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After A Huge Intraday Amplitude, A Divergence-less Day Closes On Muted Note
Today was a very abnormal day in stock trading. Abnormal, because despite the massive amplitude in the intraday swing (from 1,102 to 1,116) and the nearly unchanged close, none of the "free money" monkey business occurred: there were no divergences between either ES and AUDJPY or ES and the 10Y UST. This is quite surprising and rather troublesome as it marks possibly the first time this has occurred in several months. Is some semblance of normality creeping back in stocks, as even HFTs begin to get kicked out of the market due to margin erosion and cannibalization? If so, watch for valuations to eventually promptly catch up to fair values on the margin... far lower than prevailing price levels.
ES-10 Year
ES-AUDJPY
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It's the calm before the storm.
August is going to give a lot of folks some surprises.
Odd trading days everyday it seems, just odd for different reasons.
Can someone please clarify how Bots can be sidelined? Margin erosion and cannibalization?
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
I'm not even paying attention right now. I think this month was just bullshit and it's likely to escalate the first 2 weeks of next month. Somethings going to happen it's just when damnit.
Either the Masterbot just went into "kill mode" to totally give the other slave bots a butt fucking or some really big dog in the market decided that the fucking PPT wasn't gonna win this time. I seriously imagined PTJ yelling "offer 3000 at 100, there's more behind it", it was like a fucking hammer hitting down tiny PPT nails... Anyways, that was an intense fucking closing. Pardon the cursing, can't help myself right now. Too bad the stupid european (I'm one of them so I'm entitled to say it) retail investors (still in the market) and institutions will see this as the buying opportunity of a life time tomorrow.
Would this happen soon, like say in the next 15 minutes or is this something to expect tomorrow after ES shorts are marked to market?
Theres always very little activity after market close (well, really, after 1615) once the positions are closed out. Overnight is a good guess as to when its going to happen, but with such little volume in GLOBEX it doesnt really matter if futs are up or down overnight as we've seen many many reversals in the following months. Eg: 1002 low on S&P few weeks back which didnt even hit during the regular session.
Fuck
I couldn't put my finger on it but today felt strange... perhaps the invisable hand is resetting to a new method... look for new correlations ?
I mean look at the commodities and PM's, they went wild today. I agree, this was a seriously odd day. Question: Does somebody know something, even oil went against the market. War outbreak imminent?
Been outta the trading arena a long time. Capitulated and bought a few hundred shares of Husky Oil on the Canadian exchange. Pays a good dividend and is on a fire sale (had a poorer quarter than expected). I hope your right about war....$$
On the other hand, because I just went and bought something probably means the market will fall on it's ass tomorrow because I confused an algo with a human presence:(
Hope you succeed despite outcome. Funny that you should wind up on ZH if you've been out for so long?
Im actually in his position as well. Havent been 'out of it' long but stopped trading since last friday. Doesn't mean my interest in finance is over, but i just realized theres more to trying to pick the bottom, find the top, or sell premium cause the VIX tells me so.
These markets just arent worth (sh)it :)
I used to trade options quite a bit, but with markets being seriously messed up - it is difficult to make any bucks on that. So I'm parked in cash with a good weight in gold, waiting for things to crash - like we all are. However, we have been waiting since May 2009 for this event. Like Leo postulates, the powers that be will prevent market collapse at all cost....and he may be right about that in the short term. With oil corporations at 52 weeks lows, they seem like a good deal. Rhetoric from the middle east and korea seem like a potential powder keg for oil prices. A collapse in China on the other hand would not.
Agreed, an incredibly strange/eerie day!
I had to ring some people and tell them to seriously reduce positions today in anticipation of the numbers but also because of how the market took on a really weird personality, a little like a glitch in the matrix occurred as the black cat passed over my screen.
We shall see tomorrow, hoping I dont get calls back calling me licorice allsorts
big boys all positioned for a collapse perhaps?
Or starting to... Darn I'm posting a lot right now - Please don't kill me I'm not a trojan HFT!
The Treserve pump over the last week has been at preemptive attack on shorts (i.e. market realists) in prep for the rotten GDP number (no matter what BEA reports, since it will be revised down 2 times before the Nov election). THEY know the number. The Zandi-Blinder report on TARP was another preemptive round, as was the speech by STL Fed's James Bullard (an implicit rationale for QE2).
Liesman and the CNBS team will go on IV amphetimines Fri 6am in prep for the GDP spin job that will make last weeks Euro stress test hype look amateurish. They have a straight-jacket and barbituates ready for Santelli.
+100, haha, I had to look up barbiturates in the dictionary!
Generally agree, but I think the first look number will be roughly as expected. By the time they inevitably revise it down twice it will be far below expectations.
The Treserve pump over the last week has been at preemptive attack on shorts..
Short People got no reason
Short People got no reason
Short People got no reason
To live
They got little hands
Little eyes
They walk around
Tellin' great big lies
They got little noses
And tiny little teeth
They wear platform shoes
On their nasty little feet
Well, I don't want no Short People
Don't want no Short People
Don't want no Short People
`Round here
Short People are just the same
As you and I
(A Fool Such As I)
All men are brothers
Until the day they die
(It's A Wonderful World)
Short People got nobody
Short People got nobody
Short People got nobody
To love
They got little baby legs
More lyrics: http://www.lyricsfreak.com/r/randy+newman/#shareThat stand so low
You got to pick 'em up
Just to say hello
They got little cars
That got beep, beep, beep
They got little voices
Goin' peep, peep, peep
They got grubby little fingers
And dirty little minds
They're gonna get you every time
Well, I don't want no Short People
Don't want no Short People
Don't want no Short People
'Round here
Great 2 minutes to open and I'm holding on to shit. I guess I might as well dump it and go to bed early and prepare to double up on the short side. Unless anyone has any better suggestions (that don't involve gold)?
C'mon save me money and I'll buy a ZeroHedge Coffee Cup!
Everyone is waiting for the GDP report tomorrow. It will either be the beginning of the end that even the pumpers can't deny...or, a reason to surge. I am gonna guess and say GDP comes in at 2.3. .2 percentage points short....
A couple of stocks dryhumped today:
I was tempted to flag as junk since his junk is...uh....up like Goldman's stick...I mean stock.
Robo, where the hell do you get these pictures?
Seriously, whomever flagged this as junk, might i recommend a more PC site (see cnbc.com - lots of pure bullshit, no clever writing, or amusing pics:in other words perfect for you).
Robo, this picture has made me laugh all afternoon. Thanks.
Yo, Robo, dogg,
you got any pitcures of anna chapman and her hamptons idylls.........................
Mmmm, no comment on the picture...
But about GS and POT, they are both on this week's CBOE Weeklys. Some call writers is set to lose big, unless they can slam it down tomorrow (on GDP, maybe).
GS is on the next week's Weeklys list, but not POT. DNDN, GE, PFE, and RIG will join the regulars.
In regards to today's close, after the bottom fell out this morning it seemed the algo/bots creeped the market up in anticipation of the EOD shove up. You have to wonder what their little semantic brains will learn from a drop at the close and how they will react to it tomorrow.
GS is somewhat unusual - up 5 bucks on fairly good vol with an open gap above. someone anticipating they will profit from whatever is lurking around the corner?
I like the tags
"Free money" and "Monkey business"
it's a meatgrinder market chewing up both bulls and bears that hold longer than a few hours. overnight risk is too much for many traders. about the only strategy that works is finding a momentum move for a few hours, and then out.
there was a huge divergence between EURJPY and CL.
Anyone think that maybe they turned off the bots after the Flash Crash?
Mid February to mid April we had the indexes trapped in a mind numbing straightjacket range, then the FC and now we have actual swings that are fun and profitable to trade.
The Flash Crash could have been the best thing to happen to swing trading since real time charting.
Here's my spin on it. Political-economic loyalties are beginning to shift...as elections get closer.
Maybe TBTF no likey the PPT anymore? Maybe we no longer make good news for equities? A very simple way to engineer the election results you prefer. BO & Company is not making many friends these days.
I think there's a lot of big hedge funds that were short and bumped out last week repositioning for the next big downdraft. The GDP number should be BAD, but they will tweak it with some positive adjustments for the good of the democratic party. Check out www.Consumerindexes.com for their real time take on what GDP should be.
Wanted an updated version of this chart but did instead find a recent interview http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2010/07/beware-bureau-of-economic-a...
Still holding. Got OEX Aug 505 Puts waiting for more red.
Guess I'll find out, eh?
Global GDP data. Courtesy The Collective:
http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb-wdi&met=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&idim=country:USA&dl=en&hl=en&q=GDP
check your aud/jpy right now!
The HFT computer operators now work night shifts, just look at the second chart between 1600 and next day US open. So hedge funds are either
a) cutting cost, cheaper to find cheap (but dumb) hedgies, send them to Asia; they just need someone to flick the bods' power switches on when Asia opens and off when US opens, or/and
b) shifting to Asia to evade US and European taxes; but it's just a question of time before the EU/US come after these asian countries for abetting tax evasion, the way they did to Luxembourg and Switzerland and all the Caribean islands
who cares.
when a algo cuts a position from long to short what are you gonna do? cry? hedge that ride down. should see a lot long pos cut now pre/post us gdp, china pmi
Max Keiser on Robo Trades
"In this new rigged market capitalist model, the corrupt bank picks the price it wants a security to trade at and the computers buy and sell with each other until that price is reached; thus providing an audit trail of trades that looks on the surface like actual price discovery."
http://maxkeiser.com/2010/07/27/max-keiser-the-market-is-a-hologram-masking-deflation/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Maxkeisercom+%28maxkeiser.com%29
Bing!! Another carny trick they use, especially on lower volume stocks, is to dangle price, ID the trader(s) and move away from discovery.