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38.2% Retracement On Declining Volume
Some afternoon technicals
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You're now on the archive server. Commenting has been disabled.
Some afternoon technicals
For all you hobby bears out there who were burned last month and are now scared because you think this market is rigged or hyperinflating or just retarted, this is when you go short, when it seems crazy to everyone else. But don't forget your stops -- the market really is retarted, which is why it doesn't read ZH.
oh dear speculator, where were you a month ago :)
word.
- patient bear
I think we'll hit/surpass GS targets of spx1060 - then shorting might be a
possibility for a short-term gamble. Problem is these fuckers know short
interest will rise bigtime after 1060, gun it, and squeeze the nuevo-bears
for all they're worth.
Unless they front run and end it now.
Exactly. Too many bears are expecting the momentum to continue, waiting for a nice "safe" level to short from. If you want safety, buy T-bills. It looks highly likely that this week the dollar made a lasting low, as commodities probably made their highs.
At big turning points, correlations fall apart for a while (witness the SPX vs the Nasdaq this week). Some things keep going while others reverse, but a relationship as strong as the dollar vs stocks will probably stick. My money says the stock market gives, since we reached extreme dollar bearishness -- this is one case in which TD actually is a good contrary indicator (surprising since he otherwise has a good grasp on the mechanics of deflation -- pls correct me if I misunderstand that you remain a dollar bear, TD. Perhaps it is better to say that the vigorous agreement here with your posts about the dollar's many flaws are the better indicator and not you yourself).
I am a huge dollar bear. I am an even huger Euro bear.
what does make you a bull of? commodities and hand grenades?
They are setting China up for a fall. It's the only way to stop them, and to teach them a lesson for not disentangling their currency from the dollar.
No doubt master bubble-blower Goldman Sachs is behind it. Can't say I mind much ... If they're going to be blowing and popping bubbles, and profiting from both sides of the transaction, I'd far rather they be blowing their bubbles outside our borders.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/andy-xie-china-has-become-a-giant-p...
100% agree china is set up to crash. and when it does...you're gonna see the whole thesis for being in commodities crash, and a big retracement in the us markets
you will want to be in the US DOLLAR.
sorry, way too many dollar bears.....i'm taking the other side
I'm with Tripps. 5-10% $USD bulls with equities pulling a Wile E. Coyote in mid-air. Nope. The next head-and-shoulders fake out is the pat pivot at quadruple resistance confluence at COMPQ 2060 where the huge downtrend line from Oct 07-May 08 meets the 200 EMA and two sets of Fib retracements. We may yet go higher than that later in fall, but not before the obvious tag-and-go point gets spoiled early by the Glass Bead masters. The USD has one more good bounce in it before the final swan dive.
That's my story and I'm sticking to it...until I get stopped out anyway.
hey andy ,
so wats your idea when will a pullback happen in india and wat would be a trigger for that to happen and wats safe level to enter ? thanx
IS the question the becomes where the deflation is greater, in Eurozone or in USA.
Do you work for GS btw?
Well I am a huge USD bull and a Euro bear so we will see what the outcome is.
In the meantime extend purchases on products to PayPal as offshore acquisitions difficult when one doesn't have credit cards.
I agree dying bear. GS knows short interest comes in at 38.2% retracement. A nice gun to 50% would do it.
there's no shorting this.
It's retarded to spell it "retarted". Unless you're a baker. But then you should probably use a hyphen.
I was referring to the tarts on CNBC.
It will be a sad day when even an ORCHESTRATED TANK of the markets will not push money into treasuries. What do we do then?
Words of wisdom from an astute speculator.
I have 1014.14 on the SPX. We sit at 1016.83 @ 2:19.
For the technicians, what is the rate of Fib breaking 38.2 and heading to 50?
Next stop would be SPX 1121.44 - give or take a few.
Keep it up Tyler! I love fading you.
Lloyd, is that you?
Gary Weiss?
Cohn, get off the computer, our stock is down because you keep fucking around the net
Lloyd
Absolutely amazing, and its not over yet. They'll manipulate this baby up even
on zero volume.
More time for us to relax through August.
I have the same feeling today that I had back when the djia touched 14,000. The real news was all crap then, and everything was flying up constantly.
As the "first level" managers took over from the "hold down the desk" August stay behinds....
Ah those poor Goldman Sachs computers sitting there holding all those hot potatoes. They need to play more musical chairs and learn how to be SCARED about the music stopping.
No they don't. They have a tap into the Fed and Treasury.
They know EXACTLY when the music will stop.
You might want to see what they'll do next.
Still I am sure we notice how all of the so called sidelined cash is just staying on the sidelines. No follow through volume from mom & pop.
The PSTOP will continue to be pumped even if the Fed starts to purchase stocks outright to keep the market going.
Yes. Goldman Sachs has their hand on the stereo. Everyone ELSE should be concerned about when Goldman will stop the music.
Since the fed can print chairs, there will be more than enough when the music stops (but they'll have only 3 legs and China will have a 1st lien).
Planning on making all of my money back on these CHEAP puts. How beautiful, I can buy them for literally 10% of what they were trading at a week ago. Always worry when the majorit of the market is bullish after a...near 50% run. I mean, the sky isn't falling yet but sweet jesus get real people, look at all the conflicting headlines. Transports are posing at 2009 highs, but China no longer wants any of our goods, baltic index is ominous. I'll enjoy the fact that a market can undo a months worth of work in a matter of hours.
its the same deal on the downside...after we are off 50% then folks get scared. that's when you cover and go long!!!! The market is dynamic and evoloving, yet some things never change...
Puts on what out of curiosity, I see dead people or dead companies everywhere.
IYR, XLF, and ofcourse your meat and potatoes, the SPY
What, not NDX?
QQQQ as well, yes.
In a matter of hours. I was thinking days, but hours would be a very interesting sight!
Who writes these headlines?
Could have been Stocks Surge Volume Dives
Not as good as the famous Headless Body In Topless Bar but come on, a little more effort please.
That was the best NY Post headline ever. They don't write 'em like they used to!
MACD falling since 11:30, as well
anyone notice the price action on ole GS today?
the declining volume is leading to further advances. if you bought at a lower level, why would you add to volume now and sell? we have many buyers at lower levels who are simply on a seller's strike, and they have their foots firmly planted on the necks of the bears who said and keep saying that it has come too far too fast.
Huh???
thats dumb
word
Me thinks that is's time to lay off the drugs. Your babble is incoherent.
you make no sense in making sense ( did this just blow your fucking mind )
hahahahahahahahaha
Thanks for the mid-day comic relief!
what's Macke doing here?
I am waiting for the 10yr to reach 4% again before shorting. Be aware that theyre monetizing more debt on both Monday and tuesday so that will provide support for the market.
Yo TD, I know you have to feed the monkey but the placement of that new ad at the top of every article sucks. My fat fingers almost send me to Interbank everytime I open an article
indulge it a little longer.
Firefox and Ad blocker plus plug-in. No more adds in your browser ever.
shhh
TD,
do you get $ just for click-thrus, or are there bonus incentives if we sign up? I'd be down to spend a few minutes just making accounts on these sites. We need to feed the resistance.
C'mon man... ads keep the doors open and the lights turned on. Embrace the ads and click a few a day. Our man TD needs the love.
I'll have my bot click away for a few hours if it will help.
no need. google is smarter than it looks
i agree.
Time to purchase a t-shirt for family & friends.....
Look to Shanghai folks. It's time.
The Baltic Dry Index is collapsing, 20% this week, 35% since mid June. FXI not playing along today.
well its about time it goes down; it was the most overvalued index on the planet ( DJIA, SPX, NASDAQ included )
As much as everyone thinks this rally is done, it is not. Eraser head promised China that he would stop goosing the markets AFTER August is done. 24 days and counting.
Volume is an over-rated lagging indicator. We have HFT now.
A good point indeed.
They go up. They go down. Please stop crying about the market. Focus on the important issues. Shine the daylight,but the relentless negative vibe serves no purpose. Markets are subjective which simply means there is nobody but yourself who can know what is right for you to do. We are in the midst of historic events, all of us. Action follows thought. Keep your mind open and let go of the anger.
G20 consider shorting markets as atheism and have concurred that riping off the shorts was a good device in order to reduce the derivatives (5 banks in USA share 85 % of the derivatives)
Banks profits are faked (so faked that they do not lend to each other so freely)
No remedies have been brought as a mean to reduce the 4 quadrillion usd derivatives by ways of increasing the margin on derivatives,earmarking a larger share of the Banks own funds.
Banks derivatives subsidise the government bonds interest rates, the share prices of Banks collateral in LBOs
The collusion, conflict of interest between banks and government bodies have reached an extreme detrimental to value,market pricing,real prices and economic equilibrium.
GS stk is TANKING NOW!!!
GS Share in RED TANKING NOW!!! Its a leading indicator!!! Get your short orders ready guys!!!
Why is GS down 1% while most financials are up? Not that I'm complaining, just wondering.
The problem with most people that trade markets is that they are so grounded in rationality that they expect a logical answer to questions like these. Truth is that there is no logical answer, or even if there was some direct path with which you could trace out a reason for stock fluctuations, the likelihood of you and I ever knowing them is slim to none. Best always to just trade the tape never losing too far sight of the fundamentals.
Probably because todays shenanigans got too expensive.
http://www.321gold.com/fed/temp_bank_res.html
Wednesday 7/22 was still the most expensive day but damn 12 billion is alot.
An orgy of irrational exuberance! What a fucking joke.
"Recession is over in U.S., Germany, Barclays says"
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/recession-is-over-in-us-germany-barclay...
I hate to think all these bulls are going to party this weekend with MY MONEY.
While i'm stuck at home watching Star Trek re-runs and eating Top Ramen
for dinner.
I find they cook better with my short-CRE tears....
You have my condolences, the CRE rise was esspecially terrible. They need
to start a 12-step shorting support group.
step one...be patient
step two...salmon always return to swim upstream.
step three..bear eats salmon.
step four...TARP-strapped hunter sees bear
step five...TARP-strapped hunter kills bear
step six...TARP-strapped hunter eats bear for dinner
step 7...TARP strapped hunter eats too much bear.
step 8...TARP strapped hunter gets blockage.
step 9...TARP strapped hunter rolls over and dies.
In a rare moment of Barclays back slapping... Perhaps they know something since they are the worlds best at stripping header information from the international transfers....
The biggest news for the country over the last few days that the markets will have to digest at some point wasn't a data release, or analyst upgrade, or even a bearish prognosticator throwing in the capitulation towel...no, the biggest news was the encouragement and sanctioning of violence and goonery against citizens by other citizens from the highest office in our land. A line has been crossed.
Rahm here. My sources say you're comments are fishy...
FBI at GS...Could be why its down today;)
GS has been weak since yesterday afternoon. Something going on.
Another upstanding Goldman alum in trouble. South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford's wife and sons move out of Governor's mansion this afternoon. I guess Ms. Sanford had enough of his lyin' cheatin' ass.
BBBY only down 14% off peak bubble numbers. By the way insiders dumped that one about 10 points ago.
They’re the suckers!
this really is kind of interesting with both the dollar and equities so strong today. maybe the tin foil hats are right! :-)
EURUSD simply from a technical standpoint was at a pretty stiff triple top resistance, not surprised to see a sell off and minor strength in dollar. I think the dollar will probably rebound quite a bit, irrespective of the markets and monetization.
you noticed that too....dem pair traders didn't make no dough today, or not like they thought.
Another friggin disconnect in a disconbobulated "free market". One day wonder or something else?
And tinfoil is bullpoop; it's all true dammit!
"And tinfoil is bullpoop; it's all true dammit!"
:-)
BAC just broke through LOD
To be honest, I'm beginning to be sick with this site.
It just keeps scaring people and with what results?
what´s the purpose?
To wait for a small pullback, and then try to say : See I was right?
Come on!....
bye bye
To be honest, TD has never offered investment advice. This website is in no way a direct message to go short the markets, but simply exposes the decaying correlation of the markets with reality. If you choose to short based on that, then that is your perogative.
I have actually made some good money fading TD.
You are the fucking the balls, man. Don't sell yourself short, though (pun noticed). You don't need TD to play off ...you would excel at whatever you do simply due to your general awesomeness. You are the markets. Thanks for being you, and for showing for up for life everyday.
The Fed is like the gambling crazy brother in law with an enthusiastic business proposition. We are not waiting for a small pullback. We are waiting for 4000 point turd to plop in the toilet. The destruction of every large corporation on this planet and the golden age of small and mid sized business that doesn't run around screwing everybody over because it's not big enough powerful enough and stupid enough to think it can pull it off. Where people can buy 20 different kinds of computers and don't have to sit around and be Mac assholes or PC assholes because everything is built and made not with purpose of being proprietary and monopolistic but through convention and cooperation. Where nobody listens to some people and other people are paid millions to give a speach. You know the only thing that will really work equality. Not a few people pushing everybody into a tiny conciousness thats too small and too stupid for everybody to fit in. Too hold people responsible for the great power they weild until it shatters them and they stop trying to run everything and create a stupid reality and force us all to live in. To watch everybody quit playing World of Bullshit Craft and take possession of what they need not have it loaned to them by banks and politicians.
I never include volume in all my charts, a habit I formed from trading FX... Works fine. All these markets will make strange moves every once in a while; be it a bank in Singapore that spikes the kiwi to the FED step children in equities with a never ending bid. I've learned to go with the flow and expect anything anytime.
i agree. if you can grow past fundamentals, the manipulated markets trade as well if not better than the unmanipulated.
you just gotta lose that religious fundamentalist attitude.
Some pretty negative ticks just appearing for such an up day
Nice graph, sums things up nicely.
I hate to confess it, but I'm still a lttle confused about the VWAP issue.
Is it possible to overlay this chart with the VWAP moving averages. It would help if I could visualize the gap between the close price and the VWAP over time.
Thanks
Because of pennies, volume IS manipulated. Volume ain't what it used to be, but what is? OBV used to be a good indicator but doubt has crept in to my mind (at least).
Balance of Power versus the might penny...lots of intent there, right? Fits well with dark pool sheeenaeeginz:)
I am just a novice who reads these posts mostly for mathematical/economic interest.
Tyler has this post tagged "fibonacci." How and why do you use Fibonacci numbers for analysis in this case?
Thanks.
it is not Fibonacci numbers used in this sort of analysis its fibonacci retracements http://www.fibonaccigenius.com/
Perfect. Thanks
The Golden Ratio is found by simply dividing any number in the sequence by the number that follows it.
Key ratios of the Fib retracement are (0%,38.2%,50%,61.8%,100%). When plotting these ratios against price action, you'll identify 2 extreme points (0% and 100%) of a given move. You'll see within this major move; partial moves that "float" to the key ratios.
If you continue down the rabbit hole utilizing fractal theory, you start to see ridiculous things that'll blow your fucking mind... god I love fractals
"If you continue down the rabbit hole utilizing fractal theory, you start to see ridiculous things that'll blow your fucking mind... god I love fractals"
My goal with trading is to at least break even while saving money on LSD.
Seriously though, there´s a lot of utility in fractals from the perspective of trading without making predictions, letting market data determine your positions, stops and profit targets. There´s also a lot of insight into complex system dynamics that applies to a lot of other things. You just don´t get that playing WoW or Tetris.
Thanks for the primer, zarrmax.
Thanks.
"""FBI at GS...Could be why its down today;)"""
Well, they are meeting on how to colloborate in future for better action on guys GS don't like.
tho usually they leave the paperbag under a park bench ... hmm
Many in the FBI have accounting backgrounds, WHO WANTS TO MAKE A NAME FOR THEMSELVES?
Who will be the next Eliot Ness?
Someone in the FBI will read this, and think - Why not me?
unbearable lightness of consumer spending...
Alas, it looks like they didn't get Obama's message re: their 401'ks.
Consumer credit decreased at twice the expected rate in June
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQMezopEEsH8
hey Tyler, please report your findings on MVOLNYE on bloomberg. volume looks strong huh? Does to me.
What is the trend ? .. if up then higher price on lighter volume does that normally indicate no sellers ? ... If we had some climactic action late last year and then a low volume secondary test in March ... all sellers have been exhausted and we had a change in trend no? ... I am waiting for a clear sign that supply has overcome demand, and then may in fact wait for the secondary test ...
Are you suggesting that this rally is poor off the lows and is indicative of a lack of demand in the grand scheme of things ? I guess it depends on which time frame you trade ...
I was stopped out of my short this morning ..... I am so confused .
Volume on the SPY has declined since the rally began but so have shares outstanding. Volume on the SPX Index or the Generic 1st futures ES1 has returned to the pre meltdown levels.
Actually volume has been INCREASING this week. Check out the NYSE total volume. Since July its been regularly around 1 billion and dipped below it several times. It has close around 1.4 billion every day this week, if not higher. At the very least volume is on the rebound, not sure why it left, but looks like people are more interested in buying and/or selling now.
public participation phase of the this bear rally.
oh dont mind them, those are just the bulltards.
Anyone else notice that the last time we had a rally this strong against a move in the dollar of this size was the first week in June, after which the market promptly reversed?
Glad to see dying Bear is back- this site needs all the humor it can salvage
It smells like bear capitulation around here.
My $VIX daily chart is signaling a bullish warning signal, so we'll see if the S&P 500 runs up to the 80-week EMA (the $RUT is testing it now) before the $VIX really spikes up
80-week EMA for the $SPX is around 1040
One event worth mentioning is the $HSCEI formed a bearish outside reversal bar on the weekly
Plenty of churning going on at retracement levels
Tyler,
What is the price to earning ratio for the SP500? Can you use your Bloomberg and get us the realtime number.
Thanks
J
Andy,
Why do they list operating earnings, What Does Operating Earnings Mean?
Profits after subtracting expenses such as marketing, cost of goods sold, administration and general operating costs from revenue.
All of this is part of operating a business, why do they back it out?
here's another note on $SPX valuation
http://dshort.com/articles/2009/SP-Composite-pe-ratios.html
In trading you take a position (like I did several times in this rally)if it breaks to new highs your wrong -> exit position -> go long. Chuck the ego story bullshit. I think GS looks awesome as a short here.
Talk about a company that had it's fifteen minutes of fame.
Darthman will go down! 75% of the economy is dependent on the consumer that is the big dog. Goldman is the flea on that puppy.
$TWII also formed a bearish outside reversal candle on the weekly...as did the $sox/smh
Yes, $TWII looks quite shaky, and the Sensex weekly doesn't look so good either, and the $STI also produced the bearish ORW candle
And after studying some $USD charts and some ratios, I'd say that technically I'm not so bearish the $USD anymore
This site should be renamed "Zero Profits"
Only the US treasury market can crash US equity party, and at at less than 4% 10 yr, no one is hurting yet.
True the fx-equity correlation is strong, but that just means the USD is used as funding currency for foreign investors in foreign equities and commodities. So I agree emg mkts equities, comod, emg mkt bonds are in deep trouble if usd continues to rise. But USD-based investors will then pull their usd back and guess where the money will go? into the Treasuries and us bond mkt to drive yield lower, and US equities would bennefit. So long us and short emrg mkts/commod is the correct short to medium term trade.
sick and tried of people's comments like "zero profits", fading trades blah blah blah
you want advice go sign up at the street dot com they'll make you a bundle you ass clowns
do some friggin homework and use sites as intended INFORMATION !!!
looking for the majic bullet? just put it in your brain, NO ONE will ever devulge their edge if it works ... STOP BEING LAZY !!!!
God whats heppened to people here? Success of this site may be its demise if ass clowns are constantly making BS comments like Ive seen over the last few days.
sorry for my rant but there are some very good comments here and some really f*** up ones. On balance still not bad, btw I am in "the business" and TD et al do some great work - and dig for info, you should be lucky he summarizes it here, becasue some things he presents here i use and have had to dig for myself, I now use this as a short cut, and if dont look right verify on my own
NICE WORK TD !!!!
Please disable anonymous posts TD.
Jerk.
Hi Andy Dufresne. I agree with you that India looked attractive at 8000. I am in india now and what i gather from some of my colleagues and friends in India suggests that may be it's another bubble in the making here.
A few of their concerns.
1) Big Banks in India are restructuring their Loans in a way as to keep the NPA ( Non Performing Assets)by moving the hit they had to take to a later point of time ( Amount restructured in H109 #45k Cr ($9bn)
2) Every co is going for a QIP (Qualified Institutional Placement) to reduce their debt from March
3) Real estate co's are selling their land holding and houses at less than half of what they paid for during 2005-2007, but still showing a profit.
4) No Rainfall so far. ( agriculture is major income source)
5) Many Companies are not layingoff people ( due to stigma and pension aspects) but are forcing employees to resign by threatining about references and such. Salaries are cut by 40% from levels in 2007 ( mostly in IT)
6) 80% of the current Indian budget has to be borrowed and if state deficits are included the 09-10 budget deficit will be 14% of GDP ( Govt Est)
I wonder where the demand is going to come from when the biggest export market is under stress and Internal demand seems to be shrinking. What will sustain the market at these levels other than the huge hot money flowing in to India ( FII's).
Marc
Useful info., thanks.
Gotta love the jam on the continuing claims headline number decline while the true count of continuing unemployed hits a new high of 3.95mm counting the rolloffs into emergency benefits extension programs. I guess when those are exhausted, it'll be super-bullish!
err... 9.35mm. late night dyslexia.
IT'S .382...NOT "38.2" WHICH MAY SUGGEST YOU'RE IN OVER YOUR HEAD OR AT LEAST ABOVE YOUR GOLDEN MEAN.
SIGNED ,
A 15TH CENTURY MATHMETICIAN