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25% Of Scotia Mocatta's Silver Transferred From "Registered" To "Eligible" Status: A 45% Reduction In "Physical"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Something interesting appeared in the daily NYMEX report of its silver warehouse stockpile data: Canada's largest bullion depository (and one of five total) reclassified a whopping 5.2 million ounces of silver from Registered to Eligible status. In order to get a sense of how big this amount is, which amounts to just under $238 million at today's fixing price, it represents just over 25% of the total silver stored at Scotia Mocatta, and about 5% of the total silver held across all depositories. The reason for this substantial shift is given as follows: "due to a reporting reclassification, 5,287,142 t oz was moved from Registered to Eligible." That's a pretty substantial reporting reclassification. Of course it could well be nothing but that, although one would imagine that a fat finger is somewhat unlikely when it comes to such a material amount. On the other hand, as those who follow the NYMEX data know too well, registered silver is actual physical Comex silver. Eligible on the other hand is sometimes called "someone else's silver" as it does not go through assays on exit/selling events. In other words, this is silver that can not be used to make delivery under a futures contract. As a result of this reclass, total registered silver dropped by 13% from 41.0 million ounces to 35.8 million. Assuming one does not have full faith in the simple error story, does this mean that deliverable silver just dropped by 13% overnight (this event occurred yesterday, but was reported as usual with a 24 hour delay)? And if so, is this effective transformation of physical to semi-paper silver indicative of what we may expect from other depositories in the next few days as the delivery notices start coming in?

Snapshot of silver holdings (link):

For those who are confused about the distinction between the two categories, SilverAxis has done a good analysis:

For those who aren’t familiar with the terminology, the registered category of COMEX warehouse bullion stocks generally refers to gold and silver bars against which COMEX warehouse receipts are outstanding. The COMEX publishes these stocks on a daily basis and they can be found here: Silver | Gold. The registered category is the total pool of gold and silver available at any time to meet delivery requirements under expiring futures contracts or to establish initial futures contract positions through a transaction called exchange-for-physicals (I’ll explain this another time). It is important to realize, however, that many parties holding COMEX gold and silver in registered form have no intention of making their holdings available for delivery. By this I mean that such parties are neither (1) holding a short futures position against the warehouse receipt nor (2) willing to sell their registered metal (warehouse receipts) to a party with a short futures position. Indeed, a substantial portion of those holding registered metal would have acquired the COMEX warehouse receipts by holding long futures positions for delivery. In other words, these registered stocks are held for investment and not for commercial purposes.

In comparison, the eligible category of COMEX warehouse bullion stocks generally refers to bullion held in the warehouses that meets the specifications of an acceptable COMEX bar (proper weight, size, purity and refiner) but does not have a COMEX warehouse receipt issued against it. For example, an investor might purchase several 1,000 oz. bars of silver from a dealer and then deliver the bars for allocated storage at a COMEX warehouse. This is a private arrangement and has nothing to do with the COMEX. Unless these bars are officially registered (the easiest way to do this is through the aforementioned exchange-for-physicals), they will remain in the eligible category until withdrawn from the warehouse by the investor. Thus, the appropriate way to treat eligible COMEX warehouse bullion stocks is that they represent metal that could potentially be registered at some point in the future but cannot presently be used to make delivery under a short futures contract.

We will follow this curious development which had not occured prior to silver entering its "parabolic" phase.

P.S. For those curious, Scotia Mocatta had a comparable "glitch" affecting its gold stocks, where 13% of its registered gold mozzied off to eligible status.

h/t DrDerivative

 

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Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:31 | 1190753 Tunga
Tunga's picture

Who was that masked man? 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:31 | 1190758 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i think scotia mocatta has been pretty up front about their businesses.  they are canadian, and they retail canadian and other bullion products.  they are a "bullion bank" and they are retail, too. 

they publish their market views just about daily and these can be found on kitco as pdf's.  also from different "market makers" so thanks, kitco!

this bank has not been able to keep one iota of silver in its inventory since way before christmas, and then some!  they were charging several dollars an ounce over spot for anything, and it was flying out, plus shipping!

their cupboard, like the US Mint's, is bare.  there's silver around, at a price.  scotia m. seems to control quite a bit of it, eh?  well, hozers, these horrid canuckz are probably covering everything on the delivery side for the near future and freeing up some stuff to work into their inventory here, ok? 

when silver was in the low 30's they were getting 35/oz for it plus shipping, and even the bars just vanished.  just cleaned out.  they get it, it's gone.  nova scotia.  whoda guessed these canadian cowboys have the wildest silver bull in the West? 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:47 | 1191184 barkster
barkster's picture

ask harvey organ - he had to hire an attorney to get his silver back from them...

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:29 | 1191264 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

not familiar w/ the case.  who is the organ guy?  some bullion bank?  a mint?  someone who needed an attorney to figure out his "account?"  someone who needs a certified financial advisor?  someone who uses turbo tax?  somebody who is an authority figure for children?  a friend of tyler's?  somebody's idea of a dream date?  a dog? 

what tf are you fuking talking about you damned little asswipe?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:36 | 1191359 New World Chaos
New World Chaos's picture

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com

Major COMEX geek; he's been talking about default since forever.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:47 | 1191375 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

veddy interestink...

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 04:00 | 1191552 newworldorder
newworldorder's picture

Since others on this site have been a source of education for me, I will try to be a source for you by pointing you toward some other metals gurus as well. Please research -

Jim Sinclair, Adrian Douglas, Ted Butler, The Aiden sisters, Ed Steer, Bill Murphy, Chris Powell. I am sure I forgot someone but that should be a good start for you.

 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:23 | 1191253 Braverdave
Braverdave's picture

I live in Canada and have some Scotia marked Swiss Valcambi gold wafers in my stash.

For all I know some of my silver came from their hoard too.

Makes me feel warm inside ;)

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 03:43 | 1191533 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

No. I live in Toronto and you can go downtown and pick up whatever bullion you want or order online.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 06:07 | 1191651 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Nova Scotia is one of the 'maritime' Canadian provinces and is located in the east. They are sailors, not cowboys.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:32 | 1190761 Cruzan Stomp Revival
Cruzan Stomp Revival's picture

Apparently, about 720 million oz in total silver comex OI traded today against 35 million oz that can be delivered. I may be interpreting this incorrectly, but it sure seems like we're seeing something along the lines of a 20-1 levered bet that folks won't take stand for delivery.

This isn't a bank that can keep a tiny fraction of its deposits in FRNs on hand, safe in the knowledge that depositors won't walk in en masse and demand their money in physical form. This is a tiny market: a footling $1.6 billion cleans out the warehouse, forces a default and sends physical silver to the moon. When we have universities taking delivery of a billion $ in PMs, it's not going to be long before someone takes a stab at cornering the silver market. I'm frankly shocked that no one has pulled it off yet. The amount of dollars it would take at this point is tantalizingly small and the upside (not to mention bragging rights) is incredible.

Jebus: what a dangerous game these outsized shorts are playing. I think only about 30% of silver production comes from primary mines. Are copper, zinc, lead and gold miners really hedging their silver byproducts? How much legitimate short hedging is going on (i.e., physical producers delivering silver at a later date)? Is it even 250 million oz?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:44 | 1190972 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

No, the banks have shorted 7 billion ounces of silver - Harvey Organ analysis of the Bank of International Settlement Report and other reports. 

They are all fucking doomed. Silver is a 50 megaton nuclear financial bomb that is ticking. Loudly. Take cover.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 08:28 | 1191803 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

322 billion fiatscis as of 4/21/11

And on an undeliverable physical lot.

Who knows what tomorrow will bring.

"My what a terrible web they've weaved..."

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:37 | 1190774 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

obviously, when people deal with scotia mocatta, they don't mind paying a few extra fiats.  this company knows silver, and people value a safe, relatively sane, source. 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:53 | 1190816 lsbumblebee
lsbumblebee's picture

"For a Few Extra Fiats". That's my favorite scabetti western.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 07:06 | 1191700 Stormdancer
Stormdancer's picture

http://www.fourwinds10.com/siterun_data/government/banking_and_taxation_...

 

An Unkind Complicatedness

 

...This exercise took 59 minutes and the best efforts of her son Aman, daughter-in-law Deepa and restaurant employee Chandan Sindhwal.

 

I should note that despite her illness and pain, Mrs. Patel, who hadn’t been out of the apartment for almost two months, was gracious, beautiful in a red-striped caftan and, but for occasional moans when the car hit a rough patch of road, remarkably uncomplaining.

 

All she wanted was to do was take delivery of the silver the bank was holding for her in the form of the certificates she’d bought decades earlier.

 

It was, or ought to have been, an uncomplicated transaction.

 

Another major financial institution, TD Bank, managed to handle the same transaction within a couple of days, and delivered the bullion to Mrs. Patel’s local branch for pickup.

 

By this Thursday, Mrs. Patel had done the following to obtain Scotiabank’s agreement to give her what is rightfully hers:...

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:40 | 1190781 zen0
zen0's picture

Canadian inflation just went up from 2.3 to 3.3 in one month.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:50 | 1190800 sudzee
sudzee's picture

Silver at 45.72. Maybe a take out of 46 by morning.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:02 | 1190848 gkm
gkm's picture

If saying 'by' you meant 'before' and saying 'morning' you meant 'midnight', then I'd say start the clock.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:05 | 1190852 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

An amazing.once in a lifetime event.

So you got a price target or are you waiting.for.teotwawki?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:52 | 1190805 CelticWarrior72
CelticWarrior72's picture

This is my first post, but I've been a lurker for a long time.  I've also been long SLV and GLD since 2007.  Naturally, I'm happy with my gains so far - 80% in GLD and 190% in SLV.  I'm planning to take off 1/3 of my SLV position at $46.60 and let the rest ride.  I'll do the same with GLD at the right time too.  Lots of you here are long and many have some nice profits.  My question to others is real simple: what's your exit strategy?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:55 | 1190815 CelticWarrior72
CelticWarrior72's picture

Sorry for the multiple posts.  Too quick with my trigger finger...

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:55 | 1190818 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

I'm sure there is no exit strategy. Very happy to be back in Canada - minerals but also fish and farming. 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:59 | 1190821 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Depends on the Federal Reserve and the USD. PMs are not a trade, they're a last stand. Get some physical while you can. Your paper profits are not backed by physical metal, read the fine print.

The Fed appears to be on a one way trip to the fiat graveyard with the USD. May it RIP. 

 

 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:10 | 1190865 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

So you dont see any other possible outcome? Just curious if you have a time frame?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:53 | 1191001 mt paul
mt paul's picture

2nd quarter reports..

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:11 | 1190869 AmazingLarry
AmazingLarry's picture

Take the hard earned fiat I've earned for the past few years that has been transfered into PM's and hold them, slowing adding on the dips (5% of net income per year) until it a) needs to be spent b) I'm old and crusty and don't need it anymore...then hand it, with great pride as I made it trought this shit quagmire, to those that will benefit from said labor; my children, benefactors, a just cause, etc.  

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:52 | 1190995 dalkrin
dalkrin's picture

Best exit strategy is to exit paper, fiat notes as well as stock certificates, and acquire some infallible bullion to tide you over through the storm.  Keep some ETF's around if you like, but the consensus is that the underlying physical just may not be fully there.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:07 | 1191007 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Interesting that you see PMs as a trade rather than a strategy.   I look back at even the generic silver rounds I've sold by the hundreds on eBay and wishing that I had them all back.  Of course, I rolled the money into silver eagles, but still there was some monetary slack in making the rollover.

You might want to develop an overall strategy based on the basic purpose of having PMs, rather than seeing the whole shebang as a trade.    Looking at this roll (20) of silver eagles that I paid $130 for and wishing that I'd ordered 10 more at the time...

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:13 | 1191065 akak
akak's picture

For anyone who wanted to know what my "exit strategy" is in regard to silver, I would reply that it will likely follow on the heels of the world's exit strategy from the US dollar.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:17 | 1191243 CelticWarrior72
CelticWarrior72's picture

My strategy is to hold a fully diversified portfolio i.e. a slice of everything everywhere.  That includes stocks (US, global, emerging, frontier), bonds (TIPS, US, junk, global, etc.), real estate, currencies and PM's.  As such my PM allocation is a trade that I prefer to enter (and exit) at the right price.  I like to get in early and get out before the bubbles pop.  From my perspective, silver is getting very frothy.  It's time to take some off the table and let the rest ride.  I'm beginning to think that platinum is looking cheap (relative to silver and gold that is).

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:45 | 1191373 Threeggg
Threeggg's picture

Getting frothy against what >??????????

The Dollar ??????????????

You are fucking kidding right ?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 02:01 | 1191392 New World Chaos
New World Chaos's picture

Noah's Ark investing is for suckers.  Most of those investments will ultimately be food for the Beast.  You gotta know what kind of scams the NWO is up to, or what the Fed's exit strategy is.  Hint:  There isn't one.  They crossed the event horizon with QEII, when they printed money to buy bonds and bond prices went DOWN.  PM's are real money that is very hard for the elites to steal.  As more people realize that, PMs will become more valuable.  That's all you need to know.

I'm 55% silver, 20% gold, 20% home equity, and bits of cash, JPM puts, palladium, and silver miners.  Don't have platinum because I think peak oil, catalytic substitutes, and general chaos will ruin platinum's main market (new cars).  I will sell my other PMs when the whole world is in flames.

When I think diversification, I think multiple stash places.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 03:56 | 1191548 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

It is an interesting question though. If you have a currency that is appreciating against the USD where do you allocate and how ? I don't think the PM trade is frothy yet so that is a no brainer.  Aside from that - not sure. 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:33 | 1191107 Rocket-Man
Rocket-Man's picture

My 2nd or 3rd post.

I only got in on PM in January but what a nice ride so far.  I quit buying when spot was at 35 and I thought that was high.  Was I wrong.

 

My son who has a strong tech business that generates lots of spare bucks finally picked up his first 400 to 500 oz yesterday and today as a hedge for some of his excess cash.   I think we are not close to the end of this yet.  There are many people with cash or convertible assets that have no physical hedge and they are waking up with moves in the news like the U of T Gold investment.   I took an oz. each of silver and gold today to work.  I passed the Silver Eagle around at a couple of meetings.  I passed the Gold Eagle around in some smaller settings. Highly educated folks with technical degrees that are news and web savvy. Still more than half were shocked by the metals' prices.

If you got into the PM in single digits you may be thinking strongly of a "profit" exit.  There are still many more out there to come into PM's as a hedge...which perhaps is the reason many got in and now have realized large potential fiat profits.... and is perhaps the reason many people will stay longer, i.e. their PM long hedge.

I hope to exit at some TBD future date to property.  

 

There is an old silver mine for sale only 8 miles from my house :)

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 06:18 | 1191665 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Profit exit into what? Any 'profit exit' you make that leaves with a dollar denominated asset is a loser. I believe you need to rethink your reasons for purchasing physical PMs.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 21:45 | 1194981 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

If you got into the PM in single digits you may be thinking strongly of a "profit" exit.

I did, and I'm not.   The "price" has nothing to do with anything.  If profit were the object I would only be in any position for a 10% bump.  Therefore, my last purchase would have been in the $38 to $40 area.   Not so.  I still have the Silver Eagles I paid $6.50 for with no intent to "exit for profit".   If I exit, it will be for goods that I need, not any form of fiat currency.

But, thanks for playing.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:00 | 1190824 bothsidesnow
bothsidesnow's picture

Closing in on $46 should be there in the next hour. Thnx Tyler. Nadler says nothing between here and the round figure at 50.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:08 | 1190861 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

nadler said that?  its hard to believe.  i guess he has run out of excuses this time around.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:31 | 1190928 bothsidesnow
bothsidesnow's picture

He said it in his commentary on Kitco

http://www.kitco.com/ind/nadler/apr202011.html

I never thought I would see the day to see this fucking house of cards fall. I knew from about 5 years old what bullshit the US is. I lived through some terrible events as a child. Witnessed Bobby go down in real time. Finally these fucktards are going down.`

Tomorrow I put on my Keith Jarret t-shirt.

The revolution will not be televised.

 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:14 | 1191239 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

slewie likes keith j's belt buckle. 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:08 | 1191310 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

Keith Jarrett -

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYO-V25yXj0&feature=related

Started listening as a teen - awesome talent.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:52 | 1191196 barkster
barkster's picture

nadler's bullish? sheeet, maybe i should lighten up...

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:06 | 1190854 AmazingLarry
AmazingLarry's picture

I'm happy to support any "bubble" as long as when it "pops" it takes out Meth Lady and his faggy Ferrari. Been taking screen shots of his enlighting commentary lately. 

$45.80 bitchz. POP! $20. Just like that. :killmenow:

 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:07 | 1190856 optimator
optimator's picture

My father collected silver coins starting in the 50's, bags of them.  I was in my pre teens and never asked why, just thought he wanted to collect coins.  He once collected a $500 debt in various silver dollars.  When he passed away I simply hid them away, too lazy to do anything other.

Now, the reason for this post is that when my Dad was born at the turn of the century and lived through the Weimar inflation.  After reading all todays posts I decided to do a little research on silver coins in Weimar Germany.  If anyone can add some facts I'd find it interesting.  My Dad was worried about inflation to the last days of his life at 95.

http://goldismoney2.com/showthread.php?14550-How-Investments-Fared-in-Weimar-Germany

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:23 | 1190879 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:01 | 1191211 barkster
barkster's picture

great link...

 

Those who held funds in dollars, pounds or other stable currencies, or in gold,saved their capital. The government set up rigid exchange controls as the inflation proceeded. As usual under such conditions, a black market flourished. The ones who fared best were the small minority who had the foresight to exchange marks into foreign money or gold very early, before new laws made this difficult and before the mark lost too much value.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:12 | 1191231 barkster
barkster's picture

...

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:09 | 1190859 Blooter
Blooter's picture

Simpleton question:

What do numbers like $50 and the like matter when the Asians are buying silver? Is the psychological impact $50 has on people even noticeable?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:25 | 1190904 gwar5
gwar5's picture

CEO of SLW said he might start thinking of hedging silver when it got priced around $50 and, along the way, others might too. Suppose that would be a drag on silver, but as long as the DXY continues to fall and Europe starts defaulting, it won't matter. Industrial demand and Chinese buying create a nice floor.

The 1980 inflation adjusted high for silver is $140/oz and things are in worse shape now. That's pretty much it in a nut shell.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:23 | 1190874 Man Bear Pig
Man Bear Pig's picture

.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:18 | 1190877 Man Bear Pig
Man Bear Pig's picture

.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:14 | 1190878 Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

We are approaching Event Horizon. I am long silver but this is almost scaring me.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:23 | 1190893 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

It should.   The last two weeks are showing that some very big sharks are slipping into the little market capitalized pool called silver. 

Fundamentals are still there, but this looks like approaching the edge of a state change.   Kinda like water in a bad pressure cooker at 211 degrees is just hot.  At 213 it explodes.

 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:17 | 1190883 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

I wonder if the empty vaults in Fort Knox have stacks of IOUs from GS or JPM? 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:20 | 1191335 Dr. Eldon Tyrell
Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:23 | 1190898 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Looks like the DXY (US Dollar Index) will be 73 in the next couple of hours. Hey boys and girls, can you say Zimbabwe?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:32 | 1190922 gwar5
gwar5's picture

James "It-will-shock-the-world" Turk has been saying for 2 months the last support for the USD is at 71 and after that it's a waterfall event, and the USD will collapse, and "It will shock the world!"

And I'm not laughing because he called $30 silver and the other benchmarks along the way with precision.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:42 | 1190957 chump666
chump666's picture

China won't let the USD sink, you have to understand, if the USD collpases into the mid 60...100% China will sell UST's and draw a line under the USD.

If oil goes to 120+ China crack up boom will be a crack down bust, like a F****** nuclear bomb going off.

Might happen anyway

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:22 | 1191252 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

$USO and $SLV the same $44.25 $$

 

 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 02:02 | 1191397 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

Usually not up this late or this early (depending on time frame) but DXY is now $73.91 - fail

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:31 | 1190921 chump666
chump666's picture

metals are all parabolic today, the AUD is ridicules with 60+% shorts now being set.  So 2008

USD is extremely oversold...

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:30 | 1190923 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Replying to exit strategy and price targets:

I have had small positions for years but only really went heavy into the metal at $21 spot.  Initially, it was because currency devaluation is a given so . . .gold and silver duh.  But this deval is different, and before I get out completely, I want to know there is some hope for US finances.

Sell whateverr you need to sleep, live, whatever.  But this story continues.  You dont want to miss the potential price move if delivery failure event and a lot of smart people are saying it's not just possible, but likely.

After that re-assess.  A person I respect in this area sees a pullback to 28-30 soon and then up to 100.  Another doesnt see the pullback that drastically and then to 100.  They both see it going there.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:40 | 1190959 Bron Suchecki
Bron Suchecki's picture

Tyler: "Eligible on the other hand is sometimes called "someone else's silver" as it does not go through assays on exit/selling events. In other words, this is silver that can not be used to make delivery under a futures contract.

 

Huh, that is in contradiction to your own quote from SilverAxis: “eligible category of COMEX warehouse bullion stocks generally refers to bullion held in the warehouses that meets the specifications of an acceptable COMEX bar (proper weight, size, purity and refiner) but does not have a COMEX warehouse receipt issued against it”

 

See also http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/04/silver-eligible-versus-registered-and.html

 

 

 

 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:44 | 1190994 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

You have crooks in charge of the henhouse. That's what Tyler was referring to. Who knows how many times the dealers have already dipped into the customer accounts to grab silver for someone else's delivery. Are they allowed to ? No.   

And since there are no independant audits permitted, who knows what they really do over there. 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:50 | 1190986 JimBobOMG
JimBobOMG's picture

I see a BIG difference between what's registered and commercial/non-commercial contracts. There's certainly no shortage of contracts...

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:50 | 1190987 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

What's happening is big. Real big. I encourage the doubters to doubt. It's amusing. 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:15 | 1191076 Hulk
Hulk's picture

It is truly amusing now...

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:53 | 1190992 mt paul
mt paul's picture

thirty thousand ounces 

give or take a few 

banded on a pallet..

 

rent a fork lift 

bytches

 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:54 | 1191004 vincent
vincent's picture

I'm not ashamed to say that I let loose of 25% of AG at 43. Took a nice payday without getting greedy.  I'm missing out a bit, but no top calling for me. I must say I'm sleeping better too.

Very heavy AG vs. fiat, and wanted plenty of dry powder just in case.

Not flush, but have all of the essentials, some hard assets to unload, and a couple of gardens.

I feel a correction is  in the cards too.  Some say 42, others 40. I don't discount 32.

Either way I'll benefit. For my situation, I consider it a good hedge.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:02 | 1191024 Dr. Gonzo
Dr. Gonzo's picture

I sold half of my big chunk of PSLV at close today. I'm feeling dumb but it's been going up every single day for so long. Will never sell my physical. The big winners will be the ones who don't get greedy or cute and just keep holding. They'll be all in during the sweet spot parobolic moves. 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:55 | 1191010 Kassandra
Kassandra's picture


On IE9...have no idea if this will work. When everything went to hell in the 30's gold was confiscated by the gov. Could this happen again..and with silver?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 02:36 | 1191458 New World Chaos
New World Chaos's picture

I think there was only one confiscation court case from the 30s.  The vast majority of metal went into little hidey holes all accross the land.  No way they will get all that.  They could get yours if they waterboard you as an economic terrorist, but they can't do that to everyone and therefore your metal will probably be safe until a new, more honest regime is established. 

I think confiscation will be more thorough this time and you can kiss your ETFs and safe deposit boxes goodbye.  But even these assholes aren't stupid enough to try door-to-door metal confiscation in, say, Texas.  Though I would like to see them try.  That would be hilarious.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 14:47 | 1193329 akak
akak's picture

But even these assholes aren't stupid enough to try door-to-door metal confiscation in, say, Texas.  Though I would like to see them try.

Yet I have to acknowledge that they already do "door to door" searches and confiscations in another context today, and have done so for years:  illegal drugs.  No, of course they don't go to EVERY door, or even a sizable fraction of them, but use investigation and probable cause to find the locations most likely to be hiding such things.  Is this not a model for future targeted and selective raids on PM owners and other "financial terrorists"?

Something unsettling to think about.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:58 | 1191011 zen0
zen0's picture

tick tick tick bitchez

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:58 | 1191013 cpnscarlet
cpnscarlet's picture

Quick story - my entry into silver...

A few weeks before the Hunt top (my late teen years), my Italian-immigrant grandpa asked me to come over to his house. There, he took a bag out of a pantry closet and pulled out a Franklin half. He handed it to me and told me to go to the Gold and Diamond Exchange at the Empire State Bldg and see how much they were paying. I made the trip...and his response was "No, not yet". He died many years ago and that bag came to me. Even today, I still say "No, not yet".

God Bless My Grandpa, and may God have mercy on us all.

 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:30 | 1191123 Kassandra
Kassandra's picture


I received similar two years ago. Amen.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:01 | 1191019 gall batter
gall batter's picture

scotia mocatta

hakuna matata:  no worries for the rest of your days.  problem free philosophy.  or something like that.  

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:08 | 1191321 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

yes.  the mantra has taught you well...  scotia mocatta, gall batter...

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:59 | 1191022 franzpick
franzpick's picture

We're approaching ZH T-shirt territory here:        $50 Ag

                                                                          I Was There

Wear among friends only.

 

 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:08 | 1191059 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Huge PLUS

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:02 | 1191023 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I opened a large JPM short position today.

It's the largest position I've held since 2006 and my 2nd largest position ever.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:18 | 1191085 d00daa
d00daa's picture

I understand the whole "buy silver, crush the Morgue" thing.  Still pretty bold, I would be looking for a violation of 43.50 first.

What's your target?  Stop?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:32 | 1191137 55 men
55 men's picture

I also see us dropping a bit, but just for short time and then on our way to 50. I think your estimate of 43.50 is right on.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:39 | 1191154 d00daa
d00daa's picture

Sorry, 43.50 was in reference to JPM support level.  OP is short JPM.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 08:36 | 1191824 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Sorry for the delay in getting back d00daa

It's an aggressive trade, as it's sort of an all or nothing trade, but one which I've mentally prepared for and the kind I only do on  systemic shock incident. I figure that if JPM is really levered in short silver position as many honestly believe, and if there's now an aggregate near 400 billion short position by banks, JPM basically has little support at all, until TBTB have to step in and do a huge rescue, which they can't do until they admit that everything they've proclaimed for the last 22 months is a total fabrication.

-14 / +8

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:18 | 1191091 akak
akak's picture

With silver taking the express elevator up, I'm about ready to crap in my shorts.

I don't think there's much money in it for me, though.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:07 | 1191040 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Hey Obama, Geither, Bernanke, Reid, Pelosi, Boehner, Cantor - time might be up bitches. We need a new dollar. What are you waiting for? The rebellion to form and reach DC ?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:17 | 1191081 lakeweb
lakeweb's picture

Hi,

First post. I pulled the trigger and dumped 20% of our silver today. I'm already a dollar wrong. But it pays off the mortgage, and then some, so now we are really debt free. I'm an old guy and know I can't take it with me and figured I should do it before the long weekend as my target came sooner than I ever thought just a month or two ago.

So I thought I'd play a spread on the July SLV, out of the money on both sides by some $5. After all, there is no way in hell, not that it can happen, that silver will flat line at $45 for the next several months. Seems like a no brainer to me but that I didn't get into the options a few days earlier. I haven't played the market for more than a decade with real money. So... ?

Best, Dan.

(Why the stupid paper bag in preview? I uploaded an avatar.)

 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:09 | 1191323 mark mchugh
mark mchugh's picture

Congratulations Dan, you're a free man (well, except for the fact that our government will continue to saddle you with debt...).

I've been entertaining spreads too - something's gonna happen here, but I hate giving my broker any business these days.

Obviously, you're not playing with food money, so have fun.

Good luck.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 02:27 | 1191448 lakeweb
lakeweb's picture

Thanks Mark,

Tomorrow I play, or I don't. 'They' only get on income, my wife and her cpa try to keep it at a minimum as much as we are stuck with it. We seem to have a decent write off on this sell or I may have thought twice.

We are selling this property and moving among the family this summer. Yet another incident that made this move so easy. If I have to carry own with a no brainer contract, so what?

That I get to live, learn, do, with the kids.. Every thing for me.

I think I'll have a lot of fun before I die!

Best, Dan.

 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:15 | 1191082 CalibratedConfidence
CalibratedConfidence's picture

Dammit!  you beat me to it.  I was going to post this to my blog.  I'll just link it to your site. 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:15 | 1191326 mark mchugh
mark mchugh's picture

I know.  I barely had time to look at the spreadsheet, and BAM, it's already here.

Tyler don't sleep.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:32 | 1191353 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

I know! Need some sleep but everytime you look away shit happens - DXY at 74.01?

Edit: 73.98 and dropping.

 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:20 | 1191094 franzpick
franzpick's picture

Kind of like this from Jack Mullen on $50 Ag:  paragraphs 3,5,7 and 9:

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1303153473.php

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:24 | 1191112 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

i don't give two fucks of a penguin's ass what the paper price of gold and silver say, both currencies are in severe and permanent backwardation....the fiat currencies are in disarray and incinerating before our eyes....

the great hyperinflation is upon us.....silver sings inflation; gold witnesses to the death of the fiat regime....

where oh where are the fucktards who said that gold would never reach 1500usd and ridiculed with levity the very notion.....you were wrong - very wrong....

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:25 | 1191113 tdogg
tdogg's picture

heard Bernake was singing nobody's fault but mine from his shower today

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMKzTJeXQ7o&feature=related

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:26 | 1191117 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

OT, but too good not to share:

London is no longer an English city, says John Cleese. Is he right? http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/edwest/100084274/london-is-no-longer-an-english-city-says-john-cleese-is-he-right/
Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:29 | 1191127 Pheesh
Pheesh's picture

Personally i'd store it until I can cash it out for a house :)

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:36 | 1191136 honestann
honestann's picture

#####  LAST CHANCE  #####

If you think you have unallocated or allocated physical gold or silver stored in some vault somewhere (except your own), this week is likely your last chance to get your physical metal... though it may already be too late in many cases.

Exceptions: Sprott physical silver and gold funds are probably safe for the time being, and perth mint may be semi-safe for a while longer.

Otherwise, call whoever has your gold or silver and demand they send it to you immediately.  Buy yourself a vault if necessary, but get your freaking metal into your own paws.  Otherwise, you will almost certainly never get it at all.  Only about 1% as much physical gold and silver is being held as is stated or implied.  Get it now, or get it never.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:42 | 1191165 alfred b.
alfred b.'s picture

 

   ...so who thinks the dyi and ag have a date @ 68  ???

              ....and I don't expect an answer from moth man on this one !

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:44 | 1191179 trav7777
trav7777's picture

COMEX isn't the counterparty; they just arrange the transactions.  They are an exchange.  COMEX doesn't need to have any real metals, as their job is to match a seller and buyer.  Find out who is on the other side of the short positions at COMEX if you want to follow the trail.

There is more OI than silver, meaning a lot of these will be cash-settled, which is the primary function of a commodities exchange.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:55 | 1191204 alfred b.
alfred b.'s picture

 

   ....so why call them Comex,  why not call them a broker like JPmorgan or Goldman Sachs; why then does the comex need reg'd vaults; and does this also include the LME ???

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:35 | 1191356 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

(psst: the "ex" in "Comex" stands for "exchange.")

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:14 | 1191237 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

You can't be serious.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:26 | 1191215 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

Meth Man, watch this blow the lid off silver. Between China inflating there yuan by 10% and this link below, shit is about to hit the fan.

USO and SLV the trading near the same today $44.25.  

 

 

 

China's Sinopec cuts off oil exports: state media

 

http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/Chinas_Sinopec_cuts_off_oil_exports_state_media_999.html

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:14 | 1191230 RexZeedog
RexZeedog's picture

A little over a year ago, I bought 100 Silver Eagles from a well-regarded eBay seller for just over $20 each after a promotional rebate from bing.com/ebay.

At the time, I could have easily afforded to buy 1,000 coins.

Those of you on the sidelines waiting for a better entry might asked yourself what you'll do it it doubles again...?

I've at least got 100, but many have zero.

It's not too late...

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:32 | 1191268 Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

Maybe now it is Eric Sprott's silver?

 

www.Gold-Silver.us/forum

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:07 | 1191315 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

45.81 0100 EST

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:21 | 1191334 mark mchugh
mark mchugh's picture

My best guess is that this "reclassification" was actually a private sale between House and Customer.

The Daily report shows only two contracts for delivery.  That was an awful lot of price action for 10 thousand ounce bars.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:48 | 1191377 SumSUN
SumSUN's picture

FOURTY SIX.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:48 | 1191379 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

46.07     1/10 away from 5% in 12 hours

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:49 | 1191380 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

DXY 73.93

 

SLV 46.03

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:50 | 1191384 bluebare
bluebare's picture

Sold SLW at 39.75 two months ago.  It's back to within two bucks of that today. 

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SLW+Interactive#symbol=SLW;range=3m

I know, I know, paper...shit...off topic.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:59 | 1191394 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

UNP flash crashed today.  Pretty interesting, considering rail will be the future of transport.  I guess someone (or rather some algo) wanted to get in the boat really badly.  And who says there is no volatility.  Leo?  Leo?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 05:41 | 1191627 alus
alus's picture

There's another issue regarding the case for oppenning new mine ;) As you probably know (or maybe not) the mining process is very harmfull for wild live - it's very dirty technology based on Hg (forbidden in Europe for example), and the terrain is then out of live for 100 years or more.... Ecology guys won't be happy with that.

Of course, with the raising prices, the new projects will be settled, but the problem is - oppenning new mine would took 7-10 years, and old ores are getting exchaused. If you noticed - fresnillo commented 2 weeks ago, that their silver production dropped by few percent - because old ore wasn't so rich they thought... Actually used ores are getting low year by year, and newly discovered are not so big as should be.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 06:08 | 1191654 student for life
student for life's picture

I was living in Florida but currently living in India. I buy gold and silver from local goldsmith (Soni). He started following my moves and had made some money and ask me weather to buy or sell. So i want to thank most of you for making me look so smart. Thought i pass the info, the goldsmith say he now has housewifes coming to his shop to buy physical silver with whatever little they have saved. They do not know the techs or fondos all they see is the price is going up. I also trade futures and the broker asks me what action his other clients should take when the price had a big drop or a client stuck in a short position. I am a pharmacist by traning and people are asking me for advise in the silver market ( Physical and futures no stocks ). What do you guys make of this? By the why people trading silver futures have no clue on either the techs or fundos, the buy and sell to make some quick profit atleat at the office i use.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 19:22 | 1330749 camoes
camoes's picture

I'm gonna go short ZSL, if the paper is backed by silver or not I win and get a premium for the decaying component of levered ETFs

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