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From 70% To 35% To 75% Net Long In Under A Month: Ultra High Frequency Day Trader Extraordinaire Barton Biggs Flip Flops... Again... And Again
The only thing worse than HFT algos
that buy and sell the same stock 1 million times a day, are highly
overrated "hedge fund managers" who pretend to have a long-term view on
the market, yet flip their mind 180 degrees not once, not twice, but
three times in the span of less than 30 days. At least HFTs
are merely programs: their stupidity is endowed in their decision
making process by their 19 year old math Ph.D. creators, who
incidentally have long proven
that correlation is in fact causation (until the market plunges by
90%... at that point it is always time to reevaluate one's stupidity
for about 2 minutes, and then jump on the latest Fed reflation attempt
with no changes). The question is: what excuse can Barton Biggs use?
June 30 (Bloomberg):
Biggs said bullish bets make up about 70 percent of his investments and isn’t selling because
he expects the S&P 500 to finish the year 10 percent to 15 percent
above its level now. He favors property developers, oil service
companies and technology suppliers in the U.S. and emerging-market
equities.
“I still believe that it’s just a soft spot,” said Biggs,
who helps oversee $1.4 billion at New York-based Traxis, in a
telephone interview yesterday. “If we have 3 percent real GDP
growth in the second half, chances are we’re going to get
somewhere between $85 and $90 a share in S&P 500 earnings. It
might be a little less than that. It might be $80, but S&P 500
earnings are going to be fine.”
July 2 (Bloomberg):
Signs the U.S. economy is weakening convinced Traxis to
reverse course as the S&P 500 posted a weekly slump of 5
percent, bringing its loss since April 23 to 16 percent. Biggs,
77, said yesterday he cut bullish bets by about half since June
29, when they made up 70 percent of his fund.
“I can change my mind very quickly,” Biggs, who manages
$1.4 billion, said in a telephone interview following the
Bloomberg Television appearance. “I’m not wildly bearish, but I
don’t want to have a lot of risk at this point. I just want to
have less exposure at a time like this.”
July 26
Barton Biggs: "I like big caps, I like techs, I like the oil service space, I like REITs... I clearly think that the right thing to do is to be bullish." And yes, deleveraging is bad, baaaaaad: "The public has a lot of cash, a lot of buying power, and it's not earning anything on its cash." The public also has far more debt, but who gives a crap. This is Barton Biggs, hedge fund manager extraordinaire after all. "I am about 75% of my equity net long."
In other words: from 70% to 35% to 75% in less than thirty days. And someone let this day trader on the Tom Keene show? How? Why?
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Now we know where the missing meds are!
Classic! +13,500,000,000,000
Haha, post of the day
lol yes, that was hilarious. +6.022*10^23.
BTW - gotta LOVE, just LOVE that sidebar adds now on ZH showing Jim Cramer as "The Expert". OMG is that not freaking hilarious!
Biggs change on July 2 earned him a phone call from ....... about the damage he was doing to a fragile economy.
So he had to switch back to a position that supported the teleprompter.
When the neighbours saw him walking out naked to get the paper (in the wrong mailbox btw) they should've called social services. The man is clearly so senile that he can't decide whether to piss, shit, take a shower or have dinner.
++++
Pretty soon, the only commercial activity left will be an all consuming, maddened, parasitic speculation just like how Elgin Groseclose described the roman empire in 300 A.D. in his book Money and Man.
Aren't we there yet, already?
@Jason T
Aren't we already there? BTW, impressive reference cited there. Googled it and it sounds rare. May have to put this on the Cliff's Notes list unless you want to offer any more on it.
almost..
I wrote this quote from book back in February.
Allow me to quote from the book "Money and Man" written by Elgin Groseclose, on pg. 43 when he refers to the Roman Empire in around 300 a.d.:
"The disintegration continued, and there seemed no power great enough to stop it. The Treasury was empty, agriculture prostate, industry demoralized, trade stagnant, and the only commercial activity was a maddened, consuming, parasitic speculation."
booyay MF. What about that Mr. Fung?
Money and Man is available in PDF format from Mises.
http://mises.org/resources/3138/Money-and-Man
BB: Ben Bernanke, Barton Biggs.
Both good contrary indicators?
And Bridgette Bardot - now she had a pair of indicators!
whoever is his broker is making money at least
LOL
I knew someone could find the bright side of life. :>)
I've been taking the free month subscription to The Gartman Letter and it's the same thing....flip-flop for this past month. He makes a point, valid?, that he is a "trader" but he also runs a hedge fund. This back and forth manic-depressive attitude is really frustrating. What a clusterf*#K!
Some of his fund-of-fund clients must have given him a call and told him not to be a party-pooper. What macro-economic data could have made one switch back and forth in that time period? I can <understand> the perma-bulls arguing about a soft-patch (those were RECORD increases in new homes sales today after all), but not changing one's mind like that...
Still haven't seen the Dallas Fed Index on TV.
Only appropriate tune for BB is the 21st Century Schizoid man, enjoy:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8Yo3FJDrbc
13% of 77-year olds have dementia .... welcome to the club BB
Barton is Koo KOo. ..'The reits are still cheap'..lol
None of this matters to a billionaire, let alone, a 77 year old billionaire.
Just sing along: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qwlK5b4KYfI
I want to see Hugh Hendry debate with this guy [without getting into a fight]
another pne allowed to talk [hype] his trading book in public. why would anyone ever listen?
Biggs should get a lifetime achievement award for being the most overrated talking head on TV.
This douchebag has been showing up on TV as an "expert" forever and I still can't figure out why.
Alzheimer !!
NT
Mutual fund Monday is back....except of course there has been net outflows of cash for the last 13 weeks.
Makes perfect sense.
For full disclosure, one doesn't have a Ph.D and one remains in a post "don drapper likes it rough" haze.
Stock Buying Hits Bull Market Record at Mutual Funds
Bloomberg
Mutual funds, pensions and endowments are spending more on stocks than at any time since the start of the bull market, just as individuals grow the most pessimistic in a year.
Institutions pushed equities up to 68 percent of their holdings in July, the highest level in 15 months, from 63 percent in April, a Citigroup Inc. survey showed. The ratio of bullish to bearish respondents in a survey by the American Association of Individual Investors has fallen to 0.68, the lowest level since July 2009, based on a four-week average.
That one really made my day
A lot of the smart money ain't so smart after all.
Take Jim Rogers for an example. He publicly castigated Nouriel Roubini last year for daring to even consider China being in a bubble. Fund managers should stick to gambling on what is going on now and leave the predictions to people who spend their day trying to asses what is really going on. You know, people like Craemer. (LOL)
So much for the experts. Expert talkers and gamblers maybe.
Only that Jimbo plays with his own money, he's not great at timing though. He now also admits that there is a property bubble in China, and, he hates the FED. Someone should invite him over. Would be some great color commentary about how stupid Benny and Jimmy are...
Barton Biggs is obviously in competition with Goldman's "top 10 trades for 2010" and recent EUR/USD recommendations.
What is keeping this turd up? Its the BB's of the World. You can't take the
'Blue Chips' with you Barton better sell a few. Enjoy while ye may.
Let's make a list of those who fully disclose an up to date track record....before they get to blab away....
Here's the list:
1)
2)
3)
.......................................
Time to hit the reset button....and to totally revamp the entire securities exchange to a RETAIL favored system....
BATS model
Wiki info format
Size limits
No dark pools
No off exchange matching
No uptick short sale rules....size limits yes...
No locates....electronic tag ....shares outstanding...
No minimum account size
New electronic regulator....
4:1 margin
An exchange is just software...and needs to be located in a neutral domicile....ie Switzerland....Hong Kong....Singapore....needs to be a consortium....
Just starts the list....
..................................................
Think about it this way....
Which makes for a better market place ?
1 Billion retail ...pressing notebook buttons....
or a few hundred large....reg capture type businesses....
Barton says buy, buy, buy... but all I could hear was "Chopper, sick balls."
And in the news today we had the 3PM to 4PM ramp up to get the DOW to +100 for the day. Thank you all for your co-operation.
Biggs sounds like a trend reversal leading indicator. Get ready for your shorts.
Biggs has been horrible for at least the last 15 years. He and AJC are battling it out in a different game of "biggest loser".
get long...or short...or long...and get LOUD!!!
Is there an inverse correlation between successful HF managers, and those who talk about themselves the most?
Edit: I should have clarified "success" as defined from the investors' standpoint. From their own these guys can't fail.
Though I love ZH, I can't trade using the info from it....and Farton Figgs is useless.
CHURN , BABY , CHURN
I am shocked to see so much mockery and surprise among the traders here. I have personally went from -20% to +120% net long in my account multiple times this year. I was short twice into the bigger sell-offs this year and had to cover with single digit % losses after a couple weeks. Business as usual.
Who cares if you were wrong the last 4 weeks. The question is can you afford to risk being wrong the next 4 months, whichever direction that may be?
Flipping positions and admitting you're wrong is part of the game. For any trader. Or rather for anyone trading for a living - I say that considering the ridiculous comentary of some of the folks above, it appears many here just enjoy mocking people getting chewed up in the market but have little skin in the game themselves.
Some people on here apparently did not get the QE 2.0 memo issued by the Fed. Benny Boy just added a zero to the S&P E-mini future plunge protection program. Barton got the memo.
EURO buying support mentioned since June continues and further upside is expected.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com