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8.9 Million September SAAR With 64.8% Of Industry Reporting

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The Cash For Clunkers party mess cleanup is getting uglier by the minute. From Citigroup:

September Auto Sales Currently Running at an 8.9 Million Unit SAAR (64.8% reporting)

With 64.8% of the industry now reporting, we are seeing a sales rate for September of 8.9 million units SAAR. This lower pace appears to be heavily influenced by the pay back from the cash-for-clunkers program as luxury brands do not appear to be having the same large drop as more utilitarian vehicle makers.

And this is what disastrous government policy looks like when charted:

 

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Thu, 10/01/2009 - 15:21 | 85544 MountainHawk
MountainHawk's picture

Damn it..wish my AXL October put would have taken off, no dice...

Thu, 10/01/2009 - 15:26 | 85556 Handle with care
Handle with care's picture

Terrific news.  Next month when it stabilizes at 9.0 the market can rally at the fantastic upward trend

Thu, 10/01/2009 - 16:08 | 85611 john bougerel
john bougerel's picture

handle,

 

you are so spot on, stabilizing the data will buoy the market next month

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 12:29 | 86594 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Do you, or anyone on here, have the data/chart for the SAAR going back 20+ years?

Thu, 10/01/2009 - 15:37 | 85571 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

This is really a green shoot. Num Num Num

Thu, 10/01/2009 - 15:44 | 85578 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Maybe I can get a Hummer at discount prices....well it may come in handy when all hell breaks loose.

Thu, 10/01/2009 - 15:57 | 85600 Charles Wilson
Charles Wilson's picture

"We can get a Hummer for you at a discount price.  Which of our Afghani Dealers will you use?  Oh, by the way, all our Kabul Dealers are...ummm...all tied up now.  Might I also suggest a Pakistani dealer?"

 

CW

Thu, 10/01/2009 - 23:04 | 86099 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Maybe I can get a Hummer at discount prices....well it may come in handy when all hell breaks loose.

I wouldn't count on it. Just went car shopping and had "sticker shock" I literally was floored by what dealers are asking for their inventory.

Thu, 10/01/2009 - 16:13 | 85622 I need more cowbell
I need more cowbell's picture

If that is a headfake, it is Barry Sanders-worthy

Thu, 10/01/2009 - 16:01 | 85604 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

damn looks like our green shoots have just vaporized.... HFT turns negative, lookout below.

Thu, 10/01/2009 - 16:02 | 85605 Assetman
Assetman's picture

It appears we ended at 9.2 million units.

Still crappy, but I'm sure someone will make a "green shoot" out of it.

Thu, 10/01/2009 - 16:05 | 85608 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Looks like government almost shut down.

Lots of little revealing goodies in this.

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story.aspx?storyid=20090930...

Thu, 10/01/2009 - 16:16 | 85626 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

With Obama out of the country and the bill needed to be signed before midnight, I have a few probably stupid questions.

1) I was under the impression he must sign the actual physical paper bill passed by the conference committee. If true, that would mean they would need to fly it to Denmark today/night.

2) I guess it doesn't matter if he is out of the country as long as he signs it, correct? He doesn't need to be on US soil when he signs the bill, right?

Just curious how these little things work.

Thu, 10/01/2009 - 16:22 | 85641 I need more cowbell
I need more cowbell's picture

It WOULD matter if he was actually born a US citizen. The "birthers" didn't forsee the unique advantages O'Bummer brings to the table.

Thu, 10/01/2009 - 18:02 | 85807 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Please.  Even if he were born outside of the US he would have the same birth certificate as McCain and my oldest.  A FS Form 45.  Settled case law on that one.

Thu, 10/01/2009 - 19:21 | 85901 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

wrong....his mother was under age at the time
and was unable to confer citizenship when
he was born in kenya - mubrak hussein obama....
his father carried british and kenyan citizenship....

that was law at the time....

the situation which you note developed later
and there are no retroactive provisions in
case law which thankfully there are not because
innumerable issues with ex post facto rulings would
wreak even more havoc than we have with our
jurisprudence...

www.ohamacrimes.com

Thu, 10/01/2009 - 18:07 | 85814 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

CD - "Reasonable" certified true copy of the original until he returns.  And, no matter where.  Even if he is a person holding the office rather than the personification of the office itself. You know, BO, President of the US rather than President of the US, BO. Subtle but potent differences there.

Thu, 10/01/2009 - 16:10 | 85616 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Interesting how the latest SAAR number is nearly smack on the trend it was taking pre-CfC.

They bought nothing with the CfC effort and expense. They didn't even buy themselves time. We are probably exactly where we would have ended up if the linear declining trend in SAAR had been left to continue.

That's what we call signal: The props and sandbags are not holding. Not anywhere. There is nothing firm on which to anchor them. Foundations are erroding faster than the plutocrats can toss in another load of fill. The walls holding back the sea are down, and the sea is coming, and there is no stopping it, and there is no slowing it, there is only getting the hell out of the way. Everything is become desperate hand-waving and sooth-saying because they have no clue what is going on, no clue what to do.

Not the first clue. They are probably already heading for the hills, looting as they go.

The wave that will take us is coming. No -- the wave is already here.

cougar

Thu, 10/01/2009 - 17:00 | 85709 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

C4C = waste of time, $3bn down the shitter,

Thu, 10/01/2009 - 18:08 | 85815 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

True.  Again, past time to leave the south bay cougar.

Thu, 10/01/2009 - 16:16 | 85628 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

and yet, if you plot the current month next to april (9.1), roughly when c-f-c started being discussed, you could argue that this month's print is just a continuation of the basic trend and not a hangover at all.

Thu, 10/01/2009 - 16:21 | 85640 Thoreau
Thoreau's picture

nothing but net hence forth.

Thu, 10/01/2009 - 16:25 | 85646 Ben Graham Redux
Ben Graham Redux's picture

60% increase for the Ford Taurus - can anyone say "fleet purchases"? 

Thu, 10/01/2009 - 17:25 | 85748 MountainHawk
MountainHawk's picture

I haven't seen a new Ford Taurus yet, and I live in a pretty busy area.

Thu, 10/01/2009 - 17:31 | 85758 Green Sharts
Green Sharts's picture

No, the Taurus is a new model and the comparison is against virtually no sales the prior year.  Ford had eliminated the Taurus after ruining it by only introducing a new model every 6-7 years. It became a cheap fleet vehicle.  Then Mulally decided it was stupid to abandon the Taurus name so they switched the Ford 500 to be called a Taurus a year or two ago.  Now they have an actual new Taurus so it's not surprising that sales would jump off a tiny base.

Thu, 10/01/2009 - 18:09 | 85817 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Best SAAR we will see for the remainder of the year.

Thu, 10/01/2009 - 19:05 | 85885 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I am still confused as to why this is a story worthy of ZH attention.

Will we be reading about how toy sales plummet in January after a robust December? Or how there are plenty of spots at romantic restaurants on February 15? Or how about no one wanting to buy stupid hats or noisemakers on January 2nd?

We get it. The government spent $3 billion dollars to support light vehicle sales. We all agree -at least everyone here probably agrees - that this was a waste of money.

Is the contention here that somehow people would buy cars after the the CfC program ended? if so, why? Dealers have limited inventory after the last 2 months. No one is dealing to make the last sale of the month. Why should we expect anything other than some catch up low demand?

Perhaps there are some contributors - most of which rock, btw - that can take over the auto commentary and do some better work. Some suggested topics - why the head of GM's VOLT program just quit because he didnt want to get paid like a GS-9. Or how about: GM will inevitably print a profit in the fourth quarter and how to consider that odd fact. Or the abysmal return on capital for taxpayer investors in these assets? Or how the UAW OWNS A GOLF COURSE called Black Hills in MI...

This fixation on the post CfC sales rates is lame. There is a lot of fodder out there for ZH quality reporting.

Thu, 10/01/2009 - 20:26 | 85969 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

auto production has been a corner stone of
usa industrial activity for a century, thus
reports on its progress are germane to understanding
the health of that industry and the industrial
sector....

some of your suggested topics are of interest some
of them are lame...

cars for clunkers was also lame and is a point too
hard ignore given all of the hoopla which went
with it, along with its imbecility....i think of
it as follow through....

for those with 15 second attention span there is
american idol playing somewhere in the world tonight...

Thu, 10/01/2009 - 23:23 | 86111 Handle with care
Handle with care's picture

For me the fact that the government thought that borrowing from the Chinese to subsidise the purchase of Japanese cars is the way to fix the economy and that when they saw that people would happily take free money they proclaimed it a great success is indicative of the thinking in the Whitehouse and the Capital.

 

Its reassuring to me to know that when I looked at this and thought, of course people take free money when its offered but it doesn't do anything to fix the economy, while every one in authority was acting as if the government had done something worthwhile, that I wasn't stupid or missing something because I'm dumb.

Thu, 10/01/2009 - 23:25 | 86114 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

hey fuckface - go fuck yourself

Thu, 10/01/2009 - 22:33 | 86070 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"September domestic-made sales came in at a 6.7 million annual rate...."

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html

Thu, 10/01/2009 - 22:48 | 86082 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Looks like a V double-dip, but that's not the V CNBS was looking for.

Thu, 10/01/2009 - 23:30 | 86117 Terminal Frost
Terminal Frost's picture

The growing wealth gap in action?  Perhaps.  The SAAR numbers for the winter months should be VERY interested.

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