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A 7 Million Increase In US Population Results In A Labor Force... Decline? Why The US Has Really Lost 11.2 Million Jobs This Recession
One of the most peculiar observations of this depression started in December 2007 is that while the total US population has increased by 6.8 million from 303.3 million to just over 310 million in July 2010, over the same 32 month period, the civilian labor force has declined from 153.9 million to 153.6 million. This makes zero sense, as all those aging into working age, or immigrating into the US need to find some job or some other paid activity (either legally or illegally). But let's assume that due to discouragement with economic conditions people simply refuse to look for jobs. The reality is that eventually all those people will come storming into the job market, once the economy recovers sufficiently. Which is why we make an estimate of what the "fair value" of the civilian labor pool is based on the historical average participation rate of 50.4% (as a percentage of total population). Backing into the cumulative population growth by this estimate, means that as of July 2010, the labor force has really grown by 3.4 million, once the one-time adjustment of a "recession" is eliminated (and after all that's what all modern economist claim right - that recessions are merely one-time blips on the road to perpetual Keynesian growth). In other words, the cumulative differential between the labor force as reported, and as calculated has hit an all time record of 3.7 million: this is a number that has to be added to the 7.6 million directly tabulated unemployed to get a sense of just how many jobs have been lost assuming a reversion to the mean for the US economy. In other words, after eliminating the statistical voodoo of the BEA and the Census Bureau, the US has lost just over 11.2 million jobs since the start of the recession.
Chart 1: we demonstrate the cumulative change in the population of the US, the cumulative change in the as reported and the as calculated labor force, and the difference between the two (thick black line).
Chart 2: Cumulative job losses since December 2007, based on Establishment Survey estimates and adjusted for Labor Force "Catch Up"
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Well done. This is a timely piece, and is something that the MSM is conveniently overlooking.
The people on the front lines, looking for work, can tell that something different is going on than what the propaganda machines are reporting.
I'm one of them.
Outside of a long car ride or a security clearance, there really isn't work around.
Going from bubble to bubble destroys any economy. But the government needs to cover-up to keep the charade going.
Most of the time, RE bubbles and not equities or other bubbles destroy an economy.
This is due to the leveraged nature of RE bubbles, which bankrupt both the banking sector and the citizenry.
Wait until the election when at least 10 million extra bodies will vote that are not on the voter registration rolls.
"I do not care who votes. I care who counts the votes." - Joe Stalin
Diebold does. Just sayin'
'Live free or Diebold'
- Sokhmate.
The phrase "job or some other paid activity" pretty much hits the nail on the head.
The fact that the latter exists is something the article didn't touch on, and obviously the politicians' doing everything they can to expand "other paid activities" is the source of most of our problems.
When your choice is "job" or "paid to not have a job", of course you'll tend toward the latter. And the socialists continue to build themselves a permanent voting block of dependents who keep them in office, taxing away half the earnings of the suckers still working.
End result? Detroit, Chitcago, Newark, Philly, Baltimore, Camden, New Orleans, Oakland...taken nationwide.
Yeah but who'll be the Republican candidate? Palin? Gingrich? A moron, who's practically a human talking point machine, or a lying, cheating, thieving scumbag.
I'm not sure. Need to know the working-age population.
The stats for 1990-2000 show the largest population increase in US history (at least at the time). Won't all be down to new births/current new workers, of course.
The way this economy is, almost everyone old enoung to work is needed to work. Many retirees with their income down are trying to return to work.
I have to travel between Houston, TX and San Antonio many times a month. Over the last 8 times (some weekday, and some weekend) at Katy, TX, their are four rail sidings at the end of the line, and only once have I seen it empty. Most of the time all four sidings are full of freight cars. Also, at Lake McQueeny, I have seen freight cars on several sidings.
It pretty clear to me. Didn't anybody see Benjamin Button?
People are born at the age of 90 years old. And the older they get, the younger they get.
That's also why people need to work at the age of 70 because that would be they are all still fit enoug to do the work of a 20 year old.
All pretty logical actually.
And on a serious note: It's not because there are now more babies, that they are all already able to go to work.
And guess what? No end in sight. Each year more "students" will graduate and find themselves eligible to work for 2.5 years prior to having to obtain a sponsor for an H1B. Each year more undocumenteds will enter the country looking for work - competing with citizens but ALSO PRIOR UNDOCUMENTEDS!
Since the job market is not growing these conditions are untenable. The government, la-raza, etc will all have to accept that they have killed the golden goose. Middle America already knows it - why bother?
These UNDOCUMENTEDS you call them work for the minimum wage. In every period of time where a country received a huge inflow of a cheap labor force, this was followed by a overall rise in wealth and economic growth.
It pretty easy for not so smart people like yourself to blame these people for the loss of your job but face it:
- If you do a job that doesn't require you to have any skills
- Doesn't require you to speak the native language
- And pays the minimum wage
Is that really all you can be?
Do you need to blame others because you failed in live?
You are most likely a bum that dropped out school when he/she was 15.
People like yourself that promote hate are people that are unhappy with themselves and like to blame others.
The problem is you and not somebody you don't even know.
Wow, thats quite a leap to make about someone you do not know. Would that "overall rise in wealth and economic growth" also coincide with record growth of debt?
That's quite the stretch, considering the United States is the result of immigration. Or is it only modern day immigration which is bad? When was the exact cut-off point?
Probably when they closed Ellis Island and stopped screening for communicable diseases. Or maybe Teddy Kennedy's 1965 "Immigration Reform."
- Ned
they don't work for minimum wages.. just look at construction. These migrants are payed exactly the same as citizens only the cost of employing them is less for enterprise and state stats alike. Eveyone acts like immigrants are cheated .. BS. It's the American born who have been getting fucked.
Right, keep blaming immigrants. That's exactly who you are supposed to accuse of screwing you over. No, not your leaders or neighbors. It was those savages! They're stealing your jobs!
when have you worked with these people? I spent 40 years working with them, and employing them. Immigrants would over wise be without pay, but instead they earn good money. You should at least know what the hell you're talking about.
Now, if I only knew what you were talking about.
These people walk and cross the border freely , even at the risk of lossing their lives... Now.. go Fuck yourself.
Your eloquence is stunning.
I'd sure hate for someone to loss (sic) his life than just stay home and be safe.
Growing up, one of best my friends and his family made the crossing from Laos to Thailand at a time when getting caught crossing the river meant death. They then made it to the US, and he into my first grade class.
I'm not sure why I'm telling you this story, but I'm less sure of what you're trying to tell me or what it is you think I'm saying.
Their is a big difference in ILLEGAL versus legal immigrant. I believe most of the problem is ILLEGAL; although employers will go to great lengths to hire some legal, 1HB, legal immigrants versus an American.
Waiting for you to explain the difference to me...
They don't work for minimum wage and I wish at least that they would get that. Then, for example, black teens would be competitive.
Pretty neat to tag people who disagree with you with hate.
Sad to say, that now when young people ask me if they should stay in school, or if they ask me if they should go to college - I must tell them the truth and give my opinion that they are wasting their time. There will be no job when they get finished and all the money that was spent in their education will not generate the expected return.
Education levels only go up. To keep pace they need to study their asses off. That's what I teach my kids.
Without a good diploma it's pretty fucking hard to get a descend job these days.
I see immigration as a long term good thing. But now that things turn out a bit harder, I don't think you should knock down the weak because you think all will be well again.
Banks blew it, politicians blew it. Not the immigrants.
What's next?
The handicaps that need to go?
Sick people cost to much and should just dy?
Are you to black or to white? 60% of American's is coloured, watch out what you pick.
"You can judge a society by how they treat their weakest members."
I judge you.
It's nice to know not everyone here is so eager to put Mexicans in concentration camps.
No way no how!! We are all on the same side here!! We will all be in the camps if we don't stick together...
It's already happening, yo.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_n-MRY5VGuI
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9etvXwPpEc&feature=player_embedded#!
But what else do you do with people determined to be here by illegal means yet have no homes to go back to?
Education levels only go up? Why is the workforce of Texas expected to be comprised 30.1% of those lacking a high school education come 2040?
I think he meant it as world wide in that as the world tends to progress, education requirements and number of specialties goes up, meaning that your example in Texas shows a local "falling behind" in relation to the rest of the world, maybe?
Someone has to work...
Not feeling the Love...
"Without a good diploma it's pretty fucking hard to get a descend job these days"...
Just poetry....please keep it coming.
And just as hard to get a descend education it seems.
Great point that collage is not what it used to be to secure a future- since it's been commoditized. Sadly, too many are in debt servitude because of misplaced perception/council. We need workers that produce real good's that others need to buy. If anyone told these kid's about the alternatives in trade work, they could get great paying jobs with more security and satisfaction than the average "Grad" could only dream about.
"Great point that collage is not what it used to be to secure a future"
When did this happen? Fucking useless scizzors....
Ye doth taunt to excess. Watcheth thy backside.
'the civilian labor force has declined from 153.9 million to 153.6 million'
Oh golly I guess they are all going back to school to learn new skills for the global economy. But wait... according to the 2000 census there were 76.6 million students enrolled in schools from kindergarten on. Out of this total 17.5 million were enrolled in post-secondary (college including graduate school.) Assuming the 2010 census doesn't report that an epidemic of forty and fifty somethings are joining the beer-bonging caste that is today's 'enseignement supérieur' in an entirely stealth fashion, 'going to school' seems to be a specious explanation...
Where did you go Joe? A nation bids its unemployed adieu in this Great Depression.
Although he may not always recognize his bondage, modern man lives under a tyranny of numbers.'
-Nicholas Eberstadt
Or as Alice said when stuck in the rabbit's room 'there's no room for me to grow up anymore here.'
I have a good many non traditional aged students in class, maybe as many as a third. I have a retired nurse who is 71 years old, in her wheel chair. I have a couple others I don't know their ages, but they have handicap accommodations that I must make that are age related. I have cops looking for a pay raise and moms looking to better their situations. Ex-navy, unemployed, told me point blank she is sitting out her unemployment in class, she isn't even going to try to find work. Another ex-navy, disabled for life after an explosion (seems the boiler rooms blow up all the time and we don't hear about it). University looks really different than it did (okay, I'll say it, a little like a hospital room). Non traditional students have their own union and services, etc.
It is going to be hard to sort who is who in these stats. But I'll tell you what, right this second, enrollments are waaaay up. We have had increases in student population anywhere from 6-9% every semester for the past 2 years. It is the only thing saving our asses. I am teaching a mass class to accommodate demand, ran out of seats pretty early, could have taken more if we could have found a bigger room.
I see this wave going for a while. People are living off Pell grants, food stamps and student loans along with the unemployment in some cases. Not a bad strategy if you are in trouble and are decent with school. Just hope the debt does not paralyze them to the point that the job they get afterwards cannot pay back the debt. That is the trick. As long as the money flows, they will make this choice, if they can. Never before have we had so many applicants to our graduate program that already have 1,2, or even 3 masters degrees.
It's weird out here.
Welcome to The University of Moral Hazard.
Ms... as TD as aptly stated the numbers not only do not add up, they beggar the imagination.
My comment was truncated here is more colour...
(Year 2000) Not in the labor force : 69,994,000
(Feb 2010) Not in the labor force : 83,487,000
13 million people, over the last decade, have neither jobs nor any desire to look for one?
That's greater than the total increase of the civilian labor force!
Expanding on previous posts...obviously they didn't all go back to school...
Shuffling through an old file I came across a comment from The Northern Trust Company here in Chicago from January 10,2006:
Noteworthy Aspects About the Participation Rate (2000-2005)
The labor force participation rate has dropped each year in the 2000-2004 period and held virtually steady in 2005. This is an atypical event because during economic recoveries the participation rate rises as more people enter the labor force. There is no conclusive research explaining the reasons for the downward trend...tentative conclusions are that increased enrollment in school in the group aged 16-24 and women aged 25-34 dropping out of the labor force for child rearing are the new events explaining the drop in the participation rate. Additional research and time will help to sort out this issue.
Well certainly time has passed, one wonders what research has wrought?
A: Not much but conjecture.
More folks in prison, more disability payments, less baby boomers ... not much in the way of a definitive explanation has been made as to why folks seem to keep on disappearing and never coming back (in aggregate and most especially if one considers population growth).
A breakdown by month this century can be had from:
http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_num...
"... that the job they get afterwards cannot pay back the debt..."
What job?
This is great insight. When the going gets tough, go back to school (for free if possible) and join all the other Grads looking for the Holy grail. We need more people in the trades making real stuff people need to buy. Everyone and his brother gets a degree, and it's become commoditized to the point of absurdity. No one want's to do real work anymore. If we all work at making nothing but cash, what do we end up with?
No one want's to do real work anymore.
Because no-one on a normal wage can afford to pay for it! I am building a sea-kayak in my spare time. This will cost me about 80 hours of work and maybe USD 500 in materials. If I paid a boat-builder to do it, the same job - with maybe a better finish - would cost me at least USD 6000!
To earn that amount, after taxes, I would have to suffer 400 hours in my godforsaken IT job!
The added irony is that the boatbuilder would only earn USD 1500 after VAT, Taxes and materials. We have Peak Government, IMO.
I like this and will be using this. We will survive peak oil, it is peak government that is the problem.
It is very weird out here.
I am (fortunately) wrapping up an advanced degree this semester, but with no ball and chain debt like many.
You are correct, many students are surviving off the grants / loans for school on the hope that when they're done something will be available that provides enough income to repay those debts. Problem is it's just another form of extend / pretend with no assurance about anything post-graduation. This is not sustainable in the long run either.
I also know many who have completed one advanced degree who simply moved on to another because there were no jobs. Piling more debt on top of the existing debt in an attempt to forestall the inevitable repayment / default.
In two or three years when they emerge from another degree the prospects don't look any better I'm afraid.
Gee, I guess we're not allowed to touch on the third rail of progressive politics, mass third world immigration. Who would have thought the labor market really did function as another market with supply and demand curves? I wonder what happens if we increase the supply, oh I know! It's a deflationary pressure on the pricing of labor.
I saw figures that stated that the situation in California is many times worse than it was in the 'Lesser' Depression compared to this Greater Depression
Call it like it is... not the Great Recession, the bluh bluh bluh, great shootium hopium, Great recession 2
It is the GREATER DEPRESSION and will go down in history as such no matter how much the MSM and talking clowns of inkjetium world like sheeple to think
Every other recent recession has had to deal with an increasing employment participation rate amongst women. This percentage has topped out a few years ago though. Combined with the onset of boomer retirements perhaps this explains the decrease in workforce numbers.
Thanks TD...you answered my question. I was having a hard time understanding why the NILF kept growing, yet all these supposed new jobs were created and everything was A-OK.
The latest from John Mauldin:
http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/index.asp
This article is a good read:
http://www.kauffman.org/uploadedFiles/firm_formation_importance_of_start...
Next you'll be telling me the M3 hasn't been published since...[when the fuck was it last published anyways?]...
Got that covered:
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/money-supply-charts
Federal Reserve estimates... How appropriate.
So I guess we have a new category of mathematics now: fiat statistics
It is apparent that you do not know Mr. Williams credentials. You might want to take a look at that before you surmise that he is just guessing.
The comment was a riff enforcing the skepticism of the headline (i.e There are lies, damn lies and statistics).
The fact that that the Fed of all people are providing statistics that feed these estimates on this important measurement perhaps establishes a new category: damned statistics.
It wasn't a knock on the author just the under(lying) [sorry, couldn't resist] numbers from the Fed.
Thanks for the link. I'll check out William's ongoing analysis of the shadows.
cheers
which is why the first law or thermodyamics in physics is relevant! neither is matter created or destroyes onoy transferred. shawn mesaros, pamria, llc
SEPTEMBER 2010
http://williambanzai7.blogspot.com/2010/09/september-2010.html
How many illegal aliens lost their jobs? Since these people do spend their income within the US, this could also have a negative effect on GDP.
While I've been sympathetic towards Arizona and the border states' desire to enforce immigration laws [you have ZERO rights when your first act in a country is to break it's laws just to enter], I've ALWAYS felt they're exaggerating the situation, perhaps by alot---not having been to the southwest for a number of years now.
But I MUST say.....the US population increased by ~7mill in 3years!??!?!!?! Is that a joke? Tha'ts almost TRIPLE the historical average of ~1mill/yr .... and it's correlational impact on the sudden surge of the unemployment % should be more carefully scrutinized and explored.
And please, don't start with idiotic comments about immigration. That is **NOT** the point of my comment here.
actualy its' 14+ mln.. very easy fugure to come up,,
work population total PRIVATE JOBS (unadj)
2007jun 231713 116603
2010aug 238099 108903
so,,, overall loss private jobs + increase of population is around 14+ mln..
I dont include non-private jobs in calculation, ,whats the point ? w/ deficit around 10% GDP number of gov/state/local jobs must be reduced.. no way around
alx
source
bls.gov
ps
forget to add: 2007jun - latest peak in private jobs
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