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25% Of Scotia Mocatta's Silver Transferred From "Registered" To "Eligible" Status: A 45% Reduction In "Physical"

Tyler Durden's picture


Something interesting appeared in the daily NYMEX report of its silver warehouse stockpile data: Canada's largest bullion depository (and one of five total) reclassified a whopping 5.2 million ounces of silver from Registered to Eligible status. In order to get a sense of how big this amount is, which amounts to just under $238 million at today's fixing price, it represents just over 25% of the total silver stored at Scotia Mocatta, and about 5% of the total silver held across all depositories. The reason for this substantial shift is given as follows: "due to a reporting reclassification, 5,287,142 t oz was moved from Registered to Eligible." That's a pretty substantial reporting reclassification. Of course it could well be nothing but that, although one would imagine that a fat finger is somewhat unlikely when it comes to such a material amount. On the other hand, as those who follow the NYMEX data know too well, registered silver is actual physical Comex silver. Eligible on the other hand is sometimes called "someone else's silver" as it does not go through assays on exit/selling events. In other words, this is silver that can not be used to make delivery under a futures contract. As a result of this reclass, total registered silver dropped by 13% from 41.0 million ounces to 35.8 million. Assuming one does not have full faith in the simple error story, does this mean that deliverable silver just dropped by 13% overnight (this event occurred yesterday, but was reported as usual with a 24 hour delay)? And if so, is this effective transformation of physical to semi-paper silver indicative of what we may expect from other depositories in the next few days as the delivery notices start coming in?

Snapshot of silver holdings (link):

For those who are confused about the distinction between the two categories, SilverAxis has done a good analysis:

For those who aren’t familiar with the terminology, the registered category of COMEX warehouse bullion stocks generally refers to gold and silver bars against which COMEX warehouse receipts are outstanding. The COMEX publishes these stocks on a daily basis and they can be found here: Silver | Gold. The registered category is the total pool of gold and silver available at any time to meet delivery requirements under expiring futures contracts or to establish initial futures contract positions through a transaction called exchange-for-physicals (I’ll explain this another time). It is important to realize, however, that many parties holding COMEX gold and silver in registered form have no intention of making their holdings available for delivery. By this I mean that such parties are neither (1) holding a short futures position against the warehouse receipt nor (2) willing to sell their registered metal (warehouse receipts) to a party with a short futures position. Indeed, a substantial portion of those holding registered metal would have acquired the COMEX warehouse receipts by holding long futures positions for delivery. In other words, these registered stocks are held for investment and not for commercial purposes.

In comparison, the eligible category of COMEX warehouse bullion stocks generally refers to bullion held in the warehouses that meets the specifications of an acceptable COMEX bar (proper weight, size, purity and refiner) but does not have a COMEX warehouse receipt issued against it. For example, an investor might purchase several 1,000 oz. bars of silver from a dealer and then deliver the bars for allocated storage at a COMEX warehouse. This is a private arrangement and has nothing to do with the COMEX. Unless these bars are officially registered (the easiest way to do this is through the aforementioned exchange-for-physicals), they will remain in the eligible category until withdrawn from the warehouse by the investor. Thus, the appropriate way to treat eligible COMEX warehouse bullion stocks is that they represent metal that could potentially be registered at some point in the future but cannot presently be used to make delivery under a short futures contract.

We will follow this curious development which had not occured prior to silver entering its "parabolic" phase.

P.S. For those curious, Scotia Mocatta had a comparable "glitch" affecting its gold stocks, where 13% of its registered gold mozzied off to eligible status.

h/t DrDerivative


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Wed, 04/20/2011 - 20:19 | 1190550 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

Fook'n Banana republic USA... everyday it reaches a new low.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 20:26 | 1190573 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Obama on the trillion dollar bill. Zimbabwe here come.

When do you think we will see dxy with a 73 handle? This week?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:06 | 1190684 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

I would guess within two weeks. 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:15 | 1190711 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

You are an optimist

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:29 | 1190914 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Maybe tomorrow. Looks bad right now.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:14 | 1191079 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture


How about tonight?

(Currently at 74.06)


Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:49 | 1191381 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

....and $46.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 02:51 | 1191479 Michael
Michael's picture

Get this strait you fucking morons, not you LH; It is impossible for Ben Bernank to stop QE to infinity, for the exact second he does there will be an immediate complete and total worldwide economic collapse of biblical proportions that will make the great depression look like a fucking picnic. Got it? Keep buying silver like there is no tomorrow, WHEREVER YOU CAN FIND IT. There's no more physical silver on the store shelves. IT'S OVER, GOT IT?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 06:48 | 1191690 bushboy
bushboy's picture

True tthere will be a collapse, this is why people will look for a form of capitol preservation, PMs seem to fit this bill for all the aformentioned topics/replies on ZH. so we are not all Fin Morons, we are smart people. Whatever you do is/will be your problem. I have never felt more secure then being fully invested in Gold and Silver physical.


Thu, 04/21/2011 - 03:47 | 1191536 joe.schmuck
joe.schmuck's picture

Down to 73.85 - 0.7% for the day - wow

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:43 | 1191372 Silver Alert
Silver Alert's picture

This is an official Silver Alert:

USDX has fallen to 73.xx territory and Ag is above $46/oz.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 02:36 | 1191460 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

the dollar support is gone already for a while.

Something really cool needs to happen to turn the tide.

Turning water into wine won't cut it this time.



Thu, 04/21/2011 - 03:48 | 1191538 Quintus
Quintus's picture

Right now actually.  Thursday morning GMT and I see 73.89

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 04:30 | 1191575 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

PMs seem to be inversely correlated to Obama's popularity, and the Congress' integrity. Hat tip to Jesse...

"Remember we are entering a period of May option expiration at Comex, on Tuesday April 26th.

As I mentioned earlier today, something is obviously up. I am trying to get to some level of understanding of it, and am wading through rumours, innuendo, and speculation. But there is something happening behind the scenes, I am now sure of it. And it might be big, because the usual trading desk chatterers don't seem to know what it is. Or aren't talking.

But I am wondering, are the BRICs going to make their move?  Or is it something else."

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 05:50 | 1191635 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Wow snidely. I'm seeing the same thing. It's just looking like brics are going to try to take over reserve currency. I don't think it's going to last but I do think it's going to force out an all out attack on libya, iran, north korea to try to bring them under fed control. While they are trying to resupply arms in a 120 dollar an ounce silver world. China's stored up all the copper so even copper jacketed bullets are going to be a bitch to afford. Now that japan has crippled the entire electronics industry, it's just coming down to a race to the finish line with knives in your back and broken legs.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 20:24 | 1190575 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Just wanted to say....

I used to be skeptical about PM's.  But, thanks to sites like this, Turds, Harvey Organ, SGS, and Trader Dan, I bought heavily in January of this year.

Yes, it took me a while to be convinced and I'm not up as much as some of you who bought at $5, $10.... etc.  Although I've never tried to troll y'all about PM's, at times I was skeptical, as some of the counter arguments can be convincing and I was junked heavily for it.

Now I see where this world is headed.  I've seen the light, so to speak.  TopCallingTroll a few weeks ago also made some statements regarding a change of heart, so I guess some of us just take longer.

I would just like to say thanks to everyone on here for your patience.  Bay of Pigs responded to me last year and it really made me think and since then I've kinda become a PM bull.  Eric Sprott and King World News have also been really enlightening.

THANK YOU ALL.  I have donated to the various sites with my devaluing FRN's, as you have all been helpful.

I plan on waiting until next week before loading up again.  I think the Cartel will be out in full force this weekend.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 20:31 | 1190589 Bob
Bob's picture

Just want to add a shout out for user Gordon Gecko, who pioneered PM life at ZH.  Enjoy them coins, Gordon!

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 20:52 | 1190651 Dejean Splicer
Dejean Splicer's picture

Yea and I just wanted to give a shout to Cheeky Bastard who personified Structured Credit Products man. Enjoy them tranches, man. Slice 'em and dice'em. Enjoy.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:23 | 1190897 bonddude
bonddude's picture

Yes, I hope they are well especially CB. One smart MF. And GG, I thought waiting for the next crash was gonna be the right time but f*ck it. Change is in the air. Jim Grant is right. GG was right. It's not coming back because its real $$$. As MC Hammer said "can't touch this." Physical and North Am miners? I'm in !!!

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:16 | 1190713 Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

And the outrageously over the top Project Mayhem, hope all is well with him.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:38 | 1190768 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

Actually, Project Mayhem brought me to this site originally. I loved the geo-political reality check every Monday and the connecting of dots linking finance, global banking and results on the street ....

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:47 | 1190790 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Ya, he all of the sudden just went missing.  I miss his insights bigtime.


Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:57 | 1191203 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

It makes my heart sing that I've helped anyone out there in cyberland.

ZH has been a huge benefit to all of us. Thanks to TD and crew. This is the best site I've ever found for PM investors, hands down. The posters here are simply unbelievable.

Aloha my friend and best wishes to you....

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:57 | 1190794 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

dp..... again!



Thu, 04/21/2011 - 07:25 | 1191718 ArgentDawn
ArgentDawn's picture

GW & Project Mayhem is the leader in alt news of all of the internets.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:22 | 1190736 gordengeko
gordengeko's picture

Godspeed my friend. Hope some got some fiat shit paper agq also. I've put quite a few in silver and once we hit 50 I will make them relinquish some of their fiat profits and convert to physical. They promised.:) a cool 100% fiat profit in less then 4 months strictly off of silver deserves it!!! Fuck JPM, you subverted our govt and we are coming for you!

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:32 | 1191132 gordengeko
gordengeko's picture

Keep in mind tho, JPM is in fact connected to the US dollar economy just like GS.  Their recourse will be to crash margins and bring everything down vis a vis 2008 but if the physical is taken off the market like it has been with PM's, eventually they will hold their value.  Meaning even tho you have fiat equity in silver/gold, imo they shouldn't get hammered like everything else.  The value of the dollar might very well be removed as "the world reserve currency" but in the end it will still be a registered currency and hold value much like anything else (euro, peso, etc.)  Therefore you can trade your fiat shit paper dollar for the new NWO currency (obviously would depend on it's nominal value compared to the other fiat paper of the world).  There will still be some sort of paper to hold said value, it's just a matter of how much weight it has in relation to the physical "real" commodity it is in relation to.  Feel free to correct me if my thinking is wrong.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 20:44 | 1190620 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Has anyone taken their own scrap to a refiner? Just curious, I heard you need like 6oz or more.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:21 | 1190719 cxl9
cxl9's picture

Some quick Googling produced this result:

He claims to pay 90% (of spot?) for junk silver, no minimum amount. I have no prior knowledge of or affiliation with this entity.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:30 | 1190926 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Thank but I can't see how there's no minimum. That's where the scummy cash for gold businesses come in to pay 20-40% of spot.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:49 | 1191190 yabyum
yabyum's picture

You have to pay for the guy in the chicken out fit i front w/sign...overhead!!

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 02:57 | 1191490 newworldorder
newworldorder's picture

A gold dealer in the Chicago area pays 10% to 15% below daily price  by gold purity. He was referred to me by a gold smelter and appears to be reputable.

Hoffman Estates 20 yrs BBB A+ $39 dwt paid 14K gold

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:22 | 1190735 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

My shop has a smelter. It's used for casting aluminum and brass parts to be machined. When we fire it up we also melt scrap Gold, Silver, and Copper in it before we shut it down.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 04:42 | 1191585 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

My wife has a collection of old American Indian jewelry...about 100 rings, some belt buckles, necklaces, ear rings, etc. It's too pretty to melt down and I believe it will be great for barter in the future. We also have lots of silver in coin form that we bought at $7, 12 and 17 and a lot of old morgans and peace dollars, halves and quarters.

A big thank you to Zero Hedge! 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:32 | 1190757 knukles
knukles's picture

If you've a good friend who's a jeweler or dentist, they can probably point you in the right direction.  They'll generally deal with scraps as by product of their business.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:15 | 1191233 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Now there is an idea. How about Gold fillings from the dead. Time to raid the cemetery . All I need is some papers and a badge claiming I am an investigator.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:08 | 1191320 bluebare
bluebare's picture

Been there.  Done that.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:36 | 1191360 Midwest Prepper
Midwest Prepper's picture

What a dirty, filthy, disgusting job!

"Could be worse. Could be raining!"

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 03:04 | 1191502 newworldorder
newworldorder's picture

I always loved that movie.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 03:04 | 1191503 newworldorder
newworldorder's picture

I always loved that movie.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 03:48 | 1191539 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Could be worse.  Could have to work for JP Morgan and be Blythe Master's douche nozzle.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 20:46 | 1190635 unununium
unununium's picture

>I plan on waiting until next week before loading up again. I think the Cartel will be out in full force this weekend.

Correct bias and correct short term strategy, FTW.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:50 | 1190801 Absinthe Minded
Absinthe Minded's picture

Welcome aboard! Better late than never. Most people I talk with at work kind of understand we're screwed but don't try to acquire any themselves. I even offer to buy it for them on my account and split the shipping costs, no dice. I pray to God PM's drop like a rock because if they don't soon I'm afraid of the future my children are going to have.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:19 | 1191089 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

that would be the denial phase, and most people sense there's an ill wind but they refuse to acknowledge that 'something wicked this way comes' and I've got news for those people, it's going to get here sooner than they think. wishing it away won't work but they think that if they ignore the obvious for long enough it will all be better.

a few of the people I dine with occasionally, bought PM's back in 2008 but they don't talk about it because I believe they still think that it's not discussed in polite company.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:13 | 1190868 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ nope-1004

I was late to the Silver Party (and redid calculations to get my average cost of about $26 / oz), But I have been a believer in gold for decades.

You are absolutely right about the high caliber people here at ZH.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 02:38 | 1191462 Ethics Gradient
Ethics Gradient's picture

Except me. I'm a complete wankel.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 22:11 | 1206342 Hacked Economy
Hacked Economy's picture

I was late, too (my calculations show my dollar-cost average at just over $30).  Better late than never.  When the Titanic goes down, all that matters is that you're in a lifeboat and no longer on the deck with the screaming masses.

Aside from all that class-warfare stuff, tho'  :)

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:46 | 1191178 Maos Dog
Maos Dog's picture

I am a late comer also, started silver at $18 and gold at 1100.

What helped convince me, and I know this sounds dumb, but when I got my first tube of silver and once of gold, I just thought it was beautiful, I love to hold it, it just feels like money. Birds like shiny things, maybe it's some primal thing deep in the brain or something.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:13 | 1191236 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

A Crow grabbed the keys to my truck, never seen 'em again.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 02:14 | 1191427 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

laughing - snorting - lol

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:28 | 1191262 Edmund Dantes
Edmund Dantes's picture

right. never be too long a gold or silver spec position around the time of a FED meeting. They will hit it hard next week..... THEN start loading up some more.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:28 | 1191263 Edmund Dantes
Edmund Dantes's picture

right. never be too long a gold or silver spec position around the time of a FED meeting. They will hit it hard next week..... THEN start loading up some more.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:31 | 1191267 Edmund Dantes
Edmund Dantes's picture

right. never be too long a gold or silver spec position around the time of a FED meeting. They will hit it hard next week..... THEN start loading up some more.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:36 | 1190752 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

OT (sorry):

Steve Wynn says he's using Chinese Casino revenue to offset losses in U.S. and that American Middle Class is Being Wiped Out by Governmental/Federal Reserve Policy :
Fri, 04/22/2011 - 09:31 | 1195783 MorningStar
MorningStar's picture

How low does it get in America before everything just falls apart?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 20:17 | 1190551 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Well, let's see if this stirs up the pot tomorrow.

I have always been more of a gold guy, but I have enough silver to be enjoying this.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 20:27 | 1190578 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

For poor mans told it sure is outpacing gold by a wide margin with room to go. I favor it as it's more practical to hold possession and convert into toilet paper if needed.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 20:33 | 1190595 Eternal Student
Eternal Student's picture

One also has to wonder if this is related to the Comex data being released so late for Monday and Tuesday? Perhaps they had to figure out their story, and try to get it straight?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:55 | 1191009 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

$45.85 at 10:52 PM ET.

Looks like the pot is getting stirred up tonight!

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:18 | 1191330 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

LOL!  now, it's 10:17 West coast time, and it's $45.85, again!  Hahaha!

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 20:20 | 1190553 mr66
mr66's picture

I still do not believe in the JP Morgue short silver story until the stock of these scumbags flashes a triple bottom breakdown on a Pt. and fig. chart.  If they were really caught short, why hasn't some of the most powerful hedge fds. come in and sell short JP Morgue?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 20:36 | 1190597 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

You're missing a part of the story. JPM is not short all on its own accord, but rather is acting as an agent of the US Treasury.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:08 | 1190691 dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture

It might be China instead of the Treasury:

JPMorgan must have some reason to justify the big concentrated COMEX silver short position. If they claim that they are long silver OTC swap positions as an offset to their COMEX short position, it becomes critical that the CFTC inquire who is holding the short side of the OTC silver swaps. My belief is that it will be Chinese interests on the short side of the swap. Such a finding will lead the CFTC to conclude that it is really China holding the concentrated silver short position and they are using JPMorgan and the CME Group as their dupes to carry out the silver manipulation. This wouldn’t absolve JPMorgan or the CME for enabling China to manipulate silver, but actually make it worse. A foreign super power and clear rival to US national interests being aided and abetted in the serious market crime of manipulation in the price of a vital world commodity by leading US financial firms is almost too outrageous to contemplate. Yet that is exactly what I think has occurred.


Add to this,

Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) may unilaterally terminate derivative contracts with six foreign banks that provide over-the-counter commodity hedging services, a leading financial magazine said.



Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:19 | 1190886 SWCroaker
SWCroaker's picture

Um, what if it is just AIG, doing what AIG does best: taking the wrong end of every bet?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:35 | 1190942 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

I call BS on the China idea.  Yes, China probably wants to buy cheap.  However, if the massive naked short positions were not advancing the interests of the PTB here, Crimex would have acted.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:01 | 1191312 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

I'm betting on both.  Treasury started the manipulation then when the Chinese started in Tiny Tim said "It's good by me" and thanked them for their efforts.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 04:52 | 1191596 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

China has been hedging it's US Ts and FRNs with gold and silver for some time. It has been reported numerous times that China is buying large positions in any PM ETF that offers delivery of physical PMs and then taking delivery instead of holding the paper. It's totally legal and one way for China to purchase PMs when the physical is hard to come by. If you were holding $3Trillion of dodgy US paper you would do the same.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:33 | 1190721 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

You're question imples that Hedge Funds are always first to the party.  Not by a long shot (although they tend to ruin the fun when they show up.)

Small funds dont matter they are just like you and me.  Large Diversified Hedge funds have been too focused on the Bernanke put under the financials.  Shorting the financials during QE is . . well . . dumb.

Those who do know the story don't believe the price and maybe only slightly net long on a day-to-day basis.  I am pretty confident that there are only a few fund managers in the world who even consider that the silver story could take down a bank like JPM.  Most think Silver is in a bubble.  Of course, the average HFer's head is i a bubble so if you want to do what they are doing, please do so by all means.  Remember being right about silver as a hedge fund means you are likely wrong about a lot of other things.

Hedges will pile in, but there is not enough blood in the water on this yet. 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:35 | 1190770 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

I've read several times in your comments that you don't believe in the JPM short position.

Not sure what might convince you otherwise, but why not start reading Ed Steer's column.  It comes out daily and can be sent free to your very own email box.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 20:18 | 1190554 Hacked Economy
Hacked Economy's picture

It's still time to get your hands on physical.  I'm getting more tomorrow...

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:20 | 1190725 Big Ben
Big Ben's picture

Eventually I expect to be able to trade one silver quarter for a wheelbarrow full of $1 FRNs. To be used as toilet paper.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:30 | 1190748 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

That will not work. People will be very upset if you use Dollars to wipe your ass.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:52 | 1190811 knukles
knukles's picture

Yes, that would be debasing the currency.  And that's illegal.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:22 | 1191062 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

I don't see why you have to insult a commodity, with a good and full faith backing toilet paper, which will be one of the most precious of commodities soon, much more valuable than silver ever possibly could become, by comparing it to dollars.

Long Charmin Mega-Packs and splatter guards for fans.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:23 | 1191097 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

Unfortunately that's a bad choice although it might be cheaper, it's not designed to breakdown in the shitter like butt-wipe. Use it and you'll end up creating a clog pretty quickly.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:55 | 1191182 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

Yes but I just called a friend of mine in Australia, Said he just bought some  new shiny Kookaburra one ounce coins for 40.70 Aussie. One Benjamin gets me one lousy coin and a happy meal. For some reason I find myself looking forward to the day I can take Mr. Franklin with his shit eating smirk and well............

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:20 | 1190726 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

Yeah, dollar is stable and retains all it's buying power.  You can still buy a gallon of gas with two bucks or a can of tuna for half a buck. These must be idiots collecting these silver trinkets when they could hold paper from any of the central banksters..  Or maybe you're the fool.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:32 | 1190745 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Peru And Mexico Jockey For Top Global Silver Producer

LIMA -(Dow Jones)- Peru and Mexico are again jockeying for bragging rights as the world's largest silver miner. Both nations have long histories as silver producers dating back to before the Spanish era began. Mines from both nations helped fuel the Spanish empire from the sixteenth century. For years Mexico was ahead of Peru, but the bustling mining industry in the Andean nation allowed it to pull ahead over the last 10 years. A Mexican mining official threw down the gauntlet last week however. Jaime Lomelin, chief executive of the world's biggest primary silver miner Fresnillo PLC (FRES.LN) said Mexicans should be "proud" that the country will once again be the top silver producer, but didn't give a time frame.

Fresnillo said it expects to add between 4.5 million and 5 million troy ounces in 2011, to reach about 44 million troy ounces. Last Thursday a director at Peru's Ministry of Energy and Mines, Henry Luna, said Peru's production in 2011 should reach 131,455,159 troy ounces, or about 4,089 metric tons, well up from the 3,637 tons produced in 2010. Earlier this month Luna also said Peru should maintain its number one producer position over the next few years. Although no forecast for Mexico's 2011 production was immediately available, the latest figures show that up to November last year the country produced 2,848 tons, at a monthly production average of 258,919 kilograms. Assuming December is the same, that would bring Mexico's 2010 production to about 3,107 tons. To match Peru's 2011 forecast it would have to add almost another 1,000 tons.

Interest in increasing production of silver has gone alongside rising prices.


Silver Production 2010

Silver mine production rose by 2.5 percent to 735.9 Moz in 2010 aided by new projects in Mexico and Argentina. Gains came from primary silver mines and as a by-product of lead/zinc mining activity, whereas silver volumes produced as a by-product of gold fell 4 percent last year. Mexico eclipsed Peru as the world’s largest silver producing country in 2010, and Peru is followed by China, Australia and Chile. Global primary silver supply recorded a 5 percent increase to account for 30 percent of total mine production in 2010.

Primary silver mine cash costs remained relatively flat year-on-year, falling by less than 1 percent to $5.27/oz. from a revised $5.29/oz. in 2009.

Net silver supply from above-ground stocks increased to 142.9 Moz in 2010, primarily due to higher scrap supply, a shift of net-producer hedging to the supply side, and a considerable rise in net-government stock sales. Regarding scrap supply, 2010 witnessed a 14 percent increase over 2009 as gains in industrial and jewelry recycling exceeded an ongoing decline in recovery from photographic sources. The swing to net-producer hedging of 61.1 Moz ended a four-year run of de-hedging and is attributed to higher silver prices and was limited to a group of by-product, rather than primary silver producers.

Net government sales of silver rose to 44.8 Moz, primarily the result of increased sales from Russia, with China and India remaining relatively silent for the second consecutive year.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:34 | 1190762 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Fresnillo said it expects to add between 4.5 million and 5 million troy ounces in 2011

With cash costs between $5 and $10 an ounce we will continue to see more and more silver supply coming on line... 




Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:55 | 1190802 Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

Who would you trust more, Maff Man or Jesse? LMAO

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:52 | 1190806 Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture


Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:34 | 1190932 akak
akak's picture

..... only costs $5 to dig it from the ground .....

..... only costs $5 to dig it from the ground .....

..... only costs $5 to dig it from the ground .....

..... only costs $5 to dig it from the ground .....

..... only costs $5 to dig it from the ground .....

..... only costs $5 to dig it from the ground .....

..... only costs $5 to dig it from the ground .....

..... only costs $5 to dig it from the ground .....

..... only costs $5 to dig it from the ground .....

..... only costs $5 to dig it from the ground .....

..... only costs $5 to dig it from the ground .....

..... only costs $5 to dig it from the ground .....

..... must ...... eat ..... silverholders' ....... brains ........

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:43 | 1190969 55 men
55 men's picture

I was waiting for somebody to say that...

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 02:51 | 1191480 akak
akak's picture

You can lead a troll to water, but you can't make him think.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 08:20 | 1191790 tmosley
tmosley's picture

But you can drown his ass.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 20:49 | 1194837 doggings
doggings's picture

You can lead a troll to water, but you can't make him think.

heh, very good, stealing that ;)

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:40 | 1191368 Blorf
Blorf's picture

Is there some sort of "cost plus" silver mine that I am not aware of?  Who gives a shit what it costs to dig out of a hole?  Silver is required for innumerable electronics gear, and is presently being sought as a monetary alternative. 

There isn't enough silver to supply demand at 44 bucks, which is why is it selling for 45+ dollars.  Bitching about extraction costs is irrelevant-- they aren't running a charity.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 04:53 | 1191597 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Nope, but if you can't recoup your digging costs no one will dig.  The $5 total is utter BS given the structuring of Mining Codes and the current elevated spot price.  Production "taxes" alone could amount to well over $5 in any given jurisdiction.  Think of it this way-

"cost" would be getting it out of the ground

"cost plus" would be getting it out of the ground and to market

Every concession agreement and mining code is different, but as the spot price rises the cost of production will follow it to some degree (varies by country).  Governments have many tools at their disposal- Royalty %, fixed Permitting & Lease payments, Mining Tax %, Export Tax %, blah blah blah. 


Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:40 | 1191369 Blorf
Blorf's picture

Is there some sort of "cost plus" silver mine that I am not aware of?  Who gives a shit what it costs to dig out of a hole?  Silver is required for innumerable electronics gear, and is presently being sought as a monetary alternative. 

There isn't enough silver to supply demand at 44 bucks, which is why is it selling for 45+ dollars.  Bitching about extraction costs is irrelevant-- they aren't running a charity.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:55 | 1190819 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

thanks, Spalding.  interesting to me that your info, ostensibly about who's in "first place" mining silver, actually says that the incresed supplies of the metal did not come mainly from increased mine production.

and, now we have:  "it costs $5.27/oz to mine."   we needed that!  LOL!

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 06:46 | 1191679 Stormdancer
Stormdancer's picture

Do you know what "cash cost" means in mining? Strictly on-site production costs.  Doesn't include exploration, building the mine or building the mill (depreciation/amortization).  Doesn't include off site administrative costs.

In the case of Fresnillo, considered a primary silver miner, zinc and lead are produced as by products and the revenue produced is used to offset the cost of mining the silver (and gold).


"Cash cost" is far from total cost.

Their production of silver has remained flat even as they've expanded mill capacity because they're mining lower grade ores while prices are high...exactly how smart miners get the most out of their mines.

You can't flip a switch and produce more silver.  Increasing capacity is a very long, capital intensive project and even the big boys move slowly when deciding to sink that kind of money into new production.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:19 | 1190888 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ Spalding

THANKS for posting the article about Peru & Mexico duking it out to No. 1 in silver productions.


"A Mexican mining official threw down the gauntlet..."

OK...  Vamos Peru!

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:38 | 1190773 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

You are a complete and incontrovertible idiot.

You have consistently plastered this board with your ill-conceived and badly-forecasted estimates of PMs.

And you expect us to believe you, now, pathetic troll???

One day when I see  your flaccid, unclean ass dragging its way down some forsaken road, begging all the while for a scrap of food, I will remind you of your unseemly and disgusting attitude, shortly before I show you the business end of a 12-guage shotgun.



Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:08 | 1190855 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

A few years ago I read that it cost Saudi Arabia about $3 to bring a barrel of oil to the surface.  And here we are with oil at $120 plus per barrel Brent.  WTF?  Shouldn't it be $10? 

Don't feed the trolls.  You can call a cunt a genius but he is still a cunt. 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:23 | 1190896 matt5hansen
matt5hansen's picture

Thanks for keeping this in prospective, and reminding the winners that it doesn't last for ever.  Eventually, one day, you will be right about the end.  But by that time, your parents will likely be begging you to move out.  


Although, I am seriously impressed that you can still afford an internet connection to post comments here.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:23 | 1191104 redwraith
redwraith's picture

I'm sure you said the same thing when Microsoft hit $10 after advancing from $2 back in 1986.   

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:37 | 1191156 trav7777
trav7777's picture

are you stupid enough to think DXY represents the real value of the dollar?

WTF was gasoline, oil, wheat, anything back then?

I suppose gasoline is in a bubble long has it been since it doubled?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 02:22 | 1191433 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

What does DXY represent in your opinion?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:32 | 1191269 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

Meth Man, watch this blow the lid off silver. Between China inflating there yuan by 10% and this link below, shit is about to hit the fan.


USO and SLV the trading near the same today $44.25.




China's Sinopec cuts off oil exports: state media

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:28 | 1191347 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Aw man...that Chinese crude was the ginchiest too! :>D

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 05:11 | 1191607 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Hat tip to Zero Hedge and Eric Sprott for posting this earlier. When I reposted it on another site I was banned from the site. lol...

"What the so-called silver ‘experts’ neglect to account for in their models and projections is that the fiat money experiment has failed. And in this context, we believe the Market has assigned world reserve currency status to gold - not USD, not EUR, and not JPY. In our opinion, gold’s continued appreciation vis-à-vis every currency is assured because the great flight from fiat has only just begun. Like gold, silver also has a long monetary history, and as such, investors are now also buying silver as protection from the ravages of fiat currency debasement. Yet, when compared to gold, it is silver that offers the most attractive value proposition by virtue of the gross mispricing of its scarcity, which, we might add, has existed for many years. Thus, in our opinion, as this new bimetallic standard takes root, silver investors will continue to be justly rewarded with marked outperformance. We truly believe that this is the investment opportunity of a lifetime, and increasingly so, others are taking heed. What is clear to us is that with equal investment dollars now flowing into silver and gold, the current 35-to-one ratio is unsustainable and has only one direction to go: lower."

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 20:18 | 1190555 UncleFurker
UncleFurker's picture


So the full name of Commodity Exchange Inc. is actually Commodity Exchange If You're Quick Enough Inc. ?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 20:25 | 1190559 Bad Lieutenant
Bad Lieutenant's picture

Interesting stuff.   A majority of my silver holdings are at Delaware Depository (DDSC). As the article describes, my bars would count toward 'eligible' status, but I have no intention of selling them for the near term future.  So I'm asking myself what percent of all eligible silver bars are being held similarly?  Guys, you have to remember, unlike gold, to store a real amount of $$ in silver, you're either taking delivery of a shedload/impractical amount of silver that will make your neighbors notice or you have to use a depository to store it. 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 20:28 | 1190580 hack3434
hack3434's picture

Delaware? good lord...that's the Lawcap plethora. 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 20:54 | 1190652 Big Ben
Big Ben's picture

What is involved in converting from 'eligible' to 'registered'? Do the bars need to be assayed? Or is it just a matter of filing some paperwork?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:49 | 1190803 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Tough call.  I'd probably have the repository package them in small wooden crates then make multiple deliveries to multiple cartage warehouses.  Then you just drive around to each of the cartage companies in a truck and pickup the packages.   Deliver to your home in the night and unload them.   Obviously make sure you aren't followed.  

Wrap in aluminum foil, encase in concrete or plaster and use them as internal bricks in a small structure in your home.   [like a wood stove oven].   When it comes time to USE them.   Break open the brick structure and spend as needed.

Radical idea but it might work.   Good luck.  Wish I had that problem ;-)

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:22 | 1190892 Charlie_Day
Charlie_Day's picture

Or as pointed out before coins stack and fit nicely in pvc pipes. Only you'll know where they are buried. Helps if you have a decent amount of land (which you should).

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:01 | 1191020 Cyrano de Bivouac
Cyrano de Bivouac's picture

It's called "midnight gardening".

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:06 | 1191048 barkster
barkster's picture

i have read that pvc off-gassing tarnishes/corrodes silver...  any ideas to prevent that?


Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:29 | 1191266 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

...yes, just run your drinking water through a few years.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:42 | 1191282 defender
defender's picture

Packing baking soda around you coins should prevent that, as the offending off gassing compound would be Hydrochloric Acid.  Just make sure that the pipe is sealed tight to prevent the baking soda from neutralizing itself. 

In case you haven't heard about the easy way to remove tarnish, just put your coins on top of some aluminum foil in a pot, cover with water, add some baking soda and boil.  The coins will be shiny in a jiffy.  This only works on tarnish, not on corrosion (pitting).

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:33 | 1191357 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

pvc off gassing a problem?  don't use pvc. 

for silver coins and eagles, a small amount of silver tarnish does not diminish the silver value of the coin.  humidity is often the culprit.  corrosion is more serious than tarnish.  if you have a coin whose value depends on the value of silver, slight imperfections are not problematic.  don't start packing your coins in chemicals or dipping them in solvents.  talk to a professional who understands local conditions if something concerns you.  

coin shops have plastic flips which are "archival quality" so you can imagine what people will sell you, if you let them.  on the other hand, if you can use these and get a decent price or a handful thrown in with something, you might like them for your coins.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:10 | 1191052 barkster
barkster's picture



Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:51 | 1190807 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

dupe ... deleted

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:30 | 1191121 seek
seek's picture

100K of silver will fit nicely into a standard filing box. A crazy heavy box, but it'll fit, and would easily fit in a standard gun safe as well.

Even $1M would fit easily in a very small closet or under a bed.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 02:41 | 1191465 Bad Lieutenant
Bad Lieutenant's picture

Not if you bought it at $10 to $15.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 05:09 | 1191605 FrankDrakman
FrankDrakman's picture

Doubt it. A mint-sealed box of Eagles is about 1.5 times the size of a standard shoe box, and that's only ~$200k. Can't see putting 5 of those in a standard file box, and that's at today's prices. If you bought earlier, you'd need at least 2-3 file boxes.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:58 | 1191205 FrankDrakman
FrankDrakman's picture

I used Diamond State Depository, in New Castle, DE. It's not Comex registered, so no worries about your bars being "borrowed". Good rates. I believe the guy in charge worked in the depositories at Wilimington State and DDSC previously.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 05:20 | 1191609 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Not neccessarily, I knew an old man in Maryland that had filled several 55 gallon drums with silver dollars and buried them on his property. I know of no thief strong enough to lift a drum of silver dollars and walk off with it.

If your silver is not in your possession you can not be certain that it's your silver. What happens if the US Gov decides they need your silver more than you do? Possession is 9/10 of the law.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 20:23 | 1190567 Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

water fills ship's holds

rats run, scurry from death's door

sharks circle below

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 20:23 | 1190568 Pedro
Pedro's picture

Man!!!  How much longer before we hit an even more serious parabolic up move in silver.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:00 | 1190665 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

It's only parabolic if you compress the x-axis.

Don't think of it as pissed off dollar dumpers per week. Think of it as pissed off dollar dumpers per day or hour.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:24 | 1190733 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

Exactly.  Money is power.  It plots on a log scale.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:41 | 1190779 Math Man
Math Man's picture

It is up 74% since the end of January, 150% in the last year and over 900% in the last ten years. Seems pretty parabolic to me.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:31 | 1190929 akak
akak's picture

..... only costs $5 to dig it from the ground .....

..... only costs $5 to dig it from the ground .....

..... only costs $5 to dig it from the ground .....

..... only costs $5 to dig it from the ground .....

..... only costs $5 to dig it from the ground .....

..... only costs $5 to dig it from the ground .....

..... only costs $5 to dig it from the ground .....

..... only costs $5 to dig it from the ground .....

..... only costs $5 to dig it from the ground .....

..... only costs $5 to dig it from the ground .....

..... only costs $5 to dig it from the ground .....

..... only costs $5 to dig it from the ground .....

..... must ...... eat ..... silverholders' ....... brains ........

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:39 | 1190956 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

++ Nice Akak

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:45 | 1190978 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

How many Wiemar Marks is an ounce of Silver worth now?

And why exactly is an FRN any different?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:09 | 1191225 Clay Hill
Clay Hill's picture

+ 14.297 Trillion

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:47 | 1190982 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Ya but it's up less than 3 percent today and it's just not moving at all right now.

So right now it's just flat as kansas.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:11 | 1191067 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

Meth, go buy your lulu yoga panties and your sina bomb and shut the fuck up.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:17 | 1191242 redpill
redpill's picture

The number of times you've been wrong in calling the top has become pretty parabolic too, so why don't you shut the fuck up already.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 20:26 | 1190569 earnulf
earnulf's picture

This is not the first time such "errors" have occured, they actually occur with frequency and the amounts vary from time to time, million oz errors are not uncommon.     Having said that, how can such 'errors' occur if they are keeping good records in the first place?      These kind of errors do get magnified as the amount of available silver as listed on the comex continues to fall from over 130 million ounces to today's levels.   Funny, that seems to have occured on the same scale that silver has gone from 8 dollars an ounce to 45.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 20:24 | 1190574 SilverDreams
SilverDreams's picture

Trust nobody with your PM holdings, if you don't have it, you don't own it.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 20:37 | 1190579 Captain Benny
Captain Benny's picture

All we need is the dollar to have a small bounce, the Fed to do something to bump it up even more, maybe another margin hike in SILV, then our friends in the banking cartel to sell tons of paper silver onto the market over the weak holiday weekend.  We'll finally have a little pullback in the silver price and a GREAT buying opportunity.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 05:24 | 1191612 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Missed the silver train, did you?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 20:30 | 1190584 Misean
Misean's picture

You ain't givin' my silver away, bitchez!

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 20:39 | 1190607 Cdad
Cdad's picture

They can't...if you simply buy SLW.  Delivery from the mines to the company...guaranteed.  In on the books at $4, and out at $45.  It is my favorite business model.  


Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:09 | 1190690 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

Bought SLW at 9, almost lost my nerve when it was at 3, now it seems to be making money, but remember it's just a stock.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:22 | 1190732 Cdad
Cdad's picture

I envy guys that actually hold the coins...and I'll be one after we next correct.  For now, this is the best vehicle I know of [PSLV premium is just stupid].  These Wheaton guys command as much silver as anyone.  The cash flow on the last quarter was unbelievable.  

It is volatile, to be sure.  That is what I like about it, actually.  Because the qrt ends and the tide goes out on such companies that have this business at 4, out at 45.  Tada...these guys have swim suits.  Today...and tomorrow morning too, maybe, are called "entry points."


Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:37 | 1191150 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

CEF is also a pretty good paper vehicle, I have a bunch and I'm not a super-high-tech metals daytrader, if you don't want a toolshed full of silver bars, but as per all paper PMs, it's only as good as the system of laws we have.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:21 | 1190730 Bob Sacamano
Bob Sacamano's picture

So why was SLW down 2.7% today?? 

Noted CEO left unexpectedly last week.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:29 | 1190746 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Why was it down?  Sellers.  Duh.  Maybe some shorts stepped in...once they could no longer sell the SLV.  Good.  Those are called entry points if you have conviction on the other side of the trade.

Why did the CEO leave...don't know?  You?


Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:26 | 1191105 Navigator
Navigator's picture

Dan Norcini says he thinks hedgies are using SLW as a pair trade: Long silver futures/ short SLW.  And they're piling in.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:23 | 1191255 Cdad
Cdad's picture

I don't know no Dan Norcini, but long silver paper, short Wheaton deliverables seems like a really dumb trade.  If they are piling in ahead of earnings, well then they apparently did not bother to assess the last qtr.  But then again, people do all sort and manner of dumb things in this dumb market.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 20:31 | 1190586 Big Ben
Big Ben's picture

I'm not exactly sure what this means. But it sort of sounds as if your bank suddenly announced that its deposits were actually 25% lower than previously announced because it had mistakenly been including cash and valuables in customer safe-deposit boxes in the total.

Not something that would inspire a lot of confidence in your bank...

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 20:50 | 1190640 unununium
unununium's picture

I can find no fault with that analogy.

Default is nigh.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 20:52 | 1190647 InconvenientCou...
InconvenientCounterParty's picture

...and thusly lacking said confidence, requesting physical delivery seems to be a prudent thing to do before everyone else gets the same idea.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 20:34 | 1190591 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Goldman Encounters of the Fourth Kind.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!