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ABC Consumer Comfort Index Refuses To Budge, Near 2010 Lows
The ABC Consumer Comfort Index, which is by far the most pessimistic of all confidence trackers, and which conveniently comes out each Tuesday after market close, and just came in at -49 "has been iced in a 3-point range since early January, averaging -48 on its scale of +100 to -100 this year. That ties last year’s average, the worst on record in weekly polls since late 1985." Digging into the data reveals why the non-millionaires in America - those that do not have access to the government's record excess liquidity - are just plain unhappy about the economy: "The index’s individual components tell the story: Half or more Americans have rated their personal finances negatively in 91 of the last 97 weeks. Fewer than one-third have rated the buying climate positively steadily since November 2007, about when the recession began. And at least eight in 10 have rated the economy negatively since late March 2008, stuck in a 4-point range since last April." While we have little doubt UMich Confidence and Conference Board will show dramatic improvements, as these two are merely a lagging market indicator, the question of just whom these various indices tracks, is becoming increasingly relevant as even the divergence between assorted confidence levels reaches record levels.
More from the press release:
INDEX – The CCI has been below the -40 mark for a record 98 weeks. It’s now 36 points below the long-term average, -13, and has been below that average for a remarkable 125 consecutive weeks – well over two years. It languished longer below its long-term average just once before, in a more than four-year stretch from April 1990 to December 1994.
Among the individual components of the index, just 8 percent of Americans view the economy positively, the fifth straight week at this level, the 15th straight week of single-digit ratings and 29 points below its long-term average.
For nine weeks straight at least half of Americans have rated their own finances negatively, and a quarter or fewer have called it a good time to spend money.
GROUPS – The CCI is -11 among the highest-income Americans vs. -65 for those with the lowest incomes; however this 54-point spread is the narrowest it’s been since November. Among other groups, the index is -41 among people who’ve attended college vs. -71 among those who never finished high school, -43 among homeowners but -67 among renters, and -57 among Democrats vs. -47 among Republicans. The index is closer than usual among men and women, - 45 vs. -51. And it’s notably low, -52, among 18- to 34-year-olds.
Here’s a closer look at the three components of the ABC News CCI:
NATIONAL ECONOMY – Eight percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good for the fifth straight week. The highest was 80 percent Jan. 16, 2000; the worst, 4 percent Feb. 8, 2009.
PERSONAL FINANCES – Forty-four percent say their own finances are excellent or good; it was the same last week. The best was 70 percent, last reached in January 2000. The worst was 39 percent June 28 and 21, 2009.
BUYING CLIMATE – Twenty-five percent say it’s an excellent or good time to buy things; the highest it’s been since the first week of the year. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 18 percent, last reached Oct. 19, 2008.
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At what point does it become a depression?
...when it is called such in your kid's textbooks. In other words, never. The victors write the history, and in case you haven't noticed the liars and cheats have won.
Touche. I agree and I am aware, just wanted to ask the question.
Never say never.
When the Walmarts start to close.
When getting a BJ from the wife is considered social services.
Then - that would mean I have no safety net.
Then - that would mean I have no safety net.
Highlight comment of the day - THANKS!!
Welcome to the Jobless production-less consumption-less money-less LOGIC-less recovery.
Makes perfect sense if you work at CNBS or the Obama administration
There's no unemployment problem in D.C. Maybe we should create one.
This isn't the unemployment problem you're looking for. This unemployment problem is free to go.
Ironic. I have a job, but I'm terrified of losing it--not easy since I work for the gov't. I'm terrified nonetheless. I for one am FAR more pessimistic now than I was just two years ago. Of course, I hadn't found ZH then, so I didn't know any better.
OT but related, I perceive a major uptick in the campaign to discredit the resistance and disinform the public. Articles "exposing" the "racism" of political resistance seem to be popping up everywhere; normally moderate and homogenous blogs / boards are suddenly overrun with xenophobes and racist comments. Can "See? I told you so!" be far behind?
I've been noticing there seems to be a daily " wigout " shooting by a disgruntled employee somewhere in the US. Another good reason to increase licensing for open carry permits. It ain't safe going to work anymore.
In the New Normal, jumping from a tall building isn't favored anymore.
I didn't do it...
Preemptive condemnation of _____ , (put your cause here), began immediately after 911, maybe alittle before.
Apparently, ABC does not seek out the comfortably numb. Whereas, UMich and CB apparently use the GS internal phone book to source those surveyed.
More anecdotes: I got my hair cut last night. Same place I've gone to for about 6 years, in a town of about 11,000 people (rural). I mentioned that this was the first time I was the only person in the place, and that started a 20 minute conversation. In short, the recession is really starting to sink its teeth into this hair salon. Their business is down 35%. They recently did their own "deep dive" into their own data and learned the following: business had dropped the most amongst teenage women. The next largest drop was in professional women. And their largest gain was professional men. The thinking was that the teenage girls were getting cut-off from their 6-week routine of $100 hair and nails by Mom and Dad. They suspect the professional women were in much the same situation -- instead of a $200 hair/nails/skin session every 3 weeks, they were doing more $85 style/color appointments every 5 to 6 weeks. And as for men? Instead of $30 haircuts, they were doing more coloring jobs than ever before because the old boys wanted to look young at their next interview.
Again - anecdotal, but I find evidence like this everywhere here in Wisconsin now. The slowdown is for real, and nobody I interract with is optimistic or has evidence that "we've turned the corner" and things are going to return to the rah-rah days of 2006.
Very interesting. More interesting than government data.
Outstanding anecdotal research EM! Same here in SE TN. Everyone is keeping their heads down, and VERY thankful to have a job. Even the industrial temps business ($8/hr) is way down...no jobs, and/or people content to ride the UI longer.
My trial lawyer buddies are still drinking the 18 year Macallan, though.
longshorty here.
those are interesting anecdotes; I've experienced nearly precisely the opposite recently on a couple of occasions.
Sushi Cafe KAI in the south burbs of Dayton, Ohio was just jam packed like I've never seen a couple of weeks ago.
Same for my neighborhood restaurant here in Lexington, KY.
May be a function of the fact that both of those places tend to have more affluent residents, but the sushi place in Dayton is right across the street from a CarMax showroom that was built a couple of years ago and then never opened.
the worse the economy gets, the more money is given to the banksters by tax cheating timmah and depression expert ben
they are taking everything
everything
and collapsing the existing global system of finance and government
truly evil
Commercial mortgage walk-off picking up steam alongwith the stock market rally !!
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story.aspx?storyid=20100310...
The people at the top understood several decades ago that it was going to be this way, that is, winners and losers. Many of these people were the 'radicals' of the sixties and seventies who educated themselves in basic economic theory and knew that bifurcation was an inevitability.
These baby-boomer sell-outs chose selfishness after realizing that maintaining their ideals meant a measure of sacrifice. So, we have a situation where the weakest among us are in all the positions of leadership. They need to removed.
+1....but would you give them a piece of bread if they knocked on your door? How this works out will be a test for all of us, in different ways.
So on a different topic, why did gold drop about $20/ounce at around 11am EST today, anyone know? Yes, I realize that it is only about a 2% drop, but it seemed rather sudden...
Choose your poison.
a) gold's a bubble waiting to burst
b) people selling to raise cash to cover shorts
c) the rent is coming due and the landlord only takes that stupid paper
Last time unemployment figures were this bad CNBC called a street hot dog vendor in Chicago on a busy street. His expert testimony that business has not dropped was reassuring to America. Dennis whats his name and Larry Kudlow shared fist pumps, looked into the camera and said "see there you go America, business is good".
Ill make a Dennis & Kudlow dog out of something else and serve it up to them to see if they like eating bullshit as much as purveying it!
Oh yea Ill put my "special sauce" on it too.......
According to them we are also on the verge of the biggest boom in 75 years. We'll see how well that works out.
Watching Kudlow is dangerous at my house: I'm likely to shoot the tv. If that man had ever--just once--been in any real need for a job, he wouldn't be so damn optimistic.
For example, he keeps arguing that the reason unemployment is so high is because of unemployment benifit extenstions. *shakes head* I don't personally know anyone who wants to be on UI: It simply doesn't pay enough to keep up with all the bills.
Somehow the Great Recession seems to have passed him by.
He's back on the coke.
I think we are also seeing a demographic effect as the boomers are looking at the future and saying OMG!
Boomers were indulgent as all hell, spent from their depression/WWII generation parent's savings, continually ran up bubble asset prices through delusional greed, and propagated/bolstered all kinds of blatantly unsustainable entitlement schemes.
Since we already knew this couldn't be sustained even before the recent meltdown - I say we face reality and cut this off now before they continue to spend the rest of us, our children, and our children's children into the ground. They had opportunities and chances like no other generation on the face of this earth, let those who squandered their efforts on themselves deal with the reality they and their political/financial cronies created.
"But Er, Judah's firstborn, was wicked in the LORD's sight; so the LORD put him to death" ... Gensis 38:7 The "Greatest Generations" get ... The Boomers
Is this what you are suggesting?
The boomers are the first wave. But can you imagine the immense feeling of hopelessness the Gen Y'ers and millenials must be feeling? Go to college, rack up huge debts at double market rates, and then enter a job market that has no meaningful opportunity? And hope the gods help you if you only have a high school education. Your lot in life has been cast, and you'll forever work in a thankless job with your name sewn on a patch on your shirt (if you are so lucky).
Welcome to serfdom in our fascist oligarchy.
"lagging" doesn't begin to describe this data. Dead consumer equals a flat-line in confidence.
Flat line confidence equals dead consumers
The patterns on the chart are very telling: http://i44.tinypic.com/20i7wwk.jpg
It will be interesting to see if it rebounds as we get to the mid term elections or confidence continues downward.
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