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91.3% Correlation Between Foodstamp Usage And The S&P, Or How "Wealth Effect" = "Poverty Effect"

Tyler Durden's picture


Or how in kleptocratic America wealth effect poverty effects you.

Presented witout commentary.


And for all those who somehow passed the Captcha yet wonder why just two years of data: March 2009 is when QE1 aka "Wealth Effect" started.


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Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:09 | 1142201 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Silly Tyler. You're mixing up correlation with causality with coincidence with change you can believe in. You do still believe, don't you Tyler?        Tyler?

Hello? I think I got cutoff.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:11 | 1142214 PhotonJohn
PhotonJohn's picture

I just spit coke on my monitor!

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:22 | 1142267 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Send this chart to USA Today, please, and have them put it on the front page. 

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:22 | 1142283 Highrev
Highrev's picture

Ben Bobbin Hood.

Robbing the poor to pay the rich.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:32 | 1142327 Misean
Misean's picture

I thought that was Dennis Moore?

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:33 | 1142331 the mad hatter
the mad hatter's picture


what a fuckhead tool.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 20:34 | 1143481 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Your common Man (Woman) is not completely stupid. 

You are either in the top 2% or you join the bottom and get the goodies - perhaps while going underground and off the "grid".

If you are in the middle trying to pay all the bills, mortgage, insurance premiums, fees, taxes, and live on $2,000 a year disposable income you are a DAMN FOOL.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:56 | 1142458 wandstrasse
wandstrasse's picture

the coke DRINK I hope.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 16:19 | 1142575 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

you apparently have not heard of how phosporic acid in coke affects your body.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 19:48 | 1143337 Coke and Hookers
Coke and Hookers's picture

You are not supposed to put it in your mouth. You whiff it, two fat lines at a time, preferably from a hooker's inner thigh.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:18 | 1142240 Ancona
Ancona's picture

Hunger is very bullish CD. It is the best motivator.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:26 | 1142300 Sucks_to_be_Smart
Sucks_to_be_Smart's picture

For the sake of consistency--

.913 is the correlation coefficient.  I would suggest using the R^2 to explain that 83% of the variability in the "model" can be explained by the independent variable... The way it is now is misleading. 

Also, you are regressing prices.  Which are not stationary, and do not have a an expected long term variance.  Its like regressing random upward sloping lines and saying there's a correlation here...  I would say regress monthly "returns" of the food stamp # of participants versus S&P for an actual statistical process to get this point across. 


The point is valid--how can the S&P keep going up at a time when more and more people are empoverished (if we lived in a sane world), but the presentation is misleading, which is what I wanted to point out. 


Thanks!  Trying to hold ZH to a higher standard than MSM!

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:38 | 1142356 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Thanks!  Trying to hold ZH to a higher standard than MSM!

What you're asking for isn't tough at all. ZH could lie 83% of the time and still maintain a 50% higher standard than the MSM. I only hope Tyler doesn't start regressing his sloping coefficient. Then all bets are off and Marla will probably leave him. :>)

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:56 | 1142454 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

i agree.  clearly we have a liar deficiency here.  and i'm not sure even i'm capable of being more ridiculous either.  still "i prefer my theater in a theater."  unless the term "theater" is another word for "battle space" in which case...

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 16:07 | 1142520 Mark McGoldrick
Mark McGoldrick's picture

I have no proof to back this up, but I get the feeling there has been a notable management change at ZeroHedge.  

I wonder if ZeroHedge acquired funding and sold a portion of itself?  The writing/wit is different. The accuracy of the content is different. The number of daily articles has increased quite dramatically.  I'm beginning to catch inconsistencies between articles.  Etc. 

That being said, I still think ZH is a fantastic website, but the change has been notable.



Wed, 04/06/2011 - 16:16 | 1142554 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

The answer to all your questions, if there actually is a question bundled in among the rhetoric, is "no"

But the next time the difference between R and R2 is indicative of a poison pill, we will let you know.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 16:33 | 1142610 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture


The nerve of some people calling your writing style into question. I'm sure it can all be attributed to your recent authorship of "Truth Blogging for Dummies". I hear you're sending free copies to the editorial staff of every MSM outlet except RT, The Onion and Al Jazeera. Oh, and don't forget The National Enquirer who are right far more often than they are wrong.

BTW how's that regressive sloping coefficient holding up Tyler? Enquiring minds want to know. :>)

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 19:58 | 1143377 whatz that smell
whatz that smell's picture

i blew snot out my beer hole and i think i liked it! thanks, ty.

praise be the bernank! may he keep my beer hole snot happy forever!

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 22:39 | 1143861 Mark McGoldrick
Mark McGoldrick's picture

The nerve of some people calling your writing style into question...

Are you kidding me?  The writing style is markedly different than the original "Tyler".  In an article a few days ago, I found something that resembled a sentence that was so nauseatingly wordy it should have been broken into chapters. By the ninth comma, I had to take a tablespoon of Mylanta just to find my way to the end without getting vertigo and diarrhea.  That was NOT the work of any ZH author who has posted here before.  

And now, suddenly, the number of daily articles jumps by nearly 50%, with inconsistencies among the content.

You don't see this? It's so obvious!

Could it be that your nose is so large it distorts the space/time continuum in front of your eyes? 

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 02:43 | 1144392 Eric Cartman
Eric Cartman's picture

Perhaps you're confusing actual Tyler Durden posts with guest posts? Often, if you're skimming the article it looks just like Tyler's but if you look closely you see it'sitalicized and it's actually a guest post eventhough Tyler's picture and name are at the top.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 07:27 | 1144576 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

Gosh, please, please, don't take offence, because some people in some places, or some people in other places, might, particularly if they had, or had not, the thicker skin to handle all the commas.

So,,,,,,,as the King of Austria said to Motzart,  "I like the music, but there are just to many notes.  The ear can hear only so many notes at one time".


As for me...Tyler I love the complex sentences!  They reflect the real world nicely and I follow them as if it is poetry.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 16:39 | 1142644 Blano
Blano's picture

All of you need to quit talking over my head.  : )

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 16:45 | 1142670 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

damn you!  damn you to heck for more free content!  from now on "it's government lies or nothing!"

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 21:59 | 1143760 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture


Well, I am not really sure about your answer. I would of expected a "No" at the beginning of a sentence as an accurate response for that kind of attack. (Note the capitalization of the first letter). Now obviously ''NO" would not do in this situation, which leads us to the overly understated "no". I think that you are hiding something and wish to downplay the situation and diffuse it with humor. I am putting you on notice that I am "onto you".

Our two weapons are fear and surprise...and ruthless efficiency...


Wed, 04/06/2011 - 16:22 | 1142588 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

Go away Marcy.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 00:03 | 1143758 Mark McGoldrick
Mark McGoldrick's picture


Pardon the delayed response. I had to return some videotapes.  

Then, I had 7pm reservations at Dorsia (impressive, eh?) with three hookers from Budapest, and I simply couldn't cancel. I was more than a little chagrined to be seated adjacent to Andrew Ross Sorkin's table, who happened to be wearing a suit embarrassingly similar to mine - a single breasted, double vented, pin-stripe Domenico Caraceni, made from the wool of an Arctic musk-ox that is only sheered once every three years.  Although I will say that my 7-fold Stephano Ricci tie was the clear winner over his Charvet, and an entire table of derivative traders from Saba sitting near the door confirmed this - including Boaz himself.

Anyway, I'm not quite sure why you insist on riding around on my coattails here at ZeroHedge, but your persistence has grown tiresome to me. I would suggest you cease and desist - that is, if you want to keep your spleen. 

And no, the link below is not me.  I only have threesomes with eastern Europen hookers, and they all sign waivers beforehand.  There is an idea of a Mark McGoldrick; some kind of abstraction. But there is no real me: only an entity, something illusory.*

Lastly, please tell your wife to stop laying on the floor next to her food dish all day. 


*American Psycho



Wed, 04/06/2011 - 17:04 | 1142752 thedrickster
Wed, 04/06/2011 - 17:20 | 1142801 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

Unfortunately, it probably is. See if there is another pedo on America's Most Wanted named "Robot Trader"

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 23:24 | 1144020 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Chris Hansen is rumored to be wanting to do a sit down with Robo.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 19:41 | 1143324 LudwigVon
LudwigVon's picture

That, is funny.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 21:38 | 1143698 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Either that or the head of GS's prop trading desk.

That's much worse.  Much, much worse.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 20:57 | 1143583 Eric Cartman
Eric Cartman's picture

I think Marla did leave him... I haven't noticed any updates from her =(

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 01:06 | 1144286 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

She's on holiday in Goa, or so I'm told.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 16:03 | 1142499 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

"how can the S&P keep going up at a time when more and more people are empoverished"?

It's a necessary precondition for hyperinflation.  The government masks the declining wealth of the lower classes by giving out free bread and they fund the program by printing money, rather than taxing those who hold the real wealth.  Once they start down this road, there is only ever one outcome, as to take away the bread would lead to an uprising... and the wealthy simply move their money into real assets to avoid the shaving of the coinage.  The ones who suffer the most are those in the middle..

It is astonishing to watch this all happen in real time.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 17:43 | 1142865 cossack55
cossack55's picture

I think I read on ZH a few weeks ago that the Zimbabwe stock exchange reached its all time high at the same time they were printing $100 Trillion dollar bills. Yes?

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 19:53 | 1143366 XPolemic
XPolemic's picture

It is astonishing to watch this all happen in real time.

Yes, I have been studying stock market crashes, Empire collapses, corporate failures and end-cycle dynamics since 1987, and I never thought I would see an Empire collapse in my lifetime. It's a very exciting time, now that we have the technology to observe it real time.

I should begin on my book, and update it with current events as they transpire. Here is my thesis:

The cycle of human affairs can be measured by the following:

What is the cost of a mistake in your society?

If the cost of a mistake is high, then your society is at the beginning of the cycle, because only the extremely cautious and capable make it to the top.

If the cost of a mistake is low, then your society is at the end of the cycle, because if the cost of a mistake is low, then the reckless and incompetent will slowly rise to the top (because we tend to admire the reckless, in the same way we slow down to look at a car wreck).

When the cost of a mistake is low, it implies abundant resources. For example, take the world of soccer. In poor South American countries, if a good player gets a serious injury early in life, it can derail or terminate their soccer career, but in the West, with abundant medical care, that player can be treated and carry on.

Likewise for the car industry in the United States. Through political corruption, the big car makers effectively drove out competition, thus making their business much easier. If an executive or CEO makes a costly mistake, the effect is dampened by the gouging of their customers through their oligopoly position. Hence the incompetent rise to the top.

The same is true of countries as a whole. The US Empire has been collecting Pax Americana from the rest of the world through the petro-dollar tax for ~60 years. This free money has flowed into the financial system, giving rise to a slew of idiots in investment banks. The financial system funds the military-industrial complex, which in turn enforces the petro-dollar Pax Americana. But it also provides cheap gasoline, which in turn supports fuel ineffecient vehicles, which are a speciality of the US car manufacturers (every other country in the world pays full price for gasoline).

The people who have been running the financial system, the auto-companies, the military-industrial complex, the white house, have been making mistake after mistake, but because of the massive surplus of wealth, the effect of these mistakes has been mitigated ... until now.

The final part of my thesis involves the tipping point. This is when the system is so completely full of incompetent morons, that the mistakes start accelerating and compounding, until everything the people in charge do is counter-productive, and the system itself starts to break down.

What happens after the system starts to break down is unpredictable, because while the rise of Empires follows a fairly logical progression, their collapse can take a number of different forms.

1. There can be a slow decay/decline while a new power rises.

2. There can be a catastrophic war with an external enemy.

3. There can be a bloody civil war.

4. There can be a relatively peaceful splintering of the Empire. In the case of the US, I would estimate it would splinter into 3 economic powers. West (California and Washington state), Mid-South (Southern and Mid-Western states), and East (the East Coast excluding Florida).

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 01:16 | 1144309 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

Never pre-suppose a complex structure based on a single simple premise, especially one as vague and arbitrary as a "mistake". One man's mistake is another's serendipidity. The goddess of destuction assures us that nothing can be created without destroying something. Yin and yang, none of us are flawless, the black is embedded in the white and the white within the black.

Your work is derivative, google krondratiev

and Igor Panarin


Thu, 04/07/2011 - 01:40 | 1144346 XPolemic
XPolemic's picture

Never pre-suppose a complex structure based on a single simple premise, especially one as vague and arbitrary as a "mistake".

All complex structures are based on simple premises, but not usually a single one. And the term 'mistake' is only arbitary if you don't know the intended outcome of the actions taken.

he goddess of destuction assures us that nothing can be created without destroying something. Yin and yang, none of us are flawless, the black is embedded in the white and the white within the black.

Did you write that yourself or do you have a software AI that spits out cliches?

Your work is derivative

Um ... duh. All works are derivative. But thanks for the heads up on Krondratiev and Panarin, I hadn't heard of either of them, but they both look interesting.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 02:33 | 1144386 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

Don't be pissed cause I write better than you. It's just practice. No worries on the cites mate, Kondratiev's life story is fascinating in and of itself, regardless of the brilliance of his work. If you find Panarin interesting, check out Dmitry Orlov:

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 07:48 | 1144608 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

Yes, but have both of you considered the affects and effects of that which most discount as non-sense?

Neo: I suppose the most obvious question is, how can I trust you?
The Oracle: Bingo. It is a pickle. No doubt about it. The bad news is there's no way if you can really know whether I'm here to help you or not, so it's really up to you. You just have to make up you on damned mind to either accept what I'm going to tell you, or reject it.


May I suggest that you consider this into the mix, you might be surprised how 'spot on' this is as you read it...most written a very long time ago.  It might just be #5 on your list of out-comes.

Sanja Peric,

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 09:09 | 1144792 XPolemic
XPolemic's picture

Don't be pissed cause I write better than you. It's just practice. 

You are projecting.

Yes, many people have written about the coming collapse of the American Empire, but I am not so much interested in the specific case as I am in the general dynamics of end-cycles. In this particular case, the United States, those of us interested in these end-cycles are able to observe it happen in real time, rather than in retrospect, as one had to with previous Empire-ending events.

The current velocity of information allows this real-time observation, combined with what will be the largest economic collapse in history (there may have been equally large collapses pre-history, but one cannot be sure), it's going to be quite a show.

So far, the only thing you have added to this conversation is other people's ideas. Do you have any of your own?

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 16:46 | 1142683 X. Kurt OSis
X. Kurt OSis's picture

This is the most obnoxious post I have ever read.  Spare us the cut and paste job from the Level II CFA book.  There is a reason why you obviously failed the first time around.  You spew the mathematical concept, but can't grasp how to apply it.

This is honestly so stupid, I can't craft a response.  If I wasn't so taken aback by the obnoxiousness of this, my reply would much more witty.

The purpose of a regression analysis would be to model an predicted outcome (GDP goes up by 1% so my company's sales should by X in the next quarter).  TD is not trying to create a predictive model, moron.  Proof of a highly correlated relationship is all that we need to see for the purpose of this post.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 17:28 | 1142823 d00daa
d00daa's picture

Fuck the junker, this is absolutely spot on.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 18:24 | 1143051 X. Kurt OSis
X. Kurt OSis's picture

That post was soooo HOMOskedastic, fo reallz.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 02:50 | 1144395 Eric Cartman
Eric Cartman's picture

Yet you're responding... 

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 23:39 | 1144040 DrLamer
DrLamer's picture

To Sucks_to_be_Smart:

Nope. That Your explanation, Sir, is misleading. And ZH (or better call it FightClub, "FICLU" more correct) is right. And here is why:

you are regressing prices.  Which are not stationary,

No prices are "stationary". There are no "stationary" prices in this world. The word "stationary" can only used to points in time of a *RANDOM* "stationary process".

No trader in the world is pressing keys of a keyboard *RANDOMLY* (except POMO NYFed trading desk). There is no a Nobel Prize economist who showed up that establishing prices is a random process. There is no proved ssumption that normal math stat methods can be applied to economy DIRECTLY and AUTOMATICALLY.

Its like regressing random upward sloping lines and saying there's a correlation here...

You mixed up various stages of math stat investigation. Math methods of stat are proving HIPOTHESIS. And how the building the hipotesis itself starts? It normally starts from (90% cases) *visual observation* of linear or of non-linear relationships (log, x^2, various scales, various PERIODS, etc) and graphs. You, sir is talking about further PROOF of hipothesis, FICLU is talking about START, I repeat, START of building a hipothesis. Which can (or can not) futher be proved by normal stat (by conventional correlation), or slightly non-normal stat (by so-called robust methods), or by pure (non-Gauss) economic stat (by so-called  non-parametric stat methods, Spearman method etc).


Thu, 04/07/2011 - 07:46 | 1144600 Variance Doc
Variance Doc's picture

Well you’re not that smart after all.  Here, the use of the correlation coefficient is perfectly fine.  It is a measure of the linear association between the two variables and that is what Tyler is using it for.  Furthermore, r^2 is the coefficient of determination and it IS NOT the variability of the model due to the predictor, it IS the amount of variability in the response due to the regression; that is, the amount of variation in the response that can be predicted by the regression.


As long as I’m here, let’s dispense with more of your nonsense.  Tyler is treating the sample as a population and running a regression; that is perfectly ok.  Since he/she is NOT making any statistical inference, the constant variance assumption is not important at all.  Stationary is not important here either, since Tyler is not treating the data as a time series.  They are simply running a simple linear regression to understand the relationship between the two variables.  I’m not sure what you mean by “…expected long term variance.”, but I really never understood what C+ students are talking about either.


The analysis presented above is perfectly fine, it’s just that you really don’t understand enough statistics.  That’s the problem.


Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:36 | 1142351 willien1derland
willien1derland's picture

CD....Paging CD, Please pick up the White Courtesy Phone for an important message from President Obama..and by the way please bring some change that his campaign can believe in....(I am certain that I will be asked to work from home as my 'laughter explosion' has frightened the troops - thanks for the post - I needed that!) 

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 16:46 | 1142685 covert
covert's picture

super funny. is there really any connection?


Wed, 04/06/2011 - 17:00 | 1142739 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

You gotta believe first. There's always a connection when you really really really believe in that hope and change thingy. I'm talking return of messiah belief in case you need a reference. I think America can handle that.

Hell, we believe we'll get laid Friday night if only we would use Crest toothpaste and any modern day version of Old Spice.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 17:23 | 1142805 Dont Taze Me Bro
Dont Taze Me Bro's picture

Sounds like you don't get laid much (without paying for it that is).

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 18:50 | 1143175 gbh
gbh's picture

Sounds like you don't know CD. I reckon he could walk into any disco and get laid in 5 mins if he wanted to. He has an awesome intellect and, fortunately for his local female population, chooses not to abuse his mastery of human psychology. However, CD does not need me to rebutt your misinformed allegations as he is more than capable of providing a fatal riposte, if only he weren't asleep or otherwise disinclined to stoop to your level.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 17:26 | 1142814 HedgeFundLIVE
HedgeFundLIVE's picture

Paul Ryan wants to put our country on an allowance : blog

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 13:27 | 1145914 Nnthnt1
Nnthnt1's picture

agreed. 90% is pretty weak to begin with.


2nd Causality is just not there

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:11 | 1142204 Rick Blaine
Rick Blaine's picture we gave food stamps to EVERYONE...regardless of income...then the S&P would be at like 8000!

EVERYONE would be rich!

Team O is probably working on such a scheme this very second.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:11 | 1142205 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Poverty is Wealth.

1984 style.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 16:46 | 1142681 DoctoRx
DoctoRx's picture


(# of yrs since the book was published)

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:13 | 1142217 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Kleptomaniac Monetary Feudalists!

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:13 | 1142218 chet
chet's picture

And I wonder who is materially benifiting from that S&P effect.  Not 44 million people equal to the food stamp users, that's for sure.

In other words, how many new people on food stamps for every one person enjoying the good times in the stock market?

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 16:52 | 1142707 TraderMark
TraderMark's picture

It really does not matter.  What % or what # benefit does not matter, it is all about WHO benefits.  That is the group policy is run for.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:14 | 1142232 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

wonder if obama will use this in campaign commercials

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:16 | 1142235 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

food stamps are a sort of income in a very strage way

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:20 | 1142258 Dagny Taggart
Dagny Taggart's picture

oooo, don't say that. They'll tax it.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:29 | 1142326 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

They are planning to tax food stamps, just read that story as well. Miracles, bitchez!

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:57 | 1142471 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

miracle whip ..bitchezzzzzz

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:15 | 1142237 Black Forest
Black Forest's picture

A two-year sample is statistically insignificant.


Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:19 | 1142259 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

I think we all know where we can find over 40 million people that would dispute your comment about this being "insignificant".

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:22 | 1142264 JohnG
JohnG's picture

91.3% correlation is.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:36 | 1142350 Black Forest
Black Forest's picture

Expand the sample period back to 2007, or 2004, and re-calculate that correlation coefficient.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 19:08 | 1143232 Matte_Black
Matte_Black's picture

Shit happens. This shit happened in 2008.

You're pissed because Tyler didn't attach helium ballons to the numbers. Your point of view is irrelevent.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 18:34 | 1143111 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

And the correlation would probably be even higher if they weren't keeping out felons.  (I mean out of SNAP not out of the S&P)

Ineligibility Reasons:

People who are convicted of drug trafficking, who are running away from a felony warrant, who break Food Assistance Program rules on purpose, who are noncitizens without a qualified status, and some students in colleges or universities are not eligible for food assistance benefits.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:28 | 1142302 sawyer
sawyer's picture

24 months is not.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 18:06 | 1142964 dbTX
dbTX's picture

Ask a single Mother of two, I know one; 24 months is more than enough

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 19:59 | 1143380 XPolemic
XPolemic's picture

A two-year sample is statistically insignificant.

Interesting that you should claim that.

Banks use a 2 year period to calculate Historical VaR, and THEY claim that's enough data points to calculate the 97% confidence interval.


Wed, 04/06/2011 - 20:46 | 1143523 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

Significantly 14% of people in the US have insignificant cash, savings or income to be Nutritionally Rich.

or in laymans terms ...... 14 out of 100 US people are so broke they can't feed themselves.

Quantitavely ease yourself out of that ! It is hope and change I have seen become an increasing reality.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 08:02 | 1144623 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

14% is another made up number, just like unemployment, and every other number from this government.

I know plenty of people who are NOT making it and could get food stamps but are not.  Why? Well it seems that they feel that doing so is a shamefull and will hurt America.  Guess taking money from the taxpayers thru POMO, TARP, etc is not.

I'll bet if you were to know the real number it would be 20 some %.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:18 | 1142242 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

the most essential element necessary for the existence of great wealth is great poverty. therefore, the correlation in the rise of food stamps and the rise of the stock market makes perfect sense.

as we all know, wealth is never lost, it is merely transferred. these charts simply show where the transfer is coming from and going to.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:58 | 1142470 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

it does have a "feel good" effect.  i agree with that.  i mean "i don't agree with that"...but i do.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 16:07 | 1142524 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

Fine! Those who get food stamps are now able to get stock stamps.

Lets keep the bull run going to further dilute the diluted.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 16:26 | 1142600 chet
chet's picture


“the comfort of the rich depends upon an abundant supply of the poor.” - Voltaire


It's a shame that Marx is so villainized in America.  Society could benefit from familiarity of his insights on what capital and labor really are. 

His policy prescriptions (communism and the like) were bunk.  But some of his thoughts on capital and labor are sound.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 16:58 | 1142735 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Marx actually wrote to Lincoln and received a response from none other than Charles Francis Adams himself.  The response was far from hostile.  Of course "there was a Civil War raging at the time" so this particular form of "hostility" shall we say was not "foreign" as we make it so much appear today.  Clearly we will never have a discussion on violence in America.  Shall i interest you in some "tripe" about "the Rights of Man"?

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:17 | 1142250 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Feudal lords, guild masters, and peasants.

Everything old is new again.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:18 | 1142255 SDRII
SDRII's picture

Sell side dingbat on the blowhorn from Barclays saying the asian dollar index breaking out is bullish for the likes of the mercantilist exporters while circling the previous peak in 08.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:19 | 1142260 tek77blu
tek77blu's picture

Bob Chapman interview today on gold, silver, and mining stocks:

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:21 | 1142271 franzpick
franzpick's picture

The Anarchy Effect.

Forever Food Stamps.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:24 | 1142279 surfwon
surfwon's picture

they will collect taxes on the food stamps and call it income

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:23 | 1142285 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Banks stocks are ripping upward today.

I won't dare short anything when bank stocks are not leading the decline.

Smells like huge rotation out of the IBD Mo-Mo Monkey names and into CSCO, MSFT, INTC, etc.

Oil stocks are being sold to buy bank stocks.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:28 | 1142318 Highrev
Highrev's picture


And it looks like a legit breakout in the EUR/USD.

This is not PG-13. If this hurts sensibilities absolutely do not, I repeat, DO NOT look at the weeklies (that's right, that's in plural, as in just about any weekly you look at) or the montlies for that matter.


Wed, 04/06/2011 - 17:53 | 1142908 d00daa
d00daa's picture


Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:31 | 1142332 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Will this shift continue tomorrow, Robo?  And what is its underlying message to us?  As well as its fundamental cause? 

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 19:51 | 1143352 LudwigVon
LudwigVon's picture

Regarding Robo there is always an...

...underlying message


This is exactly why one should never discount his gifts.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:32 | 1142336 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

Yeah and look at how JPM shot through the roof as soon as the greedy bastards on Wall St. realized how much they are going to profit on the SNAP revision and steal from the taxpayers. The Wall St. CRONIES just continue to laugh and profit at the demise of the middle class. My suggestion for anyone living in the Hamptons? Get out of the war zone before the battle begins. Like Gerald Celente says, when people lose everything they simply just lose it and when they do my guess is the CRONIES will be enemy number one!

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:40 | 1142367 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

That "silver short" must be working out very badly for JPM today, LOL.   

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:25 | 1142288 Abby Normal
Abby Normal's picture

Combine the rise in food stamps with the depletion of State's unemployment funds - 30 states now borrowing from Fed to pay the unemployed & borrowing to pay food stamps...

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:24 | 1142295 themosmitsos
themosmitsos's picture

Tyler, I'm loathe to correct you, but I believe you meant "in kleptocratic America wealth effect *poverties* you?" ;)

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:58 | 1142476 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Wealth effect poverty, effects you'. Seems good to me. But your version is good as well.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 18:39 | 1143136 dugorama
dugorama's picture

actually, "welath effect poverty affects you"

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:26 | 1142304 Brokenarrow
Brokenarrow's picture

Food stamps and poverty always seem to be a source of amusement on this site.

I guess if you have  $80K on deposit at etrade one feels rich?

See how "funny" all this is after living on the street for a couple months.

btw: if you think for a second you can "out trade" the street. Or, if you bot a little gld and slv, and think you're smart? US not......believe me.

We are all a short distance from going down the toilet in this sewer.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:58 | 1142465 willien1derland
willien1derland's picture

Agreed BA - this is a tragedy & I do not think anyone who posts here takes it lightly- IMO ZH participants make light of the SNAP increase in a similar way that they would indicate that the S&P will go to 5,000 overnight - I totally appreciate your concern & agree with you that we, collectively, must take actions to address this issue immediately, or their by the Grace of God go I (US) - unfortunately, the actions of the US Government promotes plutocracy & oppresses 'We the People' - Keep the Faith & Work ardently to promote change..

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 18:48 | 1143174 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

I do realize that Titanic's life boats were also emblazoned with the name Titanic.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 01:22 | 1144325 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

So were the cocktail glasses and ashtrays. That doesn't mean you can't take them to the lifeboats. Fer god's sake, even in tragedy there must be a little civility.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 19:28 | 1143287 linrom
linrom's picture

Actually they have the same mentality as the bankers.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 23:37 | 1144062 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Put some FRNs where yer mouth is:


Wed, 04/06/2011 - 16:22 | 1142582 JohnG
JohnG's picture

Don't you lecture me you sniveling little snot.

I lived in a tent, literally, for two fucking years.  Only way I got out of it was working like hell 25 hours a day 8 days a week.

Worked my ass off.

Why can't anyone do the same?

Really, WHY?

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 16:29 | 1142604 SRV - ES339
SRV - ES339's picture

So you were for the poor before you were against the poor?

Well... there goes that presidential bid!

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 16:47 | 1142694 JohnG
JohnG's picture

No, not for or against the poor. I never "took advantage" of welfare, at aht age I didn't even know there was such a thing.  Never even thought about it, just worked and ate a lot of ramen noodles.

My point is that one CAN work thier way to prosperity if one is willing.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 17:02 | 1142747 chet
chet's picture

Were you laid off at age 57?  Did you have a family of five to take care of?  Where you missing a leg?

Everyone's situation is different.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 17:12 | 1142765 JohnG
JohnG's picture

Started my first business at 29.

Actually 6, four kids.

Ever worked with the disabled?  Much can be done.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 18:29 | 1143075 chet
chet's picture

My point was:  did you have four kids when you were living in a tent?

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 19:12 | 1143247 TIMMAYYY
TIMMAYYY's picture

posh noodles on their birthday

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 17:04 | 1142748 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

got kids? have any disabilities?

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 18:45 | 1143147 JohnG
JohnG's picture

I served on this jury for the original trial:

This criminal's right leg was amputated above the knee as a child.  He could walk just fine.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 17:14 | 1142779 TIMMAYYY
TIMMAYYY's picture

that the life i want for my kids, and their kids...loads of 'ramen noodle'

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 02:53 | 1144401 Eric Cartman
Eric Cartman's picture

+1. lol

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 01:29 | 1144330 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

Tent? We used to dream of living in a tent.


We lived for six months in a rolled up newspaper in a septic tank.


Wed, 04/06/2011 - 16:22 | 1142587 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

Sure we feel smart if we have a little PM. When it goes up we feel better, satisfying our surface pleasures. " making a good trade should feel good, too".

It brings some of us closer to success within reality. But, below the surface satisfaction, deep down, most of the ZH knows we are likely to see suffering beyond we have ever known.

Unless, you are from a starving nation in africa. The good days are passing fast as we get kicked off the top of mountain. We are on borrowed time, and the interest payment is overdue.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 17:02 | 1142743 Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

If you have $80k to trade, you are probably in at least the top 20% of Americans.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:28 | 1142306 DonnieD
DonnieD's picture

Reject Ho

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:27 | 1142309 Whatta
Whatta's picture

My S&P 500 "Victory Garden" is growing well. As long as they don't tax seeds, rainwater, bending over to pull weeds, least I can feed myself.

SNAP to it bitchez.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:38 | 1142366 OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture


 They'll have you bent over all right! Only not to pick weeds! Nine out of ten are bent as far over as they can be now. Only a little more to go... come on now we know you can do it! Cough it up.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:43 | 1142390 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Bend over' is a key component of Obamanomics!

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:31 | 1142324 somethingelse
somethingelse's picture

here comes the SNAP Bubble!

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:32 | 1142337 Pepe
Pepe's picture

The old concept of "reserve army of workers " acquires new relevance when

added to the modern concept of "downward wage equalization"

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:35 | 1142343 john milton
john milton's picture

usa is three hot mealstamps away from revolution

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 16:07 | 1142508 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"Paradise Lost" indeed.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 16:59 | 1142740 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

How many budget busters in DC have suggested reducing SNAP payments?


Wonder why?

I think the "R" word you used is the answer.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:34 | 1142347 99er
Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:37 | 1142353 Misean
Misean's picture

Free profits on wall street, free food for main street. What's not to love here?


Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:40 | 1142368 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Stealth entitlement.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:39 | 1142373 truont
truont's picture

how in kleptocratic America wealth effect poverty effects you.

"I like how the wealth effect affects my effects!"

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:42 | 1142381 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

In Fascomerica, food stamp stamps YOU!

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:40 | 1142382 Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

Durden, in his last piece on SNAP, said the American population was at 330 million.  So let's do a little back of the envelop math:

If 44 million on SNAP correlates to S&P500 1334, 330 million, or the entire population, equates to S&P500 ... 10,000!

Indeed, the nation must seek, no, must demand, that it impoverish itself; as it is the certain path to everlasting wealth effect prosperity!


Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:40 | 1142384 tewkatz
tewkatz's picture

Doesn't that make sense?

The more the money is printed/debased, the more people on the borderline of poverty fall into poverty. 

The more money is printed, the higher stocks go for all the reasons posted on ZH.

I would be surprised if there wasn't a close correlation.

An earlier article on here mentioned a 30% haircut by lenders and savers was needed...I'd take one right now if it would stop this brittleboned financial breakdance and give my kids a chance for stereotypical American Dream again.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 01:35 | 1144341 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

Obviously poverty is a lack of wealth. The more poor people, means the relatively few wealthy hold most of the wealth. Thus the more poor people there are, the fewer wealthy people there are, BUT the wealthy are wealthier since they hold so many more assets than the poor.

Eventually one person will own everything, and everyone else nothing. It will probably be Lloyd Blankfein. He will win it all from the Rothschilds in a double cross involving a massive CDO.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:42 | 1142385 Head for the Hills
Head for the Hills's picture

War is Peace.

Freedom is slavery.

Poverty is wealth.


Oh, and Big Brother is watching you for Damn Sure!


Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:43 | 1142388 ThreeTrees
ThreeTrees's picture

Honestly, I'm surprised the correlation is that tight.  It's fully expected, but still shocking to see.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:44 | 1142396 spekulatn
spekulatn's picture

Brilliant stuff, Mr. Durden.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:46 | 1142415 stoverny
stoverny's picture

Massive transfer of wealth from the middle class to the uber-rich so they can buy yachts.

Massive transfer of wealth from the middle class to the poor so they can buy food.

Massive numbers of middle class become poor, which leads to...

(rinse, repeat)



Wed, 04/06/2011 - 17:40 | 1142860 velobabe
velobabe's picture

just a heads up, tiger woods has put his yacht up for sale, 20M i think asking price.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 21:03 | 1143606 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

Tigers in a little recession of his own (making)

Cost him 20 asking 25. Thats inflation for you

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:48 | 1142426 Ponziconomy
Ponziconomy's picture

Betcha gun sales, in dollars or outright units, would correlate nicely as well. Can't find that index on my Bloomberg, though.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:52 | 1142445 linrom
linrom's picture

Tyler, you're making a joke out of ZH. Your pronouncement are getting more ridiculous. Try this regression excercise from 1999, and let's see how well this works out for you.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 16:06 | 1142477 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture



Wed, 04/06/2011 - 16:09 | 1142531 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You miss the point.  The correlation has been created by the government and the Fed.  This isn't some kind of natural phenomenon that Tyler just discovered.  It just points out the ridiculousness of these markets by contrasting them with real indicators of poverty.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 16:13 | 1142540 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

This is since the start of QE and the Wealth Effect rhetoric. 

Back in 1999 central planning was merely a drop in Bernanke's yet to be assembled money printer.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 16:37 | 1142639 SRV - ES339
SRV - ES339's picture

Don't sweat it Tyler... just a bunch of pseudo statisticians trying to show how brilliant they are... your point is valid, and very important... they'll come around soon enough, when the "effect" reaches the lower middle class.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 17:52 | 1142904 SME MOFO
SME MOFO's picture

Hey, wait a minute, I'm an actual, credentialed, statistician.  I likey the chart porn.  This is a good 'un.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 17:07 | 1142756 X. Kurt OSis
X. Kurt OSis's picture

Another one, huh?  See my post above.  We got a lot of level II candidates getting ready to fail the June exam 'round here.



The stability of correlations has more to do with the excess kurtosis of the distribution.  In melt ups and melt downs, everything is perfectly correlated.

Watch out for those fat tails, bitchez.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 15:55 | 1142459 newbee
newbee's picture

I put myself through college with lots of stupid jobs like bagging groceries.  No big deal, I'm not the only one.  But man it would piss me off no end that I was livin' on mac and cheese while paying taxes to some folks on food stamps bringing home steak and shrimp which I have to bag and carry out  this stuff for 'em.  Don't get me wrong, lots of folks need the help.  But pleeeeez ... when are we gonna strip the leaches out of the system??

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 16:05 | 1142511 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

they have to be really bad off, lazy or great at lying.  My retired parents tried to get SNAP and since they get a whole $1,200 a month they aren't allowed..

no clue how pathetic you have to be to get SNAP..  it's more than just an asset check

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