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After Several Weak Auctions In A Row, Here Is How Today's Critical 30 Year Issuance Is Shaping Up

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With today's POMO schedule coming at 2pm, the brigade of Fed Prime Broker front-runners will feel dazed and confused around 1pm as they will have no idea how promptly after the auction they will be able to do their unconstitutional duty of buying Treasuries then flipping them right back to the Fed. And the last thing the long-end needs now is further uncertainty. As Morgan Stanley's Igor Cashyn demonstrates, the October 30Y auction had some of the weakest metrics in a year, and with foreign tensions escalating, if China wanted to "teach" the US a lesson, today would be the perfect time to do it (which would be contradictory to yesterday's record indirect take down of the 10 Year). Still, with the 30 Year yield surging, the dynamics of today's auction will be a major harbinger of things to come vis-a-vis demand for this orphaned sector of the yield curve.

From Igor Cashyn:

Chart of the Month – In October, the 30y auction was by far the weakest, tailing 3.2bp from its 1PM yields – the largest tail since Nov09. The underlying sponsorship statistics were weak, with a low bid-to-cover of 2.49x (vs. 2.73x in September and 2.68x 1y re-opening average) and indirect bidders taking down only 32% (vs. 36% in September and 40% 1y re-opening average). Net of the 9% taken down by direct bidders, dealers were left with 59%, which is significantly above the 1-year re-opening average of 48%.

And general commentary from Cashyn on increasingly weak auction action.

Auction demand breakdown: Foreign demand declined across the curve in October, notably led by the front-end where yields have fallen to historical lows. Of these, the 3y foreign allocation declined the most to just 11%, where before this point was a favorite among foreign investors (where foreign demand is now highest for the 10y point). Domestic demand offset some of the foreign declines in the front end, but declined somewhat for the 7y, 10y and 30y auctions.

Auction stop-outs vs. yields: The October auctions were generally weak across the curve with only the 7y auction stopping 1.5bp through its 1PM levels. Meanwhile, the 3y, 5y, 10y and 30y tailed 0.9bp, 1.3bp, 0.5bp and 3.2bp, respectively (2y was on the screws). The decline in  foreign demand across the curve along with the decline in domestic demand in the back-end of the curve contributed to the weak October auctions ahead of FOMC.

Auction statistics: The broader theme for the October auction was that we saw the return of yield concessions going into the auctions, after months of yields rallying right into the auctions.

Macro auction data: Updated through October, foreign demand in Treasury auctions continues to be greatest for the 3y at 31% YTD (vs. 34% in 2009) – although it has been slipping recently, while falling off the most for the 7y to 26% YTD (vs. 37% in 2009). TIPS auction participation
remains at 14% YTD (vs. 14% in 2009).

 

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Wed, 11/10/2010 - 12:07 | 716484 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Good to know. I'll keep an eye out.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 12:08 | 716491 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

If necessary, the Fed will engineer a mini "flash crash" in stocks in order to get everyone to stampede back into dollars and U.S. Treasuries.

Works every time.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 12:10 | 716504 Dadoomsayer
Dadoomsayer's picture

I've noticed the exact same thing.  I  was thinking the market would be weaker due to the fed trying to flood people into the 30 year auction.

 

Even with equities down, it appears that there won't be much interest in bonds.  New mutli-month low yesterday in the 30.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 12:16 | 716533 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Stampeding fools and their money will soon be parted. Actually its amazing the fools playing this manipulation scheme ever had their money to begin with.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 12:17 | 716539 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

hi robo, i just want to let you know i miss your column. i liked the girlie pictures you use to post. now it seems like you have been relegated to just a commenter who can post graphics. it seems that william has taken over you and cheeky's space at the top bar. he is very very good emerging artist and mind. but he is very straight and never even curses (that is not really the word i wanted to use but forgot how to spell cusses). never using bad words or referencing derogatory body parts. but suppose there is a reason for changing of the guard.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 12:11 | 716505 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

So the real question is how many bps would it take?  30?

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 12:46 | 716655 knukles
knukles's picture

At some point it will take a mere hiccup in world events to create another run to long term treasuries.  Fictionally fixed Europe falling apart again (Sounds like the start of a song, eh?) increased trade or FX tensions, doesn't matter, as the low growth deflation trade comes back on.  And maybe a 5% long bond?  T'would look pretty handy with next to zero inflation and all other markets being "manipulated."

Could be a nice pop somewhere ahead for "risk free" long duration income oriented assets. 

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 13:43 | 716876 docj
docj's picture

It will go off without a hitch.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 14:04 | 716944 Fanatic
Fanatic's picture

2.31 bid to cover. Santelli gives it a D minus.

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