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Abysmal Volume Means Lowest Participation Trading Holiday Week In Years
One look at today's trading volume speaks volumes about the state of the market. While today is not the lowest volume day in the past several years, it closely competed with Thanksgiving for the worst participation day in 2010. Furthermore, keep in mind that traditionally record low volumes are reserved for the days just before the New Year. Which means that since we have three more trading days until the end of the week, we will certainly see at least a one day in the upcoming three, when the volume will be the lowest recorded probably this century. Welcome to the new volume normal, when two computers pass three shares to each other all day long. And if there is one thing the flash crash should have taught us, is that computers take months to accumulate a position, and milliseconds to unload... Also what this non-existent volume means for broker commission sales, we leave it up to Dick Bove's abacus.
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I have never seen the consolidated volume THIS low for a full day Tyler.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/markets/
This data is delayed but still, I'd guess lowest in a decade.
I kept hitting the side of my monitor to see if the pixels were stuck today :)
Longer look at vol.
http://www.investmenttools.com/equities/dailybreath/new_york_stock_exchange_volume_advance_decline_line.htm
The impatience of the dip-buying monkeys is amazing.
Lots of IBD Top 100 mo-mo queens were bought heavily today.
Nobody even bothered to wait for them to get back to the 50-day.
Screamer stocks with huge P/E's like VMW went to new, lifetime highs.
Some stocks on the list have been smoked off the highs like AEM, but those are few and far between.
Charts of all 100 stocks here (20-min. delay):
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=9592582
So now buying a dip is showing impatience? Now everyone should be stuck-on-retard buy-at-any-price-whatever-monkeys?
Is that today's recommendation robot?
" stuck-on-retard buy"
Classic Fidel, +1111
The Amerikan Public "stuck-on-retard-_____" explains a lot of things from elections to consumption to denial to reality TeeVee to ignorance...
VMW hit an all time high? Really?
Impotence of the market. Ha, good one Pooptrader!
Another new high for Molycorp. Just like Palladium. Anything and everything that is used in smartphones, Apple products, iPods, or whatever is bought with the utmost urgency.
Don't forget bombs, nuclear reactors, gas turbines, and medical equipment.
Explains the move in AVL. But what about STSA and BANR?
great time to buy stocks! new normal! things are different! time tested valuation methods are outdated!
http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-dividend-yield/
/roll eyes
this will end in tears just like it always has over and over and over and over and over and over.....breathe....and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over.
And AAPL itself continues to push to all time highs. Not running fast but nice and steady. The kind you buy and stick away for a few years as it slowly pushes higher and higher.
Why HarryWanger? Why would anyone buy appl? Because people will be using credit cards to the tune of how much to buy laptops and ipads? How many ipads does each person need? What about descretionary spending plus savings? How is America's saving s vs debt? How many people have fulltime work they are happy with? Because U 6 is what Harry?
-What is U 6?
Ah, My Little Pony friend - you do realize that Harry is running a professional experiment on "perma-bears" that he writes a column on?
You know what they say at the zoo - don't feed the trolls.
I try to ignore him but he infuriates me!
That's HarryWanker... Timmay's lil' brother...
+1
Some of us have been lobbying Tyler to add an IGNORE button to this site. If Tyler agrees, I think you will see Harry and Robo essentially disappear from this forum.
Harry,
Apple does have a big global playground. The kings of marketing, a big plus also...
They sure do and the world wants their products. They have a good long run ahead of them on global demand.
Blah, blah, blah.
I sold my MCP position today for a nice profit. Let's see if I picked a top. Molycorp stock is pure speculation at this point.
This is really starting to feel like December 1999 - March 2000 again.
Looks like a picked a bad day to quit my shut the fuck up Robo button.
Actually, we have 4 days left to "trade" (ha!ha!) Friday will set the record low vol - from NYSE website:
"New Years' Day (January 1) in 2011 falls on a Saturday. The rules of the applicable exchanges state that when a holiday falls on a Saturday, we observe the preceding Friday unless the Friday is the end of a monthly or yearly accounting period. In this case, Friday, December 31, 2010 is the end of both a monthly and yearly accounting period; therefore the exchanges will be open that day and the following Monday."
Is it any wonder, given the Chinese rate hike over Christmas and the Dallas Fed's Texas Manufacturing Index missing expectations Of 17 and coming in at 12.8, and STILL the indices close UP on the day, that there is no volume?
No one trusts this market any more, and yet the morons in charge can't figure out why no one wants to invest because of their manufactured rising markets.
Sheesh.
DavidC
I expected the market to tank for 2 - 3 days after the PBoC rate hike.
But the "Buy the Dip" crowd is very impatient.
Must watch the FXI to see if it gaps up and leaves all the late short sellers stranded.
Commercial real estate is plummeting.
There are no jobs.
Small businesses are going broke every day.
Economic activity remains dead according to official statistics. The real statistics are probably far worse.
But that doesn't slow down the HeatMappers, who take a stock like Steelcase to new 2-year highs.
Maybe all the PigMen firms are upgrading all their furniture at once?
Nobody can argue with the direction. Just don't fool yourself into believing that this is happening on its own. Without the FED and the recent $1-trillion tax-cut and spending bill (read: more stimulus) this would not be happening.
Send your thank you cards to Zimbabwe-Ben at the Fed.
Don't forget the BDIY at 1,773.00
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Cheap shipping must be good for office furniture sales?
Commercial real estate is plummeting.
There are no jobs.
Small businesses are going broke every day.
Economic activity remains dead according to official statistics. The real statistics are probably far worse.
Based upon your posts, I believe these comments were facetious?? Because CRE is actually starting to move up from the bottom. Dallas Fed showed a huge improvement in the employment component today and claims are falling weekly. I see small business sentiment rising to levels of 2007 with new businesses springing up everywhere. Economic activity is definitely not "dead". We're clearly seeing growth. Slow, but growth nonetheless.
You write this everyday even though it is wrong.
Wrong? Really? Let's see, did you read the Dallas Fed report on employment today??? Let's see, are claims still rising??? Let's see, did retail just have one of the best holiday seasons in years??? Let's see, is GDP negative??? Leading Index negative???
I'd say pretty much every single indicator out there is showing some growth now. To deny that with your head firmly placed in the sand is not a wise move.
What does economic news have to do with the stock market?
It's illusory Harry. What would our GDP be if the Fed wasn't printing money (ahem trillions)? Are people paying their mortgages or are they neglecting their mortgages and buying IPODS? Is that healthy and sustainable? Are wages increasing? Are input costs rising? Are margins getting squeezed? Are long-term, self-sustaining jobs being created or are 500,000 per/year jobs being replaced by $8 per/hour jobs? What about food stamp use Harry, what trends do you see in food stamps?
I could go on and on but this is boring. Your Red Herring bullshit is getting old.
Also, why the insider selling, apart from options exercises for personal expenses cash flow? What would be the incentive to sell if the people running the companies are expecting better days ahead?
That's really the brass tacks, isn't it Harry?
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AAPL
Scroll down to the bottom, Harry. Are those insider sales indicitive of mental retardation? Why would they be selling Apple stock at those prices, when the mean target is 378? Are they completely fucking stupid, Harry?
Some of us have been lobbying Tyler to add an IGNORE button to this site. If Tyler agrees, I think you will see Harry and Robo essentially disappear from this forum.
I don't support an "ignore" button. As much as I think posters like Harry are out to lunch and/or just plain selling disinformation, the ignore feature would foster "group think" which would be detrimental to this site.
-What is U 6?
Harry - your comments mock the friends and family I have out there actually struggling in this economy. You are just trolling for your professional survey. Here's a small business confidence survey: http://www.discovercard.com/business/watch/
62% of the respondents rate the economy poor, v. 5% rating it good. 74% of the respondents said the recession has depleted their retirement savings.
So seriously Harry, please leave. I'm tired of your experiment...
Some highlights of the survey:
25 percent of small business owners said the economy is getting better this month, down from 33 percent in November; 51 percent said it is getting worse, up from 46 percent; and 22 percent said the economy is staying the same, up from 17 percent the prior month
25 percent of small business owners expect economic conditions for their businesses to improve in the first half of 2011, a drop from 28 percent a month ago; 26 percent expect conditions to remain the same, up from 24 percent; and 43 percent expect conditions to worsen, down from 44 percent in November
21 percent of small business owners will increase spending on business development in the next 6 months, down from 25 percent in November. 42 percent will decrease business development spending, up from 40 percent; and 32 percent do not plan any changes, up from 28 percent last month
62 percent rate the current economy as poor, up from 59 percent in November; 30 percent rate the economy fair; 5 percent rate it good; and 3 percent rate it excellent
At the same time, the recession has depleted the savings of 74 percent of small business owners, the same number as last year, while 20 percent said the recession had no impact, and 5 percent saw their retirement savings increase
78% of the respondents want to tell Harry Wanger to "Fuck off"
60 now and it aint no bigger than when i was 30. Some things just quit growing
Thanks to low volume we might get a nice christmass present :)
And as a lot of retail traders think jan. will be bad and jumped ship we'll get something totally different.
No crash but a spike as anybody will want to get back in when the first week turns green.
Christmas is over.
"christmass, yes christmasses, yes me pretty"
Boston-NYC-Washington corridor all shut down yesterday and today. Retail shot for "bahginz"
Lots of buying (but not impulse) just moved to Jan, with 12" - 24" of "global warming" just dropped on us.
and tonight, well it is all clear here--so we have "radiational cooling"
- Ned
(and my back hasn't felt this way since ...)
Who will bid for stocks this high without any correction, the Federal Reserve Bank Of New York thats who. I knew the indexes would be green by days end.
PPT/New York [ Federal Reserve ] District.
+1
HFT Computers made sure that the only ones that could make Money in the Market was them. They suceeded. They can make a profit for .0099 cents, no one else can. They make their profit on volume, no one else can.
Problem is that almost everyone has figured it out and is OUT of the Market. So, let them trade with themselves all day, who cares.
Interesting that CNBC that I was listening to while making some soup was talking about where is the Retail Investor. Why should they even care? Why are they so concerened about the Retail Investor? The HFT Computers make Money on Churning so why do they care about the Retail Investor?
CNBC always shills for Wall Street. They want retail investors (suckers) to jump in so the big firms, hedge funds can make few tens of billions fleecing the suckers. Just by the dip.
Maybe it is good that Retail is not in the Market as they keep pumping higher and higher waiting for them. Although, I would not buy at these prices. I guess someone may but will they get enough buyers at the very tippie tippie top to sell all of the long investors positions? That is the real question. Is there enough money on the side to buy out all of the Traders and longs at the top? Like musical chairs but at this point there are 100 players and one chair.
As far as your advise to buy the dip, I will pass and stay away. Only until they have another 2008 will I buy. Might take another 3 years but I will wait. I have nothing to lose staying on the sidelines but buying at the top there is a lot to lose. Just look at the Naz crash. Most stocks went down over 95% from there high. Some have never regained there top, even after 10 years.
How about 9-11 there are many stocks that never regained their prior price even today.
How about 2008 there are so many stocks that have not regained their prior price since 2008. Everyone watches the Mo Mo stocks but look at all of the rest of the stocks they have gone no where.
More Abacus....and Cowbell
Uhh, OK.
really, we need more of you ;-)
Yield buying into the close. Someone is expecting a sell off Tuesday, other than me. Settlement period, bitchez!
With all the snow of course volume was going to be light. Once everyone gets back in we may see a huge spike up in equities before the end of the week.
Why do we even let it snow, the snow just keeps us from our dreams of spending trillions of dollars on discretionary items! Blame the snow!
It catches everyone off-guard every single winter. We should start to just assume it's going to snow above the Mason-Dixon line sometime around...ohhh, I don't know...December through February. But, then again, it makes for a wonderful excuse.
Boilermaker--don'tcha know that those bastards also made it snow in Atlanta? In Alabama?
Many are looking for Al Gore to clear this up, but, (I have it on good authority) he's looking for someone to release his second chakra.
go figure. ;-)
- Ned
Buying PM's everytime el Oro drops below 1375 and silver below 29.
...and when is that?
why such surprise at the Fed involving itslef in the equity markets. If you recall they did the same thing with housing to try to create jobs under Clinton/Bush. We all now where that ended.
There is no other market that the Fed can ry to create a wealth effct in. Do you agree? the issue here is what is going to happen when the real econopmy doesnt perform?
after santa rally and a little leveling the traditional nasdaq jan swoon mayget some umph behind it as the six month discounting mechanism begins to look at QE2 and ARRA winding down, new congressional dynamics, and the last of the really big spikes in mortgage resets JUN11.
Joe Saluzzi's right - when the market goes, all the HFTs will pull their bids, the trapdoor will be open and there will be nothing below. All these idiots are doing is ensuring that the ultimate results of this crisis (and, make no mistake, NOTHING has been remedied since 2007/2008) will be even worse than they might have been.
Dow 3,000, S&P 400 and FTSE 1,750 before this is done.
DavidC
That is one reason why I would never buy. There is no REAL bid under the Market and the Stock prices. There used to be when there were Day Traders. They would sell at the top for the day and buy at the days low. Rinse repeat, but they are not there any more. Only the Computers.
That is one reason I've been considering various long term put and call spreads. I don't think it can continue another full year.
Oh, and yes, I'm bearish...
DavidC
Regardless of who or what is driving the tape. The tape always tips us off before the market plunges. Mainly, the bank stocks are the first ones to roll. Often weeks before the top is in. Look at every single major top, its the same. Banks always crack first.
Right now, bank stocks getting stronger, not weaker.
As Bill O'Neil at IBD describes it, "working up the right side of a base, making higher highs and higher lows..."
I follow most of the bank stocks here. Especially the "worst of the worst" junkers here in Los Angeles.
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=9466140
And the once ZH-revered ECRI Leading Index is in positive territory at 0.8%. That comes off the July low of -11% that the ZH crowd and Rosie were sure, actually pretty positive, that we'd see another recession out of that.
Of course that never happened and the much revered indicator is never discussed here and probably never will again now that it's positive.
Look wanger it is no secret that the msm.gov has declared a recovery from the resession, even though it is an on going depression.
Harry - look at the timing of QE2 rumors, look at the Bush tax cuts holding. Do you think this was done because we were on a "V" trajectory as you continually stated? The answer is no. Apparently "The Bernanke" and "The Geitner" also believed there were risks of a stall and potentially major downturn or else none of that would have happened. Do not for one minute overlook the fact that massive government intervention has been required to stave off the reality of a grim situation. Now whether they can continue this or not and eventually lead to sustainable quality growth is another debate but without them we'd be toast.
BTW - your own predictions of a V recovery never contained the caveat "with continuous government stimulus or we'll completely stall out". No one preaching the "V" in the first half of 2010 said anything of the sort, but that's the truth of what was required to get the steady equity market wasn't it?
I'm not saying you are bad or your points are invalid. I'm merely suggesting we look at things with a bit of reality and consider not throwing stones at the glass houses of others when your own glass house is merely accross the street.
Thanks for the charts and thoughts the last few weeks, great info-
Thanks RT, the tip about the banks is new to me.
Tyler/Anyone
You just have to post this,it is a keyboard/screen spray inducing article.
A survey of leading economists predict the Fed will purchase the $600bn and then STOP!!!
Laugh?I nearly bought a round.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-bond-buys-unlikely-to-top-600-bln-economists-2010-12-27?dist=afterbell
Apologies for the double post, a little excess of the Graham's Late Bottled Vintage Port (2005) methinks.
Third up day in a row for the NYSE Summation.
Nasdaq Summation is still outperforming by a long mile.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNYSE.html
Yep, and once again all those screaming the market is overbought aren't even close to being correct yet. Lot's of room to run higher before any meaningful pull back.
How much room? Give specifics and add value to your posting.
dude-who knows? They are following the tape, (as they say) and teasing the "fundamental" bearish folks here. Different mindsets on display.
... oh, sorry, gotta go, popcorn just bleeped at me.
- Ned
i get the impression this will remain a zimbabwe market (to the moon) till it cant.
got chair?
Half of NYC is snowed under, yet guys are still overanxious to buy. After hours, 13 million shares of Citibank have traded already, and it is up a measly penny.
The markets are manipulated. Who owns most of the stock? Not the average Joe (but if it's the government or Fed buying from the well connected, he will whether he likes it or not). I also wonder about these parabolic moves in what is basically a load of crap over the last few months. Could this not be short covering/capitulation? Unless the government is buying who else has the resources to vacuum up all this crud?
Need alittle more cowbell
That's RobotTrader going solo instead of taking some much needed time off
Gold lease rates have exploded 1 mth-1yr up over 60 bps--look for gold to move up $150 by end Feb 2011. Last time a rate move like this was in Aug--gold moved up 200.
Get strapped in.
Missed your post before posting below.
Yup. It's going to get ugly.
I was out buying 100inch TV's for my 19 houses and decided to have them all delivered by UPS and received by my slaves whihc i paid triple time for the holidays
Doing my bit for the economy
Did I miss something in the markets?
huh, since I was out and wasn't buying apple for 700 times it's real value I guess that makes me a market maker now
huh - cool
Maybe they'll make a cuddly bear movie about me call the "THE MOGUL"
Most wall street professionals I know didn't make it to work today. A foot plus of snow will do that to you and might explain why volume was so low.
Laughing at the asian opening of gold december 28th.
Someone opened the 40 lb box of rape again.
http://www.filehurricane.com/media/3025