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The 3:30 PM Equity Ramp Courtesy Of a JPY-EUR Carry Trade Near You

Tyler Durden's picture




 

3:30 pm. To the dot. An underfunded SEC is happy to see computerized HFT tulipmania back in charge of the market.

 

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Thu, 09/03/2009 - 15:59 | 57911 zeta
zeta's picture

As scheduled.

Fri, 09/04/2009 - 02:56 | 58430 Spartacus
Spartacus's picture

Payrolls will surprise all of us(me included). GS knows the number. It is better than expected. The next leg of bull rally has started. No worries, as I told you earlier "everybody has been bought over". Only the judges are left. Look at that psycho Tim.he has started playing the game ,too.

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:00 | 57914 TraderMark
TraderMark's picture

Color me surprised (and shocked)

First time I've seen this, hold on - calling Mary S.

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:03 | 57918 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Stunning how obvious it is. Of course, there is enough plausible deniability out there for the SEC is say "Move along, nothing to see here."

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:04 | 57920 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

20-day EMA Shakedown and Fakeout.

Courtesy of Goldman Sachs Prop Desk.

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:21 | 57963 Fruffing
Fruffing's picture

Robo, the GSG commodity ETF has been out of sync with the underlying commodities today (exc beans), and a very nasty dip in the morning.   Anything make sense to you?

Thx

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:37 | 57998 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

They halted share creations. Without share creations the arbitrage mechanism AP's use to keep the market price in line with the underlying basket (or swap) can not function.

Fri, 09/04/2009 - 12:06 | 58685 darkness (not verified)
darkness's picture

To be fair, plenty of firms hire an A&M and don't end up in bankruptcy.

good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:06 | 57928 vicelord
vicelord's picture

Right over the 100.565 pivot point on SPY - doesn't get any more technically bullish than that.  What.  A.  Coincidence.

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:15 | 57949 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Would you please explain why 100.565 is a pivot point? Many thanks.

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 20:11 | 58235 vicelord
vicelord's picture


There are 2 pivot points on SPY calculated using the DeMark method; pivot high - $100.565 and pivot low - $99.695.

 

It is generally believed to be bullish when the price breaks out above the pivot high and bearish when it takes out the low.

 

The traders know this; but, what's obviously more important, the COMPUTERS know this.  And so you had a very obvious take out of the pivot high into the close.  Very, very obvious.  

 

They don't even try and hide it anymore.

Fri, 09/04/2009 - 08:56 | 58519 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I asked the question.

Thanks a lot for your answer.

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:07 | 57930 Project Mayhem
Project Mayhem's picture

It works until it doesn't

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:51 | 58030 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

kaimu?

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 21:31 | 58300 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

our best thinking got us here

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:07 | 57931 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

So market is worried about jobs numbers tomorrow yet ramps into the close?

Hmmm more like shorters shorted during the day thinking the jobs numbers will be bad but GS gunned their stops into the close!

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:11 | 57937 deadhead
deadhead's picture

the jobs number today was pretty shitty imo.  the 4 week rolling average on initial claims increased.

 

what a phucking joke.

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:16 | 57951 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Less people to pay, therefore more profits!!? lol..

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:31 | 57990 Assetman
Assetman's picture

More people will leave the workforce than be add through new claims, meaning that the unmployment rate will be okay.

Payrolls may be a little problematic, because we had BLS adjustments that favored the data the past few months.

Still, there's enough room to fudge these numbers to placate the masses.

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:11 | 57938 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I wonder how long until it's psychological (if it's not already).. where bears are just scared of 3:30 every day that they simultaneously cover, thereby causing the rally.

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:21 | 57966 deadhead
deadhead's picture

the pattern WILL change and the market will inflict pain. 

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:12 | 57941 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

The market is growing green sprouts out its butt.

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:15 | 57950 3greenlights
3greenlights's picture

Buzz, I believe the new term is "tulip." Tyler - good one with "tulipmania".

Robot - classics posts!

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 17:04 | 58046 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

This market can plant tulips on my :censored:

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:12 | 57943 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Late day headlines:

--Record 35 million on food stamps

--Extended unemployment benefits will run out for 1.3 million by January

Have another Cosmo, HAL9000!

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:23 | 57969 deadhead
deadhead's picture

I believe it is virtually guaranteed that unemployment benefits will be extended again....

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:13 | 57945 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I wonder at what point (if we're not already there) this 3:30 rally is caused by bears being so scared of another 3:30 ramp up that they inadvertently CAUSE the rally by a swath of short covering.

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:17 | 57952 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Never underestimate the shopping mania of these young girls, all attempting to get "dolled up" to snag a future husband who has "billions under management"....

LOL..

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 17:02 | 58043 Bankster T Cubed
Bankster T Cubed's picture

totally

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 23:59 | 58381 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Oh snap

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:18 | 57955 Marshal Ney
Marshal Ney's picture

I was actually frightened yesterday when we had no ramp up. It was like a solar eclipse... I was ready to sacrifice a virgin or something.

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:27 | 57975 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

hahahahahahahaaaaahahah + 10

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 18:13 | 58099 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

GLWT---The only virgins left are but a gleam in their future daddy's eye.

Fri, 09/04/2009 - 00:14 | 58387 molecool
molecool's picture

Well, lucky for all of us I did :-)

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:20 | 57959 Bearish Spirits
Bearish Spirits's picture

What a rip.  Try predicting that using TA.  The only way to see that coming was to look around and observe everything but the junk stocks having PATHETIC volume.  It's the same slow ramp-up technique we've seen this whole rally.  Noticed the big stick save late in the day when the market fell out of the upward channel.

They saved the market yesterday with the ridiculous bounce early in the day and are now positioning to try to power through 1014 again if the unemployment report is great.  Makes me sick. 

So I take it they were unable to justify driving the Euro up any higher against the dollar and decided to switch currency carry trades in their comps.  Beautiful.

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:23 | 57970 thegreatsatan
thegreatsatan's picture

like they don't know what the unemployment number is well in advance. Mortimer Duke wants his dollar.

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:20 | 57960 thegreatsatan
thegreatsatan's picture

i scrath your back, you scratch mine. how long can that play out

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:28 | 57977 walküre
walküre's picture

The only thing they cannot explain away is the heavy volume in gold and gold stocks.

Miners are being bought as if they were banks! Oh no!

Something's up and it's not the confidence in the USD.

How is this going to play out next two months, I wonder?

The massive FLIGHT INTO QUALITY will not stop and they may wonder, where have all the bond shoppers gone?

Dead malls, no retail, no shoppers is irrelevant compared to FAILED TREASURY AUCTIONS one after another in coming months.

Altough the gold shoot is somewhat cyclical, the heavy volume into the mining stocks including junior miners and OTC Dora the Explorer up 200% JUNK is clearly signalling a direction.

No, Ben and Timmy these are not mall weary US consumers that are on a wild and crazy spending frenzy to buy gold! Gold is not the new Iphone, Ben. Gold is QUALITY ASSET! You should try it!

 

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:29 | 57984 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Looks like the McJobs report was probably leaked out at 3:00pm.

And that fired up the Robots to start buying off the infamous "J-Lo Bottom"....

 

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:43 | 58011 walküre
walküre's picture

That would be the cover and people can use this argument to explain away the ramp job.

Fri, 09/04/2009 - 00:15 | 58388 molecool
molecool's picture

He sure knows how to catch my attention...

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:31 | 57988 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

How come 12:30 = 3:30?

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 18:27 | 58121 leathaface
leathaface's picture

that chart is on west coast time

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:34 | 57994 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

The Fed balance sheet grew AGAIN.  Fourth week in a row.  I thought things were getting better?

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:37 | 57997 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I don't understand you guys...
if every day it's like this, stop complainig and BUY at 3:29!

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:37 | 57999 Bilderberg_GS_r...
Bilderberg_GS_runsdaworld's picture

The SEC will never go after any of the TARP recipients, I can guarantee you this. They will go after bucket shops who don't contribute to this rigged market. We'll see this behaviour till they get all the fools back into this market, then they will pull the plug. It's Bilderbergs plan with the help of GS(who controls this Gov.). Mary Shapiro is filthy thug that will bend over for these crooks. mark my word, they will look away. These young idiots that work for the SEC are all worthless human beings. I don't know how they can sleep at nights knowing this rigged market is out to destroy every investor....BTW, I will never touch this rigged market. Cash is great. F_ck the Bilderberg's, GS and this monkey Gov.

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:38 | 58004 jcmoney
jcmoney's picture

Does anyone know the % of trading days these cat's have ramped the market over the last 2 months? I figure at least 60%- 70% of the time. Anyone know for sure?

Fri, 09/04/2009 - 00:17 | 58389 molecool
molecool's picture

Sounds about right yeah - based on what I've seen...

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:43 | 58012 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Once again, Citigroup is the No. 1 top traded Lotto Ticket being gunned after hours, over 7 million already.

Gamblers cannot wait to jump on the junkers.....

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 16:55 | 58034 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I don't get it. Didn't they just annouce a huge stock dillution which is taking place on 9/10? Why would you by the stock before? Not to mention a possible reverse split.

Fri, 09/04/2009 - 01:16 | 58414 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

What makes C crap is high debt to equity. If you can increase equity, value can go up as the perception of serviceability of debt becomes more positive. Milken had a greet discussion on this.

Fri, 09/04/2009 - 12:06 | 58682 darkness (not verified)
darkness's picture

All the views come from Greek "Revolutionary Struggle" rebels, checking up on all the latest scandals and tricks used by Wall Street, so that they can catch their local banksters when they try to use the same tricks.

good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 17:00 | 58042 slore
slore's picture

can anyone give me a rundown of how the jpy-eur run up affects SPY?  is this just because robots are just running both up, or is one causing and one affected?

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 17:15 | 58055 Bankster T Cubed
Bankster T Cubed's picture

intraday most especially, selling of the yen/usd or buying of the euro/usd results in "monster-size" buying of the S&P 500.   Nothing affects the movement of the S&P 500 to the degree that moves in these currencies do.  The control mechanism used by "the banksters" who manipulate the broad market seems to be tied to the need to exchange market-moving amounts of currency.   Watch it for a couple of days.   You'll see how obvious it is that the broad market is totally manipulated by "somebody", clearly not "1000 bots" - more like one.

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 17:44 | 58077 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

You sound more uninformed than the guy asking the question...can you even point out one piece of substance in that?

If they are buying the SP500...why is there a large demand for purchasing EUROs?

Are you saying the Fed buys the SP and then exchanges dollars for EUROs? Do you even know what you're trying to say?

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 23:05 | 58357 Bankster T Cubed
Bankster T Cubed's picture

just telling you what I see, all day long, day in day out.   Feast your own uninformed eyes upon it tomorrow...and the next day, and the next.   Is it nonsense?  absolutely.  But it is truth.

Fri, 09/04/2009 - 08:51 | 58511 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Again, a substance free response...you are saying nothing at all.

Yes, I understand the carry trade...my question is how the EUR/JPY relates to SPX as opposed to the USD/JPY. Why has Tyler shown us a chart of the EUR/JPY and not the USD/JPY...seems like a pretty simple question, can you answer it?

This site has jumped the shark, it IS MSM.

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 17:24 | 58063 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Causality is hard to prove, but this effect is well known has been exploited for years.
It's actually fairly trivial - JPY gets sold when fear decreases (risk appetite increases). Thus AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY etc ... all go up when at the same time that the SPX goes up.

As mentioned above, the "carry trade" is what's probably responsible. Higher interest paying currencies are purchased and funded by selling currencies that have a lower cost of carry.

This explanation might be more plausible if interest rates were higher generally, but because almost all countries on the planet have lowered rates so much, the carry trade is much less profitable now than it was a couple of years ago.

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 20:20 | 58242 mkkby
mkkby's picture

Well, you certainly didn't explain why SPX has anything to do with the currency trades.  What is the connection?  And you say it's exploitable, yet they appear synchronized.  So how is that a tradable edge?

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 22:48 | 58350 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The carry trade results in a profit between the two currencies. Interest rates are close so you need to buy and sell HUGE amounts of the currency. Resulting in a large move in the eur/yen, dlr/yen eur/dlr.

PPT then takes the cash and buys the sp futures, ramp job ensues.

Then the sell to weaker hands on the way up and repay the loans.

Look at the currency pairs before any announcement (like at 8:25 am tomorow) and you will see how the "boys" manipulalte the market

Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:40 | 58576 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Look at the chart Tyler posted...look at when the trend is down...are you saying PPT was selling the SPX and buying EUROs? If so, why?

Why is the USD/JPY not shown...last I checked the SPX wasn't priced in EUROs. Does anyone THINK before they post this nonsense?

Can someone explain the scale of the chart...why is it not scaled as a percentage of price but as an absolute?

I'll be the first to say there's alot I don't understand, but I'd prefer that over posting some buzzwords and pretending to know what I'm talking about...and ZH used to be that way too, funny how quickly things can change.

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 17:38 | 58074 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The status quo has to change, the current set of gangsters in charge needs to be thrown out..

It won't be easy, and they won't leave just because we tell them they have been found out.

They are experts at misdirection, disinformation, using straw men, red herrings, ad hominem attacks... They have a goddamn playbook on how to deal with dissenting intellectuals, thats why we need some rednecks up in the mix, they are much less predictable!

Lets enrage the rednecks, yee ha!

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 17:56 | 58085 Budd Fox
Budd Fox's picture

It was so bloody evident ystrday!!!

S&P Futures ramped up to show a +0.80% opening...then the plunge 'cause nobody bought that shitty tale.

Then volumes thrown to 5 junk bankrupt banks stocks and the ETF to ramp it back above 1000...psyops and plunge riggin team at work!!!

 

U r right, u could just stop watchin and buy ETF between 3 and 3.30 and sell on close...surefire paper worthless gains!!

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 18:03 | 58090 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Be afraid ,be very afraid. That goes for anyone LONG OR SHORT. GTFO of the market and be liquid. Very liquid.

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 18:41 | 58138 walküre
walküre's picture

+100

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 18:09 | 58095 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Interesting

Hong Kong recalls gold reserves, touts high-security vault

In a challenge to London, Asian states invited to store bullion closer to home
Explore related topics
Banks Asia Pacific
Story Comments Screener (176)
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By Chris Oliver, MarketWatch

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Hong Kong is pulling all its physical gold holdings from depositories in London, transferring them to a high-security depository newly built at the city's airport, in a move that won praise from local traders Thursday.

The facility, industry professionals said, would support Hong Kong's emergence as a Swiss-style trading hub for bullion and would lessen London's status as a key settlement-and-storage center.

"Having a central government-sponsored vault would create a situation where you could conceivably look at Hong Kong as being a hub, where metal could be traded for the region," said Sunil Kashyap, managing director at Scotia Capital in Hong Kong, adding that the facility was the first with official government backing in the region.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority, which functions as the territory's unofficial central bank, will transfer its gold reserves stored in other vaults to the depository later this year, the Hong Kong government said in an earlier statement.

The monetary authority reported $63 million in physical gold reserves as of July 31, according to its International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity statement. The authority wouldn't disclose where the reserves are held, but local media reports cited gold traders as saying that London's the most likely location.

Traders said the new depository facility could also foster new financial products, such as exchange-traded funds based on precious metals.

The 3,660-square-foot depository, located at the city's main Chek Lap Kok Airport, will serve as a "storage facility for local and overseas government institutions," according to the government statement.

Martin Hennecke, a financial advisor with the Hong Kong-based Tyche Group Ltd., said that could be appealing to regional central banks unnerved after watching the global financial system teeter on verge of implosion last year.

"Central banks are increasingly aware of the importance of having gold reserves at time of financial crisis and having it easily available at their own disposal," he said.

Meanwhile, local newspaper reports said the Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange had signed an agreement to use the depository for its physical settlement and storage needs.

Marketing efforts will be launched to convince Asian central banks to transfer their gold reserves to the Hong Kong facility, according to reports citing Raymond Lai, finance director with the Hong Kong Airport Authority.

Efforts will also be made to reach out to commodity exchanges, banks, precious-metals refiners and ETF providers, the reports said.

Management firm Value Partners planned to launch an ETF gold fund that will use Hong Kong instead of London as a repository for the gold backing the fund, local reports said Thursday.

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 21:34 | 58307 Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

Yea.......If you have purchased gold I recommend you take delivery too....the music is starting to wind down....

Fri, 09/04/2009 - 05:11 | 58444 FreddyInBangkok
FreddyInBangkok's picture

perfect ... a commie gub sponsored vault. just the place.

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 18:18 | 58108 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

tsk...tsk... tsk....

someone more informed than I am is reported to have said that "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"....

I wonder if that is not what is being played out here?

Billy Bob

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 18:39 | 58135 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Hong Kong recalls gold reserves, touts high-security vault

In a challenge to London, Asian states invited to store bullion closer to home

Explore related topics
Banks Asia Pacific
Story Comments Screener (187)
Alert Email Print Share

By Chris Oliver, MarketWatch

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Hong Kong is pulling all its physical gold holdings from depositories in London, transferring them to a high-security depository newly built at the city's airport, in a move that won praise from local traders Thursday.

The facility, industry professionals said, would support Hong Kong's emergence as a Swiss-style trading hub for bullion and would lessen London's status as a key settlement-and-storage center.

"Having a central government-sponsored vault would create a situation where you could conceivably look at Hong Kong as being a hub, where metal could be traded for the region," said Sunil Kashyap, managing director at Scotia Capital in Hong Kong, adding that the facility was the first with official government backing in the region.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority, which functions as the territory's unofficial central bank, will transfer its gold reserves stored in other vaults to the depository later this year, the Hong Kong government said in an earlier statement.

The monetary authority reported $63 million in physical gold reserves as of July 31, according to its International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity statement. The authority wouldn't disclose where the reserves are held, but local media reports cited gold traders as saying that London's the most likely location.

Traders said the new depository facility could also foster new financial products, such as exchange-traded funds based on precious metals.

The 3,660-square-foot depository, located at the city's main Chek Lap Kok Airport, will serve as a "storage facility for local and overseas government institutions," according to the government statement.

Martin Hennecke, a financial advisor with the Hong Kong-based Tyche Group Ltd., said that could be appealing to regional central banks unnerved after watching the global financial system teeter on verge of implosion last year.

"Central banks are increasingly aware of the importance of having gold reserves at time of financial crisis and having it easily available at their own disposal," he said.

Meanwhile, local newspaper reports said the Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange had signed an agreement to use the depository for its physical settlement and storage needs.

Marketing efforts will be launched to convince Asian central banks to transfer their gold reserves to the Hong Kong facility, according to reports citing Raymond Lai, finance director with the Hong Kong Airport Authority.

Efforts will also be made to reach out to commodity exchanges, banks, precious-metals refiners and ETF providers, the reports said.

Management firm Value Partners planned to launch an ETF gold fund that will use Hong Kong instead of London as a repository for the gold backing the fund, local reports said Thursday.

Thu, 09/03/2009 - 20:16 | 58239 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Hey Robot,
When will you post an article again? Did we scare you away last week?

Fri, 09/04/2009 - 07:19 | 58458 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

well said, Billy Bob.  There is no "market" in the sense of a free exchange among traders, it's all manipulated every single day.

No big moves until after Labor Day BTW - these are just the preliminary tremors, some folks who got the memo but decided to ignore their Masters and jump the gun. Not a big deal to overcome those slight imperfections in the plan, as a certain amount of greed in the gun jumpers was expected and planned for.  Will be curious to see who bails before Labor Day.

Fri, 09/04/2009 - 08:34 | 58491 gmak
gmak's picture

IN spite of the ramp up at day's end, the market is looking tired. It is not rallying big on good news.

Sometimes, when I'm lying awake at night I wonder, "Does skynet fear the long week-end?", and "Do Androids dream of electric sheep?".

In other words - what will happen as positions are squared into the long week-end? I'm expecting a sell off at the end of today, but I'm just not sure.

 

Fri, 09/04/2009 - 12:06 | 58679 darkness (not verified)
darkness's picture

. If the mortgage is will Wells, what's the chance they just "write off" these mortgages and the BIL gets to live there forever, for free?

good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions

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