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ABC Consumer Comfort Index Drops To -50, New 2010 Low And Just Four Point Above All Time Record Low
Not a good day for consumer confidence. First, the vastly irrelevant Conference Board crashed and burned earlier, dropping nearly 10 points below consensus expectations after its only driver, the market, turned down in January, showing just how unreliable this index is, and now the ABC Consumer Comfort came in at the "dreaded" -50 level (and don't get us started on UMich, whose entire rolodex consists of the home phone numbers of Blankfein, Dimon and Pandit). The is the lowest reading for the index since -51 recorded in October 2009, and just 4 points above its 24 year record low. Of the three main readings in the index, the Personal Finance component declined even as Buying Conditions and the National Economy both stayed at depressed levels. Notably, the racial gap among the respondents who view the economy as being in total shambles has all but disappeared, even as increasingly more Democrats perceive the economy as worse off than Republicans. Funny, isn't the president a Democrat?
From the press release:
The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index hit the dreaded -50 mark for the first time in nearly four months this week, a mere four points from its record low in 24 years of weekly polls. While the change isn’t statistically significant from recent levels, -50 is a psychological barrier – and not a happy one – for the index. This marks just the 25th time in 1,260 weekly polls the CCI has been this low. Remarkably, 23 of them have occurred in the past 16 months. Figure on a scale of 100 to -100, the index has averaged -48 so far this year, matching its 2009 average, its worst full year on record. Compare those to its long-term average, -13, much less its best year, +29 in 2000, and its best week, +38 in January that year. Those days seem far away.
The federal government has reported seasonally adjusted increases in initial jobless claims (up 31,000 to 473,000 last week) and wholesale prices (up 1.4 percent in January). Neither helps.
Another consumer confidence measure, by the Conference Board, startled Wall Street with a drop today, but it’s done monthly rather than weekly. The ABC CCI hit a short-term peaklet, -41, the first week of January, then sharply surrendered ground.
Drilling down on the various index constituents and stratifications:
CURRENT INDEX – The index is based on Americans’ ratings of the national economy, their personal finances and the buying climate. As has been true since early 2008, the current economy gets the most negative assessment of the three: Only 8 percent rate it positively, 30 points below the long-term average and in single digits for 13 weeks straight. Just 24 percent call it a good time to spend money, 13 points worse than the long-term average. And 43 percent rate their personal finances positively, 14 points below its long-term average. Half or more have rated their own finances negatively for 88 of the last 94 weeks.
GROUPS – As usual, the index is higher among better-off Americans, but it’s been negative across all groups for 52 weeks straight, the longest such run in available data since 1990. It’s -4 among those with the highest incomes, -65 among those with the lowest; -40 among people who’ve attended college vs. -66 among those who never finished high school; -44 among homeowners but -67 among renters (their lowest since October); and -43 among men vs. -55 among women (tied with last week for their lowest since November).
The usual racial gap has been smaller recently and essentially disappeared this week, with the index at -49 among whites and -48 among blacks; long-term, by contrast, blacks have been less positive by an average 28 points.
The Republican-Democratic gap likewise has been narrower than usual this year, but widened in the last two weeks; the index now is -39 among Republicans vs. -56 among Democrats and -50 among independents. The 17-point gap this week compares with an average 6-point gap this year and 18 points last year, vs. 41 points in 2008 and 32 points long-term.
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Flatline.
"Funny, isn't the president a Democrat?"...no, he's a socialist.
Potato, potahto
Why do some of the richest people in the world support Socialism, i.e., Communism? Why did some of the richest bankers in America support Lenin? Why did they help fund the Communist takeover of China?
"The Communist Party, the repository of ultimate power in the Soviet Union," wrote former US Foreign Service official Charles W. Thayer, "is not a party at all in the western sense. It is not 'a body of persons forming one side of a contest,’ since the other side survives, if at all, only in Siberia or in Jail. ‘The place for [opposition parties],’ Lenin once said, ‘is in prison…’"
The organizational principle of the party, as once set forth by Lenin, is "democratic-centralism." "This Humpty-Dumpty contradiction in terms (democracy equals rule by the people, but centralism equals rule by the center) means that authority comes from the top. Lenin in fact stated bluntly that the proletariat, in whose name he ostensibly ruled, could not determine policy. They must be led…"
Lenin proclaimed that from the start Soviet industry would be run on the old Marxian socialist principle: “From each according to his ability; to each according to his needs.”
What is the hidden force that makes non-Socialists in America protect Socialists and keep them in office? A famous example is Keynes’ sidekick at Bretton Woods—Harry Dexter White, Under Secretary of the U.S. Treasury during WWII. When the FBI informed he was a Soviet agent, instead of being arrested, he was promoted to Executive Director of the U.S. mission to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The current managing director of the IMF, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, is a member of The Socialist Party.
Did not Dr. Carroll Quigley's Tragedy and Hope expose one of the best-kept secrets in the world, that is, the elite's collectivist dreams for a one-world society when the "network" achieves its goals?
POLITICO reported on February 2, 2010 that a new poll of self-identified Republicans "shows a large slice of the GOP believes President Barack Obama is a 'socialist' who was not born in this country, should be impeached, wants the terrorists to win and only won the 2008 election because ACORN ‘stole’ it for him.
“The survey of 2003 self-identified Republicans, who typically trend much more conservative than voters who “lean” Republican, was conducted by Research 2000 for the liberal blog Daily Kos.
“According to the poll, 63 percent of Republicans believe Obama is a socialist; 39 percent think Obama should be impeached; 24 percent said Obama wants ‘the terrorists to win’; and 31 percent agreed with the statement that Obama is ‘a racist who hates white people'….
“Meanwhile, nearly a quarter of the Republicans polled, 23 percent, want their state to secede from the union.”
Of course, one must consider the source, and who posited the questions, but
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0210/32384.html#ixzz0gPPWTuek
no, he's a puppet.
Bullshit, he's is a corporatist.
Nothing but big business baby -- go big or go home!
Ask yourself when was the last time any of you piss ants received attention or a dinner invitation to the White House.
What a coward this Oblama is.
Consumer comfort??
http://cohort11.americanobserver.net/latoyaegwuekwe/multimediafinal.html
consumers, ? where? all i see is citizens
Touche!!!
We all tend to use that definition loosely... Bad form..
If he were a "socialist" (skeptic...) poor people wouldn't feel like the crap gets kicked out of them every time he talks about how they "saved" the economy (meaning the banks).
I would say he's a conventional politician who talks a mean streak and accomplishes absolutely nothing.
Bingo - if he was a socialist at least we'd have something for our 3 trillion dollars
I vote for "Fascist"
I vote for ZH to remove the comments section since 98% of them are totally embarrassing.
Go away.
I vote for not allowing Anonymous posts
I've been asking for that for ages.
i don't normally respond to anon posters, but the power of your counterargument why obama is not a socialist/fascist/puppet/typical politician was really something to behold. i mean, such articulation and clear-sighted analysis is rare to find, especially on the internet. congrats to you, sir. <applause>
your guy won and he sucks just as bad as every other politician out there so people are calling him on it. deal with it.
Technically right--government takeover of business.
special interest takeover of government
Bingo!
In good ol' fashioned socialism, the gummint owned the large corporations. In socialism's latest incarnation, the large corporations own the gummint.
Ooops! That was meant to be a response to delacroix's comment.
+1
Edna,
"he's a conventional politician who talks a mean streak and accomplishes absolutely nothing"
Not so fast, he has alienated a large portion of the independents that voted for him on the "hope for change" .... quite an accomplishment this early in his Presidency.
If he were a socialist, he would be taxing the rich, not giving them more tax breaks.
Heh, in the meantime, despite the hubby being unemployed, the girls are still fighting their way to get into Whole Foods and Home Depot and P.F. Changs.....
I don't get the Chang thang. I've eaten there twice and the grub was as greasy as the Atlanta Varsity.
They must be using their BAC credit cards at these places because that POS is still above 15 and no one can figure out why.
You forgot Starbucks.
Whole Foods is opening on Maui tomorrow. That is sure to juice up the top line. (sarcasm) Home Depot has been slashing prices too. That can't be adding to margins in China.
PF Changs? The Chinese don't do bistro. Why can't they get the stereotype right on that joint? I cant get past the bistro thingy.
i was just at my local whole foods (they have really good tofu). four homeless just sitting around chatting it up with each other on the outside tables and chairs. love it they can go inside and graze their entire days food needs with the samples. i don't think WFMI has the balls to kick them out. they just stand in the aisles acting like the rest of us dumb phucks label reading writing. you can smell the smoke emitting from their body and hair. i love it, they have found their heaven.
Pictures of broads and graphs.?
Fuck it....
There were graphs?
Charts...Graphs..... WTF
I'll take the one second from the left... I mean, fourth from the left. Umm, second from the right.
What's this thread about?
I think it's about how we can look at cute girls at work... :)
Im just curious - Does this image represent the relative percentage of US employment on a racial basis???
Obama is neither Democrat nor socialist - HE'S A PUPPET. Just like Dubya, Billy C., Bush I. etc., etc.; he has no true ideology save serving the whims of the puppet/money/military masters. Word to the wise: quit using outmoded vernacular - democrat, republican, conservative, liberal, right-wing, etc. It only serves to further divide and conquer the masses.
+13
Thoreau is self aware and free of the matrix.
Nikki, north of Detroit...
Make that "Word to the unwise". The wise don't spend their days listening to the 'pundits of the airwaves' useless polarizing drivel.
Otherwise, +1000 :)
i am a puppett just stringing along,
it beats being strung out or strung up.
Gosh this is serious, but i have to see the humor in it , or the anger arises.
People lose confidence over time. The longer this econo-kabuki-theater plays itself out, the less likely any of us feels like someone is in charge who gives a foosh.
Of course, nobody in charge does give a foosh, so over time we simply come into alignment with crushing reality.
As such the confidence figures are a measure of how well the propaganda machine is running. Seems like people are getting hip to the spin, and not buying it.
Next stop; fires and barricades.
Next stop is an internment camp for your ass.
You mean organ donation camp, don't you?
Oh , foosh it! This is really fooshed.
Yea couger_w i really like it. Just shy of offensive.. Add a finger if needed
Some folks have forgotten that in reference to the numbers being put out, be they confidence, housing, loan, default or whatever, that what we are witnessing is the best massaging of data that can be produced.
You simply cannot hide empty retail space. Word of mouth and eyewitnessing are starting to not only refute the propanganda but IMHO inflame the folks who are smarter than the pols think.
People don't need to fully understand the complex issues. Eventually everyone can smell the rat when the bugga is belly up and ant infested.
Once that game is up nothing can be said to reverse the confidence crisis they are so eagar to squash. I'm looking forward to it.
e^69
"Funny, isn't the president a Democrat?"
no, he is an indonesian. www.obamacrimes.com
love him or hate him this is really worth a read, it is long (winded). he refers to the D word a lot.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1993-How-Long-Before-You-Wak...
I stand firmly in the camp that postulates that QE was in reality only a short-term effort aimed at manipulating public perception ie consumer confidence.
If one reviews basic Keynesian doctrine, it is important for the purveyors of aggregate demand to simulate the effects of individual behavior (greed) in order to spike monetary velocity. Absent the collective mania that typically accompanies mass leveraging events (aka asset bubbles), people tend to stand around and wait for the other shoe to drop, which is exactly what is happening right now.
Hence the need for green shoots, the massive coordinated state run propaganda campaign executed in conjunction with an engineered stock market rise. The practice of magically producing liquidity via printing (QE), thereby forcing artificial interest rate ceilings in both government & agency debt, was the all-important fuel.
But, unlike what many seem to believe, QE could never really achieve true debt monetization (inflating the debt away), simply because the $USD is subject to a hard oil peg. Since QE has failed in its designed task of manipulating consumer confidence, it will be discarded.
At some point, perhaps looming shortly, we are going to have to face the music and accept the deflationary tsunami. I think the Dems understand this and are bailing from Nov so that the Reps get to deal with the fall-out.
Agree.
Now what if - just saying - what if the fall-out means the odds of a Fed audit will increase and increase substancially. Considering conventional wisdom puts odds at very very low and elections have consequences...
From what i have learned manipulation is a form of black magic. So is advertising.
When a mother manipulates a child for its own safety, then it is done in universal cause and no harm will come.
But when we manipulate others for personal gain, we invariably pay larger dues later.
Nothing is free ,all is a trade off.
In cristianity its called reaping what you have sown
In the east its called karma
some say what goes around comes around
In any case we all pay because we allowed it!
Theres personal karma, theres national karma
Good luck to us all
The 'D' word? My take-away impression is that Denninger has to come to accept the inevitability of the 'R' word, and it ain't recession.
He & Mish, while appearing to be good guys at heart, simply cannot abandon their mid-western roots. As such, they seem to accept things at face value; for instance, good vs evil, cops & robbers, government legitimacy by consent of the governed, etc, etc.
Neither seems to understand, nor accept, the stark reality that the existing federal government is an occupying force. Not only do they not represent the Peoples' interests, they are in many ways governing no differently than if we had been defeated by one of our various foes.
Come to think of it, we have been defeated by our foes. But the fat lady has yet to sing; they have won some initial battles, but the end result is far from clear.
Denninger's real fault in his mid-western values is that he thinks there is a justice system that just needs to be awakened to right the wrongs he talks about. He and ZH's very own Marla refuse to believe the obvious and undeniable truth.... There is no justice system coming to the rescue. It is down to pitch forks and torches... Flying planes into buildings... maybe a good random killing... Frank, Dodd, Pelosi... wake up, the American dream is over.
Come to think of it, we have been defeated by our foes. But the fat lady has yet to sing; they have won some initial battles, but the end result is far from clear.
So... what happens if they crash the world economy? Do they use simple algebra to cancel sovereign debt? Do they throw debtors into prison and make them slaves? Where do they get the money to run their gestapo?
Do they crack down on the internet so we cannot talk about it? Does it matter, if banks and markets are closed and no one can trade anyway?
If we've been defeated by our foes, and I agree with that, then what do they want? Our organs? Our selves enslaved?
Just asking... seems like a reasonable question. Anyone ever hear of "Report from Iron Mountain"? Seems to fit...
Rise of the Austrians?
Was in HD today, counted about six people, I spent $10 on a small item. They had two cashiers, one was watching the self check-out lanes. Why the stock is at $32 is the effect of easy money for the gangstas on Wall Street has nothing to do with reality.......now back to American idol, dumb, de, dumb, dumb, dumb.
Must be the sun spots... ;)
http://tinyurl.com/ylrad67
Stocks exude strength, resilience, climbing a wall of worry; bonds a tug-of-war between deflation/inflation, maybe now stagflation. Consumers show fear, apprehension, indecision that is solidifying. At -50 on the index, just a slight nudge may cause a more sustained breakdown in this index.
"Not a good day for consumer confidence" - get use to saying that
WTF you have all been suckered in to the democrat vs. republican fight. Its all brainwashing is the first move in a long game to dominate and enslave this nation ..... divide and conquer. DONT buy it. Does it really matter if Obama is a D or R? As long as the banks have captured the US govt. it does not matter who is president.
Its funny, in front of the camera the usual suspects come out and bash Obama when behind closed doors they, along with the bankers, are laughing so hard at the fact that they have gotten away with this sham that they have all wet their pants
CON sumer CON fidence..
This sort of bs won't do much to help confidence.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-insure24-2010feb24,0,578204.story
Anthem Blue Cross plans to go ahead with rate hikes in California Executives at the health insurer and its parent firm, WellPoint, defend increases of as much as 39% in a hearing before an Assembly panel.gfi, me thinks our fearless leader and his cronies gave the insurance providers the silent go-ahead to raise their rates. luckily for us, health care reform will save us from the big bad insurance companies... and not a minute too soon. how convenient, eh? ;)
But but but - the CBO is telling us today that the Spendulus actually created upwards of 2.1 MILLION jobs! That's right - they didn't even bother with the "saved-or-created" silliness, either.
Aren't you feeling stimulated??
Bunk.
Read FDR's speeches & fireside chats. He makes Obama look like Regan.
Were it not for the 'socialist' safety net of SS, medicare, Medicaid, unemployment, workman comp, etc., this great recession would already have led to a revolution in the US.
Obama is mad right of where FDR was.
Just read those fireside chats and tell me otherwise.
No no no, you see if Rush Limbaugh or some other moron throws around the words "socialist" all the time they must be right. The dictionary and rational thought are for all those liberal queers ruining God's Country.
I agree, those programs are hindering our progress.
Come on, you guys. A negative recovery is still a recovery.
You didn't get the memo?
Three million jobs created or saved. I did get the memo and I am so glad to know that the bad stuff is behind us.
He is not socialist, he just saved and recapitalized a lot of big business at the cost of taxpayers. If he didn't, nothing would be left standing, thanks to our brilliant CEO's and Harvard MBA's. Is it definition of socialist?
Spendulus just reshuffled bad - worse - worst, in whatever order you prefer.
Don't Worry be Happy. Here he comes to save the day, its Obama, he's on his way. Up in the sky, its a bird, its a plane, its Obamaman. Were saved.
Whats that I see over there peeking out under the trash can? A green shoot. haha!
Thanks, now I have that song stuck in my head...
When the number is not good, what do CNBC bobbleheads say? Something is wrong with the number. There is an error. I just heard it!
The way to get the US government back is to close Fraud Street.
Get rid of the fraud machine.
Didn't the Greeks muse that radical democracy is a perverse sort of government? and that dictatorship follows? Fuck maybe the Chinese will morph into a Confucian benevolent philosopher kingship which could be an interesting model and perhaps Ron Paul as dictator to return us to Jeffersonian principles?
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