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Abandon Apple Ship? Ken Heebner Dumps Almost Entire Apple Stake

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Is the game theory defection dump of the world's biggest hedge fund hotel starting? In a just released 13F filing, Ken Heebner's Capital Growth Management has disclosed that he has reduced his holdings in Apple almost to zero. After holding 1.15 million AAPL shares as of June 30 (which made him holder #100 in the name sorted by size), Ken Heebner who is a regular guest on CNBC courtesy of his bullish tendencies, sold virtually his entire stake, leaving him with just 111,000 shares. One can only speculate about the causes, although it is notable that the last time Heebner did a comparable dump was in late 2008, when after the Lehman bankruptcy he liquidated half his million share stake. Is Heebner sensing something comparable to what happened in late 2008 on the horizon? Or was he satisfying margin calls? Or, most innocently, did he just sell what is probably his most profitable position, "just because" - inquiring minds want to know. We will keep an eye out on who else dumped Apple as the barrage of Q3 13F issuance begins today and ends on Monday.

Source: CapIQ

h/t Brian

 

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Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:18 | 722441 fallingman
fallingman's picture

name sorted by size, bitchez!

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:44 | 722558 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Can anyone explain this?

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^FVX

12,000%???

Much appreciated.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:43 | 722802 Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

This is excerpted from a post I just made on the Apple topic, but I thought I throw some pics here to pretty the place up a bit...

I’m not going to got through a whole bunch of “I told you so’s”, but Heebner knows how to count, and probably sees the margin writing on the wall: A Quick Peek Into the REAL WORLD Logic That Went Into Building the BoomBustBlog Apple Model: It’s Called Compression!!! Tuesday, October 19th, 2010

Add to that the fact that he probably realizes.  Of course, like me he may have seen After all, Reggie Middleton Wasn’t the ONLY Openly Apple Bear in the Blogoshpere, Was He?

Heebner is not the only one reading BoomBustBlog and/or deciding to leave the Apple cult, as excerpted from the “Peek Into the REAL WORLD Logic” link above:

“The rising popularity of devices using Google’s Android software may hurt Apple in the long term, said Michael Obuchowski, chief investment officer of First Empire Asset Management, which holds Apple shares. “Everyone is closing in and it’s a huge question of how they are going to respond,” said Obuchowski, whose firm oversees $4 billion. “I’m really worried about Apple; I’m not convinced that I’m going to hold Apple two years from now.””

“‘Commodity’ Experience
Jobs dismissed the threat of rivals. Apple’s approach of designing the software and hardware for its devices results in a better user experience, he said. By contrast, Google gives Android free to handset makers including Motorola Inc. and HTC Corp., creating a “commodity” experience, he said. “We are very committed to the integrated approach, no matter how many times Google tries to characterize it as closed,” Jobs said. He said Apple is outselling BlackBerry-maker RIM and he doesn’t “see them catching up with us in the foreseeable future.””

Notice how he failed to say Apple was outselling Android. This is material, because they were materially outselling Android 2 and 3 quarters ago. Androids growth rate is simply phenomenal, and its business model may prove unassailable unless Apple makes some drastic changes (ex. allowing cloning) – changes that I doubt management will be willing to make. Jobs also (understandably) failed to mention that the “commodity’ Androids materially outperform the iOS products in terms of features and functionality. This is pretty much in direct contravention to the concept of the term “commodity”, isn’t it???? I don’t think many Samsung Galaxy S, Droid X or HTC Evo owners will characterize their devices as “commodities”.

“Munster, who estimated Apple would sell 11 million iPhones, said last week that supply shortages likely held back sales of both the smartphone and iPad. The cost of making the iPhone may be increasing, said Andy Hargreaves, an analyst at Pacific Crest Securities in Portland, Oregon. The device accounts for 43 percent of Apple’s revenue [and much more of their profit!!!]. ‘‘We saw what we think is a pretty remarkable increase in iPhone costs,” and that’s fueled concern over margins, Hargreaves said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.”

Good to know he’s been reading BoomBustBlog. Remember, supply shortages can very well stem from competition for suppliers and supplier’s attention. Is it Android again??? Here’s a hint… Does the sole patent holder and sole manufacturer of Apple’s branded IPS Retina Screen plan to become one of the most prolific Android phone vendor’s in the world? If so, where does that leave Apple? Margin compression!!! Or worse. Read up on your proprietary Apple content BoombBustBlog subscribers!

“Verizon Phone – Even so, competition is increasing. The Android operating system was the most popular smartphone software in the U.S. in the second quarter, according to Gartner Inc. Samsung, HTC, Motorola and Dell Inc. are among the companies using Android in tablet computers to rival the iPad. Hewlett-Packard Co., the largest computer maker, is developing a tablet computer.
Apple may get a sales boost by expanding the availability of the iPhone in the U.S. Verizon Wireless may begin selling it in January, two people familiar with the matter said in June.”

You can bet your left nostril hairs that the deal Verizon cut is NO WHERE near as sweet as the one AT&T gave Apple. What does this spell? Margin COMPRESSION in the quest for wider distribution to prevent Android (to late) from gaining critical mass and taking over.

There’s just so many reasons for the big Apple dumpt. Of course, there is no reason to liquidate nearly all of such a large position for liquidity reasons unless you feel it has run its course, or worse. Then again… What do I know?

Below is a graph showing the longer term trend of Apple market share in the smart phone space. It illustrates the explosive growth Apple has had through its iPhone series, and it also shows some seasonality (ex. lull before hardware upgrade season, etc.). As you can see, the growth trend, viewed either directly or as a moving average, shows marked downward momentum. Of course, it is highly unreasonable to expect a company to continue to grow at the pace that Apple has, but that is exactly what many Apple valuation models that I have come across have – literally hard-coded in. This is folly, in my opinion – particularly considering the effect of the Android competition that is already showing up. If you look closely, Apple’s smart phone market share is already showing NEGATIVE growth!


Since I know that the chart may be a little difficult to read at the tail end encompassing several years of data, I have taken the liberty to drill down to the past year to get a closer look. Remember, Android sales didn’t really get started until 8 months ago, and the big surge didn’t occur until the Evo/Droid X/Samsung Galaxy series were launched in June, July and August – most of which is not captured here. The same is to be said for Apple and the iPhone 4.

Click to enlarge to printer size!

Despite increases in both the overall mobile market and more importantly, the smart phone contingent’s penetration of said market:

  1. Apple’s smart phone shipments are showing a negative growth trend
  2. and more importantly, Apple’s smart phone market share is experiencing a very sharp downward trend as shown by both direct observation and that of the 2 period moving average

I am bullish on certain tech companies, but I am bearish on the US equity markets in general, as I warned in my latest Google Quarterly opinion: Google Q3 2010 review for all paying subscribers (click here to subscribe):

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 15:23 | 722947 Cruel Aid
Cruel Aid's picture

I'm sure everybody here got out before Heebner. There is a lot of scrambling going on now.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 15:59 | 723048 Cojones
Cojones's picture

You're forgetting one very important sales concept, Reggie. The Apple $89 MacBook Pro Power adapters. Just today I picked up the fourth for my 2 year old MBP. They must be a big moneymaker since everyone I know has to replace the adapter at least once a year.

Manufacturing price of this sealed shut piece of crap? $2 max. Waranty? Never. Apple simply claims you are the one responsible for breaking it. Apple sucks monkeyballs.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 20:39 | 723788 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

"Manufacturing price of this sealed shut piece of crap? $2 max. Waranty? Never. Apple simply claims you are the one responsible for breaking it. Apple sucks monkeyballs."

I though you were leading up to one of those "priceless" endings like in the Basturdcard comercials.  Apple has always sucked monkeyballs.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:18 | 722442 centerline
centerline's picture

APPL flash crash?

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:23 | 722451 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

Range 212-316, WTF!

 

Edit: Now I'm getting 309-316.... hmmm

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:36 | 722523 centerline
centerline's picture

http://js-kit.com/blob/6OkHF5p5AGL0eeTltvh7T8.png

 

(credit to poster over at Nathan's Economic Edge)

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:19 | 722444 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Maybe he wanted to buy CROCS ??

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:23 | 722466 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Or some KKD! I hear its under priced again.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:29 | 722486 CPL
CPL's picture

I never understood the concept of a billion dollar IPO based on shitty gardening shoes...reminds me of Dutch Tulip scams a la the 1700's.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:42 | 722546 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

The soft material wears out faster than regular shoes, so people need to buy Crocs more frequently.  Duh!  Ever heard of Diet Coke?  The next great stock I am looking for is a company that makes you look better, but only until you wash.  Oh wait, that is AVON.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:21 | 722454 redpill
redpill's picture

Someone call 911 and tell the Paramedics they need to check on RobotTrader, he should be put on suicide watch!

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:24 | 722465 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

Robo was short AAPL at earnings.  Not sure of his current holdings.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:22 | 722461 Assetman
Assetman's picture

Heebner probably crapped his pants when John Chambers suggested state and local (schools) governments aren't buying stuff.

He's probably buying high yield muni debt on the expectation that the Fed will by this at 100 cents on the dollar, too. 

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:31 | 722500 Cruel Aid
Cruel Aid's picture

Somebody is buying Muni Etf's today after the recent cliff dive.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:25 | 722471 doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

let's see...my math is a little rusty...is that "$300+ million dollars"?  "just imagine being that holder" for a moment!  hard to tell with China "playing the rare earth card."  Apple still is...Apple.  "They make people money therefore they have friends."  If he's smart (and he's one of the best) "he's eyeballing GM while keeping an eye on the tax rates which in theory will stay the same."

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:26 | 722474 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well, until the ICBM's start flying again anyway.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:50 | 722579 Xedus129
Xedus129's picture

Thought it was a plane ;)

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:04 | 722622 bonddude
bonddude's picture

Yeah, with no wings, ha.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:27 | 722475 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Sure wish I could short USPS...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704658204575610513535591480.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

Same type of brain trust running the rest of the .gov, right?

The best of the best of the best, like Harry Wanger(s) as an example.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:26 | 722477 CPL
CPL's picture

He's probably running for a physical gold train. We've all been seeing the typical loud mouth bull getting their asses in gear to move into a position of extreme liquidity to purchase tonnes of gold.

I can't see whatelse that type of capitialization is needed for...

OR

Unless KB is the mystery UK bailout contributor offering 5 billion to bail out that old bitch the Queen a couple of weeks ago. Trying to find a link but as usual Google news has been a monument to news retraction/censorship.

OR

ITT: if you have a conspiracy theory!!!

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:39 | 722539 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

+100 on Google "news" being worthless

- other than as an indicator of what the NSA doesn't want you to see, that is.

 

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:27 | 722480 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

So how long does pomo run ..... ?

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:28 | 722485 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Lazy 8.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:30 | 722494 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Today's POMO was done an hour ago.  You'll have to wait until Monday for your next one.

Maybe.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:30 | 722495 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Dang I hope POMO doesnt run MUCH longer! This is a damn disaster!

Bernanke- 'Note to self...retool POMO, name it something else, put Heebner on top of Secret Service watch and harassment list'

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:28 | 722482 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Market doesn't like it when the world's 2nd largest company starts selling off. 

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:32 | 722502 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea, and crazy how the 2nd largest company in the world only produces worthless IGadgets.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:35 | 722512 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:37 | 722527 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

I used to defend their computers but once they started in the iGadget biz it seems like they forgot about quality on their computers. I own a total of 7 macs for business. All purchased between 2006 and last month. Four were absolute lemons and had to be replaced and or repaired within a few months of purchase. It's a shame. Used to be a great computer maker now just a fad gadget manufacturer.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:47 | 722564 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

I love the apple computers ours are like tanks we have 6-7 ... 2 of them are 6 years old ... (Graphic Design/Pre-press)

 

 

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:09 | 722638 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Funny thing is, our two oldest G5 towers are unreal. Never had a problem with them at all. Just the new stuff. We've been theorizing for a couple of years that once MacWorld started putting iPhones on every cover, it's like the Mac got no attention at Apple and quality plummeted. 

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:53 | 722589 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

The old saw was that PC's required you to learn way more about your computer than you ever wanted to know.  That was the benefit of the Macs.  They were easy and intuitive.  Apple f'kd up when they held the reigns too tightly and snubbed the gamers.  Then they had to play catchup, which they did by appealing to Gen X snobbery - "I have a Macbook so I'm on the cutting edge of hip" kindof shit. 

All I want my computer to do is to work well.

The last straw for me was the iPod not having user serviceable batteries. 

Fk Apple.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:07 | 722631 e1618978
e1618978's picture

Gaming on the mac is better than ever, you have old information.  Valve has steam, which distributes games on the PC and Mac at the same time, and all Blizzard games are on the mac.   My mac pro is two years old and is fantastic, don't know about the cheaper computers.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:09 | 722636 Xedus129
Xedus129's picture

That's only because Blizzard writes their games in openGL.  OpenGL isn't bad but there are better gfx engines.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:19 | 722683 detournement
detournement's picture

gaming on the mac is great if you run windows on it, otherwise have fun with 'Worms'

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:26 | 722713 Skeebo
Skeebo's picture

"Better than ever" still equals "for shit" compared to any alternative.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:10 | 722633 Cruel Aid
Cruel Aid's picture

Check your power source. Mine are dependable workhorses. Dell, now there is a POS unit!

It's a shame because they are local.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 16:14 | 723131 still kicking
still kicking's picture

Mac, PC, Iphone, Blackberry, Nokia it's all the same shitty hardware, it is designed to burn out so that you have to go buy new ones every couple of years.  They don't make this stuff to last any longer than that on purpose.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:36 | 722524 redpill
redpill's picture

All this deflationary activity is going to prompt some folks to change their ipad for a fresh one

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:40 | 722541 Papa Legba
Papa Legba's picture

Yeah. Keep thinking that's all Apple produces.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:50 | 722581 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Oh right, Apple also produces a very high rate of Chinese slave labor suicides too.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:54 | 722592 redpill
redpill's picture

zing!

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:01 | 722610 Xedus129
Xedus129's picture

Apple has helped the devolution of computing.  Closed-source, closed-mind, pink, idiot boxes is all they produce.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:06 | 722630 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Hey, it works.  

Better than marketing a box that only a highly trained supergenius can keep operational and secure to "idiots".

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:12 | 722646 Xedus129
Xedus129's picture

I just get so pissed at the fact that they control development for their devices so much.  It stiffles innovation IMO, look at Android, Google understands the value of open-development.  Plus all Apple does is rename products made 10 years ago with an i in front of it.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:31 | 722746 patience...
patience...'s picture

Okay, so how about an example of innovation from the Android platform.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:01 | 722614 tmosley
tmosley's picture

And thus, Taco Bell doesn't need to raise the prices on their chalupas.

It's the circle of life.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:05 | 722626 Xedus129
Xedus129's picture

I think thats more due to the quality of the meat.  Hence, taco-bell = toxic-hell.  Speaking of meat, a 1lb ny-strip steak is no less than 19.99 at any restaurant I can think of.  I'm gonna be really upset when I can't afford meat.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:05 | 722624 Aristarchan
Aristarchan's picture

Suicide?...hhhh....anyone run the numbers yet to see when China will run out of Chinese, and can date-point a drop in unemployment in the US?

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 15:34 | 722967 ATG
ATG's picture

Can't eat Apples

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:39 | 722535 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

Tinfoil hat:  The late POMO glitch was due to negotiations between what stocks PD would buy.  They had AAPL on the prelim list and Brian held the POMO funds because he felt AAPL was getting too hot.  To release funds, the PD's had to promise to not pump AAPL to infinity and beyond.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:02 | 722616 Lax Accounting
Lax Accounting's picture

AAPL is not the world's 2nd largest company. 2nd largest publicly traded sure.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:11 | 722643 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

You are correct. By market cap it's number two. Well, at least it was about 4 hours ago.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 17:50 | 723437 Djirk
Djirk's picture

unless you believe the FED market cap and wealth are not the same. A great company yes, but the 2nd most valuable nope.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:28 | 722484 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

Both APPL and SPX have finally broken rising wedge from August 30.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:29 | 722487 doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

'..margin compression..' - Reggie

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:29 | 722488 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Move to other buys. AAPL may not have a lot of up left. The holidays could disappoint (or fail to moon-shot, same thing) and AAPL drop 15% in a week.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:33 | 722508 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

If/when AAPL loses 15% in a week, it's goodbye SPX and NAZ.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:00 | 722545 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

NAZ for sure. If they spin it as a consumer pull-back, they can probably get away with it. The bigger problem would be institutional investors getting nuked. They are in this up to their eyeballs.

Lotta pain out there, if someone rips that Fed bandage off the wound.

EDIT: aaaaand ... they just announced iPad sales for the miss.

Nice while it lasted.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:29 | 722490 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Its all good. Evil Mickey Mouse stock was up.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:29 | 722492 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Gold down $40.00 Turd ?

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:33 | 722511 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

If I recall Trud expected a pull back ~1380s, keep an eye on the 50dma.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:39 | 722536 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Jessie called for 1376. We are under that now. 1361 as I type.

Could be everything is being sold off to meet some margin calls.

 

Goldie price down, come to Mama dear!

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:20 | 722651 Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

No.  Actually, he said that gold would likely hit 1450 by end of this week (today) due to the overwhelming amount of POMO going on.  

Then, once it hit about 1450, profit takers were suppose to show up - duh!  Then it would retrace a little, but there was huge support supposedly at 1380-85.  After a little profit taking, it would continue it's march toward 1550 by December 10th.

If I remember correctly, that was his prediction. And that was just 2-3 days ago.

Instead, it didn't come close to 1450, and it sliced through 1380 like a warm knife through butter.

Just the facts....sorry.

There is something he did get right, though.  He said gold would go up, and after it goes up, it will go down as people take profits.  

Tonight I'm predicting that I'll be hungry.  After I eat some food, I predict that I'll be full and stop eating.  Then, once I stop and sleep, I predict I'll be hungry again tomorrow.

I'm not trying to poke fun at Turd (maybe a little), but rather to the endless number of predictions around there that are consistently wrong.  Another well regarded poster said the S&P would touch 1185, and then crash hard.  He/she said it so convincingly, yet no one called it out when it was just utterly wrong. In fact, the exact opposite happened.

So...my point:  It seems to me that one of the main objectives of ZH is to point out the lunacy of the markets and the outright manipulation that occurs on weekly, daily, hourly, and micro-second intervals.  The entire market is bullshit, and Tyler has done a phenomenal job exposing it.  

And while everyone praises Tyler's posts, very few of you are truly listening.  You continue to make predictions based on bullshit charts that have absolutely no relevance within a corrupt system. Why would someone make a prediction that gold would hit 1450 and then pull back, or that the S&P will hit 1185, then crash hard?  Someone else mentions that we should be looking at the 50 dma of this or that.  There are an endless number of other erroneous predictions based on nothing but an attempt to chart a broken system.  And broadly speaking, everyone has made a prediction at some point that the market would have crashed to zero by now. Why is there such a need to make specific predictions if we all agree that the market is utterly broken?

As smart as most of you are, you just don't get it.  

Actually, the one person that does seem to get it is RoboTrader.  He continues to point to charts that display the total lunacy of everything.  And, of course, he's the one person you guys mock the most.  

 

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:22 | 722693 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

you got soul RNR

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:29 | 722729 Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

Damn straight.

I've got more soul than 4 brothers in a drop-top deville cruising Santa Monica on a Saturday night with a trunk full of gin and juice. 

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:32 | 722748 PolishHammer
PolishHammer's picture

10/10

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 15:38 | 722984 ATG
ATG's picture

Hear hear

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:34 | 722513 unky
unky's picture

I also expect an answer to that!

Gold down 46$ and Silver 1.70$ ? Why???? Will this trend continue in short term?

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:42 | 722550 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Most of the POMO went to shorting PM's. Has to be. But what Im really looking at is the bloodbath in bonds, omfg.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 18:31 | 723543 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

I agree.  With the POO going to the critical $90/bbl level, I've been expecting a market dip - and any time that happens, a short-term concurrent short-cover dip in PM's is usual.  What I didn't expect was the rise in bonds - damn!  I looked at the 10yr and the damn thing's up like 8%.

=O

If this trend continues there's going to be some earthquakes in the system...  

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:49 | 722577 Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

Every commodity is getting crushed.  The boys in the sugar pits will tell gold folks to stop bitching.  Sugar is down 10+% today.  Imagine the news if gold was down $140 bucks!

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:50 | 722822 moregoldplease
moregoldplease's picture

Buy now spend later

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:39 | 722515 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Along the watchtower ...  I got it .

 

Overnight the Dec10 gold again tested support around 1380 and, again, it held. As of 9:20 EST its rebounded all the way to 1392.50. Silver did the same as it bounced right off of 26.50 once again and has a last of 27.18. As we go along today, all of the overnight fireworks will be nothing but a distant memory provided the Dec10 closes above 1372 and the Dec10 silver closes above 25.90 (recent lows).With $6-8B in POMO hitting the PDs later this morning, I would be absolutely stunned if we happened to fall below those levels. With a little POMO love, we may even put in a "upside reversal day". An upside reversal day would occur if we can close today above yesterday's high of 1417. It would take a lot of work but it's worth pulling for if only because of the damage it would do to the weekend plans of Blythe and her minions.

 

by Turd Ferguson
on Wed, 11/10/2010 - 14:48
#717372

 

I hear ya and it would be foolish to simply extrapolate the #s. However, you're going to get your ass kicked if you fight the Fed this month. HellyBenny himself said last week that "rising asset prices generate a 'wealth effect' that inspires economic growth". Dow 14000 sounds crazy but 12500-13000 by 12/15 doesn't. Not when $100fuckingB is coming in. $1800 gold is hard to imagine but my oft-stated target of 1500 before 12/10/10 is a near certainty now. 1600 is realistic along with $35 silver.

Its going to be a wild, wild month.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:58 | 722602 spartan117
spartan117's picture

And what do YOU invest in, Johnny B?

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:06 | 722628 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Hey when I see calls day after day..... Gold going to $1,600.00 by the new year.....?

I thought it was guaranteed ? Like housing.

 

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:09 | 722637 spartan117
spartan117's picture

No one forced you to think that way.  Obviously it was, and still is, a prognostication by an anonymous poster who decided to put his neck on the line by stating his opinion.

You, on the other hand, are nothing but a shit stirrer.  Welcome back Johnny Bravo.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:17 | 722668 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

I'm not a shit stirrer.

So gold can't be a bubble now ...oh o.k. . So who is going to win the superbowl ? Is it going to rain 3 weeks from now in Spain ?

Making calls for gold at 1,600.00 by the end of the year using your rerview is stupid. Who the fuck knows whats going to happen in 2 months ?? Thats my point ....

Why is gold down, crymex ? JP Morgan ? I thought everything was ready to run ?

 

Gold is a bet just like everything else ....

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:27 | 722720 spartan117
spartan117's picture

Making calls for gold at 1,600.00 by the end of the year using your rerview is stupid.

Why is it stupid? So you don't know what's going to happen in 2 months.  Does this inability to predict outcomes prevent you from making decisions in life?  Do you just sit on your ass and wait for some type of absolution?  WTF? 

 

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:41 | 722794 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

No but what happens when people get blowtorched going all in on this type of call using futures ect....?

Turd forgot more about gold/trading than me I understand this but its still a bet. Not a sure thing ...

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 18:59 | 723606 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

Yeah - but there are better bets, and worse bets.

Of course short-term plays are the riskiest - but the long-term trend is undeniable.  This is why Jim Rogers doesn't day trade.

A real "long-haul" gold bull isn't the slightest bit worried about this retracement.  This is normal PM action - go look at the 10 year chart.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 16:22 | 723162 still kicking
still kicking's picture

It is day 1 of POMO this month, if on November 30th we are still in a position where commodities and securities are getting beat down I would get worried.  It's one damn day......DAMN.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 16:23 | 723166 JohnG
JohnG's picture

" Is it going to rain 3 weeks from now in Spain ?"

 

Mainly on the plain....

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:03 | 722620 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

This is the first day of new pomos, if you want to short 100+ billion a month in liquidity no one will stop you. And if you didn't notice the dollar, stocks, commodities, and bonds are all down. WTF?

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:40 | 722542 Mozzer
Mozzer's picture

that's it, i'm headed to the coin shop! 

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:43 | 722556 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I might stop at the coin shop after I load up more at the gun store, depends on if I have anything left from mass ammo purchases.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 15:23 | 722948 Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

You've got the personality of the Unibomber, except without the charisma and intelligence. 

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:31 | 722498 Keith Piccirillo
Keith Piccirillo's picture

He needed the money to expand on his F holdings.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:31 | 722499 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

What was story about AAPLs, Eves and Sirpants?

Someone made a dubious offer, someone bit on it, AAPL got chewed and since then, we've all been drowning in Cognitive Dissonance.

Hmmmmmm......

And Job(s)? Book of? Tablet of?

All very Biblical sounding to me, I'll tell you that.

One rotten AAPL....

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

 

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:32 | 722501 I Am The Unknow...
I Am The Unknown Comic's picture

A rising POMO tide lifts all boats, until it starts to pour over the bow.....and then......

Rats....Ship.....JUMP!!!

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:00 | 722609 I Am The Unknow...
I Am The Unknown Comic's picture

...courtesy of currency wars....Wow! look at that dollar run!

Run, rabbit run
Dig that hole, forget the sun
And when at last the work is done
Don't sit down
It's time to dig another one

...and a big whopping good luck to to Rabid Bearhankie on that one.......

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:35 | 722517 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

I have to defend my Apple. They make a mean Laptop. My MBP kicks Elephant Ass

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:39 | 722537 detournement
detournement's picture

Aaple doesn't 'make' the MBP, China does. Aapl just gets you to buy it for 50% more than you'd pay for the same components in a case designed by Dell. This is the biggest co ( some days) by market capitalization in America. rotten to the core

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:41 | 722551 Papa Legba
Papa Legba's picture

You know how they do that?

They put good software on there that helps people get things done.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:45 | 722562 detournement
detournement's picture

 

 Aapl make really good advertisings on 'tv' ?

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:04 | 722613 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

I know its made in China, But its "Designed by Apple in California". Thats what it says on the folder that contains my Apple stickers. . Actually Jony Ive sounds Australian.

 

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:08 | 722635 detournement
detournement's picture

can i have your extra stickers for my Hyundai?

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 17:14 | 723335 Ted K
Ted K's picture

But if something goes wrong on your Hyundai, Steve Jobs will fire a head engineer and say he had nothing to do with the decision to put a bad antenna on your car.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 15:50 | 723018 ATG
ATG's picture

This is the biggest co ( some days) by market capitalization in America

XOM = $357 B

AAPL = $285 B

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:35 | 722519 OpenEyes
OpenEyes's picture

Mish's blog just came back up.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:36 | 722526 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well I sure am glad 'the consumer' is more confident! Means exactly SHIT when the bankrupt unemployed 'consumer' will soon not be consuming $20 loaves of bread and $7 gasoline! 

Party on Ben and Timmah ya fuktards!

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:38 | 722530 Cone of Uncertainty
Cone of Uncertainty's picture

This is such bullshit.

Can't you idiots see this was just a fat finger filing?

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:38 | 722532 InsanePonziClown
InsanePonziClown's picture

lol, hebner is a squid king, he has tentacles everywhere, he's a growth at reasonable price guy, if prices ain't reasonable for him, well.................he knew what csco would do long before it was released

 

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:41 | 722548 simon says
simon says's picture

TD, Did POMO go off?  Market  is acting like POMO funds not deployed yet.  Or is EU assurance of Irish problem wearing out?  All assets (stocks, PMs, UST)are tanking which suggests a forced/coordinated takedown.  Bet you a nickel the PDs are buying up all classes right now and JPM is happily covering silver shorts.  What a joke.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:42 | 722552 mjfleuet
mjfleuet's picture

Wondering if the POMO money is shorting the market -- pretty amazing results for a 7.5B POMO day.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:46 | 722568 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Lot of time left today. You know how this works - they come in on the dips and run it into the close. 

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:42 | 722554 Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

I sold the rest of my Apple last week too.  My cost basis was under $20.  Thanks to all the folks that have run the price up for me this year.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:45 | 722565 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And net result from todays 3 Stooges FED/Treasury antics...no one will EVER re-enter the markets again! R.I.P. US markets, job well done youve successfully destroyed everything, stooges. So now what? Straight into WW3?

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:46 | 722570 redpill
redpill's picture

This is outrageous, I demand that selling be outlawed immediately!

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:47 | 722571 Marla And Me
Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:12 | 722648 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I like seeing that, riot cops begging the pissed off peasantry to please stop rioting for a while! Never hear mention of the massive Europe riots in our lame pathetic US news.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:58 | 722605 Die Weiße Rose
Die Weiße Rose's picture

Apple  P/e 21 :

Oversexed, overpriced and made in China

at our local suicide launch pad by quality slaves labour

for only 6.63650 Renminbi ( 1 dollar per day )


 

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:58 | 722606 Dr. Copper
Dr. Copper's picture

Tyler,

 

CGMFX lost 66% in 2008 and has barely come back.  I think perhaps you put too much stock in Ken Heebner's ability to both forecast and side step a bear market...

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:01 | 722611 SRV - ES339
Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:44 | 722804 iDealMeat
iDealMeat's picture

Good day to do it..

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:12 | 722645 Tsunami Effect
Tsunami Effect's picture

Let's face reality.  This market is set up to crash.

And it is always driven by excess leverage, a change in the rules and a sudden change in where leverage flows.  Now from the markets to the FED. More signs...

China tightening, Europe neutral, US QE

VIX swing 22-18-21 in one week

Massive leverage in commodities crushed by margin in silver. Selling of liquid assets to meet margin in commodities... more margin tightening must be coming

Insider selling avalanche

Fed's magic bullet is spent.  They have to think of another "tool"

Europe PIIGS default may happen soon.  That story line is just like Lehman.

Finally, don't forget Bernanke is a LIFELONG academic 35 years in the ivory tower.  He is clueless about what ACTUAL consumer inflation (incl. food energy) is doing to buying power and confidence.  He screwed up bigtime after Bear by DRAINING LIQUIDITY through POMO SALES and at the same time cutting rates!  There was no need to do QE2 and PD's are SHORTING the trade now IMHO (remember GS recommended to frontrun POMO a couple weeks ago). 

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:13 | 722653 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I think thats a good conclusion on it all.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 15:55 | 723034 ATG
ATG's picture

Bingo bango bongo

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:15 | 722662 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Tin Hat on and engaged: Some rare earth deal went sour and the insiders know it.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:24 | 722706 redpill
redpill's picture

Yep, China is barring imports of Bernankium.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:33 | 722753 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Cannot process the Bernankium without some Defaultium. Regarding which there is currently a shortage. However I understand that there may have been a big find of Defaultium deposits in Euro-land, so the market will straighten itself out shortly.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:42 | 722786 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Defaultium reacts with Heidelburgium Pressite to form Marsium, no?

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 19:52 | 723700 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

True. But the resulting economy is too fragile to actually use for anything, and there's a lot of smoke and heat produced, and sometimes it blows up completely. Almost nobody goes that route anymore.

Sat, 11/13/2010 - 00:58 | 724259 prophet
prophet's picture

Zeronium Hedgeum

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:30 | 722739 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Looking like there are plenty of folks lining up to buy those shares he dumped. 

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:59 | 722853 Die Weiße Rose
Die Weiße Rose's picture

Ever since  Napoleon Bonaparte came across our German borders in 1799 to force himself upon us crowning himself " Emperor of our holy Roman Empire " after his failed social experiment of that ridiculous French Revolution, ever since then, us Germans rebel against anything that reminds us only remotely of Napoleon.

German People are mostly Royalists and we want our Empire back.

until then the EU will have to do ~



 

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 15:54 | 723027 ATG
ATG's picture

100 Years War Redux?

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 18:33 | 723550 pitz
pitz's picture

You can buy a whole computer including LCD display for $500.  Why would an iPad/iPhone go for double that? 

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 19:53 | 723703 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

You know you want one.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 21:32 | 723902 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

No way! I dropped my Blackberry in a public toilet and now I have an IPhone.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 21:38 | 723915 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

DELL had there chance with me. I can only be fooled once.

Sat, 11/13/2010 - 01:06 | 724266 prophet
prophet's picture

Front runners don't like to be front run and will arb out any attempt to capture their advantage rather than let someone else profit from it.

 

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ghd outlet's picture

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