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ABC Consumer Comfort Index Drops Back To 2010 Low, 92% Say The Economy Is In "Bad Shape"
The April 19 Consumer Comfort Index number dropped back to -50, a 2010 low, just 4 points from its all-time low in 24 years of weekly polls, -54 in January 2009 and December 2008. 92% of those polled said the national economy’s in bad shape. The silver lining: "just 30 percent say it’s getting even worse, down from
recent highs of 36 percent in January and 43 percent last September,
much less a towering 82 percent as the economy fell into the abyss in
October 2008." 25% said the economy’s getting better, while a little more than 4 in
10 say it’s staying the same: truly abysmal numbers when once look away from the wine and ambrosia flowing at the altar of Steve Jobs.
More data from the report:
Just 43 percent rate their own finances positively, down from 47 percent last week and well below the long-term average, 56 percent. Fewer than half have rated their own finances positively for 15 weeks straight, and for 97 of the last 103 weeks, a remarkable run of negative financial assessments.
Among the index’s two other components, 76 percent call this a bad time to spend money, 13 points worse than average; and, as noted, 92 percent say the economy’s hurting. In another sign of the economy’s long-running troubles, the last time fewer than three-quarters of Americans rated the economy negatively was in January 2008.
We fully expect Michigan Consumer Confidence, which focuses more on those who don't pay their mortgage to buy iPads, and/or commute to work on Wall and Broad street, to come out and record the widest spread ever between the two "confidence" indices. The schism in US society has never been quite as deep.
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Isn't it AMAZING, every company on Wall Street reporting massive blowout profits out of no where!!! 15% or more of the people un-employed for years and companies raking it in better than when everyone was working. WOW!!!
How do they do it? Like Enron?
Much like the stock market, only 8% of the population is actually trading nowadays.
.......and the rest are raiding their IRAs, the last frontier of ATMs.
Don't forget fraudulent credit card applications...
Have been thinking that as well. . .
Ya. It's amazing isn't it. I'd wonder about but I have to go buy another 1000 intel cpu's for no reason and I should probably load up a copy of windows for each of those at the same time.
How's pfizer doing? They are only sending me 12 emails a day for viagra.
Why would this be surprising when you live in a country that is "by the Corporations, for the Corporations"? America is a full-blown Corporatocracy. This is 100% evident in the current state of affairs.
Another reason I hate large corporations, Fuck You large corporations!!
LOL, I was being sarcastic. I was using the AMAZING line from Maria B on CNBC when she interviewed John Thain just before the collapse, when he was claiming businesses were doing great. LOL She said "That's AMAZING, all the CEO's are saying the same thing." ROFLMAO
Haven't you read the Citigroup plutonomy memo? The Top 1 percent of the top 1 percent are all that matters. And in case you haven't heard, they're doing just fine.
Arthur Max, Associated Press Writer, On Tuesday April 20, 2010, 3:48 pm EDT
AMSTERDAM (AP) -- Even as Europe's dormant airports sputter back to life, prudent travelers and businessmen should ask: What if Iceland's volcano erupts again?
Because it might. Over and over again, for weeks, perhaps months, scientists say.
The last eruption from the Eyjafjallajoekull volcano in 1821 lasted off-and-on for 13 months -- but back then there were no jet engines to get clogged by ash.
What should the world brace for if ash clouds waft over Europe intermittently for six months or a year, repeatedly closing airports with just a few hours' warning?
A devastated tourist industry. Less out-of-season produce at supermarkets. Businesses forced to improvise. And higher prices on just about everything.
Europe's recovery from the economic recession likely would be set back to zero. Banks and governments, worried about runaway inflation, could tighten credit. Railways and roads would be overloaded with freight and people needing more reliable means of travel.
A BMW plant in Germany and a Nissan plant in Japan were forced to close temporarily this week because the ash prevented the arrival of parts shipments. Prolonged disruptions to supply chains could have a profound effect on manufacturing and global trade.
The psychological effects of the uncertainty could be numbing. As long as the volcano keeps rumbling, few people are likely to risk long delays camped out at airports or trapped in overpriced hotels.
Some people may feel more isolated, unable to escape on a cheap last-minute air ticket. They may think twice about visiting Grandma if it means six hours on a train rather than an hour in the sky. Booking a seat on the intercity express may be a lot harder.
Optimists will see benefits in a slower pace of life and the excuse to pass up yet another business conference. Vacations will be closer to home.
The climate might benefit from the absence of polluting aircraft, although the cancellation of 100,000 or so flights would amount to just a blip on the rising graph of the world's carbon emissions.
National railways are enjoying a boom, with extra trains running from Moscow and Madrid and all points in between. Eurostar added 33 trains since the weekend carrying 165,000 passengers from Britain to the continent, or 50,000 more than usual.
Economically, however, the picture would be generally grim.
Travel and tourism account for up to 5 percent of Europe's economic output. Even if the number of travelers drops by just one person in five, Europe would have to scrap its hoped-for return to growth this year, said economic analyst Vanessa Rossi of the London research institute Chatham House.
The spin-off effects of a sharp drop in travel could wipe off 1 to 2 percent of GDP. "That basically means we've got a continued recession," Rossi said.
"If it persists, it's quite chaotic. You find ways through it, but it's going to be more costly," she said. "This is absolutely bad news at the wrong time. But nobody chooses a volcano to erupt. So that's it."
The International Air Transport Association calculated that the airlines lost $200 million a day during the first five days of the volcanic crisis, and carriers are looking to their governments for support.
Tim Clark, president of the Dubai-based Emirates airlines, said the worldwide airline industry faced the threat of "implosion" if the crisis lasts too long. Without government help, "there won't be many carriers left. You simply can't afford to shut down something the size of Europe," he said, putting Emirates' own losses at $10 million.
Countries like Greece and Portugal, already facing debt crises, need tourism to help them limp back to growth -- plans that could go seriously awry under a longer eruption. The ripple effect would spread around our interconnected globe.
African agricultural exports, a big chunk of national economies, face potential collapse unless air freight could be replaced with refrigerated shipping containers.
Kenya, which exports 1,000 tons a day of fresh goods, threw away 10 million flowers -- mostly roses -- since the eruption began April 14. Asparagus, broccoli and green beans meant for European dinner tables was fed to Kenyan cattle because storage facilities were filled to capacity.
If flights remained disrupted, pineapples would soon pile up on farms in Ghana, since the airport has no refrigeration facilities.
European airports like Amsterdam's Schiphol are major transit points for travel between Africa and North America, and from Asia westward. If those airports couldn't receive flights, Europeans would stay home, more business would be done by teleconference, and the United States and the rest of the world would see a drop in travel revenue.
India's imports of rough diamonds from Antwerp and London have taken a hit, denying raw material for its huge diamond polishing industry. Exports of the prepared industrial diamonds and jewelry back to Europe and the U.S. would suffer if flights remain halted, said Chandrakant Sanghvi, regional chairman of India's Gem and Jewelry Export Promotion Council.
Other businesses say they are coping with interrupted air supplies, but they appear not to have given much thought to long-term shutdowns of their supply chains. In the first week of the emergency, the focus was on finding solutions to immediate problems rather than on structural changes.
"I would say it's day-to-day," Ford spokesman Todd Nissen said in Detroit. "There's so many plants that could potentially be affected. ... It's such a complex system."
With its 50 Europe-based planes grounded, international delivery service DHL has engaged in creative routing, said Jorge Wiedemann from its corporate headquarters in Bonn, Germany. Air freight from the U.S. and other points was diverted to Spain, then put on a fleet of trucks. The centralized distribution system based in Leipzig was modified to add regional hubs, he said.
"We are dealing with it on a daily basis." Wiedemann said "So far it's going well and there is no major backlog. How long we can deal with a situation like that is something I can't answer."
Most European food markets rely on local produce, or crops from neighboring countries, especially in the summer. Nonperishable canned or packaged imports usually arrive by container ships.
Those people with a taste for papaya and other exotic produce will have to go without, and menus in high-end restaurants and sushi bars may be red-inked with "unavailable." One Boeing 747 with 110 tons of fish destined for Europe sat on the tarmac in the Middle East, among some 2,000 tons of other disrupted shipments.
Simon Tilford, chief economist of the Center for European Reform, put such breakdowns in the category of "inconveniences" rather than "an existential threat," even under the worst-case scenario.
"There's no doubt it would be very disruptive if it went on for that long. But I don't believe, unless it was a complete blanket on civilian air travel, that the impact on the economy will be that grave." he said.
"Europe is not a particularly trade-dependent economy," said Tilford. Most traffic of goods is internal among the 27 members of the European Union.
"The longer it goes on, the more time we have to find alternative ways of doing things," he said.
Associated Press writers Adam Schreck in Dubai, Ashok Sharma in New Delhi and Tom Krisher in Detroit contributed to this report.
The interdependency of the world's economies is astounding.
Area of U. S. is 3.8 million square miles.
Area of Europe is 3.87 million square miles.
Disruption of this magnitude would cause massive imbalances in trade and our "just in time" inventory system would simply collapse. How many days does it take for the average grocery store to display empty shelves?
Haven't you heard? All job hunters now want ipods so that they can listen to music on the subway while on the way to their interviews. It also helps to pass the time when waiting for their own job interview behind the 150 or more other applicants waiting in front of them. Who cares? They don't have to pay for their homes anymore so why not take that extra cash and blow it on an ipod or an iphone....or even better....BOTH! Because in today's society, a plain old cell phone won't do. We need all those useless apps that tell us what crap tastes better on a cracker and what color tie goes best with a navy suit. Its a funny world we live in when the worst economic crisis to hit the world in 80 years is over with in a year!
Great stuff man. Can't wait to witness the end of this "gadget nation"!
don't forget ipad
"The worst economic crisis to hit the world in 80 years is over with in a year!"
There apparently was an app for that as well.
DUH
"The worst economic crisis to hit the world in 80 years is over with in a year!"
There apparently was an app for that as well.
DUH
Faster than the speed of crap through a goose.
You can say that again.
Aapl yhoo and everyone else blows out the quarter. DOES NOT COMPUTE!
the earnings are like those magic sea monkeys that were for sale at the back of comic books - just add water and watch them grow.......for the most part it is accounting slight of hand (aka legalized accounting fraud)....
Whoah whoah whoah, lets make sure we throw a few facts around here:
Apple, yes, good quarter, although sales of computers sucked again, take from that what you will and Apple's tax rate was way below what it was supposed to be
Yahoo a terrible quarter with revenue missing, again
Juniper a terrible quarter
Cree much weaker than people were expecting
Earnings are "good" because we are comparing with the worst set of conditions in the history of global commerce AND we are seeing peak impact of stimulus and transfer payments -- real question is, should earnings actually be better?
Hang on: "...although sales of computers sucked again..." Are you kidding? They sold almost 3 million units. How does that "suck"?
Please, just be honest in your posts. The fact is, we are seeing people spend money. All the latest reports show that. Whether it's pent up demand, seasonal, etc, who knows? But they are spending and Apple has been a big beneficiary of that spending.
we cannot say that people are spending money until the sales tax receipts validate the retail sales numbers. the government uses antiquated retail sales methodology that does not correct for "survivor bias" in the same-store sales.
right now, we are seeing a supply side boom, and we have yet to see a validated demand side boom. that doesn't mean it won't happen, but i will wait until sales tax collections come in for April (post-Easter effect) before concluding anything substantial is taking place with consumer spending.
Very valid point on tax receipts. But I do think we are seeing some validation in demand side, how substantial is the question.
hehe you said unit.
Shut up Beavis
harry dont be an idiot -- apple was supposed to have sold well in excess of 3m macs, they sold fewer than 3m macs. whether you think thats good or bad is irrelevant.
i also notice you conveniently ignore the handful of other high profile shitty quarters, because that would require stopping and thinking
No, I hold many shares of Apple and follow the stock. Mac sales were expected on the low end of 2.81 by BMO Capital to 3.18 by JP Morgan. The consensus of 18 analysts was 3M. So, again, how does that "suck"?
I didn't mention the other stocks you listed because I only took issue with your comment about 3M computers sold as "sucking". You failed to mention the other AH reports that were pretty good. But that's not the point.
lol, you own equities.
I sold 1 billion computers yesterday and immediately restocked them as returns. The recession is OVA!!! Or I'm a big fat stupid liar. Pick one.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJEwo_gwO9M
what makes you all think that the 300mm Americans are the only people who want consumer crap when there are another 5 bn odd people on the planet who are yet to own any of this stuff ?
I must say, I am impressed by the looting, it is simply out of this world.. its from the bankster world!
.....yeah, that good old mark-to-myth accounting is the best thing to come along since that subprime mortgage idea.
Man yes, you gotta give props to that kinda mad innovashun skillz.
Looting as it was meant to be. Hella yeah. Gangstaz is just children next to these giants.
20% of all personal income is coming from transfer payments and many people are now NOT paying their mortgage and instead spending that money on consumer items. It's all temporary IMO, but who knows how long that will be? Things will never recover the right way without organic job growth. How can it? There is no such thing as a jobless recovery. If/when Uncle Sam/Fed starts to drain liquidity then look out below. They won't raise rates right now because that's a sure fire way to watch the market tank 10-15% in less than a week.
This will go on as long as there is a way to transfer assets out of the hands of the prudent and into the hands of those who are profligate spenders. Then the hole house of cards comes down.
...and with capacity utilitz in the low 70% range it makes perfect sense that a retooling and business investment to drive the "cycle" - the meme has transitioned from green shoots to cycle. no mention of course of the debt cycle as that has been put on perma-ice. The one way crowd is back
Just buy the dips you infidel fuckers and everything will be fine. Hell, buy a house with 0% down, fixed rate mortgage and pay with your cash flow generated by collecting unemployment benefits. Yeah, sure visit your local Best Buy and you go git yourself that 190" 3-D plasma TV. Yeah you deserve it; you're an american, nothing but the best for you. Yeah sure go and get that 100 000$ pool for your new backyard. And dont worry about it, because Obama.... Yes he can.
Word up brotha! Spoken like a True Patriot!
God I can't stop crying, I'm just that proud of my fellow men.
you left out the $50k 15'x15' backyard golf course...
William Black speaking truth to power:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3-HTylLzXu8&playnext_from=TL&videos=ZP-t0s2D4IM&feature=sub
Listened to the whole hearing, William Black kicked ass.
Was just getting good, then CNBC cut him off....back to Maria and the Limey.
why would you watch CNBC? cspan online, i don't have to listen to commercials or douchey commentary.
I thought kings invented the rack and the breaking wheel to stop people intellectually and morally overpowering them.
whats the point of speaking to the deaf? They put on a good show, but hardly gave mr Black a chance to speak.
Notive how fat boy massages the handle of that gavel?
They say the eCONoME sux but if they can figure a way to spend they will.
Digital 401K account statements can not buy anything.
If only Steve Jobs could master his last name.
Consumer sentiment surveys show people are depressed. So, people must be shopping to make themselves feel better. Plus, people with money must be binging knowing full well that when the top tax rates goes to 100%, they won't have the money to spend. So everybody nests. They buy the TV and the new electronic toys for their house. They take the blowout vacation of a lifetime. They do it all. If they default on credit cards one day, who cares? If they blow their savings now, who cares.
Better to spend it before the government takes it all.
I don't know how else to explain the government taking over healthcare and trying to take over the banking system and the market going parabolic regardless?
But, but, but, but, there are new jobs being created everywhere. Hell, I just made about 40 keystrokes, that means 40 jobs were saved and created by the internet elves that retype everything I key in and post it to this website.
Right?
I guess the 8% is the number of people who work for big banks and the federal government?
That's good; less targets.
I am Chumbawamba.
Am I the only that wishes this effin thing would just pop already so we can get on with our lives?
Preach it, UGrev.
You're not, but don't expect we'll be able to live normally ever again.
.....yeah. At 40 fiatscos for a loaf of bread normal would be.....NOW. shudder.
I have no illusions about normalcy after the "pop". I just have better things to do with my life than to play this effin game for years on end. It's getting really friggin old, really friggin quick. The complexity of all of this is just absurd and far beyond necessary, IMO. It just seems like the complexity of the system has risen out of the need for people to have easy ways of filling their pockets via back-alley transactions.
In reference to the report, this is exactly why the market will continue higher. Until that number is at the highs for the year and sentiment and confidence are soaring, the market will continue higher.
Once we hear, "Best Consumer Confidence/Sentiment in Years", that's the time to sell.
This rally has not been confirmed by the consumer index and the gap between the stock market and consumer index is growing larger. That was an early warning signal in 2007 of an impending recession. ABC consumer index was a leading indicator for 2007-2009 recession because it followed housing's trajectory (topped in late 2006) and not the stock market.
The market will continue higher because it is in a mania not unlike 2000 or 2007. It will end the same as those manias did. This is a bull market, albeit one that is in its exponential end phase.
The market can easily reach higher than anyone expects in manic phases. 1300 on the S&P is not out of the question, but not before we get a selling phase in the next couple of weeks.
ABC consumer confidence is correlated with the housing bubble/situation, which led the stock market, and is leading it again to the downside right now. There is approx a 6 month lag, suggesting we'll see a stock market top in June/July of this year.
I agree with what you're say, the timetable is where we differ. We certainly will get some shallow pull backs of less than 5% but I don't think we'll see a major pull back until the all time highs are challenged. And yes, in a manic phase, that's very possible.
I don't think the retail investor has been completely sucked in yet. That's far from happening. When they finally say, "what the heck" and jump in, the sell off ensues. I'm not really seeing that yet and it could be much higher from here before we do.
Tyler just posted data showing that the retail investor is just now starting to enter the market. After two crashes in the last ten years, I think expecting a lengthy retail investor topping phase is unrealistic.
That being said, I fully expect a double top to occur, so the topping phase should take 2-3 months as it did in late 2002 bear market rally, and 2007 topping formation.
The top will depend on this next selloff. If we make it down to 1045, then this current level will likely be our top, but if we only manage to sell to 1150, then a higher top is probably in order, and that makes our final top timeframe in the Aug/Sept zone.
Bullish manias are characterized by steeper and shorter rallies.
The gap between the stock market and ABC consumer index is approaching the largest gap since mid-2008. This is indicating that long-term the stock market is in trouble. However, there is still space for the market to run significantly higher before we reach the largest gap size between the two, so the near-term is unpredictable based on this gap.
Sounds like a perfect contrarian indicator.
[just 30 percent say it’s getting even worse]
So. Less than a third of the US adult population thinks we are doomed to debt slavery for a century. Which indeed is worse than the current 50 years of debt slavery.
I will somehow manage to contain my elation at learning this.
Excuse me a moment while I go buy GOOG on the dip.
I think this stock market rally of the last 12-13 months will go down in history as the "Wile E Coyote rally." Our friend the Coyote has run out over the edge of the cliff and he continues to run. It is just a matter of time for him to look down. We all know what happens next...
maybe the revenue comes from overseas?
Cheer up America, the Hollywood Futures Index has just been approved!
Like dominos the shit keeps fallin'. FUCK.
The tulips are still selling well, but the people are getting increasingly hungry.
Not me. Just got 12 more fruit trees today.
Good man. If you have room, plant walnut trees too. 90 ft separation. Excellent health benes. Here is where I get all my trees:
http://www.millernurseries.com/
I concur with "W", looking for market top June/July, then look out below.
Wish I could hang on to FAZ that long but gave up a month ago, it is still heading south even with GS falling??? This market is more rigged than a sailing ship.
I wonder what % of Americans believe they will see a political/economic catastrophe on par w/ Argentina in their lifetime? Unfortunatly, when asked this question, I am certain 95%+ would say, "There was a political/economic catastrophe in Argentina?"
Retail sales are not booming. Just look at state sales tax barely up at all and leveled off again. Survivor bias and chains closing underperforming stores are distorting the sales figures big time.
Was that post 29 great depression stock market rally done with real low volume also ??
EURO continues to get a lot of support ...
But USD index weekly chart continues to give bullish warnings.
Euro chart:
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-0