Is 40 The New 20?

Via Pension Pulse.

On Tuesday, April 26th, I turn 40 years old. Every man I've talked to tells me "turning 40 is easy, wait till 50 hits you -- that's a tough one!". There are some excellent blog posts on turning 40, like this one, but I decided to write something different and hopefully this post will give young and old food for thought as I jot down my thoughts on life, health, relationships, work and investing.

Before I get to "turning 40," I want to go back to my last blog post on the big secret to clarify a few things. First, I never heard of Joel Greenblatt nor of his hedge fund, Gotham Capital (it vaguely rings a bell). Second, even though I agree with him that most small investors are better off investing in Value Index ETFs in their stock portfolios, I also recognize that it all depends on where markets are at the time. For example, when I wrote my Outlook 2009 on post-deleveraging blues back in January 2009, I totally missed the boat on US banks but was spot on about high beta stocks and recommended some gems like Priceline (PCLN) that turned out to be one of the top performing large cap stocks since then, going from $40 to over $500.

I think what Mr. Greenblatt is recommending makes sense over a very long period because with small cap value stocks, you shouldn't experience the volatility of large cap growth stocks. Having said this, nobody knows what the future holds, where the next bubble will be and how long it will last, which means that things can get really out of whack for a lot longer than people expect.

In my last post, I also mentioned that I prefer investing in a few stocks which I track very closely. I'm a risk taker. My personal P&L swung from -50% to +80% in the last year because I tripled down on a position at the right time. Did I get lucky? You bet I did, and admit it, but at the end of the day, I had the balls to do what most institutional investors (even hedge funds) would never do (not that they can do it even if they wanted to because they're constrained by investment management agreements). And forget prop traders, they would never triple down on any position that they're losing money on. That's suicide in their world where they're focused on making money day in, day out, trying to avoid having a risk manager breathing down their neck.

I did what I did because I read the overall market correctly, understood that liquidity would push risk assets higher, and also understood that the solar stock I tripled down on was heavily manipulated by top hedge funds which were naked short-selling it to scare retail investors away so they can scoop up more shares at lower prices. They're still at the naked short-selling game, using high frequency computers to scare retail and other institutional investors away.

These markets are not for the feint of heart, which is why I believe most small investors are better off investing in low cost value ETFs and laddered bond portfolios and sleep well at night. The gold bugs will tell you to buy gold but I'm uneasy recommending gold because I don't see any reason to chase it higher. In fact, as the US economy improves over the next few months, gold prices will likely get hit even if oil prices keep climbing higher and Inflationistas warn of looming hyperinflation (won't happen without wage inflation).

The other thing I mentioned in my last blog post is that I track quarterly filings of elite hedge funds, some of which I listed in a previous blog post on why small is beautiful. I also track top long-only funds that are not afraid of taking concentrated positions (ie. they're not closet indexers). Guys like Bill Miller of Legg Mason Capital Management didn't beat the S&P 500 16 years in a row by being a closet indexer. Sure, he got slaughtered in 2008 -- and so did Ken Griffin's fund, Citadel -- but these funds came roaring back in the last two years. I wouldn't have hesitated a minute to increase allocations to these funds at the bottom when most institutions were redeeming from them because I knew they'd come roaring back (even recommended institutions invest in Citadel in the middle of the storm).

All this to say that even "elite" managers can experience a terrible drawdown, but over a long period, these elite managers know how to adjust their risk taking accordingly. You won't find many managers with the track record of a Warren Buffet, George Soros, Bill Miller, Ken Griffin, Seth Klarman, Jim Simons, Ray Dalio, Bruce Covner, Alan Howard, and a handful of other "elite" managers.

But now that I'm turning 40, let me introduce you to two of my favorite investment managers of all-time. The first is Monroe Trout, arguably one of the best traders ever. There is a whole chapter dedicated to him in Jack Schwager's book, The New Market Wizards, with the title of the chapter "The Best Return That low Risk Can Buy". According to Schwager, over a five-year period surveyed, Monroe Trout's average return was 67% "but, astoundingly, his largest drawdown over that entire period was just over 8%." That's simply incredible, almost doubling his money every five years with little or no risk. Mr. Trout quit the business early and remained humble throughout: "Some people make shoes. Some people make houses. We make money, and people are willing to pay us a lot to make money for them."

I referred to the second investment manager I most admire, Andrew Lahde, in my post on Jesse Livermore, Boy Plunger's Pivotal Point Theory:

A hedge fund manager who made what is thought to be one of the biggest percentage profits of all time bowed out of the business on Friday with a fierce attack on the “idiots” running big banks who were willing to take the other side of his bets.

Andrew Lahde, founder of California’s Lahde Capital, used his farewell letter to investors to round on the US “aristocracy” able to pay for their children to gain a top-class education.

Mr Lahde, who has made tens of millions of dollars from his highly successful bets against the financial and property sectors during the past two years, also called for the legalisation of cannabis and said he was now dropping out to spend time with his money.

Saying he was “in this game for the money”, Mr Lahde went on to mock those who traded with him.

“The low-hanging fruit, ie idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale and then the Harvard MBA, was there for the taking.”

“These people who were (often) truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Stearns

and Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government.

“All of this behaviour supporting the aristocracy only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the other side of my trades. God bless America.”

Mr Lahde is one of the few hedge fund managers to have correctly predicted the subprime crisis. One of his funds made a return of 870 per cent last year. Money is now being returned to investors as the remaining business is shut down.

On Friday, Mr Lahde said he would no longer run other people’s money, preferring to concentrate on managing his own, and urged wealthy hedge fund managers and corporate chieftains to “throw the Blackberry away and enjoy life”.

“I will let others try to amass nine, 10 or 11 figure net worths,” he said.

“Meanwhile, their lives suck . . . What is the point? They will all be forgotten in 50 years anyway. Steve Ballmer [Microsoft chief executive], Steven Cohen [founder of hedge fund SAC Capital] and Larry Ellison [chief executive of Oracle] will all be forgotten.”

Why do I admire guys like Andrew Lahde and Monroe Trout? Because you probably never heard of them and more importantly, they understand that there's a lot more to life than making a lot of money. They understand Pete Peterson's meaning of enough and how hopelessly meaningless it is to make the Forbe's list of ultra wealthy.

If you've been following my blog closely, you'll notice I talk a lot about the importance of health. I've been feeling very good lately, and don't know if it's because of my recent CCSVI procedure or my vitamin D intake. I recently cut it down to 10,000 IUs a day from 30,000 IUs because I was losing too much weight and muscle mass, but I feel great and my blood tests were all normal. I also follow a common sense diet: no junk food whatsoever, fish, white meats and poultry, steamed broccoli and asparagus with lots of olive oil, limit my bread and pastas, drink lots of water (no soft drinks, juices or milk), and steer clear from sugar as much as possible, and no artificial sweeteners found in chewing gum and other products whatsoever (if you want fresh breath, brush your teeth, gargle alcohol free mouthwash or hydrogen peroxide and water without swallowing, and use a tongue cleaner like the one from Orabrush).

We all know our health is critically important but few people take measures to address it. Even I talk the talk but haven't been walking the walk. That's why today I was fed up of talking about going to the gym and decided to sign up at a gym near my house. Tonight, I went for a nice workout and it felt amazing (I'm a nut and started bench pressing like crazy -- definitely not 20 anymore!). It's a quiet and clean gym and I have a few friends that workout there so I can count on them if I need someone to spot me. I told the guy at the gym that for the longest time I was scared because I have MS, but now I'm fed up of procrastinating and decided I'll do whatever I can. He told me not to worry as there are women battling cancer who go to that gym and they often workout with no wigs. Also, his sister has MS for over 20 years and even though hers is very progressed, she's thinking of joining the gym too.

A lot of the battles you face with disabilities are all in your head. You can make all the excuses in the world for not doing something, but the biggest fear you have is fear itself. Last week, I was talking to a fixed income salesman from HSBC in Montreal that I admire. He suffered a spinal cord injury that left him partially paralyzed. Through intense rehabilitation, he was able to gain strength and walk using crutches. I like what he told me: "The minute I accepted my disability, I never looked back. It was truly liberating." He added: "I fundamentally believe that the disabled can do as good or better job that someone fully functional because they apply themselves harder."

I mention this because it's true but unfortunately too many organizations are lagging when it comes to hiring people with disabilities. It's one of my biggest pet peeves and not because I have MS. Forget me, I do not consider myself disabled -- far from it. I got enough fight in me to last several lifetimes. But I know that the unemployment rate for people with disabilities is abysmally high. And I blame governments for not doing enough to promote all inclusive work environments. I'm not just talking about the token person in a wheelchair, but a lot more disabled people at all organizational levels, even upper levels and board members. I would force all government organizations, including Crown corporations to publicly disclose the percentage of employees at all levels have self-identified as disabled people. It really isn't a big deal to hire someone with a disability and trust me, a few accommodations are all that's needed (when I did my contract at the Caisse, they put me in an office near the washrooms and allowed me to use the service elevator, and scheduled meetings at my bloc so I wouldn't have to walk all the way to the other end of the building. All little things I appreciated because I wasn't as strong as I am now).

That brings me to another topic, work. My friend Tom Naylor said it best, "work is a four-letter word". If you're lucky, your work is very stimulating, you're well compensated, and your work environment and the people you work with are all incredible. Unfortunately, it's rare to have it all. Either you'll have one or the other, but the sad fact is that most people don't have any of these success elements. Looking at my field, finance, there are really good people, but there are far too many weasels at all levels who consistently violate Ray Dalio's principle #11.

To be fair, it's not just finance. Any competitive field will have its share of unscrupulous weasels, but because finance is all about money, it has a disproportionate amount of weasels. What do these weasels have in common? Fragile egos. They're basically insecure, slimy politicians who will step on anyone who gets in their way. It's absolutely disgusting. I can write a book on stuff I've seen and experienced. In fact, I think I am going to write a book and try to sell the movie rights. Those of you who are unfamiliar with the snakes in finance should pick up Michael Lewis' classic, Liar's Poker. He talks all about those "Big Swinging Dicks" on Wall Street.

And that's another pet peeve of mine. Why don't pension funds and banks promote local talent? Why is Royal Bank's main trading floor in London, New York, then Toronto? Why is Bank of Montreal's main trading floor in Chicago? Why don't the large Canadian pension funds deal with local brokers, preferring instead to deal with the guys in London and New York? It's all bullshit! The large Canadian pension funds should insist that these firms open up offices in the main Canadian cities and train and promote local talent. They should publicly disclose what percentage of their brokerage activities goes to non-Canadian shops and start dealing more with Canadian brokers (not the guys from New York!!).

This field is all about egos and politics. It makes me sick but there are good people. There are exceptional people with the highest level of integrity and professionalism. They're rare but if you find a mentor in this field, count yourself extremely lucky (pension funds should have mentorship programs for their junior employees). I count myself extremely lucky to have worked with a few of these individuals, some as recently as my experience at the Caisse. Unbelievably smart and good people who have no malicious bone in their body and are willing to share their knowledge.

That's my philosophy in life. Maybe because my father and mother taught me to be good and help people. Of course, they also tell me I'm too trusting and naive and should be less open when talking with people in my personal and professional life. When I recently hooked up with my former boss at PSP Investments, Pierre Malo, we discussed process over performance, but we also spoke about life and friendship. Something he told me that stuck with me: "In this world, I can count on one hand my true close friends, people who would jump on a plane and fly half way across the world to come help me if I really needed them." (Pierre is one of the good guys I had the pleasure of working with and even though we don't always see eye to eye, I consider him a friend).

He's absolutely right. I know my family loves me unconditionally but when it comes to close friends, I can count them on one hand. Lots of people talk the talk, but few walk the walk. Unfortunately, that's the harsh reality of life and the older you get, the more you see who your true friends are because they stick with you through thick and thin. Not empty words but real concrete actions, especially when the going gets tough (that's when you realize who your true friends are. My dad calls this "egotistical friendships" where other people are your friends as long as they get something from you or you make them feel good.)

Let me wind this comment down by sharing some of my dreams and aspirations. A friend of mine got me hooked onto this stupid horoscope application which for some reason I now read religiously. Anyways, on Monday it read the following:

If there is something you have been longing to do, Taurus, hop to it! During this period of renewal, you have an excellent chance of succeeding at a new venture that is close to your heart. But if you choose to procrastinate instead - figuring that your goal can wait on this or that - then you may not have the advantages you have now. If you begin to take steps to make your dream a reality, the universe will provide you with all of the support and resources you require.

I've been giving a lot of thought on monetizing my blog. I put a lot of work in building this blog -- the links alone are worth keeping it on your bookmarks, especially if you work in asset management. I'm continuously adding to these links and updating them. I also try write insightful comments almost every night by analyzing articles and adding my thoughts.

Blogging seems easy but those who do it properly know it takes a lot of dedication and a lot of work. You have to find interesting topics, analyze articles, add comments, and often have to reread your own material to edit and correct typos. I love blogging and it shows. Instead of watching television, I prefer keeping my mind busy at night blogging.

After almost three years, I recently surpassed over 400,000 page views on my blog (my stats are all public on the bottom right-hand side). I'm grateful to other bloggers like Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism, Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge and Tadas Viskanta at Abnormal Returns who helped me gain visibility. I'm also grateful to Jack Dean of Pension Tsunami and Pierre Daillie at AdvisorAnalyst.com who also post my comments on their wonderful sites.
I want to continue blogging on Pension Pulse and take this blog to another level, exploring new options, including money management. I've set up a donation button at the top of my blog on the right-hand corner under the pig ( If you don't have a PayPal account, setup is a breeze. Just head over here to sign up and then come back when you're done). I would like my friends (and foes) to support me in this and other new ventures. It's time to dream big and start a new chapter in my life. If it flops, it flops, but at least I had the guts to try it.

What are some of the other ideas I'm toying with? I'm thinking of trading for a living, partnering up with some good people on a new venture, institutional sales jobs (but I'd really have to believe in the product I'm selling), offering niche research, and continuing doing contract work for pension funds. I'd also like to do more interviews with senior pension fund professionals from all over the world (not just Canada), as well as interviews with asset managers in public and private markets. I also want to set up an annual Pension Pulse dinner where I invite senior pension fund managers from all over the world, as well as asset managers from public and private markets, and moderate a discussion on topics of interest.

Turning 40 isn't the end of the world. It could be the beginning of something more meaningful in my life. I want to explore all my options but most of all I want to take control of my destiny, taking baby steps to reach my ultimate goal of setting up a fund where I manage money with a group of good people who I've known for a long time (and even some that I just recently met). There is lots of untapped talent in Canada that is being underutilized. And my dream is to give money back to worthy charities, many of which are listed on the bottom right-hand side of my blog.

So for my birthday on Tuesday, I would welcome your advice and donations to my blog. I'm not ashamed to publicly ask for your help in making this one of the best financial blogs on the net, along with a few others I've mentioned above and listed on my blog roll. As I stated above, no matter what, I'll continue blogging and take it up a notch, but I would appreciate your financial support. Finally, thank you for reading my long birthday rant. Is 40 the new 20? No, it's better!

Comments

[AN0NYM0US]

Leo, no donations today but there was an excellent interview with Gordon Johnson from Axiom regarding Chinese Solars on Bloomberg's Taking Stock with Pimm Fox -- the video should be posted in the next couple of hours

[thegr8whorebabylon]

Tikanayday Leo, Happy Birthday !!!  nice blog.  I enjoy reading your nonfinacial stuff have worked for peeps with ms.  We're all gettin older but the beauty's the Beholder, Who, if we're lucky, is gonna make us golder.

YO HOW"S That for poetry???  LOL

[doggings]

Happy birthday Leo.

40 was a great one for me, (2006) talk about life beginning. having extricated myself from the property market the previous year after 15 years of home ownership debt slavery I was on a train to go snowboarding (for the 1st time) on my b'day, and then promptly upped and moved country to my closest idea of paradise I could find.

been here 5 years now and never better, happy renter, no debt and positive cashflow piling up in the form of metals ever since.

hopefully the next 5 years will be as kind to you amigo.

[Thisson]

Wow - please tell us more.  What do you do and in what country?

[Arius]

"I did what I did because I read the overall market correctly..."

Get off your high horse Leo...to paraphrase your fixed income trader friend when you accept that you CANNOT read the overall market correctly (just too many factors in there which do not necessary make sense)...than you will find the right path...which is PM Leo with all due respects to solar energy...

i will cut you a slice though being greek...

[Leo Kolivakis]

Arius,

LOL! Thanks for cutting me some slack, and you're right, nobody knows what the future holds. I was lucky and admitted it. Learned my lesson on being humble a long time ago losing a ton of money on Nortel call options (after making a killing thinking I was going to retire early). The market is the Master and we are all Slaves!!!

[Imminent Crucible]

Happy Birthday, Leo, and thanks for your thoughts about life.

A birthday admonition for you: Be careful of any investment thesis that makes this assumption: " as the US economy improves over the next few months".

If you assume the U.S. economy is going to improve over the coming months, I recommend that you factor in the following:

$112 oil and $4 gasoline. They're going to hammer retail and discretionary.

Case-Shiller out today; home prices fell in Feb at a 13% annual rate.

First-time unemployment claims keep coming in around 400,000 week after week. There is no employment recovery until that number falls to the low 300k's.

The Fed's ZIRP and monetizations have goosed stocks, but decimated the fixed-income crowd. No wealth effect from owning Treasury debt.

If the Fed really ends QE, the stock market collapses. Ben's "wealth effect" evaporates entirely.

I could go on, but hey, it's your birthday.

[Sparrowhawk]

I survived a huge brain anuerysm at age 39, and 40 was my best birthday ever!  Each day is a gift.  Happy Birthday!  Glad you were born!

[Leo Kolivakis]

Each day is a gift! Well said!

[oldmanofthesee]

For me, a lot of water over the bridge (I know!), since 40. The aches at 60 I read about, really hurt at 73. Don't agree with a lot of your positions Leo (unions, pensions), but a nice, thoughtful piece. Best wishes on your birthday.

OLDMAN

[kaiserhoff]

When I turned 40, my much younger lover conspired with my secretary to fill my office with black balloons.  May you always have such friends, or at least interesting enemies.  Cheer up Leo.  40 is the new 39 and a half.

[OldTrooper]

Happy Birthday, Leo!  Live long and prosper.

[Careless Whisper]

Happy Birthday Leo. I enjoy your blog.

[christofay]

You're 40? I thought you were 60, or even better 60+. Now I'll have to read ya with a more critical light which I guess I should have been using from the start

[breezer1]

will read you article later leo. i have to do a pamper (adult) run now. so happy birthday and may you have many more.

[RockyRacoon]

Happy Birthday, Leo.   Remember that enthusiasm is wasted on the young.  I'm a ripe 62 and remember my 40th very well.   Wasn't half as traumatic as 50 which is a real turning point since it really is "over the hill".   At least one can coast after that.

[Fíréan]

40 is forty and 20 is twenty, and any attempt to make one the other is merely self-dillusionary.

The number is the amount of years you have been alive, nothing more nothing less. It only matters if you let it matter.Degree of experience does not always come with the greater amount of numbers, and as a percentage of your total life spam who knows if you are at the middle or one day off the end.

Is 20 the new ten ?

[AldousHuxley]

As advances in medicine allowed extended life, people began delaying life events later and later including finishing post-secondary schooling, getting married, having children, retirement.

But there seems to be a limit to how old you can be to still enjoy certain periods in life even if you don't have major health problems. To a point where it costs so much money to make up the delay instead of relying on nature. ie. having kids in late 30s vs. in late 20s and not having enough energy to handle children in your 50s.

So carpe diem.

[DaveyJones]

then they'll make ten the new zero so we lose a decade of tax exemptions

[RocketmanBob]

Happy Birthday wishes to you, and many happy returns.

And no, 40 isn't the new 20, although with the longevity we enjoy via medical technology it may seem like it!

The secret is, they're all good, 40, 50, 60, and so on.  Everyday here is a blessing, regardless of the human struggle, so enjoy the ride!

My regards

[fuu]

Happy birthday Leo. Glad you are still posting and hanging in there.

[Bruce Krasting]

Well I wish you a happy 40th.

"We can't have hyper inflation without wages spiraling too." Sounds like Ben B.

By the numbers you are sort of right. But that is because the numbers do not tell much of the story. If general prices of things we consume go up by 5% and wages are rising at only 1% you say we have no net inflation. Just silly.

On the blog; I again wish you well. But look at the business model you(we) are working in.

There is very little value (economically) in what we do. I can't expect that to change much. I'll tip your jar for the heck of it, but only because it is your birthday.......

[Leo Kolivakis]

Bruce,

Thanks, and I agree with you, it's tough making money blogging which is why I prefer trading and relying on my own skills. However, there are wealthy and not so wealthy donors out there who appreciate our work and realize we're the most underpaid analysts in finance. I've already received donations and appreciate all of them, no matter what amount they donate.  

[DaveyJones]

well said.  "We can't have hyper inflation without wages spiraling too." - and we know this because it worked out so well in those other places?

[Ruffcut]

Happy Bday Leo.

Mine is on saturday, over 50.

Every year after 50 are BONUS years.

40 is not the new 20, maybe the new 39 and half though.

[Twice a Day]

Have a great Birthday, stay strong.

Growing old ain't for sissies, especially

for the times we face. You're an excellent

contributor and resource of human capital.

Sincerely and Respectfully.

Now, I'm a Venture Capitalist.

[LongSoupLine]

Leo,

I noticed your diet did not include copious beer intake.  I highly recommend you add this.

Happy Birthday!  Celebrate by buying more silver.

[Bob]

Happy Birthday, Leo!  Remember, you can't take it with you . . . but, that said, may you enjoy many more.  Milestone birthdays carry some weight, much like Y2K, but the fundamental valuation is the peace you make with what's behind you and the enlightened pleasure you chart for the future on the basis of all those lessons learned.  Enjoy--and congrats on the health!

[LawsofPhysics]

It is so long as you get to turn your wife in for two "20's" (Just kidding dear, love ya)

[LRC Fan]

dup

[quasimodo]

Yes, "dup" pretty much sums up that previous brain tingling post that I am sure many will find thought provoking.

I would guess you are in kindergarten and just lost a game of knock out?

[LRC Fan]

You suck

[moneymutt]

Good luck with your venture, and enjoy your birthday. 

[exportbank]

Happy Birthday and Good Health Leo.

The new 40 and the old 40 are the same - people may live a tad longer but it's added on at the very end - you don't get to do re-do your 20's. 

There are no investors - everyone is just a speculator in the casino - you prove it by doubling down. Leo, you've been right by predicting that the FED wouldn't turn off the tap.

[Optimusprime]

Happy birthday, Leo.  Your views on many issues are obviously not in synch with those of many who comment on your postings, but I always admired your basic optimism and fighting spirit.  Zero Hedge presents a variety of viewpoints, but they seem most valuable in their evident wish to help us all comprehend and survive mighty forces swirling around and through our lives. 

Decade birthdays are convenient "punctuation marks" in our lives, giving us an opportunity to reflect and plan.  When I turned forty, I was trying to "re-invent" myself by returning to grad school (on a fellowship, thank God, no edu-debt for me).  It was fun to re-discover optimistic aspiration, following some difficult experiences during my thirties. 

Fifty saw me trying to return to a simpler life, sixty brought grandchildren--I agree with Aristarchan that aging seems to accelerate as the years go by. 

But the naive fury at rank injustice hiding behind hypocrisy never seems to go away.  I hope it never does.  If that makes me a fool, so be it.

[AldousHuxley]

no, 20 is the new 40. Quarterlife crisis instead of boomer's midlife crisis.

[DaveyJones]

nice

[mworden]

wekk, ummm, Oh to be fifty again...

[sodbuster]

Leo-

I don't always agree with your viewpoints, but that's no reason not to wish you a Happy Birthday! and many more! 40? 50? They are ALL good, Leo. As you well know, if you are well enough to work, you are blessed. Last May, my son had a hemorrhage in his brain. Fortunately, a surgeon at Mayo Clinic was able to repair it, and after 4 months of therapy learning to walk, talk, and make his left side do what he wants it to, he is back at work, and making the most of life.

Life is precious, every day is special. Don't let the assholes of life get you down. Enjoy!

Sod

[Leo Kolivakis]

Sod, glad to hear your son is okay. Life is very precious...breaks my heart to see sick children and yet I find their courage incredibly inspirational.

[Aristarchan]

40 for me was ok....but that was well over 20 years ago. Now I notice the little things, everyday aches and pains, more stomach issues, wrinkles, eye bags, a growing distaste for teenagers, loud music, fools (which I consider myself to be), television, sports, women's issues and, well, in some ways, life.

When I say a distaste for life, it does not mean I am suicidal, it just means that life is not as easy as it once was. When I was a kid TV's were black and white (if you had one), radio was still important, we only had three TV channels, eating what you wanted to was okay, smoking was okay (I just recently kicked a 30 year 3-pack-a-day habit), and cops and government gunsels didn't seem to hassle most people too much.

When I was 8, my grandfather gave me a single-shot .22 rifle. I walked around town with it - into stores and everything, and nobody cared (that was in Texas). I didn't have any money, so I bought .22 shorts, which were cheaper.

The countries my oilfield Dad dragged me around for years were simpler too. Singapore was a little rustic back then, Hiroshima (Japan) was still recovering from the war, England was still snobby, and they may have disliked Americans even more then than now. The Middle East was very backward...Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Iran, but no terrorism that I really remember. I guess I remember that in those times, Americans felt a little special in most of these places, and maybe we were - we had money and expertise. But, that was a scenario doomed to eventual failure, but I did not realize it at the time.

When I got back from Vietnam, not only had I changed, the world I lived in had changed as well. The economy of the boom years had pretty much dwindled away, my crazy ideas of American ascendency (born of the 50's) had evaporated. Being a non-doper and short-hair, I did not really fit in with many of my fellow soldiers, nor did I fit in very well with the society I returned to. But, over time, life became good again.

Later, I lived most of my life back overseas, working in many of the places I lived as a kid (is that weird?). I saved my money, never invested in anything - other than keeping foreign currency bank accounts - but that was more for convenience than anything else.

Then, over time, I got old. Getting old is at first a slow process, that speeds up with the accrument of years. I married late - too a much younger woman, and that kept me alive for many years...and still does in many ways. But, I am lucky, despite my years of hard living, radiation exposure, war and third-world diseases, I seem to be pretty healthy.

Leo writes a good article here, and it struck a note in me. I probably do not have a lot in common with most folks here, since I am not an investor, but I love studying investment, and have done so for years, I just chose not to risk my money in that way (hyperinflation could force me by default into a negative investor). But, ultimately, we all kinda speak the same language, especially when it comes to the important things.

This may sound disjointed and irrelevant, but sometimes you just have to write what you feel, and to hell with the consequences.

Thanks, Leo, for a great article.

[Gully Foyle]

Aristarchan

I'm seven years your junior and recall the same openness and lack of paranoia. As a child I was free to roam unhindred anywhere I wanted. Now kids are barely allowed down the block.

I'm also baffled as to when men became such pussies. Whiney little bitches they are these days. How many of them could handle a Vietnam, or a WW1 or Boer war?

And women are such whores. Not that I mind the freely available porn, but they seem to lack self worth. Exchanging dignity for sex appeal.

Ant the acceptance of STD's as common, when in my day made one damn near a pariah. I posted a link to an NPR piece that said over seventy percent of women between 45 and fifty have Herpes! No wonder their daughters act like dirty little tramps. No self pride and dignity.

Nearly every day a great actor, muscian or writer passes on and there is no one to replace them. Pale immitations at best.

Planned Obsolescence disgned into products removes the entire heirloom legacy previoulsy enjoyed by generations.

I watch my world die a little more every day until I feel like an alien.

This sums it best for me

The Madwoman of Chaillot (1969)

The Ragpicker: Countess if only you knew... Shall we tell her?... Nothing Countess, it's you that are hiding. You see, there was a time when old clothes were as good as new. In fact they were better because when people wore clothes they gave something to them. But that was a long time ago, Countess. Just as, there was a time when... when garbage was a pleasure. Oh, it smelled a little strange or seemed confused, that's because there was everything there. The smell of sardine, of iendine, calone, roses. An amature would leap to the wrong conclusion. But to a professional, it was the smell of life... No Countess, the world has changed. The garbage has changed... People are not the same, Countess. People are different. No one is involved with anyone anymore. There's been an invasion, and infatuation. The world isn't beautiful no longer. The world is not happy... Because you've been dreaming a long time, Countess, and, no one wanted to disturb you. Countess, look, there was a time remember you could walk along the streets of Paris and everybody you met were just like yourself. I mean, oh, a little cleaner maybe or dirty perhaps or angry or smiling. But you knew them. I knew them too. And one day, 20 years ago I saw a face in the crowd. Face without a face; the eyes empty, the expression not human. It was not a human face at all. It saw me staring and when it looked back at me with its gelatin eyes, I shuttered. Because I knew to make room for one of them, one of us must have left the earth. The world is full of faceless people, Countess, and once you stop dreaming, as we all had stopped dreaming, you see them quite clearly. They were here today.

Since everyone is wishing a happy birthday I thought maybe great moments in todays history would be more original

Leo shares this day with

Apr 26 1865

Discovered hiding in a farmer's tobacco shed, John Wilkes Booth is shot in the neck by a complete lunatic. Dying and paralyzed from the neck down, he whispers: "Tell my mother I did it for my country." As his hands are held up to his face, Booth mutters "useless... useless..." They are his last words.

Apr 26 1933

Hermann Goering founds the Geheime Staatspolizei, otherwise known as the Gestapo. The original purpose of this "Secret State Police" is to disrupt and harass opponents of National Socialism, but it will later come to adopt many additional responsibilities.

Apr 26 1969

Paul McCartney denies rumors of his recent death. Eventually, most people come to believe him.

Apr 26 1986

44 seconds into a late-night experiment at the Chernobyl nuclear power station, reactor number four sustains two large explosions. A plume of dangerous radioactivity looms three kilometers high, making it the worst catastrophe in the history of nuclear power. The Soviet news agency TASS holds off reporting the incident for almost 48 hours.

Apr 26 1991

In a telephone interview, Michigan judge Francis Bourisseau explains that he would never grant an abortion to a minor, except perhaps for white girls raped by blacks. For some reason, this statement manages to attract wide attention.

Apr 26 2006

Snoop Dogg and his entourage arrested in London's Heathrow Airport for creating a disturbance when British Airways wouldn't allow the group into a first class lounge. After being escorted outside, there was a fight and seven police officers were injured. After a night in jail, the group is freed but Big Snoop Dogg has been banned from the U.K. and British Airways as a result of the melee.

[peak experience]

Wise post Aristarchan

[maximin thrax]

"Now I notice the little things, everyday aches and pains, more stomach issues, wrinkles, eye bags, a growing distaste for teenagers, loud music, fools (which I consider myself to be), television, sports, women's issues and, well, in some ways, life."

Seriously, that was me at 40! Still can't kick the soda-a-day-occasional-junk-food diet.

[Kickaha]

Thank you for taking the time to share your story with us.

I used to think, if I thought about it all, that a person aged over time, that body systems were genetically programmed to fail, and that eventually a critical one would do so, and then you die.

Now I have come to realize that this was a very naive way to look at things.

I have learned, instead, that life kills you.  It is the reality that every living thing wants a piece of you.  When you are young and strong, you can fend them off.  As old age seeps in, one day you just grow weary, and those old defenses get overwhelmed, and pieces of you start disappearing.

It is healthy, and a sign of your continuing vitality, that you have developed a "distaste for life".

[falak pema]

We seem to be in the same age span. I found 40 to be exciting. I found 50 to be mellowing. Although 60 brings with it its aches and pains and shorter interest horizons, I find I am more tolerant. I can shut off the sound of that loud music, that asinine talk around me; go into my own shell or cocoon.  I find my ability to enjoy things more finely etched. Every simple thing now has a zest of spice, like a clear blue sky that comes and goes. I'll go and absorb the sun like precious gold dust even for a quarter of an hour before the next cloud comes. Time : I want it to slow down, as before, when I was young, it wouldn't move fast enough. I've been around the world many times in professional/personal life. Now, I'm just happy moving to a few choice locations.

Happy hunting grounds ...

Enjoy your 40th LEO, best wishes for a new decade!...You are Taurus like myself...unless I lost my zodiac compass!

[RockyRacoon]

I have a Taurus as well.
Oh, wait, maybe that's not what you meant.

[Leo Kolivakis]

Thanks for sharing Artistachan, and I thank all of you for your good wishes.

[Thisson]

Leo,

Happy Birthday.

In your discussion of Schwager, don't allow the fund's results to confuse you into thinking there was no risk.  If I bet on Black on the roulette wheel and it comes up Black 5 times in a row, that doesn't mean there was no risk.

Secondly, I'm astonished that you think the economy is "improving" - but I guess that's what makes a market.  Whether we have inflation or deflation, a painful period of adjustment is coming.  Granted, the economy can stay irrational for extended periods, but in reality inefficiencies and malinvestment cannot be papered over indefinitely.

[RoRoTrader]

You may not be an investor, but you lived and risked your life instead. It is a more rare currency in these times and I'll take your sense of value over money anytime. Very nice piece. Thanks for your thoughts.