ABC Consumer Confidence Drops, Poll Gets Downright Cynical: "Recession Ends, Nobody Notices"

Tyler Durden's picture

Some funny quotes in the latest weekly ABC Consumer Comfort Index poll, which incidentally dropped from -43 to -46, just inches away from the 2010 lows, but more importantly, just inches away from the lows seen throughout the entire depression, as consumer sentiment has gone nowhere fast in the past two years: "Recession Ends, Nobody Notices." Indeed, as the chart below shows, ABC's weekly poll of about 1,000 random people shows nothing at all good for the economy, which, oh yes, is now out of the recession, but not the depression. And for technicians out there, the reading of 46 dropped just below the 52 week average of -45.98. Joking aside, the report found that: "This week 89 percent of Americans rate the economy
negatively, 75 percent say it’s a bad time to spend money and 55 percent
rate their own finances negatively."
Surely these are the Green shoots that forced Larry Summers to realize that destroying the Harvard endowment is a far less dangerous job than continuing to bring ruin and pestilence to all of America.

Full weekly report:

If the recession’s over, maybe no one told the economy.

That’s one conclusion from the latest ABC News Consumer Comfort
Index. In last week’s results, optimism for the economy’s future reached
its lowest since March 2009. This week, the CCI’s index of current
conditions stands at a dismal -46 on its scale of +100 to -100.

That’s even though the National Bureau of Economic Research declared
last week that the recession ended in June 2009. Clearly, the public’s
economic yardstick is a different one.

M0919 graphic1

Indeed consumer views of current conditions don’t necessarily
anticipate the climb out of a trough. While the 1990-91 recession
officially ended in March 1991, the CCI didn’t regain its pre-recession
level until June 1994 – far too late for the political fortunes of the
first President Bush, voted out in 1992 amid continued economic
discontent. The CCI in mid-September 1992 was -42, much like it is now.

The challenge, as we showed last week,
is employment; the CCI correlates with it strongly, and it’s still
weak. The chart below shows that the CCI also correlates with yearly
change in the GDP, a basis for dating recessions. For growth to become
robust, it suggests, consumer views have a ways to go.

M0919 graphic2 

The CCI, produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates,
is based on views of the national economy, personal finances and the
buying climate. This week 89 percent of Americans rate the economy
negatively, 75 percent say it’s a bad time to spend money and 55 percent
rate their own finances negatively
. The CCI’s -46 compares to a record
low -54, a record-high +38 in early 2000 and a long-term average of -13.
Recession or not, we’re still in the weeds.

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NOTW777's picture

obama calling summers "brillant"; things are going so well someone quits the WH every few weeks.

cougar_w's picture

They prove they are brilliant ... by quiting.

Just like all those industry insiders are proving they are brilliant by selling their own company stock.

The dumb money stays put. Enter the steamroller.

BobWatNorCal's picture

There seems to be quite a lot of those stories recently:
"Everything is great! The economy is great! ObamaCare is great! It's just that the People are too stupid."

Battleaxe's picture

TPTB have ABC under their control, don't they? It should be A LOT easier to boost the numbers coming out of this piddly confidence poll than pumping the stock market. Somebody needs to be FIRED!

traderjoe's picture

They just make sure the report is released after-hours, when the computers are turned off. And make sure none of the investment houses track it. Nothing to see here, moving on...

NOTW777's picture

this is the outcome when the so-call MSM lie everyday to support their guy

Cactus Rocky's picture

The recession is over.  Hang the banner: Mission Accomplished

 

Joeman34's picture

I sincerely hope you're not relying on the "Bush's Fault" defense like the rest of the Libtards - however, it's unclear from your post...

RockyRacoon's picture

On the other hand, your position is quite clear.  It's a liberal plot, eh?

cougar_w's picture

 poll of about 1,000 random people

For some strange reason I read that as "people who are random".

My 15 yo daughter is random girl. You wouldn't want to ask for her opinion on anything.

Wait. That was a random thought. I guess I'm random too. Maybe it's inheritable.

Is inheritable a word? It seems like it ought to be. Um -- what's the topic again?

lizzy36's picture

Clearly, the announcement of QE2 being a matter of "when not it",  one day after learning the recession ended 14 months ago, is a massive victory for consumer confidence. 

economessed's picture

The myth of Consumer Confidence:  That it exists.

cossack55's picture

Maybe Tyler should run a Consumer Cynicism Poll.  Talk about plus columns.

NOTW777's picture

take a deep breath, look around, this is what a recovery feels like in an affirmative action admin with a drug dealer fed head.  its the harvard touch

rogersails's picture

The poll respondents should just suck it up, and  the polsters should use a random selection of billionaires instead.

RockyRacoon's picture

Well said, Charlie!  Whassamatta wid dese crybabies?

Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

yep, suck it up bitchez!!!!! Give me my bailout.

RobotTrader's picture

Most of the sheep didn't even notice the:

1)  Biggest wipeout of most financial firms in 50 years

2)  Biggest stock market crash since the 1930's

3)  Outright implosion of the housing market

They ignored it all and continued to buy iPods, iPhones, and K-Cup coffee machines.

And book more vacations via Priceline.

And, as usual, the Alpha Dog PigMen running the top mutual funds scored 10 and 15 baggers throughout the chaos.

 

traderjoe's picture

Or got buried owning stocks in a buy and hold mentality. Throw up some charts on GM, C, BAC, GE, INTC, CSCO, etc. Widows and orphans got crushed. 

Anyone can cherry-pick some nice charts. At least throw in some pretty-girl pictures. Or a long-term chart on gold.  

RockyRacoon's picture

He's just Johnny Bravo with charts.

homersimpson's picture

Oh heck no. Johnny Bravo is in a different class... not even close.

Blano's picture

I agree with you buy and hold statement, nevertheless, there are indeed many, many more charts like Robo's out there right now.  If I knew how to post a few, I would (sorry).

Just sayin'.

FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

But look at the pitiful volume on those ramp jobs. Tells you all you need to know about the internals. They look good to fail.

Dr. Sandi's picture

Most of the sheep didn't even notice the:

1)  Biggest wipeout of most financial firms in 50 years

2)  Biggest stock market crash since the 1930's

3)  Outright implosion of the housing market

They ignored it all and continued to buy iPods, iPhones, and K-Cup coffee machines.

And book more vacations via Priceline.

And, as usual, the Alpha Dog PigMen running the top mutual funds scored 10 and 15 baggers throughout the chaos.

Dammit, Bot. You have a way of making it sound like a BAD thing!

Id fight Gandhi's picture

People want jobs, most people don't even know what a stock is, but they know what a paycheck is.

ColonelCooper's picture

Too bad that 90% of the people who want jobs have no effing clue what kind of lifestyle haircut they'd have to take in order to redevelop an American production economy.  They're better off signing up for extended unemployment and turning on "Dancing with the Stars".  Til they aren't.  Which is really damn soon.

StychoKiller's picture

You'll know reality has truly set in when everyone has to watch television at Best Buy because they can't pay their cable bill!

Xedus129's picture

LT said the Recession is over.. so its over right?

Also, I like how its been upgraded to the "Great Recession" lol.  But what I want to know is whats above a Great Depression?  

Racer's picture

GreatER Depression and by no other name will it be known in history, it should be said how it IS for the people not the banksters....

HarryWanger's picture

Looks like /ES reversed off the lows on that "stellar" news. Must have been BTE.

Mercury's picture

Like that Vietnam era bumper sticker:

What if they threw a recovery and nobody came?

Dr. Sandi's picture

Like that Vietnam era bumper sticker:

What if they threw a recovery and nobody came?

I liked the response sticker even better:

What if they threw and orgy and nobody came?

caconhma's picture

The latest US recession is indeed over. However, the USA is in a depression for a quite awhile.

Presently, the US economy is on drugs (supported by runaway monopoly money printing/spending). This shit is about over.

As for Obama, he is a POS, a liar, and a fraud. He is not a legitimate president. He is an impostor.

Bananamerican's picture

"the great Suckcession"

it SUCKS not being able to pull the lever for anyone for Prez in the last 10 years...

one of my major clues that we live in an oligarchy...in a nation of 300 million+ souls we get these soulless, mindless figureheads

sgt_doom's picture

Say, I don't mean to appear hyper-suspicious or anything, but isn't the head of the NBER -- who officially proclaimed an end to the recession, Jacob Frankel?

And isn't he an Israeli?  Not that I'm too prejudiced or anything, but if it says National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), I kinda expected the chief to be....oh, I don't know....maybe an American!!!!!!!!!!!!

Something Wicked This Way Comes's picture

We don't need any of that citizenship, birth certificate, nonsense Doom.

Just stfu and watch Dancing with the Stars. We'll let you know when mf'er goes supernova and implodes. You'll know it because we call those events "unexpected."

docj's picture

Recession Ends, Nobody Notices.

Heh - allegedly the recession "ended" over a year ago.  Indeed, nobody noticed then and nobody is buying it now.

ColonelCooper's picture

Kind of funny how the "independent, non governmental" commission can find the beginning of positive growth while completely ignoring the "non-partisan" CBO's analysis finding that the only reason we showed a net positive growth was stimulus.

We must just need a little more stimulus.  Isn't that where Roosevelt went wrong?

 

sbmeder's picture
Not even the guys buying business jets noticed the recession ended. Textron Adjusts Business Jet Outlook

Tue, 21 Sep '10

Cessna Says It will Cut 700 Jobs

  ANN Realtime Update 09.21.2010 1530

 

working class dog's picture

I look at all the negativity here and I am not saying you are wrong, I believe Professor Black should return to kick some chronie ass!

But look at the markets, they continue to climb in the face of all this negative sentiment, which tells me there is still more money on the sidelines ready to come in. Also this is the time to buy because the dumb money , the mutual funds always come in at the top. And they are leaving the building with Elvis.

StychoKiller's picture

Stock Market(s) != Economy         (end of story.)

Jim B's picture

"Recession Ends, Nobody Notices."

    +1, Classic headline, Love it

 

Diogenes's picture

They give trillions of taxpayer money to the big banks yet the taxpayers are still poor.

StychoKiller's picture

Yeah, funny how that works (or didn't, in this case!)

Prof Quagmire's picture

 

  When even ABC acknowledges that government statements are nothing but bullshit propaganda, you know we're way down the road.  What would happen if the sheep started to wake up and realize that the man and the dogs are working together?

rosiescenario's picture

...obviously their random sampling was not within the Beltway or NYC's city limits...