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ABC Consumer Index Drops To Lowest Reading Since Fall, Divergence From UMich Propaganda Reading At Record

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The most recent ABC Confidence index came in at -49, just five points higher than the all time low of -54 set last January and is now at the lowest level since last fall. The prior week reading was -48, and the consensus for this week was -45, implying a substantial miss from expectations. The persistent deterioration in this index is increasingly at odds with other consumer readings, considering that the other two CONfidence indices, the UMichigan consumer sentiment and the Conference Board consumer confidence index both increased in January from the December readings. Currently the relative divergence between the ABC index and the UMich and Conference Board is at record wides. We sincerely hope that the government will soon come out with an index that tracks the credibility of all its other indexes.

From the ABC press release:

Americans’ ratings of the buying climate have softened to their worst level since fall, holding consumer confidence near its record low.
The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index stands at -49 on its scale of +100 to -100, in a 2-point range the past four weeks and just 5 points from its all-time low in 24 years of weekly polls, -54 last January. Its long-term average is -13.
Improved ratings of the buying climate led an advance in December, with the CCI reaching -41 the first week of January. That’s evaporated: Seventy-eight percent now call it a bad time to buy things they want and need, up 8 points in seven weeks.
The other two components of the index have been steadier, but remain weak. Fifty-five percent rate their own finances negatively and 91 percent say the national economy’s in bad shape.

Readings across the index' main verticals were as follows:

INDEX – Views of the economy overall are the worst of the index’s three measures. Only 9 percent of Americans rate it positively, 29 points below the long-term average and in single digits for 10 weeks straight.
Just 22 percent call it a good time to spend money, 15 points worse than average. And 45 percent rate their personal finances positively, 12 points below average and below a majority for 77 of the last 80 weeks.

TREND – The index has been below -40 for a record 93 consecutive weeks. It’s just a point above the -50 mark, a level its reached 23 times since the recession began in December 2007, compared with just once previously, in February 1992, in weekly polls since December 1985. As noted, the CCI showed faint signs of life late last year, reaching -41 Jan. 3, a 16-month high. But it took a sharp 6-point tumble the next week and has been basically flat since.

GROUPS – The index as usual is higher among better-off Americans, but has been negative across the board for 49 weeks straight, the longest such run in available data since 1990. It’s -6 among those with the highest incomes but -75 among those with the lowest, -39 among people who’ve attended college vs. -70 among those who never finished high school (their lowest since November), -46 among homeowners but -61 among renters (their lowest since October) and -47 among men vs. -52 among women.
Notable this week is the racial gap, -51 among whites (a point from their lowest ever) vs. -47 among blacks; it’s only the 8th time since 1990 the index has been numerically higher among blacks than whites (five of those since President Obama’s inauguration).
Partisan gaps have been narrower this year. This week the index is -46 for Republicans vs. -51 for Democrats (and -49 for independents). That 5-point Republican-Democratic gap compares with an 18-point gap last year, 41 points in 2008 and 32 points long-term.

The fact that an increasingly wide margin between "confidence" indexes can possibly exist is an observation that surpasses mere methodology constraints. At this point it is obvious that procyclical indices like the UMich, which are primarily driven by a reaction to the market levels, will continue growing ever higher, which in turn will drive the low-volume algos to push the market higher yet, creating a closed loop. Yet for all those who couldn't care less about the stock market, which is a sizable portion of the population the sad economic reality is getting worse and worse.

 


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Tue, 02/02/2010 - 19:47 | Link to Comment bugs_
bugs_'s picture

I'm not deep captured so I'm miserable.

I am deep captured and I'm happy about it - so what!!

 

Tue, 02/02/2010 - 21:41 | Link to Comment Chopshop
Chopshop's picture

ask patty 'yuk-yuk' / 'hannibal' byrne ... how that deepcapture is working for him.

can anyone name the other dutch ipo since '02 ??  OSTK and ....

Wed, 02/03/2010 - 00:35 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 02/02/2010 - 19:49 | Link to Comment Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

"Currently the relative divergence between the ABC index and the UMich and Conference Board is at record wides. "

 

Can we write derivatives contracts on the spread? 

Wed, 02/03/2010 - 09:57 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 02/02/2010 - 20:38 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

The indices ought to be going up; everyone I know is confident ... that we are fuxored big time.

Me and the confidence index did your mom. Twice.

Hey, I notice that uneducated people are less confident these days than educated people. Goes to show that just because you went to college doesn't mean you have the sense to get off the tracks.

So why are black people more confident than whites? Maybe it's because they sense that the playing field is about to get a whole lot more level. This March, all of America becomes a broken down suburb of Detroit.

Thank you thank you you've been a great audience. I'll be here all week. And don't forget to tip the waitress.

Tue, 02/02/2010 - 23:32 | Link to Comment JR
JR's picture

I have an “educated” information engineer living in my home with me these past few weeks looking for a job.  It is getting harder and harder for my unemployed friends to find work—ranging from teachers to engineers to management.  I’ve employed a mechanical engineer part time whose hours have been cut; he can no longer provide for his family.  A consultant engineer I work with is down to one job.

And Lawrence Summers, Obama’s economic advisor, notes that, in the United States, one in five men aged 25 to 54 is now jobless.

Gad, I hate them!

 

 

Tue, 02/02/2010 - 21:03 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 02/02/2010 - 21:09 | Link to Comment Edna R. Rider
Edna R. Rider's picture

A contrarian indicator?  He he.

Tue, 02/02/2010 - 21:25 | Link to Comment Hondo
Hondo's picture

ABC news correlated much closer to actual consumer consumption as reported in the soon to be revised GDP numbers.

Tue, 02/02/2010 - 21:25 | Link to Comment Racer
Racer's picture

Key difference between the UoM and ABC and how they are calculated?

 

One is released during market hours and one much after close... guess which one is the better one.......

Tue, 02/02/2010 - 21:40 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 02/03/2010 - 00:33 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 02/03/2010 - 00:45 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 02/03/2010 - 01:17 | Link to Comment KevinB
KevinB's picture

We sincerely hope that the government will soon come out with an index that tracks the credibility of all its other indexes.

Not to nitpick, but aren't the three indices created by Reuters, ABC News, and the University of Michigan? None of those are government organizations that I can see.

Wed, 02/03/2010 - 08:52 | Link to Comment Anonymous
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