With $5 Trillion In US And European Funding Needs Over The Next 3 Years, How Long Until The Global Monetization Tsunami Hits (Again)?

Tyler Durden's picture

While we have presented the below charts in the past in some form or another on various occasions, since everyone's memory is at most 1 trading day strong these days, we are happy to recycle content while continuing to "surprise" our readers. Below, we present the chart showing European maturities over the next three years. It should be sufficient to convince anyone that while the US needs ongoing QE to not only to keep stocks rising past May/June (Fed's 3rd and only mandate) but to monetize trillions in gross debt issuance (without rates needing to surge to make up for demand shortfall as Bill Gross pointed out so well on Wednesday), Europe is in an even worse predicament. Among the Eurozone's banks, there is roughly $2.4 trillion in funding requirements until 2014. And as our disclosure yesterday on the massive Irish capital shortfall notes, nobody has yet answered the question where all this funding will come from, short of the ECB pulling a Fed, and starting to monetize everything from the bottom of the capital structure upward in the primary markets instead of only through secondary market interventions. Keep in mind this excludes actual sovereign funding needs. Which is not to say the US is immune from the same problem. It isn't. But looking at the problem globally confirms everyone's greatest nightmare: where, in the absence of ongoing central bank monetizations (with or without the assistance of major financial black holes like Europe's EFSF), will the world be able to find buyers for roughly $4-5 trillion in debt to keep the self-funded Ponzi going?

European bank funding needs 2011-2014:

And Sovereign debt redemption schedule:

Source: Morgan Stanley

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mynhair's picture

Portugal on the 27th?  Or the 24th?  Been over a day, and I fergot....

NotApplicable's picture

Eventually there will be a QE that attempts to stuff it all into the long-end of the curve. It's too early yet, as it is still seen as too drastic a measure, but eventually, the inevitability of it all will normalize the experience, much like the rape of the short-end is old news today.

Otherwise all this heavy lifting is simply going to exhaust them.

plocequ1's picture

Dont look at me, Im just a Taxpayer

10kby2k's picture

Start learning Chinese.

Ray1968's picture

I'm going to learn Icelandic ... or whatever they speak there. The women are WAY hotter.

Shell Game's picture

Pardon the off topic question, but there used to be a ZH search box to find old content.  Is it my browser, or has it gone Dodo?

NotApplicable's picture

I dunno, but google always pays attention to ZH.

Shell Game's picture

Thanks, N.A., that's what I'm using now.  Just wondering if it moved or if there's a story there I missed...

mynhair's picture

Looks like it went Dodo.  Total bummer.  Search terms under article titles are operative, though.

SwingForce's picture

Its on the main page, not after you click a story. One of the better search engines too.

Maybe not I can't find it either. It must come and go.

longshortflat's picture

Yes I agree vehemently .... I can't find it ... in ANY OF 4 browsers .... please advise if you find it.

CrazyCooter's picture

When you search at google, and you know you want something from ZH, do it like this:

 

"site:zerohedge.com blah blah"

 

This will only return results from the site indicated. Spell carefully and if you add the www. in front it will be required to return in the results, so leave it off unless you know you want it.

 

Cooter

gwar5's picture

Will they be able to find buyers? Sure.

They're all jerks sitting in a circle and will do what comes naturally after that. 

bugs_'s picture

Monetezuma's Revenge.

slewie the pi-rat's picture

as long as the nice, polite, well-dressed people at the bankS keep helping us with loans, what's the problem?

Rainman's picture

I say bring on the Worldwide 100 year bond. Stuff all the shit in there. If the boyz can sell a NINJA landscaper's mortgage paper to millions of investors, surely they could handle a job like this.

RoRoTrader's picture

I always liked your 'stuff', and you are probably onto to something with 100s. From what I read you are not alone with that thought.

Misean's picture

Perhaps a fund raising co-ed car wash?

mynhair's picture

'Fund' raising with lithe co-eds?  That's a new take.

Misean's picture

Yeah, you get the picture.

mynhair's picture

Bring on the Swedish (bikini team) bonds!

Shell Game's picture

I missed the picture, please post..  lol!

Gold 36000's picture

I never miss a high school fund raising car wash.  I can't help it.  I just love those perky tits.

Hey I'm not a pedophile.  If you think about it people like their fruit at the first moment it is perfectly ripe.  It only goes downhill in quality from that day of peak freshness.

uno's picture

pay for view of bankers, fed officials against hungry lions & hyenas

Misean's picture

We could bet Quatloos...

snowball777's picture

Two words: audience participation.

uno's picture

when I lived in Wichita a local stripper club had a car wash fund raiser.  To see those girls in bikinis in broad daylight while sober was horrifying.  Alcohol and dark bars are strippers best friends.

 

snowball777's picture

Perhaps a fund raising co-ed car wash?

 

Now there's some 'stimulus' I can <ahem>...get behind. "Shake it for your country!"

ghostfaceinvestah's picture

That's the problem with exponential equations - not sustainable.

Robert-Paulson's picture

Tyler,

 

remember what happened last time you used a Morgan chart?

mynhair's picture

Why isn't rice over 20, instead of 14 and change?

JohnG's picture

Wait for it.  Won't be long now. 

Still cheap.

(blah, blah long most of the strip)

Gold 36000's picture

Strangely if you go to the food commodity elevators and you are looking at it at the level of the real cash transactions it is widely reported that American rice sales are down because there is a glut of rice right now in the world priced less than American rice.  there will be less rice planted this spring because sales (at the truckload level from the elevators for either internal consumption or export) are very, very weak.

Fix It Again Timmy's picture

How bad can it be?  Check out this video at 20 seconds in:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5BiBn91Ag0

Caviar Emptor's picture

Today was significant not just for oil: NFP report was a tremendous tell. Into the 3rd year of the business cycle and only a pittance to show for it in terms of jobs added despite heroic monetary/fiscal policy. 

The tell is this: The engine of US economic growth no longer fires on all cylinders. And the long awaited turn in the NFP had that written all over it. 

 

What that means is  the public and also bank debt can not and will not be repaid. The only choice left is default through monetary debasement. Party on!

Gold 36000's picture

not a real default but a debasement.  If you watch the cycle and understand that treasuries are probably in a long term slow bear market with occasional counter trend moves then you can make money.

The next ten years will be a great time to be a contrarian.  Overbought and oversold conditions will mean something again.  One has to go long treasuries when people start getting really scared about inflation, probably in the next couple of months will be a good time.  Then one has to sell treasures as their prices are rising and people become afraid of deflation.

10kby2k's picture

When everyone bails from the stock market.....commodities are going to get really crowded.....then the government is going to step in with price controls and confiscation.

 

Backspin's picture

Price controls will lead to shortages.  If they put in price controls on food and gas, there will be shortages of food and gas.  If the government instigates price controls, bad times will be coming for all of us.

Gold 36000's picture

no they won't have to use price controls.  They are much more sophisticated now than in the seventies.  They will allow brief deflationary cycles to sorta kinda wash out some of the inflation in commodities.  Then they will start the inflationary process over again until people start getting nervous, then have another mild deflationary wash out.  Meanwhile the long term trend in commodities will be up, but it will be managed and not allowed to get out of control during this period of debt rebalancing.

THE DORK OF CORK's picture

The wests currencies have been grossly overvalued for decades - their tempory value has been based on a stupendous physical decapitalisation of utilities and industry.

Just monetize the shit out of it - you will see some Asian manufacturing capacity coming back withen a decade.

I will be glad to see the end of this industrial vandalism that started in the late 60s - the bankers need to be shot at dawn - what we have lost is incalculable but we may have something of value remaining.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=JacGZ4LxK-0

 

SilverRhino's picture

>> Just monetize the shit out of it - you will see some Asian manufacturing capacity coming back withen a decade.

What makes you think places like China will let it come BACK without nationalization?

THE DORK OF CORK's picture

OK - let them subsidise the oil needed to transport their shit half way around the world .

Besides - there is still a small cadre of applied scientists and technicians that we can use to rebuild with some dignity - but first lets just hang the lawyers and bankers.

Lord Welligton's picture

"What makes you think places like China will let it come BACK without nationalization?"

China has no choice.

Dork is right.

"Just monetize the shit out of it"

No offence.

Do you not think that "China", whatever that is, is aware.

Or do you think that "China" are just a bunch of British Opium smokers?

 

KinorSensase's picture

Dork, ++.  So pathetic that these fuck tarts (I'll add politicians to your hit-list, the moonlight position for lawyers/bankers) sold our country out decades ago and retarded Americans still think their standard of living is increasing because of globalization.  Human economies never existed until people started using their hands to produce goods.  How could a nation have an economy without producing the vast majority of their goods.  Any other type of economy is parasitism at best, but really more like cancer.

snowball777's picture

Wasting faster than Steve Jobs.

lolmaster's picture

As someone whose boat is loaded with paper gold calls, I say bring on the paper paper printing.

Buck Johnson's picture

"where, in the absence of ongoing central bank monetizations (with or without the assistance of major financial black holes like Europe's EFSF), will the world be able to find buyers for roughly $4-5 trillion in debt to keep the self-funded Ponzi going?".  There are only two places that they can get it from, another planet that decides to buy our debt or continued monetization until hyperinflation, thats it.  No one on this planet has the ability or the inclination to fund another country or countries debt to that crazy amount, and even if they did it would be at their countries peril.  As he said, as a last resort they may try to push this to the long end of the curve but it's at their peril.  Because if done, along with the monetization going no economists can defend a classic debt monetization of an economy and say it won't implode in disaster.  We are done, what is happening now is people are trying to find a hidehole or a place secure for their money when this whole game blows up.