Adjusted Mortgage Applications Stabilize In Last Two Weeks, Plunge On Unadjusted Basis

The Mortgage Banker's Association has released its Weekly Mortgage Applications
Survey for the weeks ending December 24, 2010 and December 31, 2010. On a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending December 24, 2010, the Market Composite
Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from the prior
week. For the week ending December 31, 2010, this index increased 2.3%. The kicker is when on looks at the unadjusted numbers which exclude Christmas and New Year's Day adjustments: "on an unadjusted basis, the Index
decreased 23.7 percent the week before Christmas and 10.0 percent
the week after." Hopefully the seasonal adjustment isn't accounting for more than the snowfall across the country. Considering the ongoing spike in mortgage rates, it would not surprise us if this unadjusted data point next week will confirm that any interest in refinancing mortgages at current (still very low) rates has gone the way of the dodo. But at least the Fed thinks that higher interest rates are an indication that lower interest rates are working, or some such tortured FOMC logic.

Balance of the release:

For the week ending December 24, 2010, the Refinance Index decreased 7.2 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 3.1 percent from one week earlier. The following week, the Refinance Index increased 3.9 percent and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.8 percent.  The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 18.1 percent the week before Christmas and decreased 12.2 percent the week following. This measure was 12.1 percent higher and 6.1 percent lower, respectively, than the same period a year ago.

The refinance share of mortgage activity for the week ending December 31, 2010 was 71.0 percent, an increase from 70.3 percent for the week ending December 24, 2010.

For the week ending December 24, 2010, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 4.93 percent from 4.84 percent, with points decreasing to 0.63 from 0.96 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) loans. For the week ending December 31, 2010, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.82 percent with points increasing to 1.11.

For the week ending December 24, 2010, the average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages remained unchanged at 4.22 percent, with points increasing to 1.34 from 1.19 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. For the week ending December 31, 2010, the average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 4.23 percent with points decreasing to 1.00.

Comments

[Rockfish]

Besides the average interest rate on 30yr fixed and 80%ltv 30yr what was the average loan amount. Would this number not be a tell?