This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
ADP December Payrolls Up 297,000 On Expectations Of 100,000
ADP, whose November better than expected data of 92,000 jobs diverged dramatically with the weaker than expected NFP report (which just happened to come at a time when political ammo was required to pass the Unemployment Insurance extension, and which we predicted would surge in December), has just come at 297,000, on expectations of 100,000. How this number is even remotely possible is beyond any reasonable attempt at reconciling NFP data with initial claims. Then again, this is the loudest telegraphing that the dollar should be far, far higher.
From ADP:
Private-sector employment increased by 297,000 from November to December on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report® released today. The estimated change of employment from October to November was revised down but only slightly, from the previously reported increase of 93,000 to an increase of 92,000.
This month’s ADP National Employment Report suggests nonfarm private employment grew very strongly in December, at a pace well above what is usually associated with a declining unemployment rate. After a mid-year pause, employment seems to have accelerated as indicated by September’s employment gain of 29,000, October’s gain of 79,000, November’s gain of 92,000 and December’s gain of 297,000. Strength was also evident within all major industries and every size business tracked in the ADP Report.
According to the ADP Report, employment in the service-providing sector rose by 270,000 in December, the eleventh consecutive monthly gain and the largest monthly increase in the history of the report. Employment in the goods-producing sector rose 27,000, the second consecutive monthly gain and the largest since February 2006. Manufacturing employment rose 23,000, also the second consecutive monthly gain.
Employment among large businesses, defined as those with 500 or more workers, increased by 36,000 while employment among medium-size businesses, defined as those with between 50 and 499 workers, increased by 144,000. Employment among small-size businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, increased by 117,000.*
Construction employment was unchanged in December, ending continuous monthly declines since June 2007. The decline in Construction employment, since its peak in January 2007, is 2,306,000. Employment in the financial services sector declined 8,000 in December.
As a reminder, Friday's NFP consensus is for 140,000 jobs, and our prediction is that this number will be blown away now that economic data no longer serves a policy function for the time being.
Indicatively, the divergence between the NFP and ADP numbers can be seen on the chart below
And as John Lohman points out there is really no observable correlation whatsoever between ADP and NFP surprises:
h/t Andrew Yorks
»
- 8755 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
So Dow 12k this week. Everything is all better right?
This is good news, so BAD for QE.
Dow 10,XXX next week..
LOL! So there's a huge, +297k jump in employment (+197k over expectations) and ZH did not see any reason to qualify this number???
Lets check the facts and compare this to past ZH headlines about ADP drops:
How about a -23k drop instead of +40k increase (a -63k miss):
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/disappointing-adp-comes-23k-consensus-w...
That was reported by ZH as "disappointing".
How about a +39k increas on +150k expecations (a -111k miss):
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/payrolls-huge-miss-39k-compared-consens...
That was reported by ZH as "huge miss".
But a +197k surprise jump gets no qualifier at all. Right, if the news is good we better be objective and report the dry facts, move on guys - if the news is bad, it's all VERY bad, right? :-)
If you needed any further proof that ZH editorializing is irrationally sell-side biased you need not search any longer ...
Here are a few headlines that would fairly match past negative headlines that ZH emitted:
"Huge +197k jump in ADP numbers smashes records"
"ZH apologizes and retracts hundreds of articles bashing Bernanke and admits that QE2 may be stimulative after all. Our condolences to all the S&P perma-shorts and gold longs we misled."
Right?
Point me to article doing exactly this on Marketwatch (or any other MSM site), and you might have an argument. Until then, perhaps you could explain why the bearish news has to be held to a higher standard of accountancy than the perma bullish sites?
Or is it just your own bias shining through?
Ugh, so your "answer" to fake, untrustworthy perma-bullish sites is to create a fake, untrustworthy perma-bearish site? Brilliant!
How about a perma-honest site instead, one which reports and opines on negative and positive news fairly. How about reporting the truth fairly, for a change? How about holding yourself to a higher ethical standard than the crappy perma-bullish sites?
The thing is, objectively negative news are in the majority currently. There's no need to artificially 'help' the bearish side so much as ZH does it, IMO the honest truth is bearish enough, even without any manipulation.
No, my answer is dealing with reality. I have seen no indication over your annoyance with Marketwatch over their blatantly dishonest articles, yet you find reason to complain when this high standard is broken by ZH.
"The thing is, objectively negative news are in the majority currently."
In the MSM? Outright lie.
Erm, why do you bring up the straw man argument of Marketwatch being crappy too? I think everyone here agrees that the goal of Zero Hedge should not be to out-shill Marketwatch ... :-)
This is a Zero Hedge forum and I am pointing out Zero Hedge dishonesty when I see it, and I am asking Zero Hedge to hold itself to a higher standard.
(I do not read Marketwatch. If they were useful enough for me to read them I'd be criticising them too. But they are not.)
So guys, please be more appreciative of the truth, instead of trying to out-spin the 'other side'. If you do that you'll be a petty shill too, just like Marketwatch.
And remember, knowing the truth and being honest with yourself is probably one of the most important traits of a good trader. It cannot be over-emphasised.
I know what you say, but I just don't think it's realistic. Every medium carries an inherent bias. Staying aware of this bias is the best you can attempt to do.
A lot of articles on ZH are unnecessarily bearish, but they counter the unrealistic portrayals about the situation so evident on Marketwatch, etc.
Erm, I hate to bring it to you, but reality is that untruth and lies do not get neutralized by untruth and lies.
They get neutralized by truth. That's the sunshine that makes cockroaches squirm - not more manipulation.
Just apply that concept to trading. Imagine that you are in a position and that you were wrong about a trend and the position is a loser so far.
Is the right answer to flip the position in the opposite direction to 'counter' your own previous, false notion of reality, or is the most profitable answer to try to find the truth and act accordingly? (After which the right answer may be to flip the position, or to hold it, or to close it.)
So, given you know that ZH is biased, and given that you seemingly hold biased media (or at least, only when the bias is bearish) in contempt, why are you here again?
Let me know when you find this 100% unbiased website.
Good points all Escapekey. i used to live in the Bay Area and used to listed to KPFA, the local "alternative" station (www.kpfa.org).
Sure they sounded shrill on some issues, but they were countering such a tsunami of popular culture that it seemed fine to be like that. It made them so much more honest.
Notice it is very hard to lie when you are screaming.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/01/05/stairwell-sigtar/
As I stated it before, I hold any intentional bias in contempt, bullish and bearish alike. (You are right that avoiding all bias is not realistic - but you at least have to try.)
Because ZH is typically on the bearish side (except when it comes to Gold and other metals/commodities) that inevitably means that I'm criticising the bearish bias.
That may indeed give you the incorrect impression that I'm only criticising the bearish side of ZH.
Btw., now that you've reminded me, I've criticised a handful of gold-bullish ZH articles too.
No, what has given me an impression is what you just mentioned. You criticised gold bullish articles.
So, you are 100% contrarian to the established view here at ZH, yet you're still here. Why?
If you are in contempt of biased websites, then you must really hate ZH.
Well, there's a fair proportion of ZH articles that I enjoy and agree with. Also, even biased articles can be original sources of useful information - of which there is plenty here on ZH as well.
Also, I tend to comment on things I disagree with, not cheerlead on topics I agree with.
That's the whole point I personally see in commenting online: I look for contrary opinion that tests the correctness of my opinion the hardest possible way - I seldom look for confirmation. (The only positive confirmation I need are the balances of my trading accounts.)
Also, I enjoy the snarky, british journalistic style of ZH as well (to the heck with PC), plus I respect the fact that I've seen no significant censorship on ZH so far. (I've only seen a single material comment deleted on ZH ever - and that one was IMO deleted for valid, exceptional reasons.)
Plus, despite the flaming and disagreement, there's a surprising number of cases when I see commenters with extreme opinion differences end up agreeing on important points - or at least end up disagreeing on a fair basis.
So there's many good reasons for me to be here on ZH - and I see it useful to comment on things I disagree with - sometimes I'm wrong, sometimes I'm stupid and learn something new.
So my reasons are pretty straightforward and not particularly sophisticated. If you were suspecting some conspiracy I have to disappoint you :-)
well put, MCT.
"As I stated it before, I hold any intentional bias in contempt, bullish and bearish alike. (You are right that avoiding all bias is not realistic - but you at least have to try.)"
You use Krugman to back up your positions. Nuff Said.
Actually, the IMO irrational obsession here against Krugman keeps me baffled all the time.
I challenged commenters here to cite actual proof of Krugman deception or other provable failure in his logic, but that challenge was never met in a valid way.
Krugman might be an opinionated liberal, but he's also an exceptional economist with a very good track record. Also, he's also pretty contrarian when it comes to economics - so it's pretty funny that he is the villain here on ZH :-)
I'm open to discuss any actual hard proof of a specific incident where Krugman was seriously wrong about any economic topic and refused to admit his mistake afterwards.
And, for the record, when I ask for actual proof there's only the cricket chirp ...
Take a browse thru here and see if you find anything.
http://krugman-in-wonderland.blogspot.com/
Please point out a specific instance that you would be willing to defend.
I've seen this and other lists of "Krugman criticism" and none were convincing. So please pick out one specific major issue that you think highlights the problem with Krugman perfectly, and I'm willing to invest energy into checking and arguing that.
The first article your link points to is obviously uninformed and does little to coherently argue against any point Krugman made regarding Europe, let alone prove any wrongdoing on the side of Krugman.
Please make a specific point, instead of calling Krugman names. One issue only, the best example you can offer. "Krugman said X, but X is false, and here why." kind of things - or anything else that is a well-constructed criticism of Krugman which would give basis to the widely held (but never proven) belief here that Krugman is wrong.
If he is wrong so often, you should be able to point out a specific instance with ease, right?
Thanks.
(but I suspect we'll only get the usual cricket chirp.)
chirp chirp, dickweed.
http://mises.org/daily/4946
Well, if you check the numbers you'll see that it's national security (DHS, defense, veteran's affairs) related payroll increase that makes up for the bulk of the government employment increase.
If you look at US security from the 2000 to 2010 you'll realize which events led to that focus :-)
Also, in the 7 years since 2003 there was also a natural increase in the population of the US, which, given that more people need more teachers, more policeman and more firefighters leads to a correlated increase in government employment.
Check out the graph yourself:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?&chart_type=lin...
This graph shows the number of government employees per one thousand US citizens.
The 'look, big government!' line from republicans was a clever lie that was based off the +100K census bulge. Government got a bit smaller in fact, on a population-relative basis.
So no, this is not a valid criticism of Krugman. He was right here too.
I don't know exactly what that chart is showing. Is that only federal government employees, or does it include mandated state and local programs? Full-time, part time, private contractors, grant recipients?
To me, the more important thing to look at is government expenditure versus GDP. Harder to quantify is the economic and social impact of regulations and policies, but that would be an even better measure.
The mounting debt is a signal that our federal government has overextended itself. Krugman is an idiot if he thinks it should go even further.
Yes, it's roughly 2.7 million employees total so the full kit AFAICT.
Looking at a GDP proportional ratio, especially on a short timeframe since 2008 is misleading for obvious reasons: there was a deep recession so GDP took a nosedive, while teachers, policemen, firefighters, etc could not be fired - because US population did not contract - it increased.
If you look at the GDP relative number of the US or of any other country you'll always see 'big' bulges in relative cost of government during recessions - and it recovers after recessions. But that's misleading and republicans made use of that to mislead into a clever 'big government' lie, coupled with the Census misdirection as well.
So if you double check the data yourself you will see that Krugman was right here too.
Btw., if you want to see the definitions and data tables of the data then it's all public. The USGOVT numbers are:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USGOVT
Civilian population:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CNP16OV
The combined graph that creates the ratio between them to see the effective (per thousand people) size of the US government:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?&chart_type=lin...
It's all public data - and yes, if it's quoted selectively it can be used to mislead, and it was used by republicans to mislead.
More Critical T...
Thanks,
I agree with your philosophy that a person or blog should strive for honesty and avoid pumping or slanting opinions. It just makes sense.
Those who criticize, stating that it is impossible to be honest, or that other sites are dishonest have, imo, lost the right to criticize the Bernank, QE, the Banksters, etc.
That being said, there is plenty of reason to be dubious about the ADP numbers. Even old Yahoo is stating that many economists are not buying the numbers. After months of revising, faking and oopsing numbers you would have to agree that there is plenty of rationale for a healthy and honest skepticism. If the ADP wants to be taken seriously, then they have lots of amends to do. Agree?
Well, but what do you make of the 57.1 ISM PMI number that followed the ADP numbers, and which supports the ADP data?
Anyway, only two short days until the official NF numbers so we'll see whether it's an outlier.
(Except, of course, if you make the claim that the public company ADP, the non-profit ISM and the US government are all together in a criminal conspiracy to falsify economic data.)
Objectivity is an impossibility while within the human condition. Every communication you receive is edited in some form or fashion. I'm missing your point. The only issue to be concerned with is when that editing results in misunderstanding and creates an incorrect factual history through either direct commentary or a material omission. My guess is that you will have a hard time finding these criteria on this site. [but probably not for others].
A good level of objectivity is not that hard to achieve, it's called the scientific method.
It did wonders to the human condition, in the past few hundred years, discovering, interpreting and using a complex set laws that nature threw at us. It took quite some time because not only are they complex, they were also unfortunately also not listed in the Bible so they had to be reverse engineered the hard way :-)
But when applied they work in an amazing range of conditions and produce an amazing range of useful tools and other everyday improvements. They are also objectively testable to a dozen decimal places or so.
Absolute objectivity is not possible to achieve, but that does not mean we should not try to do a better job.
care to address its application to this website?
If you don't like it, then stop fucking coming here.
Right, brilliant concept, so if you don't like the policies of the US then don't bother pointing out their stupidity when you see them, but stop fucking living there? :-)
Erm, wait ...
erm, are you retarded?
Not that I know of, although if I were retarded I would not be able to tell, right?
You don't live here. You weren't born here. You aren't paid by ZH, nor do you pay them.
It's more analogous to a Canadian coming across the border and complaining about the state of the US. They can and should just stay home.
But seriously, you are nitpicking.
Uh, tmos, 'Foreign Policy' ring any bells?
'Cuz it kinda sounds like you're saying that if you notice it you can't call it unless it's yours. Which doesn't make for much of an analogy, IMHO.
Not to be nitpicky about your persnicketiness.
There could be several reasons "he" is here, none of them remotely connected to "his" stated purpose of shining the light of truth in the eyes of ZH and its readers. "He" appeared here 15 weeks ago, interestingly at the exact moment the market began its most recent 4 month QE X.X fueled rise.
taraxias,
It is your attitude why I left the Yahoo message boards long time ago.
Are you American?
If not, maybe you should model for the stereotypical "Ugly American". If you are, then make sure to get payed for it.
Reading assignment:
Dying of Money: Lessons of the Great German and American Inflations
Jens O. Parsson
You are overweighing these numbers, that will probably be revised later.
Anyway, Government data = meaningless propaganda, when originated from an entity with well over 50 trillion in obligations and a 14 trillion deficit. Similar to a drug addict asking a drug dealer for a loan to buy drugs because he says he "has a job now"...
There would be a boost from the holidays, which will be leveled out, and when feb '11 rolls around, we'll be looking at disappointing employment numbers that were (purposely) based on dramatically revised upwards expectations, and of course a wall street rally on QE.
Nice rant about government propaganda, but FYI ADP is a public company (ticker: ADP) that does independent data acquisition to try to track and double check the government data - and does it a few days before the official government employment statistics.
Right. And I'm sure there is no undo influence behind closed doors at the political-executive level on said data....
right....
Are you claiming that ADP, a publicly traded company whose source of profit is to provide as accurate economic data to clients as possible, illegally conspired with the US government to falsify employment data, and that ADP also illegally conspired with the Institute for Supply Management (ISM, a non-profit, founded in 1913) to produce the confirmatory heavy ISM uptick today?
Are you saying that all publicly traded companies whose ostensible sources of profit are to provide accurate economic data, never have ulterior motives, nor are never mistaken? I would point to our not-so-accurate rating firms (S&P, Moody's, etc) as a counterexample.
Arthur Anderson, Enron, Tyco, Worldcom...
Most of the examples you cited were cases of internal fraud: i.e. fraud of significant size but limited to a single organization and to a relatively low number of participants. Also, the participants were financially motivated to commit the fraud.
That the hundreds of people who produce the ADP numbers at ADP, who create the ISM surveys at ISM and who collect the government data all are part of the 3-way organizational fraud would require immense amount of organizational skill, and would require that not a single one of those hundreds of people is a true patriot who would blow the whistle ...
Not to mention the profound lack of motivation. ADP does not care whether the economy goes up or down, ISM does not care (it's a non-profit, founded in 1913), and government buerocrats definitely do not care.
High level policy makers probably care, but do you really think they have so much influence over so many non-motivated people in three organizations to commit such criminal fraud of an epic magnitude?
So yes, the possibility looks pretty remote. You'd have to cite actual credible proof.
I'd rather go for the much simpler explanation: US employment is probably in an uptick, reported by ADP, confirmed by ISM, confirmed by the good black friday data and expected by the two stimulus measures enacted and announced recently. Even if ADP is wrong by 100k that would be a +200K uptick - still very significant.
Whether that uptick is a fluke or not remains to be seen.
To paraphrase Twain: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and the statistics The Bernank uses to screw with the economy.”
http://therookiecynic.wordpress.com/2011/01/04/bernanke-is-living-in-cpi...
Shit the fuck up Donny. You're out of your element.
too funny!
First - The take I got from it was that TD/ZH doesn't believe it for two seconds, thus remaining consistent.
Second - Let's wait for the seasonal/revision/miss/oopses to be figured in
Third - Why the fuck are you even here if you are so disgusted by the hate and bias?
Fourth - Please post one of your unbiased Krugman diatribes to back up your position. It really helps.
Douchebag Troll
Nice try, but you are attempting to make a logical and reasoned statement to a group of highly emoitional perma-bears.
The truth has no value here; Tyler's job is to slant all information so that the herd will meander to the salt lick and stay for the day.
Your points are perfectly valid but in the irrational mind of the ZH sheeple, rational discourse reeks of rebellion against their dear leader and must be stopped at all costs.
After all, what would Tyler have if too many of his sheep were to stray off the reservation?
Of course since I do not tow the party line, I shouldn't be here I guess. But I am able to glean how it is there are the haves and the have nots in the world. The ZH sheeple fit nicely into the second category.
By the way sheeple, what is the crisis of the day today? You know, that event that will tip the balance and the man will be forced to pay for his crimes? Oh, that's right - GM is stuffing cars on its dealers. Oh my, the sky is indeed falling! Or at least we are "on the brink"!
Btw., I disagree with you, I dont think Tyler is misleading intentionally and maliciously to 'herd' people.
I think it's based on honest but logically inconsistent/broken logic/thinking, magnified by the self-reinforcing nature of the herd/groupthink mentality of a popular website.
It's pretty hard to remove bias, especially if you yourself are suffering from it.
(And that applies to me just as much.)
You're on the right track, of course, the obvious reason for the job:
All those subpoenas directed at robo-signers not only turned up the usual zillions of fraudulent affidavits (which translates to at least thousands upon thousands of felonies -- yet no banksters jailed to date), but turned up the fact that many of those signatures were by deceased former employees (as in been dead for over ten years, buried and definitely did not come back as zombies just for the banksters' evil and illegitimate profiteering at the expense of the citizenry).
In other words, the banksters felt the need to hire temporary "live" people in pursuit of litigation-avoidance.
Those examples of previous ZH articles are not proof of irrational sell-side biasing. They are, however, evidence that the Tylers are rational humans reporting on an irrational world.
Anyone who thinks a bearish outlook on the economy is not an appropriate response to the US Gov / FedRes complex's *irrational* monetary, fiscal, and economic policies, is in my opinion just another all day sucker. To report any improving numbers as evidence that current policies are working, sustainable, and Good, would be untruthful.
I am not bothered in the least by the so-called lack of 'objectivity' here. ZH is very transparent about their editorializing. I don't think we would be well served by an attempt to be 'objective'. It would just end up as 'neutral' reporting, which is an insidious bias in and of itself.
Why on earth would ZH ever admit that QE2 may be stimulative? The overwhelming evidence, as well as sound economic principles, show that it is not. We're talking about the truth here, not about a statistical blip.
Not to mention the fact that this 'surprise jump' number is not 'good', it is merely 'not as bad as expected'. Our economy needs a huge jump every month just to tread water. In fact we have a long way to go just to get back up to the surface.
Nothing fundamental has changed in our economy to cause this number to appear organically; therefore it should be reported with skepticism. There's nothing inappropriate here...provocative maybe, but not wrong.
You'd have to ignore most of the economic data out of the US since October/November to be of that opinion.
QE2 was risky but turned out to be pretty stimulative: it forced corporate money out of bonds, which forced spending and investment (finally!) and caused increasing optimism in various production sectors of the US economy. Lagging a few months but there's now a significant uptick in employment as well - possibly also helped by the second Obama stimulus.
Of course a lot more will have to happen to dig us out of the hole that Bush II put us into, but you'd have to be blind like a mole and deaf like a stone to not see or hear any of the QE2 stimulative effects :-)
.
Is there any question that QE2 is stimulative? The real question is what will happen when QE2 ends.
"297,000 from November to December on a seasonally adjusted basis"
and what was it without the 'adjustment'?
Nice bounce in the futures, especially the banks.
Bonds and resource stocks taking some serious hits as the dollar is ramping big.
Looks like the top of the rollercoaster...
Safe to say the USD is going to crush PM's today...
Nice move in NVDA pre-market, tech stocks seem to be leading still.
I love the smell of troll in the morning.
I love how the ocean rolls out before a tsunami comes.
A giant killer wave it coming? Bullshit, look how far the tide is out! Look, I can walk a half mile out to what used to be under water. You're telling me that a bunch of water is going to come crashing, there isn't even any here. Hell, I'm going to build a house out he--OH SHI-
great analogy.
Agreud. MUCH better than his last one.
After a while, doesn't the continual bull news just make you sick. I'm like everyone else and want the economy to turn around, but at this point things are not getting better. Check for yourself
http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
Are you and Quint teaming up at the "Ville" watching those "semis"?
LOL
Another bad day for PMs as new converts put on their flak helmets and run for cover.
No sweat. Au to $100. Cool, buy. Ag to $2. Cool, buy. FRN to $0. Cool, use for kindling. The game is drawing to a close.
I saw what you did there...
<grin>
The Bernank is a genius. Depression averted! On to the next bubble...
.....crossed 80 just now......any way this has given an indication to what will happen to PMs later in the year when a MASSIVE rally in dollar comes
Hammer that Silver at 17$.
Will not even bother to check on PM prices today. It's baked in.
And this Numb and NUMBer game, is a dumb and DUMBer game. Any number they want, to support any thing that needs supporting, will be pulled out of the hat. It's fun to watch, like a bad b-movie.
Spinning, out!
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/01/05/stairwell-sigtar/
It is fun to watch. Got my home grown popcorn and Himalayan Pink Salt and enjoying the hell out of the big game. Actually, better than the Super Bowl, since the Bowl acutally has rules.
Hey Cossack, funny you should say that. I'm planning on going long on Phys Himalayan Pink! Seriously. Got to have good salt.
And true, like in Oz, no-rules football.
ORI
Like someone here likes to say...should have bought the dip. Futures will turn and the one thing up today will be....wait for it......stocks. Don't fight the fed.
Interesting. Huge NSA first time claims in December yet everything is wonderful. I can't wait to see the February BLS Employment Situation report with the massive revisions....
Get yer pom poms out. If we have
numbers like this every month for the
next five years, we'll be back to normal
by 2015. Ain't that wunnerful? Course,
SPY already reflects this. LOL
And as the markets already reflect us being
at the top of our game forever, I
don't pay much attention to them
anymore.
PMs not dropping at all, FFS
And S&P futures still sucking wind. Correction imminent. Call Marc Faber.
more slaves entering the system, if even by "magickry", allowing the fake and worthless paper to be backed by more shares of people(slaves) thus propping up the worthless paper. I get it now.. anyone for completely refusing to use fiat in lieu of silver and gold yet?
magickry.... i likes that word
will spread if u dont mind...
By all means. I think it truly describes the bs going on quite well.
I saw this the other day.
Magic mockery or magickery.
damn, and I thought I came up with a neologism. However, I intended "Magic" and "Trickery".
I like yours better. Makes more sense.
Poor bears, they just can't catch a break LOL More proof the economy is NOT falling off a cliff, and in fact improving. Expect a major push higher in stocks by weeks end, sorry bear, you lose again ! LOL
Dumb fuck. Nirvana's baked into the
current numbers.
Yeah; outstanding. If we come out of this with the Bernank thinking that dumping money everywhere is the solution, do you really think we have truly fixed/addressed anything that got us here in the first place?
I stopped reading at "proof"
Don't know 'bout them bears but the sheep are short and about to get fat.
Baaaaa.
Short term variance is crushed by mid and long term trends.
Sorry, you still fail :(
too much dopeium have had u...
backeth up from thy pipe'eth...
cannonball it!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LbIajaSH4dg
A way to ease the addicts of the QE, the patient is getting better! Look for rosier reports and weaker markets.
It's time for the little Qe birdies to leave the nest fly lil birdie..lol
vc
By "QE birdies", do you mean the helicopters?
All the holiday workers getting laid off will show up soon, ride the sine wave.
"And Mr. Bernanke funded the school with some money he found in his tuxedo pants." (apologies to the Simpsons) -
The grift of the Magi.
I knew the bernak could kick start the economy-of course these are virtual jobs, the UE in the physical world have been lost to the machine world and now do not exist..soon California will find $ 20 billion left behind in the Governor's office desk yep this economy is just booming.
Well that's the end of the decline in futures . As I've mentioned before , the "buy the dip" approach seems to have mutated into an intraday strategy .
It's trader heaven. But the big money is being made in FX. Talk about wild swings...wow.
Yeah FX has been pretty damn volatile lately . USD/JPY just jumped 75 pips in a few minutes and took out the 83 handle . Insane move for that pair .
Or maybe it's just another economic recovery and there is no "new normal" either way TD is getting killed again. Good job he just comments and doesn't actually manage money, or at least if he does it won't be for much longer!
You lost the way, the troll convention is the site next door.
Have you noticed that the quality of trolls around here has declined precipitously in recent weeks? Must work inversely to their quantity.
Don't sweat it the little lies weren't working. So now they are going to get rediculous, and so distorted that a retarded blind person will be able to spot it.
Welcome to 2011.
2010 was lie hard.
2011 is the sequel. Lie hard, lie harder.
2012 is Lie Hard. Been caught stealing. Judgement day.
I've closely followed his thesis and have done nothing but make money for the last two years. LOTS of money.
No bears here are short. We are down slightly in the last two days, but so what? Short term variance is crushed by mid and long term trends, which remain UNCHANGED.
Mr Durden is well skint if he followed his own advice, something tells me though that he's not stupid enough to actually trade on it.
BJ's Wholesale Club, a potential takeover target, will shave hundreds of jobs and close five stores by the end of the month.
10-Year Note
And Ben gets his Cohiba.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/01/10y_05.html
Edit:
Sorry, Ben. No cigar.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/01/10y_7125.html
Looks like the gloomers got it wrong again.
JPM is not going to fail.
The economy is getting better, not worse.
Gold stocks appear to be headed for another brutal 30% correction before moving higher.
There is no shortage of silver.
The PIIGS countries are not going to default.
Tech and bank stocks are still leading the tape.
I had high hopes for you but you're
beginning to sound like someone with
only 10 years trading experience.
He is a troll. Trolls don't have "trading experience".
no, just trading experiences...
What, you mean like in a rest stop restroom?
Robo's never heard of going down on
good news. It's out of his realm of
experience.
Looks like that post is being downgraded to junk. How low can it go?
Excellent, perhaps since the recovery is so strong, there is no reason for Bernanke to monetize $1.2tn on an annual basis.
So let me get this straight. You sold out 75% of your longs. Your remaining longs as per yesterday had strong exposure to metals and are getting killed and now you are touting the bank stocks and tech while losing money.
Let us know. Did ya buy the dip yesterday?
What did you buy?
Did you bail your remaining metals stocks?
They just don't get it Robo... its heads bulls win and tails bears lose... LOL
I get it just fine. I'm short $3 r2000 vs. long $1 industrial metal stock.
What's your idea?
Or maybe you don't want to put it out there because that would take some risk...
Investing in the big banks is immoral. Their profits are torn from the backs of the taxpayer.
Remember the other side of the catch22 - this alleged "good news" means all that monopoly money might start to circulate, and... RUT RO.
Bingo. In addition to much good news and the QE spigot gets turned, no free crack and then what.
Well, I was wondering what 'miraculous' data would be presented today to get the futures out of the shitter. Of course, it's 'seasonally adjusted', end of year adjustments, and god knows what else.
TA-DA!
I've got my popcorn bucket ready to go for the ISM report. Just finishing melting the butter right now...
Just stop for a second and imagine the damage that could be unleashed by 2.3M angry construction workers.
It's my theory that when people start calling a 0.3% drop in the S&P futures a 'dip' then we are close to a market top.
Remember - 'It's not a pyramid scheme, it's a buy the dip scheme!'
When was the last time we saw a 1% drop on the DJIA? Must have been quite a while ago; every time I've seen a significant move downwards over the past 6 months, SOMEONE has stepped in with massive buy orders.
Nothing suspicious about that. An entirely organic market.
Yes, fueled by export surpluses, high wages, a rockin' education system, an efficient mass transit system, an affordable, yet excellent health care system...oh, and Sarah Palin!
Even if the number is accurate, it's
an outlier and the market p/e (in
historical nosebleedville) more than
reflects it. Robo should worry about
theree being no one left to buy and nobody being short.
I bet these numbers are cooked to manipulate the commodity market.
Every market on the globe ALREADY
reflects a boom, so it doesn't matter
what #s they come up with any more.
It's all baked in and they've all bought.
It's just another bubble like the last one.
I will admit..this is a big jump...and the news will take the day...and PM´s will be taken down...but we are still printing money..still have 46 million on food stamps...14 trillion plus in debt..interest rates going up...blah blah blah...until I see revenues increase from the old revenue streams..not the new taxes......its not over....
It's always the debt and it has not went away. Google Martin Armstrong's latest.
100k
This number semi-confirms what I've been seeing anecdotally.
I'm as big of a bear as there is out there. But, I think we might be at the beginning of a time period where the dam bursts and we see a ton of hiring for 6 months or so. Of course, nothing has changed from a fundamental standpoint. But, all that free money has to start going somewhere though. And I believe there's enough pent up demand in various areas to last for a while.
This.
I don't understand it. Robo used to give us good posts. I bet next he will be saying higher interest rates are great for housing as the economy continues to recover.
What is wrong here, it is not about the economy, it is about the DEBT. It is unsustainable. Period. We are not going to pay it back.
Do I hear 15 Trillion.
why the f. are you guys enabling robotrader. all u guys talk same shit everyday, seriously.
just stfu and let robo be robo
No surprise at all. See the stock market rallay, they already showing it. But I afraid the people who jump in it didn't know how high the price it's.
Some bad new must come soon!!!!
Without it the gang like Goldman and Citi how to dump their STOCK?
And yet, Benron's Boys don't see any reason to stop the sugar flowing out of the Big Rock Candy Mountain.
Here's a question for all the troll-bulls - if everything is so wonderful and we're "on the mend" and "recovering" and all that, then when can Uncle Sugar stop spending 12% of GDP in deficit? And when can Benron end the "extraordinary" "temporary" QE-type measures? Now? Tomorrow? Never?
Or must the Ponzi continue indefinitely - until the next crash, that is.
That's kind of the yen & yang of this thing isn't it? As long as the money spigot is open it's like an open bar party...bulls know that as long as the alcohol is flowing the party will keep rocking...bears know that sucking down gallons of free alcohol will lead to a massive hangover as soon as the party is over.
The problem is that we're both looking at the same clock and we don't know if it's 7PM and the party's just getting started...or 7AM and soon the toilet hugging will begin. Or hell, maybe the bar just keeps serving until the debt police arrive and shut it down.
Well, that's sort of my point - just with better imagery!
There is no actual recovery so long as its very existence is predicated on Free Sugar and Coke. Extend, pretend, party like it's 1999. Then hand our kids and their kids a nice fat juicy bill for the party. Awesome.
Or hell, maybe the bar just keeps serving until the debt police arrive and shut it down.
Perhaps WE are the only debt police left.
The long bond sits at a Juicy 4.5% .. steady return in a zirp world. What virgil looks for Low risk, in a High risk market.. let Robo run like a stock market monkey..just pay me!
Robo is in good company.. Larry Kudlow said.. '2011 is another Bull Year!' hahaha. The first Day of the year and he already knows how the Whole Year will play out.
USD strength returns yet again. As noted many times, it keeps occurring because USD larger time frames continue to give bullish warnings. And so I remain US Dollar bullish and Euro etc. bearish.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
200k Walmart greeters fell and broke their hips, making way for their replacements.
The good news is compounded by the fact that the broken-hipsters are now in
nursing homes, creating thousands of jobs for bedpan-emptiers.