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An Advance Look At The Upcoming POMO Schedule: Up To $130 Billion In Hot Brian Sack Liquidity Injections In A Month
As frequent Zero Hedge readers know, the next FRBNY POMO monetization schedule, in which the fund flow, simply put, is Brian Sack -> Primary Dealers (who collective hold $7+ trillion in debt, more on that soon) -> Steve Jobs, with a bunch of retail hot potato momo handlers suckered in the process, will be announced tomorrow at 2 PM. We can't remember the last time a Fed release was so anticipated, FOMC announcements included: by now even the hot dog dude knows that POMO days are a green light to a green close. So while money will not be put to any use for the next 27 hours, as the only trade is and continues to be levered beta Fed front-running, here is an attempt to forecast what the POMO schedule will look like from Ian Lyngen of CRT Capital.
Ahead of Wednesday afternoon’s NY Fed announcement of the upcoming buyback schedule, we thought it would be useful to compile our ‘guesstimate’ of what one might expect (see attached).
The attached table offers five sceneries from $100 bn to $130 bn and the implications for operation sizes based on 1) QE-1, 2) QE-Lite, and 3) NY Fed’s announced buckets/percentage-targets.
The consensus for tomorrow’s total schedule is $105 bn: $75 bn of QE-2 plus $30 bn of MBS/Agency prepayment. If the FOMC wants to front-load the process, we could see up to $130 bn: $100 bn of QE-2 plus $30 bn of MBS/Agency prepayment.
For those who are gunning for Soros legendary status, and wish to be remembered for taking on THE central bank (and hopefully succeeding), and not that pathetic excuse for a bank that is the BOE, there will be 16 opportunities in just the next month. Incidentally, if December 7 is indeed a POMO day, it may just be the right day to join Europe in its "Pull Money From The Banks" campaign, and take on Brian Sack head on...
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Insanity
Charts
SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/11/spx_09.html
30Y http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/11/30year.html
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts
Timmy: Catch, Brian!
Brian: Catch, Lloyd!
Lloyd: Catch, Steve!
Steve: Catch, HFT!
<bonk>
This is headshakingly unbelievable. $43B in POMO between 11/12 and 11/18?!?!
Buy. Buy everything that isn't nailed down. Unfuckingbelievable.
Btw, according to the above, the last POMO day of significance for 2010 will occur on 12/8/10. Coincides with The Turd's 12/10/10 $1500 gold price target rather well.
Hi Turd,
with all the new pomos, and China's noise, still think the shiny stuff is gona climb, I feel like we are due for a hick up but I am wondering if all the shorts have finally been slammed so much that they are giving up.... and to the moom we go?
Clark: No time to retype so here's a repost from earlier.
by Turd Ferguson
on Tue, 11/09/2010 - 09:31
#711542
I've maintained for months that gold is following silver.
The silver Comex is broken. December delivery is an absolute nightmare for Blythe and her minions. The question is: If the silver Comex is broken, isn't the gold Comex broken, too. The answer is: YES!
There are going to be stopping points along the way. Blythe, rather predictably, set up shop at 1420. When 1420 convincingly falls, she; going to fight like hell at 1440-1450. I'd expect all kinds of craziness when we hit 1440-50...Fed statements, etc...anything to talk up the $ and reverse the PMs. It'll probably work for a few days, maybe even a week. This advance has almost gotten out of hand and our buyer(s) of size may pull their bids for a few days in the hopes of adding again at lower levels.
So, let's say we see 1440-50 by late this week. Some profit-taking and bid-pulling pushes gold back to 1390 by mid next week. IF that happens (and it may not as this thing has taken on a life of its own), buy buy buy. 1500 by 12/10/10. Jim Sinclair's 1650 by 1/11/2011 looks like a certainty.
I was able to get 25oz at 21.70, on that measly amount I have already made almost 200$. If this isn't parabolic then idk what a parabola is.
Just think erection.
The PM's are showing their physical love for the FRN debasement.
Oh boy.
I think I can help you: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parabola
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag2010.gif
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au2010.gif
A linear rise is not a parabola. Silver might be entering a parabolic move, but that is far from certain yet. Gold certainly isn't.
The derivative of the move upward is linear at about 5% daily.. that would make silver parabolic wouldn't it? (Derivative = rate of change)
Math: 1.05x x=silver price
integrate and you get .575x^2 + C
seems to be following that pattern pretty accurately, at least since the recent lawsuits or RICO case
Must admit I was a little doubtful when you made that projection a while back. Now does seem totally in reach. the moves are downright silly in silver dragging gold forward. Can only imagine what a COMEX, or GLD/SLV scandal would do.
Yep, I think we all just have to buy, despite how fundamentally retarded all of this is. It's killing me.
Once again thanks Turd,
Many Goldbugs like myself have been waiting patiently for ten years to see this unfold. All along the way we've been ridiculed and dismissed as crazies, nuts and kooks. I always thought that most Goldbugs were quite rational and intelligent and critical thinkers. I think the last couple of weeks has shown that in spades.
Dixie at fiftie
"....Hot Brian Sack Liquidity Injections...."
That is, by far, the funniest thing I have ever read on ZH. I almost puked and laughed at the same time!!
agree, clever. We must both have equally dirty minds.
Disaster capitalism, american style. Hard assets, especially PMs, are your best bet, IMHO.
I'm really looking forward to the next time Zimbabwe Ben gets asked why gold and silver are moving up. Sure he will lie as he has no problem lying under oath, but still funny.
Here's what I dream of seeing tomorrow, following the lead of Warsh and Fisher.
"In light of positive economic developments since our Nov 3 announcement, and given the incipient inflation evidenced by rising commodity prices, we are limiting our purchases for November to the amount required to maintain our current balance sheet. We will continually evaluate economic conditions and adjust our purchases as warranted."
-- The Management
To see these wankers back-flip would be golden for sure.
Oh man you are dreaming. Ben was too late to recognize the problem in 07/08 and will be too late to raise rates. He evidently is not understanding that those home prices are long gone and never to be seen again. With metal skying, P/Es inflating and tough talk from China and just about every other nation I do not see how he cannot begin to at least sound hawkish out of fear of retaliation.Foodstuffs up and oil now at 90.00??
He flat out lied about monetizing our debt and inflated prices will only highlight the disaster that is the Fed for the American populace. No more shadows for and the Cartel Ben.
the capital of the private institution called the fed is only about 60 billion. if they back-pedal their balance sheet would plummet and they'd be wiped-out.
i'm positioned as though the chance for back-pedalling is nonexistent
Looks like a Chinese resturant menu.
Ben says "I would like one from column A and 2 from column B. And please don't skimp on the hot sauce."
Have they lost their minds ?
Charts? Do they still follow those? Spx Charts are now considered artifacts from the Fucking Dinosaur era. The only chart that matters is the daily Pomo OTB schedule chart such as the one above. Be sure to tune in every morning to pick your Horse. Ill put $500 on Apple in the 2nd Race.
Hey somebody needs to help me out here......please!
The market is up/flat on a day when:
China downgrades US from AA to A+
Ambac filed for bankruptcy protection
There is no POMO going on today
10Y's have been issued
The dollar is making a dead cat bounce & is up
Most bears have been shot and shorts squeezed dry.
I've been trying for 2 months to find an exit out of my old VXX short position (yes I am a total VXXtard for still holding through the reverse split 4:1). I just want out at a decent price.
Will we ever get a freaking pullback in this market????
PS I still think we should have Tyler or William start a new feature called The Daily POMO Gameshow. Contestants can win free money by answering such difficult questions as "How much do you want" and "What is your name" (note that this doesn't have to be answered precisecly: "PD" is acceptable)
Wow, you sat on that VXX play waaaay too long. Really, just sale it at any time. You are so down on that play that it would have to go up quite substantially for you to break even. If you're waiting for a complete break down like 08/09, you have a bit to go. The Fed has stuffed the feeding tube into the patient, and will keep what is dead alive for a long time.
Happy to help: the "market" you refer to, no longer exists. So therefore, events/news does not matter anymore.
Keep on pumping it up baby!!! Keep the party going!!!!
Also watch ramping input cost/margin compression announcements. Dean Foods just followed KMB with statements that input cost increases are the worse in history. Remember slv is a significant component of cost for electronics and slv is up 50% since May. This QE2, 3, 4 crap is not going to end with a smile.
Paulie from Goodfellas says "Margin Compression? Fuck you, Pay me. Problems with China? Fuck you pay me. Bad earnings? Fuck you , Pay me. Dollar rally? Fuck you, Pay me".
But wait...It's Grizzly Bitchez to the rescue!!!
Fight of the Century: Sarah Palin vs. the Federal Reservehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fight-Century-Sarah-Palin-vs-atlantic-659047734.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=
Anybody want to set the odds on who wins?
TD,
with the chinese downgrade, is there any possibility/probability that the FED does a 180 degrees and changes their mind on QE2???
Don't be surprised if they start talking about it but they can't actually do it. Never.
Im with Turd. If it is to their benefit, the Fed will push a hawk to the front for a moment, maybe to test the waters, but more than anything to pull back the reins ever so slightly. If they do not issue at least the $600 billion they said they would, Bernanke better grab his "Dow 5k" hat to keep in his briefcase.
Well, technically they can do it. But I'm in agreement that they won't. If they stop, the Ponzi collapses, and they very well know that. It's just not going to happen while Bernake and company are in charge. They are in a corner, and believe they have no other way out. There is one, but it's ugly. And we'll end up seeing it anyway. But not on Ben's watch, or so he thinks.
i think a lot of players are underestimating the chances of a tsunami of deflation. there's still a chance that all this money creation is going to go into a black hole of sorts.
the fed probably sees what others don't and i'm betting they are more than pleased with the results so far. no way they want to damage the illusion they've created.
You are right. The moment they pull it, all credibility = GONE
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-09/citigroup-rule-model-says-centr...
Man, I've got to stress this again:
THAT'S $100,000,000,000 IN CASH, DIRECTLY TO THE PRIMARY DEALERS, OVER THE NEXT MONTH!!!
Do not get in the way. You will get crushed.
One hundred billion fucking dollars. Straight into equities, 10-year and less treasuries, PMs, crude...you name it. Buy all dips. Be long through next Friday. Step away Thanksgiving week. Be long again through 12/8. Pretty simple stuff.
On or before 12/8, gold will trade through 1500, silver through 33, the Dow may approach 13000 and the Nas will make a run at 3000.
Turdvstheevilempire.com
Turd these markets are rolling over.
Jimi: Gotta disagree. The "market" is only down today because there is no POMO until Friday. Buy on Thursday because there's $43B coming in between 11/12 and 11/18.
$100fuckingB over a month? How much of that makes it into AAPL, AMZN, NFLX and the ES? $25B? $50B?
Buy all dips and rollovers. NO WAY the market goes down and stays down.
Another more infuriating way of looking at this is that the Fed will pump more into the system in one month via the primary dealers than the IRS will collect in personal income taxes during that very same month.
Just trying to cheer you up Turd. :>)
Just remember not to get too attached to anything, CD.
In the immortal words of our "founder": Be careful or the things you own will end up owning you.
I love my PMs and I love my miners but I'm confident that my joy is temporary.
Turd-Buddha, I love it!
Turd, what is your take on the 7s10's right now? Looks like they are triple-topping (IEF) to me? I'd welcome your thoughts.
Sorry, Steve, but I wouldn't even begin to pretend that I can predict bond movements. I'll leave that for those eminently more qualified.
Good for you, Turdmeister.
A Man's Got To Know His LimitationsWell put.
None of you here are better then the ones you complain so badly about! Greed all over, you all wish for the $ to get hammered into oblivion so you can gain on your PMs positions, I pity you fools, since I joined this site! By then time Paulson and Soros dump their holdings you will be left holding shit! At least hedge your "gold" with some puts on something, before you get obliterated! Jesus, some fucking greedy asses, "let's wish for apocalypse and it might happen, because we want to profit and then go out with a side arm" be very careful what you piss heads wish for! Sorry for the language but...I can only wonder where all your collective brains have gone!
Nobody is wishing for an apocalypse they just see it coming; and not by anything they've done either. I don't wish for it to thunderstorm but when the clouds are black it's probably likely.
And look at you calling the kettle black with your "hedge your bets buy puts" attitude in the paper ponzi. So you are not greedy of course...
You are a hypocrite and a fool.
Most of us are IRATE about what the Fed is doing. So how is us being happy that our PMs are surviving the death of our way of life bad? Would you suggest we sit in dollars while they are destroyed? This is not joy about making $ denominated gains in PMs. It's mild pleasure in that even when the US is a shattered husk that maybe we will have something to rebuild our lives with. PMs are not really going up, they are just showing the massive devastation of the dollar.
Might I suggest you try Yahoo's esteemed Financial Forums, then?
We will be the ones to rebuild America, fucktard. If you want to be poor, feel free. Buy all the bullshit paper you want, and watch it all burn away to nothing.
Would love to see all your faces when this market is crash-deflating! Am sure would be funny and sad at the same time. As to me "wanting" to be poor...none of us really own anything...if you can follow my thoughts, I have some doubts since you all seem to be so "mildly happy" about "rebuilding" something out of nothing! As to me being a "fucktard", well you may see me this way, I see myself rather as being SANE and well functioning. Are you people really believe a "madmax" worls is upon us? If this is the case then ZH has clearly missed its purpose, to educate and help understand what's happening! I am a very happy and contempt "fucktard", don't need to hoard tons of gold I cannot eat, sell or turn into food! I put my money where my mouth is! There seems to be no clear thought out there anymore, just "buy buy buy...gold"! I hope for you people to have enough time to sell and to whom when this "market" is coming down like a brick wall! Turd and the Paulson/Soros gang will be out long before you wake up! Sorry just my two cents!
Joe, most of us here are pretty pissed off about the way things are. Most of us are also very aware as to why and how things got the way they did, unlike our fellow citizens/residents. Most of us have tried to tell our fellow citizens/residents for years about the impending disaster befalling them to help them preserve wealth. Most of our fellow citizens/residents are too fucking brainwashed to listen or do anything about it.
So, do we just become sheep and go throught "the metal corridors into the valley of steel" (thanks Roger Waters) with the rest of them, or say FUCK YOU and do something about it?
You really were onto something when you said "we don't really own anything". You should have stopped there because you are inherently correct, at least in a material sense. Many ZH'ers however do own their sovereign space, and have not sold it or leased it to the brainwashing devices that infiltrate every second of our day. If that's all we own, then we are free men. All else is a sideshow.
well spake, stevenyc. including the roger waters ref.
MOST here don't want to see what could be the worst transpire, joe. even if we prepare accordingly it won't be fun for us and worse for friends and family that haven't.
but i am taking the side of preparing, accumulating what little wealth i can from a situation begging to be taken from, and hoping things end up reasonably well for all.
at some point people have to have at least some initiative and look after themselves and those closest to them.
That would depend upon definitions of same, of course. Since you are somewhat afraid of the unknown, it would stand to reason that you'll toe the establishment line and buy what you are "supposed" to buy. With that fear as a base I'll be kind and wish you the best.
Hey Trading Joe,
Most of us have been WARNING of this very situation for years. You think we like to see this happening? WTF is wrong with you anyway? Fuck you.
Right back @ you Piggy!
Thank you firstdivision!
PS my ass hurts....they made me put this bag over my head before they.....well, you know
well timed for the holiday season, with a slight gap during the Thanksgiving week, which is traditionally a good week for the markets. And then wham hit them hard the first week in December, because when people see the stock market go up, they shop. (in my home town the city is cutting all kinds of services, ambulance, etc, and subsidizing new corporate businesses, car dealerships, and restaurants) when will it end? when we all live in mud huts with wide screen TVs?
thats a lot of money....just how much may the stocks rise because of this??
I must now keep a roll of paper towels near my monitors to clean up the mess when drinking coffee because when I read statements like
"Hot Brian Sack Liquidity Injections"I burst into uncontrollable laughter and it creates quite a mess... This made my day...no--made my week.
Why not just go for the throat (pun intended?) and leave out "Brian", I wonder.