sleep because I understood the fundamentals. The ups and downs on the way to the end game are just noise when you use economic law to peer into the future. What is the future? A return to some form of an international gold standard with gold at a much higher valuation. This is obvious - just look at a ten year chart of the dollar and of gold. The simple interpretation of those charts is this: The productive world (asia and other emerging markets) does not see the $ as a store of wealth, so they use the dollar as a proxy to buy gold. Only the western mind has forgotten the meaning and value of gold as a store of wealth since the US has not had a currency collapse since the civil war. The rest of the world? Strong cultural affinity to gold and a recent history of currency abuse. So gold will be money again (at least the store of value, if not the medium of exchange function of money) because the emerging powers of the world (the wealth producing economies) say it is money! No brainer here... Buy what a billion people want before they buy it. Easy peezy!
Global finance/forex/ ect can't operate off a 'gold standard'. Only fiat.
Why buy gold in 80 ???? Not me but i'm sure a bunch of people thought it would go up higher, and the people who did jump in late they waited, and waited ..... 15 years or so... Bad, bad trade/bet.
Most everyone thought after 2006-07 it was game over everything dropping, bailout, backstops, trillions.
But whats going on now ? Things are getting better, have been every day a little better. If you forget about the numbers and look around you can see things picking up .... We sold the house of saud 80 billion in new weapons a few months ago ( per wikileaks they want us to take out iran ) that oil/dollar thing is not going away anytime soon. Dollar denominated debt insures a bid/floor/churn underneath the dollar. The dollar is not going anywhere unless they come up with a " new deal " and at the very least we will be at the top of the new list again our standing today in global finance insures this. The dollar web is global - look at the inflation we are exporting china, what can they really do, nothing.
Global finance CAN operate off of a gold standard. At the right valuation, gold, which is the only commodity in the world that is not consumed, can provide all the liquidity that the world needs to facilitate international trade. It is fiat, which is being rapidly devalued world-wide due to structural deficits (governments consuming more wealth than their home economies can produce) that is unsustainable. Economics 101 - you can't consume more than you produce. Unfortunately, the entire western world is caught in this dilema - their governments destroy more wealth (on wars and welfare) than their home economies can produce. Gold = fiscal discipline and enforces a return to economic realities as the final settlement of international trade surpluses/deficits. Gold is acting as it always has, balancing international trade as it flows from unproductive to productive nations. This is what the long term charts of the dollar vs gold show clearly. Look who the buyers are. The producers of wealth. Look who the sellers are. The indebted western nations.
"But whats going on now ? Things are getting better, have been every day a little better. If you forget about the numbers and look around you can see things picking up "
Short term noise.
"The dollar web is global - look at the inflation we are exporting china, what can they really do, nothing."
Or... They can continue to do exactly what they ARE doing. Increasing their gold imports by 500% a year - demanding REAL wealth in return for all the productivity that they are exporting. The dollar only has meaning or relevance as a currency so long as it is useful as a proxy for aquiring REAL wealth, which is always TANGIBLE assets (gold, oil, commodities etc). The charts I mentioned above (gold/dollar) are clear signs that the emerging markets are forcing a return to an international gold standard. Do you think that the wealth producers of the world will continue to trade real wealth (productivity) for paper IOUs forever?
"We sold the house of saud 80 billion in new weapons a few months ago ( per wikileaks they want us to take out iran ) that oil/dollar thing is not going away anytime soon."
Again, the dollar is only useful so long as it is a proxy to be used to aquire REAL wealth (tangible assets). I highly recommend reading FOFOA and learning about the LBMA and the oil/dollar/gold connection. The Saudis only use the dollar as a proxy to buy gold. When the LBMA and the US runs out of gold, it will no longer be useful to the Saudis. The Saudis have never and will never trade their oil in the ground (their national heritage and their family heirloom) for mere paper IOUs. Something that few people understand is that the US dollar has NEVER not been backed by gold. It is just WHO it was redeemable to that changed. In 1933 the little guy was disenfranchised. In 1971, the international community was cut off. But the LBMA was established purely as a proxy for the oil states to trade $ for gold. When US gold runs out, so does all US/Saudi alliances. The Petro-dollar is doomed.
Really a bunch of ... what if's on your part. Like I said before 14 trillion in bailouts/backstops and in 5 years the dollar drops from 85 to 80 so on this timeline with all the others dropping we have 20-30 more years. Look at the EU, UK, Japan a bus wreck.
What is the size of the global derivative/securatization market ?? Over 1 Quadrillion. How is physical gold going to back forex, global finance ? It cant. Thats why they moved off the gold standard in the first place/ forex markets, letters of credit for global trade ? How and when will this transition take place/back to gold, physical right,nooot paper ?
http://www.financial-edu.com/history-of-credit-derivatives.php
All this has been built globally in dollars .. ^^^
The house of saud' needs the power of the us to keep its place in power, why not just stop trading dollars now? They cant.
Getting back to dollar denominated debt, if all this debt is owed in dollars, how can you extract yourself from this global web ????
Any your thesis that "its good that gold is built upon a mountain of paper" . really ? Sit back and really think about that ....
The Impact of Derivatives on the Gold Market
..."In the long
run, yes these derivative positions will have to come to maturity or will be
closed out but in the short and medium term they created a bubble of
accelerated supply to market. This badly distorted the annual supply/demand
balance and the short to medium term turned out to last for more than a
painful decade, during which the gold price came under persistent pressure.".....
...."Note the marked increase in output from North
America and Australia during the 1980s. All this increased production, as it
rolled off the drawing board and into d’ore trucks, required project financing.
At that stage, US Dollar interest rates were comparatively high. The
differential between the cost of borrowing dollars and borrowing gold was
wide enough to convince the miners of the wisdom of the gold loan – the
original prototype derivative product. The miners borrowed gold from a bullion
bank, sold it to raise capital with the intention of paying it back through future
production from the developed mine. Once financed through metal borrowing,
this new output was subject to price risk, which the miner elected to managed
through increasingly sophisticated bullion base derivatives. This created a
very ready market for a whole range of derivative products for basic forwards
through to vanilla and then exotic options and any combination of these
products that one might care to imagine."......
..."Back in 1994, after following what I called the derivative revolution throughout
the 1980s, I commented on this very issue. …”what may
benefit an individual mining company does not necessarily augur well for the
market as a whole…. On occasions, producer hedging will not only influence
the price, but may even act as a major price determinant.”....
China's gold thurst? Well ya, shes waaaaaaaaay behind the usa( thousands of tons). What are we taking from europe for the dollars via swap lines, maybe ben bernack is asking for gold ???
Also, most people do not know anything about gold,care about gold.. ..... If/when the market drops for gold /silver (pull up long term chart they always do, many currency issues/ defaults around the globe now and over the last 20-30 years so today is no different the sun always comes up)
Whos the buyer ? Only gold bugs or the coin shop, hope your first in line.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gk5aRIz17fk
Derivatives are only worth the physical assets that back them - hence mortgage backed securities are only worth the value of the underlying assets. So the notional dollar value of most of these derivatives will vanish like smoke (deflation). You mention the 1 Quadrillion figure. Yes. This is hyperinflation. The dollar is already hyperinflated. I use the term a little differently than most economists. Picture a bankrun when we were on the classical gold standard. Once you have printed far more claims to gold than you actually have in the vault, it is AT THIS POINT that the currency issued by the bank is actually "hyperinflated". The scam can go on for a long time - it is the revelation of insolvency that leads to a cashing in of the deposit slips and reveals the fact of too many paper claims to gold in the vault. So the "hyperinflation" is actually a prior event - the currency collapse is based on the revelation of insolvency (crisis in confidence). The Derivative bubble you mention is just an example of dollar hyperinflation - the fact that there is far more "notional dollar wealth" than there is actual assets behind it. Deflation is a just the other side of the hyperinflationary coin in the sense that I use the term. Bernankes goal is to create enough inflation to raise asset values, stopping defaults, and allowing "value to maturity" (in nominal - not real terms) to take place. This course of action also has the added benefit of lowering real wages in the US, which will make the US competative at exports and will simultaneously devalue the national debt and allow the USG to continue its profligate spending. You think that the rest of the world is going to continue to save in a currency whose managers are bent on a program of devaluation? The Saudis will extricate themselves from dollar hegemony in due time. It is not like there are not other alternatives to the dollar now. Gold for one. Currencies issued by other solvent governments for another. There are other actors on the world stage who will be happy to provide the Saudis with military protection. And the US's military might is in steady decline (of course) because the US is bankrupt!
What makes you think that China is so far behind us in gold? What makes you think that the US government actually has the 8000 tons they say they have? I don't believe that they do. I don't believe that the west has the ~30,000 tons that collectively they supposedly hold. Much of it has been sold into the market to bail out the LBMA (gold derivative scheme) over the years. Brown Bottom anyone? There is a lot of literature on the subject.
Who is the buyer? Where have you been for the last ten years. The buyers are foreign central banks, and awake people all over the globe like myself. In the 1980s is was the French and the Saudis who drove up the gold price. Today there are far more players who understand the gold/oil connection and see gold rightly as a resource with national strategic import. There are so many foreign central banks who are itching to cast off dollar hegemony - how to do it without rocking the boat is their dillema. Eventually the boat will be rocked. And yes, I am first in line - In front of a billion people. Sounds to me like you will be last.
An interesting antecdote. Murray Rothbard relates in his book What Has Government Done to Our Money, that in 1971, when Nixon closed the gold window, keynesians and Freidmenites alike predicted that once gold had been "cut loose" from the dollar, it would drop to a theoretical industrial value of $8 per oz. Hahaha! That one always gives me a chuckle. I sense that you are falling into the same mental trap, unable to understand the gold is money and always will be. It cannot be divorced from the international monetary system. Even now, it is functioning as it always has - the international balancer of trade deficits/surpluses. This is why gold is flowing from West to East. You think like a westerner. You think like a statist - with your faith in government and in the paper money they issue. As I said before. Whatever idol you worship is the one that kills you. I for one, am putting my money on what I believe will be the winning side. It seems you are as well. Good luck!
I should add, that we are in a period of extreme instability in the financial system as a whole. Never before has there been such high risk of insolvency and counterparty risk in the banking and brokerage system. Having gold/silver outside the banking system (no GLD or SLV) is a very good idea. What good are paper gains if you can't collect? Hyperinflation is a political and economic certainty for the US, the UK, the Yen, and likely the Euro as well. If we have any severe monetary dislocations, bank holidays and capital controls/liquidity issues on all the major exchanges are a certainty. This adds to the risk of even intelligent investment decisions. What are fantastic stock gains in dollar terms worth if you have no way to get those dollars from your brokerage, to your bank, and into a form of tangible wealth that you can hold in your hand? That is the danger that the western world faces today. We are in the end game of the post-bretton woods dollar based monetary system. Not a good time to be surfing stocks except as a speculative gamble IMO. Those things won't be there when you need them the most.
I was a huge doomer from 2002-07 followed EJ Itulip thank god.( also had a friend whos pops is head of global investment for william blair - he gave a heads up also ....) Moved out of debt and went on lockdown.
Just started trading 6-8 months ago again.
My call is the can has been kicked & will be kicked again if needed.
If I had 500,000 in cash I would have 20% in gold.
The last 2 years has been the same, not a good time but look how that worked out. Cat at 30, now at 90 is cat going under/anywhere ??? Apple, IBM ...China,India,USA,EU all want the same thing. Status quo -
The shadow banking system/securitization market will have us in asset deflation for a very long time at least 3-6 years.
"My call is the can has been kicked & will be kicked again if needed.
If I had 500,000 in cash I would have 20% in gold."
Agreed, the can will be kicked. As for gold... We are in the end game of the gold bull. The next 4-5 years are going to be the most spectacular phases of this market. Check out the previous gold bull - you will see that the last doubling took place in the final three months. Or look at a chart of the .com bubble, or the housing bubble, or any other mania. Not only is gold the place to be right now - it is going to go to the moon in the next few years as history ryhmes again. 500k in cash 20% in gold... Pshhh... I'm 100% monetary metals because it is the number one place to be. All else is just noise. This is the greatest bull market, perhaps in the history of the world, and we are just finally getting to the end stages where the parabolic gains are going to be made. This is where people who understand business cycles, boom/busts, manias and asset bubbles strike it rich. Why would I dilly-dally around by owning shares of failed or duibous business models when I could be in the middle of the most spectacular bull in history? Not like this hasn't happened before. There is nothing nuts about 8k an oz gold (the 1980 high adjusted for TRUE inflation - not the manipulated CPI-U). Just the way the world works. I'm in for the sure thing, I'm in for the kill.
Gold has been built upon a mountain of derivatives since the mid 80's all the gold paper and futures....
Gold at this price is built on a mountain of paper. Whats the true floor ?
"Gold has been built upon a mountain of derivatives since the mid 80's all the gold paper and futures...."
Exactly!!! That is what is so incredibly bullish about gold! Most of the world's "gold owners" hold paper IOUs and not the real thing. That isn't bearish, that is extremely bullish, because it means that gold should be much much higher based on EXISTING supply demand fundamentals since most of the supply is illusionary.
The real question, is whether or not the gold derivatives bubble (paper gold IOUs) will burst under the pressure of demand for actual physical. Of course it will! This is just classical fractional reserve bullion banking, but on an international scale. In other words, it is nothing new, it is just a bank run right out of the text books, but on a global scale since we now have global (insolvent) central banks (the FED). Nothing has changed. Gold is still money. Banks still go bankrupt through leverage. It is only the scale of the situation that has changed due to the global cartelization of the banking industry.
"Gold at this price is built on a mountain of paper. Whats the true floor?"
Well... The equilibrium price (all fiat money backed 100% by gold) is about 55k per oz (in todays dollars). Will we ever see that return to equilibrium? I don't know. But I'm willing to settle for half ;)
One thing is for sure. The collapse of the current monetary system will be spectacular and it is very over-due. If you take a hard look at monetary history, you will see that change is the norm, not the exception. The US (and by extention, the world once they became tied to the dollar) has gone through wild changes to their monetary system at regular periods (1913, 1922, 1933, 1944, 1971). Overdue for another change :)
I'm just positioning myself for what appears to me to be inevitable based on a thorough study of economic and monetary history. Gold isn't magic. It's just a tool. Paper money isn't magic either. It is just a tool. A tool that is failing due to structural deficits. I believe I'm in the right place - I own physical metal, not paper promises.
I should add that "deflation" is extremely bullish for gold. What does "deflation" mean? It means the destruction of debt based assets, bankruptcy, insolvency - the end of all economic activity based on credit and indebtedness. In short, it means the destruction of most of the US economy. Deflation means the end of the US government, the end of Social Security, the end of all the socialist welfare programs etc etc. It means the end of the american business model. Gold will do extremely well in a deflationary environment. But we will not have deflation, because deflation = bankruptcy. The US gov will not come out and say "we are bankrupt, we are not going to give you your social security paycheck". Deflation is an economic reality, but a political impossibility. They will print the money to cover all debts, and transfer the insolvency of individuals, cities, municipalities, cities, states, corporation, pension funds, socialistic welfare programs (like medicare, medicaid, welfare, healthcare, food-stamps etc etc), the federal government, the wars etc etc to the currency by monetizing the deficit. Either way, deflation or inflation, gold wins as the flight to safety investment. But as I said, deflation is the economic reality, inflation is the political response and the only politically possible outcome. So went Rome, so goes every other bloated and unsustainable empire, and every other warfare/welfare state.
If things keep picking up .... That gold trade is going south and fast.
Why would things "pick up"? I sense FAITH in that statment. Not a cold hard look at underlying economic realities. The US has been running a trad deficit for multiple decades now. You can't solve a systemic problem of overconsumption vs underproduction that is 30 years in the making in a couple of years. If you understand what caused the great depression, credit expansion (debt expansion) which began in 1922 at the genoa convention when the US doubled the money supply, then you will understand that we are only a few years into "the greatest depression".
Find me a sector of the US economy that is not dependendent on it's citizens going into debt to sustain it (auto, housing, luxury - like starbucks or malls or resturaunt chains etc) and I will find you a company worth investing in long term. Debt is unstustainable. Underconsumption (producing more than you consume) is sustainable for perpetuity. The entire US economy is based on debt. That means the entire US economy is destined for collapse, liquidation, and re-birth from the ground up as we transition from a debt-based capital structure to a productivity based capital structure.
Things are not going to pick up. Economic law will have it's way, and the entire US capital structure will be forced to liquidate malinvestments and return to productivity vice consumption.
I sense that your core investment assumptions are based on faith in the US political/economic structure which is simply not validated by the economic realities. There is an old saying, that the idol you worship is the one that kills you. Could it be that your misplaced faith in the "power" of the USG, is guiding your investment decisions? Is your nationalism what is directing your economic positioning? I'm a political atheist. I go where the wealth is, I don't invest based on political loyalties.
Things aren't going to pick up and it's for the simplest of reasons: employment & wages.
The U.S. has never had a long term or even moderate term sustained economic expansion without massive job creation and corollary wage increases.
Nothing else matters. All other datum are window dressing that the permabulltards love to dismiss.
Permabulls are either seeking confirmation bias because they really have much to lose on their longs, or they haven't risked any of their own money, but are making transactional money by convincing as many people as possible that things are getting better all the time.
Isn't it great when you can gamble with other peoples' money and STILL get paid no matter the outcome?
JOBS[joblessness] is the ultimate antidote to the Hopium trade.
Agreed, but with qualifications. It's not about jobs per se, but about the quality of the jobs. In weimar Germany before hyperinflation, everyone had a job. They were the kind of jobs where you dig a hole and then fill it up - government jobs - and they always paid - in fiat money fresh from the presses...
The US needs productive jobs, manufacturing jobs. We need to make the kinds of things that we like to consume (like all the things in the store currently made in China) and the things that we need (like food and energy).
So the real solution (or symptom) of the current economic imbalance is massive unemployment. It would be, should be, frictional, temporary unemployment as the american work force is re-tooled and transitions from unproductive (retail, consumption based industry) to productive (manufacturing, export oriented) jobs. The USG and the FED is standing in the way of that rebalancing by bailing out and sustaining failed business models and banks. No different than the great depression, where FDR and the FED came in and tried to prop up failed business models and failed banks, turning what should have been a short, sharp recession into "the great depression".
But you are absolutely right. Zero recovery without productive jobs period. We are a long way from that point.
And... END THE FED!!!
The economy will NEVER improve while real rates are negative. It is a mathematical impossibility. Negative real rates implies that the world is eating it's capital. The only thing to own during times like that is gold (and silver), and possibly some of the associated paper, depending on the level of corruption (currently too high to own more than about 10% paper--I hold NONE).
Show me positive real rates and an associated trend of austerity in Washington, and I'll be out of gold in a heartbeat. I will hold silver, but for other reasons. Owning paper right now is like sleeping on railroad tracks. You might wake up just fine in the morning, but keep doing it, and you'll wake up dead one day.
Austerity trend from the US? Not with our current government structure. And I'm not talking Dem/GOP, I mean the whole structure is designed to spend as much as possible on defense and entitlements, since that's what gets votes. Plus, the last time we tried austerity was under Hoover, and it made the Depression worse. So there's incredible fear of austerity and deflation by people like The Bernanke. No way austerity is going to happen. Hyperinflation first.
but Robot, you TOLD us to sell, you promised gold would go down and that we should sell, sell, sell, we trusted you....well not really, we're not that stupid.
PS Jamie says the check may be late this week and not to let down on the gold bashing, a turn around is coming soon, we must trust Jamie and Blythy
Ya. Um robo. You said just yesterday that gold got crushed because north korea is starting shit with south korea. And that people want to get out of risky gold and into safe dollars. That makes you an imbecile. Now and forever. You have no sincerity or sand or character. You are just a bullshitter.
This is coming from a man, who has been beaten down these last few months as a bear, but anyone have any kind of thoughts as to how long they keep the pumping going? Or when this run will be over?
Or just thoughts in general
I'm thinking that many "bears" own silver. Silver is up ~67% year to date. So bears aren't really getting "beaten down". I've been making about 40% a year on my mix of PMs and PM stocks over the last 3 years or so. Now if you spend all day everyday doing daytrading, then I would expect your returns to be a lot higher than that - because that is your JOB. But 40% isn't bad for my lazy strategy, which is "buy, hold, and snore..."
AAPL appears to be breaking out as we speak. Should run easily to 350 by EOY for those looking to grab a little.
Interesting observation.........
Long term it definitely looks like it's going up. Short term I could see it getting rejected at the 320 yard line, bouncing back and resuming the climb. Notice how shallow the trend angle has been on the last leg up. Also there is a negative divergence on the RSI and MACD over the past two months.
Wave count says it could go either way. I'll wager it gets denied, bounces on 300ish, then explodes back up.
Hmmm good point, holidays are good to AAPL and AMZN. I'm thinking a cheap payoff bet may be call options. Throw $1000 at it and who cares if you lose it all?
I wouldn't touch it until it breaks up or down. Once it decides what it's going to do, the odds are much higher.
31 consecutive weekly outflows from mutual funds . An insider selling to buying ratio that is consistently registering at over 1000:1 ( S&P ) . Chronically low volume in equities . Furthermore , an equities market in which HFT trading accounts for anywhere between 60%-70% ( I've read several estimates , none of which were below 60%) . A residential property market that has not yet found a bottom and which continues to be plagued by the "fraudclosure" debacle . A national debt which is approaching obscene levels and a wide budget deficit without any credible provision for the narrowing of said deficit . A continiung devaluation of the US dollar which , if it persists , will detract significantly from the value of stock profits . Serious macroeconomic concerns encompassing many of the world's major economies ( specifically Japan , China , US and the entire Eurozone ) .
These are the core basic reasons why I'm bearish . I'm not bitter that the market is up at these lofty levels ( although I do believe that it's absurdly high ) , but it appears to me that glaring realities are being ignored and that the lag between sentiment and reality will end soon.
All true and, in a lawful situation, would indicate a massively over-valued market and pending crash. However, laws don't apply, the market is in a kung-fu grip of it's FED masters, and this mother fucker is going up like-it-or-not.
You will take and fucking enjoy the feeding tube being shoved down your throat. Period.
Right.
I heard the EXACT same thing in 2007.
Bernanke Put, Blah blah blah.
Bernake would never let markets fall. He had the tools with interest rates. No housing bubble, no subprime crisis, and equity markets would continue their explosion.
Don't fight the Fed. You can't win against city hall.
Blah blah blah.
Ferg,
I have had the same thoughts and have been bearish since june of this year, and everything was going great, then good, then okay and now bad, what are you invested in and how do you see the next few month playing out?
I just seem to find myself everyday at the end of the day thinking that the following day will start the bear run, and that they can't pump equities like this forever.
What say you?
Thanks
Watch the sovereign bond market, this is the fuse and it has already been lit. The question is how long do we have...
Primarily I trade currencies , but also CFD's on commodity futures . Soon I'll be heading into metals ( silver mainly , I think it has more potential than gold and I also like the thought of squeezing the JP Morgan short ). Not PM futures , but actual spot . I will be taking physical delivery . I was considering stocks months ago but given the experience of people I know , who lost over 90% of their ( sizeable , for middle class investors ) initial investment in ( mostly) financials ( and also because of the reasons I mentioned in my post above ) I won't be going anywhere near them .
I don't generally subscribe to conspiracy theories . Unless there is strong explicit or implicit evidence . In this case there is a bit of both . I do believe that this market is being manipulated to some degree . It can't last forever though and I think that if thin December liquidity and the need to create a Christmas wealth effect prevent equities from taking a tumble , then January could very well be when things get sticky . Who knows though , it's silly to be logical in an illogical market .
N.B I have not been trading for a long time . I am by no means an expert in any of the assets I trade , so please don't read too much into my thoughts !
And....just like MAGIC, the futures are levitating for a unexplicable triple digit open tomorrow. Just for fuck-sake, I guess.
Unfortunately, there are really no signs of market weakness anywhere.
PM's got slapped around, but only because they went parabolic and they need to establish a new base.
You forgot your quotation marks. It's "market". Please adhere to the obvious.
Robot I heard the IMF is going to sell alot of gold what do you think?
Robot, you have to be one of the dumbest fuckers I've ever had the displeasure to be exposed to - or, in a kinder twist, you're a lying shill and maybe just one of the fadist fast members of the brokerage pump&dump world.
You're the type of person who probably bought the BRIC story lock, stock and barrel, and has and will continue to have their asses handed to them.
You also probably don't realize that the U.S. economy is suffering from the worst fundamentals it has since the '30s, and that without government transfer payments (i..e fucking welfare, state and federal employment, which have both mushroomed since the 70d, etc.) and credit cards, we'd see the exact same soup lines we did 80 years ago. The labor participation rate is most likely hovering around the 58% to 63% line, which is atrocious.
The U.S. is undergoing a STRUCTURAL, not a CYCLICAL, contraction - long term. Do you understand this? Do you realize this is why Davidovitz is so bullish on discounters, nearly exclusively?
And you probably also believe the bullshit numbers coming out of China regarding their GDP growth rate and their propaganda as to how they don't have a massive real estate bubble that dwarfs the one we had.
Either these things, or you're a hackneyed fucking stock pumper, probably working for some low rent scumbag brokerage firm.
No! Wait, I know - you know exactly what reality is, and you're so perfectly hedged with options, and have access to market makers with CDS insurance, that you're going to make money whether the market rises, or even if we get a monumental crash - right?
In summary, you're just another shill who talks about how much money he is making on stocks that have flushed anyone touching them over any meaningful time frame, as no one is going to be able to consistently buy near the lows and sell near the tops on these chops, repeatedly, lest they get their head handed to them.
The people making money are those chosen few with mainframes in New Jersey who are making it by frontrunning bid and ask, or those who really do have the ability to borrow from the fed and have front side demand for loans, making a nice spread complements of Bernanke subsidized largess (aka taxpayer getting hosed).
You're a big swinging dick who lunches weekly with Stevie Cohen, Jim Simmons and Geithner, right Robo?
Fuck you, fuck Wang or whatever his real name is, and fuck the permabulls who can't even be sensible enough to be honest with the truth John Bogle stated, which is that day and swing traders lose over time, period, with the most finite exceptions imaginable, because market timing is impossible.
Swenson gives the same sage advice.
If you're not into dark pools, HFT and other scams, then you can't win long-term in rigged markets, period.
But keep spewing your bullshit, and I'll talk to you again real soon. By then, you'll undoubtedly be telling people you went short at the perfect time, or are into PMs in a disproportionately massive fashion.
He's a trader, not an economist. One makes piles and piles of money following the market; the other gets confused, wondering why the market is not obeying the fundamentals.
The market leads the economy, not the other way around. And the BLACKHAWK is leading the charge.
I think he's the smart one here. Who's ringing the cash register and who's infuriated because "it just can't go on much longer"....?
:D
Yes, yes, yes...
So many traders make money, let alone don't lose their asses.
It's all perfectly clear to me now.
Dan Zangers of the world, unite.
http://www.neurosoftware.ro/finance/tag/terrance-odean/
Academics like Brad Barber and Terrance Odean have studied the investment performance of day traders in detail. Not surprisingly, it’s ghastly. Here’s more from the NYT:
The great mass of studies point to the same conclusion: trading is hazardous to your wealth…. The losers far outnumber the winners…
The authors sifted through tens of millions of trades, from 1992 to 2006, and found that 80 percent of active traders lost money.
“More importantly, we found that if you were to look at the past performance of these traders, only 1 percent of them could be called predictably profitable,” says a co-author, Brad M. Barber, a finance professor at the University of California, Davis. Everyone else, it seems, was on a short-term winning streak. Even those who did modestly well found their that profits were wiped out, and then some, by transaction fees like commissions and taxes.
“It’s not impossible to make money actively trading,” Mr. Barber continues. “There are slivers of people out there who are quite good. And everyone thinks they will be in that group of 1 percent.”
Those are some powerful numbers, so let’s review them again:
Put differently, far from this being an enriching line of work, 4 out of 5 people engaged in it pay to do it. Only 1 in 100, meanwhile, make enough to be worth writing home about.
The folks who predictably make money from day trading, of course, are the folks who sell traders tools for their day trading: Information courses, “how-to” advice, data streams, stock charts, technical analysis, trading clubs, investment advice, stock picks, you name it. Those folks do quite well from day-trading. Unless they’re dumb enough to actually trade.
But day trading is fun. Right? And it’s cool again. So, by all means, have at it.
Sour grapes, just like all the whiners claiming HFT and frontrunning is the only way to make money. Learn some sound technique and report back. Here's one daytrader who's been kicking a$$ for the 6 months I've been following his method. I was losing, too, listening to all the bearish garbage, waiting for the crash, until I started using real buy and sell signals without a bullish or bearish bias either way.
tradestocksamerica.com
You can be a market loser all your life if you believe it's inevitable. Or you can summon the courage to become rich. Wealth is attracted to itself, and it begins in the mind. If you're already mentally whipped, you'll remain down.
LMFAO!
Nice plug there for that cheese dick site!
TradeStocksAmerica.com Offers Online Stock Trading Education, Training, and Tools that can help anyone make money in the stock market.
And "you were losing, too," but you won't lose again, right?!
Hopium or shill bullshit FTW!
What do you make as a clerical worker at tradestocksamerica.com?
+38% this week. The buy signal called JPM out of the hole before it lit off like a bottle rocket.
The site looks cheesy and that's part of why it took me so long to adopt the technique.
I also tested it on about 15 stocks over the past week and the win rate was 88% with an average weekly return of 8%, including all losses.
Like I said, the guy has been returning similar results over the 6 months I've followed his daily updates.
Try it. Like I said, without FAITH that you can win, you'll lose. Or as a certain Book said "to he who has, more will be given, but to he who has little, even what he has will be taken away"
This appears to describe you. You could turn it around, but if you insist on mocking success, it will not visit you.
How transparent can you be?
When you're dumb enough to plug a daytrading site like that, ESPECIALLY in the immediate aftermath of what I posted prior -
Use a condom.
Yikes, and I thought there was a little hope for you.
I can tell you've been burned quite a number of times in the market.
Farewell, and good luck.
where are you seeing that boiler? i'm not seeing that in the futures on bloomberg
+40 DOW (not including FV increase) and 5 handles on the SPX, as of now. Of course, several 'nudges' upward to keep it going in the right direction.
It'll keep on getting quote stuffed till it gets to 10 handles. Bank on it. Same fucking shit, over and over.
sorry will you explain the "handles" I don't know what that is and the SPX
thanks!
Sorry, it's just wierd slang. It just mean's full points when talking SPX...I have no idea where it originates from. 10 points SPX and ~100 DOW, watch. It'll be there when you get up and take a piss tomorrow morning.
Really surprised that momentum carried through after the close . I don't like to admit it , but I think S&P futures are going to break yesterday's high and head for 1,250 . Santas buying , wants stocks nice and high so he can afford all those PS3's and ipods .
Bull bear who cares, stack returns against each others to see who is smart or not, isnt to trade positions and not beliefs? Sure this or the could be doomed but if the number DIA SPY or otherwise does not say this and your job (or hobby) is trading then the only thing of your concern is to be right the majority of the time. If I'm a bull and have a bull position do you think i give a F%$# if they manipulate the market higher? if i'm bear and this happens i better cut and run.
Returns are the name of the game not beliefs if people made money on beliefs we'd all be billionaires by now
Seems to confirm that article in today's online edition of the WSJ. Smart money has moved to cash.
http://blogs.wsj.com/wealth/2010/12/08/affluent-investors-flee-to-cash/?...
So, once the tax chicken crap passes, they'll feel ok and move back in. Bet on it.
Ultra-high-net-worth individuals have a truly irrational fear of taxes, it's amazing. They make rash judgments based on it, almost like religious nutjobs and their wacko paranoia. I can only figure they can't do the math.
Just wanted to give the heads up today.
Went into my local bank today to cash a check for almost 2G's. (this bank has 24 locations in my area)
I frequent this bank very regularly so I have a personable relationship with the tellers. I asked the teller how she was doing today and she said something that blew my doors off.
She said that it was one hellofa day because everone was taking their money out of the bank.
I was like what do you mean ?
She said that she had never seen so many people taking money (cash) out of the bank and she wished she knew what was going on.
So I told her that yesterday in the EU that they had a bank run based on the football players campaign.
She said really because it was the same thing yesterday.
So I presented my check and she said "I dont have any hundreds left will 50's be ok" ?
I have been going to this bank for years and never heard such a thing.
Anyway I took it in 50's
Just a heads up !@@!
It's called Christmas shopping. LOL!!!
I tried to take $5000 out when things imploded back in 2008 and had to visit two branches. Banks just don't have cash on-hand. It's scary.
...and fuck outflows.
carrot on a string
hmm...don't see harry wanger around much..will the real james please stand up though?
The comments in this thread are a PERFECT & TEXTBOOK example as to how Bernanke, grand idiot supreme, has implemented policies that misprice assets and encourage speculation in asset bubbles.
If Bernanke would have been wise enough to restrain himself, let the sickly actors fall, protect the deposits and savings accounts, and allow PRICES ON ASSETS TO FALL TO EQUILIBRIUM (AKA FIND THEIR TRUE MARKET PRICE), then he wouldn't have felt the need to implement this massively fraudulent (rewarding losers and criminals - for now) and incredibly inefficient theft and transfer of wealth in the form of TARP, TALF and QE.
The markets, as painful as it would have been short-term, would have recovered and allowed true market pricing of assets to take place, not all or even most of the banks would have died, the deposits would have been protected by things in place that weren't during the great depression, and the meaty center of middle class Americans (or what was the meaty center) would have been far better off, and their confidence would have shown in their activity of buying and investing more with their STRONGER DOLLARS.
But Bernanke had to go and shoot the wad of about 9 trillion in transfers so far, with an unknown amount yet to come, depending on if things get materially worse - there is a TON of shit on banks' balance sheets still left to be marked and cleared.
The worst part is that the deleveraging taking place is still going to swamp any printing Bernanke has done, or can do (due to looming political constraints).
Bernanke has created a terrible problem for himself, and that's why he's spouting off on '60 Minutes,' stating total lies, and trying to project an air of confidence, as the political backlash and noose tightens around the Federal Reserve and politicians who support it.
Let inflation on necessities keep chugging along at the rate it has - you'll see what happens. Politicians will be racing to be the first in line to demonize Bernanke and the Federal Reserve well before the 2012 elections, as senior citizens, who do vote, become even more enraged by their living expense 'issue.'
These seniors won't care what is the cause; they will just want blood at the ballot box. The politicians will try and deflect the blame by villifying Bernanke and Treasury and Obama.
Go back to 1980, and Reagan crushed Carter because of seniors voting for Reagan because of their frustration with the cost of living increases (and THIS WAS AT A TIME WHEN THE 30 YR T NOTE WAS YIELDING 18% and MMs were paying 8%+ to savers).
This will not end well for Bernanke or Obama. They've created a terrible dilemna for themselves with TARP, TALF & QE, and their kick-the-can mentality.
Time is not on their side. I'd love to see an Intrade odds table on Americans who favor fiscal conservatism vs. fiscal liberalism right now, and then see this tracked through 2012 as well as political leanings, especially if energy, food, tuition and medical expenses keep rising.
My bet is the following three types of retail investors and actions:
Ron Paul just announced on Freedom Watch he WILL be the new House House Subcommittee for Domestic Monetary Policy Chairman.
And a big FUCK YOU to Bernanke.
Bets on timing of Bernanke's resignation? (Greenspan, of all people, just said today that the bond markets are telling Bernanke that QE should end).
I love Ron Paul but I can't see how it will have any real effect.
Ron Paul has grilled Greenspan and Bernanke before - GRILLED them. The YouTube videos of Ron Paul yelling at them about destroying our currency are entertaining. But Congress has no authority over the Fed - in fact, the Fed's charter explicitly makes them unaccountable - and Greenspan and Bernanke were doing the exact same things for years and years under Ron's watch before.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gldETRlhiXk&feature=related
Day traders need to gamble, but they don't care if markets are up or down. For those of us who have real jobs and would like to invest it's a lot harder. I do have to admit I am surprised at the vitriol at the wanker and robo. It doesn't matter how we want the world to be. I still think don't fight the fed is good advice, particularly since the helicopter drops have turned into B1 bomber runs. I'm long JPM too as well as Citi. Mark to magic does wonders for a stock. I may be a fool, but I'm willing to document my investments here. Talk is cheap.
Be the 1%. Just don't assume anyone claiming to be is.
http://www.neurosoftware.ro/finance/tag/terrance-odean/
Academics like Brad Barber and Terrance Odean have studied the investment performance of day traders in detail. Not surprisingly, it’s ghastly. Here’s more from the NYT:
The great mass of studies point to the same conclusion: trading is hazardous to your wealth…. The losers far outnumber the winners…
The authors sifted through tens of millions of trades, from 1992 to 2006, and found that 80 percent of active traders lost money.
“More importantly, we found that if you were to look at the past performance of these traders, only 1 percent of them could be called predictably profitable,” says a co-author, Brad M. Barber, a finance professor at the University of California, Davis. Everyone else, it seems, was on a short-term winning streak. Even those who did modestly well found their that profits were wiped out, and then some, by transaction fees like commissions and taxes.
“It’s not impossible to make money actively trading,” Mr. Barber continues. “There are slivers of people out there who are quite good. And everyone thinks they will be in that group of 1 percent.”
Those are some powerful numbers, so let’s review them again:
Put differently, far from this being an enriching line of work, 4 out of 5 people engaged in it pay to do it. Only 1 in 100, meanwhile, make enough to be worth writing home about.
The folks who predictably make money from day trading, of course, are the folks who sell traders tools for their day trading: Information courses, “how-to” advice, data streams, stock charts, technical analysis, trading clubs, investment advice, stock picks, you name it. Those folks do quite well from day-trading. Unless they’re dumb enough to actually trade.
But day trading is fun. Right? And it’s cool again. So, by all means, have at it.