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After 12 Weeks Of Plunging, ECRI Reverses Downward Path, Rises
As expected last week, the ECRI Leading Indicator may have seen its lows. After hitting -10.7% last week, this week the annualized rate of change rose to -10.3% (on par with two weeks ago). Watch for the ECRI creators to suddenly change their tune and start espousing all the virtues of their index, now that it is in an upswing. Of course, the fact that it predicted a recession when it dipped below -10% is irrelevant - we have yet to leave the depression. Plus at this point it doesn't matter: today's NFP number has told us all we need to know about the future of money printing by the glorious Chairman.
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S&P down 9.43 as I type this. Lets see if this is the ramp cause.
SPY has more volume than C today, shit when was the last time C wasn't the most traded equity?
Nope. Guess not.
The ECRI after all is influenced by the S&P 500 which rose in last 2 weeks from 1022 to 1122..
its all but assured. if Fed does not proceed with QE 2.0/lite/1.99 whatever, markets will collapse. it is fully expected. gold up, yields down, dollar down, and stocks... well, down for now, but even odds we end green today.
as for ECRI - isnt the stock market itself a big component of this? if stocks hadnt raged upwards this week, wouldnt this be making new lows?
What does it all mean?
Sorry, I don't have the link. But I did read an article about there is a 73%(?) correlation between the S+P 500 and this index. It wasn't clear as to lagging, leading, etc.
The person provided no details on methdology (to determine correlation) so I don't know how reliable it is.
When do you think we will see this vid on MSM?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BB-J8JtF-lE&feature=player_embedded
Odd - the market just took a quick dive. Headfake? Que the QE?
@Turd :-)
Depends if they roll out Ms Drury in a low cut, deep plunge with added fillets.
Still hear rumours the Soc Gen Phd quants are looking into this particular indicator :>)
Looks like a B-wave pullback after a huge A-wave new high breakout to me.
Get ready for a C-wave higher into the November elections.
Do you ever get seasick?
Oldest trick in the book. Numbers don't matter until they support your belief system. Then they matter a lot. Integrity is so yesterday. The new normal is to do whatever you need to do order to keep the confidence game afloat for a little while longer.
Let's all hitch a ride with Mr. Peabody and step into his way back machine for a moment. Consider how far off the highway we have traveled. And consider that "normal" today would have been off the cliff 5 years ago. We must always be vigilant of the slow creep of normalization of the insanity.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mister_Peabody
"We must always be vigilant of the slow creep of normalization of the insanity."
+1
See for instance: WIki: Stockholm syndrome. In particular: "The hostage endures isolation from other people and has only the captor’s perspective available. Perpetrators routinely keep information about the outside world’s response to their actions from captives to keep them totally dependent."
Without an objective basis to judge the severity of a situation, reality itself becomes distorted.
+1
"Our great war is a spiritual war"
There's a highway?
Jeepers!
:-)
CNBS is pimp=pumping the crap out of their graphic showing increased jobs in all sectors! This is the most corrupt use of public airwaves in US history. Not a word about the corrupt birth-death, which should be criminal, a draining of the swamp known as the BLS should be investigated, starting with the Commissioner, A BUSH APPOINTEE!
see above
Components - which particular indicators moved?
So is it time to get my Dow 30 000 cap?
ECRWGROW is up modestly for last week - but the takeaway for me is that it's still been in decisively negative territory for a while. Having said that ... do we really care if we are on the verge of an economic "slowdown" vs. a bona-fide dip back into negative GDP growth? With reported U.6 at 16.5%, and sluggish income growth following the mother of all credit bubble implosions, it seems to me the difference is semantic. Things are still shitty for a lot of people.
Well, maybe now isn't the time to short the market.
Looks like MINUS 1391 birth-death not seasonally adjusted but they ADDED 6 jobs, in other words, they are fking liars. see bottom- here's birth-death criminal model.
http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm
It's a hold the line day.
It's a hold the line day.
QE 2.0 wont happen suddenly, they will try to get as much upside from psyops (dropping hints that its comming) before they pull the trigger
Helicopter Ben is going to allow the market to drop for three reasons.
1. People will come begging for QE 2.0 after the massacre is finished. No need to play politics when they are begging.
2. This will allow the old money to clean out the new money (i.e. hedge funds). Need to keep the trash in line.
3. After market devastation is finished, the insiders can ramp it up from a low point and make huge profits!
Ben works for Soros (Rothschilds).
Soros tanked the market to get his crew in, and he will keep it trending higher to keep that crew in power.
Economic data (no jobs) is enough to justify more QE, no market drop necessary.
Well the weekly ECRI isn't the smoothest of data series, so it could very much take a turn of the worse 3 weeks from now. Who really knows?
Since the growth in this index has already hit the -10% point anyway, I'd gather that the persistence in negative territory gains some importance. If there is a quick ECRI recovery, perhpas the economy will be in recovery mode again. If not, there will be a QE party down the hall at 33 Liberty.
agreed, last week the ECRI was at -10.7, today it is at -10.3, a "recovery" of only .4%.
if you look at the chart for the period 6/07 all the way to the bottom you will see there are many small "reversals" that occur along the way. I see absolutely no change in this economy on the ground level. The CNBC sell side spokesman telling you it is the best time to buy are simply trying to pump the market in hopes that it will stick. "reflate the bubble!"
There are certainly a lot of details like that to take into consideration.I read and understand the entire article and I really enjoyed it to be honest.
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