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After Expectations A Modest Improvement, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index Crashes To -21, From -4 Prior, Exp. Of -2.5
If you thought volatility in stocks was beyond ridiculous, we hope you have been keeping an eye out on what happens to the US economy when the central planning bureau takes over. Case in point: the Dallas Fed Manufacturing index of General Business Activity was just released, and it is a stunner: after coming in at -4 in June, and expectations were for a gradual improvement in July to -2.5, the actual released number was -21! And of course after the usual downward revisions as per page 1 of the Chinese data presentation manual, in which superfluous zeros for negative numbers are strongly encouraged to be eliminated , this will likely end up being something like -210 when it is revised next month. But the market does not care: after all it can pretend Americans are buying homes until next month's revision indicates that new homes sales in June were actually a negative (is it possible? who cares - not Cisco routers).
From the Dallas Fed:
Texas Manufacturing Activity Remains Sluggish
Texas
factory activity rebounded slightly in July, according to business
executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production
index, a key indicator of state manufacturing conditions, rose from –2
to 5, suggesting output expanded slightly in July after contracting in
June.
Several indexes for factory activity continued to fall in July. The new orders and growth rate of orders indexes pushed deeper into negative territory, indicating a further contraction of demand. The index for capacity utilization dipped to –1, its first negative reading in nine months. The shipments index stabilized in July, rising from –9 to –1, with nearly equal shares of respondents noting an increase or decrease.
The general business activity
index fell sharply to –21, its lowest level since July 2009. Thirty-one
percent of firms reported a worsening of activity, up from 22 percent
in June. The company outlook
index also fell to a 12-month low, as only 13 percent of manufacturers
said their outlook had improved over the previous month, compared with
24 percent who said it had worsened.
The employment index edged up and was positive for the fifth consecutive month, with 20 percent of firms reporting new hires. The wages and benefits
index also rose, but overall wage pressures remained minimal, as 90
percent of respondents noted no change in compensation costs. The hours worked index dipped into negative territory, with 23 percent of manufacturers reporting a decrease in the average employee workweek.
The index for raw materials prices
fell from 30 in June to 12 in July, suggesting the upward pressure on
raw materials prices continued to moderate. Two-thirds of manufacturers
reported no change in input costs, the highest share in six months.
Downward pressure on finished goods prices intensified again in July, driving the index further into negative territory. The future raw materials prices index remained positive but slid to its lowest level in a year, while the future finished goods prices index fell to zero.
Optimism regarding firms’ six-month outlook continued to wane in July, although the indexes remained positive. The future production, capacity utilization and shipments indexes fell again this month, while the future indexes for new orders and growth rate of orders inched up but remained below the levels seen earlier this year. The future general business activity index decreased but remained in positive territory. The future company outlook index moved down from 22 to 16, with 32 percent of respondents expecting improved conditions six months from now.
The
Dallas Fed conducts the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey monthly to
obtain a timely assessment of the state’s factory activity. Data were
collected July 13–21, and 99 Texas manufacturers responded to the
survey. Firms are asked whether output, employment, orders, prices and
other indicators increased, decreased or remained unchanged over the
previous month.
Survey
responses are used to calculate an index for each indicator. Each index
is calculated by subtracting the percentage of respondents reporting a
decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When the share of
firms reporting an increase exceeds the share of firms reporting a
decrease, the index will be greater than zero, suggesting the indicator
has increased over the prior month. If the share of firms reporting a
decrease exceeds the share reporting an increase, the index will be
below zero, suggesting the indicator has decreased over the prior
month. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an
increase is equal to the number of firms reporting a decrease.
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The "preparations" for a bad GDP number to be released 30 July - I expect slightly negative. That will embolden the double-dippers and drop equities world-wide.
Be prepared.
Given the unquestionable manipulation of economic numbers and markets, the only way I can see the government allowing a negative GDP number on the 30th is so it can post a positive number Oct. 30 just before the elections. "See, see? Things are getting better!"
Almost there. The GDP figure will be pumped, and later significantly (and silently) downwards revised, so they can claim growth in next quarter as well.
At least that's how Gordon Brown did it here in the UK, in the run up to the election.
Didn't help him much did it? And it wont help Obama either.
Probably it will be something between 1% and 1.5% (positive)
Second quarter was just the slowdown. Recession only in the third quarter.
No effing way the Ministry of Truth allows a negative GDP print leading into the mid-term elections.
Whatever torture to the data the Bureau of Making Shit Up must do, and no matter how laughably silly and unbelievable will be the eventual result, 3Q GDP will print positive.
And thanks to basket of goods substitution, inflation will be held down at 1%, though it will expect the populace to live exclusively on baked beans and chocolate pudding.
Nonsense, only the *best for my family.
* Hot Pockets
I'm sorry, I'm not expert in Texas industrial output but it seems to me numbers in some way show problems with offshore drilling. I imagine that big chunk of Texas industrial output is directed at servicing oil industry. I bet there are people around at ZH who know how the situation really looks like. I'm not saying that everything is rosy but this drop is a bit too big.
on Bizarro World called Htrae, up is down, etc
When no inflation exists everything is more expensive..
I like it, couple more:
When nobody is hiring, there is no unemployment
When earnings are low, stocks are cheap
When GDP falls, our nation prospers
...
Not to forget "debt is prosperity".
-210..LMAO!!
This should be ignored like all other evidence of economic stagnation...like the bulls says "this is already priced into the market"...in other words keep on buying like there is no tomorrow.
The "magic" the biased bulls use is that there's always ten thousand reasons for the market to go up and only one reason for it to go down.
Hum, Tyler, are you short 1100 calls? You seem particularly bitter today.
Still, LMAO, so thanks.
FYI all, Chicago Fed data is also shit.
http://www.businessinsider.com/chicago-fed-june-2010-7
(although, as usual, the kids at clusterfuck have misunderstood what is happening. Chicago NAI negative means growth is 'below trend', not negative)
friends don't let friends trade stocks sober.
Ho!Tyler, I'll drink to that.
#blue thumb#
Deutsche Bank in London likes this.
#blue thumb#
(allegedly)
ZH must be short everything. All they do is post justification for their doom and gloom projections.
But the smart money doesn't give a damn about the hole digging, gold sucking losers here.
Just look at the market - up 70 POINTS MOFOs!!!!! What do I keep telling you morons living in your mother's basement?? BUY YOU FOOLS!!! But no - another article that basically says "SEEE!!!! I AM RIGHT!!! THE MARKETS SHOULD BE FALLING!!! THEY MUST BE MANIPULATED!!!! WAH!!! WAH!!! MOMMY - MAKE THE MARKETS STOP GOING UP!! I'M RIGHT DAMMIT!! I'M ALWAYS RIGHT!!!
Keep posting this crap; I think I'll watch CNBC and make some more MONEY!!!!!
My motto losers: Life is hard; it's harder when you're stupid!
Keep watching CNBC; they will teach you how to make FAST MONEY.
See below for what was posted above Internet Tough Guy by "No Mas" because it's gonna disappear real soon and no one will know what the fine upstanding intelligent person was spitting.
----------------------------------------------------
by No Mason Mon, 07/26/2010 - 11:35
#488607
ZH must be short everything. All they do is post justification for their doom and gloom projections.
But the smart money doesn't give a damn about the hole digging, gold sucking losers here.
Just look at the market - up 70 POINTS MOFOs!!!!! What do I keep telling you morons living in your mother's basement?? BUY YOU FOOLS!!! But no - another article that basically says "SEEE!!!! I AM RIGHT!!! THE MARKETS SHOULD BE FALLING!!! THEY MUST BE MANIPULATED!!!! WAH!!! WAH!!! MOMMY - MAKE THE MARKETS STOP GOING UP!! I'M RIGHT DAMMIT!! I'M ALWAYS RIGHT!!!
Keep posting this crap; I think I'll watch CNBC and make some more MONEY!!!!!
My motto losers: Life is hard; it's harder when you're stupid!
Of course the market is ALWAYS rational isn't it? The market NEVER has sudden phase-change behavior due to complex non-linear feedback, where it swings rapidly between chaotic strange attractors does it? The crash of 2008 where the bulls were decimated was an anomaly that will NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN. And this data should be ignored as irrelevent right?
http://www.consumerindexes.com/
Go back to "making money with Cramer"
Seriously, you don't have to keep posting on here, you've already convinced us you are an idiot.
No mas.
Based on this post, I am going to buy some stawks right now.
The bankers need my money more than I do, apparently.
No Mas how's that paper stock training goin for ya? Soon ready to actually buy a real stock? You'll open your ETrade account and buy right at the moment the BS markets unhinge and plunge, no doubt.
It's a marathon not a sprint.
You Fast Money Trader, you.
"It's a marathon not a sprint."
You bet. A few of the best money managers out there suggest that, "it is unreasonable to expect gains year in year out." I have seen the numbers and for those periods that are flat - they are more than made up for along the way. My old manager had me convinced that, "all in all the time" was the only way to capture maximum gains in the long run. He was wrong, and, will be explaining he and his company's position at arbitration.
This NO MAS guy sounds like a more rabid version of my old manager. Is that you, fucker? Hey, see you in arb.
The WSJ has a good piece out today regarding faliscious, sausage making secrets. Nothing new for ZH crew.
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/110154/ten-stock-market-myths-that-just-wont-die?mod=bb-budgeting&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=
No Mas, your account must be down big time. That's just too much angry emotion (not to mention f'ing-CAPITAL-screaming letters) for you to be a winner. How does your Mommy's basement look, dude? I'll bet the walls are covered with crap you've flung like a monkey.
Thanks for the entertainment.
First time your horse has led all the way to the half son? Well done. Keep up the good work.
No Mas = either the guy who was picked on in high school constantly or another gambler who doesn't know when to shut up.
I think No Mas is Johnny "Master Bates" Bravo. Probably forgot his password and had to create a new handle.
"I think No Mas is Johnny "Master Bates" Bravo."
Johnny maturbates, no mess. Bravo! That has a nice ring to it.
Now, I know your either joking or insane.
Are you and Harry Wanger brothers?
In all fairness, Harry has changed his tune the past few months... No Mas is in a class of his own...
I wonder what the all time record for being junked is here on ZH?
"My motto losers: Life is hard; it's harder when you're stupid!"
I applaud you for using the correct form of "you're". It doesn't happen very often around here.
I'm afraid the remainder of your post hasn't much merit though. With the market being up only 70 points today, considering the volume, I'm not sure that is worthy of some victory dance. As I recall, the flash crash dropped through -70 in under 45 seconds?
On second thought, that 70 points could turn out to be quite a bonanza if you're a day trader. I think a lot of the folks that visit here are people with a regular 9-5 doing real work, and just wondering what to do with their IRA's and 401K's. We don't have the option of market timing - besides, the transaction fees would suck up any profit made from flipping stocks on a whim.
Hope you are all prepared for another event like Friday to break above 200DMA. "To the moon Alice".
So we all know there's no Au in GLD.
And no meat in McDies.
And no balls on OB.
And no jobs in the USSA.
So it is not a stretch to say that there is NO economy.
It is a wasteland, just waiting for the Wile E. Coyote moment:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hz65AOjabtM
In the cascading events of the video, please reflect upon how our situation and the cascades that have been set up for us (by us) are so much alike.
The world has gone mad today
And good's bad today,
And black's white today,
And day's night today . . .
From Anything Goes (1934)
I've clicked the Cramer bobblehead 9 times to do my part in enhancing ZH revenue. That smirky picture of him on the ZH site gives me the creeps.
He's hiding out in plain sight.
To repeat my comment from the previous thread:
The news don't matter!
Obviously ZH relishes financial news and that's fine. But boys and girls - don't make the mistake to assume that sugar coated crap news will affect the market one way or the other once investor/traders have already made up their mind about the direction the want the tape to go. Good news will be celebrated, bad news sugar coated and horrible news ignored.
BTW - this is nothing new - the Sophists have always been running the arena. The market becomes what it wants to become.
Well, that certainly goes a long way toward explaining what's going on with Fraud Street today.
I guess "gee, I suppose we really are on the next leg down in this depression" is bullish.
Yea until the market does its next whiplash turn down then you'll come around and say 'see, I told ya to sell!'
Why do spreads seem to be kind of whacky on equities today?
Has QE2 already begun? This is getting eerily similar to last fall. Sprott said in the King interview posted on zh, that QE2 "may" have already begun based on his observations of the fed balance sheet.
Wow, That's bad news. Will this affect the Antenna on my IPhone? No? Good. Time to buy stocks.
Not one mention of the Dallas Fed index on TV today. They used to love these indexes when the green shoots were in bloom. They were some of Kudlow's favorite 'mustard seeds'.
Look at the bond market ... it's telling you all you need to know... it's like a rock. As usual, it's going to take the sane, rational fixed income traders (ahem, thank you) to show the way here isn't it. As usual the stock monkeys blissfully ignorant to the approaching storm. Hummm... when will these guys learn.
10 yr Govt bonds reached 4% for a day in June of 2009! and have been heading lower since, thats how smart the Bond Mkt is. It saw
a year in advance the rally was temporary..were going to see low 2's on the 10.s
& the SP daily chart looks like a rising wedge pattern? this should end in reversal down.
Euro resistance at 130..has been bumping up against it for days.. if it doesn't break through , reversal also.
were at the crossroads.
Unfortunately, it seems that debt is the new propensity....
sploink