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ADP Misses, Prints 179K On Expectations Of 195K, Down From A Revised 207K
And so the first warning shot for this Friday's NFP comes, which we believe will be substantially below consensus, in the form of the ADP report, which comes at 179K, down from a revised 207K, and well below expectations of 198K. And while the number is very disappointing, both construction and financial activities posted a solid up month, with financial jobs posting a second consecutive monthly increase after over 3 years of drops.
From the report:
Today’s ADP National Employment Report shows that labor market conditions continued to improve in April, but only at a moderate pace. The increase of 179,000 is close to consensus expectations both for today’s report and for Friday’s jobs report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
While employment accelerated sharply around the turn of the year, the monthly gains have been holding fairly steady around 200,000 since then. Employment growth at this pace is consistent with only modest declines in the unemployment rate.
Employment among large businesses, defined as those with 500 or more workers, increased by 11,000, while employment among medium-size businesses, defined as those with between 50 and 499 workers, increased by 84,000. Employment for small businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, rose 84,000 in April.
In April, employment in the construction industry increased 9,000, only the second monthly increase since June 2007. Since December 2010, however, construction employment has, on balance, risen, suggesting that finally employment in this sector has bottomed out. The total decrease in construction employment since its peak in January 2007 is 2,115,000.
Employment in the financial services sector increased 4,000 in April.
Full chart:
Fins and concstruction jobs:
And Goldman's take:
MAIN POINTS:
1. The ADP forecast of private nonfarm payroll employment was +179k in April, slightly less than the consensus forecast of +198k. Growth in March was revised up to +207k from +201k. The ADP report combines proprietary information on employee headcounts with publically-available data (jobless claims and past payroll changes) to forecast the BLS measure of private payroll growth. Today's report was broadly consistent with consensus expectations for Friday's Employment Report, though it may indicate a small amount of downside risk.
2. The modest cooling in employment growth was relatively broad-based. Manufacturing employment growth slowed to +25k from +35k previously, and service-providing employment growth slowed to +138k from +169k. There was little evidence of renewed weakness in construction jobs: total employment in goods-producing sectors (which includes manufacturing, construction and mining) actually accelerated to +41k from +38k last month. By firm size, employment gains were concentrated in small and mid-sized businesses.
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USD negative and equity positive.
Silver and gold liked the numbers.
EEU Line Bitchezzzzz!!!!
And as always, the freaking latest number gets revised...
You would think by now they would begin to feel rather silly for having revisions week after week. I mean, what other job can you have, be consistenly wrong and still have a job.
Fed Chairman?
Bravo!!!! Or a CNBC commentator.
And not only always being wrong... but always on the ``plus side``... gee maybe 2-3 times in a row might be a coincidence, but not EVERY SINGLE REPORT SINCE SEPTEMBER 2008 at least!
President, member of CONgress.
pipe down over there. what, are you trying to ruin it for me? signed, - The Bernank.
hot latin weatherwomen
Timmah!
Bullish. Employees are a drag on earnings.
+++, here's to doing WAY more with WAY less!
Well, looks like the futures have recovered nicely from this great news. We really do live in a financial Twilight Zone. Strange times. I guess I should be used to the market reacting positively to crap data by now. .
All bad news instantly means the market is going up! Investors on the "wrong" side of the news are now the ones making money. The manipulation is so blatent that its laughable. I mean, I really laugh when I hear bad news and tell co-workers that we're going to see the market go up throughout the day.
Market is only going up priced in $. Dow/Gold ratio is a better indicator.
Equities not even positive for the year, the big illusion. Equities also went up in Weimar and Zimbabwe. Means nothing but proof positive we're screwed.
Meanwhile, the 99ers fall off the unemployment roles in the tens of thousands (maybe even hundreds of thousands) each month becoming UNCOUNTED unemployed. And so the unemployment rate improves. The numbers are only secondary to the way you spin them. It's funny that the gubmint doesn't report the number of people whose UI benefits expire -- they certianly know the exact number.
Yep.
"At the time the survey was done, about 8.5 million were receiving some kind of unemployment payments, according to the Labor Department’s Employment and Training Administration. That leaves about 5.5 million people unemployed without benefits, up 1.4 million from a year earlier."
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/04/30/number-of-the-week-millions-set-to-lose-unemployment-benefits/
+1 Thanks for the link. Very informative.
You're welcome.
Gee 179k jobs in April while what... 300k new people entered the work force? Not to mention the people who got fired in the month...
The dxy has decided to resume taking a dump..
ADP???? probably the most irrelevant of irrelevant stats
OBAMA'S EMPLOYMENT PLAN WORKED!!
Putting people to work in innovative industries!
We can only imagine what kind of CDS Frankenstein they invent next to put the rest of the US to work...
So thats what he meant by "green jobs".
Shovel ready.
Futures...rise.
Should be a big big day for the REITS. This is great news for retailers and strip malls.
Brother Boiler,
Today's reaction notwithstanding, this 3 year long mega trend is ending. Simon Property Group is in its topping formation now.
The REITs are just about done now. They will be sold in May just before everyone goes away, but because of the curious malfunction of the market, the selling will create curious pops in individual names as criminal syndicate Wall Street bankers fight to see who can set the highest short position.
I agree...I have been waiting for DRV to get below 10 bucks and I am then gonna place my bets on the REITS crashing in the summer as the threat of interest rates rising sinks this web of lies.
Then I plan on selling in Sept / Oct right before QE3 is announced!
SNAP to the rescue!
It looks like the Bernank is disperately trying to hold 1350 on spooz but will he send the dollar over the falls to acheive that ?
His only choice. Im rather enjoying watching the Bernank keep the hardly-positive equities 'apparently rising' by crushing the dollar.
Does anyone believe the numbers put out by governments anymore ?
For those who still believe, I would like to offer for sale San Francisco's Golden Gate Bridge.
Who wants to start the bidding ?
as john williams has mentioned the depression has been so deep that seasonal adjustments in employment is meaningless. in any event the wise guys will fudge the numbers as much as possible to make it appear there's a rebound underway. most of us realize the game.
Great news for the stock markets...BUY, BUY, BUY!
"Financial Services Jobs" post gains - yeah, they are hiring forclosure and liquidation staffing.
"Construction Jobs" posted strong gains - yeah, with all the floods and storm damage, would you believe people are actually repairing their damaged properties?!
Main St is sucking wind. Look at the uptick in massive layoffs. Local and State governments continue to shed/shred jobs. This does not translate into "recovery" happy talk, and thee numbers are not happy numbers.
Big bank balance sheets are the only metric that matters anymore.
This will kick off more smoke, more spin. WH press corps will turn this into "evidence the recovery will take time" sound byte which the AP minions will plaster throughout the MSM.
The more manipulations, pull-backs, gyrations, etc., the stronger the gravitational pull of gold. In all the hype about silver raids, Dow overpriced, etc. etc., gold and the dollar are holding truest to the fundamentals.
At this rate it will take 20 years to get back where we were.
Imploding jobs must mean more people are buying $300 K-Cup coffee machines.
GMCR up $11 pre-market, making this stock one of the biggest runs ever.
Too bad gold stocks don't move like this. LOL....
$5 to $75
Well i guess you drink more coffee trying to stay awake looking for a job.
Nah, need a lot of coffee for the ever-increasing hours in the work-week. Pretty soon, any employee that receives over 4 hours of sleep a night will be written up!
Coffee is actually more valuable than gold at 0600 hours.
I don't understand what that has to do with gold.
smugly nauseating. I suppose you bought back then and held all this time the same way you bought the WMT ipo?
You should be a studio musician - no matter what crappy piece of music they handed you. you'd play your little heart out.
Too bad its on zero volume and fake.
This is gonna be fun to see what BS they put out once the gov is forced to do a 0 deficit... we'll be looking at a 10-12% crash in GDP in the first year...about 4X worse than 2008-2009...
Unfortunately we still have the effects of the Japanese Tsunami to filter through to the jobs market as well. Employment gets another smack on the head just as the stars were clearing from the eyes.
Can't we just call all these so-called unemployed persons on "unpaid leave" - or something.
Helps BHO's re-election bid.
I think we need 250-300k new jobs per month just to keep pace with population growth. 200k per month ain't jack.
As LT said to Theismann after sacking him (on the "crunch course" video),......"Son, y'all gotta do better than this".
Wash Times reports 'Obama Birth Certificate a Forensic Forgery'
YouTube - Washington Times: New Obama Certificate A Fraud!
You know it's bad when ADP misses...they're the biggest Kool-Aid drinkers around.
But naturally, Dow futures are up 5.
Just what we need more construction and banking jobs. I don't know about you, but I think we need double the financial planners we currently have. Adam Smith's "Invisible Hand" is supposed to allocate resources the most efficiently, but the market distortions we've had for decades has rendered our "free markets" useless. We are not so different from the old Soviets or tofay's ChiComms.
Let's see military spending was the 'Constrictor on the Pig' that finally suffocated the Soviet economy. How many pointless wars are we conducting? I keep losing track. And we spend 6X more on military than the Chinese (our closest competitor). Thank gawd we have such gifted leaders that will prevent the same fate as the Soviets got.
I think thats the problem there, they are always getting the consensus wrong.
I thought McDonald's hired 50,000 in April?
Anyone know the stdev between ADP and BLS over the last three years?
99 weeks ago was 6/10/2009.
Yeah, and if you assume most of those who lost jobs during the worst months of 2009 are still unemployed, then there are about a million more people about to lose unemployment benefits between now and June. That will really improve the official unemployment rate.
2009 Jobloss by month chart
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/jobs_nov.png
Made a chart prediction of coming gold bubble and its relatively modest (25%) correction before returning to 2000 USD reached in peak:
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&p=32176#p32176
Feel free to object based on rational or irrational grounds. There is still time both to join the move up, and to jump the ship at the peak ( October 2011).