A +316,000 NFP Print On Friday? The BLS Seasonal Fudge Factors Make It Very Likely

Tyler Durden's picture

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E pluribus unum's picture

Dow 14000by January 31st

deadhead's picture

why don't we just seasonally adjust the numbers up by 4 or 5 million and call the recession over and the beginning of a new dawn in America?

Howard_Beale's picture

Well cuz then the market would sell off instantly because the FED would HAVE to raise rates!

deadhead's picture

I can't tell you how much I enjoy your commentary Howard!

That was a magnificent one liner and the best laugh that I've had today.

Howard_Beale's picture

So glad to get you laughing, DH.

A Man without Qualities's picture

This outcome is quite possible.  Market has risen over the holiday season on pretty light volume, plenty waiting at the sidelines thinking, do I go in or not.  Classic bait and switch would be a upside surprise on jobs, people buy on the news and then the market sells off on expectation of rate increases.  The crocodiles would have eaten a few wildebeest for a good start to 2010.

Bull v. Bear's picture

I concur, after all it is just a number, not real people say the size of Minnesota...

Stoploss's picture

Bank sector has been under accumulation. My guess is, someone knows those numbers are going to be good, or why else buy banks.

Time to get long apparrently.   Or both with tight stops.

msorense's picture

They are alternately squeezing IYR and IYF.  Right now you can breath a bit if you own SRS but not FAZ.  In a couple more weeks it could be different. 



Anonymous's picture

lol...of course, the big banks (primary dealers) are flush with cash. Believe otherwise at your own risk. Sure they have problems, but they are gaming the markets for billions and have been doing so since TARP (oct2008). Along with other loans/bailouts, they have recovered nicely, more so than the doom and gloom prophets want you to believe.

They have screamed inflation the past several months, and every monkeys uncle wants gold and oil. Ooooh inflation is coming...its here...oooh...

Its all hand waving by the gov on spending. The only active expenditure are the wars. They are doing shit for the economy and thus I don't see inflation pressure.

Now that the banks are ripe with cash, deflation is here...but shhhhhh....don;'t tell anyone. Its our secret and the banks.

Heroic Couplet's picture

Common sense: if Republican tax cuts worked to create jobs in the US, they would work immediately or, at the latest, at 26 weeks, when Unemployment Insurance (UI) ends.

There would have been no job loss under George W Bush and a Republican US Congress (2000-2006). You will never see a Republican voter figure this out, given the politics of distraction promulgated by the MSM.

BS Inc.'s picture

As far as I'm concerned, giving me a tax cut is more to let me keep my own money and do with it what I choose, not necessarily to "create jobs".

Even so, the headline unemployment rate went down while Bush was in office, last I recall.

Anyway, that's the past and the post is about the future, specifically, Friday's release and what it might show.

Master Bates's picture

Yeah, I mean the actions Bush took were SO great for the economy, I don't know why any of us would question any of his policies at all.

PierreLegrand's picture

So raising taxes is the answer? Who knew...

baserunr's picture

No, raising taxes is not the answer...printing money is!  I just don't understand why it took us 200+ years to figure it out! If we just print money in an endless stream, we can print our way to prosperity!



Anonymous's picture

Take your politics elsewhere. This is a finance site. If you haven't figured out that the guys you like are as corrupt as the guys you don't like, you deserve to lose every cent you have.

Master Bates's picture

Thanks to the jobs situation in this country, I just may have to do that!

Thanks Dubya!

Anonymous's picture

The matrix was boring compared to this on going saga.

State of the Union address needs good news!!!

"we went from losing 770k jobs in the spring to gaining 300 k last week. I am all you asked for and more". BHO.

I am sick of it I tell ya.......

alexdg's picture

Many would consider this as the official ending of the recession, but wouldn't it put pressure on the Fed to raise rates?

El Hosel's picture

"This will likely result in initial claims reaching their highest level since last February next week while the model reports it as the lowest level in 18 months".

 Yeah, that is some nice modeling.

RobotTrader's picture

Sorry, I was out most of the day...

Bank stocks are still doing well........Could see some real acceleration if this proves to be a consolidation marking the midpoint of the move...

Oil Service on fire....

Coal going nuts...

Stronger retailers starting to show some life

BBBY up $3.50 after hours....

Monsanto shook off the warning last night...

Huge volume in Kraft....

AT & T, Verizon, Apple, Google were hammered today, but the commodity stocks took up the slack...

deadhead's picture

Sorry, I was out most of the day...

little tryst with Maxine Waters perhaps?

Careless Whisper's picture

@ Robo   back from the dead = CIT

Reductio ad Absurdum's picture

"Motors Liquidation Company" up 20% in 2 days. The motors liquidation business is booming!

Now all we need is an "American Liquidation Company" and our problems will be solved.

Leo Kolivakis's picture

Robo was slacking off yesterday, knee deep in hookers and booze:


Are these the next ten baggers in the solar space? Another one that surged yesterday was Worthington, a steel company:



As for the jobs report, I don't need to read any GS report. Profits are up, ISM new orders are surging, and business investment is picking up. We'll see if they sell or buy the news. Either way, BUY THE DIPS!

aaronvelasquez's picture

Solars are overfunded, hence overbought, and heavily mismanaged.  The guys from a local solar company toured my plating shop with 7 or 8 people, talked big numbers and promptly shut it all down.  They were a**holes, sadly, and running on a model out of an '80s business movie.  

Anonymous's picture

I used to be disgusted,
but now I try to be amused...

Anonymous's picture

If there is an orgy of buying, it will be the top. There are no bears left:


It's just days away now.....

Anybody know if Bernanke and Geithner have plane reservations?

bluebare's picture

A market can stay irrational longer than you...

hidingfromhelis's picture

A market can stay irrational manipulated longer than you...

Rainman's picture

Somewhat related, speaking of employment.

Arnie coughed up a nice little hairball during his final CA State of the Disunion speech this a.m. CA State employee pension liabilities have increased 2,000 % since the turn of the century, while State revenues increased 24% for the same period.

But not to fear, current employees/pensioners are protected by "law" for the full amount. He made a plea for the madness to be cap stopped .

An absolute goatfuck for the taxpayers. I gotta' get out of here.

aces and eights's picture

Yeah, and I wonder how many of those CA pensioners get out of here and head to our no-income-tax neighbor NV once they retire.

Rainman's picture

You are right... boogeyin' like the Haitians on boats heading for Florida.

Orange County has gone bankrupt, but never an entire State. And that appears to be what will happen in CA. Since Arnie is lameduck, he'll probably pull that default stick out of his trick bag soon .....threaten to whack the Legislature with it. He really doesn't have much choice with all the dysfunction in SAC. No sliding through '10 without a war over a $21 Billion hole, that's for sure. 

Even the FURLOUGHS have triggered a dozen lawsuits against the State demanding back wages.

It's way fukked up.

Arnie's making a case that for every dollar paid by CA residents to Uncle Sugar, only 78 cents comes back to the State in benefit. Good luck with that plea. Hey, maybe Barry, SanFran Nan, Diane and Barbie will throw the Terminator a lifesaver in his sinking hour of need. NOT !!


Anonymous's picture

arnold has been as much of a disaster as that
creep he replaced.

Anonymous's picture

The 22 cents difference is Government overhead. Why should we expect to get back 100 cents on the dollar invested in Government?

If we did get back 100%, then the 22 cents would become part of the deficit which would be added to the debt.

torabora's picture

I'm only 40 miles from Nevada in Commiefornia...Nevada is tempting but the hidden problem there is water. Unless something changes people are going to state smelling there. Water bills will approach mortgages. This is year 4 of drought.

torabora's picture

I'm only 40 miles from Nevada in Commiefornia...Nevada is tempting but the hidden problem there is water. Unless something changes people are going to state smelling there. Water bills will approach mortgages. This is year 4 of drought.

johnny9iron's picture

I would if I were you. Life is too short to play from the rough every hole.

Anonymous's picture

If we had a surprise upside reading on employment, what yield do you think the 10 yr goes to? 4.0?...that would mark the break of a rather long downtrend and set the stage for 4.5% rates. Think the economy can handle that already?

Jesse's picture


I doubt that big of a print quite a bit.

I like my forecast of +58,000, but would not rule out on as high as +100,000.


Rainman's picture

But the more outrageous the lie.......

Anonymous's picture

I expect GS to be extremely pessimistic with their expected number this time so as to add a little zing to the positive number.

Racer's picture

The pyramid scam that is the Socialist States of America is really becoming obscene in the manipulation.

But I thank you greatly ZH, it is up to people like you to show the truth

Ned Zeppelin's picture

This is nuts - who is hiring? No one! Bullshit.  Sorry, O.

deadhead's picture

true. all over upstate NY, there are literally no jobs, with the possible exception of stuff in the health field (always seem to be looking for nurses).  Even in the worst of times over the past 30 yrs that I have been watching, there were always some shit sales jobs being advertised but even those are down to close to nothing.

Master Bates's picture

I live in Colorado, and I've had three job interviews this week, counting the one I have this afternoon.

People are hiring here, it's just that 19 million people are looking for jobs, so it's a bit harder to get your foot in the door.
And even harder to make an impression interviewing against people that have had 20 years experience and stuff when I haven't even been working for that long.

QuantTrader's picture

+316K!  woohoo!  ZH scoops Goldman again!


Bidders dont buy.  market buy orders all morning tomorrow.