47% More Pain For NY Real Estate?

Interesting report out of Deutsche Bank over the weekend, presenting hypothetical upcoming current-to-trough declines in real estate prices, based on DB's proprietary Home Price Appreciation (HPA) model outlook for the top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). While the full report should be read in its entirety, a good summary is the chart below which demonstrates (in the right most column) the worst-case modelled downside to home prices in the 20 worst U.S. MSAs.

The top 5 MSAs where the pain will be most acute? (no real surprise there):

1. New York-White Plains-Wayne
2. West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach
3. Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall
4. Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach
5. Long Island Nassau-Suffolk

In summary: be very weary of snake oil salesmen telling you home prices have bottomed...

Comments

[Anonymous (not verified)]

SF Bay Area has a long way to go.
We went from mid 200K to mid 700K
in 10 years.
So expect prices to go back to long term trends... med at 300Ks.
near 3-4x incomes and inline with inflation trend

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