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ADP Employment Change Misses Estimates, Comes In At 55K Vs 70K Expected, Declines From Revised April
The ADP May report missed expectations of a 70k increase in private payrolls, coming in at 55k. The number is also a 19k decline from a revised April number which was increased from to 32k to 65k. None of this worries those in the administration who keep leaking the 700,000+ NPF due out tomorrow, based on practically no new hires.
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Looks in line with the slow down in KC and Dallas Fed data. Small biz May report from NFIB shows a continued decline in small biz hiring.
www.nfib.com/Portals/0/PDF/sbet/sbet201005.pdf
Screw the ADP report, pay attention to household survey tomorrow morning - it leads payrolls at turning points.
A survey vs hard count numbers? really you would go with the survey?
Additionally, who do you trust more? Numbers from a private company or a government organization.
I trust both of them to act in their own self-interest and try to triangulate some form of relevant "truth" from the two based on what I believe those interests to be.
I trust John Williams. www.shadowstats.com
It's called validation. Disregard information contradictory to your argument in the search for information which does support, at which time, you classify as "relevant".
Here's a "survey"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Retailers-reports-show-tepid-apf-666375818...
Not sure of the validity of the "Google Domestic Trends" data, but things don't look so hot in many categories.
http://www.google.com/finance/domestic_trends
Sure, believe the bullshit government produced/manufactured survey number and ignore an actual count of payrolls done by a private firm.
Trade on whatever data you want, but don't expect me to believe the hopium induced fantasy this administration is trying to spin, Leo.
The problem with the household survey is that many people who is working part-time (U-6 unemployment on the skies...) appears in the survey as "employed". Yes, more people are getting "jobs", as the household survey shows, but those are not Jobs, are "jobs" (part-time under-payment "jobs").
Welcome, americans, to a brazilian reality...
Leo, try reading some of the facts about the issues with the household SURVEY and you might understand why the only time anyone talks about it is when they are desperate for numbers to look better than they are...remember the last time (jobless recovery). Also, if it so good at finding the jobs before they can be measured in the payroll report, why isn't it a leading indicator of job losses as well? And finally it's done by the Census bureau, need I say more?
http://www.epi.org/publications/entry/briefingpapers_bp148
pay attention to household survey tomorrow morning
Because people are always truthful about whether or not they're still unemployed after six months of searching in surveys!
Look, it's pretty clear that Leo is long solars and other stocks and is desperate to validate his decision. Sort of like the German citizens who believed the reports of all the Russian tanks being destroyed by the Wehrmacht as the Red Army closed in on Berlin.
New hires should be somewhat easy to calculate going forward, because employers will be taking advantage of the Hiring incentives to Restore Employment (HIRE) Act and new hires will be filling out a Form W-11
Interesting article re: "employment"
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/02/opinion/02reich.html?ref=global
I'd love to agree with the Lil Reich's optimism, but millions of unhireable gray heads forming start-ups into an economy that will provide them no growth ain't good news; it's just another symptom of the desperation, but kudos to those who try rather than sit on their butts.
I feel for "George" in the article. . . sold industrial plastics for years, job gone Dec '08. All I could find was part-time/temp doing tax returns (yea, tax season!) - for $8.00/hr! Found full-time before April 15th - the ONLY thing around - at a shitty inbound customer service gigantic call center - gov't contrancts i.e. 1-800-MEDICARE. They had a "workforce reduction" in March this year - as soon as they let some folks go (from a regular full-time with benefits contract), they were calling and offering jobs on a temp contract (the CENSUS!) - HAHAHA!! I didn't get let go but that j-o-b made me want to shoot myself in the face every day so, me all ballsy, quit. And now I wait tables. Actually making more $ than I did at the call center by the sheer force of my personality. Hooray! But, I'm 45. And this shit is kicking my ass! I could still be on long-term unemployment and have days that I tell myself what a dipshit I must be for that not to be the case.
RE: the HIRE Act
Like every governmental program, this will encourage fraud. Who thinks every application for the homebuyer credit or the cash for clunkers or cash for appliances was valid?
It wasnt valid, In fact the home buyer tax credit is going to get crushed with when they are not able to close..MOST are trying to obtain the credit through "OWNER FINANCING" type of scams, thats why its taking 6 months or more for the feds to distribute the checks...It WILL BE REVISED WAY DOWN when these new home buyers do not go through...
As a taxpayer, my hopes are with your analysis. The cynic in me says that a high rate of fraudulent applications (15 to 30%) will be approved. Curious, do you have first hand knowledge or a news report of the delay in the feds releasing checks?
NSA still above 400,000 and EUC still over 5 million, long term state still over 4.6 million....and SNAP crossed the 40 million mark. I'm sorry folks, but if they claim more jobs created than lost tomorrow, I'm calling BS. These numbers have stayed steady...where did the 'new' workers come from?
As far as I can tell (the view from the backwater I live in) copper's in a down trend. So is the broader industrial commodities index. Both, I'd argue, lead employment. Do I read it wrong?
this is a jobless recovery...! I say ..green shoot..
I propose a new law , "The top 5 hiring employers must be included in the report"
I can never find these jobs, no press releases etc..But it's very easy to see lay off's, in the thousands...
Confucius say "I hear and I forget,I see and I remember, I do and I understand"
"I can never find these jobs"
you can't find them, beause they don't exist
Silvertrain- Exactly what Ive been saying...Lets see on CNBC all the CEO's who private sector hired 1,000 or more people full time, long term. They dont exist.
Let's see the Treasury tax receipts. All the census workers and the new employees added by the birth/death (LOL!) would have taxes withheld.....
Robbing Peter to pay....Peter!
Another flawed government program that was eased into the health care bill, which is entirely education related and has nothing to do with healthcare whatsoever, the Direct Lending Program for financial aid, is going to kill education. I know people who were approved under the Sallie Mae loans before dumbass Obama changed the rules, and they had to apply for their PLUS loans thru the government and got denied. They are taking the loans out of the hands of the companies who are lending, and putting them into the strict regulations of government and people are not going to be able to go to college. Nice job Obama! What moron dreamed up this Direct Lending Program should be shot in the head.
Of course, the government's answer to being denied your PLUS loan is flip you $4000 more in unsubsidized loans automatically. What is the point? This only helps if you only needed $4000 to make it. If you needed more, you aren't going to school. It's like the village idiots have taken over our country and we let them.
I'm not opposed to stricter standards for college loans. Too many people attend college as it is and I don't think they are necessarily learning anything other than drugs, sex and piling up debt. The below-market rates of Sallie Mae are a market distortion abetted by Uncle Sugar.
Of course everyone has seen the stories about how the govt is counting every worthless 1 census job at least 4 times. They only have to extend and pretend until June 22, Blackjack.
Trust the ADP number.
you can only peddle bullshit for so long before everyone sees through it and calls you on it.
I'd believe ADP before I would the BLS BS.
If we can spend money we don't have we can count people who haven't been hired based on the number of appications recieved.
PS. If you take a couple of hits it will start to make sense but you need reeally good hopium laced green shoots.