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$32 Billion 7 Year Auction Closes At 3.374%, Very Weak Auction With Huge Tail
- $32 Billion 7 Year closes at 3.374%, allotted at high 83.04%, previous at 3.078%!
- Bid To Cover at 2.61, Previous at 2.98, average overpast year 2.67
- Indirect Take Down 41.87; Direct Take Down 8.11%
- Indirect Hit Rate 82%
- When Issued was trading at 3.338%, a massive tail
- 10 Year about to break 3.90%
The chart says it all:
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Damn, i was close yesterday when I said 3.31 and the high was 3.37 and 83% alloted at the high, RUT RO!!!!
Pretty much says it all.
infLATION
is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.
—Milton Friedman
Did the printing press break? Or is Zimbabwe Ben waiting on a fresh shipment of ink and paper?
It's all about maximizing effect right now - of a swamp drain. As I posted in a previous thread on this general topic, they're flirting with it getting really ugly and when it does they simply shank the equities to find new buyers. Lather, rinse, repeat.
I have to say that's a nice impulse spike...
Right on
I'm not saying that won't happen. I just thought they might try to gun it all, keep rates down via QE (official or otherwise) and let the market be up to keep the illusion running. I would have expect them to wait a week or more to have something else spike on the news radar so people don't equate market meltdown with health-care. Not saying they are related, but being close many people would think they are.
Equity market's exhibiting plenty 'irrational exuberance' right now, doesn't need any help from interest rates to push it. Sure going to hurt some of these latecomers though, if equities do need to be sold to support the bond market.
It was lent to the IMF
That's a mighty fine avatar you have there sheeple. Isn't it time for your spring shearing? Come on, this won't hurt a bit.
That's Captain BB's job, shearing sheeps
If we could be assured that shearing sheep was all he was going to do...
Let's keep it PG during daylight hours... LOL
Big Ben B.: "It's the sheeps' fault. The sheep were asking for it by looking the way they look, flaunting their puffy, bubilicious, frothiness, know what I'm saying?"
Sure, go ahead, blame it on the attractive menace, aka the poor puffy, bubilicious, frothy sheep. :>)
Naughty girl!!
Baaa baaa
baa baa
baa beeh
behh beeh
beh beh
beh ben
ben ben
Ben Ben
Ben Behhnn Bennny Bennnnnyyyyyy
Where men are men and the sheep tremble.
I worked so hard to restrain myself and behave...truly a carbonmutant. Bad carbonmutant, bad. :-D
My apologies for contributing to the delinquency of any financial analysts or day traders. LOLZ
The Federal Reserve. Where men are men and sheep(le) are nervous.
So BB knows how to operate a printing press and dealing with farm animals, by Jim Roger's view, he's set for life for the next 10 yrs
If you can call what Ben does to farm animals "dealing".
mbs buys are slowing down, less money that can go into treasuries, we are gonna hit the wall real soon.
+1 - Bingo!!
And still the giant bellows pumps up the stock market. Whosh (inhale) Whosh (inhale) Whosh
It's like magic mommy. Do it some more. Make it bigger mommy.
Dow has to go up 150 pts today, to hit the dow 36,000 mark in 249 days.
It's most certainly trying
you could argue that money is flowing from treasuries into the dow .
why would money flow into equities as the funding mechanism for what little economic activity there is breaks down? Dividend yield for the S&P 500 is 1.8% right now, that is about a 6 year low - for equity risk, you want 1.8% return?
Just saying the feds competition is the dow - I am with you on this but I think that is what the response will be from pundits . The S&P is up 73% nobody wants to miss the price of the stocks rising . I am playing devil's adovacate here I am on your side 100% and agree with you ,but I think this is how it will be played in order not to get rising yields with a dropping market .If you invest in Banks you are almost guaranteed 1% daily , greed rules .
It's like magic mommy. Do it some more. Make it bigger mommy.
That don't sound right. lol
LOL
After the first reply (when I could no longer modify my comment) I realized it would also work as a low budget porn movie. Or worse.
Maybe people will buy them if Ben wrapped them in plastic and put a picture of a baby on the package.
maybe people will buy them if you place a stamp behind them which says: "MADE IN CHINA"
Of course! Have to send our money to China so they can lend it back to us. "Free" healthcare for all! [/sarcasm]
Solution:
Primary Dealers:
BNP Paribas Securities Corp.
Banc of America Securities LLC
Barclays Capital Inc.
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co.
Citigroup Global Markets Inc.
Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC
Daiwa Securities America Inc.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Goldman, Sachs & Co.
HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.
Jefferies & Company, Inc.
J. P. Morgan Securities Inc.
Mizuho Securities USA Inc.
Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated
Nomura Securities International, Inc.
RBC Capital Markets Corporation
RBS Securities Inc.
UBS Securities LLC.
Wal Mart
Well...Walmart did want to become a bank, didn't they?
No worries. They just wanted to see if they could sell bonds without the market tanking. Now that they know the answer, I suppose the market will tank soon. Then they can sell bonds again.
Looks like a rating drop if this goes further at this pace for another 2 to 3 months.
I'm not quite sure, but if it is what I think it is, there is a Genie emerging from that bottle, and he is nearly impossible to get back in. Wow -- look at that -- he's just floating out of there leaving a vaporous trail, and it looks as if he has a scowl on his face!
WTF did the directs go?
They are flushing our future into the toilet and our only mean of resistence is battling windmills.
Stuck on a sinking ship, but atleast we have this depressing background music
Anyone with money long is this stock market, better think how to get it out fast!! Even Helicopter Benny!
SUSPICION TOWARD A FIAT CURRENCY, ONE AWAKENED, DEVELOPS INSOMNIA. - James Dines.
I'm getting a bad feeling. What if we've been so busy looking for conspiracy theories that we're overlooking the obvious. Any chance they are going to do exactly what they said and there is really going to be a huge liquidity drain at the end of this month and the stock market is just so impressed with itself that it hasn't caught on yet?
Occam would love you.
+1
In this environment that theory would seem to indicate that the a crash is inevitable. Liek for example if you flip a coin 100 times and it is heads 97 times (Record bear market rally) that eventually 97 tails are in the cards.
Sorry the math nerd forces me to jump in here, that's not actually correct.
One you have the event, here the coin flip, it has no impact on future coin flips IE the coin does not remember how it came up before and t shoes not change the odds of future flips. You could have 100 heads in a row, but none of those past coin flips impact future coin flips. To make that comment about 97 tails in the future you would need to make the prediction before the coin flips.
Example 100 coin flips should have 50 of each. Now lets say you have 50 heads in a row. If you then predict that the next 50 will be tails you are wrong, math says the next 50 should be 25 heads and 25 tails.
It's called the Gambler's Fallacy, or the Maturity of Chances.
You are correct and this would be an anomaly. So I guess the real problem is I was a fool and should have checked the other side of the coin to make sure that there was not in fact a second heads?
lol something like that and we are facing a scam so that is very apt. I think you might be right in that the market goes down. The valuations on a lot of these companies is just insane. I wouldn't have even said anything but I've gotten into a lot of arguments about the nature of chance from my gambling days so I have a hard time controlling myself sometimes. It's something I'm a bit anally retentive on.
You guys have just discussed your way through one of the sections of The Black Swan. i.e., a coin that lands heads 99 times in a row is probably rigged, and therefore will probably land heads again.
Well I know one thing without question. Those who brought it down with ferocity, daily propaganda, panic and political threats of martial law are one & the same as the Frankenbull that was created in March of 2009.
Guess the villagers cannot be far behind.
The fault in your otherwise lucid response assumes that we are using a fair coin, and that we have equal probability associated with each outcome.
But there is nothing fair about a managed market. Federal distortions produce lopsided outcomes. The Fed has its fat fingers on the scale....greasy, fat fingers.
True, but the ODDS of that particular configuration - 100 heads in a row - are on the order of 1 in 10 undecillion (10 to the 34th power). It will occur eventually, but stochasitcally the earth may very well be a cold cinder by the time it happens.
$undecillion = upper limit of Fed balance sheet (assets).
tell the truth?
that would be a first
I would hate it if our most serious danger is the most obvious one.
That would still be a conspiracy theory because the Fed has been quite clear that they have no intention of rapidly removing liquidity. While they're saying they will stop buying mortgages, they have clearly said it will tail off, not end abruptly. They have said they are aware of the markets and their role in the market rise and they won't do anything sudden to spook the market. So if they do it by removing liquidity rapidly, it would be by way of a conspiracy and anyone questioning the conspiracy would be theorizing, also know as a conspiracy theorist.
By the way, police, Attorney's General, judges, lawyers, prosecutors etc are all conspiracy theorists. The difference is that they are "official" conspiracy theorists.
Rapidly is a relative term. At this point even a minor drain would be massive, no?
"Rapidly is a relative term. At this point even a minor drain would be massive, no?"
I agree. I just wanted the opportunity to discuss conspiracy theorists without discussing the theories. The word has been used the bludgeon people and truth to the point where even sane and rational people run away screaming when they see the words.
Conspiracy is the most common charge brought against people in the court system but the term has been used by propagandists and "state" mind controllers to squelch dissent and a strange concept called "thinking" and "rational thought".
A conspiracy is a group operating towards a common goal, sometimes in secret. We see this every day. Do you work towards a goal with your co-workers? Do you openly reveal everything you do to all? It's naturally for a group to work towards a common goal. not everyone may agree bout the details, but they may agree with the direction it is moving in. I may not agree with pizza topics with a co-worker but we can both decide on pizza and then hash it out later. We are programed to believe that while we the plebs can work together towards a goal the powerful, the rich, the well connected, would never work together for their self interest.
Orwell got it right with the sheep of Animal Farm. A group always ready to take a new party line and repeat it. Ever ready to drown out any debate with their bleating of the party line. Free of thought, nothing more then an echo chamber of the establishment.
I go round and round with this w/ ppl
There is also the phenomenon of apparent conspiracy through concert of action of likeminded actors.
That's what we see here. It's why there appear to be conspiracies everywhere.
We've got a clan of people who all know each other, think the same way, empower each other's children, are part of the same clubs and organizations.
How should we expect a group of them to not drive towards a common goal. There is no smoky room that has made the types of concentrations of the same kind of people for example in all the hollywood or financial elite spheres; it's as simple as they help each other out, they think alike, they have the same narrative history, they form an interlocking directorate, they teach their kids the same stuff and give each other's kids jobs. How should we expect other than for their efforts to appear to be in conspiracy?
A nice way to describe it. A group of like minded people working towards a common desired goal. Really this website could be described as a conspiracy. A group of like minded (but not always agreeing smart people) getting together to do something and put forth their view. Hell ZH contributors and commenters are even anonymous if they wish to be:)
Tell us more about "thinking" and "rational thought" C_D
I have heard tell of such things....
I think like you. This is Coach John Maynard "Deficient Aggregate Demand" Keynes' playbook to a tee. That "they" would try and crash the stock market just to make it easier to issue debt doesn't make sense because the crash is what supposedly necessitates all the government spending in the first place. They know the fiscal situation is a disaster and the know they're swimming against the tide but they believe the economy can, indeed has to be, "fixed". These people believe that it's possible for government expenditure to pick up the slack from the private consumer and that lower interest rates and QE don't affect the structure of production. Stagflation proves them wrong and it is unfortunately the absolute best they can hope for out of this program but the global demand environment isn't nearly as accomodative to the Keynesian band-aid as it was when Japan embarked on its journey to economic purgatory. They're running out of road and the can is getting harder to kick but I don't think anybody believes liquidity is going anywhere. The prevailing belief is that government should fix things and they will continue to do so as long as they can all the while sewing the seeds of their own undoing. Even if liquidity does get meaningfully drained it's getting sprayed right back in once the market goes "Fuck!!!"
I can see the market spasming up and down a few more times before "the big one" (I'm astonished they've kept it going this long, so hey, why not further still?) but the next downdraft is the straw that breaks the camel's back and I'm positive they're scared shitless of it.
Our
Bonds
Ask
Much
As
Cash vaults
Are
Really
Empty
...or something like that
Can someone please take this Cujo market out back and put it out of it's misery
They either start buying again or this shit is gonna blow up.
Better hope that the 401k has a "cash" option bc there won't be anywhere to hide
That's assuming they just don't take them outright. If it happened in Argentina then it can happen here. After all it would fit in the political theme being shown at the moment. "We need to take this money to redistribute it so everyone will be able to retire!" AKA we need this to kick the can a little further down the road.
That clause about a government "of the people, by the people, and for the people" would be beached if they tried to take my savings. I would consider the social contract broken. And I would fight aggressively and violently to retain my property. I have a sneaking suspicion I would not be alone.
My father has said much the same. But you would be in the minority. Most people don't have retirement savings, and those that do not a significant amount. You would have the majority against you as well as the might of the Army. They need not even use lethal weapons, they have been building no lethal weapons for years. We live in a police state and everything you "own" is only yours so long as the government allows it to be so.
We have a government of the oligarchs, by the oligarchs, and for the oligarchs. We are their serfs just as our ancestors were in ages past.
And I am not saying don't stand up to them. I think it's admirable that people will, who knows maybe those that take a stand will even win. I just want it to be known the long odds those that take a stand will face; bombs, tanks, drones, nukes, mercenary soldiers. I plan on running, but in all honesty I'm a little on the coward side of the spectrum.
200 million privately owned guns in America
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_many_guns_are_in_the_united_states_of_America
Having worked and trained with many of these owners, I can assure you that it would be a force to be reckoned with.
They are also intelligent and are quite aware of what is going on...and quite pissed off...
Yeah, that might be a moment where a lot of people consider starting to shoot people.
I keep wondering when we see the first example of that.
Argentina, recall, seized public pensions first. If that happens, you've got a lot of self-entitled police, fire, teachers out there who are expected to toe the line. I wouldn't expect anybody to be able to get to the Executive, but there are a lot of lower-hanging apples in the government.
And if you don't like it, what are you going to do about it? This is why the police state ground work is being done now (was done over the past 10 years) not when the population begins to wake up to the fact they're the sheep and have just been shorn.
A police state doesn't happen after the fact. It is created before hand and thus available when it's "needed" to quell dissent from "radicals" and other unpatriotic sum suckers who won't think of anything other than their "rights" and the "constitution" and other radical publications.
Once again in total agreement. The police state has been built in earnest for hte past decade. They will have the guns and the SWAT teams. This will get very, very bad. The two options being accepting the total looting or standing up and getting kicked back down by the police state. There is a reason why I'm looking at leaving the country after school, I'm horrified by what I see and people simply accept.
I'm certainly not a brave man and standing up to guys in body armor, tanks, and attack helicopters does not appeal to me. My roommate helped build and test some of the pain compliance tech in the military. I would rather not have it used on me.
agreed, next stop Canada for me if/when it gets real bad here, like England bad. Good weed, hot women, hockey, what's not to like?
BTW, I recommend any of Alex Jones' Police State videos, I think he has a new one coming out this spring, good primer on what we are up against, you can see some old ones on youtube.
Dude I looked long and hard at Canada. I want to like it, but I hear they have some of the same stuff happening there. But my main problem is I expect Canada to get hammered by the USA. Not officially, but I can see a wave of 30 million Americans storming the border looking for a better life when things go pear shaped here. If Canada was not adjacent to the USA I would probably be planning on moving there. If you can point me to facts to change my mind please do so :)
I heard of those videos but never watched them. Might have to check them out.
oh, if you haven't seen his videos, I HIGHLY recommend Fall of the Republic. Every American should watch this video, right, left, lib, rhino.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VebOTc-7shU
I lived in Canada for 7 years. It is a society controlled by a very few. You have no rights, except as granted by the state. I wouldn't hold out Canada as an example of a place to escape tyranny.
You will have to leave your guns and ego's at the border. But no need to rush. We have a housing bubble here that's going to implode once interest rates start to rise. Bank of Canada hints interest rate will start to rise before June. That means the Fed will probably make a surprise announcement in the April/May timeframe.
We really need to get a "where to expatriate" forum or something going here. Those who have the option should seriously consider it. Anecdotally I'm hearing more and more about under-30's who have good educations and are not yet tied down moving outside the US for their initial career, with no particular plans to return down the road.
The US could still turn things around. Or, the whole world system could collapse so far that it would be better to be here in the US than in most other places. Between those two extremes, keep your mind open.
I have looked at Norway and Brazil. My take on the future is that all revolves around energy production and these are two net exporters. Each has its own advantages and disadvantages, significant ones.
This +1!
I'm looking at it and I know some of my friends (all experienced software developers with years of experience) are looking at leaving too. None of my friends have made the move but we have discussed places. I'm dragging my parents out of country this summer to look at places for them to retire so they can pull their money out of the system.
I'm not so sure the US can turn things around. The only way I see it is a clean default and repudiation of the entitlement programs. This is simply not politically feasible. If we dumped all the incumbents (with few exceptions) then maybe there is a chance. But to me it seems more likely that they will just snap the police state grid down and squeeze what they can out of US.
Other places might look shitty if/when the US blows up. Think the forum is a great idea so we can hear about what the world travelers here think having been on the ground.
There was a nutted out ex-marine who went apeshit on onetime a year or so ago, with the requisite Chinese AK. He killed a couple of them and showed no fear.
The military is going to be trying to reintegrate a TON of people like this who have combat experience. Not too much before this is an insurgency of its own.
You take a look at other collapsed societies - look at Mexico now. Who is in control down there? The government has control of the Federal Capital and that's it. Who controls Afghanistan? Even with the weight of our armed forces, specops, Predators, and round-the-clock combat air patrols, do we in any way "control" that country? We had to PAY the warlords to establish control in Iraq and this only succeeded after they ethnically cleansed all their neighborhoods. Sure, the police/military are great at controlling unrest in one city after awhile, a G20 summit, the WTO meetings, the Capitol Steps. They can protect a Menem or De la Rua while his helicopter departs. But, the entire country? Not a chance in hell.
The future in the world a lot of people are seeing here...the "police state" has a limited radius. You're facing a likelihood of local warlordish control of things. There's not enough troops or will or money in the apocalypse outcome to maintain "order" or the police state in every city.
And all this SWAT bullshit runs on a ton of money. If the police start shaking down the citizenry, they're going to end up shot. That's what happens when "the law" stops obeying it.
It doesn't take much for guerilla insurgencies to divorce police from effective control of very large regions. In Brazil, pretty routinely, police cars get opened up on by gangsters with automatic weapons; the druggers in Mexico have anti tank rockets.
Remember, there are a lot less of the police and swatzis than there are people out there and they all have their own families.
I agree with this, but they have other options. A wise dictator would not try to seize the cities. They would control the food resources. Cut off a city from food and or bomb their water treatment/power grid and the place will turn into a 3rd world zoo in a week. Use the whore media to show the horror and futility of standing against Uncle Sugar. Taking the city would be difficult, you simply let it self destruct as an example to others. Hell enough instances of violence and you have a good excuse to seize weapons from the citizens. Controlling food, water, energy is important here as the vast majority of Americans are not self sufficient and would descend to barbarism if deprived from any of these for long.
Also in my mind this police state is not to control America for the long term, if it turned voilent it would be hard to hold in the long term. As you point out a guerrilla campaign an last a very long time. To me the police state is the insurance policy of the looters. I expect the looters to be safely offshore while the nation burns, they will have their assets out of country or in armed rural compounds. Need to let the fires burn down and the expectations of the people lower and then come in with a new promise and new ponzi to hook them on.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-taU9d26wT4
Yeah, there's your dry run.
The SWAT and police are no match for armed americans. Trust me on that.
SWAT and police aren't the enemy anyway.In a financial collapse they would be overwhelmed by the anarchists alone.Many would not leave their homes in order to protect their own families
Go get some training at:
www.frontsight.com/
That will introduce you two to a whole new world and will give you an idea of just how well americans are armed and trained.
I don't think "retreat" will help much in the future (and I think it a valid response, BTW)
+1 on Front Sight. But you don't have to pay their retail prices!!! A 4-day class in defensive handgun tactics can be had for about $150 (not including ammo) if you use a "Front Sight Training Certificate." They're available on ebay. And if you don't yet have a gun, you can rent one for the class.
The instructors at Front Sight are excellent, and you'll be well-trained by the time you leave.
Love the chart. It's like someone threw an anvil into a badminton game.
+10
That's awesome!
LOL
What is meant by 'huge tail'..?
This might help: http://www.yourdictionary.com/finance/tail
Reversal day.
Got it, thanks.
How is issuance size determined? Also where can a person find good data on what bills, notes, bonds matured today?
$230 billion this week.
That's a bit 'F' for FAIL.
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