403K Initial Claims WorseThan Consensus Again, Down From As Always Upwardly Revised 416K

Tyler Durden's picture

First, as always happens, the BLS revised last week's non-credible mega miss even worse, from 412K to 416K. As for this week, the number will end up being worse than 403K, which is what was reported for this week, to be revised upward to 406K or so next week. This is (and will be) much higher than the expected 390K. And so Tim Geithner has to start his latest "Welcome to the Recovery - edition 2011" draft from scratch. Continuing claims also were well above expectations, printing 20K over consensus at 3,695K. Last week's number of 3,680K was revised, gee, higher to 3,702K. And just as importantly those hitting the 99 week cliff seem to be accelerating: those on EUCs dropped 24K, while people on extended benefits declined by 47K. Total number of persons claiming benefits across all programs dropped by 217K in the week ended April 2. And so the Yen carry trade unwinds once again: the USDJPY just plunged to 81.72.

Full report.

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Anonymouse's picture

Where can I find a table of historic initial and revised weekly figures?  I can see the current report, but all tables I can find only show the revised figure.

Would like to look at various stats, not just claims.

Don't have Bloomberg access.

Any ideas?

Josh Randall's picture

I'd use the "Search this site" function on the upper right portion of the ZH page. The best coverage of the lies and manipulation is here, with probable links to source material in previous stories

faustian bargain's picture

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

if you scroll down to today's date, 'unemployment claims', and click on the little bar chart symbol, you can get an interactive chart with forecast, reported, and revised numbers dating back to 2000. Hope that's what you're looking for.

Anonymouse's picture

+2 (revised from +1)

Thanks for that.  Very helpful site in general.  Was hoping to download data, which doesn't seem possible, but still this is great stuff.

I'm shocked at how hard it is to find historical revisions

Ray1968's picture

Market won't care about stupid employment. Apple and GE stock is the excuse to rally today.

TruthInSunshine's picture

Silver is going to nuke the financial complex, and subsequently take down equity markets, and they're going to blame it on a jobs report.

I have never been a PM bug, but even I will admit that I've converted, because the evidence is undeniable.

As of today, banks are net short roughly 400 billion fiatscis against silver.

Ben 'Helicopter' Bernanke played with fire and bitch got burnt.

SNAFU

long juan silver's picture

I'll bet you enjoy looking through binoculars using the wrong end

TruthInSunshine's picture

So silver hasn't said that Bernanke has already lost control (after all, he can't raise interest rates enough and fast enough without killing the crack up fake asset/equity rally and imploding the Fed's balance sheet), and there aren't systemically important 'banks' with major silver exposure?

Cdad's picture

So silver hasn't already said that Bernanke has lost control

Indeed, precious metals are screaming a "no confidence vote" at the Fed.  And it just kills me as gold sets one new all time high after another, the MSM reports...the price action.  They report price action as if that IS the story.  There is not an ounce of intelligence [or integrity] in them.  

The story is not the price action.  The story is what the price action means, dollar collapsing, people buying precious metals as a new currency.  The story is that Ben Bernanke does not have the confidence of the US citizens.  The story is, as you say, that the big banks are in it again...systemically exposed to a short squeeze that, if they actually had to do their books correctly, would reveal yet another problem there, another collateral time bomb.

Then again, if the story leads to the issue of the books of the biggest criminal syndicate Wall Street banks, then we are all f'd....so....lets talk about....the burrito scam that was just revealed last night!  Or.....shopping!!  OR LULU!!!

 

Cue the Robot chart man.

TruthInSunshine's picture

Cdad - Thank you for stating what I was attempting to more clearly.

I am very new at interpreting action in the precious metal complex to action in the real financial world, but when I see that there is literally a shortage of silver available for delivery or in inventory by major dealers, and I personally know of educated people demanding that transactions of unrelated types be completed through payment of physical gold or silver, it tells me that this is more than just a bubble based on perception, but rather a complete loss of confidence in the ability and/or willingness of the Federal Reserve to stem the tide.

Commander Cody's picture

It is also tacit acknowledgement that the paper asset world is teetering on the edge of the abyss.

Cdad's picture

Brother Truth,

Indeed, the Federal Reserve Bank MAY be able to stem the tide...although figuring the cumulative effects of the currency war now engaged is rather hard to do.  As you suggest, the problem is that there is no willingness to stem the tide.  

The tide is inflation, which is seen in the price action of metals, inflation being the one story here, not the price action.  Another being a new currency.  Attention BlowHorn [CNBC]:  even a 13 year-old journalist wanna be can figure out what I am writing here...so...just sayin'...if you consider yourself a news agency...you know.

Anyway, inflation is what Ben wants, or more accurately what Congress needs to make debt vanish.  In the meantime, if our personal debt increases, or the service on our debt increase, or if we lose our jobs and are kicked out of you houses by J. Dimon, the leader of the criminal syndicate Wall Street banker enemy, or if we cannot afford to eat or drive our cars....all of us BE DAMNED!  

Whew....that feels better.  I think you have your thumb on the essence of it, brother Truth:  a lack of willingness.  Hmmmmm?

More 15 second bump stories about gold price action!

FreedomGuy's picture

I would say its not only a lack of confidence in the Fed but the U.S. Congress which is the most important one in the world. We have over one half of the Congress not only deny a budget or balance sheet problem but saying that we need to make it worse ("invest more") to make things better. The other half of Congress admits a problem but probably does not have the courage to make the extreme decisions NOW that need to be done. I don't even think they realize that the time bomb has nearly finished counting down.

I see the Fed as the bartender-enabler of the spendaholics in Congress. This is what is driving PM's and commodities in my mind. It sure is for me...that and completely unfundable social obligations.

PY-129-20's picture

Robot Trader is just a metapher for the whole market...displaying an attitude that will be crushed - at least, for a while.

youngman's picture

I think there are people in the INNER CIRCLE of this country that still think we are the leader of the world...what the USA says and does is king....that we can do anything and it will have no impact...we are not...the BRICS see that and laugh...the rest of the world is making plans for when the USA goes away.....and they are right..

FreedomGuy's picture

Well, when you are about 25% of the entire world's GDP and major trading partner for most nations they cannot laugh at us...even if they want to. We used to be the battleship in the world and they all tethered their boats to us. Now the battleship is sinking and if they don't untether they will sink with us. I see China, Russia, and maybe Germany in the future trying to untether. Germany is tethered to the EU trying to save the PIIGS, as well, so they have really complicated problems.

We should do the same as citizens.

A Man without Qualities's picture

US corporations are firing to make sure the Fed doesn't start tightening...

Cursive's picture

Regarding the FRN's, I assume there is some level that Benron will support?  They aren't THAT crazy, are they?

Dick Darlington's picture

I'm afraid they are. Chair creature knows no limit.

Cdad's picture

I should think he would need to keep his powder dry for the all time low, down around $71 and change.  Considering that he has pissed off the entire world, he would be arrogant to try to step in and stem the tide here.  Furthermore, I don't think he wants the dollar supported here.  Why not take that [implied] extra three dollar inflation cushion?

 

Josh Randall's picture

It's currency war - the Saudi's and Chinese haven't been wiped out enough yet, The Bernanke only comes in for the late save when the perceived end is days away and all has been bought back or dumped for pennies on the dollar. Then the dollar will grow again because it will be backed by gold or a basket of PM's -- you wouldn't buy back your own company stock at a high price if you didn't have to would you ? 

Cdad's picture

 you wouldn't buy back your own company stock at a high price if you didn't have to would you ?

Josh,

I followed you right to that point.  Report to a chart of Chipotle to see how and why you might buy a stock back at a high.  If your plan is to engineer a market cap...and then dump said shares all "capped up" into an index so that it can be shoveled like shit into Average Joe's 401k...you might buy a stock back at the high.  You know, if you understood the plan.

Indeed, whether or not Ben CAN save the dollar at its all time low depends...on the agenda at the time the price arrives there, and also just how many other nations are shooting at him while he goes for the stick save.  Odds of calling the outcome....same as roulette?

Josh Randall's picture

your thoughts are plausible - my projection is that there are enough true power brokers in the US that don't want a one world currency other than King Dollar, but before they right the ship they want to wipe as many poker players at the table as possible

AccreditedEYE's picture

I have thought along those lines for some time Cursive... not anymore. All they think is "save the game" at the expense of REAL value. It's hysterical how most of the population has no idea how bad living standards are about to get.

johny2's picture

Equity markets thrive on increased use of the food vouchers, look at the charts.

Charlie_Day's picture

Anyone catch Mishkin getting grilled? Pretty fucking funny.

I am Jobe's picture

So lets see we, have GE who outsources as many jobs as possible an so does Eaton and others and only have order takers. Yeap, next year only 40 % will pay taxes as more layoffs continue. BTW HK is doing great.

http://www.economywatch.com/%20economy-business-and-finance-news/hong-ko...

 

Hang the Corp and Congress Bitchez. Don't forget thier family.

long juan silver's picture

But Imeldt gives Obamay a hell of a hand job under the table.

John Law Lives's picture

Welcome to the new normal:

1. Wall Street speculative frenzies with easy money lead to bubble burstings...

2. Wall Street gets massive bailouts and more easy money...

3. Wall Street speculative frenzies with easy money lead to more bubble burstings...

4. Half the world chokes on surging food and energy prices and the MSM ignores it as they celebrate corporate earnings...

100% FUBAR.

jtz5's picture

Tyler,

With the Fed taking open questions from the media following the next FOMC meeting, how about writing an article "Questions I would ask Bernanke" in case some MSM reads ZH and needs some good ideas.

buzzsaw99's picture

Q 4 the bernank: why won't you die (bitchez)?

n9lhm's picture

Looking into my crystal ball, I predict..... I predict....... that next week's number will be much lower due to the Good Friday holiday, and it will be heralded as an 'economic improvement' and 'great news'. :)

anti Oligarchy's picture

which the algos will run with and get another 2% gain in the market. 

There is some point in the very near future when they will determine enough sheeple have bought in they'll flip the switch and 2 minutes later the S&P will be down 20%

FreedomGuy's picture

You missed past headlines. Even bad news is good news because when it's bad it's not as bad as feared so in fact it's getting better, even though it's getting worse because it's not as bad as it could have been. So markets should rise.

Remember, apart from the bailouts and stimulus the unemployment rate would have been 100%. So, all hail Obama!

Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Gloom is Good, will be the Orwellian Newspeak for the next 2 months in the equities, as QE(n+1) heads off into ad infinitum from June. The Zimbabwean stock indices were leading the CPI, over 5 years ago. Think about it.

 

Mike2756's picture

Need more qe, more i say! This time they will cut $1000 checks to the unemployed instead of bond buys.

TruthInSunshine's picture

$1000 doesn't go nearly as far as it did a year ago.

$10,000 swipe cards for all.

tomster0126's picture

$1,000 will last a week, barely!  More QE?  I'm with it, as long as Bernanke just keeps his trap shut and starts using his brain.

 

www.forecastfortomorrow.com

John Law Lives's picture

Look at how the hucksters reported this data:

"Fewer people sought unemployment aid last week"

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fewer-people-sought-apf-381478719.html?x=0...

This new weekly data was much worse than expected, and the cheerleaders herald it as a victory.

Calgon, take me away!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvE65VOcAL0

John Law Lives's picture

Here is an excerpt from that article:

<<<  Applications near 375,000 are consistent with sustainable job growth. >>>

Since WHEN have 375,000 weekly unemployment claims been representative of sustainable job growth?  That BS number has ratcheted higher so the MSM can claim this is good news.

nonclaim's picture

In the other news chocolate ration has been increased to 20 grams a week.

Cassandra Syndrome's picture

 

Bloomjerk don't even feature it. Who cares about jobs when Morgan Stanley can use appealing semiotics on paper to boost the bottom line?

John Law Lives's picture

1. Easy money for Wall Street to speculate with...

2. Bubbles burst... and Wall Street gets even more easy money...

3. Rinse.  Repeat.

Goddam this nonsense.

 

MarketFox's picture

Here is the way it is....

Since when is an American labor unit worth 10X a BRIC labor unit....

 

The only way to equilibrate is currency dilution....

 

The only tool left in the box....that the FED is willing to use....

 

The real solution would be to reduce government add back cost....ie eliminate the grotesgue size of government to no more than 5% of the economy...including state governments....THEN one would see real strength....rather than the current nonsense and complete offshoring of middle class labor.....

If the US population had the balls....this would already be happening....

 

The US needs another ¨Brave Heart¨hero...

 

Another ¨Mel Gibson¨.....

Seasmoke's picture

who needs a job, better to have unemployment checks , food stamps and free mortgages ....think next up is the disability play