6 Must Read Essays By Jeremy Grantham

Tyler Durden's picture

Summer Essays by Jeremy Grantham

 

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Ragnarok's picture

OT: PHYS -5%

 

Premium being destroyed? Liquidations? JPM trying to teach its investors a lesson to stay clear of Sprott silver trust?

dan22's picture
In China, domestic companies often borrow from other companies. (they can be affiliated or unaffiliated). It is a standard practice, and most of this kind of inter-company borrowings are done in private. However, of these loans are carried through banks, in a process where the lender deposits funds to a bank account, the borrower gain access to this fund under bank surveillance. This loan practice is called “ Trust loan”, and is different from “trust products” or “trust investment products” sold to retail investor by the banks. The interest rates on these loans are very high, and often are more than a 15 percent annual rate. But compared to the shark loans that are carried out in private, the 10-15% annual interest rate of inter-company “trust loans” is very low.
Bankrupt Chinese Manufactures Lend to Real Estate Developers at Shark Loan Rates
Mad Max's picture

#4 is the best, concise, and accurate write-up on global warming/climate change that I've seen.

I expect to get junked by the flat-earth crowd, but the truth is all right there, or in James Hansen's book, or a million other places.

ConfederateH's picture

His point number 4 is drivel, and it discredits his entire piece.  Nothing to see here folks, move along.  Just more rank warmist-elitism.  (For those who are going to junk me, I am just dismissing him the same way he disses the "deniers".

Mad Max's picture

Wow, a confederate and a flat-earther... what other fine attributes do you bring to us?

ConfederateH's picture

Flat earther, thats almost as clever as calling tea-partiers tea-baggers.  You seem to be really current on all the latest progressive jingo.  I'm sure your buddies at Kos would be proud.

Commander Cody's picture

We are so bold as to think we little humans can have such a dramatic effect on the planet's climate.  This is being fed to us so that we welcome the transfer of wealth in the form of carbon taxes.  What bullshit!  The planet chills out, then heats up, then chills out, etc.  All this without our help.  Give me break. 

harveywalbinger's picture

100% agreement with your assessment.  The myth of AGW is nothing more than a new angle for  TPTB to separate you from your liberty...  in this case in the form of unnecessary & unjust taxation.  Yeah and suddenly CO2 is a hazardous gas too, right.  Because the EPA says so...  I don't believe anybody not working an angle to bank some coin could really get behind this bullshit.  

Getthefuckoutahere.  

I'm saddened to see that Jeremy Grantham has revealed himself as one of the power elite by agreeing to assist the grand AGW misinformation scheme.  The purpose of which is to destroy/enslave the lower economic strata of society (read: everyone who actually works for a living) through ever increasing taxation.  I had kept naive hopes that Grantham was one of the good guys... willing to stand up to TPTB, & had a lot of respect for Mr. Grantham...  until now.  

Fuck you Jeremy Grantham

suteibu's picture

Don't you know that the science is settled?  And, according to this guy, it's the "hard" science.  And there's no disputing that.

 

It's like that stupid-ass NY Times ad where the guy says, "The best writers in the world work at the Times...and there's no disputing that." (or something lke that)   Well, I think Zero Hedge, for one example, is evidence to the contrary.

Wyndtunnel's picture

I hope climate change deniers are the ONLY people who survive the destruction of our home planet. Then they can argue amongst themselves about what just happened while they simultaneously plan ways to kill each other for food.

russki standart's picture

Blah, Blah, Blah, more chicken little AGW BS. If you are going to make extraordinary claims, and expect billions to reduce their standard of living to support the new greenie aristocracy, you better have extraordinary proof, not just computer generated fantasies created from  climate models that prove nothing. Besides, please forgive me if I don´t share your religious faith. The idea of bowing to Lord Gore nauseates me almost as much as the thought that he would try to force a 54 year massage therapist to release his second cchakra! Imagine Gore naked.... (puke)

Fred Hayek's picture

I hope you're open minded enough to consider evidence that runs counter to your predispositions.

This is a wonderful site at which a gentleman who I believe is an economist has shown that the supposedly rock solid temperature records have been clearly fudged to create higher temps.

http://chiefio.wordpress.com/

The primary way it's done is by dropping colder rural temperature stations from the records over time and constantly re-calibrating the mass of the other thermometers according to records at places like airports. 

I'm sure you'll read lots of his posts.  Because you don't have to be afraid of facts, right?  Environmentalism's not a religion, right?

And here's a wonderful book by a gentleman named A.W. Montford.  It follows Stephen McIntyre's debunking of the risible, in hindsight, purported science of the likes of Michael Mann, Keith Briffa and others that had been the backbone of IPCC 3 and 4.

http://www.amazon.com/Hockey-Stick-Illusion-Climategate-Independent/dp/1906768358/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1279588373&sr=8-1

It's quite well written.  So it's no chore to read.  The only thing that would be holding you back would be reluctance to encounter facts that force you to re-think your predispositions.  But that's not a problem because environmentalism's not a religion, right?

New_Meat's picture

+1, let alone anyone thinking through separation of effects, where di-hydride monoxide contributes 40-70% of the "greenhouse effect" while good ol' CO2 is in the 4-6% range. - Ned

Sausagemaker's picture

+1 CH, he should lay-off the organic free-range Kool-Aid.

lolmaster's picture

yep just another addled-minded generic old white guy more interested in pleasing his social circle than making money. people like him control 99.9999% of the money and power in this world though so try to exploit him!

russki standart's picture

Yes, Mad Max you will be junked since Manmade Global Warming is a fraud pushed by the same banksters that have already destroyed our economy. Imagine, trillions of dollars made from creating and selling carbon credits, whilst REAL environmental problems get ignored. The science is already discredited beyond redemption and if you actually were genuinely interested in truth, you would know that the code behind Michael Manns hockey stick was designed to create an upwardly sloping curve even if you inputted random data.Keep also in mind that Grantham makes a great deal of money from their forestry investments, and carbon credits would have made them much more profitable since all they are selling is air! I read Granthams work and viewsw  but I am also understand their biases. In this case they are simply talking their book.

miamizsun's picture

Thanks Russ, you took the words right out of my mouth. Central bankers have corrupted some scientists just as they have economists. The earth has been going through these cycles for billions of years and transferring wealth to these jackasses in the name of saving the planet is just wrong.

Regards

TheWord's picture

Stick to the markets, Grantham, because you know precisely jack about global warming.  Here's the real ticket.  All you need to know about the global warming scam in 2Mb: http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/sh1/the_skeptics_handbook_2-3_lq.pdf

 

ISEEIT's picture

#4 is moronic and my guess would be that this guy has either an ideological bias or an investment bias. He lost at claiming that the solar influence has been steady, which is verifiably false. I've spent hundreds of hours over the last  few years measuring this debate and the evidence of a concocted , overblown, campaign to force action through fear is simply overwhelming. Too many false and or unproven statements in #4.

Not saying that we should'nt move toward renewables/clean energy. I believe that we should.

hellboy's picture

GMO really have a star team with Grantham and Montier (former SG Research). If they got Freddie and nice Grice from SG over too they could be the new super hero squad!!

 

Anyway top notch stuff from GMO as always!

hellboy's picture

btw for what it counts I really recommend Montier's "Value Investor" book (CAPM is CRAP etc...) brilliant!

NOTW777's picture

LOL  IBM earnings - nesto - "OMG" down 4

NOTW777's picture

jeremy sounds like joe biden to me.  all "stimulus" is good?  no difference how its spent?  SEIU, acorn $ for hiway signs?  just spend baby spend

Careless Whisper's picture

Everything you need to know about Global Warming in 5 seconds:

It is a scam invented for the purpose of taxing, and trading carbon derivatives.

It was pushed by Ken Lay, Enron, and Al Gore in 1997.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A37287-2002Jan12

 

nope-1004's picture

Would that be the same Al Gore that invented the internet?

He sure gets around.

 

 

russki standart's picture

No, he is the guy that tries to force himself upon 54 year old massage therapists, demanding that his second chakra be released. Guess he is bored with the rent boys.

russki standart's picture

Thank You. AGW scam summed up better than I could ever articulate..

Hulk's picture

We (my colleagues and I) have determined that the expansion of the Universe has a very large anthropomorphic component. Haven't been able to figure out a tax scheme however...yet...

Youri Carma's picture

Every thing you need to know about CO2 in one SEC - and that's all physics!

It's a Fraud!

Therec was some warmning up of earth before 1995 but so it was on MARS! Since there are no SUV's on Mars nor the other planets in our solar system who were also warming up the conclusion is easy The IPCC is a FRAUD!

CO2 Contributed by Human Activity: 12 to 15ppmv / version 1 Vid http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYLmLW4k4aI   The Great Global Warming Swindle http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5576670191369613647#

CBC - Global Warming Doomsday Called Off http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3309910462407994295&hl=en-GB

russki standart's picture

Sorry Youri, you are wrong, wrong, wrong! Didn´t you know that the martians and venusians destroyed their planets because they refused to accept as Al Gore as their saviour? As any greenie... they will tell you that we are on the road to hell if we do not submit to the one true faith... Denier Denier, pants on fire!!

 

 

 

 

the one true faith

russki standart's picture

Sorry Youri, you are wrong, wrong, wrong! Didn´t you know that the martians and venusians destroyed their planets because they refused to accept as Al Gore as their saviour? As any greenie... they will tell you that we are on the road to hell if we do not submit to the one true faith... Denier Denier, pants on fire!!

 

 

 

 

the one true faith

I am a Man I am Forty's picture

That's just what I want from a guy who invests my money, for him to dive into global warming halfway through his essay.  Gimme a break.

Arseclown's picture

I know.  More stimulus, and then global warming?  No thanks.  Just check the ECRI to know how well the last stimulus did, and check out the quacks who have been pushing global warming for the last five years.  The largest redistribution of wealth ever seen by man will occur if cap and trade goes through.  To MadMax, you've got a lot of faith in "science".  20 years ago, the "scientists" told us that an ice age was imminent.  And they'll be saying the same crap 20 years from now.  Scientists need a "crisis" to get funding.  Apparently the government has now followed that logic.

Johnny B's picture

+1

He comes very close to asserting that it (Global Warming) is settled science.  He also uses the word inconvenient more than once.

It is a sad day when someone as erudite as Mr. Grantham sounds suspiciously like looney Al Gore.

russki standart's picture

Actually, Johnny B. Jeremy Grantham is just talking his book. His fund invests very heavily in reforestation and makes good money from it. They would make much more money buying, selling  and trading carbon credits, since they are producing nothing and getting paid for it. Carbon credits are simply another flavour of the various derivative scams that made Wall Street Trillions whilst destroying Main Street.

harveywalbinger's picture

Talking his book is no excuse to endorse debt enslavement of the entire fucking developed world. You gotta have a line you won't cross...  

Fuck Jeremy Grantham

deadparrot's picture

The theory that govt stimulus can help lift an economy out of recession is, IMO, reason enough to completely discredit Keynesian theory as pure drivel. Govts will always apply stimulus for political and personal reasons, and rarely or accidentally for purely economic reasons. Is the current stimulus helping the economy? Not really, because it was used to bail out banks and not on projects that would create jobs like infrastructure, small business lending, etc. And, if the stimulus actually worked, do you think there would be a single politician who would advocate raising taxes to pay for said stimulus. No way. They would just preach the same old crap about growing our way out of the debt. If govts cannot reasonably be expected to use stimulus wisely, they should not have the power at all.

Economists should be required to get a double major in college: the first in economics, and the second in common sense.

nevadan's picture

From a geological perspective the use of a data sample of "at least the last several thousand years" is statistically insignificant when looking at systems that have been operating for several hundred million years.  CO2 levels have been much higher in the past.  The Cretaceous coal swamps formed in one such period, but what the heck, that was 60 million years ago.  Probably doesn't mean anything at all.

anarkst's picture

This guy made his fortune and now he's concerned with all these problems?  What a load of shit.  These problems have been known for decades.

DoctoRx's picture

The financial guys are lobbying more and more desperately for more money-printing.  Golly, do you think they have any influence at central banks, the poor powerless dears?  The deflation bogey monster and all that.

In the early stages of hyperinflation, it appears (wrongly) that there is a shortage of "money", and so even a well-intended central banker prints more.  But it's all an illusion. 

Prices are rising in what you buy every day, in the taxes you pay (direct and indirect).  The only prices that are falling are what you own, namely your home and IBM/TXN etc.  And to boot you earn less and less on your savings.  The only way the deflation argument can fool anyone is for the economy to worsen.  But then the govt has even less and less income and more and more countercyclical spending and soon enough it's Brazil/Argentina of not too many years ago.

And re global warming, I'm agnostic but suspicious because if the PTB were serious about the subject, they'd simply directly tax fossil fuels and forget about the cap and trade scam.  Do you think that Grantham wants more and more cap and trade to grab a piece of?  (As if there's any doubt about the answer!)

In brief, Jeremy's talking his book.  IMHO the only valuable info he provides is his relative value analyses by asset class.  Historically it has paid off to pay attention to them.

LeBalance's picture

For this essay to say: "Global warming is settled..." and "...based on hard science..." makes this essay and the tools writing it fools.

The soft scientific literature and the PORN known as the IPCC don't even know how big the Himalayan Glacier pack is, let along how to unzip their flies.

The hard science, meanwhile, that appears in peer reviewed literature, models the suns energy, a function of its solar flare cycle, (and increased intensity flux) as being the vast majority cause (and completely natural) of the current warming cycle.

We are in the solar flux bath of the Sun.  When it heats up so do we.  It is heating up.

End of Science.

Enter Hegelian Agenda.  Stage Left.  "Oh, Its So Inconvenient to tell the Truth, When You Can Lie."

Jeremy Grantham is a tool of liars.  As a result he is a fool.

exportbank's picture

I'll vote that the big orange ball in the sky is the cause of the great weather and the cold winter was caused by a lack of sunshine. No matter what, it's not a problem mankind would fix anyway - but a great reason to add new taxes and fees.

ElvisDog's picture

The problem is that you cannot feed the current World population except for unlimited use of fossil fuels, primarily oil and natural gas. If you want to drastically reduce the use of oil and natural gas, you'd better also come up with a way of euthanizing 2/3 of the world's human population.

mephisto's picture

The important piece of this article isnt anything to do with the temperature of the planet, It's in the use of the phrase "Bernanke put".

If you think such a thing exists then you have to believe the market will fall then rise as the put becomes visible to everyone in the market. If not, IMO you have to believe just collapses.