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ADP Prints At 157K On Expectations Of 70K, Up From 36K In May

Tyler Durden's picture




 

ADP has released a June private payrolls number of 157K, far above expectations of 70K, and up from a downward revised 36K previously. From the release: "Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector rose 157,000 from May to June on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report released today. The estimated advance in employment from April to May was revised down, but only slightly, to 36,000 from the initially reported 38,000. Today’s ADP National Employment Report estimates employment in the service-providing sector rose by 130,000 in June, nearly three times faster than in May, marking 18 consecutive months of employment gains. Employment in the goods-producing sector rose 27,000 in June, more than reversing the decline of 10,000 in May. Manufacturing employment rose 24,000 in June, which has seen growth in seven of the past eight months." Yet despite a supposed pick up in marginally weak employment sectors, both construction and financial jobs dropped once again in June, declining by 4,000 and 3,000, respectively. The one hopeful sign is that the bulk of hiring supposedly occured at small businesses (under 500 workers): "Employment among large businesses, defined as those with 500 or more workers, increased by 10,000, while employment among medium-size businesses, defined as those with between 50 and 499 workers, increased by 59,000. Employment for small businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, rose 88,000 in June"  ADP concludes: "These figures are above the consensus forecast for today’s report and for Friday’s jobs  number from the BLS. Payroll employment growth at this pace usually implies a steady unemployment rate, perhaps even a modest decline." The only question now is whether we are back to the old regime when the ADP consistently beats NFP numbers and has absolutely no correlation with what the BLS reports.

Full report

 

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Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:24 | 1431995 goldencross10
goldencross10's picture

Usually I'm pretty close with these #'s not today, big surprise

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:26 | 1431997 The Axe
The Axe's picture

Good number...no way around it...if it is correct

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:30 | 1432007 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Summer jobs.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:31 | 1432009 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Well, that's the problem ain't it?  The imp lives in the mice print.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:14 | 1432130 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

I guess we know now why they gunned Dow futures 50 points overnight when Asia wasn't going along for the ride. Oh, but wait, that would suggest illegality and rigged, manipulated markets. My bad.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:26 | 1431998 Slartebartfast
Slartebartfast's picture

ADP is full of shit.  Look at their graph. "The recession ended in summer of 2009!  Hooray!"

Pure, unadulterated bullshit.

Must be bullish!

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:34 | 1432017 Greeny
Greeny's picture

Yeah, hooray, bob, you just missed 700 + points

in the Market move.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:58 | 1432250 Slartebartfast
Slartebartfast's picture

Wake up and smell the coffee.  No MOPE here.  The "Market", has been reduced to an irrelevant anachronism by the Fed's constant manipulations.  They believe that if the stock market is up people will believe the economy is OK, and therefore it magically will be OK.

Actually they're onto something if you understand that economics is entirely a social phenomena and no kind of science.  While they are correct that an economy is driven entirely  by perception, they are wrong in their belief that stock prices alone form those perceptions.  The greatest fundamental of any social activity is fair play.  If the game is rigged everyone eventually quits playing.  Every day the Fed goes in a prints another truckload of FRN's they drive another stake in the heart of the economy.  Every time another banker gets a billion dollars for producing absolutely nothing the real economy takes another sucker punch in the chops.  It can only go on so long before the 100th monkey realizes it's all rigged and the whole society picks up their peanuts and walks away.  It has happened many, many times in history.  The only reason it hasn't happened here yet is that the crooks have been trading away the good name of the US of A - which used to stand for something in the world.  Now we are rightly seen as THE global source of tyranny and corruption.  They have turned Lady Liberty into the Whore of Babylon.  Soon we will realize that is what we have become and this game will be over but good.

So feel free to waste your time looking at graphs and rolling the dice in the rigged, looser's game of the Markets.  Take what meager pile of paper winnings you may or may not be allowed to walk away with by the floor boss and continue to make believe that it's all reality.  The damage has been done, and soon, very soon, you will see the whirlwind come upon us that we all so richly deserve.

Prepare.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:27 | 1431999 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

shocker.  espcially after they made up the PMI and ISM last thurs and fri.  the mandate now is:  Just blow away the estimates.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:30 | 1432006 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

It's gotta work better than the truth!

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:27 | 1432000 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

The most irrelevant non-event is suddenly the most erratic economic bellwether.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:28 | 1432002 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Omg....We may have just seen the Peak of this cycle! 

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:29 | 1432003 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Cue LIESMAN spin job and celebratory face stuffing run to Shoney's in: 3...2....1..

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 11:39 | 1432666 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

You mean: Cue-Ball LIES-MAN...  The bald fuck, all mouth and no brain...

ZH Survey: LIES-man is:

    [  ]  A moron's moron...
    [  ]  An idiot's idiot...
    [X]  Caruso-Cabrera 3rd boob...
    [  ]  Cramer the Clown's bitch...
    [  ]  Larry Kudlow's coke dealer...

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:29 | 1432004 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

I wet my pants and then passed out from the optimism.

Looks like the fuse it lit for another 800 point vertical ramp up of the market.  That'll get people convinced.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:32 | 1432011 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

hahahahahahahahahahahahaha   sure, we believe this!

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:32 | 1432012 Robslob
Robslob's picture

The markets like bad news...the markets like good news...it is a bull market.

Remind me again...I thought companies and oligarchs hated high employment because it cuts into profits...

damn that human labor component...

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:07 | 1432102 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

yeah, that's another curve-ball/new "normal". in the good ol' days, a company's stock jumped on announcement of lay-offs. what a pisser. now it goes up on lay-offs or hiring or 100 p/e or the CEO takin' a shit in the boardroom

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:32 | 1432013 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

financial jobs dropped?   Are bankers being fired and then hired at Mcdonalds?(service jobs)

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:33 | 1432014 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

70 vs. 157!!!   What is that, a 225% miss?  If WS economists still get paid after these types of performances.....I need a job there.  I dare say I'm more highly qualified than most of them:  I've got a dartboard! 

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:32 | 1432015 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Summer of recovery , Hail Obama-dama-ding-dong

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:33 | 1432016 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Now it confirms what we have expected -- last week's rally and no selloffs were secondary to Wall Street "insiders" front-running ADP report.

Even a second grader can see that this ADP numbers were leaked to a “selective group” last week.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:34 | 1432018 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

I doubt that.  The SEC is protecting the retail investor, including the short interest, against that type of unfair practice.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:42 | 1432032 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

We should see some “sell the news” action now as the frontrunners will sell into the initial spike to lock in profits – the “better than expected” news is out.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:36 | 1432019 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

"marking 18 consecutive months of employment gains."???

surely they are speaking of "service sector jobs" right? such as waitresses, bartenders, maids, McDonalds? Right?

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:45 | 1432041 Marty Rothbard
Marty Rothbard's picture

This isn't a government agency.  Why would they lie?  I think it's just seasonal employment.  I know the local Lowe's hired 5 or 6 people to help out in the lawn, and garden section recently,  they will lay off the 5, 6, or more crappiest employees come September, if not earlier.   If every Lowe's, Home Depot, Walmart, Target, ect. hires 5, it's a lot of people.  Then there are all the summer resorts.  Small beaches here in NC pretty much shut down over the winter.  You are lucky to find a restaurant, or motel open.  ADP is a pretty good way to handle payroll, particularly if you don't do it year round.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:35 | 1432186 Slartebartfast
Slartebartfast's picture

Fair point, but what about their graph that shows steady gains since July 2009?

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:45 | 1432042 BeerWhisperer
BeerWhisperer's picture

Posted this yesterday but am curious what some of you regular posters think. I'm not trolling I'm genuily asking you the following.

When do you change your view that doom and gloom is upon us and accept that your economic views may need to be tweaked?

I'm all for doom and gloom like the next guy but something has to give. If not the markets then perhaps our way of viewing the markets because they obviously don't jive with eachother.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:52 | 1432053 SDRII
SDRII's picture

markets don't equal economy. next.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:58 | 1432067 BeerWhisperer
BeerWhisperer's picture

Really that is your answer? Just what exactly do you think markets represent if not the health of the companies that make up the economy?

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:05 | 1432093 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

40% of the S&P 500 companies get their earnings from other countries. up from 20% just 10 years ago.

lets see, with employment, currency and tax arbitrage, one is able to say very little about the real US economy and a whole about how to game the system.

 

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:07 | 1432103 BeerWhisperer
BeerWhisperer's picture

Good point.

 

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:07 | 1432099 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

By that line of thinking, we're still in a depression.  There has been a severe disconnect between the economy and the markets since the Fed madate is to float stocks come hell or high water.  You can thank the PPT for the lie that is called the markets. 

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 10:21 | 1432315 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

I see you are not Laslo Byrini under that bag!

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 10:20 | 1432309 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Think of DOW 500,000 and 75% percent of the population on food stamps.  That is the future.   Great market, sucky reality.

 

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 10:53 | 1432444 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

When do you change your view that doom and gloom is upon us and accept that your economic views may need to be tweaked?

 

That's an easy one.  What you are really asking is: Why is this time different and there won't be a bull to grow us out of our predicament?

Answer:  Because this time is NOT different.  Because this time it's our nation state that is insolvent and our currency that is destroyed.  This is the inevitable end of our policies.  To understand why the gloom and doom scenario still applies, you have to study history, and I don't mean the history of the last three bubbles.  No matter what the market does, we are broke and the currency is destroyed.  Didn't you notice it debased 50% under FDR?  Didn't you notice the second big debasement under the Nixon administration?  Did you think we could debase the currency by 97%, continue to expand deficit spending, entitlements, and multiple (high tech, high cost) wars and still have the manuevering room to "stimulate" to the tune of unknown trillions?  I know, the last 3% of value left in the USD is the best 3% and we can never go broke.

This train is heading down the tracks and it doesn't matter what ANY economic numbers say.  The problem transcends any one economy.  With a global economy and a derivatives market that dwarfs all our economies by orders of magniture, all the lifeboats are tied together and will sink together.  Or did you think the Fed was bailing out foreign banks out of the goodness of its heart?

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 13:14 | 1433117 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

good points.  we are in the other half (part) of the disinflationary/deflationary market phase that began in 1981-2.  2008 is the demarcation line.  the full cycle began 1932-42 with the rise of equities (stocks and real estate) from the depths of the (first) great depression.  we are in the kondratieff winter.  a credit cycle of this magnitude, excess and (ongoing) corruption is not "corrected" by an eighteen month bear market which is largely reversed (save, significantly, for the financial sector) over the next two years.  there is more to come.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:03 | 1432085 gookempucky
gookempucky's picture

+ 1000

All about maybe. June 15

Jim Rogers, president and chief executive of Duke Energy Corp. (NYSE: DUK), said Wednesday that his company would return $1.3 billion in profits to the US and use it to help build its work force.

Speaking at an event sponsored by Third Way, a Washington-based Democratic policy group, Rogers said the money would be “repatriated” if Congress would pass legislation enabling the profits to be returned at a much lower tax rate.

Rogers said Duke Energy would use repatriated funds to modernize its power generation fleet, which would create 15,000 to 20,000 jobs.

http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9217859/EMC_to_add_500_jobs_in_Utah_

 

http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20110624/ARTICLE/110629708/-1/sports?Title=Biotech-firm-plans-to-add-175-high-paid-jobs&tc=ar

As you can see its always----hope too...plans.....would like too....over the next 5 years.....etc etc etc.

Here's who is supposedly hiring.

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com/jobs.htm

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:05 | 1432096 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Hmmm.......

Funny, everything I have read is employers are Cutting more positions, not hiring.

Is this for the US, or another make believe country?.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:19 | 1432132 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

I live in a big seasonal tourist area. Businesses here did a lot of last minute hiring as they were afraid of poor turnout. But traffic is suddenly heavy (Cape Cod) and everybody scrambled to fill positions resulting in a load of ads in local papers. Although foot traffic is up over last year, discretionary spending on anything else is way WAY down. Cheap meals are in. Higher end restaurants are noticeably quiet. Art gallery sales are down 80%+ or more over last season, I should know that's my business. Not a recovery summer here except for Pizza places and low priced motels. Last hurrah I guess?    

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 10:14 | 1432298 The Axe
The Axe's picture

thanks,,maybe you should stock more prints of dogs playing poker..that might help sales..perhaps some velvet Elvis Presley gold framed things

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:16 | 1432137 dlsamg
dlsamg's picture

Just assume we are back into the "Buy the dip" mode. FED has ended QE2 and can't start QE3 so they must return to the stealth pumping of the market. No other choice as it's the only option they have. What else do they have? They hope the "wealth effect" will somehow turn this around if they can keep it from crashing until at least the elections. If Obama wins the markets crash. No one can take another four years of this.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:26 | 1432168 richard in norway
richard in norway's picture

this is some turnaround, from bust to boom in 4 weeks

 

is it just me or is all the econmic data confusing, one set of data indicates a sharp downturn and the next an upswing

 

maybe the super wealthy are hiring servants?

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 10:13 | 1432289 for a dollar more
for a dollar more's picture

The jobs being added by small business are minimum wage part time jobs. These are not solid jobs that pay a livable wage. Many companies are now taking advantage of workers by paying them minimum wage; working them part time while boosting prices on their products. This does not make any sense. A worker is worth a livable wage. A livable wage is now $10 per hour at least! If you have to screw your labor to stay in business do the right thing and close down or pay your labor in cash and tell the government to collect the taxes. Small business should not be made into tax collectors for the government. This is another burden placed on small business that is plain wrong.

The government is not interested in doing anything about the unemployment in this country. Corporations are throwing workers under the bus because they do not need them anymore. If government was really interested in improving employment they would break up all the large corporations in this country that have become monopolies. This would create regional corporations controlled by local management thus creating redundancy. This redundancy requires more employees. Customer service; badly needed, would also improve.

The Truth of the matter is large national monopolies have destroyed jobs. Centralization is not good for prices or employment. More smaller companies mean more competition and lower prices. Where did America go wrong by accepting large monopolies? Government represents corporation persons rather than "we the people". When government gets back to representing the people then is when government will be begin to be the solution rather than the problem with high unemployment. President Obama; wish I didn't have to say this, but you are talking with forked tongue when you talk about creating jobs. You are part of the problem.  

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 11:01 | 1432485 riley martini
riley martini's picture

 Depends on what you mean by doom and gloom is it's not calling a lousy employment number good because expectations were lowered so far below a good number ? We need 300,000 a month for 5 years to get back to full employment. Maybe the millions of people foreclosed on or the millions left to be foreclosed on . The millions of people who have properties worth half what they paid.  The massive wealth transfer to finacial and goverment criminals through fraud and theft. The list is to long for a comment.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 11:19 | 1432579 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Exactly, in absolute terms, this ADP number is disappointing.  If averaged with last months number, the trend is still downward.  What is left unanswered is US Treasury sales: who is going to buy Treasury bills within this equities market? 

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 11:30 | 1432616 Jessica6
Jessica6's picture

Exactly. Guess they took their cue from IR professionals and it's now simply about beating expectations. Only need to set the bar low enough.

Just looking at earlier ADP reports. Compared to June of last year or the year before the numbers are fantastic (surprised this wan't in the headlines). However, it's well below the numbers in February or March.

Then consider how absolutely terrible May was and it becomes obvious: seasonal employers waited until the very last minute to do most of their hiring.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 11:17 | 1432567 riley martini
riley martini's picture

 My last comment was a reply to beerwhispers why the doom and gloom comment  . Just because you aren't  in foreclosure , underwater or maybe your pension hasn't been wiped out by fraud, theft or mis-management doesn't mean it isn't happening. Trillions of dollars used to prop up the stock exchange , money that should have went to education or SSI anything but the ponzi criminals . Ignoring what has taken place in this country only makes you ignorant. None of that bad stuff hapened to me but I know many that have been wiped out .

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 11:38 | 1432680 Jovil
Jovil's picture
New Hampshire man lights himself on fire to protest America’s decline

Late last week, Thomas James Ball reached his breaking point. Driven to desperation by a system that bankrupted him and destroyed his family, Ball walked up to the main door of the Keene County, New Hampshire courthouse, doused himself with gasoline, and lit himself ablaze.

Read more

http://lonerangersilver.wordpress.com/2011/06/20/new-hampshire-man-light...

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