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5-min VIX Charts -- Intra-day Bottom & Close
Fibozachi ~ Technician's Corner
5-min VIX Charts ~ Intra-day Bottom & Close
VIX intra-day bottom
VIX Close
After much adieu, we at Fibozachi will resume publishing our FTU's 2-3 times a week alongside True Trading Tips. Over the past few weeks, we have been hard at work (1) finalizing the design development of several new technical trading indicators, (2) updating our website to provide 8-day free trials and (3), finally, releasing our Elite Oscillator™ to retail traders / boutique firms.
Encase you missed it: in the 1.27.10 edition of the Fibozachi Technical Update (FTU), we presented 15 technical profiles of the:
S&P 500 Futures (ES);
VIX (CBOE Volatility Index);
NYSE VOLD;
NYSE TICK;
US Dollar Index (DXY);
Crude Oil Futures (CL);
Gold Futures (GC);
Silver Futures (SI).
Disclosure: during any given session, we may trade any of these instruments bi-directionally. We are currently flat at the time of publication ... looking forward to a much needed day off.
For similar technical market calls and insights into the idiosyncratic machinations of financial markets; please visit our website ~ fibozachi.com. There, you can view a body of our analytic work as well as detailed explanations of the unique design development and technical methodologies within the proprietary technical indicator packages that we employ daily to perform a comprehensive technical analysis of financial instruments (stocks, options, ETFs, bonds, futures, FOREX, etc.) across interval periods of time, tick and volume.
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1/31/10
Make or Break time:
Below 1114.25 moved the handle to open the correction door
Below 1099.00 opens the CORRECTION door.
Below 1088.50 to 1084.50 places one foot in the correction room
Below 1069.25 puts both foot in the correction room
Below 1066.50 opens the trend reversal door
Below 1050.50 is a confirmation that this is a correction
There is a vast difference between a correction and a trend reversal
A correction takes us down to 920.75 to 952.00, and then we head back up to new highs (1268.00 to 1295.00)
A trend reversal means 1148.00 is the high for a long time 17 to 43 months
In addition it means we make a new low (below 665.75) down to 558.50 to 470.00 in fact down to 330.00.
The below pattern is our dominant pattern for time, price and range.
Long Term: 458 to 687 trading days
Today is the 324th day
Master RCT
From: 10/16/2008
Equalizer: 952.00
Up Price Target: 1295.50 (we reached 1148.00)
Up Extension: Up to 1352.75
Down Price Target: 608.50 (we reached 665.75)
Down Extension: Down to 558.50
Upper Wall: 1066.50
Lower Wall: 865.50
From the low at 665.75 up to the lower wall at 865.50
The time duration of the move was 116 days
From the low at 665.75 up to the upper wall at 1066.50 took 232 days
From the upper wall at 1066.50 up to 1148.00 took 78 days
From 1148.00 back down to the lower wall at 1066.50 took 13 days
Therefore on this sharp decline we have a factor of 6 (78divided by 13 = 6)
From the lower wall at 865.50 up to the equalizer at 952.00 took 43 days
From 1066.50 down to 952.00 should either take 7 or 28 or 43 days.
From 1066.50 down to 865.50 should take 116 days
Therefore 1066.50 (upper wall) is as crucial as crucial gets in the market place
We have a 6.00 factor, which means a 6.00pt. Lenience factor which is 1060.50
And a 13 day lenience time factor.
Immediate term: NOW
We have three patterns
But before we discuss these patterns
We must look at this
We spent 181 hours up in the 1140ish level before we broke out (down) from the pattern. On our current pattern we spent 112 hours before the break out which is 62% a key Fib. number. In addition the transition move (down from the top to our past congestion level was 42 hours which 38% another key Fib. number.
Why is this important?
It validates the structural developmental of the decline from 1148.00 to now.
The first pattern is the nucleus of the compression from our new price level following the decline from 1139.25 which means it is the catalyst for all current motion.
RCT
Pointing Down
Equalizer: 1090.50
Down Price Target: 1062.00
Down Extension: Down to 1058.50
Up Price Target: 1119.00
This below pattern is also significant because it developed a RCT. C/T’s that develop a RCT are dangerous, because they have reversal properties.
C/T
Pointing Down
Equalizer: 1087.50
Down Price Target: 1060.75
Up Price Target: 1114.00
RCT (this pattern was created by the above C/T)
Pointing Down
Equalizer: 1091.00
Down Price Target: 1053.50
Up Price Target: 1128.50
In order for this current decline to continue we must reach 1060.75, otherwise we reverse back up to 1114.00 before you can sing Dixie.
Short Term: (from 10/20/09)
The below pattern is our also a key pattern.
It confirms the correction and opens the door for a trend reversal
That key pivotal price is 1050.50
RCT (from 10/20/09)
Time expectation: 86 days from 10/20/09, today is the 70th day.
Neutral
Equalizer: 1050.50
Up Price Target: 1180.25
Down Price Target: 920.75
Down Extension: Down to 866.50
Upper Wall: 1093.75
Lower Wall: 1007.25
What bothers me the most concerning this decline is the high number of argent bulls that switched sides so quickly. I don’t have problems with switching sides, but I have problem with how quickly they switched, generally this is reflective of a subjective opinion as opposed to objective.
From 1066.50 up to 1148.00 took 78 days
From 1148.00 back down to 1066.50 took 13 days
Generally this is how trend reversals behave.
Due to the Long Term Master RCT’s ranger count 229 points
We have a dominant 86 to 88 point price range swing pattern
5 swings since 7/8/09
12 swings since the Master RCT was formed on 10/16/2008
Since March 09; the last and largest decline was on 7/8/09 to 6/5/09
Which was 87.75 points and took 22 days.
1148.00 - 86.00 = 1062.00
1148.00 – 87.75 = 1060.25
Recent massive redemptions from US equity funds of $8.3bn, is the largest outflow since 23rd July 08 = retail capitulating out of US equities
Regarding the chart:
The dashed red line is a TIME trendline
It’s a key line from the middle time point from the above formation connected to our current middle time point. Time trendlines determines market timing..
masterchetrading@gmail.com
we should all be off skiing.
Thanks Chop. Even the 5.7% 4Q GDP number wasn't enough to stave off the decline, and when the dust settled the shorts were the only ones in the black - something that will probably hold true going forward.
Jesse Livermore, anyone?
the headline # means shit. like it falls from the f'ing sky and somehow 'changes things. ugh.
check out GSCO strat's excellent summary from TD earlier today...
Weekly Chartology And Prophetology... print it out, mark it up and then see what new ish is breaking on the main ZH splash while turdberg and their MSM like update their 'news story 202' "news stories" for the 4th time (where's charlie gasparino when you need him and why hasn't someone made a gasparino mad-money soundboard yet?. n since its saturday night: bring back radio ZH Marla & Jana !! pretty please.
there is no bull / bear side but only the right side.
JL never hesitated to tell a man that he was bullish / bearish in general ... but he would not tell people to buy or sell any particular stock for in a bear mkt all stocks go down and in a bull mkt they go up.
it was also bc the avg man doesn't wanna be told that its a bull / bear mkt ... he / she just wants to be told, specifically, which sticker symbol, then not even stick around long enough to hear a perfunctory 'reason.' the joe da plumbers & sara pale eyes of the world want to get something for nothing and in search of ephemeral alpha don't wanna work, let alone put in the work required. hell, those sheeple don't even wanna think.
The market doesn't beat em, they beat themselves bc though they have brains they cannot sit tight ... and don't have the foggiest idea of what Myst-like contraption their own brain be.
and for a fifth JL gem, i'll pay respect like he always did in the jpm vault:
"Encase" ????????
f me. good catch. i missed it.
Equity indexes downtrend continues.
UPDATES:
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0
BAC has 2796 institutional shareholders.
looks like shameless promotion lol
85% lose in day trading . and watching the pot to boil.
more like 97% w/in a year & 99.7% w/in 3 years.
"Everything is easy baby, leave it up to [TA] baby.
Put it in the pot let it steam let it brew,
Now watch [it] melt, don't burn yourself, cuz ...."
Fib's skiing for the weekend, so I be running a bit shorthanded.
Nothing fancy / complex above, just an easy bottom signal.
Will look at the banks & brokers and see if i can't get a few purty pics up before he's back monday night.
BAC?!? You really thought your money was still there? Actually, come to think of it, that's not that funny 'cause BAC is my bank as well. So what's up with BAC???
Shame on you. You should have your Federal Reserve Negotiable Private Bank Debt Instruments placed digitally into a credit union or community bank.
Thanks but no thanks for continuing to feed the monster. BAC as of now, still has an additional 10x your deposits from which to screw me, my family, and my community. How difficult a civic action is it for one to tear his capital out from the tentacles of the vampire squid? Is it that much of a burden?
I didn't know BAC was referred to as the 'vampire squid'.
What is going on with the Bank of America website? Severe interuptions to online banking!
sweet
Straightforward for a change. Nice charts.