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In Advance Of This Week's Most Important Economic Data

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The week's most important economic data comes out in just over an hour, at 9 pm Eastern, when a battery of Chinese December datapoints are released, including the all important CPI (exp. 4.7%, 5.1% previous), GDP (9.5%, 9.6%), Industrial Production (13.3%, 13.3%), PPI (5.8%, 6.1%), and Retail sales (18.7%, 18.7%). Then again with Hu braving the barren wasteland of Chicago, it is extremely unlikely that China will continue with its symbolic slaps in the face of Bernanke's monetary policy. Or maybe it will, who knows. If inflation comes above the expected 4.7% level, then Hu will likely be forced at least bring up Bernanke's dirty laundry in public and put the blame where it deserves at least 50% to be. Luckly, we know that this most certainly will not happen. According to a central bank leak reported by Phoenix TV, CPI will come at 4.6%, while PPI will take the slack, coming just above consensus at 5.9%. Attached is detail of said leak, as well as the now traditional beatdown of Chinese economic data by Andy Xie.

From ytwhw.com

China's inflation hit 4.6% in December, pushing the full-year 2010 consumer price index up 3.3%, while the national economy grew 10.3% last year, Hong Kong-based broadcaster Phoenix TV reported on its website Wednesday, without citing any sources.

The full-year inflation rate, though above the government's annual target of around 3%, was in line with broad market expectations.

China's November CPI rose 5.1%, which was a more than two-year high.

China's producer price index, a forward indicator for inflation, rose 5.9% last year, the report said.

The report cited unidentified central bank officials as saying the economic data had been leaked, but didn't directly attribute the detailed data to these officials.

While the accuracy of this leak is irrelevant, one thing is certain: the data will be completely fabricated, as the Chinese put even our own BLS to shame. To share his most recent thoughts on what he now openly calls a giant ponzi scheme, here is perpetual China basher Andy Xie who is absolutely correct on the direction of the trade, but, as most other "realists", absolutely wrong (so far) on the timing. Regardless, something tells us that no matter how hot or cold the Chinese economy comes out today, the AUD and its sister pairs are not going to like it...

 

 


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Wed, 01/19/2011 - 20:56 | Link to Comment Racer
Racer's picture

This is all so sick, posturing by those who have so much money they still cheat and rob to get more, whilst at the same time playing with pawns who are the poor, the sick and the old and who they regard as worthless in the big game of who can be the BIGgest

As it ever was, so it will be for ever, the sheeple lose their lives so the rich can enjoy their untold wealth for ever and ever, as long as there are bodies to bleed dry the human race will be forever a predatory metaphorically cannibalistic society ...on a determined genocidal march to kill the most unfortunates around the world to feed the rich

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 21:13 | Link to Comment 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

meaningless economic data.. none of these numbers mean a damn thing.

 

 

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 21:14 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

Very well stated.

:D

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 21:30 | Link to Comment snowball777
snowball777's picture

I think you're blocking a little...tell us how you really feel.

Perhaps the sheeple shouldn't make it so damn easy for TPTB, hmmm?

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 21:39 | Link to Comment Racer
Racer's picture

Read Crowds and Power by Elias Canetti and you will see why the sheeple are 'controlled' and now even more so because those in power are even more aware of how they can control

Sheeple have to be kept in the dark and uneducated for best possible results for the elite

 

Knowledge is power and why I am so glad ZH is still free and continues to post what it does

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:19 | Link to Comment johngerard
johngerard's picture

I suggest you take a look at "the century of the self" on you tube.  4 part doc by british film maker Adam Curtis.  Superb.

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 20:58 | Link to Comment Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Why do we trust a communist country to make everything for us? The USA has gone mad.

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 21:33 | Link to Comment snowball777
snowball777's picture

Because oompa-loompas are do damn cheap?

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 21:07 | Link to Comment erik
erik's picture

Stick save in after hours as SPY closes above the close.  Not a huge deal, but don't be surprised if tomorrow ends big green.  It would start to match the Jan'10 and Apr'10 topping formations.  One or two more visits to the ~1300 range over the next week could cement the top.

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 21:22 | Link to Comment Racer
Racer's picture

People are worse than animals, at least in the jungle it is eat or be eaten, for humans it is give enough to feeble parts of society so they can be used for body parts and food for the elite

 

(Edit)

Post #888888

So this assigned recurring number for the post confirms the fact of reality forever, infinity and beyond......................

:)

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 21:36 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

congrats...

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 21:11 | Link to Comment lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

Do they sell silver and gold in China?

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 21:33 | Link to Comment sabra1
sabra1's picture

china has some of the worlds largest gold mines,  which are mined, but not declared.  china is buying euro debt,  which they know can never be repaid.  what europe does have  is tons opf gold, which china will take as payment. very smart!

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 22:14 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

to my knowledge silver production in china is / or has been reserved for themselves only.

 

look for another story after this one..

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/chinese-silver-exports-drop-40

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 21:20 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

They will be up all night to cook up numbers that won't tank the market.

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 21:25 | Link to Comment serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

Perhaps an opportunity for China to more effectively manipulate global markets.

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 21:26 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

Tyler you have to print ocrapo's speech with China today

What a pander'er. " We want to sell you stuff like cars computers washing machines ect"

The PM was thinking like "Are you fucking shitting me, why would I buy that crap that we make for your companies. We MAKE all that"

It was pathetic

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 21:29 | Link to Comment snowball777
snowball777's picture

Great Karnak says:

CPI: 5.4%

PPI: 6.4%

GDP:9.0%

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 21:45 | Link to Comment lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

That's why Chinese officials were here. They had to get together and cook the inflation book. A government bilderberg style mtg..

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 21:47 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

AUD short at the 100ma.  China is in trouble

 

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 21:51 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

Yeppers...

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 22:14 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

you see that 100ma on the daily...?  whole market is waiting for that break

hey i just won a bet on the tennis aust open Nadel 6 Sweeting 2  first set odd @$5.50xmy bet. 

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 02:51 | Link to Comment Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

Hi Orly,

I find your comments very insightful. You seem to be very knowledgeable wrt forex trading. Any books, columns, blogs, etc. that you would recommend for a novice in this area? I probably won't trade currencies but want to understand the signals.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 05:04 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

Well, thanks for the kind words but I am hardly very knowledgable about 4X trading- that is, the way one typically learns it in blogs and courses.  I taught myself how to trade by doing what you're doing now and that is (1.) read until your eyes bleed.

:D

Perhaps you may find my comments insightful because I am not afraid to put some idea out there, with adequate reason of course.  Most traders who comment on 4X are more afraid to be wrong than to get feedback.  If you're too afraid to be wrong, you probably shouldn't be trading in the first place.

(2.)  Gimme all your feedback.  Tell me why I am wrong so I can learn.

Most traders I know use the same signals that others use to trade, such as our good friend chump666 above, who says, "you see that 100ma on the daily...?  whole market is waiting for that break."  Really?  The whole market?  He's prolly right and, just like last night, when the Sino-Japanese purchase of Eurobonds drove everything right off the 100-day SMA into the stratosphere, many Euro shorts got torched.

He may be surprised to know that I don't even have an SMA on my chart.  I trade primarily with Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci retracement levels.  I didn't get burned.

In my vast perusal of 4X guru papers, I once read that (3.) the more successful traders are those that use the usual indicators but use them in unconventional ways.  Makes sense because if everyone is doing the same thing, then it is easy for a market maker to move the market with a well-timed entry or exit in volume.

For instance, I use the Center of Gravity indicator as a money-momentum indicator and, when combined with the Awesome Oscillator, certain set-ups give me great trading signals.

The trade signals in 4X are the same as any trading done anywhere.  I can take my system and trade Apple stock, corn, gold, natgas, ETFs, mutual funds- whatever.  (4.) The trading principles should be the same for anything you're trading and should apply to any time-frame.  There are no "secret signals" to trading 4X.

Another principle to trading 4X is not at all what you see on TV or the YouTube with these high-octane, foot-pumping, Red Bull-guzzling traders trading off an M1 (one minute...) chart.  Bill Poulos has a lot of good, common sense (now they're common sense but when I read it, it was an ah-ha moment...) ideas on trading 4X and you should avail yourself to all of his free material.  It's ubiquitous, so you'll find it.

His idea is (5.) not to day-trade but trade daily.  Find the trend on the Daily chart and when it is moving up, trade up unless it is near extremes in the Bollinger Bands or a major Fibonacci level.  When you locate the trend on the Daily chart, open a chart of the same currency pair, only in the M5 and then...

(6.)  Stick a robot on it.  I know 4X robots have got a bad rap in the trading world and that is simply because traders don't use them correctly.  They paste the robot onto a chart willy-nilly and walk away.  The trading algo proceeds to drain the account and the get-rich-quick schemer is ruined.  I use my algos a little differently.

Since we already know what direction the pair is trading on the Daily chart, it makes sense that any time-frame inside that, such as the M5, is going to be trading in the same direction.  All you have to do is tell the robot which direction you want it to trade, long or short, and then let it do its work.  Simple!

One robot I personally like very much is called the Forex Transporter.  It'll cost about a hundred dollars and will make its money back in about ten days.  If you get it, let me know and I can talk you through the settings.  ;)

(7.)  Use pillow-friendly lots and get rich slowly.  Pillow-friendly because the 4X market is open 24/5 so you have to sleep sometime and it is very difficult to sleep with one eye on your trade!  Hence another great use for the trading algos: they get you in the market three times as often with little increase in risk because they trade while you're sleeping.

____________

 

Well, I've talked your head off but I hope what you've read is useful to you.  In short, create your own system, according to your own style and risk-tolerance.  Just see what works for you.

Locate the trend on the Daily (admittedly quite difficult these days but it won't be like this forever...), stick a robot on it, telling it to trade either long or short (I mean if you don't know which direction the trend is, how should you expect a robot to know?) using 0.10 lots per thousand dollars available and let it go.  Check it once in the morning and once before bed to make sure the Daily trend is still the same.

Forex trading is by far the most exciting game in the world and, if done properly from the out-set, can be a relatively stress-free trading experience I know most traders would enjoy.  Definitely don't be afraid of it.

You can even try it for free.  Just go to IBFX (they prolly have a banner on this page even as we speak...), download the demo and trade.  Tell the demo you want to start with only $3000 so that you can really gauge your success or failure.

Whatever you do, best of luck trading!

:D

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 21:55 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

Andy Xie says worry about inflation, not Growth

Inflation = Growth

Signed,

The Ben Bernank

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 21:58 | Link to Comment zaknick
zaknick's picture

What I want to know is what  happened to the real Tyler Durden. This replacement guy is a wimpy imitation of our once fearless leader. I mean seriously, don't you guys notice it's not the same guy? 

WTF!!!

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 22:18 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

tyler is putting out 1,000% more PLUS bringing in 1,000% more... his venom is there.. its just got so many different places to be injected now... it used to be a few things, now its in the 10 a day... minimum.

 

Yes I junked you and thats why.

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 23:23 | Link to Comment zaknick
zaknick's picture

ooooooooooohhhhh nooooooooooooo you junked meeeeee

This is exactly what I mean. The whole quality of the site has gone down, not just the bait and switch on Durden. Now all I read is a bunch of illiterate and ignorant arguing on this once majestic blog. WTF

Lookey here redneck, go back to working as a prison guard or "law enforcement" or some such neanderthal thing.

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 21:59 | Link to Comment Rockford
Rockford's picture

According to the Tin Hat Clan, which I am a card carrying member, the Hu is not here to exchange reciepes.

http://alcuinbramerton.blogspot.com/

 

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 22:05 | Link to Comment FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

Dumb sheep, ready to be slaughtered by their overlords:

NBC/WSJ poll: Obama bouncing back

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41161439/ns/politics-more_politics/

Seriously the propaganda coming out of the U.S. these days put China/Russia/Hitler et al to shame.

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 22:08 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

4.6% CPI...as leaked.

 

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 02:48 | Link to Comment grl
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!