ADP Employment Prints 201K On Expectations Of 208K, Whisper Number Had 3 Handle
The ADP private payroll number has disappointed, coming below expectations of 208K, and down from a previously revised 208 from 217K. The number is also far weaker compared to a whisper expectation that actually had a 3-handle in front of it (unclear how much BarCap was involved in setting that benchmark). From the report, which does its best to hide the fact that the economy needs to create about 150k jobs a month just to stay in line with population growth: "This month’s ADP National Employment Report removes any remaining doubt that private nonfarm payroll employment accelerated heading into 2011. The increase of 201,000 is in line with the consensus expectation both for today’s report and for Friday’s jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The average monthly increase in employment over the last four months – December through March – has been 211,000, consistent with a gradual if uneven decline in the unemployment rate. This is almost three times the average monthly gain of 74,000 over the preceding four months of August through November." The worst performing sector continues to be construction: "In March, construction employment dropped 5,000. The total decline in construction employment since its peak in January 2007 is 2,126,000. Employment in the financial services sector increased 4,000 in March." But that's ok: financial services sector employment increased for the first time since 2007.
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