This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

403K Initial Claims WorseThan Consensus Again, Down From As Always Upwardly Revised 416K

Tyler Durden's picture




 

First, as always happens, the BLS revised last week's non-credible mega miss even worse, from 412K to 416K. As for this week, the number will end up being worse than 403K, which is what was reported for this week, to be revised upward to 406K or so next week. This is (and will be) much higher than the expected 390K. And so Tim Geithner has to start his latest "Welcome to the Recovery - edition 2011" draft from scratch. Continuing claims also were well above expectations, printing 20K over consensus at 3,695K. Last week's number of 3,680K was revised, gee, higher to 3,702K. And just as importantly those hitting the 99 week cliff seem to be accelerating: those on EUCs dropped 24K, while people on extended benefits declined by 47K. Total number of persons claiming benefits across all programs dropped by 217K in the week ended April 2. And so the Yen carry trade unwinds once again: the USDJPY just plunged to 81.72.

Full report.

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Thu, 04/21/2011 - 09:03 | 1191920 Anonymouse
Anonymouse's picture

Where can I find a table of historic initial and revised weekly figures?  I can see the current report, but all tables I can find only show the revised figure.

Would like to look at various stats, not just claims.

Don't have Bloomberg access.

Any ideas?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 09:23 | 1192007 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

I'd use the "Search this site" function on the upper right portion of the ZH page. The best coverage of the lies and manipulation is here, with probable links to source material in previous stories

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:32 | 1192984 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

if you scroll down to today's date, 'unemployment claims', and click on the little bar chart symbol, you can get an interactive chart with forecast, reported, and revised numbers dating back to 2000. Hope that's what you're looking for.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 01:59 | 1195415 Anonymouse
Anonymouse's picture

+2 (revised from +1)

Thanks for that.  Very helpful site in general.  Was hoping to download data, which doesn't seem possible, but still this is great stuff.

I'm shocked at how hard it is to find historical revisions

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 08:37 | 1191832 NoBull1994
NoBull1994's picture

green shoots

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 08:52 | 1191887 Ray1968
Ray1968's picture

Market won't care about stupid employment. Apple and GE stock is the excuse to rally today.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 08:40 | 1191845 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Silver is going to nuke the financial complex, and subsequently take down equity markets, and they're going to blame it on a jobs report.

I have never been a PM bug, but even I will admit that I've converted, because the evidence is undeniable.

As of today, banks are net short roughly 400 billion fiatscis against silver.

Ben 'Helicopter' Bernanke played with fire and bitch got burnt.

SNAFU

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 08:43 | 1191853 long juan silver
long juan silver's picture

I'll bet you enjoy looking through binoculars using the wrong end

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 08:54 | 1191869 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

So silver hasn't said that Bernanke has already lost control (after all, he can't raise interest rates enough and fast enough without killing the crack up fake asset/equity rally and imploding the Fed's balance sheet), and there aren't systemically important 'banks' with major silver exposure?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 09:00 | 1191899 Cdad
Cdad's picture

So silver hasn't already said that Bernanke has lost control

Indeed, precious metals are screaming a "no confidence vote" at the Fed.  And it just kills me as gold sets one new all time high after another, the MSM reports...the price action.  They report price action as if that IS the story.  There is not an ounce of intelligence [or integrity] in them.  

The story is not the price action.  The story is what the price action means, dollar collapsing, people buying precious metals as a new currency.  The story is that Ben Bernanke does not have the confidence of the US citizens.  The story is, as you say, that the big banks are in it again...systemically exposed to a short squeeze that, if they actually had to do their books correctly, would reveal yet another problem there, another collateral time bomb.

Then again, if the story leads to the issue of the books of the biggest criminal syndicate Wall Street banks, then we are all f'd....so....lets talk about....the burrito scam that was just revealed last night!  Or.....shopping!!  OR LULU!!!

 

Cue the Robot chart man.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 09:04 | 1191923 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Cdad - Thank you for stating what I was attempting to more clearly.

I am very new at interpreting action in the precious metal complex to action in the real financial world, but when I see that there is literally a shortage of silver available for delivery or in inventory by major dealers, and I personally know of educated people demanding that transactions of unrelated types be completed through payment of physical gold or silver, it tells me that this is more than just a bubble based on perception, but rather a complete loss of confidence in the ability and/or willingness of the Federal Reserve to stem the tide.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 09:14 | 1191972 Commander Cody
Commander Cody's picture

It is also tacit acknowledgement that the paper asset world is teetering on the edge of the abyss.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 09:18 | 1191980 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Brother Truth,

Indeed, the Federal Reserve Bank MAY be able to stem the tide...although figuring the cumulative effects of the currency war now engaged is rather hard to do.  As you suggest, the problem is that there is no willingness to stem the tide.  

The tide is inflation, which is seen in the price action of metals, inflation being the one story here, not the price action.  Another being a new currency.  Attention BlowHorn [CNBC]:  even a 13 year-old journalist wanna be can figure out what I am writing here...so...just sayin'...if you consider yourself a news agency...you know.

Anyway, inflation is what Ben wants, or more accurately what Congress needs to make debt vanish.  In the meantime, if our personal debt increases, or the service on our debt increase, or if we lose our jobs and are kicked out of you houses by J. Dimon, the leader of the criminal syndicate Wall Street banker enemy, or if we cannot afford to eat or drive our cars....all of us BE DAMNED!  

Whew....that feels better.  I think you have your thumb on the essence of it, brother Truth:  a lack of willingness.  Hmmmmm?

More 15 second bump stories about gold price action!

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 11:27 | 1192470 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

I would say its not only a lack of confidence in the Fed but the U.S. Congress which is the most important one in the world. We have over one half of the Congress not only deny a budget or balance sheet problem but saying that we need to make it worse ("invest more") to make things better. The other half of Congress admits a problem but probably does not have the courage to make the extreme decisions NOW that need to be done. I don't even think they realize that the time bomb has nearly finished counting down.

I see the Fed as the bartender-enabler of the spendaholics in Congress. This is what is driving PM's and commodities in my mind. It sure is for me...that and completely unfundable social obligations.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 09:16 | 1191985 PY-129-20
PY-129-20's picture

Robot Trader is just a metapher for the whole market...displaying an attitude that will be crushed - at least, for a while.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 08:48 | 1191875 youngman
youngman's picture

I think there are people in the INNER CIRCLE of this country that still think we are the leader of the world...what the USA says and does is king....that we can do anything and it will have no impact...we are not...the BRICS see that and laugh...the rest of the world is making plans for when the USA goes away.....and they are right..

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 11:32 | 1192490 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

Well, when you are about 25% of the entire world's GDP and major trading partner for most nations they cannot laugh at us...even if they want to. We used to be the battleship in the world and they all tethered their boats to us. Now the battleship is sinking and if they don't untether they will sink with us. I see China, Russia, and maybe Germany in the future trying to untether. Germany is tethered to the EU trying to save the PIIGS, as well, so they have really complicated problems.

We should do the same as citizens.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 08:42 | 1191847 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

US corporations are firing to make sure the Fed doesn't start tightening...

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 08:42 | 1191848 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Regarding the FRN's, I assume there is some level that Benron will support?  They aren't THAT crazy, are they?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 08:44 | 1191856 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

I'm afraid they are. Chair creature knows no limit.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 08:47 | 1191872 Cdad
Cdad's picture

I should think he would need to keep his powder dry for the all time low, down around $71 and change.  Considering that he has pissed off the entire world, he would be arrogant to try to step in and stem the tide here.  Furthermore, I don't think he wants the dollar supported here.  Why not take that [implied] extra three dollar inflation cushion?

 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 09:36 | 1192056 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

It's currency war - the Saudi's and Chinese haven't been wiped out enough yet, The Bernanke only comes in for the late save when the perceived end is days away and all has been bought back or dumped for pennies on the dollar. Then the dollar will grow again because it will be backed by gold or a basket of PM's -- you wouldn't buy back your own company stock at a high price if you didn't have to would you ? 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 09:58 | 1192124 Cdad
Cdad's picture

 you wouldn't buy back your own company stock at a high price if you didn't have to would you ?

Josh,

I followed you right to that point.  Report to a chart of Chipotle to see how and why you might buy a stock back at a high.  If your plan is to engineer a market cap...and then dump said shares all "capped up" into an index so that it can be shoveled like shit into Average Joe's 401k...you might buy a stock back at the high.  You know, if you understood the plan.

Indeed, whether or not Ben CAN save the dollar at its all time low depends...on the agenda at the time the price arrives there, and also just how many other nations are shooting at him while he goes for the stick save.  Odds of calling the outcome....same as roulette?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 10:21 | 1192201 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

your thoughts are plausible - my projection is that there are enough true power brokers in the US that don't want a one world currency other than King Dollar, but before they right the ship they want to wipe as many poker players at the table as possible

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 08:50 | 1191879 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

I have thought along those lines for some time Cursive... not anymore. All they think is "save the game" at the expense of REAL value. It's hysterical how most of the population has no idea how bad living standards are about to get.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 08:40 | 1191849 johny2
johny2's picture

Equity markets thrive on increased use of the food vouchers, look at the charts.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 08:40 | 1191851 Charlie_Day
Charlie_Day's picture

Anyone catch Mishkin getting grilled? Pretty fucking funny.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 08:46 | 1191859 long juan silver
long juan silver's picture

Wasn't on Bloomberg.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 20:31 | 1206069 tomster0126
tomster0126's picture

missed, it is there a link to it online?

 

www.forecastfortomorrow.com

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 08:44 | 1191858 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

So lets see we, have GE who outsources as many jobs as possible an so does Eaton and others and only have order takers. Yeap, next year only 40 % will pay taxes as more layoffs continue. BTW HK is doing great.

http://www.economywatch.com/%20economy-business-and-finance-news/hong-ko...

 

Hang the Corp and Congress Bitchez. Don't forget thier family.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 08:48 | 1191864 long juan silver
long juan silver's picture

But Imeldt gives Obamay a hell of a hand job under the table.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 08:46 | 1191860 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Welcome to the new normal:

1. Wall Street speculative frenzies with easy money lead to bubble burstings...

2. Wall Street gets massive bailouts and more easy money...

3. Wall Street speculative frenzies with easy money lead to more bubble burstings...

4. Half the world chokes on surging food and energy prices and the MSM ignores it as they celebrate corporate earnings...

100% FUBAR.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 08:54 | 1191883 jtz5
jtz5's picture

Tyler,

With the Fed taking open questions from the media following the next FOMC meeting, how about writing an article "Questions I would ask Bernanke" in case some MSM reads ZH and needs some good ideas.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 09:00 | 1191906 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

+100

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 11:25 | 1192448 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Q 4 the bernank: why won't you die (bitchez)?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 08:54 | 1191888 n9lhm
n9lhm's picture

Looking into my crystal ball, I predict..... I predict....... that next week's number will be much lower due to the Good Friday holiday, and it will be heralded as an 'economic improvement' and 'great news'. :)

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 09:02 | 1191927 anti Oligarchy
anti Oligarchy's picture

which the algos will run with and get another 2% gain in the market. 

There is some point in the very near future when they will determine enough sheeple have bought in they'll flip the switch and 2 minutes later the S&P will be down 20%

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 11:46 | 1192554 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

You missed past headlines. Even bad news is good news because when it's bad it's not as bad as feared so in fact it's getting better, even though it's getting worse because it's not as bad as it could have been. So markets should rise.

Remember, apart from the bailouts and stimulus the unemployment rate would have been 100%. So, all hail Obama!

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 08:54 | 1191889 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Gloom is Good, will be the Orwellian Newspeak for the next 2 months in the equities, as QE(n+1) heads off into ad infinitum from June. The Zimbabwean stock indices were leading the CPI, over 5 years ago. Think about it.

 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 08:54 | 1191896 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

Need more qe, more i say! This time they will cut $1000 checks to the unemployed instead of bond buys.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 09:07 | 1191939 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

$1000 doesn't go nearly as far as it did a year ago.

$10,000 swipe cards for all.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 20:32 | 1206077 tomster0126
tomster0126's picture

$1,000 will last a week, barely!  More QE?  I'm with it, as long as Bernanke just keeps his trap shut and starts using his brain.

 

www.forecastfortomorrow.com

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 08:57 | 1191903 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Look at how the hucksters reported this data:

"Fewer people sought unemployment aid last week"

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fewer-people-sought-apf-381478719.html?x=0...

This new weekly data was much worse than expected, and the cheerleaders herald it as a victory.

Calgon, take me away!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvE65VOcAL0

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 09:06 | 1191934 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Here is an excerpt from that article:

<<<  Applications near 375,000 are consistent with sustainable job growth. >>>

Since WHEN have 375,000 weekly unemployment claims been representative of sustainable job growth?  That BS number has ratcheted higher so the MSM can claim this is good news.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 09:29 | 1192032 nonclaim
nonclaim's picture

In the other news chocolate ration has been increased to 20 grams a week.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 09:08 | 1191942 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

 

Bloomjerk don't even feature it. Who cares about jobs when Morgan Stanley can use appealing semiotics on paper to boost the bottom line?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 09:21 | 1192004 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

1. Easy money for Wall Street to speculate with...

2. Bubbles burst... and Wall Street gets even more easy money...

3. Rinse.  Repeat.

Goddam this nonsense.

 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 08:59 | 1191910 MarketFox
MarketFox's picture

Here is the way it is....

Since when is an American labor unit worth 10X a BRIC labor unit....

 

The only way to equilibrate is currency dilution....

 

The only tool left in the box....that the FED is willing to use....

 

The real solution would be to reduce government add back cost....ie eliminate the grotesgue size of government to no more than 5% of the economy...including state governments....THEN one would see real strength....rather than the current nonsense and complete offshoring of middle class labor.....

If the US population had the balls....this would already be happening....

 

The US needs another ¨Brave Heart¨hero...

 

Another ¨Mel Gibson¨.....

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 09:00 | 1191913 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

who needs a job, better to have unemployment checks , food stamps and free mortgages ....think next up is the disability play

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 09:03 | 1191919 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

OT: Seems like someone is about to panic. Big bad redemption monster is looming dead ahead. I hope Finland does the only responsible thing and says no to these back door bank bail outs.

04-21 08:49: Portugal's government minister Silva Pereira says Portugal "trusts" aid to include all EU countries, also still expects aid approved by May 16
Thu, 04/21/2011 - 09:09 | 1191943 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Iceland & Finland could be on the cusp of starting the 'austerity for banksters' saga of history.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 09:20 | 1191995 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

I truly hope so. It's amazing how far these EU-cleptocrats are willing to go. Rehn is openly pressuring Finland to "do the right thing" and in the same sentence saying "EU will not get involved in the domestic political process". Same thing happening as with the Lisbon Treaty back in the days. Do it or else... They call it democracy but it couldn't possibly be farther from it.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 09:03 | 1191921 Kina
Kina's picture

How long before 50m on food stamps.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 09:03 | 1191930 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

My profits would be way higher if I didn't pay any taxes either.  

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 09:07 | 1191940 nonclaim
nonclaim's picture

I thought, for a long while, that they (BLS, Geithner, Bernanke, Obama, etc) were lying to deceive us while doing their mischiefs... but now I'm getting worried: they might actually *believe* in what they do. It's neither malice nor stupidity, they belong to the mental asylum.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 09:16 | 1191981 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Geithner is the face of incompetence.

Literally.

Bernanke is the face of incompetence and/or malice.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 09:12 | 1191952 obelisks
obelisks's picture

How long will this crap continue...bring on the implosion

and then we can all start again.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 10:10 | 1192162 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

We're going into a Mega Depression!

Buckle up, folks!

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:31 | 1192987 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

"Suck it in and cope..."

C. Munger -- Financial Welfare Queen

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 11:41 | 1192533 OS2010
OS2010's picture

WSJ headline:  "Jobs Data Signal Progress."

I don't know why I keep paying money to that yellowsheet.

 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:02 | 1192859 redpill
redpill's picture

Well it is progress.

 

If your destination is Thunderdome.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 11:48 | 1192568 franzpick
franzpick's picture

A 5 year graph showing the upwardly revised figures on the top line, and the initially reported figures on the line below, would show the regular, ongoing, understatement of reality.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:50 | 1192894 cbxer55
cbxer55's picture

In the Daily Oklahoman yesterday, " Oklahoma's lowest unemployment number in two years could reflect a turning point in state economic conditions, but also may  be a function of a new way of compiling the numbers.

The jobless rate fell to 6.1 percent in March, a 0.4% improvement from February and the lowest rate since March 2009.

The new method, which among other things eliminates the judgement of  local analysts, is expected to produce more volatility in the monthly numbers."

Cut to the chase, whats the new way of compiling numbers? The monthly employment report was produced for the first time by the U.S. Bureau pf Labor Statistics, rather than the state Unemployment Commission.

The report estimates Oklahoma added 13,300 jobs in March, including 3,600 Construction jobs.

The last two paragraphs: The state is contractually prohibited from presenting estimates compiled using the previous methods. The implementation of the new procedures has produced some resistance from several states that wanted to continue issuing their own employment numbers.

The BLS heard that and put it in our contract with them that we're not able to do that.

So now the BLS is doing all 50 states, in addition to the country's numbers, and the states are not allowed to confirm or deny the numbers using methods they previously utilized. And WOW, in just one month Oklahoma added 13,300 jobs!!! 3600 in construction, WOW!!!! I wonder what they are constructing???? I really wonder what they are smoking? I could use some of that! ;=) Have not seen any big projects here in Oklahoma City.

So now the numbers released by all 50 states are going to have THE SPIN put on them as well. YIPPEE, all is well, buy, buy, buy, BTFD.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:29 | 1192965 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

" as always happens, the BLS revised last week's non-credible mega miss even worse, from 412K to 416K."

Obummer's Favorite "Lie By Revision"
By giving a lying good number today, only to revise it to the real crappy number next month...

Obummer has in reality revised himself a really shitty record to run on...

And this Tele-Promptering-Proctologist is the "brains" of the US political class?

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!