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A 50% Pick Up In Revenue In 2 Years: A Cheat Sheet For Obama's Wacky And Wonderful Budget
We will spare you drinking (or reading as the case may be) the latest Koolaid from the White House. The only thing one needs to know about Obama's latest budget is that projected revenues are expected to grow from $2.2 trillion in 2011 to $3 trillion in 2013 (and $3.6 trillion in 2015). We wonder just where the tax increases will come from considering the new "compromising" administration has pretty much given up on the option of tax increases in order to get republican complicity to extend national looting and pillaging until the end of Obama's last term. What is unclear is whether the Treasury counts as revenues the interest payments remitted back to Geithner by the Fed on the trillions in monetized debt. In other words, the more debt monetized, the stronger the "revenues!"
For a full cheat sheet, see below.
From the WSJ:
FY 2011 projected revenue: $2.174 Trillion
FY 2011 projected spending: $3.819 Trillion
FY 2011 projected deficit: $1.645 Trillion
Spending as a % of GDP: 25.3%
Deficit as a % of GDP: 10.9%
FY 2012 projected revenue: $2.627 Trillion
FY 2012 projected spending: $3.729 Trillion
FY 2012 projected deficit: $1.101 Trillion
Spending as a % of GDP: 23.6%
Deficit as a % of GDP: 7.0%
FY 2013 projected revenue: $3.003 Trillion
FY 2013 projected spending: $3.771 Trillion
FY 2013 projected deficit: $768 Billion
Spending as a % of GDP: 22.5%
Deficit as a % of GDP: 4.6%
FY 2014 projected revenue: $3.333 Trillion
FY 2014 projected spending $3.977 Trillion
FY 2014 projected deficit: $645 Billion
Spending as a % of GDP: 22.4%
Deficit as a % of GDP: 3.6%
FY 2015 projected revenue: $3.583 Trillion
FY 2015 projected spending: $4.190 Trillion
FY 2015 projected deficit: $607 Billion
Spending as a % of GDP: 22.3%
Deficit as a % of GDP: 3.2%
And as John Poehling points out, to debunk Obama's lies that government spending is moderating, spending is projected to be 24.5% of GDP for Obama's first Term and 23.1% during his second term which is well above the historical average of 20% with the high end of 22% seen during the cold war of the 1980s.
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how can anyone in the US point fingers at chinas fake data
cnbc talking about build america bonds - now only a few days behind ZH
happy valentines day from obama
http://www.nationaljournal.com/what-could-you-do-with-3-73-trillion--201...
its good to work for the gov in CA
http://www.ktvu.com/news/26854805/detail.html
They have the GOOD drugs in these offices.
Does "spending" include the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan yet or are they still off budget?
Tyler, is it not spending - it is investing.
revenues are expected to "increase" as the Fed gives Timmy the interest payments back at the end of each fiscal year. since the Fed will soon own all treasuries, this amount can only increase as debt spirals out of control, and the Fed buys it all.
LMAO.
Virtuous circle as the chair creature puts it nicely.
Licensing (to steal).
Dick
Uhhh... Virtuous circle Jerk....
Just one more algo spurt upwards, and we reach SPX 1332 today. A perfect double of the March 2009 low of 666. Wouldn't that make a lovely valentine's day gift from Bennie and his NYU jets for the pig men in the front seats?
The Fed has created a perpetual motion machine - hooray!
Little to no mention of QE or POMO by those Fourth-Estate Vigilantes at Bloomberg...
Perhaps someone from the federal reserve or treasury will simply bring sacks of benjamins to Obama's office 3 times a day, which he can then drop while flying Air Force One over the USA, raising consumer spending and therefore taxes.
turn out the lights............its over..........
As someone said this morning on CNBC as they "uncovered" the printed budget live.... "Who even reads this thing?".
Even though the guy was talking about the government wasting money on the printed version of the budget, his statement pretty much says it all.
Saw that too. Maybe it was a backdoor plug for the Kindle.
Their assumptions are always magical.
CNBC will say the shortfall was unexpected. Bases covered.
Barrack 'Whacky Tobaccy' Obama has been sucking hard on some big spliffs to come up with a rising income... an economy 3 years deep into recession and Washington's still in LaLa Land
Please don't denigrate marijuana like this. Figures comprised in this budget can only come from hardcore meth or opiate usage.
Just goes to prove that Mary Jane is the gateway drug to QE 3.++
Would anyone in here short the RUT at its current resistance point of 826?
Has QE been called off?
This is all so laughable at this point. I wouldn't even know where to begin. Everything points to a deflationary feedback loop, which indicates that the reality is Fed monetization into the great beyond. Either a black swan gets sucked into the printing press and jambs up the gears - or we all get to shout out together "Shazam" as the slope to the tangent to our parabolic ponzi scheme curve approaches infinity.
"To infinty.....and beyond."
Buzz Bernanke.
Atually, tt's not parabolic, it's exponential, which is worse. But yes, I get your point exactly. This is some really bad stuff going on and the general population just doesn't realize it yet.
I love how he magically reduces the deficit by 500+ billion next year. That is hilarious.
My wife uses the same math (LOL).
The Shopper's Rule:
"Look how much I saved!"
CW
By not only increasing revenues by 20+%, but by actually projecting DECREASED spending from FY 2011. When was the last time THAT happened???
In other words, the more debt monetized, the stronger the "revenues!"
And the higher the gdp too!
BY JOVE HE'S GOT IT!
I'll take a crack at it.
When Zimbabwe Ben drowns us in his liquidity stream it will rock the hell out of prices. Wages will follow, but lag inflation, as is the norm. The increase in wages will of course increase tax revenue and drag people into higher tax brackets. All Ben has to do is get milk and gas to $20 and we should be able to hit these numbers no problem.
I'd speculate that the dynamics of our current situation will result in a pronounced lag effect. Peripheral jobs (non-essentials) will get clobbered the worst. It will all be about proximity to the essentials and the supply chain.
One only needs to crack open a history book and see what will happen. The traditional middle class jobs will get hammered. The educated classes that are highly specialized get absolutely destroyed as their wages don't even come close to keeping up with price increases. In the past the producers of the more core goods and services tended to do better. However we have largely outsourced those, or few jobs remain in the field because of automating, such as farming. It will be quite bad.
But this does not change my argument. If one raises the notational price of goods high enough it will provoke a notational increase in wages to some degree. Such an increase can and will be captured by the revenuers. Example prices increase 100%, wages increase 50%. Well that 50% increase in wages will be taxed by Uncle Sugar in full so Uncle Sugar's notational revenue will increase as the purchasing power of the slave...err serf...err... citizen is radically reduced.
I was thinking pretty much the same strategy, but in that scenario, there's NO WAY the expenditures fall as projected.
WAD (Working As Designed)
Since when have the projected expenditures not been some fairy tale from candy land? When those expenditures are that big and come right from a pixies backside you can know how well and truly scared the US is. That is really their best case projection for spending...
Yep. Really, we should just triple or quadruple Fed spending, anyway. It's the only possible source for economic growth these days. Would be great for equity prices.
It's taking way too long for the rest of the planet to burst into flames.
Two problems with your scenario - if prices rise by 100% most spending is going to rotate into food, energy, and other necessities. Discretionary spending would collapse. Since we're a service economy, if discretionary spending collapses the overall economy collapses too. The other problem is that if prices rise by 100% in a short period we would have social unrest, and social unrest is really bad for tax revenues.
Shameful
Now all you need to do is pass a law making all things ceteris paribus. And Deficits and Printing become a thing of the past.
Damn, this running an economy with moving targets is like playing Wack-a-Mole.
Gee, Ya think Ben and Obi ?
We've got to fund that trade deficit somehow! It's been down lately:
http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/ustrade.html
Lower tax rates resulted in higher revenues in the past. Just saying.
Yeah, the lower tax rates in the last decade are reaping benefit after benefit.
Revenues have risen. Record high in 2007 before the recession hit. We have a spending problem, not a revenue problem.
I'm willing to bet the deficit in 2015 will be north of $2T........and when you take the funny money accounting out it will be even higher......by the way someone needs to audit the BLS and their methodologies....
I have to get this White House Kool Aid recipe, it must be a humdinger!
1 part Everclear,
1 part sugar (or HFCS if you are in a junior position)
And 2 trillion parts POM(O) juice.
Breaking: None of this matters, as scientists are hot on the trail of Tyche/Nibiru/Planet X/Nemesis
Translation: We are totally screwed.
Largest planet in solar system could be about to be discovered - and it's up to four times the size of Jupiter:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1356748/Search-Tyche-beli...
/Sarc
Edit: Binary system, bitchez (I can cross off "submit a ZH 'bitchez' comment" off my bucket list now!)
We wonder just where the tax increases will come from...
Three words: Value Added Tax (aka National Sales Tax)
I predict that the implementation of this tax will co-incide with a bi-partisan re-writing of the healthcare bill to include a "public option". Obama "the Great Compromiser" strikes again.
I need some more hopium.....I'm 'jonesing' here....
Ive just upgraded to Hopicrack myself...
i've downgraded to not-a-hope-in-hellium which is where Washington is headed very shortly
Hopium has been replaced with Ludes 'n Red Wine to deal with the symptoms of Depression...
Remember: "The Change" is in your pocket...
Gubermint budgets look just like the bank's quarterlys. Begin with the desired result, then work your way back. It doesn't matter if it defies logic.
wapo says we may need to borrow additional $7.2 trillion
goodbye america. it was fun while it lasted
http://nakedempire.wordpress.com/
But how can that be? The Obama just cut the defecit by $500 billion! Scuze me while I whip out my Hopicrack pipe.
Reminder to self: Plant Pea and Bean seeds on Presidents day.
387827972210989
there , my 3YO just hit a bunch of numbers that mean as much as these "forecasts"
What the, I don't even...
"national looting and pillaging until the end of Obama's LAST term"???WTF
Is the US great or what?!?
USA! USA! USA! USA! USA!
USA will shortly need an upgrade to DSA .....'United' to Divided States of America because as soon as Washington starts bailing out bankrupt Democratic States the few responsible ones will start raising the roof and (justly) start questioning the entire Union (same about to kick off in Europe in the next year or so)
Go DSA
bring it!!
Obama can't unilaterally bail out the states. The money for doing that would have to come from the Republican-controlled House of Representatives.
well a recent report showed there's already a Republican turf war over Washington bailouts because some of the bankrupt States are GOP ...during Depressions it's not only countries that split apart but parties too
Michigan GOP Governor Snyder is already whining to Washington for help. So much for being "different."
He can't do it unilaterally, but it'll happen.
The bump in revenue is coming from:
1) Fy 2012: Expiring one year tax breaks relating to payroll taxes and bonus depreciation for businesses.
2) FY 2013: Expiring Bush tax cuts for the wealthy.
3) 4% economic growth projections
I can buy the 2012 bump. The SS payroll taxes will probably reset back to 6.2%. I am extremely skeptical that the republicans will relent on the FY 2013 bush tax cuts and thus counting that as revenue is optimistic. Also, these expiring tax cuts will adversely impact economic growth and that will further reduce reciepts.
The tax cuts won't expire. If Obama can't stick with his ideals the next president in 2013 won't.
Burden falls to middle-class and the national debt.
Can someone answer this question for me. ..when Ken Rogoff talks about internal vs. external default... does that mean foreign bondholders vs. domestic bondholders or does internal default mean federal reserve not paying itself but keeps paying interest to everyone else?
WHAT 2nd term?????
Idiot Obummer = Clueless-One-Term-Carter
http://www.distressedvolatility.com/2011/02/agricultural-land-turned-into.html
http://www.distressedvolatility.com/2011/02/agricultural-land-turned-into.html
there's no penalty for lying or being wrong, so why not shoot for the moon?
To Infinity, and beyond
Tyler, they do include Interest Payments as Revenues, I say that w/100% certainty.
Were not going to make it until 2015.. Sooner rather than later the world will do what the American herd refuses to do..
Really I thought this is how it is supposed to work. You create $10k additional bank reserves out of thin air, someone borrows the money to buy a car, for instance. The sales tax on the car is as much as ten percent in some places. That generates $1k in revenue, and the coupon on the T bill is zip, or zirp if you prefer. You keep doing that endlessly, and no one considers accrual accounting (is that the one where you count the entire debt, and not just the monthly cost to service it)
Obama bought GM, and now his company is stuffing the inventory channel, the dealers reach in their bag for loan incentives, but buyers still pay tax on full price.
The agenda is clear: crash the economic structure and join the NWO; under which you will be allowed to keep 20% of your gross pay; if you voluntarily turn in your guns and gold the percentage will increase to 30%. Simple plan, really; solves a lot of the elite's problems.
And people think gold and silver bugs are crazy?
Just fucking wow....
Harry you should love this, and WTF?
here's alot of income taxes to be paid,
I don't know cry, laugh..get mad??
Incredible..
DETROIT (AP) -- General Motors Co. will pay more than $189 million in profit-sharing to 48,000 U.S. hourly workers and millions more in performance bonuses to salaried employees, according to company documents obtained by The Associated Press.
GM will pay most hourly workers more than $4,000 each as compensation for its strong financial performance last year, said a person briefed on the bonuses. The payments come less than two years after the automaker emerged from bankruptcy protection with the help of a huge government bailout. They're more than double the previous record payment of $1,775 in 1999, at the height of the boom in sales of sport utility vehicles and pickup trucks.
What a disappointment the Obama budget is.
He needs to be a leader - tell people what they don't want to hear - that more revenue needs to be raised and entitlements need cut.
One can give him a pass on 2009 and 2010 results - he walked into a cesspool - but now he owns it. The reason why spending remains so high as portion of GDP is the transfer payments for healthcare and social security. That wasn't nearly the issue in the 80's and 90's as is now and will be more in the future.
And does anyone really think GDP growth will be as forecasted? Take the cr#%k pipe out of your mouth, please.
You do not know BHO if you think this is a disappointment. This is BHO at his very best -- this is what he is about -- not that the MSM would ever suggest such.
Oh, spare the poor guy. He just spends 3% more than the norm. Why is that a big deal? Besides, he only wants to be elected one more term. Can't blame him throwing your money around since I have not heard any outrage for a couple of months now.
Aren't the American people pretty happy with new high in retail sales, growing job prospect and iPad in every hand?
There won't be a second term. There won't be another term for The Bernank, either.
I'm going to cling to the belief that the majority of voters (50%+1) understand basic math and the unsustainability of Obeyme and The Bernank. I took the 2010 elections as a restraining order against the madness. In 2012 will come the eviction notice.
Hopefully, we make it to January 2013 with a serious president, not a community agitator. Think positive.
I may have thought that 10+ years ago. But now most Americans seem to have a victim and / or entitlement mentality. They want big government, they need big government to help them navigate every aspect of life. They are unable to find their own way through life. They don't much care the cost in terms of liberty or dollars.
The 2010 midterm elections refute your belief. Sure, there are many sheeple who have been sapped of their initiative and are happy to accept food stamps and welfare as they circle the drain, but those people are nothing close to a majority. Probably a third of adults and not the most likely group to vote.
I have to be optimistic, even as I prepare for the worst.
Hope you are right. Problem is most of those who did not vote in November (the majority of people) LOVE BIG GOVERNMENT -- and I can not count on them not voting forever.
Remember, it's not "50% + 1", it's the Electoral College and the Blue States may be decided by who carries the Dead People Vote. If you think that there is a "Power Elite' running the show, then you better check your Voter rolls, number of certified machines and who's driving all the trucks on Election Night.
If you think it's ugly in the Economics and Statistics sections in the back rooms, you haven't seen anything yet.
CW
+1,ooo
Bunch-o- new tax hikes in the budget.
Read more: http://www.atr.org/obamas-fy-budgetbr-taxes-more-a5844##ixzz1DxbhtbP0
"Barack Obama may lose the advantage of low borrowing costs as the U.S. Treasury Department says what it pays to service the national debt is poised to triple amid record budget deficits."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-14/geithner-quietly-tells-obama-de...
There really is nothing new under the sun with the latest budget proposal. As mentioned on numerous occasions on many Zero Hedge articles there is no intent to pay the budget off. We will roll it over to infinity until we hit a point where we can no longer refinance it to infinity. The current political leadership knows that this is the only game left in town.
The bridges to the economics of past monetary prudence have all been blown. We are all forced to march boldly forward towards the yet undiscovered destiny of our great country.
I'm confused...what's a federal budget?
Guess they didn't read the wikileaks docs about Saudi having overstated their reserves by 40%. And since as of January 2011, Saudi (supposedly) represented 78%—3.65 million b/d—of OPEC spare capacity and, as a practical matter, global production reserves, it seems highly likely that an Oil shock is coming soon so any idea of revenue picking up is wishful thinking at best.
http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2011-02-14/commentary-oil-shock-2012
Green Shoots Bonus Monies Bitchez!!!
House Party!!! who's got the Hookers and Coke?
The best solution to the budget issue: dissolve the federal reserve, reform the treeasury, and start issuing currency and bonds actually backed by the US government. Now we can afford things, but before we start spending we also need to dissolve members of congress as they have proven unworthy of governing this country and more aligned with the very imbalances that plague the world economy.
Obummer, you don't even have to worry about lying up some phony revenues for 2013...
You are a Clueless-One-Term-Carter if ever there was one...
Assumption is the mother of all fuck ups.
This is the same political baloney we have seen since Gramm Rudman. Until the morons that buy our debt stop. it will keep growing. I also think the Republicans are just as big a crock of shit as the White House and the Democrats. They will do nothing and push it off until the market says no more.
We will get QE 3-4-5. The Fed can't stop and the Liberals will not stop giving the country away.
What a banana republic.
"Day-Oh!
Day-ay-ay-ay-Oh!
Daylight comin' and me want to go home."
The Banana Boat Song.
H. Belafonte
David Stockman is on Bloomberg ripping the "budget" apart. Said Obama took a powder and caved to Military Industrial Complex.
Obama = Bullwinkle moose
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRW7pITY5Cg
http://www.risk.net/credit/news/2026193/moodys-lead-analyst-warns-growin...
Japan's Debt: One For The Record Books"Japan's debt in the government sector -- both central and local levels -- rose to 217% of nominal gross domestic product in 2009, the largest figure since comparable data became available in 1875, according to the IMF. The IMF's latest forecasts suggest the balance will reach 232% of GDP in 2012--only a year from now. During WWII, Japan's went heavily into debt to wage a global war, but the ration peaked at 204% in 1944."
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle/articleid/4888071
Japan Government Debt Hits Record Y919 TrillionTOKYO (Dow Jones)--Japan's outstanding public debt hit a record Y919.151 trillion at the end of last year, the Finance Ministry said Thursday, likely fueling concerns over the nation's fiscal health and adding to a sense of urgency within the government to quickly formulate a tax hike plan.
The ministry's quarterly data showed public debt rose 1.1% from the end of September, reaching a level equivalent to 194% of Japan's nominal gross domestic product for the fiscal year ended March 2010.
Japan's debt, fiscal deficit not sustainable: IMF
http://tiny.cc/gnu8d
{In other words, the more debt monetized, the stronger the "revenues!"}
That in essence is what monetizing debt is all about - print more, give the printed toilet paper to yourself to spend. What is silly is americans are prepared tobe paid in this junk. What's next? Bollywood starlets for presidente? Its just bananas, this country of fakes.