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ABC Consumer Comfort Refuses To Play Ball With Propaganda Machine
Someone should send the UMich Confidence rolodex (which seemingly consists exclusively of Goldman executive committee members whose "in the moneyness" on Goldman calls translates into confidence of being able to buy a 14th Aston Martin DB - on a one to one basis with the market) over to the ABC Consumer Comfort people, as the two firms seem to never be able to spin the same "the consumer is violently recovering compliments of the $9 trillion in budget deficits" story. After hitting -45 recently, the index dropped yet again, hitting -48 today, a level the index has flatlined to ever since early June.
From the definition:
Declining
levels of consumer comfort usually accompany any fall in income and
wages and precede drops in consumer spending. A low or
falling ABC Consumer Comfort value is considered an early indicator of
an economic downturn. As a result, investors, retailers and traders
alike all watch the figure for insight into the general health of the
economy.
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MSM somehow forgets to mention the ABC's, mmmm....
Deflation is deflating our confidence
I just reread 'The Case Against the Fed' by Rothbard last night. This post reminds me of all the coordinated spin the bankers, intellects and politicians threw out to sway public opinion for the creation of the pyramid scheme Fed in the first place.
The commercial market is about to tank, and the ARM's will reset. 20% unemployment anyone?
www.RevokeTheFed.comMarch 2008
WHEREAS, Article I, Section 8 of the Constitution of the United States of America authorizes Congress "To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures";
WHEREAS, on December 13th, 1913 the US Congress enacted the Federal Reserve System;
WHEREAS, the Federal Reserve System is considered an independent agency within the federal government, with oversight of Congress and containing appointed public officials on its board of directors;
WHEREAS, the Federal Reserve System Controls the Federal Reserve Note, the official currency of the great nation of the United States of America;
WHEREAS, there may be controversies regarding the legality and constitutionality of the Federal Reserve System, it is recognized that the said system has operated continuously as the central banking system of the United States since the inception of the Federal Reserve Act of 1913;
WHEREAS, the Constitution of the United States of America granted Congress the authority to create the current Federal Reserve System, it also does grant Congress the authority to modify or revoke the Federal Reserve System;
WHEREAS, the actions of the Fedreral Reserve System represent the credit and currency of the United Stated of America to the citizens of this great nation and to the world;
WHEREAS, the Federal Reserve System, acting independently within the federal government allowed, supported, and even promoted parasitical and non-productive uses of the money and credit of the United States of America;
WHEREAS, the United States and likely the entire world's financial system is undergoing massive de-leveraging of the said parasitical and non-productive uses of the credit and money of the United States of America (as well as other nations' currencies);
WHEREAS, the US dollar, the "Federal Reserve Note" is declining in value due to these parasitical activites, as well as potentially other causes;
WHEREAS, it is recognized that the citizens of the United States and other nations did willingly participate at some level in the creation and propogation of said parasitical activities;
WHEREAS, it is also recognized that the United States of America, a sovereign nation, has the legal, moral, and God given authority to take actions to benefit its citizens and to protect its good name, credit and money in times of difficulty;
WHEREAS, it is recognized that the current time is such a time of great difficulty;
WHEREAS, it is recognized the parasitical financial institutions and their activities are at odds with citizens of the United States of America and the good credit and money thereof;
WHEREAS, the current indications are that the Federal Reserve System is acting to preserve the financial system currently flooded with the parasitical activities;
WHEREAS, the current indications are that the neither the Federal Reserve System, nor the Congress of the United States, nor the people of the United States have access to the books of the institutions being preserved by the Federal Reserve, and therefor the degree of inter-connectivity and risk associated with the institutions and other entities cannot be determined;
WHEREAS, the Federal Reserve System is accepting non-performing assets as collateral for credit with ultimate taxpayer responibility to entities not under its legislative mandate;
IT MUST BE CONCLUDED, that the Federal Reserve System is not acting to the benefit of the people of the United States of America, its credit, money, and good name;
WHEREAS, it is recognized that the political will and capability of the government of the United States of America may not be up to the task of prosecuting this proclamation ; It is also recognized that this may be the only hope for the continued survival of the United States of America as the great nation as it has historically existed.
NOW THEREFORE, it is PROCLAIMED by those supporting this Proclamation that the Congress of the United States of America FULLY NATIONALIZE the Federal Reserve System, and take full control of the credit and money of our great nation; The Congress must take whatever action necessary to seperate out, sequester, disown, or otherwise neutralize the effect of the parasitical financial activities which led to the current crisis; The Congress of the United States of America must reorganize, replace, or terminate the Federal Reserve System as appropriate; or otherwise devise a system for creation of the national currency.
IT IS FURTHER PROCLAIMED, that the Congress of the United States of America in cooperation with the Executive of the United States of America contact allied nations and any other nation willing to participate in the overhaul of the failing and parastical financial sytem currently in operation and create new treaties and alliances as necessary to create a sane and productive system of finance with the express goal of supporting a productive national, and by extension and through voluntary cooperation, world economy;
FURTHERMORE, it is PROCLAIMED that it should be the goal of such an international effort to maintain fair international trading practices allowing for protection in national interest of labor, resources, and productive capabilities;
WHEREAS, it is recognized that such a move on the part of the United States of America may result in the necessity of an isolationist policy IF the other developed nations do not follow our lead; If such occurs, so be it.
SO HELP US GOD!
Get all the references to "god" out of the document so it doesn't read like a right wingnut document.-59
i strongly appreciate the references to god...
only those who want a removal of our creator
would sound like a right wingnut....and one
quite deceived...
goddammit; stop with this religious crap already; i don't want to see ZH becoming the new site for AJ followers. Fuck off with you're creationism someplace else. You may not believe it, you may not like it, you may even cite me the Bible, but you came from the same primordial mud as did everything else that is some sort of a life form. " you are dust, and to dust you shall return " And, in a more relaxed tone i present to you, the eternal http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MeSSwKffj9o
+10 thanks
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bO6uh2o0GOQ
fuck right off, superstitious weirdo
It was a rightwingnut document. Duh. This country was founded by rightwingnuts. The left wing circus is a relatively new phenomena, and I have to believe that most of the Founders would not have found it amusing in the slightest.
Most of the "founding fathers" were Deists, not Christians. They believed in a vague higher power, but it was the Age of Enlightenment, and they were too rational to buy the Judeo-Christian bunk. Jefferson considered his greatest accomplishment the creation of a non-sectarian college. (Up until then, they all had religious affiliation.) And by definition, they were radical left wingers, because they overthrew the conservative right-wing monachary. Books, ever heard of them?
more of the tired bullwinkle moose intellect
at work on the issue of the religious sentiments
of the founding fathers....
looking at the period from plymouth rock to
the consitutional convention you will find a rich
tapestry of religious conceptions but the
dominant beliefs are characterized by strong
christian content or traceable to it. deism
was an artifact of a different class intellectual -
not those of the aforementioned founders.
the public utterances of these men, including
jefferson, were clearly in the judeo-christian
tradition with many famous men such as alexander
hamilton adhering to faith in jesus christ....the
continental congress even voted 300,000 dollars
at one point to distribute bibles in the 13
colonies - hardly a deist interest....
your admission that all universities until
jefferson's had religious affiliation is a complete
and utter demolition of your thesis....
that religion,
as the documents attest,
was clearly judeo-christian in flavor - not deist....
next time give rocky a consultation....even as
late as de tocqueville there was still an
indellible religious preference aligned with
christianity....
Jesus Louise, written like a true religious fanatic: many declamatory statements, short on substance, flowery/corny language ("a rich tapestry") and mostly mean-spirited ad hominem attacks. The evidence is against you. Their religion was largely a social networking affair. And the deists FAR outweighed the Christians. Most of the God crap got inserted by the US government in the 1950's, when the country was Commie-Atheist crazy. But I'm not doing anymore of your homework for you. Turn off the cartoon shows, open your mind, and don't just read Christian tracts. And remember: A man without God is like a fish without a bicycle.
"they were too rational to buy the Judeo-Christian bunk. Books, ever heard of them?"
Classy! You can disagree with someone without being such a condescending snob, Marshall.
I disagree with your statements above, but don't think this is a religious forum.
Intended as annoyed humor with the out of place religious talk, not condescension. Much of the economic talk on the site is quite brilliant and humbles me. But the political/religious stuff is often unsupported by any facts. Complete hot air disturbs me, and I can't resist shoveling in a few facts.
Left-winger: ..."advocate the adoption of sometimes extreme measures in order to achieve the equality, freedom, and well-being of the citizens of a state." (American Heritage Dictionary) Sounds like the "founding fathers" to me. The dictionary, ever heard... oops.
Books, yea I've heard of them but evidently you have not since you believe that they were all deists. That is not true at all, how about you do a little reading about the founders:
"The general principles on which the fathers achieved independence were. . . . the general principles of Christianity." JOHN ADAMS.
"No nation has ever existed or been governed without religion. Nor can be. The Christian religion is the best religion that has been given to man and I, as Chief Magistrate of this nation, am bound to give it the sanction of my example." Thomas Jefferson.
Jefferson always signed documents, when President, with "In the year of our Lord Christ."
How about you read some books that are fact not fiction!
the declaration of independence and the
constitution are of such sophistication
and intelligence as to preclude them being
the work of "rightwingnuts."
their political acumen far exceeds the ignorant
grunts of 'it was a rightwingbut document. duh."
maybe that analysis works during kindergarten
recess but elsewhere it is juvenile.
so if the country was founded by "rightwingnuts"
i hardly see the purpose of invoking their
hypothetical displeasure concerning the
resolution posted above. sounds like the
reasoning of a pixilated blond....
WWJF? (who would jeezus flag?)
The three g's then God,Gold,Guns oh sorry four Good luck!
correction: gold, guns and guts
We can go to the library..
I think everyone on this blog can read.
So just post a link...we don't need the whole freaking text!
Your post makes you look like a "Unibomber".
Even though your probably too smart for some of us:)
the spin job is what newsfakers are paid to do....
all major and minor press as former cia director
william colby stated are controlled by the cia
pre-clinton unemployment is already 21%....
An excellent read (as is Rothbard's "What Has the Government Done to Our Money?!)!!!!! Thanks for reminding me I'm due for a reread as well. Cheers!
Do you really believe the Fed will allow CRE to tank? QE 2.0 is on the way, baby.
The challenge is merely to find out what asset sucks less worse than dollars.
Today in the WaPO, Timmy talks about the bankster reformation. His nose was growing as he wrote this " whitepaper ". White is toilet paper's favorite color for a reason.
Item # 3 is particularly amusing. Banksters must :
" Maintain high levels of quality capital ".
I love this guy !!
He's like the guy working the honey wagon. As he pumps more shit out of the cesspool, he pleads with the homeowner to quit flushing so he doesn't have to keep coming out so much.
There was a "honeydipper" in Phoenix in the late 70s whose truck was lettered with "Heavenly Scent" "Your shit is my bread and butter". Thanks for reminding me, lol.
Does anyone know what the sampling error for the ABC and UMich confidence numbers is?
I know that the sampling error for the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is about 1.5%. The CCI is based on about 5,000 mailed questionnaires with about 70% response rate. So I would think that the order of magnitude of the error of the other two confidence measures is similar...
OK, here's what I found on University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: Sampling error is about 1.3%. Also, remember that this is a diffusion index. Hence it contains information about direction and not so much about magnitude.
this is a most valid question...something about
which i have been harping whenever someone
gets excited about month over month changes....
on the other hand i would be suspicious about
the use of mailed in responses....i suspect that
such a process is self selecting which favors
the upside...just ask alf landon...
i am surprised that the se is 1.5% even though
the sample is somewhat large....the response
rate is extraordinarily high....do you have
any references for these numbers?
Yes, there's certainly a selection bias but that would normally be similar over time, hence looking at changes should minimize selection bias.
It always cracks me up when some data release tops or misses expectation but the sampling error of that data is larger than the difference between actual and expected. I just don't understand why data is published without stating the sampling error at the same time. Never mind seasonal adjustments...
VK,
Can you link to the methodology of CCI? I work in research and a 70% RR is unheard of without some real incentives...
I've got the data on sampling error and response rate for the CCI from: "Guide to economic indicators"; Norman Frumkin, M.E. Sharpe; 4 edition (December 31, 2005).
I know it's a bit outdated, would be interesting to see a time series of actual response rates. Who knows, it may have dropped...
Don't worry, China will get us out of this. Their economy is booming!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEDFgJACMcQ
Nice video, thanks for posting it.
yea..thanks for posting...enjoyed the video... brought back my memories of china, my company outsourced heavily there..
Thanks for the link. Great perspective. The US and China will meet in the middle of the political and economic spectrum from opposite directions, to the continuing detriment of all.
I wish we had outsourced our unemployment, if that were true I would be working today.
We may have outsourced out manufacturing base, but we certainly didn't outsource our unemployment, otherwise we wouldn't be approaching 20% unemployment in this country.
Best part I liked was how he made it sound like it was all our fault. Damn yankee imperial consumers, go deeper in debt so our economy won't implode, you capitalist pigs!
My advice to our Commie friends across the great salty divide, re-embrace your communist roots, the majority of your citizens were unemployed before the Chi-Com capitalist revolution some twenty years ago, so it shouldn't be too much of a stretch to revert back to the mean.
depending on what you consider the most accurate unemployment numbers your 20% might be low for where we are now..at least according to John Williams.
All I can say is welcome to our world. Our corrupt politicians along with Wall Street have been subjecting us to this very travesty for the past 40 years.
I don't need to travel to China to view shut down factories and talk with unemployed people. Between NAFTA and China's most favored trade status, along with all the other free trade treaties, the Multi-National corporations have raced to transfer jobs from the US to Mexico, China and any place they can find a slave willing to work for pennies an hour.
Although viewing thousands of shut down factories in China reminded me of my journeys through Detroit and Ohio, and the rust belt in general over the last ten years.
While upstate New Yorkers were complaining about unemployment, Hillary was on a listening tour, but failed to bring back home jobs for her constituents. The Senate seat being just a pit stop on the way to the Presidency.
Anyone with a 2nd grade education should have seen this whole scenario coming a mile away. How do you expect Americans to continue spending while losing good paying jobs to outsourcing along with the insourcing of foreign hi-tech workers. I realize they found a way to continue the illusion, but as we can see millions of people are paying the price for the hubris of an entitled few.
I only hope the Chinese don't figure out how to convert all their ocean going vessels into troop transport vessels and use us as their war to cover the tracks of their corrupt politicians like we've done in Iraq and Afghanstan.
Hopefully Obotomy hasn't destroyed what's left our nuclear arsenal or we'll be making change in China.
And, I guess the Chinese authorities will now have to re-introduce drugs to the populace with the hopes they will turn into zombies before they attempt to overthrow the government.
Government spending CAN replace the consumer. Hitler did it.
*Notice the market didn't selloff on the back of this news*
The market is acting rationally in my view.
TG: Benny, ABC sentiment, WTF?
Benny: Must be a seasonal adjustment, but I'll take it into the consideration for the next IR meeting.
Mr.O : forget bout it; we brought the change, that's all that matters or ELSE.
T,G: I ve got around 100 bl left, how much do they need?
Benny: OMG, mr. O meant political change. However don't stop the press yet, 100 bl till November may or may not be enough.
Has anyone got a forecast for Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) for September, due on the 11th?
My guess is 64.5. Previous reading was 65.7.
Consensus is 67.0, range is 65.0-69.0
Attention everyone the dollar just collapsed....hmm (squeeze coming?)
http://www.forbes.com/2009/09/08/dollar-euro-imf-markets-currencies-united-nations.html
of course I don't believe this for a second
This clips seems to fit.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDAmPIq29ro
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KV4q41MWVdg
Would like to see a version of that while the zombies are scarfin' everyone's brains!
Here's a treat
Gary Shilling from Bloomberg Radio earlier today:
http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/Markets/Analyst_Calls/vxAOyUtiUTLs.mp3
(Warning - Kathleen Hayes is part of this interview)
I think when Kathleen Hays leaves work she actually teleports to another planet because she doesn't know what the hell is going on on this one.
Shilling's been recommending treasuries since the dawn of time. CXO Advisory gives him low marks on predictive accuracy. I enjoy Shilling, but he has a limited perspective.
Oh, ouch. Aussie Retail Sales come in at MINUS 1% vs. forecasts of +0.5 or 0.6%... That's goodnight for the risk trades (for about 90 seconds, until investors realize what kind of SPY ramp up this kind of number produces in the developed world).
Did you see the AUS/USD spot. Creamed!
Yes - but business and consumer confidence has surged to a two-year high together with property prices. Sentiment is now euphoric. At the next leg down, Australia could be the shorting opportunity of a lifetime.
Australia has a giant-ass property bubble.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Demographia-Dogma-$pd20090129-NQTPP?OpenDocument&src=srch
They will crash down once the defaults set in.
Also, note that Rudd legislated $10k to anyone buying a house in an effort to keep prices up.
INSANE.
Fight Club on tonight at 10:00 est on G4.
Aussie Home Loans less good than expected too; down 2%. Shooting for the green trifecta tonight to push the ASX to new highs... Aw, too bad - consumer confidence rises over 5%, in conjunction with the great sales and home loan numbers. Market pulling back. Makes sense, yes?!
TOKYO -- An index of consumer sentiment in Australia climbed by 5.2% in September from a month earlier to its highest level since July 2007, according to data Wednesday compiled by Westpac Banking Corp. and the Melbourne Institute. The index rose to 119.3 in September from 113.4 in August. The index has climbed by 34.4% over the last four months, Westpac's chief economist Bill Evans said in a statement.
for ProjectM and other Gold types out there this is an interesting post from Jesse's Cafe
Barrick Capitulatesso did the bankrupt FDIC find the money to shut down Corus? September 6th was the deadline, no?
Households currently own $8.8 trillion of equities, $7.7 trillion of deposits and cash, and $273 billion of treasury notes and bonds, according to a recent Zero Hedge article “Putting it all Together: Managing Money as You Peer into the Abyss.”
That means that households hold $7.973 trillion in “safe havens” such as treasury bills, certificates of deposit and money-market funds where yields are way below price inflation. “Safe haven” is not an accurate term for these holdings, of course; they’re loser positions when factoring in accurate inflation, not government-identified inflation that uses substitution pricing in its inflation measure.
How, then, can consumers be optimistic, particularly consumers on fixed incomes? Bankrate’s weekly survey of large banks and thrifts taken Sept. 2 found that the average return on a 12-month CD has fallen below 1% for the first-time ever--to 0.98% from 1.01% — the lowest average since the survey began tracking 12-month CD rates in October 1983.
That means the yearly return on a $100,000 CD before taxes is $980, taxable as income, not as capital gains.
Compare that with the actual price inflation on non-discretionary items—on health care, insurance [health, dental, eye, house, car, liability, Medicare, prescription], on gasoline, heating/air conditioning/water/garbage disposal, taxes and fees [income, property, sales, personal property, business], U.S. stamps and newspapers, college tuition, quality paint, and Scotch whisky (non-discretionary in these times, harrumph)… And, in 2009, the tax cap on Social Security increased 4.7% or $4,800, so assuming you earn that much you’re on the hook for Social Security taxes on your first $106,800.
As for food, "in 2009 the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all food is projected to increase 2.5 to 3.5 percent, as lower commodity and energy costs combine with weaker domestic and global economies to pull inflation down from 2008 levels," according to USDA.
“Food-at-home prices are forecast to increase 2.0 to 3.0 percent, while food-away-from-home prices are forecast to increase 3.5 to 4.5 percent in 2009. The all-food CPI increased 5.5 percent between 2007 and 2008, the highest annual increase since 1990. Food-at-home prices, led by fats and oil prices (up 13.8 percent) and cereal and bakery product prices (up 10.2 percent), increased 6.4 percent, while food-away-from-home prices rose 4.4 percent in 2008.”
And the disparity continues… Only a loon would be “more confident” going into 2010.
http://www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/cpifoodandexpenditures/consumerpriceindex.htm
VK:
Bloomberg says consensus for U Mich confidence is 67.5 vs 65.7 last time.
The UMich measure is still extremely low by historical standards--in addition to its design weakness, it's being massively misrepresented by the MSM.
The Matrix is a system, Neo. That system is our enemy. But when you're inside, you look around, what do you see? Businessmen, teachers, lawyers, carpenters. The very minds of the people we are trying to save. But until we do, these people are still a part of that system and that makes them our enemy. You have to understand, most of these people are not ready to be unplugged. And many of them are so inured, so hopelessly dependent on the system, that they will fight to protect it.
I'd like to share a revelation that I've had during my time here. It came to me when I tried to classify your species and I realized that you're not actually mammals. Every mammal on this planet instinctively develops a natural equilibrium with the surrounding environment but you humans do not. You move to an area and you multiply and multiply until every natural resource is consumed and the only way you can survive is to spread to another area. There is another organism on this planet that follows the same pattern. Do you know what it is? A virus. Human beings are a disease, a cancer of this planet. You're a plague and we are the cure.
Morpheus: The Matrix is everywhere. It is all around us. Even now, in this very room. You can see it when you look out your window or when you turn on your television. You can feel it when you go to work... when you go to church... when you pay your taxes. It is the world that has been pulled over your eyes to blind you from the truth.
Neo: What truth?
Morpheus: That you are a slave, Neo. Like everyone else you were born into bondage. Into a prison that you cannot taste or see or touch. A prison for your mind.
This is your last chance. After this, there is no turning back. You take the blue pill - the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill - you stay in Wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit-hole goes.
Folks, hate to say it but the average American consumer is "blissfully ignorant".... always have been. So a positive sentiment reading is reflective of that underlying fact. I suppose many of the recently unemployed might have given a positive read on the sentiment as they are "hopeful" of replacing the job they lost with a new job that will allow new credit cards and a continuation of the American Dream ... newly defined as "having enough access to credit cards to continue buying stuff they "need" from China... flat screens, cell phones, a govt subsidized tract home from Pulte inventory, and a Cash for Clunkers financed new car ( which wasnt GM or Chrysler product). BTW, I heard a radio ad last night from a local car dealer suggesting they have a huge amount of clunkers traded in that they are making amazing deals on.... werent all those Clunkers supposed to be scrapped for the benefit of Global Warming? America has successfully exported this selfish lifestyle model to most parts of the world, and those that have refused it we declare war upon to convert. Democracy is the best model, but we have perverted it with greed and we are in the first inning of reaping what we have sown....
global warming is a crock....the evidence used
to justify that political hysteria - rising
global temperatures - whatever the fuck that
really means - is showing a pronounced reversal
of trend for reasons explainable without resort
to nonsense of "greenhouse gases."
Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. stocks rally is “maturing” and the risk of a 20 percent retreat in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased after sellers became more aggressive than buyers, Bank of America said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037&sid=ak.1o0dVxWHo
How's come ZH is not more vocal about Health Care reform?
ZeroArticles about forced premiums.
well i'm a consumer and i'm uncomfortable...so this jives
It may be my swine flu speaking or me just throwing in the towel. The fact is that confidence does not really matter anymore.
The only and exclusive object of interest to investors is whether the world as inflation or deflation. Forget all fundamentals. If the US can print indefinitely then just buy all risky assets. The Fed has shown it has the will to do so. Now, the question is whether they can continue to monetize debt for an investable period of time (3-5 years or more).
I am starting to think they may be able to. So far, official debt has not increased beyond what is expected for a mild crisis, markets have stabalized, and investors have shown all to willing to forget underlying fundamentals.
yippee..we are not spending our ... out...and its great news for the stock market!!!!!!!!!
Has anyone, anywhere, ever met anybody , who has at anytime , been surveyed by either of the propaganda polls ? I thought not
My thoughts, exactly. Why anyone’s still around who believes Government “Truth” is beyond me.
...well I built me a raft and she's ready for float.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7JZfJ8q81A
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