ADP Employment Prints 201K On Expectations Of 208K, Whisper Number Had 3 Handle

Tyler Durden's picture

The ADP private payroll number has disappointed, coming below expectations of 208K, and down from a previously revised 208 from 217K. The number is also far weaker compared to a whisper expectation that actually had a 3-handle in front of it (unclear how much BarCap was involved in setting that benchmark). From the report, which does its best to hide the fact that the economy needs to create about 150k jobs a month just to stay in line with population growth: "This month’s ADP National Employment Report removes any remaining doubt that private nonfarm payroll employment accelerated heading into 2011. The increase of 201,000 is in line with the consensus expectation both for today’s report and for Friday’s jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The average monthly increase in employment over the last four months – December through March – has been 211,000, consistent with a gradual if uneven decline in the unemployment rate. This is almost three times the average monthly gain of 74,000 over the preceding four months of August through November." The worst performing sector continues to be construction: "In March, construction employment dropped 5,000. The total decline in construction employment since its peak in January 2007 is 2,126,000. Employment in the financial services sector increased 4,000 in March." But that's ok: financial services sector employment increased for the first time since 2007.

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RunningMan's picture

Cheap labor = devalue the dollar. 

firstdivision's picture

That was a hefty revision for the prior number.  Are they following in BLS's lead?

cossack55's picture

Financial services increased. No shit. Carrying bags of cash is heavy work and messes up your tie.

Johnny Lawrence's picture

Just what this country needs, more financial services jobs.

RunningMan's picture

Misallocation of capital requires effort. As does turning the cranks on the printing presses. More interns please.

Robslob's picture

Jobs but it is too late...only 19 more months of lies until we get a new Liar in Chief!

djsmps's picture

Steve Liesman was dancing around like a little girl. We are saved.

oh_bama's picture
  • FOC 1183's picture

    Sorry Joel Prakken, the correlation between ADP and BLS is in the 80's on reported vs. reported, not 97.  

    Spalding_Smailes's picture

    Well we're movin on up,
    To the east side.
    To a deluxe apartment in the sky.
    Movin on up,
    To the east side.
    We finally got a piece of the pie.

    Fish don't fry in the kitchen;
    Beans don't burn on the grill.
    Took a whole lotta tryin',
    Just to get up that hill.
    Now we're up in the big leagues,
    Gettin' our turn at bat.
    As long as we live, it's you and me baby,
    There ain't nothin wrong with that.

    tmosley's picture

    I thought you said all was well?

    It doesn't look like anyone is "movin' on up" to me.  Well, except those who hold gold and silver, bitchez.

    Spalding_Smailes's picture

    Yup ... 


    Lockhart told reporters that he expects the Fed to end its current round of $600 billion in Treasury securities purchases through June as planned. The comments buttress views expressed during the past week by other members of the Federal Open Market Committee, including Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans that additional quantitative easing is unlikely.

    “My working assumption continues to be that” the bond purchases “will be completed as was originally designed, on the same time frame with roughly equal monthly purchases,” he said after his speech to the Rotary Club of Atlanta.

    tmosley's picture

    lol, and you're in stocks, right?

    What do you think has been holding up the stock market on non-existent volume?

    Spalding_Smailes's picture

    The blow out earning over the last 8 quarters by the fortune 500 behemoths ...

    Cat, McD's, Pepsi, Ford, Starbux ect ......


    The numbers back this up, the trains do not carry pomo ....

    WASHINGTON, D.C. – March 24, 2011 – The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported rail traffic gains for the week ending March 19, 2011, with U.S. railroads originating 293,772 carloads, up 2.3 percent compared with the same week last year. Intermodal volume for the week was also up, totaling 222,788 trailers and containers, up 10.7 percent compared with the same week in 2010.

    Twelve of the 20 carload commodity groups posted increases from the comparable week in 2010. Those groups posting significant increases included: metallic ores, up 93.5 percent; petroleum products, up 12.9 percent; motor vehicles and equipment, up 12.2 percent, and pulp, paper and allied products, up 11.2 percent. The commodity groups reporting a notable drop in weekly traffic were waste and nonferrous scrap, down 14 percent and primary forest products, down 10.1 percent.




    tmosley's picture

    What trains carry, trucks don't.  What do you do for a living again, driver?

    Spalding_Smailes's picture

    What , more reading • research needed before one speaks  .....

    I'll admit its not easy starting off people do not want to just give you work because you drop off information about your new business but I knew it would take time. I'm lucky I sell printing also ( banners, businesses cards, digital, t-shirts ) and I also do work on the side for friends. My insurance and other cost ( fuel ) are brutal but I have very low overhead so my prices can't be beat ..... The margins are brutal but I figure if I want to get ahead of the game in the future I will have 2 or 3 small businesses going at once. My family had money growing up, I did not know how hard it was to make it ..... My bad.



    Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) Rose 0.9% in January from December


    The revised Freight TSI rose 14.6 percent over the last 21 months, starting in May 2009, after declining 16.8 percent in the previous 16 months beginning in January 2008. The index has increased in 16 of the last 21 months (Table 2). In January 2011, the freight index returned to 108.1, the same level as in August 2008 when the index was early in the decline. 


    The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in freight shipments in ton-miles, which are then combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight.

    The January Freight TSI of 108.1 is a 14.6 percent increase from the recent low of 94.3 reached in April 2009. In April 2009, the index was at its lowest level since July 1997. The January Freight TSI is down 4.6 percent from its historic peak of 113.3 reached in January 2005.

    February truck tonnage increased 4.2% from a year ago but slipped from January, American Trucking Associations said Tuesday.

    The year-over-year increase followed a revised 7.6% gain in January that was below the 8% originally reported, ATA said in its monthly seasonally adjusted for-hire truck tonnage report.

    The index is now at a reading of 113.3, with the year 2000 as a baseline reading of 100. January’s truck tonnage reading was the highest in three years.





    snowball777's picture

    "Fuck payin' that white man's mortgage, 'ouise! We bought this damn apartment at the peak, I've got compressed margins at the cleaners, and my one good worker, Julio from the Lower Eastside volunteered to be deported so he could go back to Porta Rica" - George

    "Now, George, you know I golf with your lender and he's been under a lot of stress lately with all those putbacks. Have a heart." - Tom

    suldog's picture

    This is almost three times the average monthly gain of 74,000 over the preceding four months ..."

    No kidding.  If snow got the credit for prior numbers being weak, shouldn't even the clueless figure out that nurseries, landscapers, boat-yards and every other warm-weather job should have been piling in during March?  102k in the small biz arena is "good"?

    John McCloy's picture

    All services sector jobs. Proof that jobs can only be created passing shells in a ponzi economy. Once the spigot is turned off poof.

    SWRichmond's picture

    Construction jobs are almost entirely male.  So 'yesterday.'

    But if there aren't enough skilled professionals to do the jobs involving new technologies, the stimulus will just increase the wages of the professionals who already have the right skills rather than generate many new jobs in these fields. And if construction jobs go mainly to white males who already dominate the construction trades, many people who need jobs the most -- women, minorities, and the poor and long-term unemployed -- will be shut out.

    What to do? There's no easy solution to either dilemma. But there's no reason to think about "green jobs" as simply high-tech. Many low-income and low-skilled workers -- women as well as men -- could be put directly to work providing homes and businesses with more efficient and renewable heating, lighting, cooling, and refrigeration systems; installing solar panels and efficient photovoltaic systems; rehabilitating and renovating old properties, and improving recycling systems. "Green Jobs Corps" teams could be trained to evaluate and advise homeowners and businesses on these and other means of conserving energy.

    sethstorm's picture

    Wrong way around. 

    How about giving those people a lot more leeway in terms of being able to legally override requirements?  That is, create the opportunity instead of creating the program.  If they get people who do those things, fine.  

    QuantumCat's picture

    The confidence game continues.   Launch the spin team... "Markets rallied today on ADP numbers that could have been much worse.  Economists see this as amunition for the Federal Reserve to sustain low interests rates."

    Cdad's picture

    But that's ok: financial services sector employment increased for the first time since 2007.

    And herein lies the problem [one of them] with our stunted economic recovery.  Employment in the financial services sector should be moving lower...and rapidly so. Since Americans are not buying the market, and Americans are not involved in real estate [as evidenced by housing numbers and continued construction job losses], why would financial services jobs be increasing?

    Seasmoke's picture

    great news for college graduates coming out of school with $80,000 in debt

    Catullus's picture

    I wonder how many of those people were on the extended unemployment stipend.

    sethstorm's picture


    Now it's about burying the 99'ers so deep with population growth that nobody will touch them.

    cabernet's picture

    In this world, sounds like another reason to buy stocks.


    Saxxon's picture

    Matters not.  I am short and hurting.

    wswarrior's picture

    With the S&P at 1320, I guess an improving jobs market is still not priced in.  The S&P is not up about 2% since the last trading day before the Japan earthquake. 

    aVian's picture

    definately bullish

    the not so mighty maximiza's picture

    victims of high expectations...disgusting

    slovester's picture

    "From the report, which does its best to hide the fact that the economy needs to create about 150k jobs a month just to stay in line with population growth"

    Around the Mar 2009 timeframe, the monthly jobs growth number being stated as necessary to hold the unemployment rate steady was 350k/mo.  Gradually since then the number has been lowered to (now) less than half of the original.  Another couple of years at this rate and the number is going to approach zero.

    Just more TPTB numbers gaming...

    snowball777's picture

    ~20k of those ADP jobs were openings for bullshit artists.

    billporsche's picture

    Want to look at a true employment problem look at what one of our politicians is fostering.

    Sandy15's picture

    I believe 201K is significant, because the digital printing press has caused your 401K to become a 201K to create these jobs.

    Printfaster's picture

    The services jobs are all being created by the Obamacare leviathon.

    No productivity.  Just more jobs to keep more people busy doing nothing.  In the end, signifying nothing.

    sethstorm's picture

    Doesn't help to have a hostile private sector.