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ADP Comes At 187K On Expectations Of 140K, Previous Revised 50K Lower

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The completely worthless and thoroughly discredited ADP number came in at 187,000 (who can forget last month's 297K which got the Barclays experts to predict a 600K NFP number for January) on expectations of 140K. Of course, the ridiculous print from last month was cut by 50K, just as this one will be in March. Someone should inform ADP (which doesn't count government jobs) that there was snow in January and thus the NFP will come in well below expectations (ref: eternal bad number apologist Joe LaVorgna).

From ADP:

Private-sector employment increased by 187,000 from December to January on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report® released today. The estimated change of employment from November to December was revised down by 50,000 to 247,000 from the previously reported increase of 297,000.

This month’s ADP National Employment Report suggests solid growth of private nonfarm payroll employment heading into the New Year. The recent pattern of rising employment gains since the middle of last year appears to be intact, as the average gain over December and January (217,000) is well above the average gain over the prior six months (52,000). Strength was evident within all major industries and across all size business tracked in the ADP Report.

According to the ADP Report, employment in the service-providing sector rose by 166,000 in January, marking twelve consecutive months of employment gains. Employment in the goods-producing sector rose 21,000, the third consecutive monthly gain. Manufacturing employment rose 19,000, also the third consecutive monthly gain.

Employment among large businesses, defined as those with 500 or more workers, increased by 11,000 while employment among medium-size businesses, defined as those with between 50 and 499 workers, increased by 79,000. Employment among small-size businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, increased by 97,000.

 

 


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Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:29 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Priced in already.

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock futures wobbled after the ADP National Employment Report had private payrolls rising 187,000 in January. "The specifics of the report aside, the general story of an improving economy, growing profits and increasing employment is bolstered further by today's report," said Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average were off 3 points at 11,970. Those for the S&P 500 were off 1.4 points at 1,301.3, while Nasdaq 100 futures fell 3.25 points to 2,319.25.


Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:44 | Link to Comment financeguru500
financeguru500's picture

I think what ADP meant to say is that they measured Chinese employment this time around so that they could put up some better numbers than usual. Not sure what this means for me but hey, I'm glad 187,000 chinese factory workers are gainfully employed.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:01 | Link to Comment Ray1968
Ray1968's picture

Ummm, it was the snow. Yeah, that's it... it was the snow!!!

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:10 | Link to Comment greengoogol
greengoogol's picture

The clowns on Squawk just laid the groundwork for that a second ago . . .

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:24 | Link to Comment Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

"Our formula predicts, er,...one sec..."

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:25 | Link to Comment The Axe
The Axe's picture

Big Joe, is going to throw out his snow knowledge, dickhead

 

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:26 | Link to Comment Alcoholic Nativ...
Alcoholic Native American's picture

RALLY TIME!

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:28 | Link to Comment RunningMan
RunningMan's picture

Trickle down economics of the worst kind. Money going to wall street bankers who are expected to spend and create hiring, but they are just buying commodities. No employment gain, and inflation to boot. Survival of the elite, and they hope the masses stand still long enough for them to get away. The last four months have been a disaster, so no wonder they want QEn.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:42 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

That is the way I see it too.  Money flows into the blackhole of Wall Street and is never again seen by the economy until people pay for their groceries.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:28 | Link to Comment FOC 1183
FOC 1183's picture

Hopefully Barclays will analyze "initial release" ADP vs. "initial release" BLS instead of "revised" vs. "revised" this time

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:29 | Link to Comment FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

The lies and manipulations are obvious to any free-thinking human being.

Are there any free-thinking human beings in the U.S? or has the propoganda, aspartame and fluoride completely destroyed the thought processes of the avergage U.S. citizen?

The U.S. and other western world countries are going down big time. This is an end game, no way back from this.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:33 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

It's all designed to be extended for as long as possible, stripping the middle classes of what wealth they might have.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:56 | Link to Comment thetruth
thetruth's picture

how long though?  3 months?  3 years?  3 decades?

 

Imagine if it did take 30 years and we wasted our time getting frustrated for that long waiting for it to happen.  I know there are people here who have already been waiting that long.  Maybe they can comment.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:39 | Link to Comment snowball777
snowball777's picture

I don't drink diet, so no aspartame. And I believe you dropped this tooth.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:29 | Link to Comment TraderMark
TraderMark's picture

BTFD!

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:46 | Link to Comment JP McManus
JP McManus's picture

I might as well hire Jim Cramer as my financial advisor.  There's no downside risk!  BUY BUY BUY!!!

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:52 | Link to Comment plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

I like him. Hes silly

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:40 | Link to Comment snowball777
snowball777's picture

Big Time Fucking Depression!

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 15:20 | Link to Comment andybev01
andybev01's picture

Before The Fun Dies

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:35 | Link to Comment WineSorbet
WineSorbet's picture

I'm having Vu Jade

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:42 | Link to Comment whatz that smell
whatz that smell's picture

e-minis red... must be the snow.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:47 | Link to Comment The Axe
The Axe's picture

I have to agree with the posters that simply say "buy the dip" it has not only worked every fucking time, it has yielded large trading profits. Nothing and I mean nothing other then the Fed turning off the firehose of free money will reverse this melt up market. Think about it the economy is sick, housing blows, banks still have scary balance sheets. yet the market is back to levels seen before the crash.....fucking amazing

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:54 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

A daily, growing expectation of inflation would yield exactly what we see in the equities and commodities markets.

In the Weimar Republic, people couldn't understand prices going up every day, but at the same time, they saw their investments consistently rise in tandem.

All history such as this has been stripped from books, to ensure the peasants don't work out what's really happening around them before the exit is closed.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 11:48 | Link to Comment plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

look its simple. Even a Cave man can do it.. ADP formula...Numerator+6/4%-<876>-APPL stock price+877/denominator*8533%+x2(3)= Rally time

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:50 | Link to Comment thepigman
thepigman's picture

Let's say ADP is right and 160,000
service sector jobs were created.
These are so well paying (sarcasm on)
that these workers will likely immediatley qualify for food stamps.
Think bedpan emptiers and mini-mart
clerks.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:54 | Link to Comment thepigman
thepigman's picture

Go to Doug Short's site and check
out disposable income per capita....
it's going in the wrong direction
which means between the jobless and
the underjobbed, we got big problems
(assuming this is still a consumer
based economy). Course, we can deny that too. You know, like the housing
double dip doesn't matter, etc etc.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:56 | Link to Comment Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Any news that threatens the legitimacy of QE3 is seen as bad news by the market.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:04 | Link to Comment tickhound
tickhound's picture

hence why insolvency is bullish

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:58 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Message from your Wall Street Overlords: 

We added a few jobs for you lazy, greedy morons. So put a smile on your face and shut up. Now if you'll excuse us we got big important things to take of that you wouldn't understand: handling money and skimming a profit. Oh and pay your taxes so the fun can continue!

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:01 | Link to Comment thepigman
thepigman's picture

The stock market is now a mechanism

for offsetting lack of loan growth by

the TBTFs. The fed has so decreed.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:12 | Link to Comment thepigman
thepigman's picture

TBTFs pushing on a string. Formerly

free range brontosauruses now confined

to 100 acres of economic pasture.

Minsky decade. The bernank gives them

a daily feed.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:13 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

You got it. I been saying for a while, market was the mechanism for recapitalizing the big corporations with huge debt to roll when capital markets were frozen stiff. All those secondary offerings and junk bonds (which hit all time record issuance in 09 and 10) had to be bought up. That's what put "all that cash in the balance sheets". 

That's still on, but on top of that the market is keeping the TBTF financials alive by lifting bank tangible equity, and by keeping Wall Street business alive through commissions, trading, and traditional ibanking. 

If the market was left to itself it would go back into a vicious cycle of declining prices and declining business

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:20 | Link to Comment thepigman
thepigman's picture

Yup, yup. exactly.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:22 | Link to Comment thepigman
thepigman's picture

The emperor has no clothes.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:09 | Link to Comment oh_bama
oh_bama's picture

needless to say it everyday

 

---BTFD!!

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:16 | Link to Comment thepigman
thepigman's picture

I ain't buyin nuthin from no TBTF brontosaurus

in failing health. The herd must be

right-sized.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 11:15 | Link to Comment Stuart
Stuart's picture

I know it's been said already, but worth repeating every few seconds.... ADP = Who gives a damn!, really!...who cares?   Monkeys throwing darts at a board could do better. 

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 11:23 | Link to Comment Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

On the brighter side, think of all the jobs that have been created in the last couple of months, shoveling walks and driveways.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 15:51 | Link to Comment Robert Oak
Robert Oak's picture

Over on The Economic Populist, I just graphed up a host of differences between the ADP and BLS private payrolls.

You are right, it's diverging and the graphs help show why.

http://www.economicpopulist.org/content/adp-employment-report-january-20...

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