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ADP Employment Prints 201K On Expectations Of 208K, Whisper Number Had 3 Handle

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The ADP private payroll number has disappointed, coming below expectations of 208K, and down from a previously revised 208 from 217K. The number is also far weaker compared to a whisper expectation that actually had a 3-handle in front of it (unclear how much BarCap was involved in setting that benchmark). From the report, which does its best to hide the fact that the economy needs to create about 150k jobs a month just to stay in line with population growth: "This month’s ADP National Employment Report removes any remaining doubt that private nonfarm payroll employment accelerated heading into 2011. The increase of 201,000 is in line with the consensus expectation both for today’s report and for Friday’s jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The average monthly increase in employment over the last four months – December through March – has been 211,000, consistent with a gradual if uneven decline in the unemployment rate. This is almost three times the average monthly gain of 74,000 over the preceding four months of August through November." The worst performing sector continues to be construction: "In March, construction employment dropped 5,000. The total decline in construction employment since its peak in January 2007 is 2,126,000. Employment in the financial services sector increased 4,000 in March." But that's ok: financial services sector employment increased for the first time since 2007.

Full report

 

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Wed, 03/30/2011 - 08:27 | 1116375 RunningMan
RunningMan's picture

Cheap labor = devalue the dollar. 

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 08:29 | 1116376 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

That was a hefty revision for the prior number.  Are they following in BLS's lead?

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 08:29 | 1116378 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Financial services increased. No shit. Carrying bags of cash is heavy work and messes up your tie.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 08:30 | 1116379 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Just what this country needs, more financial services jobs.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 08:30 | 1116387 RunningMan
RunningMan's picture

Misallocation of capital requires effort. As does turning the cranks on the printing presses. More interns please.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 08:31 | 1116384 Robslob
Robslob's picture

Jobs but it is too late...only 19 more months of lies until we get a new Liar in Chief!

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 08:30 | 1116385 djsmps
djsmps's picture

Steve Liesman was dancing around like a little girl. We are saved.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 08:30 | 1116386 oh_bama
oh_bama's picture
  • ADP MISSEed DUE TO JAPAN AND WEATHER!!
  • Wed, 03/30/2011 - 08:31 | 1116389 FOC 1183
    FOC 1183's picture

    Sorry Joel Prakken, the correlation between ADP and BLS is in the 80's on reported vs. reported, not 97.  

    Wed, 03/30/2011 - 08:31 | 1116391 Spalding_Smailes
    Spalding_Smailes's picture

    Well we're movin on up,
    To the east side.
    To a deluxe apartment in the sky.
    Movin on up,
    To the east side.
    We finally got a piece of the pie.

    Fish don't fry in the kitchen;
    Beans don't burn on the grill.
    Took a whole lotta tryin',
    Just to get up that hill.
    Now we're up in the big leagues,
    Gettin' our turn at bat.
    As long as we live, it's you and me baby,
    There ain't nothin wrong with that.

    Wed, 03/30/2011 - 08:54 | 1116454 tmosley
    tmosley's picture

    I thought you said all was well?

    It doesn't look like anyone is "movin' on up" to me.  Well, except those who hold gold and silver, bitchez.

    Wed, 03/30/2011 - 09:05 | 1116486 Spalding_Smailes
    Spalding_Smailes's picture

    Yup ... 

     


    Lockhart told reporters that he expects the Fed to end its current round of $600 billion in Treasury securities purchases through June as planned. The comments buttress views expressed during the past week by other members of the Federal Open Market Committee, including Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans that additional quantitative easing is unlikely.

    “My working assumption continues to be that” the bond purchases “will be completed as was originally designed, on the same time frame with roughly equal monthly purchases,” he said after his speech to the Rotary Club of Atlanta.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-28/fed-s-lockhart-says-inflation-c...

    Wed, 03/30/2011 - 09:24 | 1116525 tmosley
    tmosley's picture

    lol, and you're in stocks, right?

    What do you think has been holding up the stock market on non-existent volume?

    Wed, 03/30/2011 - 09:35 | 1116539 Spalding_Smailes
    Spalding_Smailes's picture

    The blow out earning over the last 8 quarters by the fortune 500 behemoths ...

    Cat, McD's, Pepsi, Ford, Starbux ect ......

     

    The numbers back this up, the trains do not carry pomo ....

    WASHINGTON, D.C. – March 24, 2011 – The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported rail traffic gains for the week ending March 19, 2011, with U.S. railroads originating 293,772 carloads, up 2.3 percent compared with the same week last year. Intermodal volume for the week was also up, totaling 222,788 trailers and containers, up 10.7 percent compared with the same week in 2010.

    Twelve of the 20 carload commodity groups posted increases from the comparable week in 2010. Those groups posting significant increases included: metallic ores, up 93.5 percent; petroleum products, up 12.9 percent; motor vehicles and equipment, up 12.2 percent, and pulp, paper and allied products, up 11.2 percent. The commodity groups reporting a notable drop in weekly traffic were waste and nonferrous scrap, down 14 percent and primary forest products, down 10.1 percent.

    http://www.aar.org/AAR/NewsAndEvents/Freight-Rail-Traffic/2011/03/24-rai...

     

     

     

    Wed, 03/30/2011 - 09:39 | 1116569 tmosley
    tmosley's picture

    What trains carry, trucks don't.  What do you do for a living again, driver?

    Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:12 | 1116680 Spalding_Smailes
    Spalding_Smailes's picture

    What , more reading • research needed before one speaks  .....

    I'll admit its not easy starting off people do not want to just give you work because you drop off information about your new business but I knew it would take time. I'm lucky I sell printing also ( banners, businesses cards, digital, t-shirts ) and I also do work on the side for friends. My insurance and other cost ( fuel ) are brutal but I have very low overhead so my prices can't be beat ..... The margins are brutal but I figure if I want to get ahead of the game in the future I will have 2 or 3 small businesses going at once. My family had money growing up, I did not know how hard it was to make it ..... My bad.

     

     

    Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) Rose 0.9% in January from December

     

    The revised Freight TSI rose 14.6 percent over the last 21 months, starting in May 2009, after declining 16.8 percent in the previous 16 months beginning in January 2008. The index has increased in 16 of the last 21 months (Table 2). In January 2011, the freight index returned to 108.1, the same level as in August 2008 when the index was early in the decline. 

     

    The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in freight shipments in ton-miles, which are then combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight.

    The January Freight TSI of 108.1 is a 14.6 percent increase from the recent low of 94.3 reached in April 2009. In April 2009, the index was at its lowest level since July 1997. The January Freight TSI is down 4.6 percent from its historic peak of 113.3 reached in January 2005.

    February truck tonnage increased 4.2% from a year ago but slipped from January, American Trucking Associations said Tuesday.

    The year-over-year increase followed a revised 7.6% gain in January that was below the 8% originally reported, ATA said in its monthly seasonally adjusted for-hire truck tonnage report.

    The index is now at a reading of 113.3, with the year 2000 as a baseline reading of 100. January’s truck tonnage reading was the highest in three years.

     

    http://www.rita.dot.gov/

     

     

     

    Wed, 03/30/2011 - 09:08 | 1116489 snowball777
    snowball777's picture

    "Fuck payin' that white man's mortgage, 'ouise! We bought this damn apartment at the peak, I've got compressed margins at the cleaners, and my one good worker, Julio from the Lower Eastside volunteered to be deported so he could go back to Porta Rica" - George

    "Now, George, you know I golf with your lender and he's been under a lot of stress lately with all those putbacks. Have a heart." - Tom

    Wed, 03/30/2011 - 09:26 | 1116532 Spalding_Smailes
    Spalding_Smailes's picture

    Lol ... Instant Classic

    Wed, 03/30/2011 - 08:32 | 1116394 suldog
    suldog's picture

    This is almost three times the average monthly gain of 74,000 over the preceding four months ..."

    No kidding.  If snow got the credit for prior numbers being weak, shouldn't even the clueless figure out that nurseries, landscapers, boat-yards and every other warm-weather job should have been piling in during March?  102k in the small biz arena is "good"?

    Wed, 03/30/2011 - 08:32 | 1116396 John McCloy
    John McCloy's picture

    All services sector jobs. Proof that jobs can only be created passing shells in a ponzi economy. Once the spigot is turned off poof.

    Wed, 03/30/2011 - 08:49 | 1116433 SWRichmond
    SWRichmond's picture

    Construction jobs are almost entirely male.  So 'yesterday.'

    http://crooksandliars.com/susie-madrak/robert-reich-how-create-jobs-with...

    But if there aren't enough skilled professionals to do the jobs involving new technologies, the stimulus will just increase the wages of the professionals who already have the right skills rather than generate many new jobs in these fields. And if construction jobs go mainly to white males who already dominate the construction trades, many people who need jobs the most -- women, minorities, and the poor and long-term unemployed -- will be shut out.

    What to do? There's no easy solution to either dilemma. But there's no reason to think about "green jobs" as simply high-tech. Many low-income and low-skilled workers -- women as well as men -- could be put directly to work providing homes and businesses with more efficient and renewable heating, lighting, cooling, and refrigeration systems; installing solar panels and efficient photovoltaic systems; rehabilitating and renovating old properties, and improving recycling systems. "Green Jobs Corps" teams could be trained to evaluate and advise homeowners and businesses on these and other means of conserving energy.

    Wed, 03/30/2011 - 09:20 | 1116516 sethstorm
    sethstorm's picture

    Wrong way around. 

    How about giving those people a lot more leeway in terms of being able to legally override requirements?  That is, create the opportunity instead of creating the program.  If they get people who do those things, fine.  

    Wed, 03/30/2011 - 08:33 | 1116397 QuantumCat
    QuantumCat's picture

    The confidence game continues.   Launch the spin team... "Markets rallied today on ADP numbers that could have been much worse.  Economists see this as amunition for the Federal Reserve to sustain low interests rates."

    Wed, 03/30/2011 - 08:35 | 1116398 Cdad
    Cdad's picture

    But that's ok: financial services sector employment increased for the first time since 2007.

    And herein lies the problem [one of them] with our stunted economic recovery.  Employment in the financial services sector should be moving lower...and rapidly so. Since Americans are not buying the market, and Americans are not involved in real estate [as evidenced by housing numbers and continued construction job losses], why would financial services jobs be increasing?

    Wed, 03/30/2011 - 08:36 | 1116405 Seasmoke
    Seasmoke's picture

    great news for college graduates coming out of school with $80,000 in debt

    Wed, 03/30/2011 - 08:37 | 1116407 Catullus
    Catullus's picture

    I wonder how many of those people were on the extended unemployment stipend.

    Wed, 03/30/2011 - 09:25 | 1116527 sethstorm
    sethstorm's picture

    Less.

    Now it's about burying the 99'ers so deep with population growth that nobody will touch them.

    Wed, 03/30/2011 - 08:41 | 1116417 cabernet
    cabernet's picture


    In this world, sounds like another reason to buy stocks.

    www.TheAngryGrapes.Com

    Wed, 03/30/2011 - 08:42 | 1116421 Saxxon
    Saxxon's picture

    Matters not.  I am short and hurting.

    Wed, 03/30/2011 - 08:44 | 1116426 wswarrior
    wswarrior's picture

    With the S&P at 1320, I guess an improving jobs market is still not priced in.  The S&P is not up about 2% since the last trading day before the Japan earthquake. 

    Wed, 03/30/2011 - 08:51 | 1116443 aVian
    aVian's picture

    definately bullish

    Wed, 03/30/2011 - 09:02 | 1116475 the not so migh...
    the not so mighty maximiza's picture

    victims of high expectations...disgusting

    Wed, 03/30/2011 - 09:30 | 1116540 slovester
    slovester's picture

    "From the report, which does its best to hide the fact that the economy needs to create about 150k jobs a month just to stay in line with population growth"

    Around the Mar 2009 timeframe, the monthly jobs growth number being stated as necessary to hold the unemployment rate steady was 350k/mo.  Gradually since then the number has been lowered to (now) less than half of the original.  Another couple of years at this rate and the number is going to approach zero.

    Just more TPTB numbers gaming...

    Wed, 03/30/2011 - 09:38 | 1116571 snowball777
    snowball777's picture

    ~20k of those ADP jobs were openings for bullshit artists.

    Wed, 03/30/2011 - 09:39 | 1116575 billporsche
    billporsche's picture

    Want to look at a true employment problem look at what one of our politicians is fostering.

    http://familyfraud.com/the-selling-of-the-american-worker-h1b-visa-fraud.htm

    Wed, 03/30/2011 - 09:44 | 1116598 Sandy15
    Sandy15's picture

    I believe 201K is significant, because the digital printing press has caused your 401K to become a 201K to create these jobs.

    Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:15 | 1116725 Printfaster
    Printfaster's picture

    The services jobs are all being created by the Obamacare leviathon.

    No productivity.  Just more jobs to keep more people busy doing nothing.  In the end, signifying nothing.

    Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:31 | 1116788 sethstorm
    sethstorm's picture

    Doesn't help to have a hostile private sector. 

    Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!