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ABC Consumer Confidence Index Turns Lower Again
ABC Weekly Consumer Confidence has flatlined, and not only is it down to -49 from last month's reading of -47, it is at exactly the same place it was two months ago.
A refresher of what the ABC index measures:
Declining levels of consumer comfort usually accompany any fall in
income and wages and precede drops in consumer spending. A low or
falling ABC Consumer Comfort value is considered an early indicator of
an economic downturn. As a result, investors, retailers and traders
alike all watch the figure for insight into the general health of the
economy.
Note: The index incorporates the
most recent week's data with the results of the past three weeks,
yielding a rolling four week average. Results are calculated as the
difference in percent of positive and negative numbers.
And the market is enjoying this revenueless, earningless, growthless, and now consumerless recovery day after day, sending the market progressively higher.
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Same low level as two months ago? So we've got another market surge ahead?
11,000 dow, 1150 S&P here we come - yay
I go to Starbuck's every day.
Place is still busy, but not near as busy as it was 6 - 9 months ago.
A lot of the hot chicks I used to see show up are no longer coming in. No doubt, probably sales girls who have been laid off.
Nevertheless, the stock keeps going up:
It's because unemployed people need coffee more than ever. What else have they got?
Why were unemployed people born?
Perchance, Do you work for GS ?
Looks like the market to me, just with more % juice.
SBUX sells drugs, addicts need fixes.
Now, why does the Transportation Index have the same formation, that's a question.
Also, restaurants closing at a rapid pace, makes me nervous to eat at one.
Some highlights from the earnings call that had them gapping higher:
"Our research tells us we are making real progress on every measure of customer satisfaction"
"We were just named the number one brand in a new social media engagement report developed by [Alchimeda Group] and [Wet Paint]."
"Comparable store sales came in at a negative 5%."
So there you have it...brush off the crap comps, add up the facebook friends and you can justify a price of 22x 2010 earnings.
Check out New York Magazines - "Hot Waitress Economic Index" to understand where all the hot girls in nyc have gone and what it means for the economy.
http://nymag.com/news/intelligencer/58195/
Though business seems to have slowed down a bit there are still plenty of hot chicks at Starbucks over here - blessed be it. Ah, the good old days when Starbucks meant meeting hot sales chicks and banging them 'coupla days later. Alas it's not that much fun with a long-term gf anymore. Make that a Gentlemen's Latte!
they've completely destroyed trust in the equity markets. nobody trusts something this volatile w/their money anymore. once the computers stop passing shares amongst themselves it may get ugly. lots of people are using this rally as an exit point for long term money.
Yes, we will be divorced from the realities of the markets! Finally, we will once again remember our place in the world, and strive to remember it in action and deeds (read: hello Caste system 4.0).
Also, just a question - if China leads our recovery - who will make our stuff? Just wondering, cause it seems that their factories will be filling up with "Euro-like" or "American-lite" products for the domestic consumption? Just got back from there, and the trend is hot (european sounding brand name, chinese designed and manufactured product).
Just a thought...
Green shoots, smoke em while you got em.
7 days RSI over 91... insane!
I don't usually follow RSI but they look high.
What are you looking at that's at 91?
SPY
I be the good looking sales girls are looking to cover their expenses the old fashioned way... maybe CNBC could give a special report on that industry.. I am long a and getting longer 10,000 here we come? ouch that was bad.
Great! That's why I have been partially participating in the green shoots rally. Bring em on!
Are you ready for the $1.1 trillion stimulus bill Obama is rumored to be preparing for November? Part of this includes the FDIC bailout.
A drop in the bucket.
I wish these consumers would stop having their incomes fall!
"And the market is enjoying this revenueless, earningless, growthless, and now consumerless recovery day after day, sending the market progressively higher."
You sound like Billy Graham. Were you a child preacher, a Marjoe, like he was? He always denied it, but my grandmother heard him on the radio.
Wow, i am shocked. Tyler Durden a long lost relation of Billy Graham...
The (HFT) computers seems rather confident.
What is the level of the computer confidence index?
Pete
myConfidence = getAnyData()
myConfidence = 100
if not(catastrophic(failure)) then
buyAnything()
else
buyRandom()
end if
if redButtonPushed = true then
sellAllNow()
end if
note that myConfidence is hardcoded and isn't read.
My McClellan Summation Index indicator has been at all time highs for about 3 months now - even higher than the top of the bull market in 07 and 99. Perfectly justified with all the great fundamentals of the US economy.
I like everyone follows the Conference Boards ConCon number. Their number has an exremely high correlation to the stock market. They ask a lot of people what's up with the economy and since they have no clue but have been taught since birth, the pediatrician talking his portfolio usually, that the stock market tells the future when the market rises and falls so does 'confidence'. Except the last two months. The market has been screaming at Joe and Jane that things are getting great and they are not listening.
The outline of the coming political problem are right there to see. The Pigmen are paying to get Joe and Jane stirred up against the administration, so the heat will be off of them. For all the adminstration has done for him they are going to throw them under the bus and run back and forth dozens of times. There will be blood, the Pigmen will buy new friends.
*Puff puff*
I see a bottom on that chart at current levels, clearly a base formation on route to new highs above +40
TA on consumer confidence is funny, let's test it on GDP lol
It will be interesting to see how much chinese inventory is ordered for xmas season for the retail sector.
Look @ the data near 91-92 recession. The low base was forming for happy days to come. So here the history is repeating once again. Happy days are coming back and here to stay. DOW 50,000.
England just hit sixty Consumer Confidence, highest since June 08. Meanwhile, permanent jobs is 46.1mil July and 48.6 in June. First mil plus fall since February. Rock on?
Lord Vold
Did you see the nice hockey stick @ shanghai? Expect high volatility for the next couple of months as the end of the J-like chart approaches, it's the "bubble" ready to pop... Probably after hsbc going public out there, of course
Lower income, higher consumer spending = BAD
Is it that hard for somebody on Bloomberg or CNBC to understand? If you earn less and spend more, then you are royally fucked
Or you are maxing out the credit card and have not a single fucking intention of paying a penny back. In which case, the banks are fucked and then the taxpayer fucked, again.