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After 33 Consecutive Weeks Of Outflows, ICI Reports First Inflow Into US Equity Funds As Bond Outflows Persist
The inflection point has arrived. After pulling money for 33 consecutive weeks, and withdrawing over $98 billion in capital from domestic equity mutual funds, in the week ended December 21, the Fed has finally succeeded in getting the rotation out of bonds and into stocks as per ICI. After a total of $4.4 billion was redeemed from bond funds in the same week, mostly from municipals but also $837 million from taxable bonds (still a major decline from the almost $9 billion in bond outflows the prior week), domestic equity funds saw a token inflow of $335 million, compared to last week's $2.4 billion outflow. Just enough to halt the seemingly endless outflow. Still, since the bulk of the move seems predicated upon a move out of muni bonds, with $9.5 billion in outflows in December alone, should the muni crisis accelerate, and validate the investor concern, stocks as an asset class will certainly be impaired once the muni insolvency thesis start being played out... unless of course it is met with further action from Ben Bernanke in the form of QE3, as most Zero Hedge readers believe will inevitably happen. At that point, and as always when the Fed intervenes, all bets are off, suffice to say that gold will be well over $2,000 by then.
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Sold everything except AIG & BAC. Loaded up on VXZ looking for correction soon.
Pssst. Hey man, over here, check this out. I've got a Chinese solar stock tip for you. Comes highly recommended from this greek expert in the field.
the entire insurance sector was weak today, aig included. get those traders back in here, turn those machines back on! [/Mortimer Duke]
turn those machines back on!
That has been stuck in my head for days... We will see it soon.
this is just end of the year tax maneuvering
Beware the stampede. Is this 1998 redux?
That said, long SPY puts for the near term.
An inflow of $335 million? Right before Christmas? Me thinks perhaps this number has been massaged a bit to end a streak that was slightly embarrassing to the PPT.
That was the change the Bernank found behind his couch in the Mariner Eccles building....thought it would make a good investment.....
Unfortunately it means we get to witness a Pisanigasm on the air tomorrow morning. Might as well get the limey on air too playing pivot man.
Ew. Just ew.
Sweet. Was waiting for this. Time start loading up on shorts.
I got 503ed.
Just desserts....
For the last six months, I have read about the outflow in mutual funds as being an indicator of negative market sentiment ... then I read that ETF's hit 1T. How does one measure the net effect of outflows in mutuals and inflows into ETF's?
Nimrods 'investing' for yields, AKA soylent green. My neighbor 'invested' in TBT and will not trade.
All I need for confirmation of an impending and severe correction is to see Abby Joseph Cohen's ugly mug on CNBsC and/or Bloomberg in the next day or so, saying "stocks are extremely cheap at these levels, and I've revised my 2011 year end targets upwardly," ad I'm all over that short action shit.
Gambler's coming back into the casino? Probably not. J6P can only take so much out. When everyone is at that limit, well, sure some kinda positive number will print.
I suspect this inflow will be revised outward in a few weeks a la the BLS methodology. :>)
It really doesn't matter where the "real" money is flowing anyway so long as the Fed has QE 2.0 blowing bubbles on a near daily basis. The stock market will be supported right up to the point when it won't. You can't buck the selling pressure for this long without some inside people getting very very nervous.
Algos are the majority of trades Probably algos with serious groupthink, a la flash crash.
The shorts have had their asses handed to them, they are gone. So, no bottom to the market.
QE is the market, and everyone knows they are done in June 2011.
Insiders have been dumping stocks the past 9 mos.
Housing is double dipping.
I think we are in for an off the cliff correction in Q1 2011.
You obviously missed Fast Money tonight....this shit is going into orbit next year.
I love how they are never wrong om fast money and move out of their trades before losing money.
Pure and simple Fast Money is a 60 minute infomercial for CNBC and the various Ponzi pushers who appear on the show.
[The shorts have had their asses handed to them, they are gone. So, no bottom to the market.]---spinone
I'm one of those who got their you-know-what handed to them last Fall. Shorting S&P. Discretionary money, thank goodness. Again, I underestimated the Fed's willingness to openly manipulate the market, and investor/public's willingness to go along.
Yeah, I lost that battle. I can think of a myriad of "things" I could have "bought" with my loses. I've lost other battles, financial and otherwise. I'm still here. And I'll be here long after the Fed is gone.
A lie cannot live forever.
Ditto that, I continued to think that 'at some point' the fraud would end and law would rule. Nope, there is no Sherriff and they know it. Lies can and will live forever when there is literally nobody to stop it.
Pure short term top.
Play TBT, and put the Tums aside.
The dumb money has arrived! Man the lifeboats!
'Bout time TZA was worth a CIT.
getting close to 'rinse and repeat' time. wow, retail investors are fucking gullible.
Damn. And I thought Ashton Kutcher was a major buy signal.
I was wondering what precipitated that sell off in the final 20 minutes. Criminal syndicate Wall Street bankers, sensing that anyone at all [besides themselves] was buying equities, quick hit the I'm not a bag holder button on the HFT dashboard hoping to soak Average Joe in .4 milliseconds. Roaches poured out the back of the Roach Motel as soon as the bartender there flipped the sign to "cash bar," one of them tripping on the power cord to the SPY creation units machine, causing the index to suddenly experience known market forces.
We got a nice little glimpse of what selling can do in this thin tape. Which begs the question, where are the short sellers? We used to rule this kind of wimpy volume action.
You know, it isn't about timing the index. Some very obvious stocks [previously know as leadership stocks] have been deteriorating for weeks now. Is it the case that no one remembers how to sell short? Ummmm....better learn. I rather think weak closings will soon be back in vogue.
Cdad
Selloff? I don't know why you can call it a sell off ... ES went from 1258 to 1255 then recovered to 1256 now 1256.75. A sell off to me is 1% in 15 minutes ... not happening in this market.
Frikkin rookie, a sell off is when the Dow drops 15 pts or more. Screw ES.
Just buy the fukking dip.
mynhair,
This is the second time you posted a reply to me without reading or understanding my comment. In fact, your response is perfect proof of your lack of comprehension.
I'll leave the crystal ball, prediction of the turn in the entire index up to you...while I short stocks previously known as leadership stocks that have been deteriorating for weeks. When the broader market turns lower [to a degree that pleases you], these issues will capitulate first, and then I can cover and roll over onto an index short...while you...while you are doing...I have no idea what. Posting snarky responses, I guess.
I have the crystal ball...and I say the markets are ALL a load of crap! So short the crap.
I have a full size pic of your avatar...
I email it to my ex-gal-pal every time one of her clairvoyant predictions goes wrong and tell her to check her Magic 8 Balls...
Yeah... All the EX's love me... ;>}
Cdad,
Try figuring out what an indent is. The reply wasn't to you.
If no indent shows on your screen, bitch elsewhere.
It's not all about you.
With a P/E of 71, its definitely time to get short Netflix. When companies get to P/E ratios like this on nonsensical euphoria, only bad things can happen from there.
Bear,
At the close, there was considerable selling...and today issues actually went down in response. That is why I called it a sell off. In confirmation, the SPY finished at the low of the day.
Are you with the Ministry of Definitions?
Query: How much money does one make if they buy and sell the same equity to themselves over and over, from...say $1.06 to...say...$4.80...?
well, that depends if you are paying yourself the transaction fees too. lol
How much? Ya gotta be special, and get paid for acting like a moron. Us little people aren't special; you need to ask GETCO.
...unless of course it is met with further action from Ben Bernanke in the form of QE3, as most Zero Hedge readers believe will inevitably happen.
as sure as the sun will rise and shine on that dog's ass in the morning. but i remember some people here actually believed he wouldn't be doing QE2.
Perhaps it is year-end 401-k matching money that employers are wont to do.
We saw something similar last year, as contributions spiked in the last two weeks of the year.
Kewl, money goes into this pig market; it goes down. Just like money goes out; it goes up.
Pure symmetry!
I'm getting mine out of personal retirement account through a self-directed.
I think they'll be grabbed. There's not going to be anything personal about.
Shared sacrifice.
New year. Quit, cash out retirement early, and pay only 10% tax penalty, with 99 weeks unemployment!
Yeah, this just seems like the end of year dump into personal retirement plans. Fools.
They were buying this tail since July. Look out below?
Listening to an old Levin. He reads ZH! Is discussing the disposable income that leeches get.
Inflows at the top? Will the crash be next week or the week after?
Will be no crash until the Bernank is hanging from a lamp post.
And then it's off to the J.P. Morgue.
I think I've seen historic photos from 1940's Italy to that effect. People seem to get all pissy when pipe dreams turn into pipe bombs.
+ 36 piano wire
Cheesy, nice memory! 36 all the way!
http://www.pissedonpolitics.com/mussolini.jpg
Does that mean Retail will start snapping up SPG at $100 / share and a 60 P/E?
Seriously, is retail even that stupid? Who in the hell is going to buy in at these levels?
Sorry, I can't even believe that is real.
Wasn't 'consumer confidence' at a low? Are people cashing out their home equity? Are they investing their unemployment and welfare checks?
This is bullshit.
If new home sales go full on retard negative, as in banks tearing them down to cut carrying costs, KB Homes, Beazer, Pulte & the rest will surely rally towards 1,000x P/E ratios!
We know that The Ben Bernank will buy REITs at 150 P/E levels (trailing, and only for the 2000 through 2006 time frame, as recent events have put true P/E levels into negative territory), but will The Tim Geithner & The PPT agree on rubberstamping that same purchase at 5,000x?
Boilermaker,
I was just looking at SPG today, in fact. She is a prime short sale candidate. January. On some stupid, vertical spike in the morning. Done.
How about puts??
Won't be that much longer now....load up on Gold and Silver. Stock up on food and toilet paper. Get your gun license in order. Buy shotgun shells....Pray...
Load up on AVL, dammit!
I'm back in. Sure hope it ain't owned by solar-powered Chineemen.
Go LDK! To hell!
And take Leo wif ya! (Don't want Leo to feel left out.)
Where the frick is Robo with the IRE chart? After dissing it so bad.
Was definitely a 'buy' signal.
today was my top indicator
at least temp, I break the things into channels and resistance lines. using these measurements we are as far away from the channel as we have ever gotten since the rebound. it doesn't mean we don't go higher, but we haven't gotten any further away from the channel and he just hit the resistance line. each time we have hit this line at the current upswing we have also had the ultimate target is s and p of 1300
sorry, saying we dropped back to top of channel after hitting this resistance
Yep, odds are good the S&P drops 2 frigging points. Big whoop.
hey I put my money where my mouth is, seen europe today. LOL
All Ords on fire tonight....
IRE! Dammit! And you laughed at it; you, you bulltard.
did you catch the volume on bac today?
the price action on nflx?
the fail is strong with this one.
http://i302.photobucket.com/albums/nn111/JTninja/Fail_Is_Strong.jpg
So THAT'S why the Build America Bond program wasn't renewed...
Anything you buy is build china program.
Trade deficit!
Some pretty zany movements across the board today . Kiwi had a ridiculous rally against the Dollar , Aussie broke to new highs and USD/JPY is capitulating . Quite a disconnect between the high yielders and S&P futures over the last few hours as well . Can't see anything that would warrant this USD selling but I suppose that's what wafer thin liquidity and silly "risk on" trading conditions will do . Who would be looking to enter a carry trade on NZD/USD or AUD/USD with both these currencies / correlated equities so overextended ?
It seems to me that you have to have faith in your convictions. The so called "equity inflow" wasn't much really. Perhaps it's year end retirement plan money or maybe some retail investors are dipping a toe. Doesn't really matter to me anyway. I'm out.......I have to admit it's annoying to see this market up day after day though.
Summation still in an uptrend. Shorting is futile.
Robo, shorting MCP is definitely possible. BennieBucks are still skittish over production numbers.
Nikkei just testing resistance right? The equity market is not going to move down from here, right?
Thanks for the chart Robo, and I think you are right. Not time to short yet.
As you have said, I learned a long time ago when not to short. This market still wants to go up.
O/T, but Healthcare is screwed since 3rd party payer got in. Wife works in the field. 15 people spent at least an hour a piece to find this member is termed on 12/31, to determine a 1/3/11 procedure.
All should pay one price at time of service, then submit to insurance. Worked forever, until Libs showed up.
Bureaucracy ruins everything.
Perhaps if someone were to instead just buy the insurance receivables from a medical provider... call em RxBS, then bundled em up, had em rated and sold em...maybe have a registry to track the insurance carrier that attached to the receivables...
"I'm from the government, and I'm here to help."
This is the turn point, where stocks begin their collapse, and interest rates begin to soar. The sad part is Benny couldn't get DOW 36,000 in place before the collapse.
The Bernanke may have not been able to have gotten the 11,700 NOMINAL on the board, last seen in 2000.
And if so, after trillions in anyones' monies who actually works (real work; not designing derivative products and other such silliness) for a living and pays taxes, with the side dish of inflated/over-priced/more-than-they-would-have-cost goods w/out Keynesian uber-madness, that would just be a ride on the U.S.S. Epic Failboat, of which The Ben Bernank may outdo the captain of the Hindenburg or Titanic.
Well, Gopher did become a congressman, so...
China PMI came in light. All systems still go for QE3.
Wow BDI is on the collapse. Not looking too good. I wonder how much longer they can keep this ponzi scheme afloat.
CNBC meet ZH
Looking for TLT call spreads
If I didn't know any better I might begin to think there is something about this number thirty-three.
if you folks haven't figured out trading this hft shit market it is designed to scalp as much money from you as it can. it breaks below trned and when you'd expect it to break and are loaded up short it jumps higher on a short covering rally, and then drops. this markket is designed to skin you alive and have the quant also's earn as much as they can. so there is a couple ways of trading. hourly macd with rsi, the daily may show when you are close to an inflection point, but it then always crosses over then then jumps back up so you get burned.
so you better have done a lot of very good charting and figured out how the computers are working because they do almost the opposite of humans. very often instead of dropping to the next level they trigger a sop loss where they should go, then ramp up. so if you put stop losses at the low of the day, you will get triggered it may drop a bit, then turns up so you will have a loosing trade.
so you better draw those trend lines (hourly) and be prepared to trade the line. there are almost no gaps down any more. although there are sure as hell gaps up. the other thing know the fed schedule 10:30 to 12:30 and that there are a whole group of traders that trade in the am, leave and trade 2 to four. so you have to loot to take your short somewhere about 3:30 pm using rsi, the channel and hourly macd.
the speed lines are great, but you have to trade like a computer and that is a learned skill.
I hope it works for you!
Beating the computer is kindof like trying to beat the
dealer in Vegas isn't it. Damn hard to do.
I long for free markets!
There are only a couple posts referencing the constant inflow of payroll deductions to 401k's. Those over 50 have the opportunity to make lump sum contributions and many do so at the end of the year. Granted, not all of that money is going to make it into stocks, a portion will go to bond funds too.
How much of the fund outflow is due to people loosing their jobs, cashing out their 401k's and then skipping the house payment to buy christmas crap?
I know where the inflows are now coming from:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/laurarozen/1210/Virginia_bank_robber_sport...
I have updated my long term gold chart...
Yikes.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
Yeah, Yikes - but not for the reason you may be implying. Hyperinflation has already set in, but only the PM markets know it yet.
give it a rest, chart junky. this is not a retail stock chart, it is a fundamental shift in the value of fiat money as it relates to precious metals. any technical breaks to the downside will simply result in weak hands passing their gold to strong hands. hence, the 'bear raids'. get a clue.
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/fiat-paper-bubble-run-your-lives
That's got to be a sell signal, no?