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332 Days Till Dow 36,000, As SPY Has Become A 4x Leveraged ETF On The XLF
At today's rate of market melt up, we will hit Dow 36,000 in 332 days, or on March 12, 2011. This should occur a few days before Bernanke finally agrees to raise the discount rate to 0.50 bps. Also, at today's rate of price change, we will hit $715/bbl on the same day. We are confident that gas at $30/gallon will cause the Fed Chief Execution Officer to evaluate his conclusion that his brilliant monetary policy is not causing the single biggest asset bubble in US history. Last and not least, total US Federal debt on that day will be about $14.5 trillion, and when adding all the off-balance sheet items, should hit about $120 trillion. We have less than a year before total Alice In Wonderland oblivion. Oh, and since the latest episode of market melt up began, the SPY is trading as a 4x leveraged ETF on the XLF. Ignore that this statement makes no sense. Just buy. Buy everything. Then repo it to the Fed, they are particularly receptive to used single ply toilet paper, and then buy on repo margin. Insanity is here.
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is there any point in these posts?
I think he's just venting.
If this post is for venting, let me do so.
Prechter and the rest of the bear crew = FAIL
*Thanks for "saving" your customers money by skipping the 100% rally.
Yes, that markets are nothing of the sort. They are merely interventions. Banks are growing 4X the rest of the market. Makes sense right?
Point is that every one of these banks is insolvent. period. They are worth nothing. Yet they go up every day.
Go ahead sue me JP Morgan, that way I can get under the hood and look at all those HELOCs you have valued at par.
The banks are worth nothing, and their stocks are appreciating in terms of dollars, so logically dollars are worth...
... less than nothing?
Dude,
You're a guest in Tyler's home. Show some respect to the host.
I like his venting, and yes there is no point unless someone here is brand new.
in which case, they have to fight.
Shorts are trapped -- it's a squeeze -- it goes on longer than "anyone can possibly believe."
In other news, the sun rose in the east this morning.
new moon tomorrow. all traditional indicators are meaningless and that's the last one I have to go on. if we don't drop, then I will have to agree and do what Tyler says, buy it all.
And it just so happens, according to the below link, that the 1930 rally topped out on April 16.
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/
I don't think it's going to matter what you own when this bubble pops....
bubble? what bubble? the government tells me there are currently no bubbles anywhere. so you must be mistaken.
LOL
As a child, after complaining to my mother that I couldn't find my ( fill in the blank ) she would always come back with the classic one liner "You can't find what you're not looking for".
It only took me a few years to figure out two things, that Mom wasn't gonna help me find whatever I was not looking very hard for and that I should stop asking her for help.
I was then, and remain now, a slow learner. :>)
Current and past administrations, remind me a bit of:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wBkTUzKAiXQ
This graph looks like the goddamn mountain climber on the Price is Right.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqMVjsaGEZo
Humor, you have to have it. Having no humor is like not having a disk between the C2 and C3 vertebra. You can take the pain for only so long without each.
I still don't understand why anyone is so surprised that the market is going up. We're still considerably below our all time highs. Last March was basically a statistical blip in the greater scheme of things.
Don't keep seeking a "correction" when we're not even close to the highs. When we get up there, then start looking to correct something. Right now, as far as the market is concerned, there's nothing to correct.
exactly! There's a bunch of the ZH crowd that can't seem to get their head around this. They're all waiting for the other shoe to drop... well it is, sort of, in a way.
You don't understand why the market isn't at all time highs?
You sound like Cramer; 'the market is going up because stocks are being bought so the market will keep going up'. That's not a reason, that's an observation.
Your fixation with new highs is good sign of euphoria. You may be right but not as a matter of reason. Enjoy it.
I'm not surprised to see it up; after all, the banks are allowed to legally obfuscate the truth of their financial health via the suspension of FASB 157.
I just want some ACTION - up or down!!! This is dead.
You sound like, my mom, my grandmom, my coworkers, my friends, my dog.....this is getting crowded
No, you really don't get it. You could have an appreciating stock market in dollar terms, but in real terms be sliding backwards: upward moving stock market (in dollars) and it losing real value at the same time.
Why? Well I'll tell you why, and most of this info has been talked about on ZH. We have an election year this year, There has been alot more information coming out how politisized the Fed has become in the relatively recent past. The American populous doesn't sit well with a crashing market (2007 anyone?) but since the Fed and the quants think they've figured out how to do alchemy, they're gunning the market, and (read) "managing" the gold, oil and currency markets. At some point something's going to give, but it is inadvisable to get in front of it. I'm not saying we won't have a correction, but I wouldn't stand in front of this train, and I very well expect stocks to be a place for newly printed money to flow.
This strategy will work until it suddenly does not.
No, you really don't get it. You could have an appreciating stock market in dollar terms, but in real terms be sliding backwards: upward moving stock market (in dollars) and it losing real value at the same time.
Why? Well I'll tell you why, and most of this info has been talked about on ZH. We have an election year this year, There has been alot more information coming out how politisized the Fed has become in the relatively recent past. The American populous doesn't sit well with a crashing market (2007 anyone?) but since the Fed and the quants think they've figured out how to do alchemy, they're gunning the market, and (read) "managing" the gold and currency and oil markets. At some point something's going to give, but it is inadvisable to get in front of it. I'm not saying we won't have a correction, but I wouldn't stand in front of this train, and I very well expect stocks to be a place for newly printed money to flow.
This strategy will work until it suddenly does not.
The strategy will work until the rug is pulled out. Or until the music suddenly stops. At that point you will have to scramble to be one of those who lands on his feet, or manages to find that last chair. If you don't, you will get wiped out.
And on that day, spot Silver will close at $17.85.
Some things never change.
You know the .gov is praying to God that the mother fucking outlyer, housing, catches fire.
Understatement of the decade and it ain't gonna happen!
BOO YA - another RIDICULOUS move up on NO PHUCKING volume or volatility whatsoever.
Praise be to the central bank do-gooders...may they all rot in HELL.
We're definitely seeing stronger volume today. BTW: for all the "where's the volume" crowd, look at Ritholtz blog today. As I've been pointing out, volume might be down from last year but certainly not down over the longer period. Don't keep fooling yourselves with the "low volume" mantra.
Does volume in stocks like FNM, FRE, C, AIG, ABK count?
Trust me, you're clueless. Volume is nowhere save the rebate en masses stks.
Picture's worth a thousand words - here you go. Look for yourself: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/04/nyse-volume-changes/
Listen to the parent... you have to discount HFT to get the real interest in this market.
Harry, can you read a graph? Cause the second chart does not illustrate whatever point you are attempting to make.
Hey bozo - i track the volume DAILY and it is preposterously low compared to a "normal" market. The NYSE vol. on bigcharts is barely north of 1 billion per day and the ES is way below normal. AND NO, i am not comparing it to when all hell broke loose last year.
Please see the above link to volume. You should understand better after seeing it with your own eyes.
So just WTF is your agenda?
Could we just insert this stimulus sign picture to each graph posted here: http://dealbreaker.com/_old/2009/10/14/stimulus_sign1.jpg
We are just repaving over our easy credit mistakes all the way back to DOW 14000. all is well!
Not only did they waste our money on the BS Recovery and Reimvestment act but they added insult to injury by spending money on the stupid sign.
i'm ready to short - any suggestions?
note that i have just a simple banking brokerage account and would probably need to buy an etf.
Don't. No at this level. It's suicidal. Wait until at least 1225 before a short term pull back. Otherwise you're shooting yourself.
what the fuck are u talking about?? Didn't you just say a few posts ago it isn't pulling back until it gets near the high??? And 1225 isn't near the SP high.
I said, we'll see maximum 5% pull backs at times. 1225 area is one of those areas that the market will run into an oversold condition to pull back a bit. The real pull back of over 10% won't happen until we challenge the all time highs. That's what I said.
why is every other post from you, you fucking retard? you don't have a clue what you're talking about so just stfu! 1225 is overbought but 1210 isn't? you dumbshit, we're overbought off the charts on every indicator imaginable. We've gone straight up for two straight months and 170 SPX points.
all right, i'll wait till 1225. then how should i short?
Depends upon your risk tolerance. SDS is double leveraged ETF short SPX. In a shallow pull back, as that one would be, it would bring larger gains.
isn't that one of the etfs that one must close each day? is there something i can hold a position for up to a week?
You can hold it as long as you like. Just don't hold it on the losing side.
why dont you two fools exchange emails or something and stop spamming here. ty
Zero hedge comments is bad place for stock advice.
ok, then. should i pick a pink tie or gray - what do you think?
I wouldn't wear a tie at all, lowers the IQ via reduced blood flow. Tie less = MAXIQ
Don't listen to that Wanger retard. Stay away from leveraged ETFs for a million of reasons. The biggest reason is that they're broken instruments if your holding period is greater than intraday. If you're looking to short, then go with a long dollar or treasury strategy or long dated index put options.
Timing the trade is an individual responsibility. Don't go asking Wangtards for when and then come back pissed. Goodluck with it.
i haven't done anything yet!
what is an example of a "long dollar" or "long treasury" strategy?
how long is a long put?
Google is your friend.
Crazy as it seems, there's no real structural weakness in this market right now, and fighting a trend is just a fast way to lose money. I think Harry's probably right, best we'll see is pullbacks to the 20dma, then more upside.
Absolutely right. You almost certainly will not have a correction of any size with this many stocks making new highs.
Transports are confirming.
Even as the VIX, put/call and Newsweek indicator are ringing a bell.
I find it disturbing that everyone seems to think that the stock market is where the bubble is, and that just any day now it's going to pop. You might be holding your breath a long time. We just might see DOW 36,000, then DOW 132,000!!!! It's inflation, the bubble is in Treasuries and in currencies. We could have a stock market correction or crash and never know it by the price of the DOW.
Think outside of the box people. Think the unthinkable!
You are correct in regards to inflation. As inflation get higher and higher at some point, the market will continue higher even if there is a bubble popped elsewhere. You hit it on the head.
the unthinkable = a down day in the market.
What you should find disturbing is that the stock market has gone Zimbabwe. Do you think you can buy, buy, buy your way to wealth during a hyperinfiation?
John Williams is right, we are screwed.
That's pretty much what I'm saying, but I'm not stupid, I don't own stocks (other than natural resource stocks). I'm saying don't get in front of it, cause you're likely to get run over.
Yes, we likely will have hyperinflation at some point, then possibly a deflationary collapse (in terms of gold), but since you are aware of it, you should be able to avoid being "screwed".
Any similarities here?
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/20061206/hrare-zimbabwe-stock-exchange-bull-run.htm
Truly Breadth-taking, and having re-re evaluated my positions.....kewl-aid it is....
Theres no dought now that all this liquid spec-ops is speeding up uncontrollably
For every action there is a re-action, the weakness is where?
Well I for one am looking forward to it. At this rate I figure Bank of America should be trading around 320 bucks by the end of August. Who wouldn't buy that!?
well this is just a fitting end of a day that started with bloomberg's coverage of jamie dimon entering JPM building. What a winner, such a golden boy, so much prize and recognition at a man of his talent and finally such an insightful analysis at the difficult process to find a replacement of his stature as he retires!. Thank you bloomberg ! I felt like vomiting. The worse is that he might decide to do a service to humanity and do some public service after leaving the bank
Everyone is saying Bernanke is doing a good job but he aint doing jack...all he does is keep interest low for infinity....he aint done jack shit.
Hi All,
I've got some great deals here:
1. Tulips
2. Pets.com stock
3. Cabage Patch Dolls
4. Beenie Babies
All for very cheap! Buy before the price rises!
Email me at: benankebucks@suckers.org
Seriously - what happens should the VIX hit zero? It seems like no one or no computer will stop this upward trend..
Frankly I think this is where it just starts to get interesting.
So, you are a big Cramer fan and just booked a ton of paper profit over the past year. Now, you want to spend that *money", perhaps on a foreclosed home, because your cash flow is not that great and you don't have much savings.
Oh wait a second, you have to sell in order to use those paper gains to buy something. Doh!
The King has no clothes! The King has no clothes!
There, I said it. Now the markets will crash.
Soros urging caution? whats he up to?
http://blogs.reuters.com/fundshub/tag/george-soros/
What is up ... he sounds like a Republican ... there has to be madness in his method
Moderate sell-off in the morning after pre-market futures gains, then commence the low volume afternoon melt up, rinse, repeat, see you tomorrow....
the s&p chart from mid feb looks like Bernie Madoffs chart of returns....and likely based on the same merits
Seeing all this,
Fed triQEry...
mark-to-Valhalla...
EE's minimal backstop, not rescuing Greece but just barely averting default...
No exit strategy in sight...
Could it be they intend the acrobat to keep edging along the tightrope,
ever correcting and counterbalancing and compensating,
as a PERMANENT modus vivendi?
Can they possibly be right?!?
** (dons asbestos suit)
36,000? How about 36,000,000? “an index of German share prices (1913 = 100) rose from 126 in January 1918 to 531,300,000 in September 1923, and to 23,680,000 million in November 1923 amidst extremely high volatility. (In dollar terms, because of the currency depreciation, the same index (1913 = 100) fell from 101.55 in January 1918 to 2.72 in October 1922, before recovering to 39.36 in November 1923.) The extremely high volatility of the stock market is a typical feature of hyper-inflating economies.” Marc Faber – Reflation, 2003 re:Professor Bresciani- Turroni in The Economics of Inflation (first published in 1931 and reprinted by Augustus M. Kelley, London, in 1968).
ROFL @ R-squared .99
We will know in the fullness of time whether of not this is a suckers rally or not. Meantime, if you are not scared you don't get it, I wish you well. Stay disciplined either way.
this regression is on prices...prices aren't stationary...which means that this is basically a pretty eye chart that serves no purpose. if you want to regress, regress returns, daily, monthly, w/e. then you'll have an argument. this is just pretty pictures, oh but they are sooo pretty.
"“I am actually confident that we can work out an effective bipartisan package that assures that we never have too big to fail again,” Obama said today."
Real hard hitting, no nonsense reform that will really bite the financials ... XLF is up only 2.65%
who knwos what is going on
thanks to mchugh, prechter and graham summers i am way down i know that. I have been preparing for a crash since September.
Apart from myself,I cannot believe there is a single short out there left standing,because looking at the intra-day charts,there isn't even a pullback.At this point it surely cannot be a short squeeze,it is simply a liquidity fuelled bubble,manipulated and controlled by the Fed and its agents
But I guess with an infinite supply of money at zero cost this can go on until the Fed decides it has to stop.
I am amazed the Hedge funds aren't beginning to show some signs of shorting this,but I suppose they probably feel like the rest of us,that the Fed has an infinite supply of money against our finite funds,and are waiting for signs,as we all are that the Fed is tiring of the game.
Burnanke's new nickname around the FED office 'Green Dick'
Every day the market goes up it makes more believers that all is well. Maybe some are not buying more stocks, but maybe most are not selling and riding the surf.
The plan is that once they create enough believers critical mass will take over and we will be in 36k sooner than ZH is predicting.
Let those who think they can time the exits play at their own peril
...will cause the Fed Chief Execution Officer to evaluate his conclusion that his brilliant monetary policy is not causing the single biggest asset bubble in US history.
You sound rather confident in that assertion...