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ABC Consumer Confidence At Three Month Low: Comes In At -49 On Expectations Of -44
The decline in weekly consumer confidence as measured by ABC will not end. From -41 two weeks ago, this number has now fallen a dramatic 8 points to -49. And add another double-dip data point: after respondents were evenly split between those who think the economy is getting better and those who saw deterioration on December 13, 2009, the spread has surged with 36% now seeing a worsening while those who think things are getting better is now 24% - the worst reading since June 2009. People have just about had enough of change they can believe in.
The wording in the actual press release was not any better:
The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index, measuring current economic sentiment, stands at -49 on its scale of +100 to -100, 8 points lower than the start of the month and its lowest since Nov. 1. With its 6-point tumble last week, one of the sharpest one-week drops in 24 years of weekly polls, it’s within striking distance of its worst on record, -54 a year ago.
Expectations for the economy’s future, measured separately, are waning as well. This month significantly more say the economy is getting worse, 36 percent, than say it’s getting better, 24 percent. Last month, by contrast, economic optimists equaled pessimists at 30 percent each.
Blame, above all, the persistently negative employment situation. Unemployment remains at 10 percent; include discouraged workers – those no longer looking for a job – and it’s 17.3 percent, near its worst level in 16 years of data. The fallout from one in six Americans being out of work has ripple effects across families and the economy.
There are strong political impacts. A separate ABC News/Washington Post poll this week found Barack Obama down 15 points since he took office a year ago to 53 percent approval – almost exactly matching the first-year path of Ronald Reagan, the last president to take office in a recession. Fifty-two percent disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy, although more blame its condition on the Bush administration than on Obama’s.
It appears America's continuously deferred optimism is at an end:
With its 6-point one-month gain, the number of Americans saying the economy is getting worse is its highest since September. The number who say things are getting better is down a corresponding 6 points. And an additional 39 percent say the economy is staying the same – a broader sign of malaise, given how negatively it’s rated.
Can we all finally stop pretending that the fake rally in the stock market will boost consumer confidence: the primary, and perhaps only reason (aside from allowing insiders to sell record amounts of stock) for the massive S&P gains since the March lows.
And some more granular data:
The index as usual is higher among better-off Americans, but has been negative across the board for 47 weeks straight, the longest such run in available data since 1990. It’s -3 among those with the highest incomes but -74 among those with the lowest, -39 among people who’ve attended college vs. -57 among those who never finished high school, -44 among men while -52 among women, -46 among homeowners but -56 among renters and -46 among whites vs. -65 among blacks (their worst since April).
Republicans have reached a new low, -54, in data since 1990. That compares with -52 for Democrats (and -41 for independents). The insignificant 2-point gap in the Democrats’ favor is very unusual; this is only the 11th time it’s occurred. It compares with an average 18-point gap last year, an average 41 points in 2008 and an average 32 points long-term.
Here’s a closer look at the three components of the ABC News CCI:
NATIONAL ECONOMY – Nine percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good, the same as last week. The highest was 80 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 4 percent Feb. 8, 2009.
PERSONAL FINANCES – Forty-five percent say their own finances are excellent or good; it was 46 percent last week. The best was 70 percent, last reached in January 2000. The worst was 39 percent June 28 and 21, 2009.
BUYING CLIMATE – Twenty-three percent say it’s an excellent or good time to buy things; it was 24 percent last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 18 percent, last reached Oct. 19, 2008.
METHODOLOGY – Interviews for the ABC News Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week’s results are based on telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1,000 adults in the four weeks ending Jan. 17, 2010. The results have a 3-point error margin. The expectations question was asked of 500 respondents Jan. 6-17, 2010; that result has a 4.5-point error margin. Field work by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
The index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.
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Yeah, good thing now that everything is just humming along again that we can quit printing money through QE, right?
Data backs what I suspected all along... without Jobs consumers don't spend.
That's crazy talk, son. They'll just refinance their homes and max out their ever-expanding credit lines and sp...oh. Never mind.
The BLS can cook the numbers as much as they like for Wall Street, but they still can change what people are experiencing on Main Street.
Here comes the double part of the dip.
Is it possible that the American public has finally come to the realization that buying shit that is mostly produced in China, on credit, while your real wages decline year after year is not a good plan for the long term economic stability of their household?
Or are they just out of money and credit?
A subtle but profound question indeed.
Meredith Whitney says they're out of credit, but Bernanke keeps right on printing.
Just wait for the financial industry to make assessments concerning future employment and wages when making credit determinations.
Where, oh where, is Phil Gramm when we need him?
He's working hard to make sure Credit Suisse gets only hand slaps and penny fines for all the crimes.
hey rain, did you see the articles on Illinois over the weekend? They are putting on a full court press to beat out Cali. I am officially putting Illinois up to the 2 seed and moving NY down to 3.
Well as long as they're Superfly's home state they're guaranteed to be to big to fail.
Didn't see it, DH.
I've been rooting for NY to get the Silver. Especially after Mayor Bloom outlawed the use of salt shakers. Dude wants to keep the taxpayers alive longer by any means. He's taking your smokes too in NYC. Soon the Manhattan workers will need to get on the ferry to sneak a puff.
This is all deserving of Silver Medal status. Please don't tell me Ill is getting weirder than this...please.
NY Gov Patterson unveiled his budget plan today to close a 7 billion deficit.
After already raising cigarette taxes to the moon over the past several years, Patterson is proposing yet another buck per pack raise! He and Bloomberg need to get their shit together on this one.
my only remaining vice is that i smoke but there is a native american res near me, 27 bucks per carton.
Smoking is one of my remaining 3 or 4 vices. Which I think is very good, by the way. But like a true Kalifornian, I only smoke organic tobacco cigs... so as to preserve my robust chemical-free health....like the Indians. Only 52 bucks a Spirits carton at Costco, including numerous outrageous sneak taxes.
Taxes. Just goes to show there are planets beyond the Moon , my friend.
You'll never see a NY politician complaining about wall street bonuses. Earlier this year they created 2 new income tax tiers over the previous max of 6.85%. One tier goes up to 7.85% and for incomes over 500k, the new top NY personal income tax rate is 8.97.
My favorite response to that besides the well publicized Limbaugh defection out of his "northern command" was Tom Golisano of Paychex, who left the state. He was paying $14,000 per day for the privilege of living in NY. I happen to like Golisano quite a bit and wished he had won in his various runs for NY Gov. He also is very generous in his charitable donations.
NY loss is Florida's win.
We are in a deflationary period with huge gains in equities and commodities. Stagflation almost sounds cool, doesn't it? Stag party dudes, my house, we have a keg! Remember to bring the inflation!
And is the economy based on sentiment or not? maybe not? based on BS huh. dang.
I suppose the 9% that thinks the economy is doing a-okay must be the banksters and their hookers.
dont forget the coke dealers.
Its the Elliott Spitzer stimulus plan - coke and whores
ABC must be drifting to the right in order to publish stats like these.
Or to the actual Left, as opposed to whatever the hell it is we call "Left" here in the USA of today.
FRONT-RUNNING THE DEFLATIONARY COLLAPSE
In the construction industry we are 6 to 12 months ahead of the rest of the economy in terms of a deflationary collapse.
Stress level of all (remaining) employees is getting intense. All company communication is now emotionally charged and then some. Extreme rage over simple issues becoming common. Owner telling people he's not sure he'll be in business long; his (probably over-leveraged) son, dept head, mysteriously MIA for the last 30 days with rumours orders are out for no one to talk to him; Owners general mgr daughter on sleeping pills since last April (and we haven't even got to the real bad part yet). Mgmt in lock-up - none one knows what's going on week to week; very little work lined up for 2010; visiting construction company owners have the look of fear in their eyes, working single mom's stretched to the max, etc, etc , etc.
While I appreciate ABC's reporting on consumer confidence it's not even close to what's happening on the ground. I live there every day. It's getting real ugly and it's coming your way.
Thanks.
But I do have to point out, when business really stops, that's when the real money printing starts and how you end up with Argentina (Deflationary Collapse meets currency collapse).
We are getting both, just like they did.
Gold, Food, Guns, Smokes, Booze, those things will keep you alive (don't forget toilet paper).
Actually in order it would be
Guns
Smokes
Booze
Food
Toilet paper (to go with the food)
Gold
right on
we can see it,smell it and unfortunately taste it
the bulls are just plain retarded, should be slaughtered and made into hamburger meat
FAST FOOD NATION!
lmfaoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
has it occurred to anyone on this site that, as objective as your analysis may seem, only provides fuel to drive the market higher? professional traders are just dying for you suckers to come into the market thinking, "this is it. this is the big one! we're going down!" and then you get run over as the market rallies another 10-12%.
the psychology of markets always overwhelms any fundamental evaluations. this is why markets always go higher/lower than they are "supposed to" as a fundamental analyst would tell you.
70% rally in the last 9 months doesn't mean the market can't rally another 70% in the next 9. as long as enough jerkoffs are around collectively yelling, "YOU CAN'T DO THIS, CREDIT CONDITIONS DON'T CONFIRM YOUR EQUITY VALUATIONS!!!", then the market will keep rallying.
When you start to see consensus estimates of year-end S&P hitting 1400+, that's a good tip-off to herd psychology shifting meaningfully. The herd psychology has to be overwhelmingly bullish for the market to make any breaks to the downside that are more than 10-15%.
"has it occurred to anyone on this site that, as objective as your analysis may seem, only provides fuel to drive the market higher? professional traders are just dying for you suckers to come into the market thinking, "this is it. this is the big one! we're going down!" and then you get run over as the market rallies another 10-12%"
Why do you think that one's analysis and one's exposure should be one and the same? Or you assume that anyone in the world who's not trading for an INSTITUTION is a "jerkoff"?
"When you start to see consensus estimates of year-end S&P hitting 1400+"
I'm starting to hear that quite often since 01/01/10..
Concerning the question of whether lenders look at future potential earnings and job prospects before making credit decisions, they have already implemented that policy in earnest last year such that if there is any thing that resembles an earnings decline or possible layoff in the future, the file is suspended or declined.
I am simply amazed at the disconnect between what you describe and the markets. My god, hw can REITs and home builders be charging ahead when the on the ground reality is the whole industry is imploding? Something is really wrong with this picture.
Vainamoinen !! Spare us the grief and graphic descriptions!! I cant handle the truth on ZH anymore...
Why don't I see this story in MSM? Surprise baby surprise..)