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After Getting a Glimpse of the New Windows Phone 7 Functionality, RIMM is Looking More Like a Short Play
About two weeks ago I warned my readers and subscribers not to count Microsoft out of the smart phone fray (Don’t Count Microsoft Out of the Ultra-Mobile Computing Wars Just Yet).
They succumbed to big company-itis like many other monopolies, but you
don’t survive two technology paradigm shifts by being a slouch. Now
upon the eve of the third major paradigm shift in as many decades (an
unprecedented pace of popularly accepted technological advance of which
relatively few grasp the potential and staggering consequences), we
finally have Microsoft taking things seriously as Google and Apple
continue to eat MSFT’s lunch.
The ability to fully and
functionally integrate with Office 2010 (as well as legacy versions),
X-Box Live, and Zune Marketplace are levers that Microsoft should have
used to take over the smart phone space years ago. They didn’t, they
fumbled the ball like a butter-laden fair maiden with extra greasy
finger tips. They also, apparently, have learned their lesson. Take a
gander at the capabilities illustrated in the videos below…
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?Windows Phone 7 XBox Live 3D Game Play Demo 00:45 |
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01:46 Windows Phone 7 – Emails, Events and Schedule Integration |
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Now,
to be honest, Android 2.1 on an HTC Evo can do much of this (ex. the
Office compatibility with a $15 app download, smart sense sharing,
etc.) save the Xbox Live stuff (this will probably be an industry best,
and first) and Zune Marketplace functionality (the Zune HD marketplace
is the best cloud/desktop based music solution available, it is just
that it is a proprietary ecosystem). This looks to be some real
competition for Android. Apple’s iPhone 4 doesn’t come near this level
of functionality, but it does have a slick Office app, the same vendor
that supplies the Android one. The only variable in this race is 3rd
party/vendor app development where Apple reings supreme in the mobile
space, followed by Android. Many forget that MSFT still owns the
largest application pool in the world (the desktop) and if execcuted
correctly can leverage it (something it has failed to do to date). MSFT
has primed the pump by offering cash incentives and revenue guarantees
to Windows 7 mobile developers in an attempt to play catch up.
to be honest, Android 2.1 on an HTC Evo can do much of this (ex. the
Office compatibility with a $15 app download, smart sense sharing,
etc.) save the Xbox Live stuff (this will probably be an industry best,
and first) and Zune Marketplace functionality (the Zune HD marketplace
is the best cloud/desktop based music solution available, it is just
that it is a proprietary ecosystem). This looks to be some real
competition for Android. Apple’s iPhone 4 doesn’t come near this level
of functionality, but it does have a slick Office app, the same vendor
that supplies the Android one. The only variable in this race is 3rd
party/vendor app development where Apple reings supreme in the mobile
space, followed by Android. Many forget that MSFT still owns the
largest application pool in the world (the desktop) and if execcuted
correctly can leverage it (something it has failed to do to date). MSFT
has primed the pump by offering cash incentives and revenue guarantees
to Windows 7 mobile developers in an attempt to play catch up.
Nokia
and RIMM are in trouble, for like MSFT and unlike Apple and Google,
they have had a big problem executing in the smartphone/GUI space. The
iPhone and Android gains are coming at the expense of MSFT, Nokia and
RIMM – and Nokia and RIMM don’t have the rich pool of tech (and cash)
to recreate themselves like MSFT does. MSFT has a chance in hell, at
this pace Nokia and RIMM do not. They will be forced to adopt, en
masse, either the Windows 7 platform, Android, or both. If they do,
then their goes those Apple margins for the competition will be intense.
If they don’t, then RIMM files for bankrutpcy and Nokia becomes a
niche player. RIMM’s OS is simply inferior, period, as is their
hardware. Nokia makes kick-ass hardware, and they try hard with thier
newly opensourced Symbian 3, but it is constantly a step behind
Android, which is brand spanking new and already the most advanced
mobile OS (possible except for Windows Mobile 7). Apple has its core
following and exception design, but it is getting its ass kicked in
terms of functionality, though.
and RIMM are in trouble, for like MSFT and unlike Apple and Google,
they have had a big problem executing in the smartphone/GUI space. The
iPhone and Android gains are coming at the expense of MSFT, Nokia and
RIMM – and Nokia and RIMM don’t have the rich pool of tech (and cash)
to recreate themselves like MSFT does. MSFT has a chance in hell, at
this pace Nokia and RIMM do not. They will be forced to adopt, en
masse, either the Windows 7 platform, Android, or both. If they do,
then their goes those Apple margins for the competition will be intense.
If they don’t, then RIMM files for bankrutpcy and Nokia becomes a
niche player. RIMM’s OS is simply inferior, period, as is their
hardware. Nokia makes kick-ass hardware, and they try hard with thier
newly opensourced Symbian 3, but it is constantly a step behind
Android, which is brand spanking new and already the most advanced
mobile OS (possible except for Windows Mobile 7). Apple has its core
following and exception design, but it is getting its ass kicked in
terms of functionality, though.
Examples of what is to come in the next month or two (I’m sorry, but there’s nothing from RIMM worth noting that I’m aware of):
The Nokia N8 with a 12 megapixel camera with Carl Zeiss lens and optical zoom
 08:12 |
 03:59 |
The
Altek Leo 14 MP Camera Phone with a true optical zoom, Android 2.1, and a 2.3 inch sensor (the same as in your high-end point and shoot cameras)  01:39 |
| Nokia N8 – Promo Video | CNET Asia hands-on with the Altek Leo |
And
my current favorite, as well as my personal and business use phone –
the HTC Evo vs the iPhone 4. If you remember, I was the first one in
the blogoshpere to state withtout a doubt that the Evo totally
outclasses the iPhone 4 (I feel the Cnet crew is pro-Apple biased, and
they still picked the Evo over the iPhone 4). This is so much more
important than Android vs Apple fanboi battles. The iPhone represents
70% of Apple’s revenues and Apple is currently priced for perfection.
Look at the competition coming up, factor in the fact that the Evo
already kicks the iPhone’s ass, and you do the math. I will offer an
explicit scenario analysis of how many Android etc. phones need to sell
to collapse the Apple share price (for subscribers) shortly.
my current favorite, as well as my personal and business use phone –
the HTC Evo vs the iPhone 4. If you remember, I was the first one in
the blogoshpere to state withtout a doubt that the Evo totally
outclasses the iPhone 4 (I feel the Cnet crew is pro-Apple biased, and
they still picked the Evo over the iPhone 4). This is so much more
important than Android vs Apple fanboi battles. The iPhone represents
70% of Apple’s revenues and Apple is currently priced for perfection.
Look at the competition coming up, factor in the fact that the Evo
already kicks the iPhone’s ass, and you do the math. I will offer an
explicit scenario analysis of how many Android etc. phones need to sell
to collapse the Apple share price (for subscribers) shortly.
More in this series…
- There Is Another Paradigm Shift Coming in Technology and Media: Apple, Microsoft and Google Know its Winner Takes All
- The Mobile Computing and Content Wars: Part 2, the Google Response to the Paradigm Shift
- An Introduction to How Apple Apple Will Compete With the Google/Android Onslaught
- Don’t Count Microsoft Out of the Ultra-Mobile Computing Wars Just Yet
- This article should drive the point home: An iPhone 4 Recall Will Hurt Apple More By Opening Additional Opportunity for Android Devices Than Increased Expenses
- A First in the Mainstream Media: Apple’s Flagship Product Loses In a Comparison Review to HTC’s Google-Powered Phone
I
will be posting a detailed description of Apple’s business and
strategic model (the type of techno-financial-ananytical stuff that you
will be hard pressed to find on the web) as well as where I feel they
are very vulnerable in the next 24 to 48 yours, with an extra special
bonus mini-model for subscribers.
- advertisements -
Reggie,
My understanding is RIMM has two new devices being released Tuesday next week.
As a former Microsoft employee in the mobile division, I have to say your intuition is flat-out wrong. When you use the device, you will scream and beg for an iPhone or a Droid. Blackberries are a piece of crap, but better than windoze. Blackberry has no mobile strategy except push email from exchange
My Nokia 6700 Classic actually allows me to speak with people who on the other side of the globe. Can this Microsoft phone do THAT?! I doubt it.
Speaking of potential... every percent that Apple claws from the computing world in general is huge. So I can't see them not growing for the next year.
I see much downside in google though surprisingly I do see some upside to a properly marketed and designed Windows Phone 7 Phone. Though a better name could help too.
Microsoft exists today only because of its two cash cows, Office and OS/server licensing. Yes, Xbox is a limited "success" in the consumer space, but only after losing over $5B to get there. What other company could have (or would have) sustained those losses? This speaks of a management team that is incompetent, and a board of directors that is largely useless. Why would I want to invest in a company with clueless management when their cash cows are looking more vulnerable every day?
Rogerwilco
I thought MS lost money on the Xbox hardware but made a profit liscensing games.
Many video game companies lose money on the hardware to then make it up in software/licensing. Same with cell phone hardware sold by a provider, they give the phone away cheap yet make it up with a 2 year contract.
@Gully
A loss is a loss. Yes Xbox is barely profitable now, but it will be years before those initial losses are recouped by the miniscule profits from licensing games. Ballmer pisses away shareholder equity like no other CEO I know. He gets away with it because 1) the board of directors is asleep, and 2) the cash cows backstop all of his dumb decisions.
So!?? Google exists because of its search ad revenue cas cow. Apple exists because it sells designer hardware. Every company has a strong point that it relies on. This is a game of chess and it appears as if MSFT's moves are too subtle for some to grasp easily.
The reason why MSFT was willing to sustain losses to get the Xbox up to the number 1 (or 2) spot is because it introduces them directly and physically into the consumer living room. This is something that both Apple (failed thus far with Apple TV) and Google (we shall see, with Google TV) have yet to do despite both spending a lot of money trying. Xbox is profitable now, and in the living room, and is a category leader. What do you think happens when they starte cross marketing and tying media sharing and social networking technology into a device that is already in the living room and on practically every desktop in both the home and the office?
There is a lot of potential here, the key is (again) management's execution.
Yes, execution is the key. Let's see, Apple introduced iPod in 2001, and MSFT gave us the SPOT watch and Xbox. Ipod was profitable from day one -- how's that SPOT watch working out? Google monetized online advertising with a clever win-win strategy while Steve Ballmer watched MSN lose billions of dollars.
Where are the examples of MSFT management doing their job well?
You can't be serious. MSFT makes more money than nearly Apple and Google combined and your asking where the evidence is of their doing well? MSFT is multiples more diversified than either company. 70% of Apples profits come from ONE product that is under assualt by superior competitors. Come on...
I didn't say MSFT wasn't profitable -- I said those profits weren't the result of good management. The market is smarter than all of us. One look at MSFT since Ballmer took over tells the true story. Overlay the charts since 2001, it's damn ugly.
Ok.. I was sent a droidx to review from verizon as I write a technology blog that is light on technology and big on whatever I feel like writing about.
Anyway, the difference between Android and the iPhone is that the droidx feels like a computer acting at times like a phone. It also came with a bunch of cr-rappware that I dont' need or want... sort of looks like a new PC with all that shit and popping windows, reminders, etc.
Plus the hardware buttons are not intuitive and not nearly as nice as the iPhone one button.
Anyway, Apple is still selling a ton, the iPad has been great, great, great. Amazing little device that I can give anyone to consume some net. Perfect!
Long AAPL baby...
cheers
jimijon
I thought the Android could be tethered but the Iphone can't. Also the Iphone doesn't multitask, where the Android does.
I saw where there was a hidden tethering Easter egg in an Iphone app but that was quickly stopped by Apple.
Wiith the recent decsions that would mean Iphones could be tethered correct?
The utter beauty of AAPL products is their transparency. Technology needs to be as transparent as a garage door opener; you use it without considering it technology. One picks up an AAPL product and starts using it. Sure, there are all kinds of nifty things built in that geeks can discover and delight in, but the average human can use their products right out of the box.
The problem with Reggie's analysis is that the AAPL devotees are buying into an integrated universe of technology. No single "better" product without an accompanying universe is going to draw AAPL users.
And once in the AAPL universe, one never wants to go back.
Sorry, Reggie.
Apple users are the minority of the universe. The future is not in drawing Apple users, but all of the other users. It is also a myth that Apple products are easier to use than others. The iPhone 4 is not easier to use than the HTC Evo, and is much more limited in scope as well.
And another rebuttal, I know of quite a few iPhone 3, 3gs and 4 owners making the Android switch. The need to have the best, brightest shiniest thing works against the Apple mantra as effectively as it works for it.
Try the Evo and see if you still feel the same way.
Friend of mine just got an Evo. He dumped his home internet connection and uses it as a hotspot at home. Very cool feature since unlike most of the other crap they pack into these phones, this one actually saves you real money.
Send me one to review! :-)
Or maybe after I write this one I can coax one out of Verizon.
cheers
The field is getting more crowdy - Apple, Rimm, Google and now Microsoft. Good for us users....
cell phones are just platforms: like television sets and computers. They should be free to anyone. The stuff you buy to make them work like software you pay for; or in the case of cell phones apps.
If that's the case, then you should give away free cell phones then.
Msoft is clueless when it comes to designing consumer products. I have two HTC phones using Msoft operating systems sitting in my closet. I also have a few GPS products with similar operating system software. What total pieces of trash. I switched to a Nokia smart phone and never looked back.
What kind of morons think you can sell a smart phone with no inherent capability to back up it's data, apps or phone book? The sync software they offer is a useless piece of crap that you can only use on two PCs. It only backs up your contact list if it is the same as on your PC Outlook Folder. You are screwed if you don't use Outlook or want to back up other data or your apps. Apple and Nokia provide new updates to their "sync" software all the time. I can totally back up my Nokia phone contacts, messages, data and apps to multiple PCs before I upgrade the operating system or to transfer data to a new phone. Apple even does it better.
What kind of morons think you can sell a phone with buggy software and then never offer fixes to get rid of the bugs. At best you might get one software update for the life of the phone. Apple and Nokia provide new operaing system updates all the time for even their old phones. Msoft wants you to buy a new phone every two years and they make your old phone useless.
What kind of morons think you can offer a cellphone with a user phone book interface that is painful to use. Try to call someone with one hand with a Msoft touch phone without using a stylus and two hands. Try to call someone in less than 10 seconds. I can make calls with my Nokia in less than 5 seconds.
Try to use the pathetic touch screen on a Msoft phone. What total crap. I ended up adding a Chinese program to enable limited finger gesturing. Why was this capability not in the phone to begin with?
Try to surf the web on a Msoft phone. You will want to commit suicide.
Msoft should fire every clueless moronic person they have in their portable products division. I would not want them to even design a flashlight....
I disagree. I had the HTC Touch Pro 2 with Windows mobile 6.1/HTC sense and it was the most productive phone I ever had save the new Evo. I was able to do everything that you said you couldn't do with ease. When integrated with Exchange server, you are constantly mirrored.
I have full Exchange Server functionality on my Nokia. I got very tired of carrying a work and personal phone at the same time. I want my personal life, contacts ..etc different than my business life. I don't want my full work contact and email data mirrored on my one phone. Trying to go page through hundreds of work contacts just to call a friend is not my idea of fun. The requirement to have MS Office Outlook loaded on your PC to back up your contacts is beyond moronic.
You totally ignored the lack of backup for apps, SMS and MMS messaging and personnal data using Msoft sync. What about the total lack of updates to fix bugs? How is it Nokia knew this over a decade ago and Apple improved on it?
Well, I keep personal and work email on the same phone with different accounts. I use Kerio mailserver to mirror everything. You can get the same effect with gmail.
I've never had the need to back up apps because I stuck to the custom install on the client with everything else in the cloud. I agree that MSFT let the 6.xx series flag, which was expected because they were betting on the 7.xx series which apparently blows Symbian 3.x out of the water. Symbian is also significantly behind Android as well. If I were Nokia, I would get out of the software business and stick to hardware. Since the OS is open source, it is a sunk cost anyway.
Actually, looking at Windows Mobile 7, I would say MSFT is a short. The OS is a generation behind Android/Apple. A day late and a dollar short.
WinMo7 can't even do basic tasks such as copy/paste or multi-tasking. And let's not forget that the current WinMo App Store has about 246 apps, compared with Apple's 200,000 apps.
The real fight is between GOOG and AAPL, which I would GOOG is probably a step ahead because it is a more open OS that has the developer momentum to crush AAPL. AAPL has always been a niche market, and it will always continue to be.
Go throught the videos I posted. The predictive ability transfer data obviates the need for cut and paste in many instances. Android 2.1 with HTC sense has the same features and I haven't really needed the cut and paste function in the 90 days since I've had my Evo.
In addition, iOS just got cut and paste laste year after 2 years. That definitely wasn't a reason to short Apple.
I agree that Google is probably the front runner for king of the hill in the medium term looking forward, but it has a tenuous grasp on that position for there is real deal competition out there and they are swinging for the fences.
Since no one actually browses or uses 200k apps, that feature is really meaningless. It is the number of quality apps that count, and that brings the number down signficantly. MSFT can be counted on for having some killer apps, ex. XBox live games in 3D, Zune Marketplace, Office 2010. So can Android with Google Voice, Docs, Maps, etc. Apple has a lot of good apps, but that number is thrown around carelessly.
After experiencing windows mobile 6.5 in a Samsung.......first and last for me. Android is the new buzzword. The software is even being written for non Android phones.
Regards.
REMEMBER that a court just recently found that it is legal to 'jailbreak' the Apple device. Agree the HTC is stunning and the new Windows 7 is a huge leap over the 6.5 or earlier mobile OS. As for Apple, am sure they will do all they can to clinch their fist tight on jailbreakers, as Apple is far worse than ANY company when it comes to enslaving their users/devices and those who generate apps. HTC is doing great and MSFT needs to come out strong on their upcoming Mobile 7 public launch.
I've always wondered who was buying those gadgets, we are getting older , we cannot see as good as before. Young guys are interested in music and SMS's. I would like to see somebody using "Office" on his phone, how productive it must be! Watch movies on your phone? You must be some kind of masochist to do that and then you have to think about price you pay for that unforgettable experience. I think only some technology geeks are buying those things to have the newest and sharpest thing in the universe. They cannot even solve basic problem that it is almost impossible to use your phone in bright daylight and then I should use it for my calculations or composing emails with Office!
Agree, 'the kids' love to text and listen to music. These new devices allows you to use it to watch movies not just on the built-in screen, many allow you to hook it to a TV to watch movies in very good to high resolution. Same with PPT presentations. This makes it easy to brings movies/presentations to a small mobile device. Agree Office productivity is challenging with such a small screen and internal keyboard, yet will admit to still using my far outdated HP Jornada as a basic data entry device on the go to then move files (using the memory card) to the main larger computer system.
Still, it is 'the kids' who will love the music and XBox features plus Twitter and other social network integration.
As for Apple, the kids are moving away from it due to certain device limits and the 'cool factor' has left. Bell bottom jeans were a fad at one time, too. How many of you wear them now?
The real paradigm shift will be when people start buying new things according to actual usefulness. Then we will see a market shakeout in many sectors. I predict this will happen soon, or sometime after that.
what the world needs is open API for mobile-phone/web-appliance OS.
nobody bought windows phones then, why should they buy them now?
and pal, nokia HAS cash, dunno if they will manage to spent it in a sensible way
I really wonder if people buy smartphones in order to run office apps, and if they do, how many
Actually, people did buy Windows phones, MSFT just messed up the execution.
They "may" buy them now because it is probably going to be one of the strongest platforms. Again, it all boils down to execution. That's the scary part, for MSFT seems to have lost its way. After looking at the new OS, it appears they may have found it. Time will tell, and not much time either.
Nokia doesn't have MSFT cash!
I'm sure people wondered in the past if other people bought phones to send text, take pictures, play videos, and engage in social networking sites as well. Things change my friend.
Reggie
Read my limited comments below. If Msoft will not address these real issues they will never get savy Apple or Nokia users to switch.
Shirley you jest.
What/when is the last successful consumer product MSFT had?
To begin with, my name isn't Shirley. I'm usually Frank and Earnest.
Xbox and their XBox live system (one of the top 3, and number one in the cloud), Microsoft Office (number one), Windows (number one), IE (number one).
Shirley you are not saying that MSFT cannot make a consumer product.
In addition, RIMM's real money is in the enterprise, and server product support and full integration into Office will hurt RIMM more than the others.
The guy who really gets hurt is Nokia. Crushed by Apple, RIM, Android, and now Microsoft at the high-end; margins and market share under attack by Mediatek-enabled players at the low-end. Maybe too late to short, but I dunno, what would Nokia look like with under 20% market share? What about under 15%?
Microsoft's issue with Windows Mobile 7 is that there is only like 5 or 6 guys licensed to make them. Samsung and LG are two of them, and while they have been great at cranking out feature phones, they continue to struggle with smartphones. Microsoft's mobile fate really lies in the hands of Motorola and HTC over the near term.
Among Chinese handset makers (who as a group will chip >400M mobile phones this year), none of them want anything to do with Microsoft. Way too expensive. Every last one of them is working on an Android phone.
RIM has a defensible franchise (doesn't mean they are not a short). Apple even more so. Microsoft is a new entrant and is likely to get squeezed between those two well established guys, and an onslaught of Android.
Still, the real losers are Nokia, followed by Samsung and LG.
Nokia is getting a VIA job. Intel crushed VIA in a delaware corporate kangaroo court.
Earnest, thanks for being Frank. -Shirley
When MSFT buys RIMM that short is gonna hurt.
Disclosure:All these toys will give you brain cancer.
Better chance of RIMM buying MSFT. Neither will happen.