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Accelerating Deposit Flight In Ireland Forces Irish Central Bank To Print Money Independent Of ECB

Tyler Durden's picture





 

It appears that Irish savers are sufficiently smart to realize that their money is no longer safe in a banking system whose existence is now only backstopped merely from referendum to referendum. As it is very unclear what will happen to the IMF/ECB rescue mechanism once the Irish election is held in March, with a material possibility that the whole plan will be unwound, leaving the country's financial system in the wind, a behind the scenes bank run is accelerating. Incidentally while this was the topic of the December letter by Guggenheim's Scott Minerd, which we discussed in a post titled "Scott Minerd's Detailed Pre-Mortem On What Europe's Bank Run Will Look Like, And Other Observations", his just released January missive deals with precisely the same topic (see chart below). So faced with the prospect of accelerating deposit redemptions, what does the Irish Central Bank go ahead and do? According to the Independent it has gone ahead and proceeded with that traditional recourse to all regimes in the bring: print money. "The Irish Independent learnt last night that the Central Bank of Ireland is financing €51bn of an emergency loan programme by printing its own money." In other words, whereas Ben Bernanke may be 100% confident that US inflation courtesy of POMO and inflation printing will be absorbed by the "massive" excess slack in the economy (oddly enough it wasn't in Tunisia, as food prices hit records despite surging unemployment), we wonder if he feels the same way about other countries in the world, which are already part of a monetary union, yet which have decided to boost the "other assets" line in their balance sheets.

More from The Independent:

ECB lending to banks in Ireland fell from €136.4bn in November to €132bn at the end of December, according to the figures released by the Irish Central Bank yesterday.

At the same time, the bank increased its emergency lending by €6.4bn, bringing the total it is owed to €51bn.

The latest data does show a levelling off in demand for the loans. Emergency lending to banks shot up €16bn in November, but overall demand for the loans only increased by €2bn in December when ECB and Irish Central Bank figures are combined.

However, the figures also provide the latest evidence that responsibility for funding Ireland's broken banks is being pushed increasingly back on to Irish taxpayers. The loans are recorded by the Irish Central Bank under the heading "other assets".

A spokesman for the ECB said the Irish Central Bank is itself creating the money it is lending to banks, not borrowing cash from the ECB to fund the payments. The ECB spokesman said the Irish Central Bank can create its own funds if it deems it appropriate, as long as the ECB is notified.

News that money is being created in Ireland will feed fears already voiced this week by ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet that inflation is a potential concern for the eurozone.

What is the ECB's response to learning that its own member countries have essentially detached themselves from the ECB monetary mechanism?

A source at the ECB said the European bank is comfortable that the amounts involved are small enough not to be systemically significant. The ECB has been lending money to banks in Ireland at just 1pc, as long as the banks can put up acceptable collateral.

The volume of those loans surged from €95bn in August 2010 to €136.4bn in November, as Irish banks repaid their bondholders without being able to refinance in the private sector. The ECB loans prevented banks that could not raise funds from the private sector running out of cash after repaying their own lenders and meeting deposit withdrawals.

So let's do the math: ICB "money printing" has increased by €40 billion. For a country whose GDP is about €160 billion, this means that Ireland has printing the equivalent of 25% of its GDP. Put in American terms, this would be the equivalent of about $3.5 trillion in 3 months... In this context we wonder just what the ECB considers "systemically significant."

Tangentially, speaking of "other assets" we can't help by note what we observed during our last comment of the Fed's balance sheet. At $114.480 billion, it may behoove someone to inquire just how the Fed has well over $100 billion in "Other Assets" and what is contained in there. The chart below shows how this number has grown. Frankly, for all we know this could be shares of Amazon and Netflix stock. After all, these are "assets" and they most certainly are "other."

But back to Ireland. We would like to end with a chart created by Scott Minerd showing the wholesale abdication of Irish banks by its depositors:

And his comment on the one trend that the ECB has been unable to reverse yet in any of the distressed countries:

There is a plethora of proof that the crisis isn’t abating. Greece’s long-term issuer default rating was just cut to junk by Fitch with a negative outlook. In addition, the problems in the Irish banking system continue to expand. In November alone, 27 billion euros of domestic deposits (5.4 percent of the total deposit base) fled Irish banks. Total deposits were down 15.1 percent year-over-year and deposits from non-Irish residents declined 28.6 percent. Keep in mind that the crisis in Ireland didn’t broadly surface until late in November. I realize that I said the same thing last month about the situation in Ireland, but with data trending like this I cringe thinking about what the next set of monthly data may reveal.

In other words, just like investors in US stocks, so depositors in European banks refuse to be lied to again. And the more money printed by the ECB (or regional banks as we now learn) as a response to deal with this capital shortfall, the greater the inflation threats will be across Europe. Of course, these will merely reinforce already validated inflation in Africa, and most certainly Asia. And somehow the US government and Ben Bernanke is expecting anyone to believe that just because the highly irrelevant Core CPI is flat that America will not be next?

h/t Ciaran

 

 


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Sun, 01/16/2011 - 11:21 | Link to Comment traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

But, but Harry had a record Q4! And Robo posted a chart of a stock going up after the fact. All is well, all is well... /s

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 12:01 | Link to Comment More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

And somehow the US government and Ben Bernanke is expecting anyone to believe that just because the highly irrelevant Core CPI is flat that America will not be next?

LOL!

Paleomonetarists have been predicting "hyperinflation, real soon!" since the end of 2008. They have been predicting it for Japan since 1998 but somehow the exact opposite happened (as predicted by non-monetarist economic models).

Make up your mind: which year will it be, or, at least, which decade?

 

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 12:13 | Link to Comment Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Paleomonetarists have had a sudden rise in popularity in Tunisia. Soon everywhere else.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 13:21 | Link to Comment Chappaquiddick
Chappaquiddick's picture

Well said.

However, it isn't at all obvious which way it'll tip:

[http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/

FRIDAY, JANUARY 14, 2011  Zombie Money Kills Real People

2: Inflation]

And for the record I totally respect these guy's.

 

Oh and BTW - have a look at this gem:

https://marketforceanalysis.com/article/latest_article_011511.html

 

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 13:33 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture
by Chappaquiddick
on Sun, 01/16/2011 - 12:21
#880024

 

Well said.

However, it isn't at all obvious which way it'll tip:

[http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/

 

FRIDAY, JANUARY 14, 2011  Zombie Money Kills Real People

2: Inflation]

And for the record I totally respect these guy's.

 

Oh and BTW - have a look at this gem:

https://marketforceanalysis.com/article/latest_article_011511.html

*****************************************************************************

Tip? like tip the water / bar tender in Ireland with the new money? The people won, rebelion quelled.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 14:14 | Link to Comment Popo
Popo's picture

The people won?    I missed that part.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 16:38 | Link to Comment Chappaquiddick
Chappaquiddick's picture

Tip:

As in see-saw, nodding-donkey, your hat.

NOT as in a waiter, a refuse depot, of a pencil, the end of my middle finger as it moves first vertically up then down, in your face for several hours.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_finger

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 20:00 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture
by Chappaquiddick
on Sun, 01/16/2011 - 15:38
#880295

 

Tip:

As in see-saw, nodding-donkey, your hat.

NOT as in a waiter, a refuse depot, of a pencil, the end of my middle finger as it moves first vertically up then down, in your face for several hours.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_finger

********************************************************************************

I am still laughing... Thank You Kind Sir...

But as to the point, that you skipped...

Now that the people have been satisfied, now that this will run 24 hours a day as a win for the Irish people... whats next? nada... as in nothing.... nada, nothing, zip, zilcho!

Ireland has been saved but its leadership. or the masses have been appeased, to be wholey accurate and correct.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 20:31 | Link to Comment Chappaquiddick
Chappaquiddick's picture

JW - you've lost me.

What I was referring to was either the US system tipping into inflation or deflation and I think its obvious that we really don't know yet which way it will go.  For many countries outside the US inflation is most definitely the big issue.  It has lead directly to the coup in Tunisia.  It will prompt others into civil unrest too.

 

As for Ireland you need clarify what you mean.  I thought the Irish were just sold down the river into the arms of the IMF.  That does not sound like a victory or something with which the people would be satisfied.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 22:24 | Link to Comment Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

When you're getting fucked, it's not as important whether it's missionary position or doggie style as whether it's consensual.

Or, to make it a date rape analogy, if she didn't jump out of his car when it slowed down, the bitch was just beggin' for it.

Inflation, deflation, biflation, reflation. It really doesn't matter. We're all getting fucked without our expressed consent. Because it's being done with such force, it's going to hurt, no matter which way we're facing.

Hold the gold and be especially nice to family and friends. No matter what 'flation sweeps the nation, they're the ones who will get us through this. And they'll do it consensually because they love us and because it's in their best interest too.

I KNOW that's how the Irish keep doing it, crisis after crisis.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 00:23 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

JW - you've lost me.

What I was referring to was either the US system tipping into inflation or deflation and I think its obvious that we really don't know yet which way it will go.  For many countries outside the US inflation is most definitely the big issue.  It has lead directly to the coup in Tunisia.  It will prompt others into civil unrest too.

 

As for Ireland you need clarify what you mean.  I thought the Irish were just sold down the river into the arms of the IMF.  That does not sound like a victory or something with which the people would be satisfied.

********************************************************************************

Sorry Bro my bad... I was punning the Irish people winning with the new print series... that was my hole gag! sorry my bad... it did not translate and I lack a copy editor.

I dont know about de-flation... we have a real de-flation in the value of our currency, thats just plain ole' 1 + 1 or in this case... 30% in new currency ='s 30% less value too that same currency.. in real plain ole' 1 +1 terms.

as for inflation... is it inflation or cost adjustment? due to the new dollars?

I would like to see someone with talent chart that out.

sorry about my puns, I was reaching for funny and only got funny looking.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 13:59 | Link to Comment hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

Thanks chappaquiddick that blogspot at auto earth was an excellent piece.

I am "gobsmacked" that no-one has picked up on this one referded to the article below:

http://blogs.forbes.com/robertlenzner/2011/01/12/us-banks-reporting-phantom-income-on-1-4-trillion-delinquent-mortgages/

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 14:24 | Link to Comment Missiondweller
Missiondweller's picture

Thanks for posting this. This is unbeleivable. And banks are leading the way up on the S&P?

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 16:57 | Link to Comment Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

I read that article as well and found it thought provoking. They seem to be saying what we have now and for some time is deflation and the rising prices in food and energy are due mostly to speculation. The argument is that you can't have inflation in one sector and deflation in another sector. Any opinions on that argument?

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 17:19 | Link to Comment Chappaquiddick
Chappaquiddick's picture

I'm no expert - which probably gives me a head start - but I'd suggest that the US is in a deflationary death spiral.  As inflation can be considered a tax on the people, the Benancke doctrine of print, print, print is resulting in taxation of the rest of the world. Unfortunately, the hole is so deep that all the money in the world won't fill it and try as he might Benny can't contain the deflationary beast.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 19:00 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

I get really bored with this.

So, rising energy prices is allegedly down to an OPEC supply squeeze. Rising food prices is because of short supply. Rising equity prices is because of an "improving" economy. Rising precious metal prices is speculation. And I forget which one is rising because of "political instability". 5 different explanations for essentially the same phenomenon.

Alternatively, they could ALL be explained due to monetary expansion.

But, hey, keep piling up more excuses. I can't wait to hear what's next.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 21:21 | Link to Comment Chappaquiddick
Chappaquiddick's picture

EscapeKey you're on the right path, but there is a bigger broader canvas on which this monetary expansion is taking place - in EW parlance it's one degree higher.

The deflationary argument is based on the collapse of the hyper-bubble (my term) that got expanded by our exploitation of our hydrocarbon inheritance.  As we tip over the energy cliff, which is happening right now, then (and this is my take on the economic glide path - or more accurately economic climb, stall, nose dive path) prices of food and energy are going to explode higher which will cause a systemic collapse.  This could be a one time event or it could be a series of downward steps.  In essence its money versus energy and energy or lack therefore will win.  Therefore I think inflation first then deflation.  That's my assessment. (Look at 2007-present, then repeat) Automatic earth present it slightly differently (and I'm paraphrasing here, please see their excellent site for what they actually say).   They have over arching deflation - associated with the the decrease of energy in the system, manifesting itself as the housing bubble bursting and debt delinquency destroying credit based money, while all these other price surges are speculative.  I can believe that for the metals (except silver) - I don't believe that for oil/energy or for the grains.  Apart from that I think my take is all most the same as theirs.  I think that the deflationary energy boundary concept is correct.  As energy diminishes within the system the bubble will deflate and the economic reaction to the loss of energy in the system will be much more rapid than the loss of energy from the system.  Unless we get a viable and widely available energy source rolled out very quickly we run the risk that the system simply falls apart, even with a trillion barrels of oil still in the ground.

Hubberts Peak can therefore be seen as a joy ride up and a sky dive (without parachute) down on the otherside - we are simply not prepared for that decent. 

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 00:25 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Chappa'

If by 'EW' you mean Elliott Wave then i agree with the (hyper) deflationary scenario. I think their economic insights are spot on, it's just their waves are absolute bollocks (have you ever made money, their Index, Gold and Silver advise last year had a 100% failure rate!).

 

Regards energy shortage do your research. The globe is awash with energy, it's coming out of our bloody ears, seriously! Energy prices i can't explain however outside of awash with speculative - counterfeit - Fed money.  

 

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 04:55 | Link to Comment Chappaquiddick
Chappaquiddick's picture

By EW I did not mean EWI.  And its from the Automatic Earth that the hyper-bubble is detailed, not some fictional wave dancing mysteriously through the eons - (total fucking wankers!) 

Regards energy I am researching this - Peak this, peak that and peak the fuckin' other.  So I am keen to see where you think we are awash with energy and how much longer you see that deluge lasting going forward.

Thanks

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 05:35 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

1. Oil is made by the Earths lower crust (abiotic theory) it's not a fossil fuel. No Dead Dinos or forests on Titan the moon, so why does she have millions of tons of hydrocarbons eh!

2. Global annual oil consumption is 30bn barrels of oil, Saudis unofficial estimates are 1.3Tn (about 100 years global supply). 3.5Tn barrels of easily extractable oil soak the clay in the Orinoco basin in Venezuela, and the Athabasca tar sands in Alberta, Canada. Then there's an estimated 6Tn barrels of oil in the US Oil-Shale. 

3. If you want to know why Americas got oil coming out of its ears but its home production has dropped for 40 years and imports have increased ask your politicians. They've been banning their own US production for 40 years. The fukers strangle every free market and shut down free competition (it's a corruption thing) 

So yes we're looking at over 1,000 years of oil just on the above, we're swimming in the good stuff, but it doesn't do to say so if you're in the biz if know what i mean

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 07:15 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Scarce a single credible scientist pushes the "abiotic oil" theory, and the North Sea and other largely tapped resources do not suddenly spring back to life.

And even IF abiotic theory was true, what sort of evidence do you have of the replenishing factor being sufficient to quell demand?

As for the rest of your post with regards to OOIP figures, ultimately recoverable figures don't equal OOIP, and extraction rate is ultimately what matters.

Furthermore, Orinoco and Athabasca don't classify as "easily extractable", and Orinoco won't even be a considerable factor for years, especially considering none of the (considerable required amount of) base infrastructure currently exist.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 09:07 | Link to Comment Chappaquiddick
Chappaquiddick's picture

@Zero

Sorry Buddy - I thought you were serious.  You're a troll.  Go home.

http://www.elliottwave.com/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finger_(gesture)

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 14:22 | Link to Comment More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

Paleomonetarists have had a sudden rise in popularity in Tunisia. Soon everywhere else.

So a developing nation's economy ran into ground by decades of dictatorship is proof for palemonetarism exactly how?

 

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 14:40 | Link to Comment JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

That's what fiat money does. It runs economies into the ground. The dictatorships blow up first because they are weakest. 

You'll have your "proof" soon enough in the rest of the world.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 14:50 | Link to Comment More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

Okay, do you mean I can fairly bring up Somalia and Afghanistan as shining examples of how libertarianism and paleomonetarism works out in practice? :-)

[Sadly we have no better examples as no developed nation in recent history has tried that particular social experiment yet.]

 

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 15:09 | Link to Comment Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

Yes and we have some shining examples of how wonderful state socialism is too. Let's see body count over 100 million. Now give me the lawless tribal lands any day. Yes some warlords and murder but nothing like you fucking statest can deliver.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 15:22 | Link to Comment More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

Well as far I'm concerned, when it comes to the place to live in I'll pick the fascist Sweden, the socialist Switzerland or the absolutely disgusting state-run France.

You can certainly have Somalia and enjoy the fruits of a libertarian heaven of no government, no taxes (and no infrastructure nor any security, mind you). There's a few gold mines in Somalia as well, so they say.

Good luck! :-)

 

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 17:09 | Link to Comment MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

...

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 15:15 | Link to Comment Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

The thing is, no one can know what the future will bring... if you do not believe there will be hyper (or even significant) inflation, prepare accordingly... if someone does, they will prepare accordingly.  Coming in here and basically calling people stupid because they don't interpret data as you do is annoying and childish. 

Report you data and analysis and leave the ad hominem attacks at the door.

Yes, this is fight club, but it should not be fight club for middle schoolers calling each other names.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 15:28 | Link to Comment More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

No one can know what the weather will be tomorrow or next week.

But there are people who work hard to predict the weather, they are called meteorologists. There are good models and bad models - meteorologists tend to use the ones that work in practice. Astrology can predict the weather as well, but it has an astonishingly bad track record so very few meteorologists use it to explain the weather. Some do - there's always the odd one out.

No one can know what the economy will be next month or next year.

But there are people who work hard to predict the economy, they are called economists. There are good models and bad models - economists tend to use the ones that work in practice. Paleomonetarism can predict the economy as well, but it has an astonishingly bad track record so very few economists use it to explain the economy. Some do - there's always the odd one out.

 

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 16:47 | Link to Comment Eternal Student
Eternal Student's picture

That's not quite correct. Meteorologists and their models are pretty darn good out to 3 days. After 3 days, their accuracy falls to 50%, which means it's just a guess.

Pardon the quibble. Your point about the complexity is still quite valid.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 00:08 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Eternal. "..after 3 days, their accuracy falls to 50%.."

So a coin toss! Before 3 days would a 3 sided coin beat the Meteorologists?


Mon, 01/17/2011 - 12:32 | Link to Comment More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

It really depends on the area and depends on the weather systems in place.

There are geographical areas with stable, long-term weather patterns where predictions can be very accurate up to a week or two. For example consider the D-day long-term forecast that the US/UK had about the Channel and which the germans did not have - it went beyond 3 days and turned out to be accurate. Sometimes you have such weather scenarios - and they did not have today's supercomputers.

Also, even in volatile regions there are weather patterns that are predictable over 3 days.

What matters is how chaotic the current scenario is: is there an unstable equilibrium in some important weather system which could go either way, controlling the outcome in a big way? If yes then it's very hard to predict things beyond that point.

Of course TV viewers always want that next-week long term outlook on the screen, and "right now we dont really know beyond Wednesday" is not taken as an answer :-)

So meteorologists will print those graphs even when they know it's probably no good.

Something similar is happening with economic forecasts as well.

 

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 17:31 | Link to Comment MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

Paleomonetarism can predict the economy as well, but it has an astonishingly bad track record so very few economists use it to explain the economy

Do you think you're up to the task of defining your new play-word that you overheard Paul Krugman utter last month?

Good. We'd appreciate it. 

When you're finished with that, why don't you whip up some analysis on:

Paleomonetarism and its Astonishlying Bad Track Record

With your remarkable insight and just a few charts you could be fucking famous RSN. 

OOOOOH.  One more thing.  Be sure to add lots of quotes from all the Paleomonetarism Zealots and Extremists throughout history.  Damn!  This shit will practically write itself.

If *anybody* tries to call bullshit on your new play-word, you can just get a quote from Krugman who will surely say:

I used that term — it’s probably not original, but who knows?

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 20:47 | Link to Comment More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

Well, monetarists first need to explain why, contrary to their predictions, Japan did not experience hyperinflation but instead experienced the exact opposite: deflation.

I mean, when it comes to the credibility of a scientific theory it does not get any worse than getting your predictions exactly the other way around from how the real world played out. It does not bode well for making economic decisions based on such a theory, such as the direction of trades, etc.

It's a big FAIL of monetarism and it repeated with 2008 and the monetarist prediction of hyperinflation in the US as well. The monetary base increased in size, drastically, still, against the basic monetarist axiom there was no hyperinflation - in fact there was disinflation and the US was on the verge of outright deflation.

An explanation for all that would be nice, preferably one that does not involve a worldwide anti-monetarist conspiracy, black helicopters and the like.

 

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 21:23 | Link to Comment dlmaniac
dlmaniac's picture

Japan didn't have hyperinflation (yet) b/c they have had a strong industrial output behind their currency to offer certain strength but as debt keeps growing the outcome is written on the wall: default or hyperinflation.

Giving US' industrial output being almost non-existent (certainly not enough to offset that 70% consumerism economy at least) you can bet US will not have a cushion of two decades Japan had.

Then again keep sticking your head in the sand if it works for you to believe Ben can magically defy the law of economics.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 09:19 | Link to Comment More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

But you are now thinking outside the monetarist box.

Monetarist dogma stipulates that an inflated monetary base is coupled to prices directly. That is why it's called "monetarism": money is the main parameter and markets adjust to the money supply quickly and efficiently - the efficient market hypothesis and other monetarist assumptions.

That was the main idea behind the Friedman "the central bank is all we need to control the economy" money supply side concept - which looked nice and simple 30 years ago and which the political right picked up quickly, because it gave them the excuse to resist those types of government spending that they did not like.

Reality is that as Japan has shown it that the money supply is not everything, that there are other, very strong factors that play a role in macro trajectory of a country.

If you have to bring in "strong industrial output" and other keynesian concepts such as sticky prices/wages or psychological/human factors then it's not monetarism anymore.

But thinking logically is not a strong aspect of the right :-)

default or hyperinflation.

Oh, Japan's policy makers (including the central bank) truly strive for some amount of inflation - but price expectations got embedded and it's very hard to escape those kinds of deflationary forces once they got settled in.

 

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 03:33 | Link to Comment scaleindependent
scaleindependent's picture

More Critical T: Last week you were criticizing ZH because they were overly negative on the 270K employment ADP print, even though they told you that it was mostly BS. Then a couple of days later we hear that the economy LOST over 700,000 jobs.

How do you respond to that since it seems ZH had it right and you had it way wrong?

I am starting to wonder on your secret agenda here. Please be open because you are starting to sound like Harry Wanger's alter ego.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 12:16 | Link to Comment More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

Not sure where you got the -700K from, the ADP data was +297K, while the NFP data two days after that was +103K:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Note that there was an upwards revision of past data:

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised
from +172,000 to +210,000, and the change for November was revised
from +39,000 to +71,000.

While the popular ZH meme is that revisions are only done to reduce overly optimistic government numbers.

Note that the NFP data was indeed weaker than expected.

So my criticism of ZH is still valid: bearish news is being hyped just like CBS is hyping bullish news. That aspect of ZH is not particularly helpful to anyone who is interested in the truth.

 

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 13:08 | Link to Comment Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

Lay man answer to your question. When all world around US experiences price inflation for energy (not only energy but oil derevatives), food and materials how it's possible that US producing corn, armaments and junk movies can escape it? Everybody will deliver their products at loss to US?

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 13:34 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Feeling confused? Don't worry, Ben will make it all right as rain. See he's satisfying both sides of your brain by creating inflation and deflation simultaneously to give you the illusion that he has a steady hand on the tiller and we're cruising in the right direction. The numbers cancel, so everything seems fine! Read this: 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/246814-on-unemployment-inflation-and-flawed-fed-logic?source=feed

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 13:53 | Link to Comment 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

"The expectation is the manipulation; therefore the opposite of the expectation will be the hindsight realization."

66Sexy, 2011.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 14:26 | Link to Comment terranstyler
terranstyler's picture

Be patient.

Japan has its pension funds forced to buy their debt.

This delays the ultimate outcome predicted by paleomonetary theory.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 14:50 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Deflation is not the opposite of hyperinflation, any more than getting shot (someing entering your body) is the opposite of bleeding (something leaving your body).  One causes the other.

But hey, feel free to trust your government, which has never lied, never stolen, and belongs to a class of organizations that has never collapsed from monetary excess.  Christ, just because things have been getting continuously worse for two years, but it hasn't exploded yet doesn't mean that it won't.  Once again, more critical thinking needed.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 16:02 | Link to Comment DoctoRx
DoctoRx's picture

Tmosley

You are being too kind to limit the "things getting continuously worse" statement to only 2 years.

 Housing stocks peaked mid-2005.  That followed immed after a senior spokesperson from the Comptroller of the Currency coming on CNBC to say that there was some imprudent mortgage lending going on.  The Ponzi began unravelling from that point onward.  Naturally more time was needed to such the sheeple into stocks at yet higher prices.  So 3-6 years is my range.  And of course the average stock per the Value Line averages peaked in gold terms in or around 1998 when the Asian contagion raged.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 12:15 | Link to Comment 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

Capital borrowed @ low interest rates creates more money: but only if that money buys war, government entitlement programs, nonproductivity, consumables... specifically, non assets.

Capital borrowed to buy stocks (like the fed is allegedly doing) is not inflationary; as money used to purchase hard assets is in fact deflationary; because such act is speculatory, and insures a spike and retraction based economic model.

Is inflation psychological? Could this sentiment of expected inflation be in fact a stealth government propaganda program to create hyperinflation, and cheapen debt? This kind of confidence means the dollar will not disappear; consider that the FED has more power than ever now, it has direct regulatory control over the dollar and even consumer credit; why would it ever give that up for a riskier global currency ambition?

Methinks the dam will hold.

Once the FED controls the debt (they already are the #1 debt holder), who is the creditor? the US taxpayer? isnt the us taxpayer now paralyzed, powerless, stupified, and incompetent>? what threat is the us taxpayer to the fed? nil.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 13:53 | Link to Comment chubbar
chubbar's picture

"Capital borrowed @ low interest rates creates more money: but only if that money buys war, government entitlement programs, nonproductivity, consumables... specifically, non assets."

What do you think the gov't is buying with the 1.4 trillion/yr in deficit financing (and increasing every year)? Gov't sells bonds, the PD's buy the bonds, the PD's sell the bonds to the fed for a profit, the gov't spends the money into the economy via increased gov't jobs, entitlement programs, war, etc. The FED owns the bonds and interest from the gov't to the FED is paid with more gov't bond sales. A complete circle jerk.

The FED owns the debt and the U.S. taxpayer can never repay this debt even with 100% tax rates unless most, if not all, entitlement programs are completely dismantled in addition to a good chunk of other gov't programs/jobs. Which by the way would completely decimate gov't revenue and require even greater spending cuts. You see any chance of this happening politically prior to a gov't collapse? Are you of the opinion a gov't collapse strengthens the FED and the U.S. dollar?

"Capital borrowed to buy stocks (like the fed is allegedly doing) is not inflationary; as money used to purchase hard assets is in fact deflationary; because such act is speculatory, and insures a spike and retraction based economic model."

The FED doesn't "borrow" anything. If it is buying stocks it is doing so with money it created out of thin air. If the gov't is buying stocks it is doing so with money printed out of thin air but exchanged for gov't bonds. The new money, regardless whether of gov't or FED origin, is now being given to the previous owners of said stock. The previous owner now has money to spend into the economy or on other stocks, thus supporting the economy or stock market. This is not deflationary regardless of whether spikes and retracements happen to the stock price if we are assuming it's the gov't/FED doing the buying.  The  new stock owner (either gov't or FED) will just buy more stocks, if they fall, to support the price with newly created money. If that is in fact their mandate, which I'm not sure is the case.

Inflation EXPECTATIONS are psychological. Actual inflation will affect prices regardless of what the population would like to believe. Expectations are manipulated with a variety of methods. I don't personally think the FED is wanting expectations to spike but that is just an opinion.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 14:59 | Link to Comment 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

imo

Today, "inflation" is a manufactured psychological expectation, reinforced by corporations to justify a rise in prices, while simultaneously reducing wages by encouraging unemployment and eliminating or renegotiating entrenched employee entitlements..

The net result? record corporate profits and a government dependent consumer. This is all part of the process of making corporate private debts into public liabilities, through government regulatory capture. Think Argentina: and it will happen eventually here. However, last i checked, Argentina still exists.

Welcome to the corporate dictatorship.

Hyperinflation, i dont think anyone can dispute, is a psychological loss of faith in a nations currency, resulting in massive demand for goods over demand for future savings.

This is indeed happening when states or countries must create their own currencies and trade them to sustain entitlements and programs (massive money creation), all happening while the public heightens awareness and responds by hoarding currency to spend it immediately.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 15:13 | Link to Comment Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

+10

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 11:21 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Incredible piece of news. Very well spotted.

No surprise it fell on a Sunday though. Shows the command and all.

They know what they are doing.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 11:30 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

If you want to see something the news missed this week:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qu18lMrFvoc

Soros crapping all over the dollar in a 10 minute monologue that would make any supervillain jealous.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 12:37 | Link to Comment 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

Soros/.... the same guy who said gold was in a huge bubble but at the same time was BUYING gold heavily?

If Soros is crapping on the dollar, id play dollar up.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 13:28 | Link to Comment BigJim
BigJim's picture

Soros described gold as the 'ultimate' bubble.

As he's a non-native speaker he was probably using the word 'ultimate' as it should be used - as a synonym for 'final'.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 16:18 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Correct.   Soros is misquoted often on this.  I'd not discount one of the smartest guys around when it comes to these matters.  He ain't Bill Clinton.  When he means "IS", he'll say, "IS"!

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 17:09 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

Agreed,you do not call anything the ULTIMATE BUBBLE, and then buy into it hand over fist.He and Paulson dumped over 250 million into NG @ approx $4.00.

Its not at $4.00 now.

 

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 11:28 | Link to Comment put_peter
put_peter's picture

Is this the black swan??? Major hits to be taken by bancstas...

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 11:28 | Link to Comment Bubbles...bubbl...
Bubbles...bubbles everywhere's picture

And thus Q3 begins.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 12:41 | Link to Comment 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

yeah, I can see the headlines now:

'DOW futures up on global financial collapse and armageddon rumors'

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 14:06 | Link to Comment Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

+1 red horseman

+3 very large bowls of wrath

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 11:37 | Link to Comment cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

"The Irish Independent learnt last night that the Central Bank of Ireland is financing €51bn of an emergency loan programme by printing its own money."

Then why does Ireland even need ECB money?

ICB can print euros huh?  That's like the California Central Bank printing dollars ...if there was a CCB.

The euro doesn't have much time left. It's all falling apart.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 11:41 | Link to Comment put_peter
put_peter's picture

So much for the Irish euros... sad thing is that they are not good even as a toilet paper as there are much better alternatives for that ;)

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 11:52 | Link to Comment 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

just the news we need for a dollar rally

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 13:30 | Link to Comment stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

they don't "print it up", they just create an account, put a number in it and send out a check to their bondholders.  i believe the same thing is happening here, you don't see spikes in prices because the money is not being lended. it is being sent out to that top percent of income earners in our country.  thats is why the retail reports of the super expensive "elite" stores are up, that little group of people have money to spend.

 

everyone else is taking the hit, but it is very slow.  workers and "entitlement recipients" are receiving the same amounts, but what they can purchase with it cost more.  food cost more, we read articles on this site periodically about how retailers are putting less product in the same packages and prices are creeping up. i will leave "energy" out of the equation because it is so manipulated, but it is creeping up as well.

 

it puzzles me that greece did not do the same. maybe they did and still have the same results. or maybe this is the "answer" so many of us have been searching for in the ecu equation. they cannot bail out all of the countries, maybe now they just give them "permission" to create a certain amount of currency.  it would seem to me that the same group of people will suffer as the top 10% will benefit.  as long as they do it slowly it will buy them time, just as it has here.

 

all of this is just my opinion

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 11:39 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

Where's the little boy to stick his finger in the dike when you need him?...why here is now ;-)

"A source at the ECB said the European bank is comfortable that the amounts involved are small enough not to be systemically significant."

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 12:31 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

He drowned. Obama will be holding a press conference and candlelit vigil tonight on the white house lawn.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 14:41 | Link to Comment JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

++

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 17:51 | Link to Comment MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

There will be a themed commerative T-Shirt waiting for you on your chair at the vigil.

The T-Shirt will also be sopping wet.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 12:51 | Link to Comment Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

Of course this begs the question whether other or all EU members have printing presses that they can dust off and fire up.

Also, did Ireland do this without permission? That ECB source's comment "not systemically significant" sounds like whistling past the graveyard.

Maybe other sources will come forward and ask the other distressed EU members to please not print their own Euros.

Laughing at these bumbling bureaucrats.

 

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 11:40 | Link to Comment thepigman
thepigman's picture

Let's see. The bank runs continue

up til the election in March since the

voters already know they're going to

repudiate the debt. Bondholders get an

80% haircut. What am I missing?

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 22:30 | Link to Comment Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

You're going to miss one hell of a party when the election results are announced.

You'll also be missing one hell of a hangover resulting from said party.

Of course, we'll be having our own hangover here sometime later, minus the party.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 11:42 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

After Bernanke successfully reflated the economy and directly caused one of the greatest stock market rallies of all time........

And smash gold stocks over and over again to prove that "there is no inflation"..

Virtually every other government will try to replicate that strategy to goose stocks and use naked shorts to sell gold ETF's and gold stocks.

I mean really, what is to stop these guys?

Food riots in third world countries?

Nope.

I was at the new Bloomingdales's in Santa Monica yesterday, and the store was packed.  It is a small boutique store, stocked with only the highest priced items.  I then had to go to the Westfield Mall in Century City, and again, teeming with shoppers who could care less about what is happening in Tunesia.

All I see is ebullience and consumers spending wildly.  The job market is finally improving here.

Of course, I helps that we have had perfect weather the last 5 days, 75 degrees, dry and sunny.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 11:52 | Link to Comment cossack55
cossack55's picture

If you were to show any of the lemmings you saw spending their EUC checks yesterday a map of Tunisia with the name scratched out, how many of them do you think could identify Tunisia on the map?

PS...If you need any help in encouraging Ca. to seceed, don't hestitate to ask. 

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 12:35 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

It appears we have found a way to defeat newton's third law. All is well in candyland!

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 12:57 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Hehe. Never sure whether you've started drinking the Kool Aid that you dispense ;-)

Everything is always fine with stocks until the day, the moment when the Pig Men that you mention decide it's time to sell. Then you wake up one morning and find out an individual stock like CoinStar is down 25%. That happens every month with stocks in small cap land. Or you come back from lunch and find out the entire market dropped 1,000 DOW points (remember?)

After decades of my own active stock investing I can say it's not what you make, it's what you keep. One of my all-time best trades was pulling my entire 401K out of stocks and into cash in November 2007. And I'm comparing that with big kills from the 1995-2000 era. 

Yes, stock markets always crash, eventually and inevitably. And mini-crashes happen quite frequently but the Pig Men try to make you forget. It's all how you've positioned yourself. If you're reckless at the wrong moment you will lose most of your capital. And it's never clear until after that moment has arrived. Also, remember that when you make money you're eating a Pig Man's lunch. 

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 23:56 | Link to Comment cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

You may have a point there.  The Fed / Wall Street cabal are known for pump & dump ops, like the '01 - '07 housing pump & dump.  Maybe equities are the current pump & dump. We're in the pump phase now obviously.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 14:10 | Link to Comment Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

I was at F Street bookstore yesterday and it was packed as well.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 14:42 | Link to Comment JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

See Robot, Junk Robot. No read Robot.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 14:58 | Link to Comment ZEITGEIST
ZEITGEIST's picture

just shows what an asswipe you are..I live in Los Angeles and am in the retail business..and own my own stores. FOR OVER 20 YEARS..VERY VERY HIGH END.....everyone talks about how empty that new project on 3rd Street in SM is ......just proves that when you move your lips..shit comes out..I talk to all the the high end boutique owners all over the city. have known them all for years....they all tell me the same thing..business sucks..and they cant see how the government says sales are up..Robo ASSHOLE ..YOU ARE ONE PIECE OF WORK..

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 15:14 | Link to Comment Hulk
Hulk's picture

and there it is...the truth, that is...

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 16:18 | Link to Comment DoctoRx
DoctoRx's picture

My contacts in Santa Barbara tell me business continues to show no pickup from a quite depressed level.  And no improvement in Miami either from the look of the malls.  Huge and growing business in dispensing addictive prescription drugs, though.

More to the point, Gallup's daily poll of consumers shows absolutely no pickup in daily discretionary spending c/w a year and 2 years ago; still way down from 3 years ago (not shown on site).  And no pickup in hiring/firing question.  

Saw a Bloomberg headline yesterday exulting that rising oil prices is a good thing because it indicates the battle over deflation is being won.  What kind of jerks do they think read Bloomberg News?

So, IMHO Robo's observation means that stock market and other winners in Beverly Hills etc are spending freely while the overall economy continues in a modern-day Long Depression.  Plus shoppers with cash are preferring to get consumer goods before they rise in price.  I agree with them.  This is indeed the early stages of a hyperinflationary mindset.  

However . . .

I also conclude that with consumer spending so low per Gallup and other studies, hyperinflation is not imminent.  I suspect that since the headlines show and project economic strength, watch out for reality to disappoint.  Perhaps now that everyone knows cash is trash, it's a good thing to hoard for tactical redeployment or to indeed spend on tangible things you will need in good times or bad. 

 

 

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 17:08 | Link to Comment JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

 ZEITGEIST - +++

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 18:00 | Link to Comment MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

San Franciso; North Beach / Fisherman's Wharf; yesterday

Gorgeous, perfect weather -- a Saturday, noonish...

EMPTY!!!

Easy street parking in both neighborhoods...Barely any pedestrian traffic.  You'd think there was a quarantine or something.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 15:44 | Link to Comment Montgomery Burns
Montgomery Burns's picture

The mall was crowded one day. A sure sign all is well. LOL

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 15:45 | Link to Comment Montgomery Burns
Montgomery Burns's picture

*

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 11:47 | Link to Comment belogical
belogical's picture

Those crazy Webbot guys said to watch the Irish

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 11:47 | Link to Comment Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

Any bets on what will happen in March? IMO, it seems certain that the new Irish government will reject the ECB deal made by the old government. Why would the Irish people accept years and years of unsupportable debt payments just to keep (mainly foreign) bond holders from taking a (huge) haircut? Better to simply default, reinstate a deeply devalued Irish punt, and start over.

Ireland: change just one letter, and you have Iceland.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 11:54 | Link to Comment cossack55
cossack55's picture

Easy answer.  The Irish have long been known for their animosity towards people with short hair, especially high&tights.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 12:21 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Yes everyone knows that the emu better give ireland a sweet deal otherwise the punt returns. Then the risk of contagion as other angry pigs rush the trough. Finding it empty they devour the farmer. It has happened before.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 11:59 | Link to Comment put_peter
put_peter's picture

I think you are right. It is very probable that Ireland will default. Then probably there is a liquidity crunch that lasts upto 10ms (ECB, IMF, FED coordination delay) during which time HFT systems take dow to 5000 sp and to 300. After this 10 ms period indices will recover to 50% level of from where they started the crashing. JMHO.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 12:52 | Link to Comment M.B. Drapier
M.B. Drapier's picture

It's not clear what will happen. Fine Gael (which will probably be the largest party in the next government) is saying that it will haircut senior bank debt not under government guarantee. The junior partner would be the Labour Party, which will probably be no less keen on bank haircuts. We'll see what happens when they're in office though. Neither party is exactly a profile in political courage, and once they're in their first priority is likely to be keeping the show on the road as much as possible. Neither really wants to slash spending - Labour is especially fond of the public sector's bloated pay and pensions - so the EU and IMF can exert a lot of leverage by threatening to cut off the bailout money. Lorenzo Bini-Smaghi of the ECB was threatening us recently. Ireland's domestic banking interests still have lots of political clout too. (The Irish Times is in their pocket. Note that Ruairi "Straight Left" Quinn is the brother of Lochlann "AIB" Quinn: small country.) It's likely that events (or EU actions - the banking lobby seems to think that they have Eurobonds in the bag) will set the pace, rather than Irish politicians.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 13:02 | Link to Comment Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

Even smaller than I realized: following your links, I see that Lochlan is 1st cousin to the wonderfully-named Feargal Quinn, and that Mary McAleese awarded Lochlan the Ulysses Medal not so long ago. Reminds me of the line from the Aeolus chapter, "The father of scare journalism and brother-in-law of Chris Callinan..."

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 22:38 | Link to Comment Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

Ireland: just rearrange all the letters and you have rand lie.

This of course proves beyond all doubts that Ireland is a nation of anti-Libertarians.

I rest my case.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 11:48 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

note to deflationists:  the math doesn't matter.  The CBs won't let that get in the way.

They HAVE to print to prevent mathematic collapse of the banking system.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 12:54 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

They do.  I agree.

But I think it borders on delusion for people to ignore rents.  Rents, what you pay for housing, are NOT GOING UP.  I have checked more than my own locale.  They are not rising nationwide.  

And rent (housing) IS the largest constituent part of monthly budget.

Not only is it wrong to ignore it, it's wrong to think about inflation without making rent the most important item in the thinking.

Last but not least, if QE is really, truly driving increased costs of living, why are rents immune?  Dollar dilution should be present in ALL areas of personal budget, but the most important one is immune.  

This is weird.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 13:39 | Link to Comment stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

rents are not going up because the money being created and borrowed from the ecu is not being lended to the middle class and poor, and is being paid to the bondholders, the small group of bondholders that get the proceeds spend it on vacations, and expensive items, not rent.  therefore rents are not going up. 

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 14:13 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

If rents aren't going up, it's real hard to make a case for explosive cost of living increases.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 17:12 | Link to Comment JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

If food and energy prices rise the case is made. 

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 19:30 | Link to Comment ArmchairRevolut...
ArmchairRevolutionary's picture

Thus, the case is made.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 14:42 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Spending on aquiring mining corporartions (Carlos Slim), GLD (Einhorn), Rice (Rogers), and real gold (Soros).

The rich think they have their ducks in a row and they are ready to walk out on the 'party'.  Georgie even said it, 'Someone spiked the punch bowl.'  He also does not drink (he told you), so what does that tell you?  Sujmmers?  Gone.  Orzog?  Gone.  Romer?  Gone.  Emanuel?  Gone.  The old problems were solved.  The new problems will not be anyone's fault.  Daly will handle them, and no one will be blamed.  Does the next phase start now?  Well the real question is, how much more gold does Bernanke have to loan to get prices significantly lower?  Answer, if Bernanke is going to keep gold lower than $1500 he must lease his whole 8,000 tonne stash during the rest of his tenure.  No way this happens.  Before then a country will ask for delivery.  The Fed will say 'No.'  Then there will be blood.  It all has to do with gold, and gold has to do with oil.  Oil production has almost peaked (maybe it has).  This ends very soon, Fort Knox audited or not.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 16:23 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Don't forget the silver canary in the JPM / Chinese mine.  If the Chinese really do have a stranglehold on the silver market through a JPM proxy, then silver will possibly be the first to break.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 16:29 | Link to Comment bingaling
bingaling's picture

Wait until interest rates increase it will cause a rise in rent or more foreclosures . Truly there is a superfluous amount of vacant property . How can rent go up if there is an oversupply ? Kinda like the BDI .

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 17:10 | Link to Comment JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

They HAVE to print to prevent mathematic collapse of the banking system.

They HAVE to print to DELAY mathematic collapse of the banking system.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 18:15 | Link to Comment MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

I think Ralph Phillips should play the part of The Bernank when the movie comes out.  You can see the Battle Against Mathematics at around 1:20 in the video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ENxnrine-Jc

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 19:19 | Link to Comment Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

Note to Trav7777:

That's just garbage.  The market is stronger/bigger than the Fed.

The Fed can temporarily jerk it around with varying degrees of success, but the market ultimately gets what it wants.

You routinely say the laws of mathematics dictate that the system must inflate to sustain itself, and I agree with that. But that doesn't mean it will.  In the past two years, the bouncing ball has gained a massive amount of kinetic energy. There will be a point where it drops back to Earth and snaps your spine, regardless of whatever tune Bernanke and the Ink Jets are singing. 

 

 

 

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 20:14 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture
by Red Neck Repugnicant
on Sun, 01/16/2011 - 18:19
#880500

 

Note to Trav7777:

That's just garbage.  The market is stronger/bigger than the Fed.

The Fed can temporarily jerk it around with varying degrees of success, but the market ultimately gets what it wants.

You routinely say the laws of mathematics dictate that the system must inflate to sustain itself, and I agree with that. But that doesn't mean it will.  In the past two years, the bouncing ball has gained a massive amount of kinetic energy. There will be a point where it drops back to Earth and snaps your spine, regardless of whatever tune Bernanke and the Ink Jets are singing. 

**********************************************************************************

 

did you just say gravity, effects money... in the markets?

http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/pomo/display/index.cfm?showmore=1&opertype=orig

 

Inclusions: CUSIP ID Security Description Par Amt
Accepted ($) 912828MH0 T 02.250 01/31/15 0 912828DM9 T 04.000 02/15/15 106,000,000 912810DP0 T 11.250 02/15/15 22,000,000 912828MR8 T 02.375 02/28/15 181,000,000 912828MW7 T 02.500 03/31/15 1,000,000 912828MZ0 T 02.500 04/30/15 869,000,000 912828DV9 T 04.125 05/15/15 3,000,000 912828NL0 T 01.875 06/30/15 2,592,000,000 912828NP1 T 01.750 07/31/15 314,000,000 912828EE6 T 04.250 08/15/15 0 912810DS4 T 10.625 08/15/15 1,000,000 912828NV8 T 01.250 08/31/15 637,000,000 912828NZ9 T 01.250 09/30/15 154,000,000 912828PE4 T 01.250 10/31/15 52,000,000 912828EN6 T 04.500 11/15/15 0 912810DT2 T 09.875 11/15/15 0 912828PJ3 T 01.375 11/30/15 1,000,000 912828PM6 T 02.125 12/31/15 2,090,000,000 912828EW6 T 04.500 02/15/16 0 912810DV7 T 09.250 02/15/16 0 912828KS8 T 02.625 02/29/16 185,000,000 912828KT6 T 02.375 03/31/16 1,000,000 912828KR0 T 02.625 04/30/16 0 912828FF2 T 05.125 05/15/16 96,000,000 912810DW5 T 07.250 05/15/16 0 912828KW9 T 03.250 05/31/16 0 912828KZ2 T 03.250 06/30/16 1,000,000   Exclusions: CUSIP ID Security Description   912828NF3 T 02.125 05/31/15     Operation 2 - RESULTS Operation Date:   01/13/2011 Operation Type:   Outright Coupon Purchase Release Time:   10:15 AM Close Time:   11:00 AM Settlement Date:   01/14/2011 Maturity/Call Date Range:   07/31/2016 - 12/31/2017 Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) : $8,412   Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) : $20,995     Inclusions: CUSIP ID Security Description Par Amt
Accepted ($) 912828LD0 T 03.250 07/31/16 3,000,000 912828FQ8 T 04.875 08/15/16 0 912828LL2 T 03.000 08/31/16 168,000,000 912828LP3 T 03.000 09/30/16 93,000,000 912828LU2 T 03.125 10/31/16 337,000,000 912828FY1 T 04.625 11/15/16 3,000,000 912810DX3 T 07.500 11/15/16 101,000,000 912828MA5 T 02.750 11/30/16 377,000,000 912828MD9 T 03.250 12/31/16 115,000,000 912828MK3 T 03.125 01/31/17 184,000,000 912828GH7 T 04.625 02/15/17 12,000,000 912828MS6 T 03.000 02/28/17 559,000,000 912828MV9 T 03.250 03/31/17 167,000,000 912828NA4 T 03.125 04/30/17 416,000,000 912828GS3 T 04.500 05/15/17 236,000,000 912810DY1 T 08.750 05/15/17 165,000,000 912828NG1 T 02.750 05/31/17 51,000,000 912828NK2 T 02.500 06/30/17 26,000,000 912828NR7 T 02.375 07/31/17 51,000,000 912828HA1 T 04.750 08/15/17 239,000,000 912810DZ8 T 08.875 08/15/17 101,000,000 912828NW6 T 01.875 08/31/17 0 912828PA2 T 01.875 09/30/17 267,000,000 912828PF1 T 01.875 10/31/17 98,000,000 912828PK0 T 02.250 11/30/17 852,000,000 912828PN4 T 02.750 12/31/17 3,791,000,000   Exclusions: CUSIP ID Security Description   912828HH6 T 04.250 11/15/17     Operation 3 - RESULTS Operation Date:   01/11/2011 Operation Type:   Outright Coupon Purchase Release Time:   10:15 AM Close Time:   11:00 AM Settlement Date:   01/12/2011 Maturity/Call Date Range:   07/31/2016 - 12/31/2017 Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) : $7,802   Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) : $21,104     Inclusions: CUSIP ID Security Description Par Amt
Accepted ($) 912828LD0 T 03.250 07/31/16 29,000,000 912828FQ8 T 04.875 08/15/16 0 912828LL2 T 03.000 08/31/16 259,000,000 912828LP3 T 03.000 09/30/16 105,000,000 912828LU2 T 03.125 10/31/16 42,000,000 912828FY1 T 04.625 11/15/16 0 912810DX3 T 07.500 11/15/16 1,000,000 912828MA5 T 02.750 11/30/16 80,000,000 912828MD9 T 03.250 12/31/16 407,000,000 912828MK3 T 03.125 01/31/17 2,000,000 912828GH7 T 04.625 02/15/17 0 912828MS6 T 03.000 02/28/17 667,000,000 912828MV9 T 03.250 03/31/17 528,000,000 912828NA4 T 03.125 04/30/17 638,000,000 912828GS3 T 04.500 05/15/17 804,000,000 912810DY1 T 08.750 05/15/17 102,000,000 912828NG1 T 02.750 05/31/17 962,000,000 912828NK2 T 02.500 06/30/17 1,369,000,000 912828NR7 T 02.375 07/31/17 780,000,000 912828HA1 T 04.750 08/15/17 151,000,000 912810DZ8 T 08.875 08/15/17 1,000,000 912828NW6 T 01.875 08/31/17 11,000,000 912828PA2 T 01.875 09/30/17 1,000,000 912828PF1 T 01.875 10/31/17 0 912828PK0 T 02.250 11/30/17 1,000,000 912828PN4 T 02.750 12/31/17 862,000,000   Exclusions: CUSIP ID Security Description   912828HH6 T 04.250 11/15/17     Operation 4 - RESULTS Operation Date:   01/10/2011 Operation Type:   Outright Coupon Purchase Release Time:   10:20 AM Close Time:   11:00 AM Settlement Date:   01/11/2011 Maturity/Call Date Range:   02/15/2018 - 11/15/2020 Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) : $7,790   Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) : $19,501     Inclusions: CUSIP ID Security Description Par Amt
Accepted ($) 912828HR4 T 03.500 02/15/18 780,000,000 912828HZ6 T 03.875 05/15/18 326,000,000 912810EA2 T 09.125 05/15/18 1,000,000 912828JH4 T 04.000 08/15/18 261,000,000 912828JR2 T 03.750 11/15/18 656,000,000 912810EB0 T 09.000 11/15/18 76,000,000 912828KD1 T 02.750 02/15/19 455,000,000 912810EC8 T 08.875 02/15/19 78,000,000 912828KQ2 T 03.125 05/15/19 766,000,000 912828LJ7 T 03.625 08/15/19 1,403,000,000 912810ED6 T 08.125 08/15/19 87,000,000 912828LY4 T 03.375 11/15/19 2,241,000,000 912828MP2 T 03.625 02/15/20 0 912810EE4 T 08.500 02/15/20 47,000,000 912828ND8 T 03.500 05/15/20 0 912810EF1 T 08.750 05/15/20 188,000,000 912828NT3 T 02.625 08/15/20 0 912810EG9 T 08.750 08/15/20 425,000,000 912828PC8 T 02.625 11/15/20 0   Operation 5 - RESULTS Operation Date:   01/07/2011 Operation Type:   Outright Coupon Purchase Release Time:   10:15 AM Close Time:   11:00 AM Settlement Date:   01/10/2011 Maturity/Call Date Range:   07/15/2013 - 12/31/2014 Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) : $7,199   Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) : $24,168     Inclusions: CUSIP ID Security Description Par Amt
Accepted ($) 912828NN6 T 01.000 07/15/13 953,000,000 912828JG6 T 03.375 07/31/13 0 912828NU0 T 00.750 08/15/13 290,000,000 912828BH2 T 04.250 08/15/13 0 912828JK7 T 03.125 08/31/13 0 912828NY2 T 00.750 09/15/13 151,000,000 912828JM3 T 03.125 09/30/13 0 912828PB0 T 00.500 10/15/13 2,024,000,000 912828JQ4 T 02.750 10/31/13 0 912828PU8 T 00.500 11/15/13 3,358,000,000 912828BR0 T 04.250 11/15/13 0 912828JT8 T 02.000 11/30/13 175,000,000 912828JZ4 T 01.750 01/31/14 2,000,000 912828CA6 T 04.000 02/15/14 0 912828KF6 T 01.875 02/28/14 1,000,000 912828KJ8 T 01.750 03/31/14 0 912828KN9 T 01.875 04/30/14 0 912828CJ7 T 04.750 05/15/14 2,000,000 912828KV1 T 02.250 05/31/14 0 912828KY5 T 02.625 06/30/14 3,000,000 912828LC2 T 02.625 07/31/14 36,000,000 912828CT5 T 04.250 08/15/14 3,000,000 912828LK4 T 02.375 08/31/14 197,000,000 912828LQ1 T 02.375 09/30/14 1,000,000 912828LS7 T 02.375 10/31/14 2,000,000 912828DC1 T 04.250 11/15/14 0 912828LZ1 T 02.125 11/30/14 1,000,000 912828ME7 T 02.625 12/31/14 0   Exclusions: CUSIP ID Security Description   912828PL8 T 00.750 12/15/13   912828JW1 T 01.500 12/31/13     Operation 6 - RESULTS Operation Date:   01/06/2011 Operation Type:   Outright Coupon Purchase Release Time:   10:15 AM Close Time:   11:00 AM Settlement Date:   01/07/2011 Maturity/Call Date Range:   01/31/2015 - 06/30/2016 Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) : $6,780   Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) : $18,564     Inclusions: CUSIP ID Security Description Par Amt
Accepted ($) 912828MH0 T 02.250 01/31/15 0 912828DM9 T 04.000 02/15/15 97,000,000 912810DP0 T 11.250 02/15/15 61,000,000 912828MR8 T 02.375 02/28/15 100,000,000 912828MW7 T 02.500 03/31/15 0 912828MZ0 T 02.500 04/30/15 40,000,000 912828DV9 T 04.125 05/15/15 91,000,000 912828NL0 T 01.875 06/30/15 1,492,000,000 912828NP1 T 01.750 07/31/15 121,000,000 912828EE6 T 04.250 08/15/15 0 912810DS4 T 10.625 08/15/15 100,000,000 912828NV8 T 01.250 08/31/15 29,000,000 912828NZ9 T 01.250 09/30/15 0 912828PE4 T 01.250 10/31/15 151,000,000 912828EN6 T 04.500 11/15/15 0 912810DT2 T 09.875 11/15/15 0 912828PJ3 T 01.375 11/30/15 0 912828PM6 T 02.125 12/31/15 3,530,000,000 912828EW6 T 04.500 02/15/16 162,000,000 912810DV7 T 09.250 02/15/16 0 912828KS8 T 02.625 02/29/16 373,000,000 912828KT6 T 02.375 03/31/16 141,000,000 912828KR0 T 02.625 04/30/16 65,000,000 912828FF2 T 05.125 05/15/16 214,000,000 912810DW5 T 07.250 05/15/16 11,000,000 912828KW9 T 03.250 05/31/16 2,000,000 912828KZ2 T 03.250 06/30/16 0   Exclusions: CUSIP ID Security Description   912828NF3 T 02.125 05/31/15     Operation 7 - RESULTS Operation Date:   01/05/2011 Operation Type:   Outright Coupon Purchase Release Time:   10:15 AM Close Time:   11:00 AM Settlement Date:   01/06/2011 Maturity/Call Date Range:   08/15/2028 - 11/15/2040 Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) : $1,500   Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) : $9,360     Inclusions: CUSIP ID Security Description Par Amt
Accepted ($) 912810FE3 T 05.500 08/15/28 8,000,000 912810FF0 T 05.250 11/15/28 8,000,000 912810FG8 T 05.250 02/15/29 8,000,000 912810FJ2 T 06.125 08/15/29 39,000,000 912810FM5 T 06.250 05/15/30 177,000,000 912810FP8 T 05.375 02/15/31 42,000,000 912810FT0 T 04.500 02/15/36 14,000,000 912810PT9 T 04.750 02/15/37 29,000,000 912810PW2 T 04.375 02/15/38 8,000,000 912810PX0 T 04.500 05/15/38 58,000,000 912810QA9 T 03.500 02/15/39 197,000,000 912810QB7 T 04.250 05/15/39 132,000,000 912810QC5 T 04.500 08/15/39 284,000,000 912810QD3 T 04.375 11/15/39 100,000,000 912810QE1 T 04.625 02/15/40 103,000,000 912810QH4 T 04.375 05/15/40 150,000,000 912810QK7 T 03.875 08/15/40 130,000,000 912810QL5 T 04.250 11/15/40 13,000,000   Exclusions: CUSIP ID Security Description   912810PU6 T 05.000 05/15/37     Operation 8 - RESULTS Operation Date:   01/04/2011 Operation Type:   Outright TIPS Purchase Release Time:   10:15 AM Close Time:   11:00 AM Settlement Date:   01/05/2011 Maturity/Call Date Range:   07/15/2012 - 02/15/2040 Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) : $1,618   Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) : $5,168     Inclusions: CUSIP ID Security Description Par Amt
Accepted ($) 912828AF7 TII 03.000 07/15/12 1,000,000 912828HW3 TII 00.625 04/15/13 0 912828BD1 TII 01.875 07/15/13 0 912828BW9 TII 02.000 01/15/14 0 912828KM1 TII 01.250 04/15/14 0 912828CP3 TII 02.000 07/15/14 0 912828DH0 TII 01.625 01/15/15 0 912828MY3 TII 00.500 04/15/15 0 912828EA4 TII 01.875 07/15/15 0 912828ET3 TII 02.000 01/15/16 10,000,000 912828FL9 TII 02.500 07/15/16 0 912828GD6 TII 02.375 01/15/17 0 912828GX2 TII 02.625 07/15/17 0 912828HN3 TII 01.625 01/15/18 0 912828JE1 TII 01.375 07/15/18 0 912828JX9 TII 02.125 01/15/19 0 912828LA6 TII 01.875 07/15/19 0 912828MF4 TII 01.375 01/15/20 0 912828NM8 TII 01.250 07/15/20 787,000,000 912810FR4 TII 02.375 01/15/25 161,000,000 912810FS2 TII 02.000 01/15/26 0 912810PS1 TII 02.375 01/15/27 22,000,000 912810PV4 TII 01.750 01/15/28 0 912810FD5 TII 03.625 04/15/28 57,000,000 912810PZ5 TII 02.500 01/15/29 0 912810FH6 TII 03.875 04/15/29 68,000,000 912810FQ6 TII 03.375 04/15/32 0 912810QF8 TII 02.125 02/15/40 512,000,000   Operation 9 - RESULTS Operation Date:   01/03/2011 Operation Type:   Outright Coupon Purchase Release Time:   10:15 AM Close Time:   11:00 AM Settlement Date:   01/04/2011 Maturity/Call Date Range:   02/15/2018 - 08/15/2020 Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) : $7,790   Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) : $17,004     Inclusions: CUSIP ID Security Description Par Amt
Accepted ($) 912828HR4 T 03.500 02/15/18 740,000,000 912828HZ6 T 03.875 05/15/18 870,000,000 912810EA2 T 09.125 05/15/18 202,000,000 912828JH4 T 04.000 08/15/18 554,000,000 912828JR2 T 03.750 11/15/18 1,284,000,000 912810EB0 T 09.000 11/15/18 50,000,000 912828KD1 T 02.750 02/15/19 291,000,000 912810EC8 T 08.875 02/15/19 102,000,000 912828KQ2 T 03.125 05/15/19 926,000,000 912828LJ7 T 03.625 08/15/19 1,129,000,000 912810ED6 T 08.125 08/15/19 265,000,000 912828LY4 T 03.375 11/15/19 777,000,000 912828MP2 T 03.625 02/15/20 0 912810EE4 T 08.500 02/15/20 58,000,000 912828ND8 T 03.500 05/15/20 0 912810EF1 T 08.750 05/15/20 189,000,000 912828NT3 T 02.625 08/15/20 0 912810EG9 T 08.750 08/15/20 353,000,000   Exclusions: CUSIP ID Security Description   912828PC8 T 02.625 11/15/20     Operation 10 - RESULTS Operation Date:   12/29/2010 Operation Type:   Outright Coupon Purchase Release Time:   10:15 AM Close Time:   11:00 AM Settlement Date:   12/30/2010 Maturity/Call Date Range:   06/30/2012 - 06/15/2013 Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) : $5,387   Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) : $21,802     Inclusions: CUSIP ID Security Description Par Amt
Accepted ($) 912828NS5 T 00.625 06/30/12 0 912828GW4 T 04.875 06/30/12 9,000,000 912828LB4 T 01.500 07/15/12 0 912828NQ9 T 00.625 07/31/12 2,000,000 912828GZ7 T 04.625 07/31/12 0 912828LH1 T 01.750 08/15/12 8,000,000 912828AJ9 T 04.375 08/15/12 0 912828PH7 T 00.375 08/31/12 0 912828HC7 T 04.125 08/31/12 1,000,000 912828LM0 T 01.375 09/15/12 2,000,000 912828NX4 T 00.375 09/30/12 0 912828HE3 T 04.250 09/30/12 0 912828LR9 T 01.375 10/15/12 341,000,000 912828PD6 T 00.375 10/31/12 52,000,000 912828HG8 T 03.875 10/31/12 0 912828LX6 T 01.375 11/15/12 161,000,000 912828AP5 T 04.000 11/15/12 0 912828PV6 T 00.500 11/30/12 2,441,000,000 912828HK9 T 03.375 11/30/12 0 912828MB3 T 01.125 12/15/12 153,000,000 912828MG2 T 01.375 01/15/13 127,000,000 912828HQ6 T 02.875 01/31/13 0 912828MN7 T 01.375 02/15/13 300,000,000 912828AU4 T 03.875 02/15/13 0 912828HT0 T 02.750 02/28/13 0 912828MT4 T 01.375 03/15/13 261,000,000 912828HV5 T 02.500 03/31/13 0 912828MX5 T 01.750 04/15/13 279,000,000 912828HY9 T 03.125 04/30/13 0 912828NC0 T 01.375 05/15/13 537,000,000 912828BA7 T 03.625 05/15/13 0 912828JB7 T 03.500 05/31/13 0 912828NH9 T 01.125 06/15/13 713,000,000   Exclusions: CUSIP ID Security Description   912828HM5 T 03.625 12/31/12

 

If you want to quote the law of averages, My Miami Dolphins are winning the super bowl this year... Oops, they are out already.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 22:44 | Link to Comment Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

In the past two years, the bouncing ball has gained a massive amount of kinetic energy. There will be a point where it drops back to Earth and snaps your spine, regardless of whatever tune Bernanke and the Ink Jets are singing.

This is precisely why I have invented the "Bungie Snuggie." It's an adult diaper with an ultra-strong elastic extruded from the waistband.

You simply attach the free end to a large supply of precious metals, huge ammo cache or a larder full of canned food.

When properly worn, not only will you sleep like the proverbial baby. But when the big drop happens, since you're already in a diaper, you're ready for just about anything.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 00:27 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Dr. Sandi... I also wear an adult diaper... you are not alone.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 11:53 | Link to Comment GoldmanSux
GoldmanSux's picture

Good God! I didn't know each government in the EU could print money?? If they can, they will.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 14:14 | Link to Comment Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

I didnt know that they could either. I was always lead to believe one of the fundamental risks of being a euozone member was not having control over your money.

Why do bond auctions matter if you just can print the money out of thin air anyway?

At minimum this should make euro holders run for the door and tank the currency.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 14:43 | Link to Comment JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Make that a hat trick. My Gawd....

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 15:18 | Link to Comment It is a bargin ...
It is a bargin my friend's picture

Male that a quadablollocks, if true then we have no euro crisis, just another US

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 16:09 | Link to Comment Eternal Student
Eternal Student's picture

+1. That is the key question, isn't it?

So, what's the EU going to do in response? Kick Ireland out? Then Ireland defaults on their Bonds. The only other way to enforce currency control is with a gun. If the English couldn't control Ireland by force, I don't think it will be very profitable for the EU, either.

Ireland is in the drivers seat here, not the EU, inspite of their propaganda to the contrary.

It also looks to me like the EU is now starting to crumble, as soon as Countries start printing their own currency.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 04:05 | Link to Comment scaleindependent
scaleindependent's picture

Where is the German, traditional anti-inflationary response to this?

Methinks they really don't mind a little bit of printing as long as their banks get bailed out and as long as their currency is devalued in favor of their exports.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 00:18 | Link to Comment Eternal Student
Eternal Student's picture

I agree. But a "little bit of printing" is like being a little bit pregnant. It never stops and only grows. At which point, each Country is back to having its own currency.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 12:00 | Link to Comment bingaling
bingaling's picture

The real question is " Are Portugal, Italy ,Greece , and Spain doing this ? If so why? How much ? and if not, why not ?"

Another "Why is Germany and France allowing Ireland to debase their Currency?" (side note ICB prints Euros right?) .

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 11:57 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Aahhh. The people are awakening. The bankers will eventually be rounded up...first iceland next ireland. I assume that anyone prominent in banking knows St. vincent now. Personal security details will lower their profit margins. The smart ones know the next one is going to strike without warning. Spray you crazies spray! We will tut tut.....but secretly enjoy.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 14:59 | Link to Comment lesterbegood
lesterbegood's picture

It is prudent to assume that the NWO has planned for people awakening to the crimes being committed against them in this engineered takedown of the united States. Even the lowliest conman knows that given enough time the mark eventually becomes wise to the scam.

When the NWO pulls the trigger to crash whats left of the economy, the people will rebel. Obama will crawl to the U.N. to beg for troops to quell the rebellion, as most of the US troops are overseas fighting useless war or guarding equally useless bases (over 1100 bases).

The UN will reluctantly agree with glee, and surprise!, activate prepositioned troops and equipment stationed on stateside bases vacated by American troops when they were shipped overseas. Ever hear of a Trojan Horse?

But what about all those pesky freedom-loving armed Americans? Surely they will not allow the UN to invade their land and occupy it?

Remember those chemtrail planes? The ones that have been spraying us for the past 10 years, keeping the populace sick and drugged and compliant. How difficult would it be to change the payload to something more lethal?

It is long past time to stop complaining and act!

Join those people who are acting before it is too late!

http://republicoftheunitedstates.org

I estimate we have less than 4 weeks before the NWO pulls the trigger.

Good luck!

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 11:58 | Link to Comment bugs_
bugs_'s picture

An Irish slippery slope - to be copied by the others.  Surely Greece could also print in amounts small enough - ditto Portugal.  They will all do it.   KING DOLLAR.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 12:04 | Link to Comment Bubbles...bubbl...
Bubbles...bubbles everywhere's picture

50 billion here, 50 billion there, 100 billion in Spain...what are a few billion among friends?

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 13:28 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

While we are talking worthless currencies I wanted to say I have started my own.  I am using old playboys, and I am ripping out the pages and putting numbers on them with a sharpie.  They are worth face value.  Just fold them up and put them in your pocket!  Tah dah!  I will sell them for gold or if you have a bond that comes due.  The bonds are Sports Illustrated pages with numbers I wrote on them.  My operation is highly skilled, no doubt.  Watch out Fed, the US is not big enough for the both of us.

PS, I still have my gold fund.  Sne the dollars to me and I will send stock certificates back. 

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 14:21 | Link to Comment Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

You're going to have a real difficult time competing with my newly formed currency Senor Hendrix. I'm just down the street with pre-owned marital aids and used sex toys, each with their own barcode, magnetic strip, and RFID. I even have a a facsimile of an enforcement agency to insure their use; my system puts the real Internal into the meaning of IRS.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 16:26 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

I'd like to do that as well, but the pages are all stuck together.  Does that lower or increase the value?

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 17:38 | Link to Comment Hulk
Hulk's picture

Definitely lower...

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 18:34 | Link to Comment MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

but the pages are all stuck together. Does that lower or increase the value?

From a certain viewpoint this makes *your* Playboys behave more like Mortgage Backed Securities.  The original pages are bound together in a way that makes them impossible to recognize or unravel.

Whether that makes them more or less valuable depends on how you book it.  I recommend the Mark-to-WTF approach.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 16:53 | Link to Comment Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

I guess this is beginning of the end of the euro.

All the other eurozone countries have debt problems too that a printing press could solve for a few days or weeks.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 12:00 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Note how Iceland has had no adverse impact on the stock markets whatsoever.

Neither have:

- Volcano eruptions

- Record snowstorms

- H1N1 flu and "Bird Flu"

- Massive flooding in Australia

You really have to follow the tape, and ignore the news.

For example, I'll be watching these for a possible breakout or failure:

France:

England:

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 12:18 | Link to Comment bingaling
bingaling's picture

You are somewhat right Robo all news is now reflected in FX . The US ramp job is has a global effect .

After note . I dontand didnt junk you Robo you have been around here forever and you have been right on many things .(not that you care )

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 12:40 | Link to Comment thepigman
thepigman's picture

What robo never sez is that the none

of the crap he is buying has any fundamentals

supporting it, and that if reality someday

intrudes, the exit door will shrink down to

a tiny fraction of its current size. But

all you guys defending the tape are

big boys. Lots of luck.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 17:14 | Link to Comment JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

See Robot, Junk Robot. Never read Robot.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 12:13 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I hope you are right robo. An inglorious peace is better. Long live the rising tape! Disclosure....painfully long.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 13:32 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

You had me thinking, do you think Ben and Timmah dressed up for Halloween as He-Man and ran around pretending they were the Masters of the Universe?

Seriously Robo, it is all a fragment of your reality.  Why would you ever let all of these brain dead sheeple make you think that this way of life is not going to change.  Everything is static.....

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 15:06 | Link to Comment ZEITGEIST
ZEITGEIST's picture

ahahahahaahahahahaha..wait till the dollars wash ashore back here..you think people will hold your putrid bonds once they start to collapse..man are you a shill..or just an idiot ?????  And ya..Bernanke has sure held gold down..DJI 11,700 IN 2000..AND DJI 11,700 IN 2011...GOLD 250 IN 2000..AND GOLD 1360 IN 2011..ON ITS WAY TO 2000 THIS YEAR...lets hope every asshole like you ends up living in a refrigerator box in some alley....it is people like you who do not give a damn if others die by this governments illegal acts..as long as you make a buck..man you sicken me and anyone who wants to see honest markets and the rule of law..

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 15:29 | Link to Comment Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

+10

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 12:01 | Link to Comment Poundsand
Poundsand's picture

The chart shows the drop in deposits starting in '09.  The Irish economy is in a tailspin, jobs are fleeing, and the people are pulling their savings to live.  Revolution is afoot, all over the world the banks are bleeding people dry, driving up government spending, passing the debt to people who are stuck in quicksand and sinking.  The demarcation line between the haves and have nots is growing more and more stark. 

And the bankers answers are always the same. Borrow more of our money, trust us. 

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 12:08 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

Other assets chart matches the SPX

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 13:03 | Link to Comment Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

So you noticed that too. The R-squared looks to be at least 0.85

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 13:19 | Link to Comment Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

deleted, duplicate.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 13:19 | Link to Comment Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

deleted, duplicate.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 12:10 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

With all due respect to the great Bard....i believe he urged the demise of the wrong profession!

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 12:11 | Link to Comment kaiten
kaiten's picture

They´re just filling the gaps. €40 billion is huge for a healthy economy, but it´s nothing after a spectacular housing/credit bubble collapse. Just preventing an outright deflation.  

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 12:14 | Link to Comment ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Is there a difference between Ireland printing money and counterfeiters doing so in the basement?

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 12:29 | Link to Comment Horatio Beanblower
Horatio Beanblower's picture

...there are gangsters and then there are gangsters.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 12:36 | Link to Comment CH1
CH1's picture

Umm... which group of thugs is declared righteous or unrighteous?

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 15:11 | Link to Comment cxl9
cxl9's picture

Per the article, the Irish counterfeiting operation satisfied three apparent requirements to be acceptable: (1) the counterfeiters deem it "appropriate"; (2) they inform the ECB of their printing; and (3) the amount is "small enough not to be systemically significant". Using these criteria, I would infer that virtually anyone can legally start printing up their own Euros. Who wants to go next?

 

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 12:25 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Other bank stocks I'm watching:

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 13:20 | Link to Comment M.B. Drapier
M.B. Drapier's picture

I think it's fair to say that IRE and AIB have disappointed, though.

 

by RobotTrader 
on Tue, 12/07/2010 - 10:18
#785453

 

IRE and AIB both up 22% Crisis is over.

 

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 12:30 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Larry Pesavento and David White talking to themselves on Tom O'Brien's show about being short and wrong...

Larry says that last week's crash in gold and cotton is a precursor to a massive downleg in risk assets.

Now they say the Full Moon on Tuesday is going to crash the markets.

Every week, they come up with another "astrological excuse" as to why the market is going to crash.

http://www.tigeruniversity.com/mp3/TOS011411.mp3

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 14:26 | Link to Comment stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

yes,yes we all know you play the tape, go long and make a fortune.  but it seems as time goes by you are just a "cheerleader for yourself",  hooray me.

 

hahahahahahahhhahhah.

 

i have no respect for you anymore because you attack anyone's theories that have a bearish slant, but never provide any "reasonable" theories about why.  some people on this site are not sold on pm's, or daytrade phenomenon, but are trying to form an educated and logical hypothesis as to how to keep what we have worked hard for, and profit from our time spent determining what that will be.

 

good luck with the decisions you have made, or publish that you make,  it would be interesting to read your theories as to how this will go long term.  but don't fight the tape is something that some of us learned 20 years ago and to keep repeating it ad infinitum lends no more to that end than a parrot repeating an irritating and comical phrase.

Sun, 01/16/2011 - 12:34 | Link to Comment johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Coming here soon. The U.S. is not exactly the paragon of financial stability....

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