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Abandoning the Capped Oil Well: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
What could possibly go wrong?
One
expert warns
that increasing pressure might have an unintended danger:
Bill
Gale, a California engineer and industrial explosion expert who is
a member of the Deepwater Horizon Study Group, said… that gas
hydrate crystals could be plugging any holes in the underground
portion of the well, and they could get dislodged as pressure
builds.
(Gale was formerly Chief Loss Prevention
Engineer for Bechtel in San Francisco, obtained his undergraduate degree
in Chemical Engineering, Masters in Civil Engineering and PhD in Fire
Safety Engineering Science from the University of California,
Berkeley. Gale is a registered professional engineer in both
mechanical engineering and fire protection engineering, and has more
than forty years of industrial loss prevention, process safety
management, and fire protection/fire safety engineering experience.)
In
other words, there may have been a destruction of a portion of the
steel well casing which was temporarily
plugged by methane hydrate crystals. Leaving the well cap may
slowly raise the pressure in the well to the point where the hydrate
crystals are dislodged, in which case the well might really start leaking.
Sound farfetched?
Maybe.
But
remember that the top hat containment dome failed because it got plugged
up with methane hydrate crystals.
And remember that there's a lot of methane down there. Indeed,
while most crude oil contains 5% methane, the crude oil gushing out of
the blown out well is 40%
methane.
Although even less likely, scientists say that the
methane could disturb the seafloor itself. As the St. Peterburg Times points
out:
Disturbing
those [methane hydrate] deposits — say, by drilling an oil well through
them — can turn that solid methane into a liquid, leaving the ocean
floor unstable, explained [Carol Lutken of the University of
Mississippi, which is part of a consortium with SRI which has been
conducting methane research in the Gulf of Mexico for years].
***
Generally
the oil industry tries to avoid methane areas during drilling for
safety reasons. But the U.S. Energy Department wants to find a way to
harvest fuel from those methane deposits, Lutken said. [I've previously discussed
that issue in detail.]
So what's the bottom line?
I
am not predicting that anything bad will happen. Hopefully, when the
storm is over and the underwater ROV submersibles return to the spill
site, everything will be peaceful and stable.
But there are many variables such as methane hydrates which - in a
worst-case scenario - could complicate matters.
- advertisements -
Propane, propane
Time to start the game
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldoT2mHubGE&sns=em
Why so much concern for the GOM? I, as a normal american, have zero concern or care regarding the GOM. Why? For the following reasons:
1) i do not eat fish let alone shellfish so i do not care about the health and safety of the fish stock.
2) i do not live anywhere near the GOM nor do i have anyone i remotely care about in that area.
3) i like cheap gas and i do not care one wit who has to die or be injured or suffer in producing the same.
4) i care no more abouth the GOM than i do about the Niger Delta or the North Sea or the Amazon river basin.
5) Southeners exist to be exploited and are nothing more than resource extraction locales.
6) I am an american and thus i do not care about anyone or anything that does not directly and negatively impact me IMMEDIATELY.
7) I do not see any way i can make money off this situation nor do i see any way to be entertained by it, thus i do not care about it.
8) it is hot out and i do not like to think too much in the heat.
9) i have FULL faith in any and all multi-national corporations as they exist to make my life better and easier and lastly
10) the science seems really complicated and there are too many numbers involved
brilliantly funny
I feel basically the same way and I live down here on the GOM. I must really be messed up.
That's a pretty good impersonation...
BUT, you neglected to capitalize the words 'American' and 'I'...Not very American of you...Well, not in my neck of the woods anyway...We gots lots of good psuedo-intellectuals here.
And for caring, start with a basic ecology text. All is connected. Given attitudes like yours, all is collapsing, dying.
For starters, go for a simple blood test. Report back with how many industrial toxins are present, categorized by human health impact...carcinogens, endocrine disrupters, respiratory/reproductive toxins, cognitive impairment, etc...
As the Gulf dies, we and the future generations of all life die with it.
No way bro,,, i am invincible. i work out at the gym and at home on my soloflex. i also know the Earth is only 6000 years old and that God will provide for all those that are with him. this ecology stuff sounds sorta fishy to me. i get nervous around books as they are often the devils work. at least that is what my pastor tells me to think. plus, as i already mentioned, it is really hot out and my mind hurts when it gets much above 80 degrees. i am sure the Lord will make everything work just fine in the end..
Hah, true. And it snowed this year, so this climate change stuff is a bunch of steaming crap!
If you go that way, the Pope's had some great stuff out lately about ecologic sin! And if you're a Pope hater, that is evangelical Protestant, there's all sorts of "churches for climate change" stuff out there.
I could google all that and post here, but in the spirit of laziness, I just refer to it vaguely.
My two cents - churches for creation, good. Churches for climate change, bad.
Certainly "Earth", whatever that means, will be fine with or without us. Just depends on how long a time frame you adopt.
being a good american i have a really short time span/atention span and i am easily diverted. btw, what were we talking about?
Who knows - it's 5 o'clock somewhere. I just can't decide whether to go with a mercury fish sandwich or antibiotic/MRSA burger... EDIT - to go with my GMO beer of course.
Tough call.
A sense of humor. To wit!
Excellent!
from the previous thread
BP accused of 'buying academic silence'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-10731408
i dnt know what u guys are discussing above ....but does it have anything to do with some kind of methane explosion and extinction of 96% of worlds life???
Well, we've already committed to killing 50% of the world's life by the year 2100. So what's another 46% when we're already rolling?
Kinda.
The discussion involves the entire sea floor collapsing introducing frozen methane onto what Al Gore described as the core of the earth being millions of degrees fahrenheit. The resulatant steam explosion should be enough to do it ;-)
nmewn - I've just responded to you over here. Read it when you are fully awake. Take the time to understand what I'm saying. Then perhaps we can convince G.W. to take another stab at the 1099 law and adress the points I've raised in my response to you. I'm going to bed now. I should have gone eight hours ago.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/government-admits-health-care-bill-tax-...
Responding there, per your request.
A bit more to read now, below your post at the same link given above. I'll check back there to see if you have added anything more, but I've said my piece for now. It's probably a subject we need to check back in on in a year or so and have a dedicated discussion in its own thread.
I thought that's what Gore said to both of the massage therapists who just accused him of demanding the happy ending.
He get's confused. One minute it's a "fix this" as if something may or may not be broken, the next minute it's some sort of negative "chukara".
I'm waiting for a male masseuse to come forward...I'll be laughing so hard I won't be able to make an decent pun...LOL.
I though he asked for the FIRE FINGER?
https://www.llnl.gov/str/Durham.html
.
WHAT do you get when you combine water and swamp gas under low temperatures and high pressures? You get a frozen latticelike substance called methane hydrate, huge amounts of which underlie our oceans and polar permafrost. This crystalline combination of a natural gas and water (known technically as a clathrate) looks remarkably like ice but burns if it meets a lit match.More Work Ahead
Plenty of work remains to be done. The team plans to measure the molecular diffusion of gases through methane hydrate and to study special compounds that might suppress the formation of hydrates in cold pipelines. They also will do experiments to measure methane hydrate's thermal properties. Says Durham, "We already know that it is a very poor conductor of heat. If you hold a piece of it in your hand, it doesn't feel like ice at all. It almost feels like styrofoam."
A new heat exchanger installed in December at Livermore's ice physics laboratory allows Durham to heat samples from 180 to 260 K in about an hour, a process that used to take 24 hours. Durham notes, "Now we can do experiments much more quickly and thus can run a lot more experiments. Methane hydrate is a material with plenty of surprises, so there is no telling what we might discover next."
Hi Everyone.
We are approaching a nuclear anniversary of historic proportions.
Playing Prophet here:
The decision to deploy or not deploy a nuclear option will be taken or rather brought into the public discourse between 6th and the 9th of August.
The Matrix pulsed on 16th July, at precisely 11:29:45 UTC. So one knows that the echo is coming.
By August 15th, the GOM will be in much worse shape than it is today. Most worst case scenarios will be playing out at one level or another, peaking and falling.
Something nuclear this way comes. If you have the ability to influence people to move now, do it. Send something like ( http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2010/07/04/an-open-letter-to-all-gom-res... ) or write your own.
Get it to as many hands as possible. The more orderly we help people make it, the less power the givernment (!!!) will have. It is in direct proportion to the deterioration of law and order that the government wrests control.
Go on then. Enough talk. Time for some action.
How about a ZH Gulf Disaster relief fund, disbursed by trusted ZHers in the right places? Can be done.
Anyone?
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
We're Americans. We don't take decisions, we MAKE decisions. There isn't going to be a nuke because the cap has stopped the flow of oil. Go back and review Ixtoc and then post back if the sky is still falling. Horrible accident? Si! Unprecedented disaster? Not quite.
We will know shortly Economicmorphine.
Your handle is rather suggestive.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
> Go on then. Enough talk. Time for some action.
Indeed. My recommendation for your first move: run to the sink and douse the fire before your scalp gets burned.
Thanks for the compliment snakehead.
That is the zen way to live, every moment like your hair are on fire.
;-)
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
Uhh, the meth is killing us.
The whole damn place is a METH!
What can go wrong?
Why ask? Why not just stop and think for a moment. Deep breath. Calming, relaxing thoughts. Bunnies, rainbows, butterflies, puffy clouds....... Shhhhhhhhh.....
They've managed to absolutely, unequivocally, without question, no exceptions, none, nada, zilch, zip, zippidiedodahfucking naught, done a single fucking thing right. Nothing! Gibbs even said that they made a (note the "a") decision without full information. Without full information? Hows about a fucking defective 8 ball?
Everybody wants fucking reparations from America. Fine. Give 'em the fucking Gulf of Mexico, Southern Arizona, Dugway Proving Grounds, Free Nights in the Lincoln Bedroom, Guided Tours of Barney Frank's Nighttime Retreats Complete with Unused Soap Bar, Free Entry in the Annual Pick a Carrot From the Rose Garden Garden for Christ Drawing Contest, Last Ride the Space Shuttle Bunghole with the Muslim Peace Contingent before the Only People Left who can get to the Space Station are Russia and China, Free Houses in Detroit, Payday Loans With No Collateral, Never Ending Wall Street Bonus Pools, And maybe even an extra Bust of Churchill that they Forgot to Send Back to HRM the Queen in Exchange for that fucking iPod they gave her as a State Gift, a Reset Button for Russia that Works, And You're Asking What the Fuck Can Go Wrong?
Who Gives a Fuck Anymore?
(sobbing)
Very funny. Does the nightime retreat include hand sanitizer?
I almost choked on my coffee. That was well-written. Send to improv guys and time for youtube short.
Dugway? That gave me a chuckle. You must have some first hand experience with the place. My dad was a chemist there for the army for 30 years. Used to carry around nerve agent in plastic buckets.
I miss the real Rukeyser.
GW didn't do a good job of explaining Gale's statements. Gale suggests that it is possible that there are significant holes in the well casing, possibly caused during the original event that destroyed the rig. He suggests that these holes may be blocked at the moment by frozen methane hydrate (my comment: this ice, if it exists, must be in the ground around the well because the hot oil flowing up the well would have melted it in the past). He says that as the temperature and pressure build due to the cap, these ice crystals could melt (after which oil would flow out of the well and into the surrounding ground). However, BP claims the temperature is constant and not rising.
Best thing to do is read the original article (http://www.nola.com/news/gulf-oil-spill/index.ssf/2010/07/gas_seeps_not_...). Here are some more excerpts:
Meanwhile, Gale's mentor, Berkeley engineering professor Bob Bea, has very little confidence in what's been said publicly about the seeps.
He's troubled that we're just now hearing about seeps three kilometers away, because a survey of the seabed conducted before BP drilled its well didn't indicate anything like that.
"There was nothing that indicated the presence of such a seep," Bea said. "I wonder why we're just now finding that out?"
BP has yet to release other ROV video that Bea's study group requested more than a month ago about what may have been shots of nearby seeps.
Also, the mysterious second pipe that was revealed to be stuck in the blowout preventer when BP cut off the riser pipe a few weeks ago could have actually been a section of the liner material from the bottom part of the well, leaving open the possibility that an entire section of the well could be missing down below, Bea said. At this point, we don't know because the mysterious second pipe fell back down into the well last week when BP was removing equipment in preparation for the capping stack.
"I wish we had more information overall," Bea said, adding that the uncertain situation with the cap puts even more importance on the relief wells to permanently shut down the renegade Macondo well.
Status of the relief well:
Wells, the BP official, said Monday afternoon that the first relief well is at a depth of 17,862 feet. It's four feet to the side of the original well, and is "perfectly positioned" at the right angle to intercept it. On Wednesday and Thursday, Wells said, BP will run the casing and then will cement it. After it cures, the company will be ready to drill the final feet to intercept the well, hopefully by the end of July.
Two things:
- Do you believe that the hydrates blocking the theoretical holes are in contact with 140F oil and, if so, why would they still exist? I'm failing to see how chunks of hydrate could remain solid in contact with a shit-ton of heat and pressure on one side.
- The seeps could very well be a new phenomenon (from the movement within the reservoir) and their lack of presence on older scans doesn't mean poop.
If the chunk of hydrate were large enough, the part touching the hot oil would melt but the outer parts would remain cooled by the surroundings.
I was surprised that the original top hat cap (remember the first attempt at solving the problem?) got blocked by hydrate crystals since the hot oil should have melted them.
read link above..
http://planetforlife.com/dwphysics/index.html
.
"Let's do some calculations. BP says they collected 15,000 barrels of oil and flared 30 million cubic feet of natural gas on 9 June. That works out to be 2000 cubic feet of methane per barrel. There must have been 3.33 cubic feet of liquid methane accompanying each barrel of oil before expansion by a factor of 600. Let's take that as representative of Macondo oil.
A barrel of oil is 5.61 cubic feet. Macondo prospect oil looses 37 percent of its volume when it reaches sea level because the methane that was dissolved in it escapes as a gas.
Let's presume 36,000 barrels per day are going up a 20 inch pipe. That flow rate is in the middle of the range of estimates in mid June. That is 1,500 barrels or 8,415 cubic feet per hour. A length of 20 inch pipe 0.46 feet long will hold a cubic foot of oil. Multiply that by the number of cubic feet the pipe must move in an hour. That is 3857 feet per hour or about 0.73 miles per hour at the sea floor. Now let's figure out how fast the methane is moving. The pipe must carry 1,500 times 2000 cubic feet of gas per hour. Multiply that by 0.46 and you get 1,375,000 feet per hour. Divide that by the number of feet in a mile (5280) to get 260 miles per hour. Sea water, mud and oil are carried along in the methane hurricane. "Blowout" is an apt description.
A blowout is what happens when you lose control of an oilwell. "
.
so, the methane gas is "exploding" out of the oil and expanding very rapidly.
as it hits the containment apparatus the pressure increases sending it back
into the liquid then solid phase. crystals form.?
I don't think that the dissolving gas reduces the volume of oil significantly.
The oil molecules are very large and the gas molecules are very small. Imagine a glass of sand. Now you add some water to it. The volume doesn't increase at all.
Another example is water and alcohol. The combined volume is less than the individual volumes. A side effect is that this is an energetically better state. Translation: When you mix it, it heats up. When you separate it, it cools down.
Actually there can be a fairly significant difference in volume between what we call "reservoir barrels" meaning the volume the oil occupies in the subsurface and "stock tank barrels" meaning the volume occupied at atmospheric pressure and temperature. Most of that difference is the volatiles (mostly methane) coming out of solution.
I'm not saying your scenario happened.... but to go gas to liquid, pressure plays a role. To go liquid to solid, it is all about temperature (per the chart). Pressure is irrelevant.
here some better charts for methane. phase diagrams.
.
http://www.google.com/images?q=phase+diagram+methane&rls=com.microsoft:en-us:IE-SearchBox&oe=UTF-8&rlz=1I7RNTN_en&um=1&ie=UTF-8&source=univ&ei=4CNJTNG5H8P88Abby6i-Dg&sa=X&oi=image_result_group&ct=title&resnum=1&ved=0CCEQsAQwAA&biw=1345&bih=555
Methane is not the same as methane hydrate. Most of the phase diagrams you have linked to are for methane hydrate. You need to either drink or do drugs or post comments. But don't do all 3 at once. ;)
here a good one.
The National Methane Hydrates R&D Program
All About Hydrates - Necessary Conditions for Methane Hydrate Formation
http://www.netl.doe.gov/technologies/oil-gas/FutureSupply/MethaneHydrates/about-hydrates/conditions.htm
.
but the focus must include the transition
from methane liguid to gas to attempt to answer "what could go wrong". imo.
Are you talking about inside the well bore (where we have already agreed (I think) that it doesn't exist) or outside the well bore and on the ocean floor?
i was thinking about the entire well structure with all it's
possible defects from sea floor to reservoir and through it's
defects, leaking or gushing, interacting with it's environment,
and it's contents dynamically changing.
wondering, if given time, phase changes of methane gas to liquid
or liquid to gas could start to take place and start ripping the hell
out of everything down there until some sort of equilibrium is achieved.
that is what i was thinking, suggesting.
the a/b well scenario below looks fascinating and now i need information
on methane hydrate sublimation if this is somehow relevant?
http://kalevleetaru.com/Publish/Methane_Hydrate.pdf
Two at once is still good, right?
Reductio - you know that second pipe was not in the top of the BOP when they removed the flange, right?
Your comments about the methane hydrate could only exist outside the casing I agree with, however; natural methane seeps out of the sea floor as a gas and becomes a hydrate upon encountering the cold seawater. Therefore I infer that temperatures below the surface (regardless of oil well presence) are not cold enough to form the hydrate solid. Make sense?
JR - you guys are having a detailed discussion here (and it's actually about what the real facts are - stunning development at ZH). I don't have time this morning to check the charts and weigh in - but I do want to point out one mistake here. The hydrates DO form in the shallow sediment column. The deposits are mappable on seismic data, the sediment temperature at the seafloor will be identical to the water temp (which in deepwater will be near 32 F) and increase slowly as you go deeper. There are points in the shallow parts of the sediments where the phase relations are stable for hydrates and they form in the pore spaces there. You are correct that any methane that reaches the seafloor and seeps out will form hydrate upon encountering the seawater. My understanding is those float. Regardless - the hydrates that the Energy department (and research scientists) are investigating in relation to the ancient destabilization hypothesis and as future energy sources are held within the shallow sediments.
FYI - you may be interested to know that in addition to deepwater methane hydrate deposits there is one other setting where very large amounts occur - below permafrost in artic areas.
not for long
http://news.discovery.com/earth/methane-leak-permafrost-arctic.html