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ABC Consumer Comfort Index Drops Again As "88% Of Respondents Think Economy Is Still In A Recession"

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The one index that just refused to correlate to the market, and the UMichigan Index, and the Confidence Board, was released today, and once again hit a 2010 low of -49. The index has been in a -48 to -49 range for the past five weeks. The primary reason for this week's drop was due to a 6 point decline in the personal finance component, from -6 to -12, the lowest reading since December 6, with not much change in the other two readings: National Economy and Buying Conditions. It is somewhat confounding that this index persistently "refuses" to go up with all the other self-reinforcing confidence indices out there.Maybe this is the reason: from the report "Eighty-eight percent think that the economy, despite what economists say to the contrary, is still in a recession."

From the press release:

Consumer confidence is on a cold streak, locked in place since the beginning of the year at very near its worst-ever rating – and more than three in four think the economy is stalled or will decline in coming months.

The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index stands at -49 on its scale of +100 to -100, in a 2-point range and without significant movement for the past six weeks. It is hovering just 5 points from its all-time low, -54 last January, and is far worse than its long-term average, -13 in 24 years of weekly polls.

A separate, forward-looking measure finds little in the way of optimism for the economy’s future. Just 23 percent think things are getting better and 77 percent say the economy is staying the same or getting worse – a chilling assessment given the very low ratings of current sentiment.

And the clincher:

A key indicator from last week’s ABC News/Washington Post poll underscores these persistent negative feelings. Eighty-eight percent think that the economy, despite what economists say to the contrary, is still in a recession. And on a more personal note, 53 percent say that based on their experience the economy has not begun to recover.

Propaganda fail.

 


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Tue, 02/16/2010 - 20:16 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 02/16/2010 - 21:22 | Link to Comment Stranger
Stranger's picture

You can't save the system. It is going to collapse and there is nothing that can stop that.

 

The most you can do is to stop it from collapsing on you.

 

The U.S. dollar is doomed. Solution: switch to a different money. Government forbids it? Solution: organize opposition to the government so they can't stop you.

Life is simple now.

Wed, 02/17/2010 - 04:52 | Link to Comment jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

organizing opposition to the government so they can't stop you is probably not the simplest (or safest) way to switch to a different money.

Wed, 02/17/2010 - 11:57 | Link to Comment Stranger
Stranger's picture

I didn't say it was easy, I said it was simple to understand.

Tue, 02/16/2010 - 20:17 | Link to Comment Going Down
Going Down's picture

 

Okay, folks. When do we start using the "D" word? I suppose when U-6 climbs to 20% or to Great Depression levels of 25%?

 

"F"

 

Wed, 02/17/2010 - 11:09 | Link to Comment Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

The economy can never deflate.  Why?  Because the goldbugs say so.
We're no different than Zimbabwe after all.

Right Chumba?

Wed, 02/17/2010 - 23:19 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 02/16/2010 - 20:21 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 02/16/2010 - 23:02 | Link to Comment drwells
drwells's picture

Yep. We're further from reality than we were in 2006. Prepare accordingly.

Wed, 02/17/2010 - 01:44 | Link to Comment ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

I see small business failures really piling up where I live, at a faster and faster pace, restaurants, salons, specialty retail, small service shops, all failing quickly.

Tue, 02/16/2010 - 20:28 | Link to Comment BS Inc.
BS Inc.'s picture

Well, it's no damn surprise. The press talked down the economy during all of Bush's two terms, so of course when the economy's really in the crapper (just focusing on current reality, not the longer-term causes of it and whether or not the Bush years were a "false prosperity", so don't get your panties in a bunch Bush-haters) people are going to say so, despite what the various media and government sources say.

It's actually much easier to tell someone that something good is bad than vice versa.

Tue, 02/16/2010 - 21:45 | Link to Comment Kayman
Kayman's picture

Say BS Inc.

You certainly are true to your moniker.

So let's hear some happy talk. Green Shoots. Greener Shoots. More Green Shoots. Much More Green Shoots. Very Much More Green Shoots. Lots of Very Much More Green Shoots. Lots and Lots of Very Much More Green Shoots. Humungous Amounts of Green Shoots.

Greatbighuge Amounts of Green Shoots.

Now, for a brief intermission: WE REGRET TO INFORM YOU THAT THE ECONOMY HAS COLLAPSED. And back to our main program.

Green Shoots.... More Green Shoots...

If you would like "Good News" get two doctors to sign you in for a couple of weeks. The food is adequate and everyone you meet seems happy. And maybe you can find Dubya's padded room !

Wed, 02/17/2010 - 00:11 | Link to Comment BS Inc.
BS Inc.'s picture

I think you missed my point, which was that now, when the government and media would like people to have confidence, it's more difficult for people to be confident because not only is the economy in the crapper, but it's also in the crapper relative to an economy which everyone was told was bad, so the current economy seems even worse despite the talk of "recovery".

Hate Bush all you want, MANY people will, superficially, but will, nonetheless, look back at his tenure as a better economic time than the present.

Anyway, I think all the talk about "animal spirits" and confidence are overrated. It doesn't matter if I'm "confident" or not if I don't have a job or if my mortgage is eating up so much of my income that I can't do anything but stay home. The only thing that will restore confidence is debt being written off to restore actual cash flows to consumers and away from banks.

Wed, 02/17/2010 - 00:49 | Link to Comment 35Pete
35Pete's picture

Ahh, the ole' "Yeah!, but Obama is more bad than Bush". 

Loosely translated: Two buses are headed for a cliff. I'll take the slower bus". 

Now if we can just get some more Richard Shelby Jim Leach, and Phil Gramme types elected we'll all be sittin' pretty with freedom and liberty for all! 

/sarcasm

Wed, 02/17/2010 - 00:56 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Yes, the lesser of two evils is still evil.

Wed, 02/17/2010 - 01:09 | Link to Comment BS Inc.
BS Inc.'s picture

How you get that from my post is your problem, not mine. The debt cycle transcends any notion of electoral politics which has been operative in the US for a long time, i.e. neither party really understands the debt deflation dynamic, or, if they understand it, aren't doing much about it.

If you don't think the media was downplaying the economy during the Bush years to make him look bad, that's also your problem. Clearly, things which were considered awful during the Bush years became signs of recovery during the first year of Obama's tenure. That's just a fucking fact anyone with a pair of eyes in their heads can see by reading.

So, take your fucking sarcasm and stick where your head is, up your ass. Got it?

Wed, 02/17/2010 - 05:04 | Link to Comment jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

on a related and possibly less controversial note, the "things which were considered awful during the Bush years became (at least o.k./good things) during the first year of Obama's tenure."  (wars, secret detention, political control of doj, rendition, crony capitalism, sale of the people's interests to corporations for campaign contributions, use of state secrets protections to cover up crimes).  i think we can all agree on that. 

Wed, 02/17/2010 - 11:07 | Link to Comment Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

How dare people say bad things about Bush!!!

He just started two wars and drove the economy that was prosperous off of a cliff!

Or was it the "drive by" media that tanked the economy, only to later blame it on Bush?

I think that it was the drive bys.  Mega Dittos, BS!!!

Tue, 02/16/2010 - 20:28 | Link to Comment deadhead
deadhead's picture

Thanks for continuing to report on the ABC poll Tyler.

Tue, 02/16/2010 - 20:29 | Link to Comment john_connor
john_connor's picture

TD,

Unrelated, but can you provide a PIIGS or STUPID cds update?  It seems this has been swept under the rug when cds (and sovereign bond spreads) should be widening.  My bad if Spanish intelligence gets on your case.

JC.

Tue, 02/16/2010 - 20:40 | Link to Comment Reductio ad Absurdum
Reductio ad Absurdum's picture

That chart makes it look like we're in the earlier stages of a few years of "prosperity." Look at the chart around 1991 and 2003 -- sharp multi-year drop followed by slow movement upward, the same position it's in now. Would expect it to reach about -20 in 2012 if history repeats.

Tue, 02/16/2010 - 20:42 | Link to Comment deadhead
deadhead's picture

one could argue that it has a h & s.......

Tue, 02/16/2010 - 22:59 | Link to Comment SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

Back then, we had manufacturing jobs (heck, we had jobs!), the consumer had boundless debt capacity, house prices were mega-cheap, the Feds had loads of debt capacity, and the economy had a whole tech-boom decade to look forward to.

 

What have we now? Outsourced jobs, EVERY level of the country loaded with debt, huge unemployment, SHRINKING incomes, no new industry to drive the growth.

 

Save your pennies, the country is in big trouble.

Wed, 02/17/2010 - 00:11 | Link to Comment Lionhead
Lionhead's picture

No argument is required for the massive Head & shoulders pattern on this weekly chart. It is most telling as the measured move from the head is literally off the chart.

http://tinyurl.com/yl8yj7c

I'm assuming that the data input is untainted by any governmental/statistical shenanigans. The "big lie" program is not gaining traction.

Tue, 02/16/2010 - 20:45 | Link to Comment Zippyin Annapolis
Zippyin Annapolis's picture

The real unemployment rate is around 17%--figuring in discouraged workers--we have replaced inventory and burned through trillions in "stimulus" and well--now what?

 

--and I guess the peeps get it--will the politicos (answer --no)

Tue, 02/16/2010 - 20:50 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

WTF is wrong with all these pessimists?!?!!?

Dude, Wall Street got RECORD BONUSES.

You are supposed to life your lives vicariously through them just like entertainers and athletes!

Tue, 02/16/2010 - 21:19 | Link to Comment Stranger
Stranger's picture

There are much fewer people working on Wall Street than there used to be.

Tue, 02/16/2010 - 21:49 | Link to Comment Kayman
Kayman's picture

They "work" on Wall Street. And I always thought it was scheming...

Tue, 02/16/2010 - 21:21 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

But even Tiger's got it rough. Bimbo lawsuits, alimony, endorsement losses, tourney money gone. Before long the Hamptons will be flooded with out of work celebs and pols. This is serious now, dammit. 

Tue, 02/16/2010 - 22:20 | Link to Comment Kayman
Kayman's picture

Geez,

And here I thought I had it rough with Revenues down 60% last year.

Thanks Rainman.

Wed, 02/17/2010 - 00:52 | Link to Comment 35Pete
35Pete's picture

They can afford the high quality heroin to kill the pain. 

I have to rely on Tester's model glue and a huff bag to escape this shithole reality. 

Tue, 02/16/2010 - 21:00 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 02/16/2010 - 22:23 | Link to Comment Kayman
Kayman's picture

Now don't you be giving me none of that simple math stuff.  Unless its differentiation with saddle points, I ain't believing it.

 

Tue, 02/16/2010 - 23:19 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 02/17/2010 - 01:02 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 02/17/2010 - 05:10 | Link to Comment jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

still the highest in the "developed" world, is it not?

Tue, 02/16/2010 - 23:21 | Link to Comment deadhead
deadhead's picture

233303...interesting way to look at it and thank you.

we should probably add percentage of retirees on social security and medicare.......

Tue, 02/16/2010 - 21:05 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 02/16/2010 - 21:31 | Link to Comment chet
chet's picture

Where do you think the S&P would be right now if the market weren't rigged?  Based on the confidence of retail investors.  Would it have rebounded from last March at all?

Tue, 02/16/2010 - 22:10 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 02/17/2010 - 11:02 | Link to Comment Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

I was looking at some solar charts yesterday, and a lot of them have bullish setups in the technicals...

I was like... "Huh... maybe Leo's not retarded."

Tue, 02/16/2010 - 21:32 | Link to Comment Dark Helmet
Dark Helmet's picture

CAPTCHA : 100 minus 88 equals how many people have their heads up their asses.

Tue, 02/16/2010 - 22:06 | Link to Comment Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

Tue, 02/16/2010 - 22:06 | Link to Comment Kayman
Kayman's picture

China slipped in the Trojan Horse (Walmart), lead by their inside man (Jack Welch- hey lets Six Sigma them with bullshit like "outsourcing"), and have now crippled America.

The country is leaderless, a political elite feigning intelligence, while the country decays.

Hey People- we have the solution to the debt problem- lots more debt.  We have a solution to the jobs problem- keep letting crap in from China, and lets jawbone them some more about that  currency thing....

We need leadership, not another bought-and-paid-for talking head like Obama, Dubya, and give me a break- Palin....

Wed, 02/17/2010 - 02:01 | Link to Comment Dirtt
Dirtt's picture

Repectfully I dig where Ruductio is coming from but the one hugely overlooked wild card was not present when ....

 

the "chart makes it look like we're in the earlier stages of a few years of "prosperity." Look at the chart around 1991 and 2003 -- sharp multi-year drop followed by slow movement upward, the same position it's in now. Would expect it to reach about -20 in 2012 if history repeats."

Markets love gridlock.  Okay. What about political upheaval.  Threats of prosecution. Grand jury testimony. Audit the Fed. Major sweeping overhaul of the banking system.  Scott Brown had no idea what he was doing at the same time knowing exactly what he was doing.  He did what he thought was his job.  Put a steel door in front of Thelma & Louis. Oh yeah.  And shut down the largest racket ever perpetrated on contemporary civilization. (F**K CLIMATE SCIENCE)

If November pans out the way I think it will 2012 will look closer XX12 than 1991 and 2003.  And 2011 will look like XX11. That does not sound like a third bottom.  That sounds like a new island bottom with a horrid rectangle sideways pattern until the newcomers in DC - the grown ups - take cues from the voice of reason.  God knows there is plenty of that at ZH.  This site is innovative in many ways.

If you don't get involved in the political system this year then your opinion will never matter.

 

Pull more than your weight.

 

Tue, 02/16/2010 - 22:11 | Link to Comment bugs_
bugs_'s picture

88 p p p ercent??? It makes one's c c c contrarian t t t twitch act up.

Tue, 02/16/2010 - 22:58 | Link to Comment Cookie
Cookie's picture

You can fool all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time....

Tue, 02/16/2010 - 23:05 | Link to Comment drwells
drwells's picture

Lincoln was too modest. If there's anything the last decade taught me, it's that you can, in fact, fool damn near all of the people, all the fucking time.

Wed, 02/17/2010 - 00:11 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 02/16/2010 - 23:36 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 02/16/2010 - 23:53 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 02/17/2010 - 00:46 | Link to Comment What a mess_man
What a mess_man's picture

So show us the way to profits and fortunes oh wise anon one.  The market will continue to go up until it doesn't, and that day draws closer by the hour.  You stay in the casino if you choose, but anyone who can't see the structural problems and global imbalances now reaching an apex after years of reckless finance and failed politics is a damn fool.

Wed, 02/17/2010 - 00:58 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Jim Cramer, we already told you that you are not welcome here!

Wed, 02/17/2010 - 10:29 | Link to Comment Postal
Postal's picture

What?! Next you'll ban Kudlow...

[/sarcasm]

Wed, 02/17/2010 - 06:17 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 02/17/2010 - 00:31 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 02/17/2010 - 01:01 | Link to Comment glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

Was there ever any doubt?

All we need now is for NBER to come out and say that the recession has ended. Cough [bullshit] cough.

I just love all those graphs that already show the recession as having ended. Certainly if there hadn't been any govt stimulator / porkulous spending and we saw some sign things were improving I would be more optimistic, but when the govt spends so much and the decline continues you know it's bad even when others are screaming green shoots.

And for all those who like the fallback position of, "it would have been worse had we done nothing," I got news for ya, debt don't repay itself, and I'm already taxed enough.

Wed, 02/17/2010 - 01:23 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

You can fool 88 percent of the people some of the time and 12 percent of the people all the time?

Wed, 02/17/2010 - 01:53 | Link to Comment JR
JR's picture

Recession for the people finally comes down to where all the money is going in this New Economy and one of the major areas where it’s going is public employee retirement programs. Governments can’t cut if they don’t cut where the big money is. As for budget cuts, here are excerpts from New Jersey’s new governor Chris Christie’s Bold Budget Speech Lays It All On the Line from the Feb. 16 Rush Limbaugh transcript:

"The special interests have already begun to scream their favorite word, which, coincidentally, is my nine-year-old son's favorite word when we are making him do something he knows is right but does not want to do -- 'unfair.'  Let's tell our citizens the truth -- today, right now -- about what failing to do strong reforms costs them.  One state retiree, 49 years old, paid, over the course of his entire career, a total of $124,000 towards his retirement pension and health benefits. What will we pay him?" and I had this yesterday "$3.3 million in pension payments over his life and nearly $500,000 for health care benefits -- a total of $3.8m on a $120,000 investment. Is that fairA retired teacher paid $62,000 towards her pension and nothing -- yes, nothing -- for full family medical, dental and vision coverage over her entire career.

"What will we pay her?  $1.4 million in pension benefits and another $215,000 in health care benefit premiums over her lifetime. Is it 'fair' for all of us and our children to have to pay for this excess?  The total unfunded pension and medical benefit costs [in New Jersey] are $90 billion. We would have to pay...$7 billion per year to make them current. We don't have that money -- you know it and I know it. What has been done to our citizens by offering a pension system we cannot afford and health benefits that are 41% more expensive than the average fortune 500 company's costs is the truly unfair part of this equation. ... Suburban districts will sacrifice.  Urban districts will sacrifice.  Rural districts will sacrifice.  Some, both inside and outside this chamber, will urge you to retreat to the corner and protect your own piece of turf.  Our state is in crisis.  Our people are hurting.”

http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_021610/content/01125112.guest.html

Wed, 02/17/2010 - 06:19 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 02/17/2010 - 05:39 | Link to Comment asdf
asdf's picture

Hatzius forecasts 10,5% unemployment for Q2 2011. Nice.

 

http://economicsofcontempt.blogspot.com/2010/02/labor-market-crawling-out-of-deep-hole.html

Wed, 02/17/2010 - 11:01 | Link to Comment Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

88% of respondents couldn't locate America on a world map if they had to.

Wed, 02/17/2010 - 11:22 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 02/17/2010 - 12:23 | Link to Comment Anonymous
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