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93 Trading Days Till New All Time Highs In The S&P 500

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Using the Birinyi technical methodology of market "extrapolation", and recreating our "analysis" from last week, we observe that following the micro dip observed yesterday (which happened to be the second largest since late November), the S&P is on track to surpass its all time highs right on schedule: June 27, 2011, or in 93 trading days. This should be just around the time when QE2 ends, and passes the baton to QE3, as neither the unemployment situation, nor the housing double dip will have improved by then. And in the unlikely case that the Fed does not resume QEeasing, the plan seems to be to get the market to its new all time high at the moment when the rug is pulled from underneath it.

 


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Wed, 02/16/2011 - 17:18 | Link to Comment FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

I don't care how high the FED pushes this pile of dung up... you've got more chance of seeing a pork sausage in every one of the Bernank's orifices than me buying any slice of these crooked markets.

Gold and silver for me, they are the truth in a sea of lies.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 17:30 | Link to Comment william the bastard
william the bastard's picture

But Daddy, Daddy will there be any dips between here and there?

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 17:35 | Link to Comment DB Cooper
DB Cooper's picture

Momma's gone keep baby cozy and warm

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZ8YdCJLPYw

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 17:48 | Link to Comment whatz that smell
whatz that smell's picture

..."93 bottles of bull on the wall... 93 bottles of bull... take one down, pass it around... 92 bottles of bull on the wall"...

count down to rug pull, bitchez!

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 21:05 | Link to Comment JethroBodien
JethroBodien's picture

I don't know about the rest of you but I'm shorting this sucker at 2000...

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 17:46 | Link to Comment TomJoad
TomJoad's picture

I agree, I'm one of the stupid stupid stupid idiots that got "all out" of the market in 2008 just off the bottom. There is no way I am getting back in to what is unquestionably the largest criminal enterprise in the history of the world. I don't care how many "Profits" I miss.

From here to the puff of butterfly/swan generated wind that blows down this Ponzi house of cards, it is land, PM's, and as few sidelined FRN's as I can get by with.

Hopefully something cracks soon since my Father in Law investment broker has my wife almost convinced that I am some kind of libertarian lunatic, and can't believe I made her reallocate everything out of equities and this "Marvelous, 'can't lose' stock market" 

Not that I wish for the collapse of the US economy just to prove my FIL wrong, but you haven't met the guy, so I kind of do.

 

Jump! You Fuckers!

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 18:16 | Link to Comment treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

Its lonely no doubt but you're not wrong, you're just early (as am I).

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 19:37 | Link to Comment The Grip
The Grip's picture

TJ - If your FIL was born in the USA, and is still working, then he is of a generation that seen nary a day of true economic suffering. What the fuck does the marginal buck he is pumping get you anyways? A vacation or two? A used Boxster?

Your principal is protected to the extent possible, and that matters to people who will live into the next decades.

You're the one who is risk averse or risk neutral, the only two appropriate postures for those of us without trust funds.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 21:09 | Link to Comment JethroBodien
JethroBodien's picture

I hear you my friend. I will get a sick sense of satisfaction when it all comes tumbling down.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 17:19 | Link to Comment jobs1234
jobs1234's picture

The best part is, thats my birthday. What a present!

And I am happy to see bankers doing so well for themselves, they deserve it!

 


NEW YORK (Reuters) - New York City's bank tax collections ran 48 percent above a year-ago, one of several taxes whose encouraging performance might give Mayor Michael Bloomberg some extra cash to spend in next year's budget.

"Bankers have done alright; that has been a pleasant surprise," said a source familiar with the data, one day before the mayor unveils his new budget plan.

New York City's economy rests on the shoulders of the financial industry and the rise in this tax bodes well for the banking industry. The source, whose back of the envelope calculations suggest the city might have an extra $150 million of revenue from several taxes, requested anonymity.

Bloomberg, who warns he might have to lay off thousands of workers because the state is slashing its aid by about $2 billion, raised his forecast for the bank tax in November. Even with the 48 percent increase, revenue is about $20 million below Bloomberg's forecast, the source said.

Fiscal monitors give Bloomberg high marks for repeatedly slashing spending to close a string of multibillion deficits. They fault him for negotiating overly generous pay packages with city workers.

Though the city is one of the nation's biggest issuers of municipal bonds and its approximately $65 billion budget tops that of a number of states, New York City pays lower interest rates on its debt than fiscally-stressed states, such as Illinois, California and New Jersey.

The mayor has recently taken a much harder line, demanding teachers relinquish benefits of seniority and police officers give up a $12,000 yearly payment for retirees that he calls a "Christmas bonus."

While the securities industry was exceptionally profitable in 2010, with the state comptroller saying it could be the second most profitable year on record, the city has yet to reap a bonanza in income tax payments from high-flying bankers and brokers.

"The income tax is only up about 2.5 percent," said the source..

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/NYC-bank-tax-revenue-shoots-rb-550934391.html;_ylt=AvaWFFMeKzWKyIr9ZxXQBKW7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1dWFmbmpnBHBvcwM3BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNueWNiYW5rdGF4cmU-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 17:19 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

June 27, 2011.

This day is so important I propose we name it in advance.

My first recommendation is Birinyi Ruler Day but that's only because I think we need more rules in general.

Anyone else?

 

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 17:19 | Link to Comment jobs1234
jobs1234's picture

Kevin Sack Day

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 17:20 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Perfect.

Gas should hit $4 a gallon just in time for the Yanks to celebrate Independence Day. Which is just a tad ironic.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 17:25 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Fireworks are a big part of our Independance celebration. And $4/gal would probably create some fireworks.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 17:32 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

By then the Brent/WTIC arb spread will be $70.

FYI it is about $20 today.

Must be that a dollar is worth more in Texas than it is in London?

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 17:35 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Most Texans would say it is. And then they would mention something (seemingly) off-topic about guns.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 17:21 | Link to Comment MiddleMeThis
MiddleMeThis's picture

Okay, just a tiny bit off topic, (but it's all related isn't it?)  This quote from Hillary today is just priceless; damn priceless:

In response to protests in the Middle East...

Hillary Clinton calls the swelling outbreak of protests as an "historic moment" in a speech today in Washington DC:

"Across the Middle East today we see people calling on governments to be more open, more accountable, more responsive. People want a stronger voice in their own affairs. It is in the interests of governments to answer these demands, to reflect the will of their own people."

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 17:26 | Link to Comment Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

"Across the Middle East today we see people calling on governments to be more open, more accountable, more responsive. People want a stronger voice in their own affairs. It is in the interests of governments to answer these demands, to reflect the will of their own people; except in the USA."

There. Fixed that for ya...

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 17:24 | Link to Comment DeweyLeon
DeweyLeon's picture

And the dollar will be at what by then?

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 17:25 | Link to Comment BeerGoggles
BeerGoggles's picture

can we name it after the curry instead? Biryani

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 17:25 | Link to Comment The Axe
The Axe's picture

Image a tiny one day 40 point drop...since Nov!!!   Why can't we go to the moon...

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 17:26 | Link to Comment 10kby2k
10kby2k's picture

 

After I read this shit I end up pissed off and have become way more aggressive at the 24 hour fitness nightly basketball open gym. Bruises, scratches everywhere. Thanks Tyler

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 17:26 | Link to Comment The Rock
The Rock's picture

Counterfeiting (QE) is a helluva drug.

 

 

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 17:30 | Link to Comment Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

QEasing? I feel  QEasy

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 17:33 | Link to Comment IEVI
IEVI's picture

Quantitative Easing

QEasing

QuEasing

Queasy    /?kwizi/ Show Spelled[kwee-zee] Show IPA
–adjective, quea·si·er, quea·si·est.
1.
inclined to or feeling nausea, as the stomach, a person, etc.; nauseous; nauseated.
2.
tending to cause nausea; nauseating.
3.
uneasy or uncomfortable, as feelings, the conscience, etc.

 

Yep..that's about right.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 17:33 | Link to Comment 10kby2k
10kby2k's picture

 

On cnbc they are even saying thsat traders feel QE is at the basis of this equity elevation, how to play the inflation issue to your benefit and questioning a dow that goes up 9-62 points per day. Maria Bartiromo looks pale and flush. She needs some news to report...instead of the same old daily line. She liked the action when the VIX was high.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 17:41 | Link to Comment raya123
raya123's picture

Stocks will go straight down until April, and gold / silver will go straight up until that time.  The reason lies in the euro.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 17:46 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

I would like to direct this to the distinguished members of the federal reserve: You lousy cork-soakers. You have violated my farging rights. Dis somanumbatching country was founded so that the liberties of common patriotic citizens, like me, could not be taken away by a bunch of fargin iceholes... like yourselves. [/roman moroni]

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 17:55 | Link to Comment HedgeFundLIVE
HedgeFundLIVE's picture

so, where will that take the spooz to (levels)?  i think we would rally another 50 points. maybe even 1498!  call me crazy: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/could-this-rally-possibly-take-us-to-1498-on-the-spooz

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 18:50 | Link to Comment sellstop
sellstop's picture

A look at some charts shows that the USD has lost about 20% since early '09.

The stock markets are up 100% since early '09.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if the USD lost another 20% over the next couple years.

So, why can't the stock market double again?

http://ghickeyblog.blogspot.com

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 19:20 | Link to Comment jobs1234
jobs1234's picture

You are going to reach a point where producers cant pass on price increases to consumers without some wage inflation, which isnt going to happen with unemployment at 9%.

Every monetary policy decision has positive and negative consequences. Market doesnt care about QE negatives and USD dollar weakening now, but they will eventually.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 21:14 | Link to Comment American Dreams
American Dreams's picture

Because within two years the US Dollar will no longer be the global reserve currency.  The scheme ends when an alternative reserve currency is presented to a starved, inflationary, angry world and it is welcomed with open arms and roses.  Either that or we have a great big ole' war.  Take your pick and you might even get both if some of these fucks get really pissed.

 

know your enemy

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 19:07 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

when the bears are bullish...kinda worrying

estimates in 2002 forecasters had 30,000 for the Dow in 2008...

All you got now are HFT on thin liquidity supporting stocks and wall street throwing in billion + long position's.

even if the crazies at the Fed go all QE3, China will sell another chunk of UST (they have been selling steadily start yr). 

Equation: China tea price doubles in less then two wks, middle yr = China will go nuclear and force USD bid = UST sell off, yields will go ballistic.

We are heading towards doomsday trades, 3-6mths

 

 

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 19:29 | Link to Comment Dingleberry Jones
Dingleberry Jones's picture

Speaking of dates, where is that weirdo prediction guy with his theory about an elite shadow Catholic society that tanks markets? I thought that they already met this month in Rome.  

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 21:27 | Link to Comment lbrecken
lbrecken's picture

Can tyler or some else explain truely the issues related to whether the crooked FED implement another QE3?  I mean all this stock mkt talk comes down to that so lets discuss the issues whether it will be implemented or not and wha thas to occur to stop it.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 21:35 | Link to Comment OCTOPVS
OCTOPVS's picture

93 trading days until a double top....:)

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 21:57 | Link to Comment dcb
dcb's picture

since the fed loves reading he charts, we all know that if you brak theprior high, we aren't in a bear market. so of of course that is the aim.

 

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 22:31 | Link to Comment lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

I have a simple tool I use for dealing with the counterfeiting. Every time they announce more counterfeiting programs, I put the dollar with PM purchases. I am at the 35% level and poised for 50% when QE subsidize broke dick states hits in June. See the Illinois bailout today? Sweet.

Just do what the Chinese do. They are my new ally.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 23:56 | Link to Comment prophet
prophet's picture

Hopefully, the pensions will lock in those gains, tax rates will sky rocket and the wealthy will provide funding to the municipalities. 

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 00:57 | Link to Comment 99er
99er's picture

Dow Futures

Wolfe Wave target of 12081.

http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts-0

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 08:42 | Link to Comment JNM
JNM's picture

Anybody notice, that we JUST entered into multiplier expansion, on a monthly data series of trailing operating earnings?

It's absolutely stupid, but this bull, is JUST getting started, if the history of greed and stupidity is any guide.

I site Q2-1996 to Q3-1998, earnings were basically flat but the trailing PE ran from 17x to 23x.

If we see the next two quarters of earnings estimates coming true, birinyi and goldman will be saying "I told you so", as 1600 on the S&P 500 will be in the rear view mirror.

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