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5.7% Advance Q4 GDP Blows Out Estimates: Inventories Add 3.39%
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chalk one up for Leo
It would be just about impossible to have 5.7% growth in the overall economy while credit contracts at a record rate and we shed another 100k+ jobs. This number will end up being halved. The great inventory restocking that we keep predicting just isn't going to happen. The consumer is not there to buy goods at 2006 levels.
Most of this bump in GDP comes from Nancy Pelosi stocking up the bar on her jet with booze.
Taxpayers pay $101,000 for Pelosi's in-flight 'food, booze'
Speaker's trips 'are more about partying than anything else'
http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=123472
GDP @ 5.7% .... Government Spending Gone Wild.
All your jobs are belong to us.
+1
Sent an email to a family member when I first saw the number. Took a minute because I was laughing too hard to type. Her response (written in about 20 seconds from when I sent it), "not bloody likely!" Pravda has nothing on the Commerce Department and the BEA.
Sometimes you can fudge the numbers *too* much. We'll see today.
Yes eggSachsly
http://www.historiasiglo20.org/IMAG/images/finguerrafria26%20.jpg
There it is. You can read the GDP release in Russian if you'd like.
wtf? this is about GKChP (the communist putsch of 1991), not GDP! If there's anything similar in the contemporary american context, that'd be obamacare, not GDP statistics!)
Great job in getting the overall humor without taking me to mean that it actually was about GDP.
Molodiets.
It will be revised to 1.5% in a month, but the question is when it does, will CNBS report on it??
Excellent question, 10044, and I have a follow-on:
Will CNBS be anything but a home shopping network in another year?
I had some hope when they got sold off. Now I think the convicts have completely taken over the prison.
Wasn't the revsion history of Q3-09:
3.5% to 2.8% to 2.2% ? An error of 40%?
So an estimate of Q4-09 revisions certainly could be:
5.7% to 4.2% to 3.6%
And we already know PCE was only 2.0% a decrease from Q3-09. Gov't spending added 0.6% Q3 (is that accurate?) but I didn't see Q4 number?
Excellent!
Great headline number. Wonder what the eventual downward revision will be.
Moin from Germany,
the "Sugar High".... Let´s hope the end demand can absorb the inventory build up....
13:30 29Jan10 RTRS-US Q4 BUSINESS INVENTORY CHANGE -$33.5 BLN, ADDS 3.39 PERCENTAGE POINT TO GDP CHANGE (Q3 -$139.2 BLN)
I think the term "Double Dip" will soon dominate the search cahrts on Goggle/Trends.....
There is no inventory build up - inventories continue to decline but at a slower rate - this adds to GDP. Dismiss out of hand any media report that talks about confidence in outlook to build inventories or such bs as restocking.
This is a fairly weak economy, real PCE increase 2.0%....and now ask yourself: what happens in 2010? the last time blowout +3.7% Q3....revised down to 2.2%......pfffffff
Why even read the first look? The revision always shows it to be purely manipulative..
So the real number is probably something closer to +2%, right? Maybe?
But heck, I'm in the process of reviewing my compensation plan with my boss this month so this (totally BS) 5.7% number is absolutely News I Can (and sure as hell will) Use!
The absurdity continues with huge dollops of sticky BEA goo congealing into a wonderful housefly attractor that will eventually rival traditional flypaper or dog shit.
The BEA is the new Pravda.
wasn't GS out ahead of this number? I think they were right on the money on this one.
yup, GS went to 5.8% a few weeks ago. Surprisingly accurate-
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-boosts-q4-gdp-estimate-4-58-eco...
Easy enough to do when Goldmanites can just walk out of work (Read: US Treasury), head over to the BEA, flash their Treasury badges and get the BEA GDP estimates and call Timmay G's Aunt Lloyd.
I could give you dead eye accurate estimates under those circumstances...
Jan Hatzius wrote it on a piece of paper and Lloyd slipped it to Timmay overnight....
'The price index rose 0.1% in 2009'
bless 'em
Euro and gold are not confirming the spike in the futures.
Looks like the market is going to get sold again.
Probably a good time to buy this and keep it as long as it stays over the 50-day.
Gold is confirming coordinated liquidity drain in US and China.
It is?!?! How?!?!
Gold is saying bullshit to everything now. The attacks Gold withstood the last 4 weeks would have sent it well bellow 1000 in 2009. It ain't happening, things have changed folks.
'This time is different'.
You thinking that chart on gold looks STRONG right now?
Keep on thinking that, we all need a no-brainer trade every now and again.
does this mean a further drought of hotchick pics? say it ain't so, Robo.
+10. I come here for the financial insights and commentary, but I stay here for the RoboPix.
The lies get more and more bold every day. Why not just go on TV and say "Everything is great! The economy is booming, if you don't have a job then you a loser and should kill yourself!"
Well, that WOULD help with the unemployment problem...
Yep, you should! You would also use your chance to serve the nation by quitting the labor force and thus improving BLS headline figures!
I think you just described Larry Kudlow.
Updates on the counter trend rally :
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0
Hm? How many times have we read these words coming out of Washington....surprised. They are surprised at the high numbers and then next month, we are surprised at the revised numbers.
It is all a shell game now and a lot of BS. I don't believe any of them anymore!
How the heck can you have such high growth numbers with high unemployment, high debt, high foreclosure rates, etc.
These people are freaks, they just want to fool the people more and more. It is a modern day version of Rome's bread and circuses.
Oh you think this is a LIE. Wait for Q1 2010. That will be the lie that breaks all previous records of lying. Followed shortly by the greatest consumer entrenchment ever seen in the history of the planet as the average person in the world begins to finally understand that we are going to crash. No if's ands or butts.
Everyone restocked because well it's the end of the rope. If the consumer doesn't come back then it's fuck it all time. Which will create the huge lie of Q1 2010 because the consumer won't come back. Once the huge lie lands the inevitability of the destruction will create the super entrenchment. A non control freak faces his destiny with much bitching and moaning. A control freak faces an unpleasant destiny with every manipulative strategy known to mankind.
Here's the counter chart. Non control freak, conrol freak
Shock and denial. Also shock and denial.
Pain and guilt Desire to inflict pain and guilt
Anger and bargaining Rage, threatening, bargaining with no intention of fulfilling the bargain, full on assault probing for any weakness hook.
Depression, reflection Attempts to achieve cathartic release of pain using stabbing weapons, murder, abuse, back to denial focusing mostly on... you gave me no other choice, I HAD TO. Etc etc. No break down no reconstruction phase, no change.
Looks like a great time to load up on SDS
You first. I hope you're right but right now I'm expecting an early July style super rally even though it's the obvious trade.
I don't know. Remember what happened to the bears who subscribed to the obvious head shoulders trade last summer. Shorting on the up days seems to be working well so far.
The early July super rally is the obvious trade? I don't think so. Sell any rally.
Err, I mean the J6P retail obvious trade, IE the one my family and friends will be taking. Obviously things are currently turning red. It's looking like we're not going to get pumped back above those moving averages. Look out below? Dunno. I'm an amateur here looking for professional input.
Does anyone remember the cut-and-paste spreadsheet flub? Classic.
Oh great the economy is booming, lets raise rates!
They cant have it both ways.
Exactly - when the Fed raises rates to 1.000%, then I'll start to believe their "numbers" showing economic recovery. Well, I probably will never trust their "numbers" but you get my drift.
I'm cautiously bullish -- but I enjoy reading this site to follow alternative interpretations of market/eco data/movements, etc etc etc. I am debating other views -- I think nothing is black/white and there's much to fear/bash/run from, and much to embrace and cheer.
I've no problem with ppl having a truly bearish/cynical sentimate... it might be called for certainly... it probably is.
but--again--nothing is black or white...
can't a good ECO number come in and ppl with "ZH"-like views say nice... good job. instead of saying what's wrong with it.
prob something is inflated... but it is also good, I think,
thanks for listening
if the numbers had any truth to them, I'm sure "ZH-ers" would buy in, when clearly manipulated, why should we be celebrating that?
"Cautiously bullish"? Try being cautious to the bullshit. GDP, unemployment,stocks, whatever, its all BS.Forget an economic recovery because there is no economy left to recover.Decades of offshoring, outsourcing,trade deficits, budget deficits,and the importation of both skilled and unskilled third world labor(which continues every month legal and illegal includind 125,000 high tech Visas)has left nothing but an economic carcass for the maggots of Wall St. and Washington. The American people are not in competition with a global economy, they are in a battle for survival against the Distict of Columbia.
I know, right? I heard ZHers weren't even happy when we beat Eastasia!
The good numbers are presented as such to keep your hope alive. Meanwhile, the professionals use the rally that you (and others like you) helped to create by buying after the number is released to sell the stock they just bought on the last down move. When their inventory is liquidated, they sell short to prepare for the next down move. Up 100. Now where is it? +`13. Nasdaq already -7. Good luck.
Why so negative, Comrades! Life is good in Moscow on the Potomac. Recession is over, now we can get back to glorious redistribution of wealth.
Just go into the statement. The change in the nonfarm private inventories saw less of a decline in the fourth quarter than the third. But the number is still negative. No one is restocking anything, they're just consuming less of the inventories. Also there is no price index to private inventories because what method would you use?
They took the easiest fudgable number and they overestimated. Just leave it that. The whole metric is a hedonic and sardonic mess.
Dr. Bernanke or how I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Lies
I prefer "Love the Press".
"Gee, I wish we had one of them doomsday machines."
I did think about "Love the Obama" also...
Major Kong rides the Bomb
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ueuauKKjPZI
Just watched the movie last night :P
Best comedy movie of all times.
This one fits the GDP reports story well, imho:
"Mr. President, we must not allow a mineshaft gap!"
ya know? :) absolutely hilarious. I've never seen George C. Scott so damn funny.
I'll post this again...Three days ago
XEROX 2,500 LAYOFF
WALMART 11,500 GONE
STEIN-MART CLOSING 35 STORES
J.C. PENNY CLOSING 75 STORES
HOT TOPIC CLOSING 200 STORES
DILLARDS CLOSING 45 STORES
BARNES and NOBLE CLOSING 100 STORES
A&F CLOSING 179 STORES
ZALES CLOSING 200 STORES
VERIZON 16,000 LAYOFF
GAME STOP CLOSING 400 STORES
MACY'S 1,500 LAYOFF
CATERPILLAR OFF 65%
With the above,,what idiot would procuring new inventory?
You forgot Movie Gallery's impending Chap. 11 and liquidation of 2000 retail locations.
Last year was so much easier for the promoters. They could tout "green shoots" and "signs of recovery" everywhere and people would believe it and pile into stocks.
This year will be trickier hence the 5.7 number that's pulled out of someone's ass.
China's 10.4 growth is just as false fyi.
Extend and pretend taken to a whole new level.
Soon you'll have marches and speeches proclaiming that things are going great and when people are desperate enough, the propagandists will ask "DO YOU WANT TOTAL WAR AGAINST ECONOMIC DECLINE??"
And the crowd goes.. JAAAAAAAAAA
Heil Bernanke, heil Obama. Sieg heil America. LOL
In the meantime.. market is taking a gigantic crap again. LOL
Yawn, does anyone believe government numbers anymore?
Are we using the commie handbook from the 1980's on how to keep the masses happy as standard operating procedure?
Look forward to the revision numbers a month from now which will be slipped out very very quietly....sssh
Woooooooo!!!
A +5.7% means we can now end ZIRP, QE, the stimulus, and get our fiscal house in order. Right? Right?
.... hello? Anyone there?
DXY above 79. That's the real new story of the day. Should be above 80 in the next couple of weeks.
Amen Dxy. Find sanctuary all ye who enter here
Government
Derived
Propaganda
levels soaring.
Will Uncle Ben'$ thin air Uniterian printing forces be stopped?
Their ability to lever up the poniz deliverables on that balance sheet is admirable.
http://funy1.blogspot.com/2010/01/if-you-give-me-access-to-your-printin....
To live between a rock and a hard place
In between time
Cruising in prime time
Soaking up the cathode rays
To live between the wars in our time
Living in real time
Holding the good time
Holding on to yesterdays
You know how that rabbit feels
Going under your speeding wheels
Bright images flashing by
Like windshields towards a fly
Frozen in the fatal climb
But the wheels of time
Just pass you by
Wheels can take you around
Wheels can cut you down
We can go from boom to bust
From dreams to a bowl of dust
We can fall from rockets' red glare
Down to "brother can you spare"
Another war, another wasteland
And another lost generation
It slips between your hands like water
This living in real time
A dizzying lifetime
Reeling by on celluloid
Struck between the eyes by the big-time world
Walking uneasy streets
Hiding beneath the sheets
Got to try and fill the void
You know how that rabbit feels
Going under your speeding wheels
Bright images flashing by
Like windshields towards a fly
Frozen in the fatal climb
But the wheels of time
Just pass you by
We can go from boom to bust
From dreams to a bowl of dust
We can fall from rockets' red glare
Down to "brother can you spare"
Another war, another wasteland
And another lost generation
+1 heard that song a few days ago - one of those moments when you are just listening, and then you start listening. Rush ftw.
yah, thanks for posting that Rusty... shoulda made sure to mention Rush, thanks for pointing that out Tethys....
Oh Goldman Sachs Broadcasting Network is doing all the breaking headlines on Obama taking credit for the progress.... dear lord, I still affirm my call on what I called him, it's just too damn pitiful.
Sorry. This was purely a post for RUSH geeks. We are trained to recognize Neil Peart lyrics on sight.
I knew I'd find one out there. Tethys it is.
rgr/affirmative/got that right!
I recently joined the 21st century and finally purchased an HDTV. I was testing it out today by watching the r30 DVD and when they did this tune it just clicked with what we're going through right now. F-ing brilliant.
If inventories are growing, it'd mean merchants were (in Q4) betting on a recovery, not that a recovery is taking hold. If the bold ones are proven wrong, the outcome will be nasty.
well this would be the Rumsfeldian "slam-dunk" case for calling the end of the recession...
come to think: it'll make the Q4 2010 numbers that much worse technically (in addition to depression part II). look forward to that.
More smoke and mirrors, this chart once again, says it all:
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/gross-domestic-product-charts
Just saw Margret Brennan on Bloom from Davos. Its so cold she could barely talk, but she looked nice; nice makeup job, nice lighting, nice backdrop. I didn't listen to a word she said, so I can't report.
Don't worry, be happy.
During the last quarter I increased my inventory of toilet papter and whiskey - the new currency. I now have several warehouses throughout the country with these items because when all goes to hell, these items will become very valuable. Perhaps my large purchases impacted GDP. Sorry.
Short everything except toilet paper and whskey.
My toilet paper has pics of U.S. presidents on it. Pretty cool.
Hell, why not just make it 10%? Then we won't have to listen to all that crap about how China is overtaking us anymore. Get some of that FDI from the ROW flowing in here too. I mean if they believe those dastardly commies, they'll have to believe us, right? Right?