ADP Plunges To -39K, Well Below Expectations Of +20K
ADP printed at a massive miss of -39K compared to a median consensus of +20K (range of -44K to 75K) . And the cherry on top: the previous number was revised from -10K to +10K, for a monthly swing of a whopping 49K. Everyone hoping for one last pre-midterm NFP hurrah this Friday will be disappointed, unless the Beijinigization of US data is now complete. Of course, this means QE2 is now all but certain. Elsewhere, USDJPY drops solidly to pre-intervention territory, printing at 82.70.
From the ADP report:
Private-sector employment decreased by 39,000 from August to September on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report® released today. The estimated change of employment from July to August was revised up from the previously reported decline of 10,000 to an increase of 10,000.
The decline in private employment in September confirms a pause in the economic recovery already evident in other data. A deceleration of employment occurred in all the major sectors shown in The ADP Report and for all sizes of payroll. The September decline in employment followed seven monthly increases from February through August. However, over those seven months, the average monthly gain in employment was 34,000. There simply is no momentum in employment.
Unlike the estimate of total establishment employment to be released on Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), today’s ADP National Employment Report does not include the effects of federal hiring — and now firing — for the 2010 Census. Hiring for the census peaked in May and is still tapering down slightly.